PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2023

[asustadísimos]

[Reconocimiento explícito de que la lucha contra inflación-de-IPC no es lo importante:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ip-oykphZ8k
(No doy con la noticia original).]

[Derby]

[Reconocimiento explícito de que la lucha contra inflación-de-IPC no es lo importante:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ip-oykphZ8k
(No doy con la noticia original).]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/daly-premature-fed-done-enough-155550877.html

Daly: Premature to say if Fed has done enough on rates



(Reuters) - San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Thursday said that while recent inflation data is moving in the right direction, more progress is needed before she would feel comfortable the Fed has done enough.

"Whether we raise another time, or hold rates steady for a longer period -- those things are yet to be determined," Daly said in an interview with Yahoo Finance. "It would be premature to project what I think would happen because there's a lot of information coming in between now and our next meeting."

Daly spoke a couple hours after the U.S. Labor Department reported that underlying consumer price inflation moderated in July, with the core CPI, which excludes food and gas prices, rising 4.7% from a year earlier, after a 4.6% increase in June.

The Fed targets 2% inflation.

While goods inflation is receding, and newly signed lease trends signal inflation from housing will also cool, core services inflation excluding housing has so far made little progress, Daly said.

"We do need to see that come back to prepandemic levels if we're going to be confident that we can get to 2% on a sustainable basis," Daly said. "I'm going to need to see some traction in getting there before I feel comfortable that we've done enough."

The Fed raised its policy a quarter of a percentage point last month, to a range of 5.25% to 5%, and policymakers will consider whether to raise rates further when they meet again in September, November and December.

Traders are betting they won't.

Daly before the most recent rate hike had thought a total of two more interest-rate increases would likely be needed before year's end, but she did not reiterate that view on Thursday.

She did note that inflation is still a key worry for people she talks with, and that volatile oil prices and worries about a possible resurgence in housing inflation were important information for her as she considers next steps. She also said the economy is slowing, but that job gains still far exceed what would be needed just to keep up with population growth.

"I was very supportive of the rate hike we took and I'm very supportive of not prematurely projecting what we'll be doing," she said.

She said the conversation is a "long way" from a focus on the possibility of rate cuts, though she expects it will be time for those questions next year.

[Derby]

https://www.aol.com/housing-costs-big-driver-inflation-163908507.html

Housing costs are a big driver of inflation — for now

Housing costs were by far the largest reason behind July's inflation, but that may soon moderate when the measure finally reflects cooling rental prices.

The shelter component of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) — which makes up a third of the overall CPI index — rose 0.4% over the month, the same increase as in June. On a yearly basis, the component increased 7.7% in July.

The shelter index was the largest contributor to overall inflation, which rose 0.2% in July, accounting for an over 90% increase for all items, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report out Thursday.

The index for housing costs, though, doesn't reflect what's happening on the ground now for consumers because the data it uses is a backward-looking indicator rather than a real-time one.

"Though shelter inflation is sticky, the CPI lags market rents by roughly a year. Therefore, we know that the CPI for shelter is set to moderate noticeably through the remainder of this year," Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note following the release.

The shelter index consists of rent prices, which increased 0.4% from June, and what it would cost a homeowner to rent an equivalent residence — known as owners' equivalent rent — which advanced 0.5% over the last month.

"We're clearly past peak inflation on the housing front with shelter cost inflation showing a gentle easing from 8.2% year over year in March to 7.7% year over year in July," EY-Parthenon senior economist Lydia Boussour wrote. "Housing disinflation will pick up momentum in the coming months."

For instance, Zillow reported that the typical asking rent nationwide increased 3.6% over a year ago, "continuing a steady, 17-month-long slowdown in the annual growth rate since hitting a record-high 16.2% in February 2022."

That trend echoes data from RealPage Market Analytics, which showed an even cooler year-over-year rate of rent growth below 1%, the lowest since July 2010 and signaling a potential drop into negative territory over the next months.

A lot of the deceleration has to do with more rental supply coming onto the market.

"We continue to see apartment demand bounding back nicely after a weak 2022. But we’re also seeing a multi-decade high in new supply," Jay Parsons, chief economist for RealPage, wrote in a note. "So supply is doing what it's supposed to do – putting downward pressure on pricing."

Eventually, though, the year-over-year comparisons won't be as favorable, Parsons noted.

"That math starts to change going forward, as rents dropped much more than seasonal norms between September 2022 to December 2022," he wrote. "That suggests, in turn, the year-over-year change numbers should drop off again in August and maybe September before leveling off (to some degree)."

Another potential issue also came up in Zillow's report. The median asking rent climbed by $10, or 0.5%, from June to July.

"This marks the first month of above-average rent growth after eight months of below or at average pace, by seasonal standards," Jeff Tucker, senior economist at Zillow, wrote on Tuesday when the data was published.

"Whether this is just a bump in the road for a market re-calibrating back to normal seasonal appreciation, or an early sign of nascent re-heating, won’t be clear until we see more data in the months to come."

It's also way too early for that increase to factor into CPI, which still needs to capture the slowdown in rental growth over the past year.

New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco forecasts that shelter inflation is set to ease considerably and may even collapse by next year.

"Our baseline forecast suggests year-over-year shelter inflation will continue to slow through late 2024 and may even turn negative by mid-2024," San Francisco Fed economists Augustus Kmetz, Schuyler Louie, and John Mondragon wrote in a note published Monday. "This would represent a sharp turnaround in shelter inflation, with important implications for the behavior of overall inflation."

Researchers in the Fed study used several housing indexes to forecast the shelter component of CPI. The results show that the Fed’s tightening campaign has made its impact.

"The rapid rise in interest rates since early 2022 is likely to have had a significant effect on slowing housing markets, and this slowdown is likely to continue going forward," they wrote.

[asustadísimos]

[Gracias, Derby por encontrar la noticia original sobre cómo la Fed enfría la posible lectura optimista del dato de inflación-de-IPC e incide en su preocupación por la «housing inflation»:
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2594.msg218125#msg218125

La segunda noticia viene repitiéndose desde hace tiempo: que la culpa de la inflación-de-IPC la tiene el «housing», el «shelter».
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2594.msg218126#msg218126

Podemos añadir, primero, el dato:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
«Consumer Price Index (...) The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 90 percent of the increase.»

Y, luego, la puntilla:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/first-american-city-to-tame-inflation-owes-its-success-to-affordable-housing-1.1956752.amp.html
«No place in the US has put inflation in the rearview mirror quite as fast as Minneapolis (...) That’s largely due to a region-wide push to address one of the most intractable issues for both the Fed and American consumers: rising housing costs.»

A la vuelta del verano va a acelerarse el proceso. Todo encaja: Requetecatacrark lunes 02/10/2023.

Trabajo brillante, Derby. Enhorabuena.]

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230811/page/3/textview

La necesaria cautela de los bancos

https://www.eleconomista.es/banca-finanzas/noticias/12403415/08/23/la-banca-espanola-llena-la-hucha-de-provisiones-y-se-prepara-por-si-llega-la-morosidad.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12403130/08/23/delica-homes-se-hace-con-los-ultimos-suelos-de-unifamiliares-y-rompe-el-mercado-en-el-barrio-premium-de-valdebebas.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/12403640/08/23/el-petroleo-ya-no-es-bajista-recupera-mas-del-20-desde-minimos.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/12394913/08/23/las-socimis-aun-ofrecen-un-45-de-rebaja-pese-a-sus-nav.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12402996/08/23/el-bce-insiste-en-que-la-inflacion-seguira-siendo-demasiado-alta-y-no-descarta-mas-alzas-de-tipos.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12402754/08/23/la-pension-media-de-jubilacion-representa-el-645-del-salario-medio-este-ano.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12400926/08/23/el-40-de-los-ceo-no-cree-viable-su-empresa-en-el-mediolargo-plazo.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12401644/08/23/estos-son-los-sueldos-maximos-que-pueden-cobrar-los-alcaldes-en-espana.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12403208/08/23/la-inflacion-complica-el-dilema-de-la-fed-el-ipc-repunta-al-32-en-julio-pero-la-subyacente-se-relaja-bajo-el-5.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/podcasts/noticias/11485215/11/21/La-historia-de-los-hermanos-Hunt-arruinados-teniendo-toda-la-plata-del-mundo.html

Saludos.

[CHOSEN]

Dado que la vivienda no entra en el cálculo del IPC (por algo será...) entiendo que "inflación-de-IPC" es lo mismo o equivalente a BUILT-IN-INFLATION.
Término que se hizo famoso hace tres lustros.

No creo que debamos confiar en autoridades que llevan echando el freno 30 años.
LA SAREB EXISTE
No es un constructo histórico ajeno al devenir de los tiempos.
Saben de sobra lo que hacen.
¿No?