PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2024

[Derby]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/google-tumbles-after-ad-revenue-operating-income-miss

De nada, es el fin de una era, demasiados procesos de largo plazo confluyen como para no pensar que el evento cataclísmico es una conjunción, un alineamiento.

Ahora mismo, en la portada de Bloomberg.com:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/microsoft-revenue-tops-estimates-cloud-growth-disappoints-some

Microsoft Sales Top Estimates; Cloud Growth Disappoints Some

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/alphabet-search-revenue-misses-estimates-shares-fall

Alphabet Shares Fall After Search Revenue Misses Estimate

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-29/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates

Tech Giants Drop in Late Trading After Earnings: Markets Wrap

[asustadísimos]

[¿Qué tal la cacofonía como recurso retórico?:
• Un casero, un usurero sin dinero.
• El ladrillo, el dinerillo del enteradillo.
Se pueden añadir los miniexordios que usa el enemigo:
• «Todo el mundo lo sabe: Un casero, un usurero sin dinero».
• «Es de primero de Económicas: El ladrillo es el dinerillo del enteradillo».
En mi modesta opinión, un lema rompedor antiladrillo debe citar obligatoriamente al dinero o su campo semántico —capital, riqueza, banco, bolsa, deuda,...—.]


[En este trance final de la Transición Estructural, por favor, sean más estrictos de lo normal en no creerse cosas.]


[Lo de 'Junts' apesta a maniobra del PSOE y tongo del PP. Recordemos que gobierna una coalición entre nueve partidos, no solo dos, y que hay que administrarla —máxime gobernando Barcelona con la abstención del PP y viniendo lo que viene a la economía—; en el Congreso, hoy, tras el abandono de la hija de Verstrynge: PSOE (121), Sumar (27), ERC (7), Junts (7), EH Bildu (6), PNV (5), Podemos (4), BNG (1), Coalición Canaria (1). Recordemos, también, que la coalición sigue teniendo mayoría aun con 7 abstenciones: 172 vs. 171.]


[Lo de Zelenski y lo del zelenski patagónico serían astracanadas desternillantes, si no fuera por la cantidad de vidas que se cobran, los hijos de la Gran Bretaña. Ambas fantochadas siniestras, junto con la operación militar especial de Gaza, prueban que Europa no es Occidente (v. Andrei Fursov —Rusia es Europa—). Las dos zelenskiadas están en su fase terminal, pero hasta el rabo todo es toro. En los finales de lo que sea —v. el tardopopularcapitalismo—, siempre se solapa lo viejo con lo nuevo, y cunde la ensoñación gradualista. Pero nunca es gradual ninguna caída de nada —vid. asimetría entre el apego a las ganancias y la aversión a las pérdidas—.]


[A Reino Unido con América le pasa lo mismo que a Rusia con Asia. Tienen el corazón partío. ¡Qué bien hicimos en echarlos de la UE!]

[asustadísimos]

[Nunca olvidemos el art. 281.1 del Código Penal.]

[pianista]

Buena apreciación,,,
Un casero, un tieso usurero
Un casero, un endeudado usurero

[cujo]

Invertir en vivienda , de tontos y viejas.

[sudden and sharp]

 

[JENOFONTE10]

Rescato artículo entre lecturas navideñas pendientes; sintetiza inversión inmobiliaria en familias españolas, con datos y gráficos comparativos de elaboración propia para el S. XXI (2000-actualidad).

Dinámicas de valor: la influencia del sector inmobiliario en la riqueza de los hogares españoles
Diciembre de 2023
Juan Sosa | María Romero Paniagua

Este artículo analiza la influencia del sector inmobiliario en la riqueza de los hogares españoles, destacando su evolución, impacto generacional y el papel que han desempeñado algunos indicadores económicos.
[...]

https://www.empresaglobal.es/EGAFI/contenido/2352627/1601149/dinamicas-de-valor-la-influencia-del-sector-inmobiliario-en-la-riqueza-de-los-hogares-espanoles.html?bol=1816694-202312010858

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

UPS To Cut 12,000 Jobs, Invest In AI For Efficiency
Posted by BeauHD on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @06:30PM from the disappointing-year dept.

sdinfoserv writes:

UPS is cutting 12,000 jobs, or about 2.5% of its global workforce. The cuts mostly effect managers and contractors. Meanwhile, as the company wrestles with struggling profits and sales, workers are to return to the office five days a week and the company is "investing in artificial intelligence (AI) as it pushes to become more efficient," according to the BBC. [The job cuts are expected to reduce costs by $1 billion this year.]

The BBC reports:

The company said that reflected economic weakness in Europe and parts of Asia, as well as disruption in the US, where a strike threatened by staff over the summer led some customers to shift their business to rivals. UPS said it had since won back about 60% of that business and expected modest growth to start to return this year, with average daily volumes flat or up 2% in the US and flat or up 3% internationally. But its forecast was weaker than analysts had expected, sending shares down more than 7%.

It also warned that costs associated with its new contract with the Teamsters union would continue to weigh on the company over the next six months. As part of that deal, the average full-time driver won a pay and benefits package worth about $170,000 a year by the end of the five-year contract in 2028.

Saludos.

[Derby]

Desafiando a la Ley de la Gravedad y la demanda embalsada...todo junto.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-01-31/uk-house-prices-have-barely-moved-in-a-year-says-nationwide

UK House Prices Have Barely Moved in a Year

What’s on the cards for 2024?

UK house prices have stopped falling

As advertised by my colleague Leo in The London Rush this morning, today’s newsletter returns to the hardy perennial topic of UK house prices.

We got the first batch of Nationwide data for the year today. House prices are now virtually flat year-on-year, down just 0.2% on last January, from being down 1.8% in December.

That’s a turn up for the books. As I’ve mentioned many times before, I didn’t expect to get a full-on house price crash, as in one that causes no end of economic damage and sends lots of people into negative equity. But I did expect prices to at least fall a bit, and the 10% being guessed at by many economists this time last year made sense.

So what’s happened? Interest rates have risen sharply since the lows of the post-financial crisis era. That much is unarguable.

The Bank of England released the latest data on mortgage approvals yesterday. The average mortgage rate actually dropped a little, for the first time in over two years. But it still rocked in at 5.28%, compared to a low of 1.51% in November 2021.

So it’s definitely much more expensive to buy a house. And this has been reflected in mortgage approvals. The number of approvals for new house purchases ticked higher to 50,500 in December, from 49,300 in November. But again, that’s still much lower than the pre-pandemic average, as the chart below shows.



So it’s more expensive to borrow to buy a home, and as a result fewer people are taking out mortgages, and those that do, are needing more help from other sources (including the Bank of Mum and Dad). However, because the employment market is strong, there’s no pressure on people to sell their houses particularly, and so prices simply haven’t budged.

Sales Have Been Surprisingly Strong

There’s another interesting quirk here. Yesterday I was talking about how the pandemic and lockdown had disrupted (and are still disrupting) lots of industries. I thought I’d look at what it had done to the housing market.

Every month, HMRC publishes transaction levels for the number of residential properties exchanging hands in deals worth more than £40,000. Unlike some of the house price indices, these figures include cash deals — so it’s not just mortgages.

One interesting feature about the level of annual property sales across the whole of the UK, is that the figure remains remarkably consistent from year to year.

I’m not going to pretend that this is wildly scientific, because the data doesn’t go back that far (it starts in 2005). You also have to remember that we had a property bubble which burst in 2007, and there was then a lengthy period of “convalescence” for the property market.

But if you take calendar year 2014 as the first “normal” year for the housing market post-2008, then the number of transactions per year sticks to a pretty tight range.

The average number of sales per year over the five years from 2014 to 2019 is 1.21 million. The highest number is 1.24 million in 2016 (there was a big stamp duty change which may have pushed a few extra second home sales over the line.) The lowest number was 1.18 million in 2019. So you can see it’s a narrow range.

Then the pandemic breaks out, which of course disrupts the housing market. In 2020, there are just 1.05 million sales. But then there’s a big catch up in 2021, at 1.48 million sales, driven by delayed transactions and also the “race for space.”

In 2022, we get a still-strong 1.26 million (bear in mind that transactions recorded as “done” in 2022 were pretty much all done before the big spike in interest rates). Finally, for 2023 overall, judging by the latest figures (out today), it looks like we’re going to get 1.02 million.

What’s interesting to me is that overall, despite the volatility, the average number of annual sales for the past four years comes in at 1.2 million. In other words, barely different to the pre-pandemic average.

In other words, if interest rates had remained at sub-2% levels, and we’d still had the same outcome, you might have assumed that the real issue in the housing market was not so much that the cost of borrowing had gone up, but simply that a lot of sales had been pulled forward by lockdown (the “race for space”).

You might conclude that the sales decline in 2023 was simply the fallout of returning to “normal.” And that in turn, transaction levels would recover in 2024.

What’s Next for the Housing Market?

However, that’s clearly not the case. Cash sales have made up for some of the collapse in mortgage lending but you wouldn’t think that could continue. So I’d be quite surprised if we get a full recovery of transaction numbers this year.

A lot depends, of course, on what happens to mortgage rates from here. On that front, we’ll get an inkling of what the Bank of England is thinking tomorrow. But you probably don’t need to read governor Andrew Bailey’s mind. He and the rest of the Monetary Policy Committee will likely follow the market’s expectations down just as they followed them higher.

In terms of what happens for the rest of 2024, here are my best guesses for now. This year, the Bank of England rate won’t go above 5.25%, and the next move will be a cut. I also don’t expect it to go below 4%.

Those are the bits I feel pretty confident about (you can never be sure of what the future holds, but I think something major would have to happen for those views to be wrong).

As for what that means for mortgage rates, I suspect that they will probably rattle around current levels, which will be a relief for anyone faced with remortgaging. You can now easily get five-year fixes for below 4%, and two-year fixes below 4.5%.

But all in, when it comes to the housing market, the two big variables this year will be employment and government action. As long as the jobs market remains solid, we won’t get the forced sellers, and so we won’t get big falls in prices.

And if the government decides to chuck caution to the winds and subsidise the housing market in the budget (which in my view would be a huge mistake, but they don’t listen to me), then anyone hoping that prices would fall further is likely to be disappointed.

[newclo]

Casero usurero, no hay empresas ni dinero

[newclo]

Ladrillo caro todos al paro

[Neuromante]

Caseros con ladrillos, sin dinero/riqueza ni chiquillos.

[asustadísimos]

[Lo que dice el artículo que JENOFONTE10 cita en...
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2601.msg224374#msg224374

... es que, como El Ladrillo (revalorización mágica) no es Riqueza, sino Pobreza, España va a pasarlas canutas con la desinmobiliarización que trae el nuevo modelo de capitalismo planificado europeo, nuevo modelo fruto de la combinación de su propio estrangulamiento financiero y la presión del capitalismo-ortopraxia que viene del otro extremo de Eurasia, la República Popular China. Porque allí ha quedado establecido que hoy, con la musculatura financiera que ya hace falta para todo, única y exclusivamente con planificación, y fiscos y monedas fuertes y estables, es como puede hacerse un 'take off' económico de lo que sea. Nada de unos cuantos milloncejos de inversión directa de terceros países, como en los 1950 (vid. Gerschenkron), que es lo que nos quieren hacer creer los que están todo el día con la cantinela impotente de que «hay que atraer inversiones» bajándose los pantalones (en el mejor de los casos solo atraes 'hot money' en cantidades insignificantes para lo que hace falta).

En Europa va a seguir habiendo Estado del Bienestar y democracia cristiana (Libertad positiva, Igualdad de nacimiento y Fraternidad, nada de indiferencia mutua). En Europa no va a haber ni minarquismo ni anarcocapitalismo. Y los experimentos terminan con la caída de Zelenski. Ni van a proliferar carísimos barrios privados y 'countries' con seguridad paramilitar ($ 10.000M por el chalé de la playa, del CEO de Citadel, la cuarta parte de la deuda argentina con el FMI) ni va a haber cárceles panópticas montadas por palestinos (Bukele) admiradores de Amin Al-Husayni para regodeo de judipócritas.

Europa no es Occidente. América es Occidente, como ha quedado demostrado en Ucrania (que es Europa, como Rusia) y en Argentina (que es Occidente, como Ecuador y Panamá, países dolarizados).

El capitalismo popularcapitalista ha fracasado en los dos hemisferios. Y el cambio no va a ser paulatino, sino que un día de estos nos vamos a desayunar con la congoja de que, en efecto, Ucrania es Eurasia, como tú, y que la Bolsa norteamericana es para que jueguen a capitalistitas ellos. Viene la ruina del bancasombrismo europeo sobreexpuesto.

https://cincodias.elpais.com/fondos-y-planes/2024-01-31/10-grandes-gestoras-controlan-dos-de-cada-tres-euros-en-espana.html

España, cuando el vergonzante Rescate-2012, firmó el compromiso de acabar con las Cajas de Ahorros. Había dos gigantes y una constelacioncita de enanas. Uno de los gigantes acabó con un jefe encarcelado y otro quitándose la vida. Para el otro gigante, aquel año, le montaron una 'diada' separatista, que todavía está vigente. Está vigente en su dos versiones, la diada y la odiada.

Ni «Sánchez, Sáánchez, Sááánchez» ni leches. Son 9 partidos en coalición: los nueve que tienen capacidad para embridar el descontento social por el cambio de modelo, no aprovecharse del resentimiento de quienes están apegados al modelo muerto, que se quedan sin su artefacto de dinero-sin-trabajar (la manada contestatario conservadora 'libercarajista'). Hay que dar gracias a Dios por ello y por gozar de la red de seguridad de la UE y no depender de obtener dólares como sea —eso ya es solo cosa de Occidente, es decir, de América, porque incluso el mundo árabe se ha desdolarizado desde este histórico 1.º de enero con el BRICS+—. Ojalá, en Occidente, arrase Trump en el supermartes.

Estamos a punto de vivir en nuestra propia carne la alegría de que el cambio de modelo que hubo en los 1980 no era «para siempre».]

[Saturio]

UPS To Cut 12,000 Jobs, Invest In AI For Efficiency
Posted by BeauHD on Tuesday January 30, 2024 @06:30PM from the disappointing-year dept.

sdinfoserv writes:

UPS is cutting 12,000 jobs, or about 2.5% of its global workforce. The cuts mostly effect managers and contractors. Meanwhile, as the company wrestles with struggling profits and sales, workers are to return to the office five days a week and the company is "investing in artificial intelligence (AI) as it pushes to become more efficient," according to the BBC. [The job cuts are expected to reduce costs by $1 billion this year.]

The BBC reports:

The company said that reflected economic weakness in Europe and parts of Asia, as well as disruption in the US, where a strike threatened by staff over the summer led some customers to shift their business to rivals. UPS said it had since won back about 60% of that business and expected modest growth to start to return this year, with average daily volumes flat or up 2% in the US and flat or up 3% internationally. But its forecast was weaker than analysts had expected, sending shares down more than 7%.

It also warned that costs associated with its new contract with the Teamsters union would continue to weigh on the company over the next six months. As part of that deal, the average full-time driver won a pay and benefits package worth about $170,000 a year by the end of the five-year contract in 2028.

Saludos.

Otros que no venden, ergo despiden.

[Saturio]

Mañana las earnings call de Meta, Amazon y Apple.
Hoy las tres bajando.