Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[CHOSEN]

[Los precios inmobiliarios no son precios en sentido técnico-económico, sino COTIZACIONES; cotizaciones del 'AHORRO DEL POBRE'; falso ahorro —en realidad, consumo y juego de dinero-sin-trabajar— que se financia con RENTAS SALARIALES; rentas salariales que minoran la acumulación del CAPITAL.]

Pero esto el rentista / pasapisero no lo ve. No asume que toda operación financiera tiene un riesgo. Su lógica aparece muy clara en la noticia: entienden por "precio justo" lo que están pagando en la hipoteca. Y que aceptar rebajas es perder dinero. "Yo a esto le tengo que sacar un beneficio".

¡Pues claro, eso mismo significa "riesgo"! ¡No se gana siempre, los beneficios nunca están 100% garantizados!


Pero esta discusión ya tenía que estar trillada. Lo grave del asunto es que está sucediendo otra vez como en 2008, y no se ha aprendido nada. Peor que eso, se creyó el discurso de que "era un accidente" (pues menudo accidente porque los precios estuvieron bajando 6 años), y luego se creyó también que "estamos volviendo a la normalidad". Ahora vienen los lamentos.

No tiene ningun riesgo porque el gobierno les ha garantizado su himbersión. Al menos en España
Y lo ha hecho a costa del lomo de mileuristas.
Roma no pagaría traidores pero los patricios vivían COMO DIOS a costa de los esclavos. Miras el panorama actual y difiere en poco.

[Negrule]

Y tanto que entienden ese concepto básico, pero solo aplicable para todo lo demás.

Es prácticamente imposible para un propietario aceptar que cabe la posibilidad que si pone su activo en venta el importe sea inferior al de su compra.

Es como se diría en otros aspectos antinatural.

Aparte, y como bien dice Chosen “ No tiene ningun riesgo porque el gobierno les ha garantizado su himbersión”

Llegan las rebajas al mercado inmobiliario: "O algunos propietarios reaccionan o tendrán que bajar dos escalones de golpe"

Tras años de subidas, han llegado las rebajas en el mercado inmobiliario. "El precio lleva bajando desde el último semestre de 2022", señala al respecto Lázaro Cubero, director de Análisis del Grupo 'Tecnocasa', mientras que Francisco Iñareta, portavoz de 'Idealista' indica que "aunque la demanda se mantiene muy alta, el número de compraventas ya empieza a dar signos de agotamiento".

El precio ya estaba atascado por lo absurdo que era, y la subida de tipos ha tenido un efecto prácticamente inmediato.

María Antón lleva ocho meses intentando vender su casa de Valencia, y ante la falta de llamadas y visitas, se ha visto obligada a bajar el precio. "Es una decisión que nos ha costado tomar porque el precio es justo, Nosotros pagamos más de lo que estamos pidiendo ahora por el piso, pero las pocas visitas que hemos tenido vienen con ofertas muy agresivas sin ningún tipo de pudor porque saben que no hay movimiento y que las cosas están difíciles", expresa Antón.

 

Difícil resumirlo mejor. La incultura financiera impide entender conceptos tan básicos como que toda inversión es un riesgo, y que todo bien tiende a devaluarse con el tiempo. Sólo se está aguantando la respiración, pero ya se sabe quién tiene la botella de oxígeno y quién no.

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPbTScpyEWA

[Benzino Napaloni]

[Los precios inmobiliarios no son precios en sentido técnico-económico, sino COTIZACIONES; cotizaciones del 'AHORRO DEL POBRE'; falso ahorro —en realidad, consumo y juego de dinero-sin-trabajar— que se financia con RENTAS SALARIALES; rentas salariales que minoran la acumulación del CAPITAL.]

Pero esto el rentista / pasapisero no lo ve. No asume que toda operación financiera tiene un riesgo. Su lógica aparece muy clara en la noticia: entienden por "precio justo" lo que están pagando en la hipoteca. Y que aceptar rebajas es perder dinero. "Yo a esto le tengo que sacar un beneficio".

¡Pues claro, eso mismo significa "riesgo"! ¡No se gana siempre, los beneficios nunca están 100% garantizados!


Pero esta discusión ya tenía que estar trillada. Lo grave del asunto es que está sucediendo otra vez como en 2008, y no se ha aprendido nada. Peor que eso, se creyó el discurso de que "era un accidente" (pues menudo accidente porque los precios estuvieron bajando 6 años), y luego se creyó también que "estamos volviendo a la normalidad". Ahora vienen los lamentos.

No tiene ningun riesgo porque el gobierno les ha garantizado su himbersión. Al menos en España
Y lo ha hecho a costa del lomo de mileuristas.
Roma no pagaría traidores pero los patricios vivían COMO DIOS a costa de los esclavos. Miras el panorama actual y difiere en poco.

Y cuando los esclavos se acabaron... Roma se esfumó de la historia. También calcaremos eso si no se corta ya con el rentismo.

Hace quince años sí que se quemó una generación entera en el altar. Pero no tengo nada claro que se pueda quemar una segunda. No por falta de escrúpulos que eso ya se da por hecho, sino por falta de gente a la que quemar.

Se puede imprimir dinero, se puede crear el congelador Sareb y mantener artificialmente inflado el precio del banano. Pero si desaparece la población -no hace falta que sea toda, sólo que se vuelva insuficiente-, no se puede sacar de donde no hay a un electricista, un fontanero, un maquinista de tren... Y por supuesto, un médico o un ingeniero. Poco a poco ya se van filtrando noticias de que faltan profesionales en todas partes.

El gobierno no puede garantizar nada, igual que no pudo en 2008. El rescate fue una consecuencia del rescate global al sistema, PPCC lo comenta hasta la saciedad. Los rentistas confundieron beneficiarse de aquello con un inexistente retorno a una normalidad que no fue tal.

¿Tiene el gobierno poder para bajar el Euribor? ¿Y para presionar a los bancos? Los bancos ya contestaron que mandarían un mensaje muy peligroso al dar a entender que las deudas pueden no honrarse. Y así vamos en este 2008 bis, de nuevo contando los días para la temporada de verano y rezando para que la subida de tipos se revierta pronto. Fin del verano, elecciones, y nuevo gobierno, eso es lo que queda antes del crack. Incluso si volvemos a una situación de bloqueo como en 2015 o en 2019 y se retrasa la formación del gobierno, eso sólo supondría un aplazamiento de algo inevitable.


El Reino de España no pinta nada en un eventual re-rescate, no tiene fondos para eso. La cosa es que esta vez Lagarde haga de Trichet y no de Draghi.

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/home-prices-fell-in-january-for-seventh-straight-month-cab88799

Home Prices Fell in January for Seventh Straight Month

Case-Shiller index declines 0.2% as rise in mortgage rates continues to slow housing market

Home prices declined in January from the prior month as increased mortgage rates continued to slow the housing market.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures home prices across the nation, fell 0.2% in January compared with December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the seventh straight month-over-month decline.

On a year-over-year basis, the index rose 3.8% in January, down from a 5.6% annual rate the prior month.

The rise in mortgage rates in the past year has limited home sales and slowed home-price growth. Rates rose above 7% in October and November and have fluctuated so far this year. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.42% in the week ended March 23, up from 4.42% a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac.

“Rising mortgage rates and growing affordability challenges have led to slower home price growth,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS.

Prices are declining fastest in Western markets, such as Seattle, where prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.5% in January from the prior month, and Las Vegas, where prices fell 1.1%.

The Case-Shiller index, which measures repeat-sales data, reports on a two-month delay and reflects a three-month moving average. Homes usually go under contract a month or two before they close, so the January data is based on purchase decisions made early this year or late last year.

The median existing-home price fell 0.2% in February from a year earlier to $363,000, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The Case-Shiller 10-city index gained 2.5% over the year ended in January, compared with a 4.4% increase in December. The 20-city index rose 2.5%, after an annual gain of 4.6% in December.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected the 20-city index to gain 2.7%.

Housing markets in the western half of the U.S. have weakened the most in the past year, while many markets in the east are continuing to post year-over-year price gains.

Miami had the fastest annual home-price growth in the country, at 13.8%, followed by Tampa, at 10.5%. The weakest market was San Francisco, where prices fell 7.6% on an annual basis.

A separate measure of home-price growth by the Federal Housing Finance Agency also released Tuesday found a 5.3% increase in home prices in January from a year earlier. The FHFA index rose 0.2% in January from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-28/mckinsey-starts-cutting-1-400-jobs-this-week-in-restructuring

McKinsey Starts Eliminating 1,400 Roles This Week in a Rare Round of Job Cuts

It’s one of the biggest rounds of cuts at the consulting giant
Firm aims for attrition or voluntary exits for more reductions

McKinsey & Co. is embarking on a rare round of major job cuts, with plans to eliminate about 1,400 roles.

The consulting giant, which has seen rapid growth in its headcount over the past decade, is restructuring how it organizes its support teams starting this week, including workforce reductions or moving people into other roles. The total cuts will amount to about 3% of headcount that has ballooned to almost 47,000 from 28,000 just five years ago and 17,000 in 2012(...)

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/28/disney-reportedly-cuts-metaverse-division-under-igers-restructuring.html

Disney reportedly cuts metaverse division under Iger’s restructuring

*Disney has cut its metaverse division as part of the layoffs that will begin this week, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal.
*The division was led by Mike White, who was previously in charge of Disney’s consumer experiences and platforms.
*All 50 of the employees under White were let go, according to the report, but White remains at the company.

Disney is cutting its metaverse division as part of the layoffs set to begin this week, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Disney, like most companies in 2021, hopped on the metaverse hype train after Facebook changed its name to Meta and outlined bold claims to create a new digital world. Former CEO Bob Chapek established a unit focused on the company’s metaverse strategy led by Mike White, who was previously in charge of Disney’s consumer experiences and platforms. Chapek told employees in a memo at the time that White’s task was “connecting the physical and digital worlds” for Disney entertainment.

All 50 of the employees under White were let go, according to the report, but White remains at the company. His new role remains unclear.(...)

The latest layoffs were initially announced in February and will impact about 7,000 employees, according to a memo sent by Iger. The job cuts will be cross-company, hitting Disney’s media and distribution division, parks and resorts, and ESPN.

Since returning as CEO, Iger has reorganized the company and acknowledged that he’d consider selling Hulu. The layoffs are part of a broader effort to reduce corporate spending and boost free cash flow. Disney said last month it plans to cut $5.5 billion in costs, including $3 billion in content spend.

Disney will host its annual shareholder meeting April 3.

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/28/why-rent-prices-dropped-for-third-straight-month.html

Rent prices drop for third straight month, even in cities like Austin and Phoenix—here’s where they fell most

The rental market has seemingly flipped: After prices surged throughout 2021 and most of 2022, they’ve declined almost as quickly for five of the last six months, a new rent report reveals.

U.S. rent prices decreased by 0.25% from January to February 2023, according to the latest data from rental listings site Rent.com. While it’s a smaller decrease than in previous months, it brings the U.S. monthly average rent price down to $1,937 — lower than its August 2022 peak of $2,053.(...)

Why rent prices are falling

The biggest factor in recent rent price declines is a glut of new rental units in 2023, “the largest in 50 years,” says Thomas LaSalvia, director of economic research at Moody’s Analytics. Rental unit vacancies have increased slightly as well, he says.

Demand for apartments has cooled off a bit too, which has eased prices. This is due to an “affordability crunch” caused by high rent prices and an uptick in unemployment, he says.

“This is very much a supply and demand story where demand is easing a little bit and supply growth is picking up,” says LaSalvia.

With so much economic uncertainty, people are probably thinking twice about moving, especially those looking to move out on their own, he says.

“A newly graduated college student would be less likely to enter into an apartment market, or at least, go with a studio or one bedroom themselves,” says LaSalvia. “In some of the higher cost areas, they might be thinking about finding roommates to lower costs.”

Even with fewer renters seeking out new homes, demand is still strong enough for a slight overall increase in U.S. rent prices on the year. Moody Analytics expects rent price growth of 2.5% to 3% for 2023.

Barring a recession or unforeseen events, rent prices are expected to grow annually by a range of 3% to 4% in 2024 and 2025, says LaSalvia. That’s roughly the same rate that prices grew in the years leading up to the pandemic.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Y aquí otro aviso más.

Los nuevos empleos presionan al alza los sueldos a pesar de los mayores costes

«El mercado de trabajo está sometido a cambios demográficos intensos que podrían ayudar a explicar el desajuste entre la evolución del empleo y la de las horas trabajadas, los problemas de relevo que genera el envejecimiento pueden limitar el crecimiento del empleo en varias comunidades autónomas y que existe una cierta disimilitud entre el tipo de ocupaciones que dejaron las personas que se jubilaron en la última década y aquellas en las que trabajan los jóvenes en la actualidad», señalan los expertos.

A saber cuánto habrá costado este sesudo informe. Lo único difícil era quitarse la venda de los ojos y ver el elefante en la habitación. España lleva 40 años con una natalidad por debajo del índice de reposición. Y ahora que el comodín de la inmigración ya se ha gastado, las frías matemáticas se van haciendo notar.

Pues claro que se presionan los sueldos al alza. Falta mano de obra, pues si quieres tenerla tienes que competir por ella.


Verán este verano otra ronda de lamentos de la patronal de la hostelería. Le prestaré especial atención a la gaditana a ver qué tal le ha ido con lo de contratar marroquíes.

[newclo]

https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1640706426678005773

Home Price Decline by City (% Change from High):

1. San Francisco: -17%
2. Seattle: -16%
3. San Diego: -12%
4. Phoenix: -11%
5. Las Vegas: -10%
6. Denver: -10%
7. Portland: -9%
8. Dallas: -9%
9. LA: -8%
10. Boston -6%
11. Minneapolis: -5%
12. DC: -5%
13. Chicago: -4%
14. Miami: -3%
15. New York: -2%

Nationally, home prices are now down 5% from their post-pandemic peak, according to Case Shiller data this morning.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates have more than doubled to an average of 6.5%.

[Derby]

https://www.economist.com/business/2023/03/27/where-have-all-the-sacked-tech-workers-gone

Where have all the sacked tech workers gone?

Employment in the technology industry has reached an inflection point

(...)Still, the recent lay-offs have been widespread and deep enough to warrant two questions. First, who is getting the chop? And second, where are the laid-off workers going?

So far techies themselves have been mostly spared, observes Tim Herbert of the Computing Technology Industry Association (Comptia), a trade body. Instead, the axe has fallen mainly on business functions like sales and recruitment. These had grown steadily as a share of tech-industry employment in recent years, a telltale sign of bloat (see chart 2). Between the depths of the pandemic in the spring of 2020 and peak employment at the start of 2023, the tech sector added around 1m workers. Simply hiring such numbers required hiring plenty of recruiters; as a headhunting rule of thumb, one recruiter can hire 25 new employees a year. Many of those recruiters may now be surplus to requirements.



But the specialists are not immune. As part of its lay-offs, Meta will restructure its tech functions in April. Releasing talented tech workers back into the wild could be a boon for other sectors wrestling with digital reinvention. For years unsexy industries like industrial goods have struggled to compete with the tech industry for talent. Now they are pouncing. John Deere, an American tractor-maker, has been snapping up fired tech workers to help it make smarter farm machinery. Last year the firm opened an office in Austin, a thriving tech hub in Texas. Carmakers, increasingly focused on software, are also hungry for tech talent. So are banks, health insurers and retailers.

Some of the laid-off techies are also helping fuel a new generation of startups. Applications in January to y Combinator, a startup school in Silicon Valley, were up fivefold on the previous year. Excitement is particularly strong in the buzzy field of Chatgpt-like “generative” artificial intelligence (ai), which uses complex algorithms and oodles of data to produce everything from essays to artworks (indeed, this is one area where big tech continues to hire enthusiastically).

Optimists hope that this technology will, like the smartphone before it, unlock a new wave of creative destruction, as entrepreneurs conjure up a variety of clever applications. The new ais may in time mean even less need for, say, human marketers. But they could, like other breakthroughs before them, create entirely new job categories—not least in the tech industry itself.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-03-27/swedish-housing-market-crash-exposes-economic-divisions

What Broke Sweden? Real Estate Bust Exposes Big Divide

At the heart of the country’s economic and social crisis is a broken housing market, which has amplified social divisions

A half-finished bridge designed to connect two Stockholm neighborhoods has come to epitomize the seismic change Sweden is going through. On one side, an affluent neighborhood that's part of one of Stockholm's oldest suburbs, on the other, an enclave of 1970s-era public housing blocks with a dense population of migrants and a reputation as a trouble spot.

The two suburbs — Ursvik and Rinkeby on the outskirts of the Swedish capital — are physically separated by a four-lane highway. Yet the divisions are much wider than that in a country built on egalitarian ideals, but which now finds itself in the grip of an economic and social crisis. Some local politicians complain that the bridge, originally planned for public transport but now used as a pedestrian crossing for the residents from Rinkeby to visit shops on the other side, is damaging their property prices and that it could cause criminality to spread.

Several want it pulled down.

It is a reminder that while Sweden sits between France and Switzerland in a ranking of dollar billionaires, many poorer Swedes have seen the gap between the haves and the have-nots widen dramatically in recent times. The economy has been buffeted by rising inflation over the past 12 months, interest rate hikes and a slumping currency.  The fallout has triggered Europe’s worst house price collapse and a drop in household consumption. Even with the upheavals from the Ukraine war denting other European nations, Sweden is the only economy in the region projected to contract in 2023.

At the heart of Sweden’s woes is a dysfunctional housing market, which has not only cemented social divides, but exacerbated them.

The country’s property boom — which saw prices increase by almost 250% in the past 20 years — was fueled by razor-thin borrowing costs and a shortage of rental properties. This lack of housing squeezed poorer families into overcrowded accommodation. And pushed others into buying — the total value of mortgages increased 459% in the two decades up to 2022. Before the latest crisis, household debt, including mortgages and consumer debt, had soared to more than 200% of disposable income, according to the OECD’s latest data from 2021. That is double the level in Germany.

Until now these problems had been papered over by cheap money and an ever-growing economy. With both coming to an end the vulnerabilities in the system are being exposed. An over indebted middle class now faces the prospect of not being able to afford to pay their mortgages, much less everyday luxuries.

At the same time the number of corporate bankruptcies soared to the highest level in at least a decade in January as construction companies came under pressure. The rate of home construction is now expected to fall to roughly half of what is needed to keep up with population growth, creating a vicious cycle that sows the seeds for more housing strain in the months and years ahead.

The central bank views real estate lending as the biggest risk in the financial system and has warned about the impact of rising household debt on everything from consumption to bankruptcies and bank losses. It has repeatedly called for housing and tax reforms with former Governor Stefan Ingves criticizing the level of the property tax, which is among the lowest in the world.

K2A Knaust & Andersson Fastigheter AB, a builder and manager of rental apartments, has lost 70% of its market value since the Riksbank started hiking rates last year. It has postponed almost all of its construction starts due to the market uncertainty. “If you're looking at the situation from a societal perspective, it's a huge problem,” Chief Executive Officer Johan Knaust said. “There will be a big vacuum in construction.”

The problems are mounting for the government. Although unemployment has remained relatively stable — telecom-equipment company Ericsson AB and Electrolux AB, the appliance manufacturer, are among those to announce job cuts — the rise in bankruptcies and slowdown in the economy could see that change. Meanwhile Sweden’s biggest pension fund has taken a hit of as much as $2 billion in the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Even membership of Nato, which seemed set to be fast tracked after Russia invaded Ukraine, has been caught up in geopolitical rows.

“There's a risk that residential construction will slow more than 50% this year,” Nordea Bank economist Susanne Spector said. “This will weigh on GDP and there's a risk that also other construction investments will fall. Some heavily indebted property firms and municipalities will probably delay projects.”

Growing social tension became evident in last year’s election. Amid concerns about gang violence, which has led some to dub Sweden the gun-crime capital of Europe with almost 400 shootings last year, the once fringe Sweden Democrats became the second largest party. The nationalist group now props up Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s minority government.

The Rinkeby-Ursvik bridge is scheduled to be completed this year. But a local branch of the Sweden Democrats has already found an alternative use for it, trying to turn it into a political rallying point for its anti-immigrant message. “The bridge from Rinkeby makes it easier for criminals to recruit your children into crime,” the party told local voters during last year’s campaign. “We take your children’s safety seriously. Tear down the bridge!”

Rental black market

Christina Abdulahad remembers vividly the moment her dream, of renting an apartment in a quiet neighborhood of the Swedish capital, turned into a nightmare. The 28-year-old, a graduate of Lund University where she had advised other students about how to avoid fraud in rental housing, did her due diligence before she agreed to take on the new apartment.

But waiting to pick up the keys outside the three-room home she was alarmed to find others turning up to do the same thing.  It transpired that Abdulahad, and around nine others, had handed over their deposits to a woman who had stolen the identity of the legal tenant. Abdulahad said she was cheated out of 43,500 Swedish kronor ($4,200), part of an elaborate fraud involving multiple bank accounts that raked in a total of about half a million Swedish krona, estimates Abdulahad, who met with numerous other victims.

“It felt like a nightmare,” said Abdulahad, choking up as she recalled how she dragged her belongings to the new flat in the Swedish capital. “It turned my life upside down.”

Karl-Johan Lantz, the officer leading the investigation into Abdulahad’s case, said the police
 had identified several more incidents with “the same modus operandi.” He added that they were set to question suspects over “fraud and possibly money laundering” offenses. 

Critics argue that such cases are a byproduct of the dysfunction in the property market, one that is getting worse.

"I don't see any improvement for the coming years with the current policies," Alexander Wilson van Deurs, chairman for advocacy group Jagvillhabostad.nu, said. "More people will get hurt."

Sweden has long fallen short on its constitutional pledge to provide an affordable place to live for all of its 10.4 million people, but until recently that was masked by the growing economy which had helped disguise flaws in the system.

The shortage of affordable accommodation is hitting recruitment. The Stockholm Chamber of Commerce reported last year that three out of four heads of human resources said the housing situation was making it harder for their firms to hire new staff.

Rents are negotiated annually by landlords and the tenants association. Advocates say the system helps create a rental market in Stockholm where teachers, police officers, street cleaners and other public sector workers can afford to live alongside bankers, software developers and government officials. Yet supply hasn’t kept up with demand for decades. Average waiting times for a rent-controlled apartment is now 9.2 years, but can stretch up to 20 years in some parts of the capital.

That has sparked a black market in rental leases, which are now very valuable for those who hold them, but out of the reach of many of those who really need them. It has also opened the door to frauds like the one that ensnared Abdulahad.

This can be a lucrative business for those on the inside. They get a nice place for little money and can hold on to it for friends and family, or they can cash in by selling the lease under the table. But for migrants and others without the resources or connections to secure housing, they’re vulnerable and are forced into shady deals for rental apartments. One woman who needed housing for herself and her daughter paid $40,000 for one of these illicit rental leases in a suburb of Stockholm.

“What was I supposed to do,” said the woman, who asked not to be identified, “live under a bridge or queue 15 years for an apartment?”

The black market only works for those who can afford it. “We meet a lot of women who are returning to abusive relationships because they can't find anywhere to live,” said Fanny Hansen, a coordinator at a victim support group in Sodertalje south of Stockholm.

The government tried to clamp down on this illicit trade in 2019 by imposing penalties on buyers of second-hand leases, not just the sellers. Yet the illicit trade is rampant, even if the data is sketchy. One government report from 2017 put the share of re-sold rental contracts at between 10% and 50% of the public housing supply.

"There is an ongoing inquiry on bringing more order in the rental market, and this is an important part of the government's work to fight crime, including organized crime,” said Andreas Carlson, Sweden’s minister of housing and infrastructure. “This is a component in that work."

Construction crunch

A few miles northwest of Stockholm is one of the country’s most ambitious projects designed to fill the housing gap. But construction crews have become thin on the ground at Barkarbystaden — a property development with plans to eventually house 30,000 people. Work on a cluster of 200 apartments that were supposed to be finished by early March was slowed, to drip feed their release into the market, in response to the slump. And local officials are delaying granting new building rights because of the economic environment.

Emelie Grind, director of community development at Jarfalla, the municipality redeveloping what was once a military airbase, justified delaying the grants, saying that “things need to settle down” first.

The site, which will be linked to downtown Stockholm by the city’s Tunnelbana mass transit system, is an example of what Sweden wants to be. Surrounded by nature reserves and dotted with parks and public spaces, the new urban center is designed for a mix of families and singles and has been served by electric self-driving buses since 2018.

But, said Martin Hofverberg, chief economist for Sweden’s tenants association, there is a disconnect in the market. “We have a system that is rigged to not build houses. When the economy slows down, construction plummets.”

To revive house building, local leaders want the government to restore investment aid. The initiative, which granted subsidies for constructing rental apartments and student accommodation, was ended by Kristersson’s coalition, which said it was too expensive.

It has also become a political minefield. Allowing landlords to charge more for attractive apartments, which could make more homes available, is unpopular with voters.

Carlson ruled out any new investment support but said the government does need “to broaden ownership so that more people can enter the market."

For Abdulahad, and tens of thousands of others, that will seem like a pipedream “I don’t have any hopes I will get the money back,” she said. “I just want the people stopped. This can’t keep happening over and over.”

[Mad Men]

[Los precios inmobiliarios no son precios en sentido técnico-económico, sino COTIZACIONES; cotizaciones del 'AHORRO DEL POBRE'; falso ahorro —en realidad, consumo y juego de dinero-sin-trabajar— que se financia con RENTAS SALARIALES; rentas salariales que minoran la acumulación del CAPITAL.]

Pero esto el rentista / pasapisero no lo ve. No asume que toda operación financiera tiene un riesgo. Su lógica aparece muy clara en la noticia: entienden por "precio justo" lo que están pagando en la hipoteca. Y que aceptar rebajas es perder dinero. "Yo a esto le tengo que sacar un beneficio".

¡Pues claro, eso mismo significa "riesgo"! ¡No se gana siempre, los beneficios nunca están 100% garantizados!


Pero esta discusión ya tenía que estar trillada. Lo grave del asunto es que está sucediendo otra vez como en 2008, y no se ha aprendido nada. Peor que eso, se creyó el discurso de que "era un accidente" (pues menudo accidente porque los precios estuvieron bajando 6 años), y luego se creyó también que "estamos volviendo a la normalidad". Ahora vienen los lamentos.

No tiene ningun riesgo porque el gobierno les ha garantizado su himbersión. Al menos en España
Y lo ha hecho a costa del lomo de mileuristas.
Roma no pagaría traidores pero los patricios vivían COMO DIOS a costa de los esclavos. Miras el panorama actual y difiere en poco.

Exacto.

Según mis limitados conocimientos, si algo tiene el capitalismo, es que tumba rápidamente al perdedor, no tiene término medio. Esto es aplicable a sistemas, burbujas o negocios. En el caso de los negocios el final es la quiebra. En la burbuja el final es el pinchazo y la bajada a los infiernos del precio del bien o servicio.

Esto amigo, es muy bien recibido cuando la cosa sube cual suflé. Pero cuando baja, ay cuando baja, entonces parece ser que todos se vuelven comunistas en el sentido de intervenir el mercado.

Culpar al capitalismo de las trampas que hacen los países es un error.

Como bien apunta PP.CC el capitalismo inventó el estado del bienestar para contrarrestar el principal problema que tiene, que es crear vencedores y perdedores. Un bote común (impuestos) para repartir entre gente mayor, niños, enfermos, pobres…. Algo que repercute directamente en la supervivencia del modelo capitalista, pues sino, los perdedores se lanzarían a defender el comunismo.   Respecto a las burbujas, el capitalismo provoca burbujas, pero es implacable destrozándolas (no las pincha, las destroza). Si hubieran dejado que el capitalismo allá por el 2008 hubiera hecho su trabajo, no se hablaría de burbuja inmobiliaria en casi ningún lugar del mundo.

Al final el capitalismo terminará por vengarse porque la capacidad de los estados es limitada y el poder del capital privado y su inmensa fuerza son inconmensurables. Por el momento llevamos cientos de miles de millones gastados (solo en España) en mantener el tinglado y pendemos de un hilo para no romper el frágil equilibrio.

Metafóricamente me recuerda a una presa (pisitos) que resiste una presión cada vez mayor para retener el agua (dinero) y van realizando contrafuertes (hold, Sarebs,leyes de la vivienda….) pero el final es incuestionable. No teman, el agua quiere salir y debe salir para seguir el curso natural del capital, solo los que invirtieron en la presa perderán.

Saludos.

[muyuu]

Esto amigo, es muy bien recibido cuando la cosa sube cual suflé. Pero cuando baja, ay cuando baja, entonces parece ser que todos se vuelven comunistas en el sentido de intervenir el mercado.

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/home-prices-housing-market-trends-east-west-83c9eb56

A Tale of Two Housing Markets: Prices Fall in the West While the East Booms

In an unusual pattern, the 12 major housing markets west of Texas, plus Austin, saw home prices fall in January, while the opposite happened in the rest of the country

The United States is a country of two housing markets. In one, home prices are falling from a year ago. In the other, they’re still posting annual gains. That division runs right down the center of the U.S.

In all of the 12 major housing markets west of Texas, plus Austin, home prices fell in January on an annual basis, according to mortgage-data firm  Black Knight Inc.’s home-price index. In the 37 biggest metro areas east of Colorado, except Austin, home prices rose year-over-year.

This pattern of geographical disparity is highly unusual, if not unprecedented, housing analysts say. “We’ve never seen anything quite like this where it’s so stark, west to east,” said Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research strategy at Black Knight.

Home prices are falling in the West, while prices in the East are increasing.


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