PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2021

[py]

No-inflación!

Será por la oferta y la demanda, como los pisitos.

Hay empresas para las que ya se justifica la causa mayor para la resolucion de contratos...

[Zugzwang]

Al salir la noticia ayer, di un garbeo por el foro para cruzar opiniones y ver las aportaciones sobre las medidas que se han tomado.

En casi todo coincido con lo que dice Hynkel, excepto en el fondo:

Creo que el plan inicial que supongo tendrá el gobierno no cambia absolutamente nada, es pastoreo para el pueblo. De hecho, las dos patas importantes son las siguientes:
1 - se congelan los precios, para que quien esté de alquiler no sufra el oportunismo del rentista.
2 - los 250 Euros son un cheque bebé encubierto (yo lo veo así). Hay un déficit de natalidad de año y medio, y si las familias jóvenes que lo hubieran tenido reciben 250 euros extra con su alquiler congelado, pues ya tienen un motivo para decidirse.

No hay motivos para subir los precios porque no hay capacidad de asumir esos precios; en las inmobiliarias siempre veo los mismos pisos en alquiler, nadie los toca, no se mueven, y además inflacionan. Llevo unos meses trabajando y sigo de "casapapi", es inadmisible ver determinados precios y en qué condiciones. Esta ley no cambia absolutamente nada la situación, excepto en los jóvenes que ya estén de alquiler que tendrán durante dos años un pequeño empujón.

Como dice Hynkel, respecto a Zapatero el plan es esperar (otra vez) que reviente la burbuja solita u entonces habrá medidas de choque estructurales, pero no antes.

Con este movimiento lleno de fuego de artificio, cada día me convence más la tesis de Asustadisimos.

[el malo]

No-inflación!

Cuidado con comparar commodities con 2020. Hace un año hubo un momento en el que pagaban por quitarse el petróleo de encima. Normal que porcentualmente haya subido una barbaridad.

Para mí es más significativo el maiz, por ejemplo. La gente comía antes y sigue comiendo ahora.

No entiendo lo del oro y la plata.

[Raf909]

No-inflación!

Cuidado con comparar commodities con 2020. Hace un año hubo un momento en el que pagaban por quitarse el petróleo de encima. Normal que porcentualmente haya subido una barbaridad.

Para mí es más significativo el maiz, por ejemplo. La gente comía antes y sigue comiendo ahora.

No entiendo lo del oro y la plata.

Lo del oro y la plata creo que es por la diversificación actual. Con la locura de las criptodivisas muchos grandes fondos habrán reducido sus inversiones en los "clásicos" (oro y plata) mientras que el restop del mundo actualmente se está peleando por la energía y las materias primas.

Al menos es la explicación que yo le doy. Ojo, que para mí dentro de un mercado especulativo vale más el oro y la plata que las criptodivisas, pero claro, yo me centraría en perder lo mínimo, no en  intentar ganar lo máximo. Imagino que por eso soy pobre...(a parte de mi sueldo, claro está)

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-construction-wages/update-1-german-construction-workers-threaten-nationwide-strike-for-higher-wages-idUSL1N2R217O

German construction workers threaten nationwide strike for higher wages
BERLIN (Reuters) - German construction workers said on Wednesday they were likely to go on strike for higher wages and other payments, increasing pressure on employers to finally meet a range of demands including more compensation for long commutes to building sites.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-cenbank-inflation/update-2-russian-central-bank-signals-imminent-rate-hike-due-to-high-inflation-idUSL1N2R20PY

Russian central bank signals imminent rate hike due to high inflation

MOSCOW, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Russia’s central bank is set to hike its key interest rate from 6.75% at its Oct. 22 meeting, Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin signalled on Wednesday, as the bank prepares to raise its forecast for inflation, which remains well above the 4% target.

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-property-fantasia-turns-nightmarish-11633522146

China’s Property Fantasia Turns Nightmarish

Property developer Fantasia’s missed payment is the sector’s latest red flag. But the real question mark is housing prices themselves.

Was it all just a pleasant dream? Investors in Chinese property developer Fantasia’s dollar debt who a year ago were feasting on juicy, but still single-digit yields, now find themselves without their principal. Many others could find themselves in a similar position soon.

Fantasia Holdings failed to repay a $206 million U.S. dollar bond on Monday. The company is much smaller than whale-like Evergrande—its sales last year were $3.4 billion versus the latter’s $79 billion—but many more developers that overextended themselves in the boom years could face a similar fate.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-property-bonds-hammered-by-weak-september-sales-and-a-surprise-default-11633523451

Chinese Property Bonds Hammered by Weak September Sales and a Surprise Default

Dozens of dollar bonds sold by Chinese real-estate companies tumbled in price Wednesday

Shrinking apartment sales and an unexpected default have stoked fresh investor concerns about China’s property developers, causing a steep selloff in U.S. dollar bonds from many of the sector’s debt-laden companies.

On Wednesday, traders said dozens of dollar bonds sold by Chinese real-estate companies tumbled in price, pushing yields on those bonds higher. The selldown extended sharp declines logged the previous day, reflecting increasing investor pessimism after luxury developer Fantasia Holdings Group Co. failed to repay $206 million in dollar bonds that matured on Monday.

[senslev]

Excepto un par de casos, el resto está o por niveles de 2018 o más alto. Sin contar con las mini burbujas en varios de ellos. Si comparamos ventanas, podemos decir, "los precios están parecidos a 2018" o "debido a la pandemia y la bajada de la demanda, el precio bajó, pero ahora está normal". También podemos decir, "desde el año 2000 el precio de casi todo se ha duplicado, especialmente lo esencial". Sigo sin entender que no se vea que lo esencial es totalmente inflacionario, me da lo mismo que una dumb tv de 50000 pulgadas cueste 500 euros y antes 1000. Y esto se agrava con(o es debido a) la devaluación de la moneda y los sueldos. ¿Esto esto deflacionario?, seguramente y menos mal.

Sí, la gente tiene que comer y vivir en algún sitio y vestirse y poder curarse si se pone enfermo y recibir cierta educación.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GRAINS&p=m1

Y dado los niveles de precios actualmente, qué más da que bajen los precios un 30% si han subido un 200% antes. Como he comentado alguna vez si estamos gritando burbuja desde antes de esa subida del x% aunque haya una bajada del 30%, deberíamos gritar burbujón.

De todas formas a estas alturas la verdad es que, dado el nivel de estupidez actual, puede pasar cualquier cosa. El BTC en 55000, al final va a ser cierto que va a 100000. Y por supuesto los bbcc no tienen nada que ver con esto.

No-inflación!

Cuidado con comparar commodities con 2020. Hace un año hubo un momento en el que pagaban por quitarse el petróleo de encima. Normal que porcentualmente haya subido una barbaridad.

Para mí es más significativo el maiz, por ejemplo. La gente comía antes y sigue comiendo ahora.

No entiendo lo del oro y la plata.

[Derby]

https://thesoundingline.com/china-junk-bond-yields-spike-to-highest-since-global-financial-crisis/

China Junk Bond Yields Spike to Highest Since Global Financial Crisis

Nearly a month ago, we warned that Chinese dollar denominated junk bond yields had spiked to their highest level since the first wave of the Covid pandemic early last year.

Fast forward to today, and the worsening Evergrande crisis has pushed Chinese junk bond yields up to over 15%, a number last seen during the Global Financial crisis over a decade ago, as the following chart via Win Smart, CFA reveals.



(...) As we’ve noted before, debating exactly how the Evergrande default ends up getting handled is missing the point. The bigger point is that the highly leveraged and excessive real-estate development model that has been the key mechanism used by Chinese leadership to boost its economic numbers is breaking down for good. At a minimum, that will have broad implications on Chinese and global growth for years to come.

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-prices-take-wild-ride-after-putin-comments-11633541137

Natural Gas Prices Take Wild Ride After Putin Comments

Russian president said the country’s gas supplies to Europe are set to reach a record this year

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow was ready to work on stabilizing the global energy market, causing a sudden reversal in natural gas prices, which had earlier soared to their highest level on record.

The Russian leader appeared to be flexing his geopolitical muscles by signaling that he could help tamp down a growing crisis in Europe caused by a shortage of natural gas, a key energy source for producing electricity and heating homes. High prices in Europe have spilled over to the U.S. as well, with natural gas trading at its highest in over a decade.

https://www.reuters.com/article/power-prices/wrapup-1-energy-price-surge-sends-shivers-through-markets-as-europe-looks-to-russia-idUSL8N2R24MZ

Energy price surge sends shivers through markets as Europe looks to Russia

(Reuters) - Soaring energy prices caused alarm among European leaders and sent shivers through global markets on Wednesday, raising concerns of a winter fuel crisis that could play into the hands of gas-rich Russia.

(...) “I think we have to be very clear that the gas prices are sky-rocketing,” EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said, calling for a renewed focus on renewables.

[sudden and sharp]

El Gobierno incluye los toros en su bono cultural para los jóvenes
https://www.elmundo.es/cultura/2021/10/06/615d9d8721efa0b2258b459b.html

Pedro Sánchez ha anunciado a mediodía de este miércoles la puesta en marcha de un bono cultural de 400 euros para todos los jóvenes. Lo recibirán, según ha dicho, al pasar de los 17 a los 18 años. "Les daremos 400€ para la compra de libros, el consumo de cualquier tipo de actividad artística, escénica", ha asegurado el presidente del Gobierno.

Huele a desesperación.









[ Esto está ganao.    ]

[Derby]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Energy-Transition-Will-Take-Decades-Not-Years.html

The Energy Transition Will Take Decades Not Years

*With natural gas, coal, and oil prices all soaring this summer, it is clear that a successful energy transition will take decades not years
*Some energy transition proponents may have confused Covid energy demand destruction with a change in consumer behavior
*The truth is that an energy transition can only occur when clean energy can be provided both cheaply and reliably

(...) The current gas, coal, and power crisis in Europe and Asia is also set to accelerate oil demand recovery in the winter if gas-to-oil switching becomes more widespread.

By early 2022, demand for all fossil fuels is expected to have reached or exceeded pre-pandemic levels, highlighting the challenges of the energy transition to secure reliable - and preferably affordable - energy for the world.

“The energy transition and decarbonisation are decade-long strategies and do not happen overnight,” Cuneyt Kazokoglu, head of oil demand analysis at consultancy FGE, told Reuters.

Last year’s slump in fossil fuel demand had nothing to do with the energy transition: it had everything to do with the lockdowns and economic decline, Kazokoglu said.

A rushed transition without considering the still enormous role that fossil fuels play in the economy and consumers’ lifestyle risks exposing the global energy market to supply crunches and price spikes.

“Prices for fossil fuels will remain volatile, perhaps more so than today since the risk of a supply-demand imbalance is greater in a market that is shrinking where the case for further investment is weak, which could produce short-term rallies,” Nikos Tsafos, the James R. Schlesinger Chair for Energy and Geopolitics with at Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), wrote in a commentary last month.

The price of commodities critical for the energy transition - such as the key metals lithium, cobalt, nickel, or copper - are also prone to volatility, Tsafos notes.

The energy transition will not be smooth sailing and will take decades. In the meantime, fossil fuels will continue to support the global economy and the security of the energy supply.

Even the IEA, while saying that well-managed energy transitions would be the solution - not the problem - in the current gas and power crises, acknowledged that “The links between electricity and gas markets are not going to go away anytime soon. Gas remains an important tool for balancing electricity markets in many regions today.”

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/757e2d01-ff1e-45a4-b696-50ae31133f50

Beijing crackdown threatens to crush China’s love of London property

Thousands of high-end flats bankrolled by Chinese developers lie unfinished and unsold

In 2014, Chinese property developer Greenland Group set out to build western Europe’s tallest residential tower.

A video on the $9bn company’s website shows “Spire London” as it might look once complete: a curved-glass monolith soaring to 235 metres and vying with the pyramid-topped skyscraper that dominates the Canary Wharf skyline in east London.

But seven years later, there is still no tower.

“[Greenland] has put the ramps in for heavy machinery and laid the foundations. But there’s been no activity for as long as I can remember and no one can tell you what’s happening,” said David McCooke, head of residential development at estate agency Johns & Co, who is based opposite the site.

Greenland is among a clutch of Chinese property developers that rushed to London after the financial crisis, as the housing market boomed and relations between the UK and China warmed up.

But, like many London real estate projects, its plans have been hit by a slowdown in the sale of high-end residential flats and the Covid-19 pandemic. There are now concerns that a regulatory crackdown in China might end such developers’ interest in the UK capital.

Chinese developers have come under pressure from the so-called “three red lines” — new rules from Beijing that seek to curb excessive leverage across the property sector by limiting the amount companies can borrow.



Evergrande, the world’s most indebted developer and an emblem of the vast liabilities accrued through decades of transformative urbanisation in China, sparked fears across global markets as it missed a crucial interest deadline on its offshore debts. This week, another developer, Fantasia, defaulted on an offshore bond.

One property consultant close to London’s development market was contacted in the wake of the Evergrande crisis by a UK regulator with concerns about the risks of contagion in London. “The big question is whether the Chinese will restrict investment overseas,” he said. “That would be a pretty big crisis in the UK and elsewhere.” (...)

[Hynkel]

El Gobierno incluye los toros en su bono cultural para los jóvenes
https://www.elmundo.es/cultura/2021/10/06/615d9d8721efa0b2258b459b.html

Pedro Sánchez ha anunciado a mediodía de este miércoles la puesta en marcha de un bono cultural de 400 euros para todos los jóvenes. Lo recibirán, según ha dicho, al pasar de los 17 a los 18 años. "Les daremos 400€ para la compra de libros, el consumo de cualquier tipo de actividad artística, escénica", ha asegurado el presidente del Gobierno.

Huele a desesperación.









[ Esto está ganao.    ]

Los 250 para los "alquilinos". Los 400 para gastos.

Matrix nos está repitiendo bastantes cosas de 2008. Aunque esta vez los 400 sólo son para "jovenunos" y no para todos los que pagan IRPF.


Está sucediendo, señores. Espero que PPCC no se equivoque, la economía real y la banca real no estén ya secuestradas por el tocho, y se pueda tirar de la cadena de una vez. Que llevamos con el ñordo ahí unos pocos de años.

[Suavesito_Papi]

https://twitter.com/ierrejon/status/1445692180685750284?t=mtxTVzl98V2RdNVBnEQ_Fw&s=19


Saludos