PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2023

[berberecho]

En España nadie hace propuestas democráticas, toda vez que España no es una democracia. Venía siendo una partitocracia (en el Congreso, bastaría con sólo el líder de cada partido con representación, con "puntos", en lugar de escaños, para hacer las votaciones. Lo que pasa es que sería demasiado evidente para el rebaño). En un sistema democrático moderno -la democracia pura no es viable- no podríamos hablar de "transfugas", pues cada diputado sería libre de votar como le parezca, de acuerdo a quienes le han elegido y ante los que debe responder.

No obstante, con esta última propuesta de "ahora me pongo yo y luego te dejo a ti" ya sería otra cosa. Es como decir, "macho, con la que se nos viene no seas cabrón, vamos a comérnoslo a medias. Empiezo yo, venga". Algo así como declarar a los cuatro vientos que España (en particular la Soberanía) es suya, su huerto, su pvta. Tal es el nivel de degeneración al que se ha llegado, que ya la supuesta élite puede decirlo sin sonrojarse y la mayoría del personal no siente ninguna extrañeza. Es que están negociando, dirán. Es triste, pero creo que lo único que no se permite hacer ni un sólo líder político es apuntar al pisito/pensiones. Eso sí que no. Lo demás da igual, hace mucho tiempo que los partidos políticos no tienen ningún tipo de ideología.

[Derby]

https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/grievance-and-reform/

Grievance and Reform



The precursor of 2022’s energy crisis was 2020–2021’s vaccine apartheid. These shortages were in no way natural but reflected financial and geopolitical hierarchies: those with more power and resources bid up prices and developing countries lost out in the process. In the case of vaccines, millions of lives were lost. The energy crisis too is a question of life and death. Expensive gas-powered air conditioners in Europe subsidized with nearly a trillion euros of deficit-financing really did mean lights out for millions of Pakistanis and Bangladeshis.

In both these cases, developing countries were reminded that the existing world order is rigged against them. Global inequality rose sharply. Their shortages of money (especially the right kind of money) and inability to borrow cheaply put them at the back of the queue. The grim fact that the West not only denied poor countries IP for technology to make their own mRNA vaccines in the hour of distress, but hoarded vaccines past their sell-by date, revealed the system’s bankruptcy. Ajay Banga, the new World Bank chief, described the growing mistrust “pulling the Global North and South apart at a time when we need to be uniting.”

BRICS

On August 24, more than sixty leaders of the largest developing countries met at the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, chaired by South African President Ramaphosa. High on the meeting’s agenda were multilateralism, reform, and sustainable development. Brazil’s President Lula Inácio da Silva, who founded the BRICS group in 2009, bluntly summarized: “We cannot accept a green neocolonialism that imposes trade barriers and protectionist policies under the pretext of protecting the environment.” By the summit’s end the group had announced six new members: Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.

China’s role as a security rival to the US—and that of Russia as a pariah state—dominated coverage of the summit. But efforts to depict these two BRICS states as orchestrating the rest of the developing world behind an anti-US, anti-G7, agenda are unconvincing. For one, they fail to account for the “demand side” of that equation: why are so many countries willing to join BRICS?



Developing countries are not passive victims in the polycrisis; they are actively trying to wrestle some control over their destinies and direction of the world order. BRICS is one arena in which these countries can operate. The UN, where many of the same countries abstained from votes on sanctioning Russia for invading Ukraine, is another. In his speech at the summit, Lula affirmed that the BRICS agenda to reform the global economic order will continue at the G20 (which was led by Indonesia last year and by India this year, and will be led by Brazil in 2024). Where countries find they cannot achieve meaningful reform, they are threatening to exit the dominant multilaterals for China-dominated organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, or to BRICS, and resort to bilateral agreements ensuring access to investment, concessional lending, and commodities.

Threats to exit, as any bargainer knows, confer power. A year on from our inaugural essay on the new nonalignment, countries are continuing to leverage ties with either the West or the new China-Russia bloc as a bargaining chip to achieve their interests and goals. These include:

1. Core technologies to power future growth;

2. Advanced military hardware for enhanced security;

3. The upper hand in trade negotiations with Europe, the US, and the new Russia-China bloc;

4. Essential commodities like food, energy, metals and fertilizers from the new Russian-Chinese bloc;

5. Better terms to  restructure their debt to Western and Chinese creditors during a punishing global dollar debt crisis that threatens their sovereignty.

Larger developing countries like India have shown themselves to be ruthlessly self-interested. Since the invasion of Ukraine, the BJP government has been buying Russian oil at a discount. In May, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was at the Hiroshima Quad firming up an informal coalition with the US, Australia, and Japan, against China. In June, he went to Washington and won technology transfers of everything from jet engines to chips; in July he was in France finalizing nuclear-reactor and defense deals with President Emmanuel Macron.

Despite clear areas of tension between BRICS members and over what they want out of the organization itself, enough elements of the agenda had common support: lifting up Africa, local currency settlements, and G20-based reform of the Bretton Woods institutions and the WTO.

Strategic differences

Western media coverage had been dismissive of BRICS ahead of its August meeting. Few in the G7 commentariat expected BRICS to confirm new members. The commentary has characterized BRICS as an organization that has not achieved anything in years, is economically stagnant, and has little unity of purpose except to be performatively anti-US.

But a vast gulf separates the Western commentariat from Western policymakers. Biden’s national security advisor Jake Sullivan has lobbied Congress for more money to expand the World Bank and IMF as “strategically necessary.” His diplomatic calendar—with visits to India, China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt in recent months—illustrates the frenzy of competitive deal-making with the nonaligned power players. The last three countries, together with Iran, Argentina, and Ethiopia, were just announced as new BRICS members.

Strategic differences between BRICS member states over the organization’s purpose do exist. China wants to create alliances to supplant Western power and has some support from Brazil on this front. Meanwhile, India prefers to reform existing architectures—as Modi’s BRICS speech, with its emphasis on concrete governance changes at the IMF, World Bank, WTO, and UN Security Council, illustrated—and wants to persuade other global South nations to resist China’s geopolitical agenda.

These differences ensure that BRICS will primarily remain a coordination forum, not a security bloc. Nor are India and China alone among BRICS members in having military and territorial disputes. Egypt and Ethiopia are fighting over the Grand Dam on the headwaters of the Nile. Iran and Saudi Arabia have only recently reached a truce on a forty-four-year Cold War. Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are close US security partners; the latter two host American military bases and mercilessly bombarded Yemen with the firepower of European and US military aid.

Not exposed to Chinese territorial aggression, Brazil under Lula is making much stronger moves towards Beijing. While India has blocked China’s main—and the world’s largest—EV producer, BYD, from setting up shop, Lula went to Beijing and convinced the firm to invest in a plant in Bahia. This will be its first EV production hub outside Asia, and is forecast to produce 150,000 vehicles per year. Neatly encapsulating the shift, BYD’s new plant will replace a GM facility.

Lula’s aim is green industrialization and value-added agriculture after decades of exporting primary goods like soybeans, iron ore, and oil. He has won technology transfers from China for offshore wind and green hydrogen projects and has made Brazil the top developing country for attracting foreign-renewables investment, now with $115 billion in projects. Deforestation in the Amazon has already been reduced by 34 percent since Lula took office this year.

Africa

The Western-led system offers various economic, technological, and military resources to developing states, but has the drawback of coming with delays and many strings attached. Systems that offer resources quickly and with few conditions are seen as more attractive by developmentalist elites of non G7 countries.

Chinese lending on the African continent surged in the 2010s with Belt & Road Infrastructure lending supplementing the World Bank’s loans for health and education projects. Now, African countries are leaning on BRICS. With Egypt and Ethiopia admitted last week, three out of eleven BRICS members are African.

And they are delivering. Ethiopia wrangled a one year suspension of its debt repayments to China under the common G20 framework. Modi too is pressing for the African Union to become a full member when the G20 meets in Delhi next week.

Take the question of South Africa’s energy transition. In late 2021, the first “JET-P” or Just Energy Transition Program was announced to great fanfare. In what could have been the clearest demonstration of energy-transition finance from North to South, richer countries promised to directly support South Africa to swap out its broken coal-intensive power system with renewables. $8.5 billion in cheap concessional loans were promised, but the entire arrangement is bogged down in domestic politics—the pressure on state-owned utility Eskom has reached a breaking point.

China can’t waltz in and fix this mess. But with citizens suffering blackouts daily, demand for Chinese-made solar PV has soared, quadrupling on South Africa’s rooftops in a scant year. During Xi’s state visit, President Ramaphosa announced “deeper” Chinese investment in solar, power generation, and transmission. Protectionists inside the country insist on manufacturing; until recently the government forbade importing Chinese-made solar panels. Local industry is fearful that Chinese businesses will receive contracts for an expensive grid upgrade.

Development finance is vital for many African countries in debt distress. After close to two years of reviews, expert panel reports, and lobbying, the US is at last supporting changes to free up more lending by the World Bank. It also proposed to increase its own contributions by $3.3 billion, which it estimates will enable about $50 billion in new lending, or a total of $200 billion leveraged if US allies kick in a proportionate share. But Biden’s supplemental funding request is held up in the US Congress, which ultimately holds the purse strings, where Republicans’ zero-sum view decides the fate of both Ukraine and the developing world.

What counts as a political priority for the Biden administration is a stark reminder of the disparities in the global order. Australia and Canada have already benefited from billions in mining investment, courtesy of the US Defense Production Act. The DRC and Zambia, meanwhile, have a vague MOU with the US on transition minerals. Carrots from the EU too, the Global Gateway funds, are held up by a fragmented process. Meanwhile, African countries will have costs imposed upon them as EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) penalties against imports of heavy industrial goods gradually come into effect over the coming decade.

Financial bloc?

BRICS is not serious about replacing multilateral structures like the IMF or the World Bank, as illustrated by the smaller scale of its own facilities. The BRICS bank, the New Development Bank, has lent $33 billion in eight years of operation, a fraction of the $78 billion from the World Bank in 2022 alone, not to mention a meager sum next to the nearly half a trillion dollars that China has lent through its own policy banks.

BRICS also has its own IMF-style replacement to pool together their reserves and provide emergency liquidity—the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA)—to countries in debt distress. It’s not free of the quota tensions that make the IMF and World Bank governance so unpalatable to developing countries. China, as the biggest contributor to the CRA, holds an almost 40 percent voting share in the facility. “From the outside, it might seem easy, or easier, when only five countries are around the table. But this was not the case at all,” Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr said of creating the NDB and CRA.

The global financial architecture is one of the main sources of dissatisfaction for developing countries. Among other things, it creates a hard barrier to climate action. The outsized role of the dollar in trans-border transactions means monetary policy enacted within the US affects the whole globe; especially those who borrow in dollars. A new BRICS currency was not mentioned in the summit communique because the idea is a non-starter, as is the notion that China’s renminbi will supplant the dollar while it is still committed to capital controls. The real currency goal is to conduct more trade and investment in local currencies, facilitated by their central banks, and possibly shifting reserves into other currencies.



Productive competition

BRICS can be seen as part of an agenda to reform an unjust multilateral order well past its sell-by date. “Today’s global governance structures reflect yesterday’s world,” the UN’s secretary general Antonio Gutteres said at the BRICS summit, adding that institutions “must reform to reflect today’s power and economic realities.”

There is no pathway to peace, prosperity, or planetary stability that does not involve China. Martin Wolf recently argued that we are in a “competition of systems.” Countries are rationally wanting to hedge against further systemic breakdown in West–China relations. Recent US cabinet ministerial visits—Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo—have assured Beijing that decoupling their intertwined economies would be “disastrous” to both (Yellen pointed out that it was not even possible).

Yet relations could worsen as the US chips embargo remains in place amid new investment bans announced this month. The BRICS summit coincided with a historic US–South Korea–Japan trilateral agreement, strengthening a military alliance to contain China’s rising threat. New US bases to be built in the Philippines and Papua New Guinea are cementing Beijing’s view that the US plans to encircle it and prevent its future growth.

The greatest impact of BRICS will likely not be in creating eye-catching new institutions or ballooning membership, but rather, if it can achieve it, in provoking more meaningful cooperation from the richest countries. What is less clear is its ability to strengthen South–South cooperation beyond deals timed to coincide with summit deliverables. Countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa must lead the way on cutting carbon, which will require finding their own self-interested reasons—green industrial growth, reducing their energy import bill, security/supply risks, and ecological vulnerability—in the way that China has.

[sudden and sharp]

Muy de acuerdo.



------
[ Pero lo que escuece es lo que escuece, está visto.  ]

No, Sudden. Estoy de acuerdo con el malo. Yo ya he aguantado a muchos Musk de la vida, que son genios para algunas cosas (o suertudos), pero en otras cosas es mejor que no se metan. El propio PPCC no para de repetir que la historia (mejor dicho, la realidad) tiene leyes objetivas. Y una de ellas es la advertencia que recibió San Agustín: la inmensidad de la realidad no cabe en ninguna cabeza humana.

Hay gestos arrogantes que cansan desde hace tiempo. Y aunque desgraciadamente conocemos un caso sonado de expulsión por perder las formas, o se pone coto, o el foro va a menguar más de lo que ya está. Ya me llamó la atención en su día la cantidad de antiguos "burbujos" que ya ni entran, y mucho me temo que ahí hubo más que mero aburrimiento.

No tenemos ni puta idea de lo que va a pasar. Hay algunas variables como el invierno demográfico o el estrangulamiento financiero que nos dan pistas y nos permite aventurar algo. Pero es evidente que las eternas patadas hacia adelante de la deuda ya no se sostienen, y pronto (si no ya) habrá que decidir cómo seguir. Ya veremos si es con otros Pactos de la Moncloa o con otra Guerra Civil. Guerra no como la del 36, pero sí entre familiares, entre conocidos, trabajadores contra empresas... porque cuando hay escasez o se llega a un acuerdo para administrarla, o si cada cual insiste en mirar por su culo las hostias están garantizadas.


Y en este sentido, decir que "todo está planificado" me parece, como poco, muy aventurado. En el caso concreto de Bildu, aún está muy, muy lejos de ser los antiguos "polismilis" que aceptaron la oferta de amnistía.

Entrar es libre. Opinar también.





Esos burbujos que ya no entran, están en burbuja, en un hilo que se llama: pisitófilos creditófagos.

[ Y me ponen verde, por cierto.  ]

[saturno]

https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1697687344613048468

Jaque mate, Voilà.
Resulta que es más caro comprar que alquilar.

Ahora, igual dejamos de discutir y nos preguntamos cuál es el paso siguiente ?

Propongo este;
Adoptar un baremo institucional, quizás supra-estatal, donde el  coste de ocupar una vivienda esté vinculado a una normativa del Estado de bienestar,

Hay dos soluciones:  la que ya se conoce desde los 90, que consiste en  subvencionar el alquiler con impuestos publicos y criterios sociales es decir repartiendo la carga de las subvenciones sobre el Trabajo,  so pretexto de un derecho de levantar el impuesto privado,

La otra, que dependerá de cómo se organice el Trabajo, que consiste en vincular el impuesto privado a un criterio Estatal (por ej, el salario mínimo o similar) e invitar a los Trabajores que pagan el impuesto privado y caseros recaudadores del  impuesto privado a ponerse de acuerdo en las elecciones si quieren aumentar el salario minimo o si quieren aumentarlo también,

Pero los impuestos públicos, se bajan, aclara el Capital.

Qué dilema, ¿verdad?

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

Muy de acuerdo.



------
[ Pero lo que escuece es lo que escuece, está visto.  ]

Ya me llamó la atención en su día la cantidad de antiguos "burbujos" que ya ni entran, y mucho me temo que ahí hubo más que mero aburrimiento.

Muchos de esos antiguos "burbujos" que dices, tienen ya unos años. Muchos de ellos son propietarios o multipropietarios, y todo lo que sea que alguien hable a los pobres sobre los mecanismos que llevan a que la vivienda sea uno de los factores principales de su pobreza, les incomodan, no les gusta y lo intentan liar todo a base de narrativas sobre Las Élites, el Nuevo Orden Mundial, los contubernios judeomasónicos o el globalismo, un palabro que últimamente escucho mucho, pero que nadie consigue explicarme. 

Todas estas narrativas que no llevan a ninguna parte, ni explican porqué en un país donde hay millones de metros cuadrados para construir viviendas, y un sistema financiero que lo puede financiar, no se construyen viviendas.

No se que tendrán que ver Las Élites con la mezquindad de la clase política, el hijoputismo reinante en el mercao inmobiliario, o que los caseros zampalangostinos les "saquen" la mitad del sueldo a las clases bajas con el artefacto de El Pisito.

Y hablando de Las Élites....

Las Élites, ese constructo narrativo-literario para desviar la responsabilidad individual y colectiva de las sociedades, hacia unos entes etéreos, incorpóreos, que escondidos detrás de una cortina, cual Magos de Oz del Siglo XXI, mueven unos hilos invisibles, que solo ven los iniciados. 

O Las Élites son todopoderosas, dueñas del destino de todos los pueblos del mundo sin que podamos hacer nada para evitarlo; o las clases medias occidentales somos completamente ineptas, estúpidas e incompetentes que no vemos lo que tenemos delante de nuestros ojos.

¿Este es de La Élite?

Así es vivir en una habitación con ratas por 400 euros al mes en Ibiza dentro de un chalé patera que da 200.000 de beneficio
https://www.lasexta.com/programas/equipo-investigacion/asi-vivir-habitacion-ratas-400-euros-mes-ibiza-dentro-chale-patera-que-200000-beneficio_2023081164d69ed151e7e10001f8d661.html
Paga al mes 400 euros por la habitación y señala a su casero, que con su chalé patera, sin la licencia necesaria, gana más de 200.000 euros cada temporada.

"Yo no tengo licencia de alquiler de vivienda, pero no hay ninguna ley que prohíba que una casa tenga 50 habitaciones. No hay ninguna ley que prohíba alquilar habitaciones, lo que pasa es que no está regulado, que eso es otra historia", justifica el propietario.

¿Hay algún registro donde apuntarse a ser Élite, o este del chalet es uno que pasaba por ahí y de repente se ha dado cuenta que pertenece a La Élite, y que puede ponerse el mundo por montera y "sacar" 200.000 euros a los más pobres de la ciudad?

A falta de Dioses que rigen nuestras vidas, nos inventamos Las Élites. A falta de mitología, contamos cuentos de Las Élites a los niños. A falta de metafísica, nos explicamos el mundo con Las Élites. En Las Élites, se cree desde la Fe o desde la Razón?

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12426346/09/23/el-precio-de-la-vivienda-sigue-subiendo-y-traspasa-los-2000-euros-m2-por-primera-vez-desde-2008.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12426677/09/23/el-parlament-de-cataluna-aprueba-recurrir-la-ley-de-vivienda-por-invasion-de-competencias.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230902/page/40/textview

Compartir piso como única vía para acceder a un alquiler

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/airbnb-blackstone-to-join-s-p-500-while-deere-will-replace-walgreens-in-s-p-100-f4816010

Airbnb, Blackstone to join S&P 500, while Deere will replace Walgreens in S&P 100

Moves will ‘ensure each index is more representative of its market-capitalization range,’ S&P Dow Jones Indices said

Shares of investment giant Blackstone Inc. and vacation-home rental platform Airbnb Inc. rallied after hours on Friday after both won the nod to join the S&P 500 index SPX later this month.

The announcement, from S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that the change would take hold before the start of trading on Monday, Sept. 18. The move, among others announced Friday, will “ensure each index is more representative of its market-capitalization range,” according to a release.

Airbnb ABNB, +0.87% currently has a market value of $83.98 billion, and its shares are up 64.7% so far this year. Blackstone BX, -1.77%, currently worth $129.29 billion, has seen its stock rise 43.6% year-to-date.

Shares of Airbnb and Blackstone were up 5.7% and 4.8%, respectively, after hours on Friday.

Blackstone and Airbnb will replace Lincoln National Corp. LNC, +2.14% and Newell Brands Inc. NWL, +1.23% in the index, S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Friday. In the process, Lincoln and Newell will join the S&P SmallCap 600.

Blackstone in July said it had reached $1 trillion in assets under management, aided by a growth trajectory that it said had outpaced its private equity rivals.

“We’ve established an unparalleled global platform of leading business lines, offering over 70 distinct investment strategies,” Chief Executive Stephen Schwarzman told analysts. “We believe our clients view us as the gold standard in alternative asset management.”

Meanwhile, Airbnb last month said that travelers were seeking longer stays and bigger properties in pricier areas, as the rebound in travel endures despite a tidal wave of inflation last year. The company’s second-quarter results and third-quarter sales forecast topped Wall Street’s estimates.

Meanwhile, S&P 500 member Deere & Co. DE, +1.94% will replace Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. WBA, -7.43% in the S&P 100, S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Friday. That change also takes hold on Sept. 18. S&P Dow Jones Indices said Walgreens “is no longer representative of the megacap market space” but will stay in the S&P 500.

Shares of Deere fell 0.2% after hours. Walgreens stock was up 0.4%.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230902/page/3/textview

El turismo anticipa un verano histórico

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12426526/09/23/espana-recibio-en-julio-101-millones-de-turistas-internacionales-mas-que-antes-del-covid.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/transportes-turismo/noticias/12427440/09/23/un-coche-chino-se-convierte-en-el-mas-vendido-en-espana-por-primera-vez.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/capital-riesgo/noticias/12427295/09/23/el-capital-riesgo-desafia-la-sequia-bursatil-con-nuevas-opvs-por-13000-millones.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/banca-finanzas/noticias/12426689/09/23/la-batalla-por-las-hipotecas-se-recrudece-y-openbank-da-350-euros-por-contratar-una.html

Saludos.

[sudden and sharp]

https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1697687344613048468

Jaque mate, Voilà.
Resulta que es más caro comprar que alquilar.

Ahora, igual dejamos de discutir y nos preguntamos cuál es el paso siguiente ?

Propongo este;
Adoptar un baremo institucional, quizás supra-estatal, donde el  coste de ocupar una vivienda esté vinculado a una normativa del Estado de bienestar,

Hay dos soluciones:  la que ya se conoce desde los 90, que consiste en  subvencionar el alquiler con impuestos publicos y criterios sociales es decir repartiendo la carga de las subvenciones sobre el Trabajo,  so pretexto de un derecho de levantar el impuesto privado,

La otra, que dependerá de cómo se organice el Trabajo, que consiste en vincular el impuesto privado a un criterio Estatal (por ej, el salario mínimo o similar) e invitar a los Trabajores que pagan el impuesto privado y caseros recaudadores del  impuesto privado a ponerse de acuerdo en las elecciones si quieren aumentar el salario minimo o si quieren aumentarlo también,

Pero los impuestos públicos, se bajan, aclara el Capital.

Qué dilema, ¿verdad?

Algo mejor. Invitar suena mejor que obligar. (... a los caseretes a esto y lo otro.)

El Capital, diría yo, esta harto de pagar un impuesto privado siemprealcista que le im pide competir con las Chinas de por ahí... embebido en los salarios nosiemprealcistas de los curritos que son los que lo pagan todo. (En trabajo. Incluyendo aquí el trabajo, que no es moco de pavo, de los verdaderos empresarios o emprendedores.)

[sudden and sharp]

[...] A falta de Dioses que rigen nuestras vidas, nos inventamos Las Élites. A falta de mitología, contamos cuentos de Las Élites a los niños. A falta de metafísica, nos explicamos el mundo con Las Élites. En Las Élites, se cree desde la Fe o desde la Razón?

Lo has "bordao".

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230902/page/22/textview

La hora de la bolsa se retrasa y vuelve a ser el momento de los bonos

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230902/page/23/textview

Los valores cíclicos pierden 'huso horario' y caen un 5% en el verano

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://fortune.com/2023/09/02/nyc-airbnb-registration-backlog-frustrates-hosts-ahead-of-new-rules/

Airbnb hosts not in New York state of mind as registration backlog piles up ahead of Big Apple’s unwelcome new rules

By Tuesday, thousands of Airbnb Inc. rentals in New York City may suddenly be taken off the market.

New rules set to take effect that day require hosts to obtain a license from the city verifying they are in compliance with strict occupancy regulations and building codes. But according to some property owners across the city, the Office of Special Enforcement is struggling to keep up with a backlog of license applications ahead of the Sept. 5 start date.

“The biggest frustration is just how hard it is to reach any humans at the office there,” said Ilan Rabinovitch, an Airbnb host of two years who has applied to register two rooms in his Upper West Side brownstone. He said he’s contacted the OSE at least four times inquiring about updates regarding his registration, asking for average turnaround times or staffing levels, but he’s either gotten no response or a vague reply from OSE Deputy Executive Director Francine Vlantes O’Keeffe.

At stake is potentially millions of dollars in lost revenue for Airbnb in one of its biggest markets. Some 7,500 units don’t meet the requirements to apply for a license, according to market analytics firm AirDNA, and so will likely eventually disappear from the platform. More than half of those listings are frequently rented and account for about 40% of Airbnb’s income in New York City, according to AirDNA. In a lawsuit against the city over the rules, Airbnb said it earned $85 million in net revenue in 2022 in the Big Apple, which is about 1% of its total.

New York has been sparring with Airbnb for years over rules that prohibit rentals in most apartments for fewer than 30 days without a tenant present. AirDNA estimates that only 9,500 of Airbnb’s 23,000 listings are legal.

The city has argued the registration law is necessary to crack down on unlawful rental operations by bad actors that subject guests to hazardous living conditions, force up rents and destroy the fabric of neighborhoods. But many hosts have sided with Airbnb in opposing the new rules, saying they rely on the extra income to be able to cover housing costs in one of the country’s most expensive real estate markets.

While the city works through its backlog of applications, some NYC hosts have been waiting for weeks, if not months, to hear about their status. Failure to register will lead to fines and the listing will be blocked on platforms like Airbnb and Expedia Group Inc.’s Vrbo.

The city has so far approved only 257 short-term rental host registrations out of 3,250 applications, New York’s Office of Special Enforcement told travel publication Skift on Aug. 28. It denied 72 applications and returned 479 to request additional information, according to Skift. Thousands more hosts have yet to apply.

The late-summer deluge of applications — more than half were filed only earlier this month after a judge dismissed the lawsuit — is weighing on the OSE, which was operating with 28 people, or less than half of its budgeted positions as of mid-May, Gothamist reported.

The OSE and its overseeing body, the Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice, didn’t respond to emailed questions from Bloomberg News about enforcement capacity and the progress of application reviews. In her emailed response to Rabinovitch, which was seen by Bloomberg News, O’Keeffe said the office “reviews applications in order of submissions, and review times vary.”

Those operating short-term rentals illegally face fines of as much as $5,000, or three times the revenue generated by the unit. Airbnb and other rental platforms also face penalties if listings slip through. As a result, Airbnb is blocking the listing calendars of hosts who don’t provide a registration number by the deadline and haven’t updated their minimum night stay to 30 nights or more. A spokeswoman for Expedia declined to comment on the regulation. The company doesn’t break out metrics on its Vrbo unit, but AirDNA said Vrbo hosts 10% of short-term listings in New York or around 2,680, and doesn’t allow shared rooms on its site.

When asked for comment, Airbnb reiterated an argument it made in its lawsuit that the regulations will deprive the city of significant tourist dollars as they will take away a critical supply of alternative lodging that helps meet demand that hotels can’t during seasonal events like the NYC marathon and major holidays. While no city made up more than 1.3% of the company’s 2022 revenue, New York is among the top five Airbnb markets with the most active listings behind Orlando, Los Angeles and Phoenix.

“The city is sending a clear message to millions of potential visitors who will now have fewer accommodation options when they visit New York City: you are not welcome,” said Theo Yedinsky, Airbnb’s global policy director.

New York is far from alone in battling with Airbnb over listings and plenty of other cities have long tried to impose stricter regulations, with varying results. Meanwhile, San Francisco-based Airbnb recently reported reported total active listings jumped 19% in the second quarter from a year earlier to more than 7 million, adding more net active listings than in any quarter in its history. Its shares are up more than 50% this year.

But even if short-term stays still make up the bulk of listings on Airbnb, the company is seeing an increase in longer-term stays as some hosts are giving up fighting against restrictions like those in New York. Bookings for 28 days or more accounted for about 18% of total gross bookings in the second quarter. More hosts, concerned about the risk of penalties or legal costs, are focusing on month-to-month rentals, which can be less profitable but aren’t as widely regulated.