Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022

[JoaquinR]

Coincidentemente estoy investigando el sector del delivery (o quizás por eso lo estoy posteando, claro....ah, no que vino el post de Ikea y su crecimiento y fue ala hilo de eso).

Notición:

Delivery Hero increases revenues by 52% YoY and advances on its path to profitability

Delivery Hero es la matriz de Glovo. Sus noticias son siempre iguales. Crecemos, crecemos, crecemos, cada vez vendemos más.
La cosa es que desde que se creó, en 2011 no ha ganado dinero nunca (salvo en 2019, supongo que por una venta). Tengo que investigar más. 12 años perdiendo, las pérdidas acumuladas son tales que me da pereza sumarlas.

Lógicamente ha sobrevivido a base de  vender no sus servicios de reparto sino sus acciones y otro tipo de deuda. Es decir necesitaba que periódicamente alguien llegase y soltase pasta (rondas de financiación, ampliaciones de capital...). Cotiza en bolsa desde 2017, el problema es que en un año sus acciones han caído un 70,22% si ya no pueden "vender la empresa" y tampoco pueden sobrevivir vendiendo sus servicios, ¿Qué objeto tiene que existan si ya no se puede jugar al juego de pasar la maula?.

Creo que quedan unos pocos meses para ver que dejan de prestar servicios.

Sobre Just Eat se puede decir casi lo mismo.

Sobre esto algo puedo contar, porque resulta que estoy trabajando en este sector (desde el área de desarrollo). En Europa no hay beneficios, pero Delivery Hero en MENA, Asia y América sí que hacen dinero, y bastante. En Europa hay demasiada competencia, la mano de obra y el combustible salen caros, pero no es el caso en otros lugares.

Respecto a Amazon, sí que tienen resuelta la última milla. En costes energéticos es mucho más barato un señor con una furgoneta llevando paquetes desde el centro de distribución al punto A, después a punto B y después a C que una masa de gente marchando desde A, B y C hasta el centro de distribución y vuelta. Eso sí, hay que optimizar (y mucho) la gestión de los envíos, la paquetería, el embalaje y etc. Eso no es fácil, pero ellos lo resolvieron hace una década y lo optimizan bajando el coste (el que les cuesta a ellos) por envío un par de puntos porcentuales cada año. Mucho machine learning, pero sobre todo montones de cerebros humanos reales muy bien pagados trabajando en experimentos para ver cómo es la mejor manera de hacer esto.

Probablemente el destino final del retail sea Amazon abriendo medianas superficies como showrooms con un único ejemplo de cada cosa, y luego te vas a casa y te llega lo que hayas pedido.

Editado: Por supuesto, cuando llegue el momento será con patatas locales en lugar de patatas peruanas, y zapatos de Elche o donde sea. Pero la distribución te la hará Amazon.

[Benzino Napaloni]

“Ahora es el momento adecuado para comprar vivienda”



Exactamente igual que en 2009, cuando las cuñas de los corbatas verdes inundaban la radio diciendo "ahora es el mejor momento para comprar".

SNB dice que la hostia vendrá tras las elecciones generales, pero no sé yo si queda suficiente gasolina... Mantengo mi apuesta de que más de uno lo va a fiar todo a la campaña de verano y holdeará hasta entonces.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-14/spain-risks-missing-recovery-fund-cash-after-skipping-deadlines

Spain Risks Missing Recovery Fund Cash After Skipping Deadlines

*At stake are new payments from 160 billion-euro share
*Madrid is the second-biggest beneficiary from EU fund

Spain missed a second deadline last month to implement a reform required to unlock money from the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund, putting at risk new payments from the €160 billion ($156 billion) it’s eligible to receive.

The Spanish government has failed to set up a new auditing system, one of the milestones it agreed to as part of the EU’s €724 billion Recovery and Resilience Facility, according to people familiar with the matter. Madrid has already been handed about €31 billion of its total allocation.

Spain won’t be able to get any additional funds until the milestone is reached, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the process is private.

One of the European economies hit hardest by Covid-19, Spain is the second-largest beneficiary after Italy of the fund. The recovery money is key for the country, which faces headwinds stemming from the energy crisis. Madrid has had longstanding difficulties reforming the economy.(...)

Senior commission officials warned the Spanish government, during a visit to the country last month, that there would be no further disbursements until the auditing system is in place and fully functional, an EU official said.

Spokespeople from the European Commission, which oversees the recovery fund, and from Spain’s budget ministry, declined to comment.

Spanish Economy Minister Nadia Calvino has said that deployment of the funds has already reached cruising speed, helping to boost activity with financing for more than 28,800 projects across the country. The rapid pace of transfers to local governments has yet to match actual spending, however, with small companies complaining of lack of access to tenders, warned the country’s main trade lobby CEOE.

Spain has so far received three transfers from the recovery fund, but released little information about actual spending precisely because the control system is not fully operational, according to academics and analysts who have reviewed its progress. Last year, Spain spent about 27% of what it budgeted for recovery funds outlays or about 6.5 billion euros, according to calculations by Madrid-based think tank Fedea.

Setting up the unified system has been particularly difficult due to the different levels of governments in Spain responsible for spending. Many local government are refraining from spending until the system is put in place and audit rules are clear.

“The moment this system is implemented, spending will take off because many regions and public entities already have the funds and are just waiting for the green light,” said Jose Moises Martin, partner of Madrid-based consultancy Red2Red.

[senslev]

https://zensecondlife.blogspot.com/2022/10/the-efficient-explosion-model.html

[senslev]

A vigilar.

[Derby]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/14/business/economy/liz-truss-britain-inflation.html

In U.K. Fallout, Lessons for a World Facing Harsh Economic Realities

The sharp policy U-turn by Liz Truss, Britain’s prime minister, reveals the perils of taking the wrong path in the fight against scalding inflation.

(...)Tension between the fiscal spending policies proposed by a government and the monetary policies controlled by central banks is not unusual. At the moment, though, central bankers are engaged in delicate policy maneuvers in the fight against a level of inflation not seen in decades. With the rate in Britain nearing 10 percent, the Bank of England has moved aggressively to slow down climbing prices through a series of interest rate increases aimed at crimping consumer and business spending.

Any expansion of government spending is going to interfere with that aim to some degree, but Ms. Truss’s plan was far too big and too ill-defined, Mr. Prasad said.

“Measures to help households hit hard by energy increases, by themselves, would not have created that much of a stir,” he said. Many other countries have proposed exactly that. And the European Union has proposed a windfall tax on energy profits to help finance those subsidies.

By contrast, Ms. Truss, instead of coming up with a way to pay for energy assistance, pushed to eliminate a corporate tax increase and cut income taxes for the wealthiest segment of the population. The result was a reduction in government revenue and a ballooning of Britain’s debt.

“Overall, the package did not have much clarity in terms of how it would support the economy in the short run without raising inflation,” Mr. Prasad said.

As a point of contrast, Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, cited the way governments and central banks worked in tandem when the pandemic struck in 2020 to keep economies from collapsing, issuing massive amounts of public debt.

“Central banks printed every single dollar, euro and pound that governments spent” to support households and businesses because of the Covid crisis, Mr. Vistesen said. But now the circumstances have changed, and inflation is setting economies aflame.

Both the United States and eurozone countries have somewhat more wiggle room than Britain, because the dollar and the euro are much more widely used around the world as currencies held in reserve than the British pound.

Even so, European governments can help households and businesses get through an energy crisis, Mr. Vistesen said, but they can’t embark on an open-ended spending spree.

They also need to take account of what is happening in other economies. The richest countries that make up the Group of 7 are essentially part of the same “monetary and fiscal convoy,” said Will Hutton, president of the Academy of Social Sciences. By championing a Thatcher-era blend of steep tax cuts and deregulation, he said, the Truss government strayed too far from the rest of the flotilla and the economic mainstream.

The adherence to 1980s-era trickle-down verities also revealed the risks of sticking with outdated policies in the face of changing circumstances, said Diane Coyle, a ​​public policy professor at the University of Cambridge.

“The situation in 1979 was very different,” Ms. Coyle said. “There were sclerotic high taxes and an overregulated economy, but not anymore.” Today, taxes in Britain are lower, and the economy is less regulated than the average member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a club of 38 major economies.

“The character of the economy has changed,” she said. “Public investment in research and skills are more important.”

In that sense, what was missing from Ms. Truss’s economic plan was as important as what was included. And what Britain is lacking, said Mariana Mazzucato, an economist at University College London, is a visionary public investment program like the trillion-dollar climate and digitalization plans adopted by the European Union or the climate and infrastructure program in the United States.

“If you don’t have a growth plan, an industrial strategy innovation policy,” Ms. Mazzucato said, “then your economy won’t expand.”

Both Ms. Mazzucato and Ms. Coyle emphasized that Britain has some specific economic handicaps that predate the Truss administration, including the 2016 vote to exit the European Union, a stubborn lack of productivity, anemic business investment and lagging research and development.

Still, Ms. Coyle offered some advice that referred pointedly to Ms. Truss. “I think the main lesson is: Don’t shoot yourself in the foot.”

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20221014/page/2/textview

Sólido soporte para los precios de los pisos

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/10/14/63485bfd468aeb1d288b45b0.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/empresas/banca/2022/10/13/634877e6e5fdea83288b459a.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2022/10/13/6347d0c2468aebf7608b45a2.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/10/14/6348911e468aeb1d288b45bf.html

Saludos.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Sólido soporte para los precios de los pisos

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/10/14/63485bfd468aeb1d288b45b0.html

Sólido soporte para los precios de los pisos, y Bomba demográfica sobre las pensiones. En la misma columna. Si ya ni disimulan, coño.

El FMI avista nubarrones en el inmobiliario: la vivienda se podría enfrentar a una "fuerte caída de precios"

¿El FMI? ¿Quiénes son ésos? ¿Qué sabrán ellos de vivienda?


La propaganda patria está otra vez como en 2008-09. Pensando que tienen que tocar como la orquesta del Titanic para que no cunda el pánico. Pero... el reloj hace tic-tac, y más de uno que quiere vender no vende. Y no todos tienen el piso pagao.

[Derby]

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-october-14th-2022/

The United States: Once again, the CPI report surprised to the upside, pointing to entrenched inflation in the US. Here are the contributions.

Equities: Stocks have decoupled from economic surprises (the market is pricing in a recession).

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/opinion/2022/10/14/63482653468aeb03738b468f.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20221014/page/14/textview

Los planes de pensiones pierden un 9% en doce meses

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/10/14/634877e8e5fdea5c558b4678.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/10/13/63482a4d468aeb0f5d8b457c.html

Saludos.