[ENG] Una Matrioska de burbujas?

[FMA]

Greetings everybody,

I must first excuse myself because I don’t speak Spanish and therefore I hope everyone to understand and have grace on me. I really wish that someone could help me, indifferently from the language we’d use. My name is Fabrizio and I’m an Italian student of Architecture, currently in Erasmus (someone could say “during the crisis?” whereas I would say “because of the crisis”) in Germany. Yes, Germany, and that’s the motivation for which I opened this post. Obeying to their strict sense of research and inquiry, German people, and particularly academics, have given themselves the task to map the crisis and to understand its dynamics. I was given the task to ‘map’ the crisis of Spain, even though in Italy there’s a strong crisis as well, although it’s deeper into the differences in the Country and also caused by the substantial fractures that have always, from the end of the last war (…) made Italy a contradictory and by traits difficult Country to understand at all (even for its citizens).
Since in the KIT (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, in Baden-Wüttemberg, one of the richest Bundesländer of Germany, apart from Bavaria) there are different Spanish students who came here for the Erasmus and then decided to remain here as normal students (also given the fact that here taxes for the University are not paid and higher education is free through an admission test), I actually decided to interview some of them (naturally, in an anonymous form) to understand how they perceived this event and how by their opinion is this crisis born.
From this first survey, I have to say that I’ve recollected interesting information, but the problem is that many of them were from Catalunya and therefore blaming the central government of Spain to be a money-sucker and at the same time to provide no Basque-Country-similar solution for the taxes incomes. I also collected all the information and the documentation which Internet could provide, but even if the speculation mechanism of the crisis was clear at start, I believe that something was missing. Given the fact that in internet is easy to find different theories about the crisis and that is very difficult to discern between pure theories and proven ones, I would like to ask you (whom forum was suggested from a Spanish friend of mine, who actually came from Romania to work in Spain and to graduate there in Architecture) how do you perceive the crisis in Spain and the causes of its occurrence, even if I would like to be extremely clear about some points:
1-   I believe that, whenever there’s someone who studies the crisis, at the same time there has to be someone who suffers it in a very strong and desperate way, so I understand that while I’m involved in this “intellectual” work, someone could really be upset for the fact that her/his life is not considered as a story but like data to manage in a paper and most important that the lives of pepole with different and hard problems are used like asectic data; I actually don’t want this. Even if this is the intent of the Course in which I participate (and how could it be different?), I want to understand how is the life in a crisis because, as Italian student and immigrant (yes, we are in the EU, but this doesn’t change to the eyes of German people, who clearly see us as the new immigrants wave escaping from disastrous policies in our respective Countries) I’m very afraid about my future life and work, and I would really like to try to understand the crisis and search to avoid its worst effects (not certainly all of them, of which I was already hit) and maybe to try to find a solution for the catastrophic scenarios coming from different voices;
2-   Given the first point, probably you have already extensively discussed about this matter in a great number of threads (and there come again my excuses, because I can’t understand them properly, even though Italian seems a little similar to Spanish, certainly it’s not enough to understand wholly what written) and there are different positions and a certain number of  thesis about the crisis, as well as different situations in the Spanish Regions. This is not a problem; since I think that everyone has the right to sustain her/his proper theory with serious argumentations to make clear to others how their own life has changed dramatically during the crisis. I’m interested in every proposition which is proven by facts and in every position sustained by experience.
3-   As a consequence of this, I’m not here to judge or to criticize anyone, actually I will probably, in the discussion (if any), ask questions which will sound stupid or naïve for you. This is just to understand what is objectively happened.
4-   One of the first questions I always ask myself is about the continuous re-appearing of the crisis: how could the crisis always happen and no one forecasted it, or better, no one tried to convince the others not to prosecute the always-same direction and then everyone periodically (but always deeper on the skin of society) her/his own job? How can it be possible that this happens every 20/30 years and no one tries to stop this continuous 'empasse'?
5-   Another question, really important for me as a student of Architecture: how can it be possible that in one State people are completely jobless and desperate and just few kilometers away from the border, or maybe few hundreds of kilometers away, there’s the aim, a sort of paradise (even if I could say it’s not properlylike that, particularly for immigrants) where there’s work and money to spend in constructions and consume products. Is it only because it’s another Country with another politics? If it is so, has the land no impact on people? There are really no physical frontiers anymore?
The phrase "No hay Hombre sin tierra ni tierra sin hombres" is no more 'working'?

I would really be glad if someone accepted to help me in this attempt to understand how this happens and as well to discuss together about how can or, for whom has already started, is the crisis to be resolved.

Thank you for every help you would give,

_f

[pollo]

It's a shame that you don't understand Spanish, because the info and discussions here would be very valuable for you... Maybe using Google translate or a similar service could help you to understand the topics in a general way.
You are at the mercy of the (ever shrinking) posters' free time and good will. Even thought in this forum more (Spanish) people than usual understand English, not everyone is comfortable enough to use it.

[NosTrasladamus]

Dear FMA: Thanks for your interest in this forum. I will try to explain my view of the so-called "crisis" that, I think, agrees with those of some members of the forum (but not all, and, does not represent, by any means, any "official" view by the forum, which is quite heterogeneous).

The spanish crisis stems from deep-rooted imbalances both in the economic and political structures of the country, whose elites have formed a collusive system in which the national financial elites, the entrepreneurial elites, the media and the political elites have developed many intervowen interests and dependencies and have played every trick in the book to protect each other. In my view, the crisis has been produced by the collusion, cronyism and corruption of an improductive, extractive and long-time entrenched establishment.

The spanish economy has been largely dominated by a relatively reduced group of wealthy families since the times of the dictatorship (1939-1977) and even before. The economic structure of the country had been largely backwards, based primarily on agriculture, and with the land, in most parts of the country, specially in the center and south, organized in unproductive latifunds in the hands of a few rich noble landlords. As far as the beggining of the XX century, there was little industrial activity, the "industrial revolution" never really took place in the country and many of the industrial developments and industrial business in the country were started and lead by foreigners.

After the civil war, the side that won was the conservative side defending the privileges of the established wealthy, the nobility and the church, and, after the axis -of which general Franco was a staunch ally- lost the II world war, the country entered a period of both cultural and economic isolation.

However, as a strategy for survival, the general's Franco anti-communist regime entered a period of "aperture" and allied with the U.S.A., in the context of the cold war, this way, it became an strategic tool for the U.S.A., wich established military bases that allowed for the landing and refuelling of the  U.S. airforce and strategic command. This also led to economic agreements opened the spanish market for the import of U.S. products and the establishment of branches of U.S. companies. In the early 60's the spanish regime started a process that was called "desarrollismo" ("developism") in an attempt to modernize its backward economy, and started to timidly improve its infrastructures in an attempt to attract external investments and currency, both by allowing foreign multinationals to establish factories and benefit from spanish cheap and tame labour force and by attracting foreign tourists from richer western countries in what was sold as the "sun and beach" formula.

During this time there was a first "boom" of the real state and building business: Both to accomodate the growing cheap workforce for the new industries that migrated from the empoverished rural areas to the cities and also due to the explosion of tourism-oriented developments in the coast (that lead to ultimately destroying the coast and its environment by the sheer urbanistic pressure that resulted)

In the decades that followed, both the bulding business and the tourist-services oriented sector consolidated as the two main economic drivers of the country. By contrast, genuine industrial developments were crushed either by the regime's incompetence and colliding interests or either by the overwhelming competition of the established multinational players: It is notable the case of the automotive industry, once a powerful industrial sector in the country's economy with manufacturers such as Derbi, Montesa, Ossa, Ebro, Barreiros, Pegaso or Seat, every single of them either shut down or bought up by competing multinationals in the early 80's.

With this background during the dictatorship, it is important to take into account the political background that stemmed after the dictatorship and with the so-called "democratic transition": The elites did everything in their hand to avoid any changes that could pose a risk for their interests and dominant position in the country. It's true that a new constitution was written, although almost "in secret" and with no proper consittuent process, and it is true that elections were held, but the electoral system was devised to make sure that only "moderate" parties could be elected. Moreover there was no effective separation of powers (the executive and legislative always was the same and controlled the judiciary) and both the police and the judiciary remained pretty much the same structures, people and mindset as those of the old dictatorial regime. All this, soon, gave way to a system in which only two big mainstream parties could win elections.

These two main parties (PSOE and PP) were soon courted by the bankers, builders and financial moguls of the country: In a corruption scheme that up to the current day basically consist in that the bankers and builders financing almost "for free" the political campaigns of the big political parties, which, in turn, pass laws that benefit and protect the bankers and the builders bests interests.

During the 80 and 90's, with few exceptions, the same affluent families of the old times of dictatorship were still dominating the biggest economic resources of the country, and the new "democratically elected" leaders played more and more in their favor. Several laws were passed that benefitted the speculative use of the land and households. In the 1980's the "Boyer" law under the PSOE and in the 1990's the "land liberalization act" law under the PP.

Here ends the "part one" of my long explanation of the spanish "crisis", I have, so to say, established the "historical background" that led to the explosion of the biggest housing bubble we have known, and that has been caused by both a deeply unbalanced economic structure, mainly based on tourism and real-state development fueled by credit in the benefit banking institutions, a process that has been facilitated by the sheer corruption of the politicians by the dominant economic players: the bankers and big builders entrepreneurial elite.

While you wait for my second "chapter" (and the criticism that it will no doubt receive from other members of the forum) you can watch a quite smart summary of the conception of the housing bubble in this smart animated movie that is very well known in Spain, and that maybe could be used as a "light" or "casual" preface in your presentation of the subject:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWrbAmtZuGc

I add these references: They are in spanish but maybe thew would prove useful for further research by other scholars who are fluent in spanish in your university/department:

http://pendientedemigracion.ucm.es/info/ec/ecocri/cas/santos_castroviejo.pdf

http://revistas.ucm.es/index.php/CHCO/article/view/CHCO0808110057A

http://revistas.ucm.es/index.php/CHCO/article/download/CHCO0808110057A/6725

http://www.traficantes.net/index.php/content/download/24340/233375/file/findecicloweb2.pdf

[FMA]

Thank you both for the answers;

I would like to say that I've really appreciated the history of the crisis provided by NosTrasladamus, and give him my deep thanks also for the links provided.
The depicted facts conform themself with the version I could summarize from the documentation we've collected during the research of our group for the mapping of the Spanish crisis.
But here some questions I pose not  for the sake of my research, but because these are the same question I had when I came to similar conclusions:

- Why do you think the great industrial compounds have been shut down and not, in the evenience of the contrary, developed as to make the economy of Spain even more strong? It's because this very powerful families you've spoken about were afraid of the conflicting interests which would have  been possibily generated with their power or wealth if they had developed the Industrial sector of the country?

- Do you think that foreign Multinationals eventually would have taken the place of these families, trying to indulge and maybe extend their consume market in Spain without them ruling the politics, whereas surely in the other they had to corrupt in a certain way the dominating society and therefore have been not capable to access directly the mid-class market?

- And why the immobiliar crisis? If the model has continued for so much time in the History, what has been possibly happened to these dominating families that has forced them to change their model of exploitation of Spain into a more drastic and dramatically speculation? Or maybe this is only the expected result that no one, even these families, could avoid at the end? If so, are they making their profit in another way?

- Do you think that the private industrial sector of Spain and the public were, during the democratic transition, in some way connected, and maybe, for the problem you described, they were just swapping positions between themselves and established a secure bond between the public of the state-industry model and the private multinational system?

- And, the one which interests me most... Who are these families? Who are these people, and why no one does anything (even though this could be the usual question of someone who should do himself something) to de-establish them? Are they connected with the Monarchy?

I've already heard about the fact that in every country (or maybe for every country) there has to be a small group of power pushing histroy in their favoured direction. If it's so, how generally they became so powerful?

_f

[Маркс]

FMA welcome and congratulations, Nostradamus. A historical overview of the most successful.

I am unable to answer your questions, my English is poor. Please explain population-level cultural gaps and especially the Franco legacy in our institutions.

[R.G.C.I.M.]

FMA;
 maybe might help you a bit if you read and/or translate (google will do) the letter of introduction for the forum?
You might find it here AND at the T.E. blog.
Its sort of generalistic and full of wishes too, but tries to summarize our internal crisis inside the european and global as sort of a "tale".
Hope it helps a bit.
Pitty youre not fond of spanish, as this site would be great to pulse most advanced analysis you can grasp in Spain nowadays. Long hours nevertheless, but if you have the time, i encourage you to integrate yourself around. It might change your research, and maybe, as to most of us did, your life too.

Benvenuto fratello.

[NosTrasladamus]

Thanks again for your interest, FMA, and sorry for my rushed english.
I will try to continue with my explanation and afterwards will try to answer your questions.

Ok, so this is the background for the current housing bubble that has lead to the financial crisis and collapse: An unbalanced economy with a very weak industrial sector. An entrenched and ultra-conservative oligarchy long-accustomed to living the high life out of extracting rents of the property of the land and real state. This elite survived through the "democratic transition" process and kept their dominant position and stranglehold of the economic resources of the country pretty much intact. Then, a weak democratic system with many shortcomings - specially lack of separation of powers- which leads to a) a political elite that was composed in high percentage by heirs of the old-regime politicians with strong bonds with the established oligarchy, thus, very prone to corruption, and b) a very weak position with regards to foreign western powers, specially the U.S.A. (of which the spanish regime was a puppet) and then, the European Union.

Enter the 1973 oil crisis: It hit very hard the weak spanish economy. Due to the fact that the spanish economy was totally dependent of foreign oil, it costed dear to the country. The currency was devaluated several times and oil and energy prices skyrocketed. The industrial sector was deeply affected and unemployment rose to historical levels and never recovered. We acquired what is known as "structural unemployment" which was a very useful mechanism for the oligarchy to keep salaries low and disrupt any kind of renaissance of effective labor organization/fight. The effects of the '73 crisis were felt in Spain until the middle 80's.

Nevertheless, by that time, a household of four -couple with two kids- could be rose by a single family working member, mortgages for flats in buildings of apartments (the characteristic typology of urban development and the standard accomodation for the "middle class" -I'll get into the concept of "middle class" later- and working class that arose from "developism", in contrast to decent detached houses in more developed western countries, and which in this forum and elsewhere have received the ilustrative epithet of "zulo" or "hiding hole" -cage à lapin en français-) were tipically paid in a 10 to 15 years time lapse.

At the 80's the European Economic Union (UEE) was transforming to become the EU, and spanish politicians wanted Spain to become a full-rights member AT ANY PRICE. So they did a lot of concessions in order to be quickly accepted in the "european club". Do you remember that I stated that our political system was very weak? This proved to be true when faced with the negotiations for entering the "european club". Our politicians accepted basically to dismantle all the heavy industry like steel mills and shipyards  -and stop any subsidy to our agriculture producers in order to be swiftly admitted into the "European Common Market", all of which exacerbated the unemployment problem, biased the economy further towards low-prodictivity activities and further weakened the industrial sector, this was, no doubt, good news for the foreign industries and producers because this way, they avoided competition by an "outsider" country with low wages. Instead, foreign industries kept de-localizing their production into Spain, thus for example, Volkswagen (they bought up SEAT) or Renault either bought auxiliary factories or kept others running to benefit from low-wages and a very little organized, tamed workforce.

With the admittance of Spain in the European Union two phenomena developed: First, the availability of the "cohesion funds" devised to provide with aid to those countries less well developed in order to allow them to improve their economies. Second: The creation of the Euro.
Because of the corrupt and incapable spanish oligarchy, both things were put into work in a way that worked against its purpose. For one, the cohesion funds led to ill-investments and were used in many cases to finance unnecesary or over-budgeted public works (wich beneffited the building companies, again, the oligarchy) or for fraudulent "capacitation programs" for workers and unemployed -remember:unemployment is structural in Spain and it is kept so as a tool for the oligarchy-, through low-quality or even inexistent formation courses, managed either by small "academies" founded ad-hoc by friends of regional or local politicians in order to get the funds or funelled towards the two big "tamed" worker unions in order to keep them happy and silent.

The adoption of the Euro and the abandonment of the old peseta had a different effect: In order to exchange the currencies, many fraudsters keeping big quantities of undeclared pesetas had to launder them, leading to a big wave of cash expending, typically in cars or either in real estate. In fact, it was famous during the height of the housing bubble, the fact that a big part of the payment for property was required by the sellers to be made in undeclared money in what is euphemistically called "payments in "B" money" as a way of getting extra money without having to declare it to the Treasury/Tax authorities. It has also been discussed extensively in this forum the connections between the building industry and the organized crime, both in the Costa del Sol and elsewhere.

So we have this big influx of funds from the EU entering the country and getting into the building business, easy money with big profits. Meanwhile, the low salaries were artificially compensated by an enormous extension of high-risk easy credit by both the private banks, and the public savings banks (contolled by politicians), already in 2006 some technical staff of the Spanish Central Bank and the Treasury sounded the alarms but the executives and politicians didn't want to hear nor do anything about it. The oligarchs new source of wealth had become the extraction of rents out of one of the basic necessities of the population: the need for housing. Moreover, the mortgage laws in the country overprotected the bankers, keeping the obligation of the debtor to repay any possible remnant of the debt even if the property was foreclosed. Prices of flats reached a point in which it was necessary that both members of a couple, working at the same time paid more than 35% of their total income during more than 30 years in order to re-pay the mortgage. Politicians and many spokepersons of both the banking and real state businesses refused loudly to admit any regulation passed that could put a limit to housing prices or to the level of indebtedness.

And this lead to the current situation, which I will elaborate further and also will try to answer some of the questions you ask in another post.

[NosTrasladamus]

I will reply to your last question first, as it's easily summarized by some graphics we have already posted and discussed in the forum:

- And, the one which interests me most... Who are these families? Who are these people, and why no one does anything (even though this could be the usual question of someone who should do himself something) to de-establish them? Are they connected with the Monarchy?

Here you have a rough graphic (a little outdated) of the small elite of families that control the biggest companies in the spanish stock exchange. Curiously enough, the most powerful spanish companies are either ex-state owned monopolies (like energy or telecom), privatized and put in the hands of friends of former government members, or banks or construction/real estate companies.



Information with respect to monarchy involvement on private businesses, or for that matter, any piece of negative information about the monarchy is taboo, and has been, up to very recent times, systematically censored in the country, as the media are controlled and property of the same families of the oligarchs, and in many cases, like the broadcasts radio stations and TV operate under licenses handed by politicians with connections and intervowen interests with the oligarchy.

There is also another concerning pattern: the ties between politicians and oligarchs, and the fact that, after serving the public, many high profile politicians end up sitting in high profile seats of big companies that they have beneffited during their terms as public servants:

[R.G.C.I.M.]

Found it.
Its a bit long.
And has certain remaks and tone that doesnt fit, as well as gammar and spelling mistakes. And not exquisite literary style either.
But as a summary, i think can be usefull.

Hope you get something out of it.

Quizás es muy largo. Quizás esperaban otra cosa. Es todo corregible, modificable, anulable, repetible.
Sean condescendientes, Es mi primer borrador.

Tochazo king size:




"“Dios te libre de vivir tiempos interesantes”.

Pues nos ha tocado la china. Del mejor modo posible voy a intentar transmitir una síntesis de todo aquello trabajado conjuntamente por todos nosotros en cuanto a la situación, causas, evolución y potenciales rumbos de la misma.
Perdónenme la falta de todo lo que manque, que será mucho en contenido, estructura y claridad de exposición.

Según Kondatief, se dan crisis estructurales en ondas de aproximadamente 80 años. Es bastante claro que estamos en una de ellas. Desde el año 2007, diversos autores la compararon sucesivamente con la del 01, 73, 29, y ya han llegado a la del 68 del Siglo XIX.
Hemos entrado en el Invierno económico. Debemos asimilar que esta crisis es ESTRUCTURAL. Para nosotros eso es indiscutible.Ello conlleva condicionantes no sólo económicos sino demográficos y sociológicos.

A nivel mundial, nos hallamos en un realineamiento de las potencias y jugadores globales. Se realinean los actores, su peso específico, y sus alianzas.
El liderazgo indiscutido de los US se resquebraja. Asia entra en el dibujo de lleno, tras 25 años de preparación.
Durante estos años, el modelo dominante de moneda fiduciaria con patrón $ NO convertible en oro, ha cumplido su función, y se ha agotado. Simultáneamente, EU se ha integrado social y económicamente, y ha ganado escala preparándose para el nuevo sistema.
Las economías de escala serán claves para competir en el nuevo escenario. Europa perdió en el último Siglo la capacidad de competir con ventaja de valor añadido tecnológico. A igualdad de teconología, la escala prima.
Parece claro que los grandes bloques van a ser EU, US, CHN; con aliados varios y zonas de influencia.
Vislumbramos por cuestiones de eficiencia económica y energética un aumento de comercio INTRAzonas monetarias y una disminución del global INTERzonas. Lo que conllevará la ralentización del proceso deslocalizador industrial y la reasignación de los roles en cuanto a ventajas competitivas dentro de cada zona.

Por otra parte, la moneda de reserva y comercio internacional única, dará paso a una cesta de divisas que reflejen el peso específico de cada área en el total. Algo similar a lo que fue el ECU en su momento. El DEG (Derecho Especial de Giro) es el candidato.
Ello implica la retirada parcial del excedente de $ mundial (que proporcionó un poder de expansión monetaria brutal a los US y les permitió, y permite, siendo respaldada no más que por la confianza, generar déficits crónicos gigantescos financiados por el resto del mundo). Deteminados movimientos en Oriente Medio se explican por ello.
El desacoplamiento mundial del $ es un proceso complejísimo y doloroso, entre otras causas por el tipo “equilibrio de Nash” de situaciones que se dan entre los poseedores de $.
Dado el brutal superavit comercial de CHN con US, CHN es el principal interesado en que ese desacoplamiento sea paulatino, dado el peligroso equilibrio en que se encuentra.
Eso explica el esquizofrénico comportamiento entre ambas potencias.
A su vez, CHN ha tomado posiciones globales para garantizarse suministros de materias primas necesarias en su nuevo rol. Fundamentalmente en Africa y Sudamérica, que parece que seguirán manteniendo su rol de proveedores de MP para el resto de los bloques dominantes.

Debido a su estructura social y productiva, y al agotamiento de la expansión de Deuda de los bloques occidentales, el nuevo equilibrio será DEFLACIONARIO.

Esta circunstancia es la que más hace sufrir a EU, y particularmente a los países más inflacionistas por cultura, historia y estructura económica, entre ellos especialmente a España.

Dado que el nuevo equilibrio es deflacionario respecto de Occidente, tanto US como EU deben deflacionar. Para ello es necesario liberar las estructuras económicas de ineficiencias acumuladas históricamente, y posibles por su antigua situación competitivamente ventajosa. Ya no existe margen para ellas.
EU particularmente, debido al extenso sistema de protección social establecido desde el Siglo XX, particularmente post IIGM, en el llamado Estado del Bienestar.

Los US aún tienen margen para jugar a inflacionar y devaluar gradualmente en sucesivas etapas gracias a su posición aún de EMISOR de la moneda de referencia mundial, y a la cantidad de $ en posesión del resto del mundo. Por ello la FED puede permitirse los QE, que hacen su estrategia menos dolorosa internamente.

EU NO tiene esa posibilidad.
La economía central representada en la BLUE BANANA, y el país locomotora (GER), tanto por experiencias históricas, como por el proceso reciente de unificación, es vehementemente ANTIINFLACIONISTA. Tienen cutura de moneda fuerte. Pero, además de una cuestión histórica y cultural, es una cuestión estratégica. Nadie va a financiar los excesos de liquidez fuera de la EU mientras el € no sea moneda de intercambio internacional.

Siendo esa la situación, la estrategia de EU es clara. Sus problemas son fundamentalente internos. La mayor parte de la deuda de los países EU es con otros miembros EU, lo cual hace el problema muchísimo más manejable, dado que el BCE tiene el popder EMISOR de la moneda en la que están referenciadas las deudas de sus miembros.

El €, debido a su diseño “sobre la marcha”, no propugnó la necesaria unificación fiscal para evitar los desequilibrios que se han acabado produciendo. Por otra parte, puede discutirse si ello fue una trampa precisamente para llegar al punto en que los jugadores estuvieran tan entrampados entre sí, que tuvieran que acceder necesariamente a la armonización fiscal y “federalización” continental; o únicamente ha sido una consecuencia fortuita del cortoplacismo político incentivado en nuestros sistemas políticos.
Lo que es indiscutible es que la situación y única salida es la federalización. Y, es indiscutible también, que ello es de nuevo la única salida para que EU pueda competir con fortaleza en el nuevo sistema global, por la escala que le dota.
Ha habido un proceso de acumulación capitalista paneuropeo.


Parece que entramos en una dinámica de destrucción creativa shumpeteriana, pero aún estamos en la destrucción. La creación no se podrá dar hasta que termine lo anterior. Y esa destrucción no puede ser rápida por todas las razones antes mencionadas. Nosotros creemos en cualquier caso, que puede y debe ser más rápida de lo que lo está siendo. Particularmente en España. Pero la ecuación de intereses general lo está impidiendo. En ello andamos.

Es indiscutible también, que debido al crecimiento económico y demográfico, fundamentalmente de los nuevos jugadores, la presión sobre los recursos, particularmente energéticos, ha subido y va a subir mucho. Cientos de millones de humanos necesitarán acceder a nuevos estándares de vida. Calefacción, vivienda, atención médica, transportes, comida…
No tenemos derecho a negárselo porque ello implique que nuestra cuota disminuya.
Sólo mencionaremos 4 cuestiones para pensar en ello: Petróleo, Fukushima, Desertec y el agua potable.

Existen opiniones con visiones malthusianas y otros que creen en el potencial crecimiento infinito a través del desplazamiento de la curva de oferta por la tecnología. Yo soy de los segundos. Pero ello no implica en absoluto no fijar prioridad en la EFICIENCIA.


Y ahora, entramos en lo particular y cercano: España.
Sí, esto es un marasmo. Hay miedo. Vamos a sufrir mucho más aún. Pero saldremos. Mejores. O eso es lo que queremos la mayoría.
Nos ha tocado una de las peores posiciones para esta crisis. La TRANSICIÓN ESTRUCTURAL ante la que se encuentra el mundo, es y va a ser para nosotros PARTICULARMENTE DURA.
Aprovechemos el mal trago para hacer limpieza; que nos sirva de algo.

¿Cómo hemos llegado aquí?
La respuesta es muy compleja, pero todo se explica muy bien si el entro lo enfocamos en nuestra inconmensurable BURBUJA INMOBILIARIA.
Podemos encontrar responsabilidades exteriores, fundamentalmente, además de en el mencionado diseño del €, en el regulador y las políticas expansivas de las economías centrales inmediatamente antes de la entrada del €, debido al estancamiento económico que sufrían allás por el 2000 (incumplimiento de Maastrich). Parece ser que el exeso de liquidez fue desviado a los nuevos países del Sur EU, que recién incorporados al €, se deslumbraron por el dinero barato procedente del Centro, y en moneda FUERTE, según designios alemanes.  Existe un claroscuro respecto a si esa liquidez realmente era “ahorro” de la productividad central o era estímulo inflacionista, no respaldado por riqueza real, y planificado para reactiviar de modo heteerodoxo sus estancadas economías. R.Vergés apuntó muy bien esta posibilidad, que podría dar un importante baza a los PIGS para negociar las condiciones de ajuste y apoyo del BCE a nuestros países.

El caso es que ese dinero barato se pidió con fruición desde aquí. El ahorro interno ya se había agotado la anteerior década, fundamentalmente en inversión inmobiliaria que había sido primada por el legislador, parece que adrede, para estimular el crecimiento del país.
Es probable que se eligiera el inmobiliario para ello debido a la estructura social y de capital financiero y humano, así como cultura interna. El inmobiliario es un sector bajo en valor añadiso e intensivo en mano de obra, lo que permitía absover gran cantidad de desempleados con lo que de bienestar social significa. Además, viniendo de una cultura de moneda débil, con devaluaciones competitivas continuadas, el país ahbía interiorizado la “bondad” de la invesrsión inmobiliaria como refugio sólido ante las políticas inflacionistas de la peseta.

El hecho es que desde entonces, España absorbió 2/3 del crédito europeo en Frankfurt, y su destino, dada la estructura especulativa que tomó lo inmobiliario por la regulación incentivadora perversa de nuestras leyes impositivas, fue toda al inmobiliario.
Nuestras administraciones públicas recaudaban ingentes cantidades de dinero debida a la “irreal” actividad económica generada por la deuda hipotecaria que circulaba en nuestro sistema. El mal diseño de la financiación de los escalones (particularmente en Local- Aytos.) bajos de la Admón., hizo que toda su estructura dependiera de ello (urbanismo y tasas), y para colmo, se hiperdimensionó como si los ingresos del inmobiliario fuera estructural cuando era claramente COYUNTURAL.
Para más inri, gran parte de esas operaciones fueron financiadas por el sistema financiero PÚBLICO (Cajas de Ahorros), que se convirtieron en entes generadores de rentas para le estructura económica pública, comprando indirectamente votos y construyendo redes clientelarees de todo tipo, dado que los consejos de adminstración de las mismas, son POLÍTICOS, con clara colusión de intereses.
Las redes de corrupción infiltradas financiaban con dinero “público” (nuestro), que ni siquiera era ahorro existente sino Capital traido del futuro a través de pedirlo prestado en EU, con garantía de “last resort lender” e impuestos para devolverlo.
Así se acabó con desfalcos de pases de suelo cuyo valor es nulo a precios estratosféricos, proyectos faraónicos de aereopuertos en medio de la nada sin pasajeros ni vuelos, trenes hipertecnológicos que nadie puede pagar y un largo etcétera por todos conocido.
Y, con unos gastos de estructura de las administraciones públicas totalmente insostenibles, al caer la Economía Oedinaria en recesión, y con ello, la recaudación impositiva reducirse a casi la mitad. Además, del drama de los 6 millones de parados y el gripaje de la economía.
4 años de negación a través de incrementar la deuda sólo a pstpuesto a un mayor precio lo inevitable, a costa de dilapidar alrededor de 100.000 millones anuales de recursos para pretender que no pasaba nada. Ahora, estamos igual, 4 años después, y con 400.000 millones de € que habrían podido servir para ajustar la economía pública a su tamaño natural, permtiendo el relanzamiento de la nueva etapa.
Ya no tenemos reservas para afrontar ese ajuste, además de que tras todo el sufrimiento de estos años, NO NOS HEMOS DESAPALANCADO NI UN SOLO €. Es decir, debemos MÁS que hace 4 años.

Ante tal panorama, nadie quiere asumir ingentes pérdidas de inmobiliario, con lo que se impide el ajuste valorativo, el sisteema financiero no se sanea, y no generamos recursos para pagar la deuda.
Porque la deuda debe pagarse. Imaginen qué pasaría si no lo hiciéramos. El esfuerzo de 50 años no hubiera servido para nada. Volveríamos al final de la Autarquía.

Por otra parte, a nadie se le escapa la injusticia generacional de la expectativa de vida de las generaciones jóvenes. De hecho, tenemos a grandes rasgos, lo siguiente:


+65  Jubilados. Vivieron la ola completa. Empezando por la fase 1.
50-65. Empezaron fase 2 de la ola. Siempre a mejor, buena educación y servicios. Trabajos. Inmuebles baratos. Derechos adquiridos laborales. Pensiones. Blindados.
45-50. Principalmente indultados.
35-45. Empezaron en fase 3 de la ola. Siempre a mejor? Hasta hoy. Relativa abundancia de trabajos aunque ya no generan tantos derechos. Debido al moemnto en que les pilla la burbuja son los mayores damnificados. Se han hipotecado en el pico. 30 años les observan por delante. Negative equity.
20-35. Empezaron fase 4 de la ola. Muy buena educación. Mercado laboral dramático. Sin derechos ni visos de tenerlos. Indultados. Emigran. No pueden ni quieren pagar los inmuebles.

Hemos importado 6 millones de inmigrantes no cualificados en la fase del boom y ahora estamos exportando miles de  ingenieros sin futuro, pagados por nosotros, para que rindan en economías del Norte. Maravillosa jugada.
Debido a la querencia inflacionista de nuestra economía, la inmigración sirvió para mantenener la presión sobre los salarios baja.

La ecuación de intereses de todo endeudado es diluir el peso de la misma a través de la inflación. Dado que el € no lo permite, se han visto movimientos en pro de la vuelta a la peseta. Inaceptable. Eso haría que el vistuoso (no deudor) pagara por pecador debido a la devaluación e inflación posterior.

También hay movimientos en contra Alemania por la rigidez de su planteamiento y a favor de la monetización del BCE o de los Eurobonos. Es la misma jugada. El endeudado pretende aliviar su carga a través de diluírla entrte todos los europeos y monetizar como la FED para rear inflación.  Volvería a ser injusto. Castigaría a vistuosos ahorradores por pecadores deudores.

Hay quien dice que el problema de fondo es la expansión monetaria, el coeficiente de caja-creación de dinero bancario y  desregulaión y gestión de riesgo del sistema financiero. Quizás. Creo que se debe repensar eso. Es cierto que la política de intereses reales negativos (es económicamente más rentable endeudarse que no, debido a tipor más bajos que la inflación).
Pero mi opinión es que la clave estriba en QUÉ SE HACE CON EL DINERO PRESTADO. Uno pide el dinero para algo. El riesgo de invertirlo en algo generador de rentas suficientes como para devolver el principal más sus intereses recae sobre todo en el que lo pide.
Y aquí no hemos invertido los 2 Billones pedidos a EU la última década en industria, investigación, o infraestructuras eficientes sino en LADRILLOS.
Qué produce un piso acabado?
Y una fábrica?

Debemos cambiar la mentalidad como grupo y como individuos. DECIDIMOS volntariamete unirnos a EU y EU es=MONEDA FUERTE. Moneda fuerte es=NO INFLACIÓN. No inflación es=GENERACIÓN DE RENTAS POR PRODUCTIVIDAD. Generación de rentas por produtividad es=I+D. I+D es =VALOR AÑADIDO. Valor añadido es=RIQUEZA.


Una vez centrados en cómo hemos llegado aquí, lo que nos espera.
Mucho dolor.
Aún no ha comenzado.
Pero es necesario.
Los cambios que necesitamos son gigantescos.
En todos los aspectos.

En el foro Transición estructural discutimos sobre ello.
Libremente.
Educadamente.
Y entre nosotros hay mucha gente de muy buena calidad intelectual y humana. Recordamos nuestra partida del foro burbuja.info con agradecimiento por lo que significó para nosotros. Pero el tiempo provocó nuestra escisición.
Somos de múltiples personalidades, ideologías, edades, educación, procedencia y profesión. Pero nos une una sola cosa: El afán por comprender, debatir y compartir opiniones con todo aquel que lo desee.
Debatimos muy mucho de todo lo que consideramos imprescindible; es decir: TODO.
Tenemos entendidos en Derecho, Energía, Política, Inmobiliario, Filosofía, Sciología, Impuestos, Educación, Economía…
Debatimos todas las cuestiones con libertad, educación y buena voluntad.
A veces llegamos a consensos en opiniones o hitos que conforman nuestras propuestas.
Y deseamos enriquecerlas y compartirlas.

En nuestro foro encontrarán interesantísimos debates sobre energías renovables y su legislación, sobre Administración pública, sobre estructura política, sobre educación. Sobre inversiones. Sobre el futuro.
Y propuestas.

Con este Magazine pretendemos abrir a otros esa información, invitarles a participar, y si podemos, ayudar en nuestra medida a dar a luz los cambios profundos que nuestra sociedad exige. Minimizar los sufrimientos. Aprovechar la ocasión ppara salir reforzados del largo y durísimo camino que nos espera.

No tememos al futuro. Lo esperamos. Lo queremos acelerar. Queremos matar lo moribundo. Estamos en contra de las tendencias continuistas que aún predominan en nuestra sociedad, por lo que de retraso en el cambio suponen, e incremento del coste de la transición, ya de por sí casi insoportable.

Comenzamos la travesía del desierto. No queremos ser guiados por los que nos obligaron a entrar en él. Queremos ayudar a forjar en las personas el sano criterio, la resistencia ante la manipulación.
Y en NINGÚN CASO somos antisistema, sino todo lo contrario. Deseamos que el sistema descarrilado vuelva a funcionar, si cabe, mejor aún que antes de haber descarrilado. No igual, cambiando lo que haya que cambiar.
La tarea es hercúlea.
Nosotros ya hemos empezado.
Nos ayudan?"




Fusilen.
Sds.

[wanderer]

Wellcome. Nostrasladamus has given us a great overview, although I cannot subscribe all of it (I am a sort of mild liberal libertarian in the old-fashioned sense). A point which I think we have to include and of the greatest importance is that since the settlement of the monetary union, Spain have enjoyed a quite long period of both cheap money (low interest rates) and was quite literally flooded by liquidity and inflation over the prize of that money (negative real interest), something which is almost always the propellent of a bubble (not necessarily a property bubble, thought). This is not, nevertheless, sufficient for thorough explanation of the utterly aberrant housing bubble we have suffered, since these cheap money could have propelled bubbles of very different kind (e.g, the Nasdaq bubble by the 2000's), and here comes the particulars of our home politics to help explain this: since the early 80's, where the so-called socialist party PSOE took political power soon hereafter the so-named Transición -.by-the-way, something more keen to what G.de Lampedusa called "Se vogliamo che tutto rimanga come è, bisogna che tutto cambi", all have to change to remain the same than to anything else.-, but that Transición is veiled by a mythical narrative, which in fact prevents it to hold any succesful criticism to the whole infatuation that actually is.

So, the socialist, who hold the power for a long period of our nacient democracy, settled the political conditions to develop an economic model based on brick-and-mortar, because they thought these was an easy way to promote work, but also, and no less important, because these way, it was very easy to recollect money (and to make "the real money"), without any difficulties (unnecesary is to say that only to those "politically well-connected"). They settled the legal foundations of the brick-and-mortar model, using a sort of finantial repression in order to make housing only avaliable in practice by buying the property, and making renting expensive and worthless (something that by-the-way, the former fascist Franco's regime tried to avoid).

The other main political party, the conservatives (PP), they were not less keen to this model (actually, even more), and took power precisely by the time the monetary union in Europe began to be an actual possibility, and afterwards, a reality. It was then, when the explosion of the housing bubble took real momentum and its development was fully-fledged.

Another thing we have to keep in mind is that we came for decades from a situation where we had a quite a big inflation, making saving in money useless, and property assets were mostly considered a safeguard against depretiation of value, so, in a sense it was a folk wisdom to consider to be the owner of your home the right way to proceed; the politicians knew all that but to well, so when they legislate (both socialists and conservatives) to promote home ownership in all ways, none but some old-fashioned or some antisystem people or so complained (in more recent years, a mouvement called "burbujismo" have emerged, thought, something this forum is proud to be a good representative of that).

So, we live now in the aftermath of the bursting of that bubble -.and whole economic model.-, but that very burst, have also taken into light all the weaknesses of our political model, which was settled during that fake "Transición".

Despite of the diversity of opinions and ideologies hold by the members of this forum, we share a general sense of concern regarding the black future we shall enjoy in this country, but more generally, we are also aware that the general panorama of the whole world is also dark, and that these is not a common crise like the ones every now and them occurred (or like the common narrative hold by the politicians use to say: "these are only cycles"); this is not a cycle or a turn around; is instead a change of civillization, even if we don't know what the world shall look like after this crise were over: in fact, in a sense, we think there are big reasons this crise shall not never utterly overcome, mainly because the economic paradigm of endless growth is gone forever: the real point is not to recover this illusion of growth, but instead how to achieve a new kind of social contract were no substantial growth is kept together with some social justice in this new process that challenges all the previous conceptions held both by the people and their political representatives.

Saluti

[Dan]

Hi Fabrizio, welcome to Transizione Strutturale.

Would take ages to translate the whole "corpus" of subjects people discuss here, but we can offer you some simple handles so you can keep digging on what you feel more curious about.

1 - Transicion Estructural.

The very name of the forum will give you some clues. Means we *think* somehow we are near the end of the lifetime of the old social and economic model. This is the end of an era, not only in Spain but the whole world got that funny smell. Spain, however, got an "extra" on transitional targets/obstacles since part of the country's structure has been inherited from the late dictatorship without relevant changes, it's older than it's neighbour's models.
Old structures doesn't fit current times, so changes are needed.

2 - Housing bubble

I've found outside Spain people doesn't realise how relevant this topic is to understand what's going on, and how may help you to extract the 'not so evident' meaning of many things happening everyday in Spain. From weird new laws to political corruption and state budgets. Housing bubble deep soaked the spanish economy, politics, society for more than a decade. There isn't anything in the country left unaffected by it. Tons of information on the forum and honestly there are better people than me to explain it.
We're still waiting for a complete burst of the bubble, and that makes the whole country to suffer. But there are a lot of interests going on here and not all of them are Spain based.

3 - Regions

So you might know about Milan and Bavaria, Spain's own issues with it's regions are deep, highly controversial, and economically and administratively a real pain in the ass. The fact has been (ab)used by the political class in it's own interest in one or other sense, at a great cost for everyone.

4 - Internal devaluation

Housing bubble bursted, construction stopped, we don't have any industrial replacement that could fill that hole on the budget. And we are in the Euro, so printing money is not an option for now. This means Spain's only way out to rebalance it's economy goes through a devaluation of the whole country in a variety of fronts: wages, salaries, prices. Spain's future goes through making it a cheap country. The longer we take to get cheap, the longer and more painful will be the recovery.

5 - Intergenerational gap.

As R.G.C.I.M. said, this is an interesting topic to look at. As a result of the timing of events on the bubble, the population has been affected in different ways by layers depending on it's age. Not a genuine spanish phenomenon but there it soars bad.
Let's say oldies are having a "goldie". They had the savings to play during the bubble, eventually selling overpriced properties to... obviously who needed a place for living: the young ones. So we have the population divided in generations that succeeded (50-60 y.o.), other that will spend their lives paying an absurd mortgage (30-somethings) and other that didn't lose but won't have an easy future at all (youngers).

This is burdening the whole system with a load it's not prepared to manage. Not only the welfare and pensions, but the really productive part of the economy is taxed by the need of paying overpriced flat rents and mortgages, and to index that in every salary, every cost in the country.

6 - Casta: impunity and corruption.

As it sounds. Others may call them "elites" but here we don't love them so much so we'll reserve the nice word for someone worthy. Nostrasladamus and Wanderer already explain it a little. Would take long to give details, so in short, is the sum of political class, financial power and powerful and influential "famiglias". Some sort of corruption of the system in which politics colonised every niche available, giving, selling and owing favours. Sounds bad. And yes, is that bad...



I could keep adding more points but I'd say these few are what makes the debate on this forum special. You'll find a lot of information on private-public debt and bonds anywhere else but rarely about some other matters people here feels as main.

Feel free to ask about anything, and someone will try to help (perhaps not me, I'm a third-liner here, most of the time I just read and learn of the "senior" members).

[Lego]

7.  Lack of political culture.

Just some hints on this point:

- Vey often the outcome of scandals is an electoral reinforcement.  Yes. We accept corruption as part of the game, and then try to modulate it to "appropiate level".

- In fact, most of us would have done the same things if we had the position.  "I have children too". "If I don't, someone else worse than me will do" ... you know...

- Public means Nobody's.  Cheating taxes or liabilities are a sign of inteligence, if they dont catch you.

- We accept someone defraud ten million if I can defraud five hundred.  We call this "picaresque" (rogueness, guile, wiliness)

- Most people votes a party they hate because there's another one they hate even more. They call this "Usefull voting"

- Most of the excluded youth, and a growing number of awakened  want to change the political toxic environment by NOT VOTING. They call this "Active abstention"   

- We don't have a word in spanish for "Accountability" or  "Entittlement"


 We have ideologies based on emotions, attachment to groups, a mix of slogans and cool poses. One in a hundred have ever read a line about anything but e-v-e-r-y-o-n-e  have solid rock believings.  We use tha same part of our brain for football, religion and politics.


- ... 


 
Edit:

IMO: Point 6  Impunity  is the gordian knot.   But impunity comes from us.

   

[FMA]

As always, thank you all for the information and particularly for the description of the bubble though the historical perception that it was meant to be no more showing up because of the technological (but also sophistical) evolution we had in the recent years. I admit that there’s lot of information I’ve to work on, and as pollo, R.G.C.I.M. and Маркс have already written, I will try to translate the submitted documents from Spanish; but now I would like to delineate some consideration (not in the course theme) about the historical frontier we’re trespassing during this crisis.
I understand that, in opposition to which I’ve stated at first glance, there’s no periodicity in the turn of different crises because these crisis are actually the effect of the action of multiple elites (maybe conflicting between themselves) which have (but in an hypothetical way) defined a cycle of crises so that they could have gained from the inexistent money produced by cover a self-inflicted debt and at the same time speculated on the future history by creating financial instrument of high risk. The interesting problem would be to understand if these crises have come to reality precisely because someone has speculated on the future, and therefore the vision a crack would have, when someone messes with high instable systems, eventually appeared. It’s like the speculation has generated the effect of buying time and, at certain levels of power, of buying history.
But for how interesting are these theories, what interests me more is to understand, in the verge of this new historical event, why this historical event of decline and "?" happened.
Many of you have said that we’ve to find a new balance with the political and social systems. But when usually news or events in the world are read, there are some problems which state that this crisis will continue indefinitely until a great event of a catastrophic impact. For example, one phrase that was repeated to me several times was that “to regain its economic balance, Spain should dispose itself of almost 7 million people who are currently out of job”. Actually, even if this is an enormous number of persons, it would not be so difficult to understand where these people could move, and this migration would probably be a very scary situation for Germany and maybe also France, which will produce nonetheless greater instability in EU and induce its collapse (without considering Greece and Italy, by the way).   
But the problem is that we could share this thinking also for the world, which has currently 7.118 billion of people. Therefore we could adjust the phrase to “to regain its economic sustainability, the world should dispose itself of almost 1 billion (just to set a reasonable number) people who are currently out of resources”; and that’s of course not certainly a matter of colonizing the Moon or Mars.
My question is so this: because we live in this historical time, how will you, or how do you think someone should adapt (to use the most Darwinian term) her/himself to the future situation and, knowing what has happened, avoid these elites to take again the power? Or we should just state that this system is too complex to be resolved in a series of strategies, if any?
Do you think that we can let only this financial crisis, which hit the Western World and in a lesser way its affiliates (Arab world, Russia, ‘Second World’ Countries) guide our future history? And what the crisis of Environment, resources, population, political clashes between “rouge” States and Religion conflicts between civilizations in movement (immigrants but also the current situation in Israel)? This is the first time that we observe, because the end of a continuous cycle of wars as in the past, a vast amount of issues we’ve seen in history (crusades, economic crises, religious schisms, nationalism movements, political utopian movements and over) in separated, or almost separated, times. In the last centuries there have been people who thought that at the end of an historical phase a revolution might have started as to pursue an utopian idea of society, which inevitably failed. What’s the main idea, or the main action thought for these times?
It actually seems to me that the different social classes are going well through the crisis period, thinking it will be eventually over. But if you state that it will be never be over, what exactly will happen? It’s this crisis the start of the decline and therefore it’s useless to provide a new balance, but just let the entropy guide society as to make a real understandable pattern prevail?
Do you think that most of the population lives still in the desire of coming back, or this is nowadays accepted?
But particularly, and here I ask of course just to understand the situation, what will it be of you (and of course me)? What will you decide to do, when this historical time will come to its final straws?

_f

[pollo]

7.  Lack of political culture.

Just some hints on this point:

- Vey often the outcome of scandals is an electoral reinforcement.  Yes. We accept corruption as part of the game, and then try to modulate it to "appropiate level".

- In fact, most of us would have done the same things if we had the position.  "I have children too". "If I don't, someone else worse than me will do" ... you know...

- Public means Nobody's.  Cheating taxes or liabilities are a sign of inteligence, if they dont catch you.

- We accept someone defraud ten million if I can defraud five hundred.  We call this "picaresque" (rogueness, guile, wiliness)

- Most people votes a party they hate because there's another one they hate even more. They call this "Usefull voting"

- Most of the excluded youth, and a growing number of awakened  want to change the political toxic environment by NOT VOTING. They call this "Active abstention"   

- We don't have a word in spanish for "Accountability" or  "Entittlement"


 We have ideologies based on emotions, attachment to groups, a mix of slogans and cool poses. One in a hundred have ever read a line about anything but e-v-e-r-y-o-n-e  have solid rock believings.  We use tha same part of our brain for football, religion and politics.


- ... 


 
Edit:

IMO: Point 6  Impunity  is the gordian knot.   But impunity comes from us.

   

Who are this "we" you are talking about? THEY. I don't consider myself a member of that species, and I'd bet many spaniards feel the same as me. Not everyone is that way (this forum exists because of that).
And I'd say also, that the proportions depend on the generation (young, educated people are less prone to this) and the region. The tolerance in some places is beyond absurd (Valencia for example).

We don't hace words for "accountability"? What about "Responsabilidad"?
"Entitlement": "derecho". Or "tener derecho a" or "creerse con derecho a" if we want to be picky.
And what's your point with words? That we don't know these concepts? Because we all know them. Specially here, whoever does these things, knows very well what he's doing. He needs to.

[No Logo]

EsquenotengoTDT

- Most of the excluded youth, and a growing number of awakened  want to change the political toxic environment by NOT VOTING. They call this "Active abstention"   

First of all, wellcome to TE. It´s a strange pleasure reading an italian view located on Germany.

My English is enough to read but it´s not improved to write. Nostrasladamus, Wanderer, Dan, RGCIM, TDT or Pollo, and so many, will be very useful for you. And for me 

I only want to remark, as a awakened named by TDT, that this "Active abstention" is a meditated political way to delegitimize the spanish corrupt democracy. Someone will say it is a wrong way but I must say it is a way followed by many in this forum.

salud