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Si se repite el ciclo y hay re-re-re-rescate me echo al monte. No tendrá ningún sentido seguir remando en esta galera extractora de rentas.
Los empresarios generamos riqueza y los jardineros hacen la fotosíntesisJULEN BOLLAINDoctor en Estudios sobre Desarrollo, profesor e investigador en Mondragon Unibertsitatea.../...https://blogs.publico.es/otrasmiradas/68115/los-empresarios-generamos-riqueza-y-los-jardineros-hacen-la-fotosintesis/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=Publico&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1674737680
Cita de: Negrule en Enero 26, 2023, 16:12:57 pmLos empresarios generamos riqueza y los jardineros hacen la fotosíntesisJULEN BOLLAINDoctor en Estudios sobre Desarrollo, profesor e investigador en Mondragon Unibertsitatea.../...https://blogs.publico.es/otrasmiradas/68115/los-empresarios-generamos-riqueza-y-los-jardineros-hacen-la-fotosintesis/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=Publico&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1674737680Un buen batiburrillo que seguro tiene su público; público no muy emprendedor, generalmente, y con dudoso saldo fiscal.No confundir mega-ricos con empresarios (incluidos autónomos), por favor
Cita de: Benzino Napaloni en Enero 26, 2023, 14:13:57 pmCita de: el malo en Enero 26, 2023, 13:45:06 pmTiene sentido, pero ¿no es eso lo que YA está pasando? (o por lo menos el comienzo). Imagino que el "coma inducido" se referirá a algo más drástico, porque como haya que esperar a que oferta y demanda se encuentren al ritmo actual de precios y salarios, nos llevamos por delante otras dos generaciones.Por eso decía lo del duelo. "Holdear" no es malo per se cuando es un problema coyuntural. Si por sistema entrásemos en pánico, nos ahogaríamos en agua ante el menor contratiempo. Los cambios, sobre todo los drásticos, se hacen ante un problema o cambio no coyuntural.Pero cuando el cambio es muy duro, necesitas una certeza muy fuerte de que hace falta. "No se hace mudanza en tiempos de tribulación". Para mí, sin duda hemos entrado en el cambio. Pero ahora tiene que consolidarse, y para eso es fundamental que no se repita 2012 con el rescate "whatever it takes".Si vuelve a haber rescate, el rentismo habrá ganado una vez más y entraremos en otra iteración del ciclo. Pero si el grifo se mantiene cerrado el tiempo suficiente, los precios caerán por su propio peso. Lo que ya pasó a partir de 2008 de forma incompleta, vamos.Por nuestra parte ahora mismo es fundamental reírnos, creernos la mitad de la mitad de lo que salga en la prensa, y esperar a que desfile el cadáver del enemigo. Vamos a oír excusas peregrinas de por qué no va a bajar el banano, y sólo se deben al pufo y al fin del sueño del rentismo que dejaría.Si se repite el ciclo y hay re-re-re-rescate me echo al monte. No tendrá ningún sentido seguir remando en esta galera extractora de rentas. Lo digo en serio, recojo velas, hablo con la empresa para que me permita trabajar en remoto el 100% (y si no, me da igual. Me largo) y me voy a un pueblo de entre 20.000 y 30.000 habitantes. Y ATPC.No se puede vivir para pagarle casi un 40% tu sueldo al gobierno vía impuestos (directos e indirectos) y otro 40% a un casero/banco.Y dentro de lo que cabe tengo una posición "privilegiada", con trabajo fijo y expectativas de ser muy estable (aunque nunca se sabe). No me quiero ni imaginar a la familia que viva a dos nóminas de los números rojos. PS: he releído el comentario antes de darle a publicar y he pensado que vaya m*erda de todo.. soy un privilegiado porque tengo un trabajo fijo. Y el cadalso que sigue sin instalarse frente al Congreso.
Cita de: el malo en Enero 26, 2023, 13:45:06 pmTiene sentido, pero ¿no es eso lo que YA está pasando? (o por lo menos el comienzo). Imagino que el "coma inducido" se referirá a algo más drástico, porque como haya que esperar a que oferta y demanda se encuentren al ritmo actual de precios y salarios, nos llevamos por delante otras dos generaciones.Por eso decía lo del duelo. "Holdear" no es malo per se cuando es un problema coyuntural. Si por sistema entrásemos en pánico, nos ahogaríamos en agua ante el menor contratiempo. Los cambios, sobre todo los drásticos, se hacen ante un problema o cambio no coyuntural.Pero cuando el cambio es muy duro, necesitas una certeza muy fuerte de que hace falta. "No se hace mudanza en tiempos de tribulación". Para mí, sin duda hemos entrado en el cambio. Pero ahora tiene que consolidarse, y para eso es fundamental que no se repita 2012 con el rescate "whatever it takes".Si vuelve a haber rescate, el rentismo habrá ganado una vez más y entraremos en otra iteración del ciclo. Pero si el grifo se mantiene cerrado el tiempo suficiente, los precios caerán por su propio peso. Lo que ya pasó a partir de 2008 de forma incompleta, vamos.Por nuestra parte ahora mismo es fundamental reírnos, creernos la mitad de la mitad de lo que salga en la prensa, y esperar a que desfile el cadáver del enemigo. Vamos a oír excusas peregrinas de por qué no va a bajar el banano, y sólo se deben al pufo y al fin del sueño del rentismo que dejaría.
Tiene sentido, pero ¿no es eso lo que YA está pasando? (o por lo menos el comienzo). Imagino que el "coma inducido" se referirá a algo más drástico, porque como haya que esperar a que oferta y demanda se encuentren al ritmo actual de precios y salarios, nos llevamos por delante otras dos generaciones.
Creo, a mi entender, que este es uno de los problemas de hoy en día, que un pequeño/mediano empresario, o autónomo lea este artículo y piense que va contra el, por lo tanto, que se considere que está al mismo nivel que a las sociedades que se refiere el artículo. Lo mismo le pasa al propietario de una vivienda que se piensa que tiene los mismos intereses que BlackRock, o un ciudadano de clase media que cree estar al mismo nivel, o tener intereses comunes, que familias del barrio de Salamanca, o Pedralbes. Como nos están comiendo la tostada.
US economy beats expectations with 2.9% growthResilient fourth quarter data come as Fed’s rate rises weigh on business activityThe US economy logged better than expected growth in the final quarter of 2022, even as the Federal Reserve’s aggressive campaign to raise borrowing costs began to weigh more heavily on business activity.The world’s largest economy expanded 2.9 per cent on an annualised basis between September and December, according to data published by the commerce department on Thursday, slightly higher than economists’ forecasts of a 2.6 per cent increase. That marked a slowdown from 3.2 per cent growth in the third quarter, reflecting the steps the US central bank has taken so far to damp demand.Since March, the Fed has raised its policy rate by more than 4 percentage points, repeatedly moving in 0.75 percentage point increments in a bid to catch up to inflation that proved far more intense than expected.The Fed is now preparing to deliver a quarter-point rate rise, from the current range of 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent, at its meeting next week as it determines how much more to unleash on the economy now inflation appears to have peaked. Officials broadly back the federal funds rate hitting 5 per cent, and for that level to be maintained at least to the end of the year, suggesting further rate rises to come beyond the February decision.The GDP data are the latest sign that the economy has proved more resilient than expected in the face of substantially higher borrowing costs, while also showing that the Fed’s actions are beginning to have a more notable effect.“Looking at the headline [figure], it’s all looking good. But, looking under the hood, it’s just those troubling signs and a loss of momentum that we’ve been seeing really in broad swaths of the data,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.(...)
Introduction: Former Bank of England chief economist warns of 'more pain to come' in rising mortgage costs and falling real wages(...) Asked whether he had any regrets, as the Bank of England has hiked interest rates at the same time as when the massive energy price hikes and inflation have come through:It is painful and I fear there is more pain to come as those mortgage rate rises from last year begin to hit people’s bank accounts over the course of this year. I would have preferred the Bank and other central banks to have started their rate rises a bit sooner. That would have helped a bit in nipping inflation in the bud and would have meant that we wouldn’t have had those rapid rate rises at the same time as the economy was hitting the buffers. But overall this global shock was always going to bring a significant degree of pain including through higher rates.I’m hoping that with headline inflation now having peaked there is a decent chance that central banks will go a bit slower over the course of this year and won’t become too much of a brake on the recovery and the early signs on that was some flickers of life in the economy.
China’s property slump is easing, but the relief will be short-livedWithout reforms, the sector is doomed to cycles of boom and bust(...) Technocrats tend to respond to crises with lots of liquidity. During the global financial crisis of 2007-09 much of China’s vast stimulus flowed into bricks and mortar. A property downturn in 2014 led to a bout of monetary easing that saw house prices in some places double in less than a year. Elsewhere the result was rampant overbuilding; hence the high-rise ghost cities that loom over parts of China.Local governments, meanwhile, still rely heavily on land auctions for revenue, so they have an incentive to keep sales going. They are already stepping in to support large developers by guaranteeing their commercial paper. If they have their way, the property market will come roaring back.A rekindling of such forces would be disastrous for the central government. They would lift home prices to new heights and lead to another build-up of unsustainable debts among developers. Officials would be forced once again to crack down on leverage, repeating a cycle they have already been through several times.You might think that the recovery would instead offer room for more considered thinking. But China’s leaders have long lacked the will to implement the necessary reforms. A housing tax, for example, has been floated several times. It would curb speculation and generate much-needed income for local governments. But the urban elite, which stores much of its wealth in property, would hate it. So far only a few pilot schemes have been tried out.And so the funding model for local governments remains unchanged. Local officials will keep trying to pep up sales and prices. But who will live in all the new homes? Morgan Stanley, a bank, estimates there will be 90m new urban households in the next decade. But at its peak, China was adding about 15m homes a year. If supply is to match demand, construction will have to slow dramatically, especially as China’s population shrinks. Today’s bail-out may be reviving Chinese property, but without real reforms the sector will be doomed to boom and bust again.
Cita de: Negrule en Enero 26, 2023, 20:19:14 pmCreo, a mi entender, que este es uno de los problemas de hoy en día, que un pequeño/mediano empresario, o autónomo lea este artículo y piense que va contra el, por lo tanto, que se considere que está al mismo nivel que a las sociedades que se refiere el artículo. Lo mismo le pasa al propietario de una vivienda que se piensa que tiene los mismos intereses que BlackRock, o un ciudadano de clase media que cree estar al mismo nivel, o tener intereses comunes, que familias del barrio de Salamanca, o Pedralbes. Como nos están comiendo la tostada.Claro que tienen los mismos intereses.¿Qué otros intereses tienen los BlackRocks respecto de los propietarios de una vivienda que no sea ganar dinero con El Pisito?Si no fuera por esos intereses comunes, los BlackRocks no serían lo que son, ni les dejarían hacer lo que hacen.
Blackstone faces $5bn of withdrawal requests from more property fundsPrivate equity group already contending with investors wanting to pull cash from BreitBlackstone is facing more than $5bn in redemption requests from another set of property funds, adding to pressure on the world’s largest alternative asset manager as investors try to pull out their cash.Blackstone Property Partners, a real estate offering for big institutions such as pension funds and endowments, is facing redemption requests equal to 7 per cent of its $73bn net asset value, the New York group said on an earnings call on Thursday.BPP is comprised of dozens of funds Blackstone uses to invest in property. The withdrawal requests have not been fulfilled as the parts of BPP from which investors want to pull cash require that new money comes in before Blackstone has to meet redemptions.That stands in contrast to Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, or Breit, which was hit by withdrawals last year by wealthy individual investors concerned about the long-term health of the property market and a need to raise short-term cash.In December, Blackstone limited investor redemptions from Breit after the withdrawals breached 2 per cent of assets in a single month, or 5 per cent in a quarter — giving the group the right to gate the $69bn fund.Jonathan Gray, president of Blackstone, on Thursday warned that the still-gated Breit was facing an “uplift” in withdrawal requests this month as some investors tried to compensate for unrequited orders.“We have a backlog from November and December,” Gray said in an interview with the Financial Times. “I will say the tone of the conversations with our advisers is much improved.”Blackstone shares had tumbled when Breit limited withdrawals, but have recovered the losses, fuelled by a broad market rebound and a $4bn investment made by the University of California into the fund this month.Blackstone has promised the UC a minimum annual return of 11.25 per cent for six years and is providing a $1bn backstop against those returns. If the returns fall short, Blackstone will forfeit Breit shares it owns to the UC until either the return threshold is met, or the $1bn is exhausted.On Wednesday, the UC invested a further $500mn into Breit, and Blackstone contributed a further $125mn of its holdings in support of the return guarantees.Had UC invested in BPP, rather than Breit, the inflows could have allowed some investors in BPP to redeem their holdings.“We haven’t really heard much from our clients in the institutional world around BPP vis-à-vis Breit and the [UC],” Gray said when asked if investors had complained about the arrangement.Blackstone sees the redemption requests from BPP as manageable but they suggest liquidity risks will continue to affect fees and asset growth this year.While Blackstone’s perpetual real estate funds fell about 1.5 per cent in value during the quarter, they gained more than 10 per cent in 2022, fuelled by rising income from the properties.Investors also continue to pour money into Blackstone, which raised more than $43bn for the quarter, propelling overall assets under management to a record $975bn.In fourth-quarter results released on Thursday, Blackstone posted a sharp drop in profits as its fee-based earnings were hit by falling performance at Breit and worsening economic conditions.Blackstone’s fee-related earnings, a proxy for the management fees it earns, plunged 42 per cent to $1.1bn. Its distributable earnings — a metric favoured by analysts as a proxy for overall cash flows — fell a similar amount to $1.3bn. On a per-share basis, the results either met or exceeded analysts’ forecasts polled by Bloomberg.Blackstone shares gained more than 3 per cent in early afternoon trading.
Bed Bath & Beyond Says It Received Default Notice From JPMorgan*Notice requires immediate debt repayment, filing says*Company says it lacks cash to make accelerated paymentsBed Bath & Beyond Inc. said it received a default notice from JPMorgan Chase & Co. after it failed to prepay an overadvance and satisfy certain creditor protections.Creditors are demanding immediate repayment of the company’s debt, according to a regulatory filing Thursday. Bed Bath & Beyond listed around $2.1 billion of obligations it owed as of November. The default notice also requires the company to cash collateralize certain debt and adds a 2% annual default rate interest penalty on obligations. “At this time, the Company does not have sufficient resources to repay the amounts under the Credit Facilities and this will lead the Company to consider all strategic alternatives, including restructuring its debt under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code,” the filing said.The company has begun speaking with potential lenders that would fund the firm during bankruptcy proceedings, Bloomberg reported earlier. A ubiquitous brand in the US, founded in 1971 in Union, New Jersey, Bed Bath & Beyond was once a staple of going-to-college shopping lists and wedding registries.The firm’s decline has been years in the making and has accelerated in recent months as suppliers have become increasingly concerned about the retailer’s financial future and made demands to receive payments in advance. Other manufacturers have lowered their credit limits with the retailer in order to reduce the risk of not getting paid for their products.That led to less merchandise on store shelves during the pivotal holiday season, which has exacerbated a vicious cycle of falling inventory levels, declining foot traffic and a decrease in revenue — which has made it harder, in turn, to pay suppliers.Bed Bath & Beyond shares plunged as much as 35% to $2.10.
GDP report reveals ominous Great Depression warning sign not seen since 1932Thursday's GDP report shows that real disposable income has fallen off a cliffThe latest numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that the U.S. economy grew by 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, and 2.1 percent for 2022. While the White House was quick to take credit for the state of the nation’s economy, they might want to think twice. This latest report should have alarm bells ringing, not have trumpets sounding.That’s because economic growth is slowing down. Even the areas which contributed positively to gross domestic product (GDP) are not necessarily signs of prosperity. For example, business investment grew at only 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter, but that was almost entirely inventory growth. Nonresidential investment, a key driver of future economic growth, was up just 0.7 percent.Meanwhile, residential investment fell off a cliff, dropping 26.7 percent as consumers were unable to afford the combination of high home prices, high interest rates, and falling real incomes. No wonder homeownership affordability has fallen to the lowest level in that metric’s history.But the growth in inventories, which accounted for half the GDP growth in the fourth quarter, is not a good sign either. It is the result of businesses being unable to sell off existing inventories at current prices. Liquidating that inventory at discounts will mean lower profits, a further drag on future growth.(...) But perhaps most troubling is the precipitous drop in real disposable income, which fell over $1 trillion in 2022.For context, this is the second-largest percentage drop in real disposable income ever, behind only 1932, the worst year of the Great Depression. To keep up with inflation, consumers are depleting their savings and burning through the "stimulus" checks they received during 2020 and 2021. Credit card debt continues growing while savings plummeted $1.6 trillion last year, falling below 2009 levels.As consumers continue depleting cash reserves, and borrowing costs are rising, the growth in consumer spending will keep slowing. Since that accounts for roughly two-thirds of GDP, this doesn’t bode well for the economy.Just how much pain is the consumer feeling? The average family has lost about $6,000 in annual purchasing power under Biden because prices have risen so much faster than wages. Higher interest rates have increased annual borrowing costs by $1,400, so that the average family effectively has $7,400 less in their annual budget. But that’s just the average. Someone trying to buy a median priced home today will have a monthly mortgage payment that is 80 percent higher than when Biden took office. That means spending an extra $9,500 a year for the same house. It’s no wonder people are financial strapped and taking on second or third jobs in this economy.Meanwhile, federal nondefense spending grew 11.2 percent in the fourth quarter, another example of politicians feeding the federal budget while starving the family budget.If you’ve ever driven a car that ran out of gas, you may have noticed the engine rev up right before stalling out. That seems to be what we are witnessing with the economy – an engine running on fumes, about to stop.