PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2023

[Derby]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vacation-rental-market-shift-unbooked/

Vacation rental market shift leaves owners in "nerve-wracking" situation as popular areas remain unbooked

For over two decades, Rory Steinel and his wife have rented out their beachside home along the Jersey Shore during the busy summer months. The property has always been highly sought after, with bookings typically filled for the summer by February.

But owners like the Steinels are now facing an unusual predicament as prime weeks in July and August remain unbooked, underscoring a significant change in the vacation rental market.

"We've never had a problem renting, not like this," said Rory Steinel.

During the COVID-19 pandemic and until last year, demand for vacation rentals soared, enabling owners like the Steinels to raise prices and fully book their properties for the summer. But this year, there is a decline in occupancy at popular summer vacation spots across the country.

Cape Cod, Massachusetts, Maui, Hawaii, Santa Rosa Beach, Florida, and San Diego, California have all seen a decline compared to last year, according to AirDNA, a tracking company that monitors the performance data of 10 million vacation rentals on platforms like Airbnb and Vrbo.

Steinel describes the financial considerations amid the evolving rental market as "nerve-wracking."   

"We want to make sure that we're able to make some money too, you know, not just cover our overhead," he said.

Jamie Lane, chief economist at AirDNA, said an uptick in international travel and the introduction of new rentals have given renters more options, which has led to fewer bookings per host.

Lane said the market is "definitely moving more towards a renter's, guest market" as individuals can now find deals and book last-minute accommodations more easily.

Jeannie Wheat, a seasoned realtor specializing in rentals at the Jersey Shore, said the 2023 vacation rental market in the area is down by approximately 15%. One five-bedroom home just a block and a half from the beach, which typically rents for $9,000 per week, is not fully booked, Wheat said. But this year, she has noticed more last-minute bookings.

PD. Este fin de semana, el Telediario de La1 ya empezó a hacerse eco de que la temporada estival no se presenta muy boyante.

https://www.rtve.es/play/videos/telediario-fin-de-semana/15-horas-08-07-23/6931030/

A partir del minuto 33:08 hay un comentario sobre el verano en la Hurdes, y concretamente en el minuto 33:45 ya se dice claramente que el problema no es tanto por el incendio sino por "la situación económica": "las familias están agobiadas". Ya van avisando de lo que será este verano a nivel de turismo.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Big-Tech Cities Are Still 'Facing a Reckoning' from Remote Work
Posted by EditorDavid on Monday July 10, 2023 @03:01AM from the we-built-this-city dept.

"According to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, nearly 73% of businesses reported that their workers rarely or never engaged in remote work in 2022 — closing in on pre-pandemic levels," writes a Seattle Times business columnist. "But this minority of the civilian workforce working remotely casts a large shadow over our economy, especially central business districts."

The column's headline argues that Seattle "is still facing the reckoning from remote work" — which may also be true in other big tech cities.

Kastle Systems, which tracks back-to-the-office moves, estimated 49.8% occupancy as of late June. Kastle uses a 10-city average ranging from New York to Los Angeles but doesn't include Seattle. In the latest report, Houston led at nearly 61% occupancy. San Jose, Calif., in the heart of Silicon Valley, where remote work flourishes, was the lowest at 38%. As of May, 48% of workers in Seattle's central core have returned to the office compared with 2019, according to the Downtown Seattle Association. The most significant boost has come from Amazon, which mandated employees must work in the office at least three days a week.

So, you can be an offices-half-full or an offices-half-empty kind of person.

Still, Capital Economics, an independent research firm, estimated this past month that remote work will shave 35% from the value of the U.S. office sector. In addition, it predicted many office buildings won't return to their previous peak values until 2040 or later... As loans come due for commercial real estate properties, many cities face a reckoning. Refinancing is difficult with high interest rates. In some cases, buildings are worth less than the land they occupy. Foreclosures and defaults are rising. This is already spilling over to hurt sectors that are dependent on offices, such as architects, cleaning services, construction and others. The Wall Street Journal estimates this accounts for a "multibillion-dollar ecosystem."

As a result, many American cities are struggling to convert office buildings unlikely to see workers again into other uses, especially apartments. Rigid zoning and building codes, the footprint of the structures, and resistance from nearby homeowners to increased density all make this difficult. Seattle is facing some of the same challenges. Mayor Bruce Harrell announced a "call for ideas" to alter some of the city's office space to residential or other uses...

Several trend lines are moving in the right direction — return of workers, number of residents, visitors and hotel occupancy are all going up, and crime is going down, with violent crime and property crime down the first five months of the year compared with 2022. Downtown has seen a 13.8% decrease in violent crime and a 35.1% drop in property crime over the same period... To be sure, we're in undiscovered territory. But giving up on downtown Seattle is not an option. It accounts for the majority of the city's business taxes and majority of its workers...

Whether remote or hybrid work remains for much of the local workforce or a gradual return to the office continues, the heart of the city must be healthy.

Saludos.

[copo]

La paradoja de la ciudad llena de casas vacías donde jóvenes e inmigrantes tienen problemas para alquilar

https://www.epe.es/es/reportajes/20230710/viviendas-vacias-espana-tomelloso-problemas-alquiler-89566524




Lo de siempre. Burbuja con un 30% de viviendas vacías mantenidas con dinero público y jóvenes sin futuro debido a los sueldos y el precio de las casas. Creo que refleja muy bien la decadencia del modelo.

Saludos.

[Derby]

Más sobre alquileres vacacionales en los USA:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/airbnb-bookings-dip-austin-san-francisco-prompting-doom-loop-fears

Airbnb bookings dip in Austin, San Francisco prompting ‘doom loop’ fears

Data shows that Airbnb bookings have declined in Austin and San Francisco

Airbnb bookings have declined over the past year in cities like Austin and San Francisco that have historically been popular destinations for short-term rentals, prompting concern over the economic uncertainty wracking urban areas and the prospect of a "doom loop" developing.

Nick Gerli, the CEO of Austin-based Reventure Consulting, recently tweeted that the "Airbnb collapse is real" and that, "Revenues are down nearly 50 percent in cities like Phoenix and Austin." He went on to say, "Watch out for a wave of forced selling from Airbnb owners later this year in the areas hardest hit by the revenue collapse."

Gerli cited AllTheRooms data which showed a 48.6% year-over-year decline in the average revenue per available listing in the three-month period ending in May for the Austin metropolitan area.

He attributed the decline to the end of pandemic-era migration, tweeting: "The pandemic is over. Fewer people are working from home / vacationing in states like Montana, Texas, and Tennessee. So the demand is way down. Just as the Airbnb supply went way up. So you get a crash."

An Airbnb spokesperson told FOX Business, "The data is not consistent with our own data. As we said during our Q1 earnings, more guests are traveling on Airbnb than ever before, with Nights and Experiences Booked growing 19% in Q1 2023 compared to a year ago."(...)

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-pension-funds-back-next-phase-post-brexit-city-shake-up-2023-07-10/

UK pension funds back next phase of post-Brexit City shake up

LONDON, July 10 (Reuters) - Aviva, Legal & General and seven other pension firms intend to invest 50 billion pounds ($64 billion) in unlisted companies by 2030 to help the City of London remain a competitive global finance centre after Brexit, finance minister Jeremy Hunt said.

Under a non-binding agreement, Aviva, Scottish Widows, Legal & General, Aegon, Phoenix, NEXT, Mercer, M&G and Smart Pension will allocate at least 5% of direct contribution pension funds into unlisted companies by the start of the next decade.

The so-called Mansion House Reforms seek to deliver an "evolutionary, rather than revolutionary, change in our pensions market, and to strengthen the UK's position as a leading financial centre", the finance ministry said.

Hunt's reforms represent a follow-up to last year's "Edinburgh Reforms" which sought to attract international growth company listings to Britain after its departure from the European Union largely cut off the City's access to the bloc.

"By unlocking investment, we will boost retirement income by over 1,000 pounds a year for a typical earner over the course of their career," Hunt said in excerpts of a speech he was due to deliver on Monday to a gathering of finance leaders.

Only 1% of Britain's 4.6 trillion pounds of pension and insurance assets are invested in unlisted companies, compared with upwards of 6% in Australia.

Within a year, the new plan will target fintech, life science, biotech, and clean technology firms, but exclude property and infrastructure, where huge debts at Thames Water have raised questions about the role of private investors in utilities.

It follows efforts by City of London Lord Mayor Nicholas Lyons to set up a 50 billion-pound investment vehicle to back UK start-ups.

Private equity investments typically offer greater returns in exchange for taking a greater risk, and many pension schemes have preferred to squirrel away cash in safer government bonds.

MANDATORY MERGERS

A new value-for-money framework will make clear that investments by pension firms should be based on overall long-term returns and not simply costs, the ministry said.

Pension schemes which are not achieving the best outcome for members will be wound up into larger, better-performing schemes, the ministry said. There will be plans for a "superfund" regime to mirror the investment firepower of huge schemes in Australia and Canada.

The British Business Bank, which seeks to support lending to small and medium-sized firms, will explore how Britain could set up investment vehicles.

There will also be a public consultation about the feasibility of setting a target of 10%, or an additional 25 billion pounds, for local government pension schemes to invest in private equity by 2030.

"We need more transparency around asset allocation, costs and investment returns from local government pension schemes before taking any far-reaching decisions about consolidation or asset pooling in that sector," Lyons said.

Other proposed reforms include simplifying the prospectuses that companies publish ahead of issuing stocks and bonds.

In a long-awaited move hailed by supporters of Britain's departure from the EU as a "Brexit dividend", curbs inherited from the bloc on share trading would be scrapped, and another disputed EU-era rule on how broker research should be charged might also be removed, the ministry said.

"The plans in relation to research are particularly positive, as they should help to resolve longstanding concerns about the availability of research for SMEs," Norton Rose Fulbright lawyer Jonathan Herbst said.

A new "intermittent trading venue" would provide unlisted private companies with a way of accessing investors.

The ministry also welcomed a report on ways to move to fully digital shares by scrapping outdated paper-based stock certificates.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/798a0d07-d36d-4356-91db-8570b2f5486f

Goldman’s €32bn UK mortgage cost forecasts in full

Here’s what a 6% interest rate might mean for British households

Goldman Sachs has just published a new report on the UK mortgage market and monetary policy. If you didn’t snag a five-year fixed rate deal in mid-2021 then look away now.

The unsurprising TL;DR is that mortgage costs have rocketed lately, and since Brits have relatively short-term mortgages, this is going to hurt, individually and for the economy.



The good news is that because many people did sign up short-term fixed-rate mortgages deals in recent years, the effective rate on the overall £1.7tn UK residential mortgage market will still ‘only’ rise to 4.6 per cent by the end of 2024, up from 2.1 per cent in mid-2021.

So things would have been far worse a decade ago, when about 70 per cent of UK mortgages were floating rate.



The bad news is that the slow and uneven transmission mechanism this leads to means that the Bank of England will probably lift rates even higher than previously thought — to 6 per cent by next year, according to Goldman (markets fear it could go as high as 6.5 per cent, while JPMorgan said last week that 7 per cent looks a realistic possibility). In other words if you didn’t refinance and lock in a low rate in the salad days, you’re basically the sacrificial lamb offered up by the BoE to tame inflation.

And even the 4.6 per cent effective rate will translate into an extra £32bn increase in mortgage payments by 2024, as lower principal repayments and (to a far lesser extent) longer repayment plans slightly blunts the direct pain of higher rates feeding through.



This will translate into a drag on economic growth of about 0.6 percentage point by next year, Goldman Sachs economist James Moberly estimates, even before any second-round effects.

https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/07/07/d5f44f77-2e6d-4ae5-99b3-56873f466550.html#

[saturno]

¿Tienen límite? ¿Tanto odian o es sólo "business as usual" del "Foro de S. Paulo"?

Todo en el mejor estilo de las prácticas recomendadas por Laclau y Mouffe en su ampliamente difundida obra "Hegemonía y Estrategia Socialista".

A lo mejor deberíamos hacer una "Cárcel de Papel" para medios que sistemáticamente Desinforman y para Partidos Políticos que viven de destruirnos enfrentándonos.

Manu, ¿podrías hacernos un post sobre las técnicas y fundementos teóricos de las manipulaciones de ideas con fines de modificación programada del modelo de sociedad ?
Pienso en cosas como las Revoluciones naranja (ONG de Soros por ej,) o más tradicionalmente sobre la transmision del modelo de sociedad  USA en AmLatina, paises del Este, Asia, etc

Es decir, no pedirnos compartir evidencias (de falsedad) sino decirnos por qué eso que dices ser mentiras, son evidencias, por mucho que lo compartimos

Pongo por  ejemplos de este último post  (¡Links!)

"Foro de S. Paulo"
Laclau y Mouffe en su ampliamente difundida obra "Hegemonía y Estrategia Socialista".
una "Cárcel de Papel"

Tienes un fondo de lecturas considerable, Intenta transmitirlo, sin más,

Otros que puedan aportar sobre el tema, también,

Me interesa, Pero no sé ni cómo definir lo que quiero saber.
Si me encontráis un título para un hilo, abro el hilo y vamos agrupando ese conocimiento,

(Gracias)

[pollo]

Más sobre alquileres vacacionales en los USA:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/airbnb-bookings-dip-austin-san-francisco-prompting-doom-loop-fears

Airbnb bookings dip in Austin, San Francisco prompting ‘doom loop’ fears

Data shows that Airbnb bookings have declined in Austin and San Francisco

Airbnb bookings have declined over the past year in cities like Austin and San Francisco that have historically been popular destinations for short-term rentals, prompting concern over the economic uncertainty wracking urban areas and the prospect of a "doom loop" developing.

Nick Gerli, the CEO of Austin-based Reventure Consulting, recently tweeted that the "Airbnb collapse is real" and that, "Revenues are down nearly 50 percent in cities like Phoenix and Austin." He went on to say, "Watch out for a wave of forced selling from Airbnb owners later this year in the areas hardest hit by the revenue collapse."

Gerli cited AllTheRooms data which showed a 48.6% year-over-year decline in the average revenue per available listing in the three-month period ending in May for the Austin metropolitan area.

He attributed the decline to the end of pandemic-era migration, tweeting: "The pandemic is over. Fewer people are working from home / vacationing in states like Montana, Texas, and Tennessee. So the demand is way down. Just as the Airbnb supply went way up. So you get a crash."

An Airbnb spokesperson told FOX Business, "The data is not consistent with our own data. As we said during our Q1 earnings, more guests are traveling on Airbnb than ever before, with Nights and Experiences Booked growing 19% in Q1 2023 compared to a year ago."(...)

Estoy deseando con ganas que toda esta panda de parásitos listillos se pegue la gran hostia de su vida. Sobre todo porque sería importante romper (de nuevo) el mito de que "bajar nunca bajan" y "hay zonas y zonas".

Y ojalá haya hostias de este tipo en muchas zonas de España este verano. Imagino que se sabrá con mucha más facilidad después de que haya pasado el verano y las propias elecciones.

[asustadísimos]

[DESPLOME DE LOS PRÉSTAMOS BANCARIOS PARA VIVIENDA.—

El 'Informe de situación financiera de los hogares y las empresas - 1.^er semestre 2023', del Banco de España, contiene un gráfico que explica lo que está pasando en el politiqueo español (sentido de voto de la mayoría natural electoral e interés en estar al mando):

El Banco España viene a decir que los efectos del endurecimiento monetario ya se están haciendo notar en el 'ahorro del pobre', perdón, en la adquisición de vivienda. Pero en realidad piensa que lo que está pasando es más profundo porque:

— no encaja con el cronograma previsto en «Banco España, Informe Anual 2022, págs. 157 y 172 del pdf»;

— silencia que el desplome en los préstamos para vivienda es como el observado durante la pandemia de cóvid;

— no nos ilustra acerca del porqué de la diferencia entre préstamos para vivienda y para lo demás; y,

— en relación con la financiación de las empresas, cuando dice que con ellas no va la cosa, lo hace de una forma tan categórica que no deja lugar a dudas: «Los colchones de liquidez de las empresas no han mostrado variaciones significativas durante los últimos meses y se mantendrían en niveles superiores a los de 2019. Esta conclusión se desprende tanto de los balances de las empresas como de los datos de las líneas de crédito disponibles en la Central de Información de Riesgos».

Blanco y en botella.

Todo encaja.

Recuerden: Requetecatacrack 02/10/2023.]

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12362596/07/23/necesaria-reflexion-ante-el-despido.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12357531/07/23/los-despidos-se-disparan-un-43-en-lo-que-va-de-ano-y-el-problema-no-es-su-coste.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/banca-finanzas/noticias/12362771/07/23/el-corte-ingles-vende-70-millones-en-credito-moroso-al-noruego-b2holding.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230711/page/11/textview

La banca española aporta el 9,7% del fondo de rescate europeo

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12361817/07/23/las-fusiones-y-adquisiciones-caen-un-15-en-espana-en-el-primer-semestre-.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12361795/07/23/espana-ocupa-los-ultimos-puestos-en-libertad-economica-y-de-empresa.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12362084/07/23/los-salarios-suben-en-junio-al-326-pero-siguen-por-debajo-de-la-subyacente.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230711/page/26/textview

Funcas alerta del efecto negativo del envejecimiento laboral

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230711/page/28/textview

El Gobierno y los sindicatos pactan 30.000 plazas para la Administración

Saludos.