PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2023

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/ahorro/2023/08/03/64cadf7ae5fdea4c078b4575.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20230803/page/12/textview

La nueva producción hipotecaria cae un 17% hasta junio

https://www.expansion.com/empresas/banca/2023/08/02/64ca546a468aebca298b4632.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2023/08/02/64ca427c468aeb031e8b45d4.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

ING financiará hasta el 95% en las hipotecas para jóvenes de la Comunidad de Madrid

Expansión | 02/08/2023

Oficinas ING | DREAMSTIME EXPANSION

ING se ha unido al programa "Mi Primera Vivienda" de la Comunidad de Madrid con el objetivo de facilitar a los jóvenes la compra de la primera vivienda en propiedad.

A través de este programa, la entidad financiará hasta el 95% de la primera vivienda a los menores de 36 años residentes en cualquier municipio de la Comunidad de Madrid, institución que avalará la cantidad restante no financiada por el banco.

Los jóvenes deben acreditar su residencia legal en la Comunidad de Madrid, de manera continuada e ininterrumpida, durante los dos años inmediatamente anteriores a la fecha de solicitud de la hipoteca. Además, no podrán tener otro inmueble en propiedad dentro del territorio nacional y el valor de la vivienda no debe superar 390.000 euros.

La concesión de la hipoteca vinculada al Programa "Mi Primera Vivienda" estará disponible a partir de hoy, y podrá solicitarse en cualquier oficina de ING o a través de su teléfono de atención al cliente. Una vez hecha la solicitud, todo el proceso es 100% digital, a través de la app o web de ING.

"Con la participación en este programa, la entidad responde a una necesidad social compleja, consciente de la barrera que supone la actual capacidad de ahorro de los jóvenes para el acceso a la primera vivienda en propiedad", ha indicado el banco.

Según datos del Banco de España, el número de hogares menores de 35 años que son propietarios ha descendido del 70% al 36% en los últimos 10 años.

Saludos.

[Derby]

Una tragedia en varios actos...

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/shares-evergrande-services-arm-drop-trading-resumes-after-16-months-2023-08-03/

Evergrande services arm shares halve as trading resumes after 16 months

HONG KONG, Aug 3 (Reuters) - Shares of Evergrande Property Services Group (6666.HK) shed 50% of their value on Thursday when trading resumed after 16 months, following the release of its financial results and the end of an investigation into misused funds involving its parent.

The property services firm was dragged into financial troubles after its parent, China Evergrande Group (3333.HK), the world's most indebted property developer, became embroiled in a debt crisis in mid-2021 that later spread across the sector.

Shares of Evergrande Services had been suspended since March 21, 2022. Its sister company, China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group (0708.HK), resumed trading last week after a 16-month halt, sinking as much as 69% on the first day of trade. The parent's shares, however, remain suspended.

The resumption of trading in all three companies is crucial for Evergrande Group, because its offshore debt restructuring plan includes swapping part of the debt into equity-linked instruments backed by the parent and the two subsidiaries.

Evergrande Services said on Wednesday it had sufficient assets for its business operations and expected to maintain a level of revenue and net profit growth comparable to that of property service industry leaders.

The company said it had carried out remedial measures such as internal control reviews and staff training regarding 13.4 billion yuan ($1.86 billion) of seized deposits used as collateral for pledge guarantees by its parent.

Evergrande Services said it believed that was sufficient to address the issues and prevent similar incidents in the future, adding that all of the directors involved in the pledge guarantee had resigned so there were no regulatory concerns.

The company said it was actively taking various actions to recover its losses, including negotiation with Evergrande Group on a repayment proposal, as well as considering the feasibility of litigation.

Evergrande Services in June posted its long-overdue financial results, reporting a 46.4% plunge in its fiscal 2022 profit when compared with fiscal 2020.

[pollo]

ING financiará hasta el 95% en las hipotecas para jóvenes de la Comunidad de Madrid

Expansión | 02/08/2023


ING se ha unido al programa "Mi Primera Vivienda" de la Comunidad de Madrid con el objetivo de facilitar a los jóvenes la compra de la primera vivienda en propiedad.

A través de este programa, la entidad financiará hasta el 95% de la primera vivienda a los menores de 36 años residentes en cualquier municipio de la Comunidad de Madrid, institución que avalará la cantidad restante no financiada por el banco.

Los jóvenes deben acreditar su residencia legal en la Comunidad de Madrid, de manera continuada e ininterrumpida, durante los dos años inmediatamente anteriores a la fecha de solicitud de la hipoteca. Además, no podrán tener otro inmueble en propiedad dentro del territorio nacional y el valor de la vivienda no debe superar 390.000 euros.

La concesión de la hipoteca vinculada al Programa "Mi Primera Vivienda" estará disponible a partir de hoy, y podrá solicitarse en cualquier oficina de ING o a través de su teléfono de atención al cliente. Una vez hecha la solicitud, todo el proceso es 100% digital, a través de la app o web de ING.

"Con la participación en este programa, la entidad responde a una necesidad social compleja, consciente de la barrera que supone la actual capacidad de ahorro de los jóvenes para el acceso a la primera vivienda en propiedad", ha indicado el banco.

Según datos del Banco de España, el número de hogares menores de 35 años que son propietarios ha descendido del 70% al 36% en los últimos 10 años.

Saludos.

La base de la pirámide no da más de sí. Ya se empieza a bajar la guardia haciendo excepciones a las normas que se habían impuesto para evitar lo que acabó ocurriendo en 2008, y que tendrá exactamente el mismo desenlace, pero que muchos quieren que se postponga todo lo posible.

390.000€ de máximo nada más y nada menos. Menudo cachondeo.

[Benzino Napaloni]

La base de la pirámide no da más de sí. Ya se empieza a bajar la guardia haciendo excepciones a las normas que se habían impuesto para evitar lo que acabó ocurriendo en 2008, y que tendrá exactamente el mismo desenlace, pero que muchos quieren que se postponga todo lo posible.

390.000€ de máximo nada más y nada menos. Menudo cachondeo.

Nadie quiere ser el tonto que se coma la explosión del Ponzi.

El problema es que las AAPP tampoco pueden mantener mucho más el chiringuito. Ya lo estaban manteniendo desde la creación misma de la Sareb. Pero poco a poco empiezan a aparecer otras prioridades como el creciente pago de las pensiones. Y aún peor, la creciente parálisis económica por la falta de personal preparado. Va a haber que gastar una millonada en formación, y ni así va a ser suficiente debido al invierno demográfico.

Con el verano en marcha no se notará aún mucho ruido. Con la previsible investidura de Sánchez, el movimiento empezará en septiembre y más claramente en octubre.

No está de más fijarse en el Big Picture. Pero fíjense también en el humor de la gente corriente. A medida que la realidad se imponga veremos cada vez más ira y más tics nerviosos.

[muyuu]

los tipos del Banco de Inglaterra en máximos desde hace 15 años

[sudden and sharp]

No sé a qué viene tanto pesimismo.

La gente, con trabajo, simpre ha pagado sus cosas.





Son los repeinaos... los estiraditos los que está por ver qué hacen. No nos dejemos robar... las cuentas claras y cada uno lo suyo.

[asustadísimos]

[«No es por no ir. Si hay que ir, se va. Pero ir pa na es tontería».
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6QOej_UUzk
Si Vox vota sí al Sr. Feijóo, es porque el humo no está granao todavía, es decir, prefiere tenerlo de sparring un tiempo más antes de tener que vérselas con una atea que se lo monta de víctima y que se cree superior y no le importa desagradar.]

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/workers-to-employers-were-just-not-that-into-you-71dbeb6e

Workers to Employers: We’re Just Not That Into You

In the postpandemic economy, we’re living more and working less

Early on, remote work looked like a win-win: Employees got to work where and when they pleased, and employers got more productivity.

It turns out only the first part of that bargain came true. Employees still love remote work, but recent studies find no boost to productivity and a decline for fully remote work. 

And yet most employers have given up on prodding staff to return to the office full time. According to the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM), 62% of employers offer the option to work remotely at least some time. The Census Bureau finds that 39% of workers are teleworking from home, half of them five days a week.

It is symptomatic of a broader shift in attitudes toward work since the onset of the pandemic. Despite a historically tight labor market, pay until recently wasn’t growing much faster than inflation. One reason is workers aren’t just bargaining over money. They are also demanding more nonmonetary compensation, such as paid leave and flexible hours. As a result they often put in fewer hours, or accomplish less in the hours they do put in.

This seems to have made for a happier workforce. The Conference Board in May reported that worker satisfaction rose sharply in 2022 from 2021 and reached its highest since the survey began in 1987. This isn’t because workers find their jobs more fulfilling, but because their jobs are consuming less of their life. Among the 18 components of the survey, “interest in work” made the smallest contribution to this year’s increased satisfaction; work-life balance made the largest. (Wages were somewhere near the middle.)

Memes such as “work your wage,” “quiet quitting” and “lazy-girl jobs” attest to the lesser priority many people today place on career. They are on a collision course with the chief executive who typically worked ungodly hours, sacrificing leisure and family time, for the sake of the company and assumes others should, too. The result: Executives who try to force employees back to the office often have a revolt on their hands.

The conventional wisdom is that happier workers are more productive. That isn’t necessarily because happiness increases productivity, but because an employer, to keep its most productive employees, must keep them happy—even if that means taking steps that make them less productive.

There is nothing unusual about workers favoring something other than money. “Over the last century, the average job has become more pleasant and less onerous,” Valerie Ramey, an economist at the University of California, San Diego, said in an email. One reason is government regulations, “but part is…workers’ real income has risen over time and they have decided to ‘spend’ (by accepting lower wages) part of that income on better job amenities.”

In a 2009 study, Ramey and Neville Francis reported that the average number of hours men aged 25 to 54 worked per week fell from 49.8 in 1920 to 41.4 in 1940. That reflected a shift from the six- to five-day week—as famously implemented by Henry Ford and later enshrined in the 1938 Fair Labor Standards Act, which mandated overtime pay for more than 40 hours of work a week.

Hours continued to decline, though more slowly, until 1980. Separate data suggest they have been largely stable for the past few decades in the U.S., while trending lower in Europe. 

There are signs that in the wake of the pandemic, Americans, like Europeans, are putting more priority on the “life” part of the work-life balance, and employers are responding.

According to SHRM, the share of employers offering paid time off has risen from 63% in 2019 to 70% now, and the share offsring paid parental leave has risen from 28% to 39%. Leave averages seven weeks for fathers and nine weeks for mothers, according to human-resources consultants WTW.

Employees are also taking more vacation. Since 2021 some have enjoyed the first new federal holiday in four decades, Juneteenth.

The upshot is that even as employment grows rapidly, employees work fewer hours now than in 2019, according to monthly Labor Department data. Its annual American Time Use Survey, meanwhile, found the share of employed people actually working on a given day fell from 67.8% in 2019 to 66.1% in 2022, the lowest since at least 2003.

Meanwhile, the hours workers do put in are less productive. Output per hour in the business sector shot up early in the pandemic then trended lower through the first quarter of this year, though it likely recovered a bit in the second quarter (the Labor Department reports the latest data on Thursday).

These are notoriously volatile figures. But it is plausible some of this reflects a change in how we do our jobs. Employees love working from home because it saves on commuting and other aggravations, and lets them pursue personal matters during the day such as going for a run or picking up the kids from daycare. They can catch up on missed work at night or during the weekend.

Employees think they’re 7.4% more productive working from home, according to surveys conducted by Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University and two co-authors. Their managers think the opposite, estimating workers are 3.5% less productive at home. The reason, according to the economists’ review of recent research, is that communicating with an employee at home is more cumbersome and time-consuming, while reduced social interaction and feedback diminish creativity and learning.

Many workers find distractions, from the fridge to the television, at home. The authors note international chess players perform worse remotely, despite the motivation of prize money and rankings, proof that “overcoming potential self-control issues may not be easy.”

Employers might be less willing to let employees work from home if the economy eventually slides into a recession and unemployment rises. “We’re probably not in steady state at this point, and some reversal of the movement toward remote work seems likely to me,” said Katharine Abraham, a labor economist at the University of Maryland.

Bloom is less sure. He and his co-authors concluded the loss of productivity was confined to those working remote full time rather than just a few days a week. And even if productivity suffers, that might be more than made up for by cost savings. Remote employees might need less office space, live in cheaper places and accept lower pay: The authors found employees value working from home two or three days a week as equivalent to an 8% pay increase. It will take more than the threat of unemployment to undo this shift in values.

[Derby]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/03/homes/mortgage-rate-august-3/index.html

Mortgage rates climb toward 7% after America’s credit rating was downgraded

Washington, DC CNN — US mortgage rates jumped this week, climbing closer to 7%. The move follows last week’s rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and the downgrade this week by Fitch Ratings agency of US sovereign debt, and of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.90% in the week ending on August 3, up from 6.81% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate was 4.99%, the lowest rates have been in the last 12 months.

“The combination of upbeat economic data and the U.S. government credit rating downgrade caused mortgage rates to rise this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Despite higher rates and lower purchase demand, home prices have increased due to very low unsold inventory.”

The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey includes only borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/0df6a05b-ec75-4f2b-893f-cd049fc77d5a

The global* inflation slowdown

*if you ignore the UK

Pity the UK. Sure, inflation is slowing there as well, but from higher level and far more slowly than in most other countries.

Here’s a Goldman Sachs chart showing just how much global price pressures have abated this year (and how its economists expect them to continue to ease):




And here is 2023 broken down by regions. As you can see, even emerging markets excluding China — which is flirting with deflation — now have a much lower core inflation rate than the UK (at 6.9 per cent in June).



The decline in core inflation rates has mainly been driven by falling goods prices, as well as lower service inflation (at least outside Europe).



These charts are from a new report by Goldman’s economists Joseph Briggs and Giovanni Pierdomenico on what they call the “anatomy of a global core inflation slowdown”. Here are their main points:

— Global core inflation has slowed sharply. In DM economies, core inflation — defined as consumer prices excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco — has fallen from a peak pace of 6% (3mma) to 4% today, while core inflation in EMs has retraced more than half of its overshoot. Details of the slowdown are even more positive, as trimmed core inflation has slowed to just over 2% in most major DMs, and core inflation is slowing at an increasingly rapid pace in the “early hiker” economies that are the furthest along in their hiking cycles.

— The key drivers of the core inflation slowdown are fairly common across countries. Slower core goods ex vehicles inflation accounts for over 1pp of the broader slowdown in almost all economies, while vehicles inflation has on average lowered global core inflation by over 1pp relative to its peak. Core services ex shelter inflation has also cooled meaningfully in most countries (outside of Europe) because of progress on labor market rebalancing and wage growth.

— The disinflationary forces that we had expected to lead core inflation lower — especially supply chain improvements and slower wage growth — are now arriving with a vengeance, as inflation surprises around data releases have recently turned negative. Combined with our view that all of these forces have room to run, the shift in the pattern of surprises adds to our confidence that global core inflation will fall back below 3% in 2024.

Of course, the question is whether inflation continues to cool off from there and heads back below the 2 per cent targets of most central banks. If not, then the coming rate hiking pause might prove only prove a temporary respite rather than the cycle’s peak.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/a7dfd132-ba8c-481f-aa7a-2f0731751559

Fitch downgrades US on ‘erosion of governance’

Fair enough!

Aaand there it is. Fitch is the latest rating agency to strip the US of its triple A rating, downgrading it to a more humdrum AA+.

That puts in level with the likes of New Zealand, Austria and Canada, below countries such as Denmark and Luxembourg, and within touching distance of France, Ireland and Czechia.

Growing government debts gets a shout-out, but this seems to be clearly triggered by the latest debt ceiling shitshow impasse, which exemplifies what Fitch terms “a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years”.

You can read the full rationale here, and here are some key excerpts:

Ratings Downgrade: The rating downgrade of the United States reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to ‘AA’ and ‘AAA’ rated peers over the last two decades that has manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.

Erosion of Governance: In Fitch’s view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025. The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management. In addition, the government lacks a medium-term fiscal framework, unlike most peers, and has a complex budgeting process. These factors, along with several economic shocks as well as tax cuts and new spending initiatives, have contributed to successive debt increases over the last decade. Additionally, there has been only limited progress in tackling medium-term challenges related to rising social security and Medicare costs due to an aging population.

Rising General Government Deficits: We expect the general government (GG) deficit to rise to 6.3% of GDP in 2023, from 3.7% in 2022, reflecting cyclically weaker federal revenues, new spending initiatives and a higher interest burden. Additionally, state and local governments are expected to run an overall deficit of 0.6% of GDP this year after running a small surplus of 0.2% of GDP in 2022. Cuts to non-defense discretionary spending (15% of total federal spending) as agreed in the Fiscal Responsibility Act offer only a modest improvement to the medium-term fiscal outlook, with cumulative savings of USD1.5 trillion (3.9% of GDP) by 2033 according to the Congressional Budget Office. The near-term impact of the Act is estimated at USD70 billion (0.3% of GDP) in 2024 and USD112 billion (0.4% of GDP) in 2025. Fitch does not expect any further substantive fiscal consolidation measures ahead of the November 2024 elections.

Fitch forecasts a GG deficit of 6.6% of GDP in 2024 and a further widening to 6.9% of GDP in 2025. The larger deficits will be driven by weak 2024 GDP growth, a higher interest burden and wider state and local government deficits of 1.2% of GDP in 2024-2025 (in line with the historical 20-year average). The interest-to-revenue ratio is expected to reach 10% by 2025 (compared to 2.8% for the ‘AA’ median and 1% for the ‘AAA’ median) due to the higher debt level as well as sustained higher interest rates compared with pre-pandemic levels.

Coming hot on the heels of the US Treasury lifting its estimate for how much it will need to borrow in the third quarter to over $1tn and Donald Trump revealing that another indictment is coming, it’s hard to argue with Fitch’s rationale here (even if ratings don’t actually matter).(...)

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-united-states-long-term-ratings-to-aa-from-aaa-outlook-stable-01-08-2023

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-03/boe-raises-rates-to-5-25-with-warning-policy-will-remain-tight

BOE Raises Rates to 5.25% With Warning Policy Will Remain Tight
Central bank lifts interest rate aquarter point to 5.25%
Investors see indications of possible pause by end of year

The Bank of England raised interest rates to a new 15-year high, warning that its fight against inflation may require tighter borrowing conditions for an extended period.

The UK central bank lifted its key rate a quarter point to 5.25% on Thursday, which was in line with market expectations after a surprise half-point increase in June. Still, signs of debate between policymakers prompted traders to pare bets on the pace of further hikes, with markets priced in for rates to peak below 5.75% in February.(...)

[sudden and sharp]

Un monumento les va a dedicar Sánchez a esos medios de derecha que tanto le "fustigan".

Ved la táctica explicada al detalle:

La audacia de Sánchez y la facundia del cretino
[/https://www.libertaddigital.com/opinion/2023-08-02/agapito-maestre-la-audacia-de-sanchez-y-la-facundia-del-cretino-7039004/