PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2023

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

Los sardás y los dexeuses siempre creen que no es eso, y siempre terminan en Burgos.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-new-home-sales-fall-june-trend-remains-firmer-2023-07-26/

U.S. new home sales fall in June; trend remains firmer

WASHINGTON, July 26 (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell in June, but the trend remains strong as an acute shortage of previously owned homes underpins demand.

New home sales dropped 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 697,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. May's sales pace was revised lower to 715,000 units from the previously reported 763,000 units.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for a small share of U.S. home sales, dropping to a rate of 725,000 units.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-new-home-sales-tumble-june-prices-tumble

US New Home Sales Tumble In June, Prices Tumble

After three straight months of huge resurgence (with last month's massive spike), new home sales were expected to slow down in June and they did. New home sales dropped 2.5% MoM (the first drop since Feb), a miss from the 5% expected, but only because last month's 12.2% surge in sales was revised down to a 6.6% rise...



The huge downward revisions make a mockery of the last few months data that has been used as a crutch by bulls to support their case that the housing market is 'fine' despite the collapse in existing home sales...



New home sales are still up almost 24% YoY but the total new home sales SAAR plunged in June - is this the start of the catch-down to existing home-sales slump?



Median new home price fell 4.0% y/y to $415,400; average selling price at $494,700.

Other data - from the US Census Bureau - shows the first half of 2023 has seen the largest decline in US home prices on record...



Finally, we ask, if homebuilders are so bullish on this recovery in new home sales, why aren't they grabbing permits to build with both hands?



Have they reached the limits of incentivization?



With mortgage rates back at cycle highs - well above 7.00% - the cost of 'vendor-financing' new home sales will eat into margins sooner rather than later.

[copo]

Saludos a todos en estos días tan curiosos.

Estaba preguntándome si hay algún post en el pasado de asustadísimos o ppcc donde elabora más en el modelo de planificación central capitalista.

Se supone que parte sería la provisión de vivienda. Pero además de eso ... empresa publica / nacionalización de banca?

Con las mimbres que tenemos, como iba a funcionar? Con altos funcionarios de CEOs? Porque si son los políticos los que van a hacerse cargo pues para eso ya teníamos las cajas de ahorro.

Los estados occidentales ya controlan el 40% o más de la renta nacional a través de impuestos. Mas por el lado del gasto público, porque gastan más que lo que ingresan.. Casi toda la actividad económica ya esta regulada por el estado, quedando fuera solo la economía ilegal como las drogas o actividades fuera de mercado como las que se producen en familia sin contraprestación, o actividades voluntarias. Y la economía ilegal está en el fondo superregulada pues no está sujeta a la justicia civil, sino a la criminal. La política monetaria, salud, educación, defensa, policía, justicia y pensiones estan mayoritariamente nacionalizadas.

No veo que se vaya a nacionalizar la agricultura u hostelería. Entonces, que queda para el estado 'fuerte'? Porque no estamos en 1910, con pesos del estado del 10% sobre el PIB. No tenemos estados diminutos o sin recursos. Hay ciertas diferencias en Europa por ejemplo entre el peso del Estado de UK o Espana vs Francia o Dinamarca. La diferencia no es cualitativa, sino cuantitativa. Mas o menos del 38% UK al 50 o 52% en Francia. Es Francia el ejemplo + pisos publicos? Porque contentos tampoco se les ve.

No lo digo simplemente por discutir, sino por genuina curiosidad. En la práctica, sería política industrial pública + vivienda pública? Algo así como el MITI japonés de los 1960 y 70 mas construcción de council houses como en UK en los 1940 y 50? O es también acceso a datos privados e intervención estatal en universidades, consejos de empresas privadas etc a lo China.

P.S. me estaba acordando de esa crítica a Marx, cuando dicen que explica muy bien por qué el capitalismo se acabaría pero sin explicar mucho como es el modelo alternativo, y se acaba con Lenin, Mao, Castro y Kim Il Sung

Así lo veo yo. Nunca el Estado ha tenido tanto control del país mediante impuestos y leyes. Casi todo está regulado y como bien dices el estado recauda el 42% del PIB y gasta el 46% del PIB. Vamos, que de cada euro, medio pasa por las manos del Estado. ¿En serio que el Estado está indefenso respecto la burbuja? ¿No puede hacer nada? Pero si Franco con un Estado paupérrimo consiguió financiar barrios nuevos por todo el país facilitando la vivienda a todo el mundo. ¿Porqué un Estado que se considera social, que lo tiene todo regulado y que gasta y bombea cincuenta céntimos de cada euro que se mueve, que posee más herramientas que nunca, no puede controlar una burbuja?
 

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-july-26-150040841.html

Fed set to resume rate hikes after June pause

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates Wednesday by a quarter percentage point after taking a break last month.

A 0.25% rate hike would bring the Fed’s policy rate, the fed funds rate, to a new range of 5.25%-5.5%, the highest level in 22 years; Wednesday's rate hike will mark the 11th increase since March 2022.

With no new interest rate projections or economic forecasts released this meeting, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jay Powell and his outlook for monetary policy.

Powell is likely to talk tough on inflation and suggest another rate hike in September could be possible as the central bank works to bring inflation back to its 2% target. The Fed now expects inflation to end the year closer to 4%, up from 3.6% previously and nearly double its inflation target.(...)

[Derby]

Los directivos tienen sus incentivos en forma de bonus y acciones de la compañía...El mercado no va solo, no.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/26/business/food-prices-fed-inflation.html

Big Consumer Companies Keep Raising Prices, Complicating Fed’s Job

Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and Unilever have each reported raising prices significantly in the second quarter, complicating the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation.

Some of the largest consumer brands in the country have continued to raise prices aggressively this year while raking in large profits, posing a tough problem for the Federal Reserve as it aims to tame inflation.

Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and Unilever have each reported raising prices significantly in the second quarter, from about 8 percent at Unilever to 15 percent at Pepsi. The price increases powered sales growth last quarter, keeping earnings strong even as the volume of products they sold either went down or remained flat versus the same period last year. The companies raised their full-year forecasts for various measures, pushing up their share prices.

The Fed’s main tool to tackle inflation is raising interest rates, which reduces demand for goods and services. But food prices can be particularly sticky: Unlike other goods, consumers cannot stop buying food, and food prices are particularly sensitive to external factors like supply shocks, ingredient prices and geopolitics. Escalating Russian attacks in Ukraine and the recent breakdown of a deal to export grain from Black Sea ports have put pressure on prices for key commodities like corn and wheat.

“The Fed really has no ability to resolve those issues,” said David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University.

Prices for consumer goods in the United States have moderated, though inflation is still higher than the Federal Reserve’s goal. Food prices rose 5.7 percent over the year through June, according to the Consumer Price Index.

Coca-Cola on Wednesday said that its profit rose 33 percent last quarter, to $2.5 billion, from the same period the year before. “In a world with a wide spectrum of market dynamics from inflation to currency devaluation to shifting consumer needs, our business is proving to be very resilient,” James Quincey, Coca-Cola’s chief executive, told analysts on a call.

Unilever, which makes products ranging from Dove soap to Hellmann’s mayonnaise, on Tuesday reported 20 percent growth in profit, to $5 billion, in the first half of the year, compared with the same period last year.

Unilever’s ice cream brands, which include Ben & Jerry’s and Magnum, have become particularly more expensive: Prices were up more than 12 percent while the amount sold was down about 6 percent in the second quarter.

PepsiCo, which makes Gatorade sports drinks, Lay’s potato chips and Quaker Oats, reported this month that its second-quarter revenue grew 10 percent and its profit doubled, to $2.7 billion, compared with the same time last year.

The companies have cited a strong labor market, in which wages are growing, as source of increased spending.

“We’ve been able to raise prices and consumers stay within our brands,” Ramon Laguarta, chief executive of Pepsi, said on a call with analysts.

However, Unilever’s chief financial officer, Graeme Pitkethly, told analysts on Tuesday that “sentiment is dropping and consumers are starting to show signs of caution” with more consumers turning to generic brands.

[Derby]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/26/economy/england-homelessness-increase/index.html

This measure of homelessness in England has reached a 25-year high

London CNN — The number of households living in temporary accommodation in England has hit its highest level since at least 1998, according to official data.

Close to 105,000 households were living in temporary accommodation — such as a hostel or a room in a shared house — in the first quarter of 2023, up 10% from the same period last year, and the highest number since the government started keeping records 25 years ago, the UK housing department said Tuesday.

Local authorities in England have a duty to provide accommodation for households that have become “unintentionally homeless.” While authorities process a household’s application for housing, they often provide temporary accommodation.(...)

The UK government said Monday that it was on track to hit a target of 1 million new homes over five years by January 2025, when the next general election is due to be held. The figure refers to homes in England, the department told CNN Wednesday.

“Once again, we see the crippling cost that years of no investment in housing benefit, and a shameful lack of social house building, is having by trapping families in temporary accommodation,” Matt Downie, chief executive at Crisis, said in a statement Tuesday.

“Not only do people not have the stability and security of a home, but they’re often left to cope in just one room, with no facilities to cook meals or do washing.”

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/7384e5f8-47f1-4f9a-80d9-2ba688550283

What China’s economic measures mean in practice

Details scant in politburo statement but markets welcome acknowledgment by Xi Jinping of growth headwinds

Chinese stocks staged their biggest one-day rally since November after a call by China’s leaders for strong “countercyclical” measures to support the world’s second-largest economy, despite what economists said was a lack of detail in Beijing’s plans.

President Xi Jinping’s 24-member politburo, the Communist party’s leading decision-making body, flagged the highly indebted property sector and local governments, as well as lagging domestic demand, at its quarterly meeting on the economy on Monday.

Property stocks in particular soared on Tuesday. But while the overall message was supportive, economists said it provided few details and no sign of the kind of “big bang” stimulus China has implemented in the past. China’s post-Covid recovery lost steam in the second quarter, with growth missing analysts’ expectations.

“It’s a statement of intent providing code words for potentially looser policy settings, but it’s not clear how much muscle will be put behind the stimulus measures,” said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC.

Xi drops slogan against property speculation

Politburo statement: “The government must adapt to the new situation in which the dynamic of supply and demand in the property market is changing significantly . . .  The meeting also urged expanding the supply of government-subsidised housing and renovation of urban villages.”

At the last politburo meeting on the economy in April, which followed more robust first-quarter growth, the readout included the stock Xi Jinping phrase: “Houses are for living in, not for speculation.”

This policy and the government’s desire to curb leverage in the economy are one reason for the deep slowdown in the real estate sector in recent years as banks reduce lending to the industry.

But at Monday’s politburo meeting, the phrase was replaced with more supportive language, acknowledging that “the relationship between supply and demand” in the sector is changing and policies should be “optimised” in a “timely manner”. It said “city-specific” measures should be implemented to better meet “residents’ essential housing demand” and urged the expansion of government-subsidised housing.

This might signal a relaxation of restrictions on home purchases in “Tier-1” cities such as Beijing and Shanghai that were originally imposed to limit speculation. Such a move would “release pent-up demand and stabilise market expectations”, Morgan Stanley economist Robin Xing said in an analyst note.

Tackle local government debt

Politburo statement: “The meeting also urged . . . defusing local government debt risks with a package of plans.”

The politburo hinted at structural reforms to fix local government debt through “a package of debt resolution plans”. Local government’s colossal debts — including those of local government finance vehicles — are estimated by Goldman Sachs at about Rmb94tn ($13.1tn), and are seen as a constraint on growth.

The guidance, which provided few details, indicates that despite the economic slowdown Beijing remains keen to stick with the policy of debt reduction outlined in the last meeting in April.

“It means that local debt resolution has entered a critical period,” said Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities. The government was unlikely to offer massive debt swaps as it did in 2015, Zhong said, as this would only increase leverage. It might instead tackle the problem province by province, he said.

“We expect state and policy banks to take on a more active role in resolving these debt risks at the local government level,” said Louise Loo, lead economist at Oxford Economics.

Make employment a high priority

Politburo statement: “It is necessary to increase the protection of people’s livelihood . . . and raise the issue of stabilising employment to a strategic height.”

With youth unemployment in China hitting 21.3 per cent in June — the highest since the data series began in 2018, the politburo underlined the need to tackle employment.

The politburo did not say what it planned to do to reduce unemployment, which economists attributed to a shortage of suitable jobs for this year’s record number of graduates and the damage to the services sector from the pandemic.

But in a move that could help create jobs, Beijing pledged to “optimise” the environment for private enterprises and spur foreign investment. “We see this as a part of the government’s efforts to restore private confidence and revive animal spirits, a key to sustaining productivity growth amid secular challenges from demographics, debt and de-risking,” Morgan Stanley said.

Get people spending again

Politburo statement: “The meeting also . . . called for precise and effective control of macroeconomic measures, including proactive fiscal and prudent monetary policies.”

The party leaders indicated that monetary and fiscal policy would remain supportive but provided no figures and few details. The government has already eased policy interest rates, cut its bank reserve requirement ratio to introduce more liquidity into the system, and provided some tax breaks to businesses.

Economists forecast small rate cuts before the end of the year and another RRR cut by 25 to 50 basis points. “Broadly the language around monetary policy is similar in the July statement compared to April,” said Oxford Economics’ Loo. “So we do not expect major loosening in this area.”

The government is also expected to roll out subsidies for consumers to buy more cars, electronics and home appliances, helping the industry to clear inventories built up last year and step up manufacturing.

Keeping recovery on track without much stimulus

Politburo statement: “The meeting called for carrying out macroeconomic regulation with precision and force, stepping up countercyclical measures, and making more policy options available.”

Overall, economists believe that the government wants to ensure it meets its growth target of 5 per cent for 2023, without racking up another huge wave of debt-fuelled stimulus in the process.

In recent weeks, the government has announced at least four separate plans aimed at everything from attracting more private capital to boosting electric vehicle ownership and the purchase of consumer goods, according to a note by Carlos Casanova, senior economist at UBP. The measures should “result in a broadening of the economic recovery”, he said.

This year’s growth has been flattered by the negative impact of Covid lockdowns on activity in 2022. The tricky part might be ensuring a reasonable level of growth into 2024, when the economy will not benefit from a low base effect, economists say.

Already economists are looking towards the third plenum of the 20th party congress, a key meeting later this year for more details of the government’s medium-term plans, economists say. “The third plenum in the fall should be an opportunity to think about the structural issues,” said HSBC’s Neumann.

[sudden and sharp]

[Derby]

https://think.ing.com/snaps/german-economy-in-a-slowcession-needs-new-reform-agenda/

The German economy is in a ‘slowcession’ and needs a new reform agenda

Another drop in Germany's most prominent leading indicator, the Ifo index, confirms that the economy is back on a downward trend before any upward trend had actually started. The case for a new reform agenda 2030 is getting stronger

The rebound that never was.

Remember at the start of the year, some observers took a more optimistic stance on the German economy? Supported by the mild winter weather, the reopening of the Chinese economy and the misconception that having avoided the worst automatically leads to a decent upswing, the mood in Germany brightened. Half a year later, the reality is presenting an inconvenient truth: the economy is stuck in the twilight zone between stagnation and recession – a so-called ‘slowcession’ – and is in urgent need of a new reform agenda.

Third consecutive montly drop in Ifo index

The just-released latest Ifo index confirms the picture of a ‘slowcession’. After a six-month expansion at the start of the year, Germany’s most prominent leading indicator has now dropped for the third consecutive month, coming in at 87.5 in July, from 88.5 in June. The weaker-than-hoped-for Chinese reopening, a looming US recession and ongoing monetary policy tightening seem to be weighing on German company sentiment. The growing feeling that Germany is in for a longer period of subdued growth also seems to have reached German business. Both the current assessment and the expectations component fell. Expectations are now as low as at the end of last year, while the current assessment component is as low as in late 2020.

Stuck in the twillight zone between stagnation and recession

The optimism at the start of the year seems to have given way to more of a sense of reality. A drop in purchasing power, thinned-out industrial order books, as well as the impact of the most aggressive monetary policy tightening in decades, and the expected slowdown of the US economy, all argue in favour of weak economic activity. On top of these cyclical factors, the ongoing war in Ukraine, demographic changes, and the current energy transition will structurally weigh on the German economy in the coming years. However, all is not bleak. The stuttering Chinese rebound could easily bring some temporary positive surprises as well. Also, the drop in headline inflation and the actual fall in energy and food prices combined with higher wages should support private consumption in the second half of the year.

Next week, we will get a first estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter. A third straight quarter of contraction can no longer be excluded. The second half of the year looks no better. Confidence indicators have worsened and hard data are going nowhere. We continue to expect the German economy to remain at a de facto standstill and to slightly shrink this year before staging a meagre growth rebound in 2024.

The case for a 'reform agenda 2030'

Leaving aside the short-term outlook, the current economic situation in Germany looks eerily familiar to that of 20 years ago. Back then, the country was going through the five stages of grief, or, in an economic context, the five stages of change: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. From being called ‘The sick man of the euro’ by The Economist in 1999 and early 2000s (which created an outcry of denial and anger) to endless discussions and TV debates (which revelled in melancholy and self-pity) to an eventual plan for structural reform in 2003 known as the 'Agenda 2010', introduced by then Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. It took several years before international media outlets were actually applauding the new German Wirtschaftswunder in the 2010s.

Germany’s international competitiveness had already deteriorated before the pandemic but this deterioration has clearly gained further momentum in recent years. Supply chain frictions, the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis have exposed the structural weaknesses of Germany’s economic business model, and come on top of already weak digitalisation, crumbling infrastructure and demographic changes. These structural challenges are not new but will continue to shape the country’s economic outlook, which is already looking troubled in the near term. Judging from the current public and political debate in Germany, the denial stage is over and the country is somewhere between bargaining and depression. However, as illustrated by the discussion on a return to fiscal austerity next year, there doesn’t seem to be a full sense of urgency, yet.

In the early 2000s, the trigger for Germany to move into the final stage of change management, 'acceptance' (and solutions), was record-high unemployment. The structural reforms implemented back then were, therefore, mainly aimed at the labour market. At the current juncture, it is hard to see this single trigger point. In fact, a protracted period of de facto stagnation without a severe recession may reduce the sense of urgency among decision-makers and suggests Germany could be stuck in the stages of denial, anger, bargaining and possibly depression for a long time. However, the current mix of policy uncertainty, weak electorate support for the government coalition in polls and the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party in recent polls suggests that the time for a positive reform agenda 2030 has come.

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

[BENDITALIQUIDEZ]

Pirámide, de más alto a más bajo:

- Cabeza de león.
- Cola de león.
- Cabeza de ratón.
- Cola de ratón.

La cabeza del león: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1681408538189414409?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1681408538189414409%7Ctwgr%5E221ed168cd39009c217902dec1057db3d425a467%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fbaltimore-hit-office-tower-price-crash-firesale-erupts



La cola del león: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/i-see-wave-coming-assessed-value-baltimore-city-office-tower-nearly-halved-amid-cre-panic

The second tower on E. Pratt St. sold for $25 million. It was once valued at $80 million in 2018.

¿La cabeza y la cola del ratón qué tal? bien, gracias.

[sudden and sharp]

Ni tan mal. (Gracias por preguntar.)

[sudden and sharp]

La Reserva Federal sube los tipos a máximos de 22 años
https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2023-07-26/la-reserva-federal-sube-los-tipos-a-maximos-de-22-anos.html
El banco central de EE UU eleva las tasas 25 puntos básicos hasta el 5,25%-5,5%




NO SE SUICIDEN TODAVÍA...


Las energéticas triplican sus márgenes desde la pandemia, hasta los 97.800 millones de euros

La productora de Ana Rosa Quintana pagará 1,5 millones en dividendo tras ingresar 29 millones

Air Europa apunta a un beneficio récord a final de año y asegura que devolverá la deuda

Stellantis registra cifras récord en el primer semestre de 2023 y gana casi 11.000 millones





... entre otras en:

https://cincodias.elpais.com/

[sudden and sharp]

[ C.U.N.T. = Idiota.  (Mahomenoh.)  ]