PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2023

[copo]

Algo no está bien o me pierdo. Sanidad y educación es mucho más que el cuadradito rojo.

Saludos.

El grueso del gasto en educación y sanidad es de las comunidades autónomas. Cataluña gastó en Educación en 2022 7.838 millones de euros, y Andalucía en Sanidad 12.350 millones. En ambos casos mucho más que el gasto estatal.

Es verdad, son competencias transdferidas.


Una duda. Ahí se incluyen los impuestos locales tales como basuras,IBI y demás?

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/f1022f0e-c137-4d4d-a854-64bfd2dc783c

Chinese property stocks fall despite Dalian Wanda avoiding default

Last-minute repayment of $400mn bond fails to boost sector

Mainland Chinese property stocks fell sharply on Monday after a last-ditch bond repayment by conglomerate Dalian Wanda failed to allay investor concerns about the sector.

The group raised $320mn through the partial sale of a subsidiary over the weekend and repaid a $400mn bond that had been due on Sunday, according to two direct investors, who asked to remain anonymous.

However, shares fell in other prominent property businesses, including China’s largest homebuilder Country Garden, in a sign of the continuing pessimism over a sector that has weighed on the Chinese economy after a wave of earlier defaults. The Hang Seng Mainland Properties index closed down 6.4 per cent on Monday in Hong Kong, far outstripping a fall of around 2 per cent by the city’s benchmark Hang Seng stock index.

Hong Kong-listed media company China Ruyi Holdings said in a stock exchange filing that Dalian Wanda had agreed to sell a 49 per cent stake in its entertainment unit Beijing Wanda Cultural Industry for Rmb2.26bn ($315mn). Dalian Wanda did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The company’s lack of communication over its debt problems has added to market volatility, echoing the defaults of Evergrande and its peers in late 2021 when there was also a lack of official announcements from the debtors.

Asian high-yield bond markets were shaken in recent days over concerns that Dalian Wanda, the only property-related group to successfully issue dollar-denominated debt this year, would join a host of other property businesses, including Evergrande and Kaisa, in failing to make an international repayment deadline.

The company initiated a 10-day grace period for a missed interest payment on the bond last Thursday, while another of its notes maturing in 2025 is trading well below par at 80 cents on the dollar.

Fears of a default, especially given Dalian Wanda’s status as a well-known enterprise with an international footprint, added to concerns about wider contagion stemming from China’s property woes, with many developers locked in protracted restructuring processes.

“Distressed Chinese property developers’ bond restructurings can buy them some room to normalise operations, but most will continue to face repayment difficulties if home sales do not recover for a sustained period,” Fitch Ratings wrote on Monday.

Activity in China’s property sector remains depressed nearly two years after Evergrande, the world’s most indebted developer, defaulted on its borrowings and a wave of subsequent failures weighed on construction and economic activity. Beijing has offered supportive measures but has stopped short of major stimulus.

Evergrande attended a court hearing in Hong Kong on Monday to ascertain whether it could hold a vote on an offshore plan that would see international creditors exchange their holdings for notes linked to Hong Kong-listed subsidiaries.

Any meeting for a vote should shed further light on the future of the company and its vast $340bn in liabilities. Last week, it disclosed losses of $81bn over 2021 and 2022.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-24/blackstone-to-sell-a-self-storage-business-for-2-2-billion

Blackstone Sells Storage Business as BREIT Faces Withdrawals

    Public Storage will buy Simply Self Storage for $2.2 billion
    BREIT expects to generate more than $600 million in profit

Blackstone Inc.’s $68 billion real estate trust agreed to sell Simply Self Storage to Public Storage for $2.2 billion as the property vehicle grapples with investor withdrawals and upheaval in the commercial-property sector.

Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust will sell the self-storage business, the companies said Monday in a statement. The deal, expected to close in the third quarter, will result in more than $600 million in profit for BREIT, Blackstone said.

Blackstone built BREIT into a massive player in the real estate industry, attracting investors as it snapped up properties from student housing to data centers across the US. The trust started to come under pressure last year as more investors sought to pull money amid the shift in markets.

BREIT has limited withdrawals for eight straight months, although requests eased in June from a month earlier and are down from a peak in January.

Commercial-property owners are facing changing economics as borrowing costs rise. An index for property prices has fallen 12% in the past year, according to real estate analytics firm Green Street. Offices have taken the brunt of the hit as landlords grapple with a change in tenant demand given the rise in remote work and layoffs.

BREIT’s portfolio is heavily concentrated in properties such as rental housing, warehouses and data centers, with “virtually no” exposure to struggling parts of the market including commodity offices, according to a letter to stockholders.

A major BREIT share class was up 1% in June, bringing its net return over the past year to 2.5%.

Analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said Monday that gains from the deal will help BREIT, but they still hold a “cautious” view on the trust given redemptions and a “tough” operating environment. While the fund hasn’t been a forced seller, the analysts questioned whether BREIT is exiting assets earlier and at a lower price than it would otherwise if it weren’t facing redemption requests.

“Overall the sale represents a good outcome for BREIT that should help performance and liquidity,” KBW’s Michael Brown and Aidan Hall said in the note. “The sale will help provide liquidity to the fund that can be opportunistically deployed into new real estate investment opportunities or to meet redemption requests.”

Recent Sales

The Simply Self Storage transaction is one of the latest sales for BREIT, which has struck deals to offload a resort and spa in San Antonio, Texas, and its stake in a joint venture that owns MGM Grand Las Vegas and the Mandalay Bay. With the storage deal, BREIT has sold, or is under contract to sell, $12 billion of real estate at prices that are, on average, above carrying values, Blackstone said.

The self-storage transaction will allow BREIT to concentrate its focus on its highest growth sectors, according to Nadeem Meghji, head of Blackstone Real Estate Americas. 

Public Storage will expand its reach with Simply Self Storage’s assets, which include 127 wholly owned properties and 25 third-party managed properties, according to a presentation. The deal will boost its presence in the Sun Belt and the company expects it will generate “significant earnings upside,” according to the presentation.

Public Storage has been expanding in recent years, boosting its net rentable square feet by about 55 million since 2019. Earlier this year, Public Storage unsuccessfully sought to purchase Life Storage Inc., which was later bought by Extra Space Storage Inc.

The deal will be funded with unsecured debt, the company said. Public Storage shares climbed 0.6% to $293.48 at 10:16 a.m. in New York, bringing its gains so far this year to 4.7%.

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/24/china-vows-to-optimize-property-policy-in-torturous-economic-recovery.html

China vows to ‘adjust and optimize’ property policy in ‘torturous’ economic recovery

*The Politburo pledges to adapt to “major changes” in the demand-supply dynamics in the property market, with city-specific measures to better meet residents’ essential housing demand and their needs for better housing.

*China’s leaders also pledged to “actively expand domestic demand” and to “expand consumption by raising income levels.”

*The July Politburo meeting typically sets the tone for China’s economic policies for the second half of the year, with market watchers eagerly awaiting firmer guidance on policy support for faltering growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

China’s top leaders pledged to “adjust and optimize policies in a timely manner” for its beleaguered property sector, while elevating stable employment to a strategic goal, along with other pledges to boost domestic consumption demand and resolve local debt risks.

Chaired by President Xi Jinping, the Communist Party’s top decision-making body said it would implement a “counter cyclical” policy and stick largely to a prudent monetary policy and pro-active fiscal policy, according to a readout published late Monday of a quarterly meeting of the Politburo.

The July Politburo meeting typically sets the tone for China’s economic policies for the second half of the year, with market watchers eagerly awaiting firmer guidance on policy support for faltering growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

“Currently, the economy is facing new difficulties and challenges, mainly due to insufficient domestic demand, difficulties in the operation of some enterprises, many risks and hidden dangers in key areas, and a grim and complex external environment,” Xinhua quoted the Politburo as saying.

The post-pandemic economic recovery will proceed in a “wave-like” fashion in a “tortuous” process, it added.

A raft of disappointing economic data last week prompted renewed calls for policy support to bolster growth.

Official data last week showed that China’s second-quarter gross domestic product grew 6.3% from a year ago, marking a 0.8% growth compared to the first quarter — which was dramatically slower than the 2.2% quarter-on-quarter pace recorded in the January to March period.

“While it signaled more support for the economy, the Politburo meeting generally fell short of offering large-scale stimulus,” said economists at Barclays in a note late Monday.

“We view this as a signal that the government would stabilize growth around its target but refrain from an outsized policy response, given the top leaders’ intended shift in focus to ‘quality’ growth,” they added.

Real estate in focus

Observers noted that the Politburo dropped the phrase “housing is for living in, not speculation” from its wording on the country’s real estate sector.

In its place, the Politburo now talks about adapting to “major changes” in the demand-supply dynamics in the property market, with city-specific measures to better meet residents’ essential housing demand and their needs for better housing. It also pledged to “revitalize all types of idling properties.”

The country’s property sector is struggling to emerge from a credit crisis after the government cracked down on its debt levels in Aug. 2020.

Years of exuberant growth led to the construction of ghost towns where supply outstripped demand, as developers looked to capitalize on the desire for home ownership and property investment.

By some calculations, the country’s property sector still accounts for up to a quarter of China’s annual economic activity.

The Politburo on Monday said it is necessary to effectively prevent and resolve the risks of local debts, and formulate and implement a package of debt reduction plans. It also deems “necessary” the strengthening of financial supervision and the steady reform of high-risk small and medium-sized financial institutions.

“We view the July Politburo meeting statement as slightly more dovish than expected, mainly reflected in the neutral statement of the current economic situation, the deletion of ‘housing is for living in, not for speculation’ and the acknowledgment of new developments in the property market,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note late Monday.

“As the July Politburo meeting would set the tone for policy stance in 2H of this year, we think the new assessment of the economic situation, property market and local government debt would imply further policy easing measures in the next few months,” they added.

Expanding domestic demand

China’s leaders pledged to “actively expand domestic demand” and to “expand consumption by raising income levels.”

This is broadly in line with an earlier statement by the National Development and Reform Commission to “restore and expand” consumption in a wide-ranging plan to bolster growth that includes boosting household income, improving business environment for private firms and stabilizing youth employment.

The Politburo also echoed earlier plans to boost consumption in automobiles, electronic products and household consumer goods and services.

China’s leaders pledged to step up government investment, but stopped short of details. It also aims to accelerate the issuance and use of local government special bonds.

“Those hoping for a new approach to stimulus involving greater transfers to households are likely to be disappointed,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said Monday in a note.

“The readout talks about boosting consumption but only indirectly, via supporting household incomes,” he added.

“We understand this to mean that rather than give households handouts, policy efforts should primarily focus on supporting employment, a goal that has now been elevated to a ‘strategically high level.’”

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

Algo no está bien o me pierdo. Sanidad y educación es mucho más que el cuadradito rojo.

Saludos.

El grueso del gasto en educación y sanidad es de las comunidades autónomas. Cataluña gastó en Educación en 2022 7.838 millones de euros, y Andalucía en Sanidad 12.350 millones. En ambos casos mucho más que el gasto estatal.

Es verdad, son competencias transdferidas.


Una duda. Ahí se incluyen los impuestos locales tales como basuras,IBI y demás?

Saludos.

Cada nivel de la administración tiene impuestos propios y presupuestos independientes. El Estado transfiere parte de sus ingresos a otras administraciones, en impuestos que están compartido. Hay un apartado específico, las transferencias a otras administraciones públicas (Europa, autonomías y entidades locales).

Aparece aquí desglosado:
https://dondevanmisimpuestos.es/politicas/94/transferencias-a-otras-admones-publicas#view=functional&year=2023

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-24/cerberus-highgate-miss-payments-on-415-million-hotel-mortgage#xj4y7vzkg

Cerberus, Highgate Miss Payments on $415 Million Hotel Mortgage

Companies have requested an extension, according to reports
Higher insurance costs were weighing on the hotels’ owners

Cerberus Capital Management and Highgate missed two months of payments on a $415 million loan for 30 Courtyard by Marriott hotels, another sign of spreading trouble in commercial real estate.

Cerberus and Highgate have requested an extension of the floating-rate loan, which matured in July, according to a servicer report.[

“Borrower stated that they do not have enough funds to cover the shortage and the regular monthly debt service,” according to the report.

More commercial-property loans have become delinquent as borrowing costs increased. The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities for hotels climbed to 5.35% in June from 4.4% six months earlier, according to Trepp.

The delinquent Courtyard portfolio was facing a higher insurance payment following Hurricane Ian and Tropical Storm Nicole, which struck the US last year, according to the report. Property insurance prices in the US increased by 17% in the first quarter, according to data from Marsh McLennan.

“The default of the Courtyard by Marriott portfolio took us by surprise,” Barclays Plc analysts Lea Overby and Anuj Jain wrote in a note Monday. “This shortage is due to a large hurricane insurance payment, although only three of the 30 are are located in Florida.”

Representatives of Cerberus and Highgate didn’t reply to emails seeking comment.

While lodging demand has enjoyed a robust recovery from Covid lows, hotel owners are facing the same financing challenges as the rest of the commercial real estate industry. In addition to higher borrowing costs, hotel owners delayed renovations during the early part of the pandemic, and the bills for deferred maintenance are coming.

Earlier this month, Ashford Hospitality Trust said it would probably return 19 properties to lenders instead of refinancing the hotels. In June, the owner of two of San Francisco’s largest hotels signaled its intention to walk away from the properties.

Analysts at DBRS Morningstar downgraded their rating outlook to “negative” on part of the Courtyard by Marriott hotels debt last week. Its appraisal of the real estate declined to $331.5 million based on cash flow at the end of 2022 from $675 million in 2018, according to the July 18th note.

Colony Capital, now called DigitalBridge Group Inc., sold the hotels in 2021 as the company sought to shift its focus into properties involved with communications infrastructure.

The loan, which was originally issued in 2018 to Colony, is eligible for two additional one-year extensions through July 9, 2025, according to loan documents.

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

Releñe, nunca había visto esto. Las transferencias a las comunidades autónomas entre 2007 y 2023.

Es la historia de España de los últimos 15 años. El próximo gobierno Sánchez nos va a costar 15.000 millones.

[Saturio]

[...] Verán, creo que parte de la mentira es que nada se acaba. No se acaba el petróleo ni el litio ni el acero ni el suelo cultivable ni el agua ni los trabajadores.
Lo que se acaba es el dinero y lo que crece a pasos agigantados es la impaciencia de los acreedores que ven que no van a poder cobrárselo.

Lo esclavos, perdón curritos sí.



 

Pues según la EPA, de momento no. Prácticamente jamás ha habido tantos curritos en España (20.452.000) y eso con una tasa de actividad no muy alta (58,55) y una tasa de paro todavía en el 13,26.
Ese no es un problema que vayamos a notar en los próximos 5-10 años.

Pero es que además, mundialmente, ese problema es insignificante, cuando el tema de la deuda a amortizar es cientos de órdenes mayor.
Os aseguro que antes estaremos trabajando 60 horas a la semana hasta los 75 que ir negociando con nuestros empleadores como Mbapé.

De momento no, si te crees el censo.

La deuda es problema de los deudores, no de todos. (Salvo la pública.)

La deuda es un problema de todos 1) porque los acreedores querrán cobrarse de donde sea 2) Porque estás más embarrado de lo que piensas.

Puede que tu no tengas ninguna deuda (salvo tu parte de deuda pública, 32.000 euros por cabeza, si te crees el censo). El problema es si la empresa que te paga el sueldo sí la tiene, por ejemplo, y te está pagando con ese endeudamiento. O si tu casero la tiene porque o bien él o su acreedor se van a querer cobrar y la única opción que tienen eres tú.
Y en última instancia si el sistema disfuncional acaba palmando, tú palmas con él. El dedo anular derecho de mi tío Caprasio llevaba una vida muy sana. Pero mi tío Caprasio bebía bastante y acabó con cirrosis. Su dedo anular acabó igual de muerto que el resto de mi tío.

No te digo que no.




Pero sí te digo que a los 32.000 le puedes restar lo que te renten las letras... llegado el caso, podrías hasta ganar.







No me dirás que no.

Sudden, lo que pretendes es que en un vivaz arroyo de montaña que baja a toda pastilla, haya un remanso en el que estás tú con tus letras, tu no hipoteca, tu no alquiler y tus cosas y no te pase nada.

Igual piensas que acabaste indemne de la de 2008. Pero como mínimo has pasado a pagar un tipo general del IVA del 16% a uno del 21.

No sé como te habrá afectado esto porque va por barrios y por comunidades autónomas.



No sé tampoco como te ha afectado la reforma de las pensiones. Ni los incrementos triquiñuelenses de las cotizaciones y bases. Igual has tenido suerte también.

Igual eres uno de esos "privilegiados" que cotizan por el máximo. Supongo que sabrás que desde 2008 la base máxima de cotización ha subido un 45% mientras que el IPC (si te crees el censo) ha subido un 32,8%. Además te acaban de poner el MEI que subirá en el futuro. Frente a eso en 2008 se cobraba una pensión máxima de 33514,18 al año y en 2030 si te jubilas habiendo cotizado prácticamente toda tu vida por el máximo tu pensión será de 48.000 euros (¡Un incremento del 43% en 22 años!) y te aseguro que de aquí a 2030 las bases máximas subirán bastante sin necesidad de más reformas.

Todos estamos de acuerdo ¿no? en que se nos viene otro 2008. No quebrarán tantas promotoras, no bajará tanto la actividad en construcción, la cosa irá por otros sitios pero se estrangularán los canales por los que la pasta riega nuestro sistema.

[muyuu]

no hay ningún tramo a tipo cero en España?? no sé por qué pero estaba seguro de que sí

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://twitter.com/KGeorgieva/status/1680842799082528769

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

La situación de bloqueo en el mercado inmobiliario estadounidense: los propietarios no ponen sus casas a la venta para no perder el tipo de interés pactado en su hipoteca actual.

https://fortune.com/2023/07/22/housing-market-inventory-map-shows-lock-in-effect/amp/

The housing market’s ‘lock-in effect’ is very real—just look at this map

"Financing these at 3% [mortgage rates] then jumping rates to 6% is the same as burning them [the homes] down from a supply perspective"



Throughout the course of the Pandemic Housing Boom, homebuyers were jumping at the opportunity to secure mortgages at ultra-low rates of 2% to 3%, creating a whirlwind of housing market transactions. But now, a growing frustration is seeping into the industry as those once tantalizingly low rates have given way to a stark reality of higher rates and fewer transactions. The cause of this housing market shift? Enter the “lock-In effect,” a term that has real estate professionals sounding the alarm and grappling with the consequences of the abrupt change.

The idea of the “lock-in effect” is that homeowners are reluctant to sell their properties—and buy something new—due to the financial shock that would come with losing their historically low mortgage rates for something with a 6% or 7% handle.

Sean Dobson, founder and CEO of property powerhouse Amherst, might have summed up the frustration the best when he recently tweeted: “Financing these at 3% [mortgage rates] then jumping rates to 6% [rates] is the same as burning them [the homes] down from a supply perspective.”

Dobson, who runs one of the largest owners of U.S. single-family homes, was responding to a map produced by Fortune (see below) showing the huge decline in the number of homes for sale across the country.

This so-called “lock-in effect” is happening just about everywhere. Resilient East Coast markets like Richmond, Va. and Philadelphia saw new listings decline 27% and 26%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. While even Austin, a market still passing through home price correction, saw a 31% year-over-year decline in new listings on realtor.com between June 2022 and June 2023.

According to Realtor.com, there were 26% fewer U.S. homes listed for sale in June 2023 than in June 2022, and 28.9% fewer than in June 2019.

To better understand the lock-in effect, just consider the fact that 91% of mortgage borrowers have an interest rate below 5%, including 70.7% with an interest rate below 4%. For those homeowners, it simply doesn't make a lot of sense to sell and purchase a property right now at a 6% or 7% mortgage rate.

The limited amount of inventory coming onto the market has fueled competition among buyers and caused home prices to rise in the first half of the year—the seasonally strong part of the year—in most markets. Northeast and Midwest markets, in particular, saw stronger than expected home price gains this spring.

However, there are some exceptions.

Just take a glance at Austin's housing market, and you'll see something unusual happening. Despite a sharp 31% decrease in new listings (i.e. homes coming up for a sale in a given month), Austin home prices are still down 13% from the peak, according to Black Knight. The reason behind this intriguing phenomenon lies in the significant increase of overall supply sitting on the market (i.e. active listings) by 47% year-over-year, even as new listings declined. Austin's housing prices had skyrocketed by around 60% in the first two years of the pandemic, resulting in a considerable affordability shock once mortgage rates spiked, causing homes to linger longer on the market. Rather than witnessing a rush of sellers, Austin is experiencing a pileup effect, which is pushing home prices lower there even as most markets inch higher again.

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1669008349940047877

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1682466308779122688

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1682468295444684802

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia_y_finanzas/estupor-city-solo-alianza-pp-psoe-permitiria-espana.html

Estupor en la City: "Sólo una alianza PP-PSOE permitiría hacer lo que necesita España"

Bank of America, Barclays y S&P advierten sobre los efectos económicos de una repetición electoral y del bloqueo político. Los inversores ven como el mejor escenario una gran alianza, aunque son conscientes de que es casi imposible.

El poder económico mira a España  con una mezcla de sorpresa e incredulidad. “España sigue siendo diferente”, resumía ayer Bank of America, uno de los grandes bancos de Wall Street, en una nota remitida a sus clientes tras las elecciones del 23 de julio.

Más cerca, en la City de Londres, entre los grandes inversores internacionales se alienta una coalición entre PP y PSOE, o en su defecto, pactos de Estado entre ambos partidos que garanticen la gobernabilidad para evitar una parálisis en las reformas económicas y el retraso en los desembolsos de los fondos europeos, como trasladan fuentes financieras a Vozpópuli.

Esta era la sensación que se extendía en la resaca electoral entre los círculos financieros de la City, que descuenta que la unión entre los dos grandes partidos político sería la fórmula perfecta para sacar el máximo rendimiento al potencial económico de España.

“Sin duda una gran alianza permitiría hacer lo que el país necesita y a tiempo”, reconoce un alto directivo de uno de los grandes fondos de Londres que pide el anonimato. Se trataría del mejor escenario posible, aunque desde la City son perfectamente conscientes de que es “casi un imposible”, como señalan las fuentes.  (...)

[sudden and sharp]

[...] Verán, creo que parte de la mentira es que nada se acaba. No se acaba el petróleo ni el litio ni el acero ni el suelo cultivable ni el agua ni los trabajadores.
Lo que se acaba es el dinero y lo que crece a pasos agigantados es la impaciencia de los acreedores que ven que no van a poder cobrárselo.

Lo esclavos, perdón curritos sí.



 

Pues según la EPA, de momento no. Prácticamente jamás ha habido tantos curritos en España (20.452.000) y eso con una tasa de actividad no muy alta (58,55) y una tasa de paro todavía en el 13,26.
Ese no es un problema que vayamos a notar en los próximos 5-10 años.

Pero es que además, mundialmente, ese problema es insignificante, cuando el tema de la deuda a amortizar es cientos de órdenes mayor.
Os aseguro que antes estaremos trabajando 60 horas a la semana hasta los 75 que ir negociando con nuestros empleadores como Mbapé.

De momento no, si te crees el censo.

La deuda es problema de los deudores, no de todos. (Salvo la pública.)

La deuda es un problema de todos 1) porque los acreedores querrán cobrarse de donde sea 2) Porque estás más embarrado de lo que piensas.

Puede que tu no tengas ninguna deuda (salvo tu parte de deuda pública, 32.000 euros por cabeza, si te crees el censo). El problema es si la empresa que te paga el sueldo sí la tiene, por ejemplo, y te está pagando con ese endeudamiento. O si tu casero la tiene porque o bien él o su acreedor se van a querer cobrar y la única opción que tienen eres tú.
Y en última instancia si el sistema disfuncional acaba palmando, tú palmas con él. El dedo anular derecho de mi tío Caprasio llevaba una vida muy sana. Pero mi tío Caprasio bebía bastante y acabó con cirrosis. Su dedo anular acabó igual de muerto que el resto de mi tío.

No te digo que no.




Pero sí te digo que a los 32.000 le puedes restar lo que te renten las letras... llegado el caso, podrías hasta ganar.







No me dirás que no.

Sudden, lo que pretendes es que en un vivaz arroyo de montaña que baja a toda pastilla, haya un remanso en el que estás tú con tus letras, tu no hipoteca, tu no alquiler y tus cosas y no te pase nada.

Igual piensas que acabaste indemne de la de 2008. Pero como mínimo has pasado a pagar un tipo general del IVA del 16% a uno del 21.

No sé como te habrá afectado esto porque va por barrios y por comunidades autónomas.



No sé tampoco como te ha afectado la reforma de las pensiones. Ni los incrementos triquiñuelenses de las cotizaciones y bases. Igual has tenido suerte también.

Igual eres uno de esos "privilegiados" que cotizan por el máximo. Supongo que sabrás que desde 2008 la base máxima de cotización ha subido un 45% mientras que el IPC (si te crees el censo) ha subido un 32,8%. Además te acaban de poner el MEI que subirá en el futuro. Frente a eso en 2008 se cobraba una pensión máxima de 33514,18 al año y en 2030 si te jubilas habiendo cotizado prácticamente toda tu vida por el máximo tu pensión será de 48.000 euros (¡Un incremento del 43% en 22 años!) y te aseguro que de aquí a 2030 las bases máximas subirán bastante sin necesidad de más reformas.

Todos estamos de acuerdo ¿no? en que se nos viene otro 2008. No quebrarán tantas promotoras, no bajará tanto la actividad en construcción, la cosa irá por otros sitios pero se estrangularán los canales por los que la pasta riega nuestro sistema.

Yo sólo me preocupo de lo que está en mi mano, en general.

Si de deudas hablamos, sólo de las mías, en su caso.

Si de crisis, de lo que pueda hacer por mí y por mi entorno.

Si de propaganda metemiedo, pues trato de contrarrestarla.

Y no, no estamos en 2008. A la vista está.

[sudden and sharp]

Mira Saturio... esto sí es un ataque:

Desorientación en Madrid DF
Enric Juliana

Madrid DF estaba ayer por la mañana irritado y desorientado, como si le hubiesen quitado algo que ya era suyo.

(Vamos a emplear la expresión Madrid DF para nombrar el sistema de poder, económico, financiero, mediático y demoscópico que se articula en la capital de España bajo la atenta mirada de la Comunidad de Madrid. No hay que confundir Madrid DF con los ciudadanos de Madrid, un cuerpo social muy diverso, en el que las opciones de derecha son hoy predominantes, aunque no de manera absoluta. Esta vez, la distancia entre Partido Popular y PSOE ha sido de 450.000 votos a favor de los populares, gracias a la desaparición de Ciudadanos En las anteriores generales, noviembre del 2019, ganó el PSOE por 70.000. Sumar ha adelantado a Vox por unos 50.000 votos).

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Desorientación en Madrid DF
https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20230725/9131830/desorientacion-madrid-df.html


No señor Juliana, Madrid NO es un distrito federal. Ni lo va a ser.

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

Estamos en un país en el que ni la élite, ni los más sabios, ni los mejor informados, que saben perfectamente lo que viene y lo que necesita la nación, defienden que ante una situación de crisis que pronto puede convertirse en una emergencia económica, social y territorial, plantean la salida de colaboración entre las dos principales fuerzas, que tienen la legitimidad y la capacidad de gobernar, y reúnen una mayoría constitucional sólida para enfrentar la tempestad que se avecina.

Yo me rindo. Y mucho me temo que los poderes que manejan el mundo se van a dividir entre los que estén planteando un plan B a la yugoslava o midiendo los despojos para obtener las máximas ventajas geoestratégicas. En 2025 nos enseñan la salida, y España no tiene recursos para sobrevivir como potencia de 2º orden.