PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2023

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/25/op-ed-less-affordable-homes-dont-just-ruin-american-dreams-theyre-a-threat-to-the-economy.html

Op-Ed: Less affordable homes don’t just ruin American dreams, they’re a threat to the economy

Being able to buy a home keeps getting harder.

The National Association of Realtors said earlier this month that its housing affordability index fell during the second quarter to its lowest level on record. The reading came in at 92.7 compared with 101.8 in the first quarter. It’s also well below a 180.4 level reached in 2021.

A reading of 100 signals that families earning the median income have the amount of money needed to buy a median-priced home. A reading below points to insufficient median family income to buy a home. The data goes back to 1986.

Incredibly, housing is now less affordable than it was prior to the Great Financial Crisis — when a complete breakdown in lending standards led to a frenzy of speculation that ended in a 33% peak-to-trough decline in housing prices (based on the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City home price index) from July 2006 to April 2009.

Should this make us nervous?



The decline in housing affordability has obviously been highly influenced by the huge increase in mortgage rates, which are now around 7.2%, according to data from Freddie Mac. That’s compared to an average of 4% from the end of the Great Recession in 2009 until the end of 2021.

In fact, current mortgage rates are nearly triple the level they were at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021 — when they bottomed out at around 2.7%. Not coincidentally, the first quarter of 2021 turned out to the be peak in housing affordability.

Since then, housing prices are up 28% despite the massive increase in interest rates. Median household income, which is currently growing at roughly the pre-Covid rate, has not grown nearly fast enough to offset the spike in mortgage rates and the increase in housing prices. The consequence has been the massive drop in housing affordability to new lows.

I know all the arguments.

A Wall Street Journal article on Wednesday entitled “How High a Rate Can Housing Take?” by Justin Lahart read: “On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors reported that there were just 980,000 existing single-family homes for sale last month. That was the fewest during the month of July—normally a time of year when a lot of homes are on the block—on record stretching back to 1982.”

Housing prices remain elevated because there is an extreme lack of supply. Inventories of homes for sale are very low because nobody wants to move and give up their 3% mortgage. The trend toward “work-from-home” is another factor causing homeowners to remain in place and therefore suppressing housing inventory.

It will take years to bring housing supply back in line with demand because new home construction has been insufficient since the great financial crisis. Lending standards have improved dramatically since before the GFC.

The typical homeowner has much more equity than in the past. Interest rates should start coming down next year as it becomes clearer than inflation is on a sustainable path lower to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. And so on.

All of this is likely true. But still, housing affordability is as low as it’s been since at least 1986. Many prospective first-time buyers are at risk of getting locked out of the market forever if something doesn’t change.

Can insufficient supply alone keep housing prices elevated in the face of such a big increase in borrowing costs? Is it realistic to think everyone will remain in place indefinitely just to keep their low mortgage rate, thereby preventing a flood of supply hitting the market? Will political pressure on the Fed compel the central bank to cut rates more quickly, thereby improving affordability?

These are all important questions, and I don’t have all the answers. My suspicion is that some combination of labor market softening, tighter bank lending standards, capital markets volatility and rising mortgage rates will bring an end to the Fed’s interest rate hikes sooner rather than later. Since as long as I can remember, the Fed has always chosen the path of least pain, and I don’t think this time will be any different.

If this means the Fed will implicitly adopt an inflation target above 2% for a short period, then I think that’s what is likely to happen. But ultimately, I continue to believe that the Fed’s interest-rate hikes to date will prove more than enough to slow the economy, reduce inflation to target and potentially induce a recession.

The “long and variable lag” has proven longer than expected, in no small part because homeowners wisely locked in super-low mortgage rates when they had the chance. But fixed-rate mortgages won’t be enough to nullify the impact of 525 basis points of interest-rate hikes in a historically short period of time.

Given its importance to the wider economy, a robust housing market will likely be a precondition to achieving a relatively seamless transition to long-term economic expansion. The housing affordability crunch is, and looks to continue to be, a risk factor that could not only hold back the economy’s growth potential but also cause a financial crisis if left unchecked. So, add another ball to the Fed’s juggling act.

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

https://www.elpais.cr/2023/08/25/el-vaticano-quiere-obtener-el-estatus-de-observador-ante-el-grupo-brics/

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.diariovasco.com/san-sebastian/100-euros-dormir-hotel-capsula-donostia-20230823064955-nt.html

Saludos.

[Reiter]

Brazil proposes yuan guarantees for exports to Argentina, finance minister says

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/brazil-proposes-yuan-guarantees-exports-argentina-finance-minister-says-2023-08-23/

Lo que no entiendo, dado que los BRICS son una suma de países desastrosos y sus iniciativas no son una amenaza para quienes ostentan el poder ahora, a qué viene este clásico de la negociación relajada y respetuosa.




https://twitter.com/GunterFehlinger/status/1695038452335571055

SPEAKER BIOGRAPHY

Gunther Fehlinger, 51 from Linz, Austria, married, 2 children is WU Vienna graduate MA International Trade, is serving as Secretary General of CEE BC, the voice of FDI & SME Business Associations in Central Eastern Europe, #SEE, #EaP & #CA & publishes CEE Newsletter cee-bc.org/en/news-2 Gunther worked as General Secretary of SME UNION, and before for Business Europe, in Brussels for 6 years & since 05 as development & investment consultant in Albania, Montenegro, Kosovo, Northern Macedonia, Moldova and is based in Ukraine since 2016. Gunther serves as President of Europeans for Tax Reform & twitters for ETR @GunterFehlinger
Gunther was a Austrian & European Student leader & EDS Chairman and is 30 years advocate of EU, NATO, Euro, EU Customs Union, CEFTA, RCC enlargement to include free Eastern Europe in #West and focuses now on Ukraine and Balkans Integration and economic reform to complete Europe #EU37 & #NATO42 #Euro34 and #EAP13 Gunther can be reached @www.linkedin.com/in/fehlinger
Secretary General
CEE-BC
Uniting the Business Community of WB6-EaP-CA

https://ime-europe.eu/speakers/mr-gunther-fehlinger/

[sudden and sharp]

[...] Lo que no entiendo, dado que los BRICS son una suma de países desastrosos y sus iniciativas no son una amenaza para quienes ostentan el poder ahora, a qué viene este clásico de la negociación relajada y respetuosa.

No, los BRICS son una promesa. Una promesa de que lo van a hacer muy bien... mucho mejor que los "anglos" --necesito aquí una (buena) definición*--; y por tanto, una apuesta.

No han hecho nada, (todavía,) pero se van a comer el mundo. Lo compras o no lo compras.






----
*) Si no es buena de verdad, ni os molestéis.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12419035/08/23/necesario-freno-de-sareb-a-la-okupacion.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12419159/08/23/el-15-de-los-pisos-sociales-de-sareb-estan-okupados-por-familias-no-vulnerables.html

Como viene apuntando sudden and sharp últimamente, lo mollar del artículo se encuentra al final del mismo:

La nueva actividad social que lleva a cabo Sareb genera valor para la compañía. Concretamente, estiman en 350 millones de euros el impacto de este programa en la revalorización de la cartera de Sareb.

“Sin gestión social tenemos gastos de mantenimiento, de comunidad, de Ibi y eso, según los estudios que hemos realizado arroja una pérdida directa de 1.540 euros por vivienda al año”, detalla la compañía. Sin embargo, para las vivienda bajo el nuevo modelo de alquilersocial, “en el que hemos fijado una renta de unos 195 euros al mes, logramos unos ingresos de 2.340 euros al año. En este caso tenemos más gastos ya que pagamos los mediadores sociales, pero a cambio tenemos los ingresos del alquiler, con un nivel de morosidad del 8%. Eso arroja un saldo modesto, pero positivo de 92 euros”.

Esto se refleja en el valor de la cartera, ya que las carteras okupadas de forma irregular tienen un descuento de mercado del 65%. Por el contrario, carteras con personas vulnerables, pero comprometidas a mejorar su situación, tienen un descuento de solo 30-35%.

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/banca-finanzas/noticias/12418988/08/23/la-banca-llega-al-pico-de-tipos-a-la-mitad-de-rentabilidad-que-en-sus-maximos.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/12418614/08/23/llegan-los-datos-de-inflacion-y-empleo-de-fin-de-mes-el-gran-reto-para-el-bce-y-la-fed.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/12418948/08/23/la-crisis-china-hunde-al-yuan-mas-de-lo-que-cayo-con-la-devaluacion-de-2015.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230826/page/26/textview

La curva se desinvierte: ya casi da lo mismo el bono a 10 años que la letra

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230826/page/27/textview

Powell convence al mercado de una última subida de tipos

[Vipamo]

[...] Lo que no entiendo, dado que los BRICS son una suma de países desastrosos y sus iniciativas no son una amenaza para quienes ostentan el poder ahora, a qué viene este clásico de la negociación relajada y respetuosa.

No, los BRICS son una promesa. Una promesa de que lo van a hacer muy bien... mucho mejor que los "anglos" --necesito aquí una (buena) definición*--; y por tanto, una apuesta.

No han hecho nada, (todavía,) pero se van a comer el mundo. Lo compras o no lo compras.






----
*) Si no es buena de verdad, ni os molestéis.

La angloesfera son aquellos países donde la mayoría natural tienen a los Rolling Stones en un pedestal y casi nadie ha escuchado a Mulatu Astatke.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230826/page/28/textview

Europa arrasa a EEUU en firmas con 'triple A' en sostenibilidad

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/industria/noticias/12419234/08/23/la-vuelta-de-arcelormittal-a-eeuu-sumaria-36-plantas-y-20000-millones-en-ventas-si-compra-us-steel-.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/flash/20230825/#flash_40629

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230826/page/40/textview

Alemania confirma que su PIB se estancó en el segundo trimestre

Saludos.