Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Invierno 2022

[siempretarde]

Igualmente me ha dejado con la boca abierta, me ha recordado la fabula de la liebre y la tortuga, solo que el es una liebre que no se para a echar una siesta. No esta en las mismas condiciones que las personas a las que va dirigida el video El 5% no esta tan lejos, que no para de repetir como iniciador de la hecatombe.

[Impresentable vídeo de Pablo Gil, de vergüenza ajena, en el que dice que es que él es 'inversor en vivienda' —recordemos que hace poco dijo que se había 'salido de la Bolsa'— y que el vídeo se lo esponsoriza una entidad de la banca en la sombra, de inversión inmobiliaria:

Solo hay que esperar a que Yelena Isinbáyeva vuelva a batir el record de pertiga para dar por finalizada la transicion estructural y nada menos en en Zurich.

1    5.06    Rusia Yelena Isinbáyeva    28 de agosto de 2009    Zúrich
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salto_con_p%C3%A9rtiga

Por cierto, ¿saben que el pertiguista —un servidor lo fue en su adolescencia— Duplantis acaba de superar por segunda vez la increíble marca de 6.20 m: la primera (6.21) en julio-2022 y la segunda (6.22) en febrero-2023 ?
A que nosotros nos hemos puesto igual de contentos en las dos fechas. ¿Será una sincronía? Desde luego, podemos hacer una regresión lineal entre los acontecimientos de la inflexión del proceso de transición estructural y lo de Duplantis, y nos saldrá una correlación r=1, ja, ja, ja. Atentos al 6.23.

[muyuu]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12171951/03/23/Reinventemos-la-Union-Europea.html

Saludos.

curioso "timing"

si no lo hacen los alemanes y los franceses, ¿cómo van a hacerlo los demás de buen grado? - otra cosa es que "se lo hagan"

[pollo]

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12172442/03/23/La-moderacion-de-precios-no-llega-la-vivienda-sube-un-8-en-febrero-con-todas-las-CCAA-al-alza-.html

Mejor dicho será que el banco tiene que prestar una media de 1960€/m². Teniendo en cuenta que las hipotecas están bajo mínimos, algo no encaja en esta narrativa.

[Marv]

Finalmente, un Rolex Submariner nunca es hortera, máxime si es de los 1960 con correa Nato James Bond de menos de 22 mm.

Es hortera llevarlo con traje business, es un diver. Y sobre todo, lo es más si no eres Sean Connery en Goldfinger.

El reloj en sí es perfecto, especialmente bonitos antes de la maxi-case en 2005.

Por último, Rolex no ofrece correas NATO en su catálogo, toda correa de ese tipo es aftermarket.

[muyuu]

Mejor dicho será que el banco tiene que prestar una media de 1960€/m². Teniendo en cuenta que las hipotecas están bajo mínimos, algo no encaja en esta narrativa.

yo lo que he observado es que estamos en fase de negación y simplemente no se vende, de modo que la bajada drástica que hay en el lado de la oferta no se materializa de momento

lo que ha pasado en los dos o tres meses anteriores en Inglaterra, y como pasó durante el anterior bear market


muchos esperan que las bajadas nominales no sean para tanto si se mantiene una inflación absurda durante el tiempo suficiente, algo que en cierta medida va a pasar me temo

pero vamos, al ritmo que sube el euribor tendrán que claudicar muchísimos, sí o sí

[muyuu]

Pablo Gil | ¿Hay una BURBUJA en el Mercado Inmobiliario? [00:16:28]

pasapisero piensa que España, con un price-to-income-ratio peor que el Reino Unido, no tiene una situación de riesgo inmobiliario y la compara con Alemania en 2008

[marvin]

Pablo Gil | ¿Hay una BURBUJA en el Mercado Inmobiliario? [00:16:28]

pasapisero piensa que España, con un price-to-income-ratio peor que el Reino Unido, no tiene una situación de riesgo inmobiliario y la compara con Alemania en 2008

Me parece interesante ver la última época de Pablo Gil como síntoma de lo mal que deben estar los profesionales de la inversión, de que tienen poco negocio.
Empezó saliendo en el evento de Mundocripto, hace poco ha empezado a vender un curso de macroeconomia por YouTube y ya el acabose es este video patrocinado por el sector, tipo Gonzalo Bernardos.

[wanderer]

La burbuja de las empresas que pulularon a raíz del COVID-19, ha estallado por completo:

La bolsa da por muerta la pandemia: desplome total de las empresas de test y mascarillas
Los valores de las empresas dedicadas a los test de antígenos y mascarillas, tras sufrir una burbuja durante la pandemia, han caído de forma fulgurante
https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia_y_finanzas/bolsa-muerta-pandemia-desplome-empresas-test-y-mascarillas.html

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-01/work-from-home-high-interest-rates-put-92-billion-in-office-mortgages-at-risk

Two Office Landlords Defaulting May Be Just the Beginning

With at least $92 billion of office mortgages maturing this year, landlords are under increasing pressure.

A Pacific Investment Management Co. office landlord that defaulted on $1.7 billion of mortgage notes sent shockwaves through a troubled part of the real estate market.

For years, property owners have been grappling with the rise of remote work — a problem so large that one brokerage estimates roughly 330 million square feet (31 million square meters) of office space will become vacant by the end of the decade as a result. But low interest rates allowed the investors to muddle along more easily without worrying about the debt.

Now, many office landlords are seeing borrowing costs skyrocket, leading owners such as Pimco’s Columbia Property Trust and Brookfield Corp. to default on mortgages. While remote work hurt the office market, rising rates could push landlords, which often use floating-rate debt, closer to a tricky edge.

“It’s just a group psychology, like, ‘Now that one of my peers has done it, everyone’s going to do it,’ so I wouldn’t be surprised over the next six months, if you just saw a wave of defaults and keys getting handed back, because the offices are not getting filled up,” said Nitin Chexal, chief executive officer of real estate investment firm Palladius Capital Management. “A lot of these assets will never recover.”

The clock is ticking for more office owners with the Federal Reserve on the path to raising its benchmark rate even higher, more than 17% of the entire US office supply vacant and an additional 4.3% available for sublease. Nearly $92 billion in debt for those properties from nonbank lenders comes due this year, and $58 billion will mature in 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

“If you have a loan coming due this year, you’re in trouble,” GFP Real Estate Chairman Jeffrey Gural said. “If you have a loan coming due in three years and you don’t have a lot of vacancy, you’re going to just wait it out.”



Gural’s GFP recently defaulted on a Manhattan office building on Madison Avenue and is in talks with lenders to extend the loan. But the recent defaults by other landlords could help negotiations because lenders may not want to take back the assets, he said.

“It’s helpful for me, that we’ve seen some big players basically give the keys because it makes it easier to negotiate with the banks,” Gural said.

Floating-Rate Debt

The financing challenges are a particular problem for the real estate industry given the proliferation of floating-rate loans, where interest rates reset more frequently. About 48% of debt on office properties that matures this year has a variable rate, according to Newmark Group Inc.

Landlords often have to purchase interest rate caps, which limit payment increases when rates rise and have also become more expensive.  The price for one-year protection on a $25 million loan with a 2% rate cap soared to $819,000 in February from $33,000 in early March 2022, according to Chatham Financial.

Even for owners who haven’t defaulted, the math has become a lot more complicated. Blackstone Inc.’s Willis Tower in Chicago, for example, has roughly $1.33 billion of commercial mortgage-backed securities and has seen monthly payments on that debt jump nearly 300% in February from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A Blackstone spokeswoman said the building is highly occupied with long lease terms.

“We are extremely selective in the types of office we want to own, which is why US traditional office represents only approximately 2% of our portfolio today,” Jillian Kary, a Blackstone spokeswoman, said in a statement.

Defaults don’t necessarily mean owners are giving up on offices entirely. In many cases, such as GFP’s Madison Avenue tower, the investors are looking to negotiate better terms with lenders, or explore other options such as converting the buildings to apartments.

“Every situation is unique,” said Dustin Stolly, a vice chairman at Newmark. “If you’ve got a building that’s well-leased, well-located and has an institutional owner, you’ll be fine. There’s high likelihood the lender you have in place will play ball on an extension. If it’s private ownership, the building is overleveraged, and sponsorship doesn’t have access to liquid capital, that’s where we are seeing situational loan sales or forced asset sales.”

Vacant Space

Higher rates are the latest of the office market’s woes. Many buildings have been struggling to lure workers back after the pandemic, a problem that’s worsened as companies lay off employees and cut back on real estate. Falling demand will leave the US with an excess supply of 330 million square feet of office space by 2030, according to a Cushman & Wakefield report.

Some cities have fared better than others. The average occupancy rate in Austin, Texas, was 66% of pre-pandemic levels for the week through Feb. 22, compared with 47% in New York and 44% in San Francisco, according to security firm Kastle Systems.

But the financing fallout has spread across the US. The default by Columbia Property Trust, which was bought in 2021 by funds managed by Pimco, involves seven properties, ranging from a Manhattan tower that used to house the New York Times, to a San Francisco building that’s battling Elon Musk’s Twitter over some missed rent payments. One building in the group of properties, 245-249 W. 17th St., is also seeing Twitter, a key tenant, look to sublease its space at the building.

Another one of the properties entangled in the default, 201 California St. in San Francisco, had roughly 42% of its office space available for lease, either directly or via sublease, as of Feb. 28, according to Savills. For 315 Park Ave. South in Manhattan, that figure stood at nearly 39%.

Overall, the seven-building portfolio is 84% leased, down from 87% when Columbia Property Trust was acquired in 2021, according to Columbia spokesperson Bud Perrone, who cited data that doesn’t include subleases. Columbia said last week that it had engaged with lenders to restructure the loans on the seven properties.

New York landlord RXR is looking to pare back its office buildings, negotiating with its lenders on at least two offices in the city for potential conversions. RXR declined to comment.

Seeking Relief

A Brookfield business defaulted on loans tied to two Los Angeles office towers earlier this year. Brookfield Property Partners, which owns a range of real estate including office and retail spots, said in a Feb. 24 filing that it had stopped payment on only about 2% of all of its properties while trying to negotiate a modification or restructuring of its debt.

“We are generally seeking relief given the circumstances resulting from the current economic slowdown, and may or may not be successful with these negotiations” the filing said. “If we are unsuccessful, it is possible that certain properties securing these loans could be transferred to the lenders.”

Brookfield declined to comment.

The office market’s pain has also ratcheted up as lenders pull back, with major banks weighing sales of office loans. For owners wanting out of this market, there have been few sales of the properties: Transactions in January fell to their slowest pace for the month since 2010, according to MSCI Real Assets.

US office values are down 20% through January from March 2020, according to a Green Street index. Ultimately, the decline in office prices is likely to outpace the drop for commercial real estate prices broadly, according to Matt Rocco, chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

“It’s going to be a very tough two years until the market finds an equilibrium,” said Ran Eliasaf, founder of investment firm Northwind Group. “In the meantime, there’s going to be a lot of hurt and unfortunately, a lot of money lost.”

[Derby]

https://fortune.com/2023/03/04/housing-market-just-took-another-hit-mortgage-rates-home-price-correction-real-estate/

The U.S. housing market just took another hit

Back in early February, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari went on CNBC to make it clear that loosening financial conditions, including mortgage rates which had slipped at the time to 6.09%, could interfere with the Fed’s inflation fight if it saw the economy warm up.

“The [U.S.] housing market is starting to show signs of life again because mortgage rates have come back down,” Kashkari said. “You’re right it [loosening financial conditions] does make our jobs harder to bring the economy into balance. All things being equal, that means we’d have to do more with our other tools.”

In the days following that interview, financial markets tightened back, and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate shot back up to 6.97% as of Friday, as investors realized that improved economic data means the Federal Reserve will likely hold the federal funds rate higher for longer than previously expected.

Real estate agents and homebuilders had been celebrating a slight improvement in transaction levels spurred by reduced mortgage rates earlier this year, but this rebound in mortgage rates means the U.S. housing market, activity wise, could be in for an extended period of sluggishness.

Already, mortgage purchase applications—a leading indicator for home sales volumes—has started to fall again. Indeed, this week’s seasonally adjusted Mortgage Purchase Application Index came in at the lowest level since 1995.

“After a brief revival in application activity in January when mortgage rates dropped down to 6.2%, there has now been three straight weeks of declines in applications as mortgage rates have jumped 50 basis points over the past month,” wrote Joel Kan, the deputy chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, earlier this week. “Data on inflation, employment, and economic activity have signaled that inflation may not be cooling as quickly as anticipated, which continues to put upward pressure on rates.”

The economic shock from this latest mortgage rate jump means the U.S. housing market slump will continue, and could even deepen, risking pushing the U.S. economy into a recession.

On Tuesday, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas warned that "the perils detected in the U.S. and German housing markets pose a vulnerability to the global outlook because of the size of those nations’ economies and significant cross-border financial spillovers."

Historically speaking, the economic impact from the Fed's inflation fighting always hits housing first. It goes like this: The central bank begins by applying upward pressure on interest rates. Not long afterwards, home sales sink and homebuilders begin to cut back. That causes demand for both commodities (like lumber) and durable goods (like refrigerators) to fall. Those economic contractions then quickly spread throughout the rest of the economy and, in theory, help to rein in runaway inflation.

The question heading forward is if the housing market can absorb these economic shocks without it spreading throughout the rest of the economy. On one hand, private residential fixed investment (i.e. housing GDP) has already seen a sharp pullback. On the other hand, residential construction employment remains at its cycle peak as builders avoid layoffs as they work the historic backlog they accumulated during the Pandemic Housing Boom.

While spiked mortgage rates have translated into a historic pullback in home sales, it hasn't translated into a house price crash. Through December, U.S. single-family home prices as measured by the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (see chart above) are down 2.7% from their June 2022 peak. Without seasonal adjustment national home prices are down 4.4%. (Keep in mind, some regional housing markets still haven't seen a decline.)

"Housing froth has reemerged since 2020, with signs of a pandemic housing boom extending beyond the U.S. to other, mostly advanced, economies. While house-price growth has recently begun to moderate—or, in some countries, to decline—the risk of a deep global housing slide persists," wrote Dallas Fed economists earlier this week.

Heading forward, Dallas Fed economists expect the U.S. housing market to continue passing through a "modest" home price correction. However, if the Federal Reserve were to get even more aggressive in its inflation fight, it could create a "severe" correction in national home prices.

"While a modest housing correction remains the baseline scenario, the risk that a tighter-than-expected monetary policy may trigger a more severe price correction in Germany and the U.S. cannot be ignored," wrote Dallas Fed economists earlier this week.

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/0228

[asustadísimos]

Ya no se compra vivienda con la razón, sino con la emoción

[asustadísimos]

[Para leer con esta música —'Goldfingaaa', pero luego ver bien el vídeo—:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51Wg6k9cWhM

¿Qué pinta Jaime Carvajal Urquijo de vicepresidente con casco de obra amarillo de plástico y banderita holandesa en el lateral?

Sépase que Rafael del Pino no lleva cuatro, sino solo tres botones practicables en la bocamanga. Eso sí, se desabotona el primero. Este sí que lo hace por si tiene que arremangarse.

Como hemos visto en este blog, hay mucha enjundia en estas fotos:

El Rolex Submariner es un 'por si' de cuatro botones. Incluso admite oro sin despeinarse, el oro del triunfo:
https://content.rolex.com/dam/watches/family-pages/submariner/video/flagship/professional-watches-submariner-flagship-video-per_flag_submariner_21_a_60-uk_16x9-en-py-ly-cl-no_clock.mp4

Hay mucho 'diving' en el proceloso mundo de las selenes de Spectra.

No hay tanta distancia entre el pañuelo cuatro nudos y el casco amarillo de plástico...

..., como entre el puro y el palillo mondadientes.]

[asustadísimos]

['Off topic':
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LEZD4x-H1Q&t=0s ]

[wanderer]

Pensiones máximas, jubilaciones anticipadas e incentivos perversos:

¿Por qué salen ganando los jubilados anticipados? Cobran 350 euros más de pensión que quienes trabajan hasta los 66 años

• La Seguridad Social cifra la prestación media de jubilación entre los 60 y los 64 años en 1.882 euros, y en 1.533 euros al mes entre los 65 y los 69 años
  
• El Gobierno cambió la ley hace un año para desincentivar las salidas prematura del mercado laboral

https://www.abc.es/economia/salen-ganando-jubilados-anticipados-cobran-320-euros-20230304144442-nt.html

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/mercado/2023/03/03/6401e1e5468aeb9d478b45ba.html

Saludos.