La revuelta de Ucrania

[españavabien]

Y al final todo se resume en un titular que ya no recuerdo dónde lo leí que decía algo así como 'USA y Rusia imponen a UE y Ucrania una solución'. Vamos, que al final la que sale perdiendo es la UE porque ni tenía objetivos, ni sabía qué quería y además demuestra una vez más que es un cascarón sin contenido político alguno. Una especie de crisis del canal de Suez II pero aún más patético. 

Yo siempre he sido (y sigo siendo) partidario de ser aliados de los anglos (sí, soy minoritario en el foro), pero una cosa es ser aliado y otra cosa es ser un vasallo. Pero somos los europeos lo que queremos ser vasallos. Si no tienes una posición de fuerza no puedes negociar nada, ni con USA ni con Rusia ni con nadie.

Es una pena, porque aunque se diga aquello de "para qué quiere ser la UE una potencia", la verdad es que en Europa es donde se han alcanzado los mayores niveles de justicia social y donde se ha logrado tener un sistema más justo.

Ayer estaban echando en la tele china un documental sobre la crisis ucraniana subtitulado en inglés donde hablaban varios académicos chinos y varios puntos eran interesantes:

- Es bueno para China que los USA vuelvan a centrarse en Europa. USA no tiene capacidad de estar en Europa y en el Pacífico. Uno insinuó inclusó una especie de reparto de órbitas de influencia con los USA: Tú te preocupas de Europa y nosotros de Asia. Europa tiene una cultura común a los USA, pero Japón y resto de Asia dejádnoslo a nosotros.

- China, USA y Rusia son las potencias de este siglo. China y Rusia aliadas serían invencibles pero todos los que entrevistaron dijeron bien claro que no tienen los mismos objetivos y destacaron las muchas diferencias (en los conflictos territoriales con India y Vietnam, Rusia está en contra de China).

- Rusia es peligrosa para China y China debe desmarcarse de Rusia. Rusia es un gigante en decadencia que puede desestabilizar el ideal de orden pacífico que busca China.

- La preocupación china en el sureste asiático va más encaminado a mantener abiertas las rutas comerciales vitales para China que en una carrera militar. Desconfian en que USA quiera de verdad mantener el libre comercio internacional y temen por sus conexiones con mar especialmente con África y Oriente Medio de donde provienen muchas de sus materias primas.

[Pagador de facturas ajenas]

Vasallos no, pu****s http://www.elcorreo.com/vizcaya/rc/20140419/mundo/desplegara-tropas-polonia-como-20140419034201.html

CRISIS POLÍTICA EN EUROPA DEL ESTE
EE UU desplegará tropas en Polonia como respuesta a la crisis de Ucrania
La decisión se hará público en los próximos días, según el Washington Post. La noticia habría sido confirmada por el responsable de Defensa polaco en una visita al periódico


Estados Unidos y Polonia anunciarán la semana próxima el despliegue de fuerzas terrestres estadounidenses en territorio polaco como parte de una expansión de la presencia de la OTAN en Europa Central y Oriental, en respuesta a los acontecimientos en Ucrania, según ha adelantado el Washington Post.
El ministro de Defensa de Polonia, Tomasz Siemoniak, confirmó la información al diario en una visita a su redacción tras reunirse con el secretario de Defensa, Chuck Hagel, este jueves. Tras la publicación del diario, el Pentágono no quiso confirmar aún ningún anuncio.
"Como el secretario Hagel ha dejado claro, seguimos buscando formas de tranquilizar a los aliados de la OTAN de nuestro firme compromiso con la defensa colectiva, en virtud del Artículo 5 (del tratado)", dijo al respecto el portavoz del Departamento de Defensa, John Kirby. "Para ello, estamos considerando una serie de medidas adicionales que para reforzar la preparación aérea, marítima y terrestre en Europa. Algunas de esas actividades serán de forma bilateral con países individuales de la OTAN. Algunos serán desarrollados a lo largo de la propia Alianza", agregó Kirby.
Sin embargo, el portavoz insistió en que el Pentágono "no tiene nada específico que anunciar en este momento".
Siemoniak aseguró al Post que la decisión se ha tomado en el plano político, y que los planificadores militares están trabajando en los detalles, que contemplarán una cooperación más intensa en la defensa aérea, fuerzas especiales, ciberdefensa y otras áreas. "Polonia jugará un papel líder en la región, bajo el patrocinio de EEUU", dijo.
Pero el ministro de Defensa también aseguró que cualquier respuesta inmediata de la OTAN a la agresión rusa en Ucrania, si bien es importante, importa menos que un cambio a largo plazo en las posturas de defensa de Europa y Estados Unidos. Según consideró el polaco, Washington tiene que "revirar" su postura de nuevo hacia Europa, después de haber anunciado un "giro" a Asia

[dmar]

- China, USA y Rusia son las potencias de este siglo. China y Rusia aliadas serían invencibles pero todos los que entrevistaron dijeron bien claro que no tienen los mismos objetivos y destacaron las muchas diferencias (en los conflictos territoriales con India y Vietnam, Rusia está en contra de China).

- Rusia es peligrosa para China y China debe desmarcarse de Rusia. Rusia es un gigante en decadencia que puede desestabilizar el ideal de orden pacífico que busca China.

- La preocupación china en el sureste asiático va más encaminado a mantener abiertas las rutas comerciales vitales para China que en una carrera militar. Desconfian en que USA quiera de verdad mantener el libre comercio internacional y temen por sus conexiones con mar especialmente con África y Oriente Medio de donde provienen muchas de sus materias primas.

Yo creo que lo que subyace aquí, además de la enemistad histórica entre Rusia y China, es que los chinos saben que los rusos son los únicos lo suficientemente paranóicos, sin complejos para hacerles frente de manera efectiva si las cosas se ponen feas.  Y con mucho que perder si se andan con melindres.

[sincriterio]

Traigo este enlace del foro de burbuja, porque me ha resultado interesante el concepto de "fuerza blanda", reconozco que lo desconocía.
http://sp.ria.ru/opinion_analysis/20130301/156520756.html

[wanderer]

Traigo este enlace del foro de burbuja, porque me ha resultado interesante el concepto de "fuerza blanda", reconozco que lo desconocía.
http://sp.ria.ru/opinion_analysis/20130301/156520756.html

En realidad el concepto original lo formuló S.Huntington en su Choque de Civilizaciones, dónde lo denominaba Poder Blando (Soft Power), que era en realidad lo más de lo más (más que el poder militar, pues lo precisa, pero lo engloba y lo sobrepasa, pues es un poder del modelo social de quién detenta tal tipo de poder).

[Lego]

[Taliván Hortográfico]

Los encapuchados son por la Semana Santa...

[Starkiller]

Me resulta desesperante la visión buenista de que las guerras son del pasado, que la Historia humana es un continuo ascenso hacia un supuesto auto-perfeccionamiento y que el futuro será pacífico y multipolar y todo muy rosa y lleno de colores y fantasía.

"El fin de la historia"; concepto que fue tremendamente extendido, y alimentado por los pastores anglosajones a sus rebaños durante las dos últimas décadas. En EU ha funcionado peor, pese a que lo han intentado; no obstante, encaja mucho mejor con la moral protestante. La historia ha terminado, y nosotros estamos en la cima porque nuestros valores morales son los mejores. Y, por eso mismo, eso ya no va a cambiar.

En EU continental, donde sigue imperando la moral del esclavo, es más difícil que ese argumento cale; y evidentemente, no lo hace.

Europa es un títere usano porque ha decidido serlo. ¿A qué país debe ir un socio a decirle que se rearme porque su posición es de extrema debilidad?

Sin fuerza de respaldo detrás y sin voluntad de usarla (o al menos de amedrentar) no eres nadie. Y Europa no es nadie ahora mismo.

Por muy "antiguo" que suene, Europa no será nada sin un Bismark. Da igual que quiera seguir con los USA como principal aliado o que quiera aliarse con Rusia. Pero sin fuerza específica propia solo es un payaso que habla de "derechos humanos" y "libertades", igual que los USA, pero con la diferencia de que en Europa parecemos creernos nuestros propios cuentos.

Y sí, Europa y USA van a tener que luchar (económica, ojalá que no militarmente) si no quieren ceder el testigo a los emergentes. Los recursos naturales no dan para todos. O decidimos compartir y ceder poder o mantener el status quo actual.

Totalmente deacuerdo en lo del Bismark; pero para que se abriera una ventana de oportunidad para ese Bismark, haría falta un shock muy grande.  Lo dicho: las cosas tienen que empeorar mucho antes de mejorar.

Por otro lado, no coincido en lo de los recursos naturales; más bien, "Los escasos flujos de capital acumulados por el gran capital y los microrentistas no dan para todos". No es una cuestión de producción, sino de reparto.

Toda eso del mundo multipolar y demás cuentas. ¿Alguién realmente llegó a creyerlo?

Yo sigo apostando porque Alemania se dedique solo a lo económico y pongan al Quai d'Orsay al mando. Eso o que nos coman por los dos lados.

No, si multipolar va a ser. La monopolaridad (O incluso bipolaridad) es meramente transitoria. No es estable. Cuando un imperio reina sobre tan vastas áreas de influencia, se acaba derrumbando desde dentro. Se devora a sí mismo. De nuevo, siempre, siempre, es el reparto de rentas. Pasó con roma, y pasa ahora.

Ciñiéndonos a la IGM y IIGM: La IIGM fue un fruto de la primera. Y en la IGM, precisamente los más beneficiados de que finalmente ocurriera fueron franceses y británicos.

Los alemanes solo tenían que esperar y que su economía y su industria siguieran fortaleciéndose aún más para dominar Europa sin un solo disparo. Lamentablemente para ellos contaban con un aliado que era una bomba de relojería.

Sin embargo se precipitaron y gracias a eso nunca lograron sus objetivos. Bismark jamás hubiera cometido tal locura.

Bueno, eso no lo tengo tan claro. WWI fue el comienzo del fin de la hegemonía británica (Declaración de Balfour) , y la WWII, fue su fin directo (Bretton Woods determina el fin de la libra como moneda reserva).

Y es consecuencia directa de la guerra; el desgaste de la primera guerra mundial es lo que hunde al imperio.

En realidad, en aquel momento, GB y Alemania eran aliados naturales; y si GB hubiera mantenido una política exterior sensata, hubiera cimentado esa alianza; con lo que seguramente se habría evitado, al menos, una guerra mundial, si no dos. la alianza francorusa nunca se hubiera atrevido con alemania, austria y GB a la vez; y seguramente toda la tensión en la zona hubiera terminado con todo el mundo forrando de hostias a los turcos y poniendo orden en los balcanes.

Pero vamos, que todo esto es política-ficción.

Francia, sin embargo, si salió fortalecida. Un país que nunca había llegado a nada (lo mas cercano que tuvo a un imperio fue Napoleón, y le duró dos días; y antes de eso, Carlomagno) quedó como líder indiscutible de la europa continental. Con permiso de Rusia, claro.

Quizás USA desee provocar una escalada. Quizá vea el momento. O no. No estoy en la cabeza de los que mandan.

Pero igual que el comercio se liberalizó y abrió, no sería extraño que se cerrera cuando menos lo esperemos. Ya veremos quién sufre más, si los emergentes o los USA.

A todo esto, Rusia no me parece un "emergente". Es un viejo, como la UE, que teme que su población menguante y unos vecinos cada vez más poderosos (y no precisamente por este lado del mundo) le lleven al desastre. Solo que está intentando reaccionar de forma opuesta a lo que los europeos lo hacemos.

Lo natural sería una alianza UE-rusa.

Si, sería lo natural. Totalmente deacuerdo.

Pero parte del problema esta en lo que dices: "los que mandan". ¿quienes mandan? ¿que intereses tienen? ¿Hasta que punto hay gente que manda en USA, que se beneficiaría mucho con un conflicto aunque perjudicara a su país? Creo que por ahí van muchas cosas.

[wanderer]

De cómo Putin está tranquilamente a verlas venir con el tema gasístico, porque puede:

US Gas Will Never Replace Russian Gas For Europe

    Charif Souki, Cheniere’s chief executive, said that the idea of his company’s exports alone liberating Europe from Russia’s Gazprom was “nonsense” and that only six to eight of 20-plus proposed rival export projects were “real”.
    ...

    The east-west stand-off over Ukraine has sparked a political debate over whether the US should loosen its energy export restrictions so Europeans can buy liquefied natural gas, or LNG, from America’s shale energy boom.

    Asked if Cheniere’s terminal could rescue eastern European countries from their dependence on Russia, Mr Souki said: “It’s flattering to be talked about like this, but it’s all nonsense. It’s so much nonsense that I can’t believe anybody really believes it.”


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-20/us-gas-will-never-replace-russian-gas-europe

[Currobena]

Lo pongo aquí y en el hilo de internet, porque aplica a ambos. Para echarse a temblar.

How Your Cell Phone Threatens Your LIBERTY  Posted on April 21, 2014  by  Martin Armstrong       
In Ukraine, part of the propaganda that it was inspired by a CIA plot covered up the fact that it was truly a grass-roots uprising against corruption. The other aspect that was covered up has been how even Yanukovich employed the technology of the day to try to intimidate the people in Maidan. This is a lesson to everyone for it is the dark side of technology that is the core reason why the NSA is monitoring everything just like any other secret police organization.
We are all familiar with how even Google tracks where you are to tailor advertisements based upon your location. However, this technology in the hands of government can be extremely deadly. In Ukraine, as here, the telephone companies know directly your location by simply having a mobile phone that send a signal so if someone calls you it knows what tower to route the call to find you. Given the civil uprising in Ukraine, the telephone companies reported the location of people to the government so they knew precisely who was in Maidan. Yanukovich then sent SMS text messages to everyone there bluntly stating “you are registered as a participant in a mass disorder” and this actually inspired people to continue knowing if they stopped, they would be jailed and probably tortured. The mobile provider in Ukraine actually belonged to Russians. After the fact, of course, everyone from the police to the mobile provider denies sending this SMS. However, it could not have been sent without the cooperation of the telephone companies.
The importance of this event sending text messages to those in Maidan is quite critical. The experience in Ukraine should be a warning about technology to the rest of the world. If you are going to participate in any type of protest, even such things as the Occupy Wall Street movement, you can count on the government knowing precisely who was there at all times. There is a file on EVERY person even in the USA thanks to the NSA. All they need to do is put in your name and everything will come up including every phone call and text message you have sent. This is NOT speculation – this is the cold harsh reality of what is going on behind the curtain – the NSA is the US version of the East German Stassi. The only possible solution is to never take your mobile phone with you for it does not matter – even turning it off still identifies where you are to a mobile carrier. Clearly, those involved in civil unrest should NEVER take their phone in any country.

The greatest danger facing the Ukrainian people is politics. The people in Ukraine realize what will happen if Russia were to take Kiev shows they are now just a pawn. Many were using the Russian version of Facebook known as Vkontakte for communication. The founder had refused to turn-over to the Russian government lists of all Ukrainians with accounts that were part of groups associated with the Ukrainian Revolution or Maidan. Now, you cannot have a blog in Russia without government approval.

 
However, the ownership of Vkontakte has now changed. As they typically have a sponsor of things like Niki for the Olympics, the common saying in Kiev is that the sponsor of the Ukrainian Revolution in Maidan was the US version of Facebook. This explains a lot.
Turkey has blocked access to things such as Twitter. Social Media has become increasingly more important within society for the younger generation rely upon this technology for communication. This is the real reason behind the NSA tapping into Facebook. This has absolutely nothing to do with terrorism, it is what Harry Reid just called the rangers in Nevada rising up against his corrupt dealings in Nevada – Domestic Terrorists. Effectively, the definition of a “terrorist” today is merely someone who protests against the establishment for whatever reason. You can bet the NSA has a list over participant in the Occupy Wall Street movement precisely as did Yanukovich.
The terrifying situation in Ukraine that has developed is the harsh reality of politics and technology. The people of Maidan are for the most part gone. The temporary government hand-picked by the West is in place and will most likely remain in place with the May 25^th elections following the orders of Christine Lagarde at the IMF. She will drain the Ukrainian people to pay the bankers as she destroyed Cyprus. Her domination of the IMF is seriously destroying the world economy and what she is doing to Ukraine means an economic decline of great hardship going into 2020. She is destroying everything the people sought to change and the

Worse yet, the Ukrainian people themselves have been abandoned and their uprising against corruption has been usurped by the politicians. They have been told behind-the-scenes that if they rise up again against the new government put in place by the West, they will not be supported by the West. This leaves them in a chilling position caught between the West and Russia. Exercise your sovereign right to demand freedom, and the West will not support you. West has installed just another corrupt version of politicians that lean the other direction. Ukraine lost its freedom.
In Europe, the popular notion in France is that the whole Ukrainian event was organized by the USA in order to sell its gas to Europe. Other parts also speak of resentment toward the USA because of the corrupt past events with the invasion of Iraq that they see was for Cheney and oil. This is a sad part that the USA has lost its credibility which is tarnishing the respect for the Ukrainian people. If Putin were to invade and take all of Ukraine, Europe will not lift a finger. The Ukrainian people may have won the battle but lost the war for their freedom.
The propaganda put out by Russia that the people of Maidan are Fascists and Nazis has been totally false. The people of Maidan were neither part of any such movement nor were they orchestrated by the CIA. Of course there are fringe extremists among every movement. Nonetheless, their uprising against corruption was true and totally organized through Facebook telling people to join the movement. Why? They were against Russia for you cannot even protest there – you will be immediately arrested, not unlike the USA that arrests you for walking on the grass of lacking a permit of some kind. If you hold up a sign in Russia, that is jail-time; but if you were merely present, then you are fined and given a government job you must perform for several weeks for free. There were Russians who posted pictures of themselves holding one of these orders to report for work to prove they supported the people in Ukraine. This is what Maidan was all about – a protest against corruption and a demand for freedom. Those who spun stories about CIA plots did these people much harm and it proves the dark side of humanity where people will say anything to get attention. Yanukovich and his sons were installing Russian Oligarch-type system where people had to pay for protection from government and were being denied the right to protest.
We have to realize the tremendous risk that technology has brought. People once could just hop on a plane and leave with a suitcase full of gold to start over in a new land. Those days are long gone. Between metal detectors and desperate tax agents, you cannot simply leave with your own money anymore. Now the events in Ukraine serve as a warning to the rest of the world – cell phones can lead to the loss of your freedom for not merely does Google know where you are, so does your phone-company and we know what the NSA has already done to them. The NSA is not after terrorists by monitoring Facebook. They are after “domestic terrorists” as Harry Reid calls anyone who disagrees with him and his pockets full of other people’s money. Someone should tell him, you can’t take it with you.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/04/21/how-your-cell-phone-threatens-your-liberty/

[tomasjos]

¿Con este ejército pretenden los de Kiev mantener la Ucrania Oriental? 

http://www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/2014-04-21/un-ejercito-mendigo-para-defender-ucrania_119064/

[wanderer]

Éstos al parecer se han tomado lo de

¡Arriba, parias de la Tierra!
¡En pie, famélica legión!
Atruena la razón en marcha:
es el fin de la opresión.
[...]


un poco demasiado al pie de la letra... 

[sincriterio]

Un artículo interesante sobre los diferentes poderes en Usa.
http://www.voltairenet.org/article169349.html

[Currobena]

¿Y si los europeos no quisieran sancionar a Rusia porque está todo pactado?

Dutch fighter jets scrambled Wednesday to intercept a pair of Russian military aircraft that entered their airspace, a fairly routine action that comes amid heightened tensions between Russia and NATO, a Dutch official said. Maj. Wilko Ter Horst said that the military learned around 3:50 p.m. (9:50 a.m. ET) that two Russian TU-95 bombers, known as Bears, had come a half-mile inside its airspace.
A pair of Dutch F-16 military jets were then dispatched to escort the Russian planes and "ensure they (flew) out of our airspace," said Ter Horst, a Dutch military spokesman.
Such a sequence of events isn't uncommon, with the Netherlands military spokesman explaining "this is a national procedure when aircraft infringe (on) national Dutch airspace." He estimated Dutch fighter jets scramble to check out unknown aircraft -- be they from Russia or another country -- about four or five times a year.
   NATO: Pics show Russian military buildup    NATO military chief's warning  "It is not unusual," Ter Horst added. "Sometimes they cross Dutch airspace and sometimes they stay north of Dutch airspace (in the country's so-called area of responsibility)."
In this case, British military aircraft took over from the Dutch in escorting the Russian planes.
A British Defense Ministry spokesman said that planes from his military left from Royal Air Force station Leuchars "to determine the identity of unknown aircraft that approached the NATO Air Policing Area north of Scotland and could not be identified by other means."
These planes were later identified as the Russian military planes. The spokesman stressed that they didn't enter British airspace, nor has any Russian military plane ever done so.
"The Russian military aircraft remained in international airspace at all times, as they are perfectly entitled to do," the spokesman said.
In a separate and "standard" event, Britain's HMS Dragon met up with the Russian ship Vice Admiral Kulakov as it was "transiting past the UK," according to the military spokesman. The British naval destroyer is now "keeping an eye on its transit south," he added.
There was no immediate mention of this story on the English-language versions of at least two Russian state-run media outlets, RT and RIA Novosti.
While British Defense Secretary Philip Hammond said his military is always on alert "to intercept any non-NATO forces," he did not portray these specific incidents as alarming.
"Recent events have increased awareness of Russian military activity," Hammond said. "But we have always routinely intercepted, identified and escorted Russian air and naval assets that transit international airspace and waters within the UK's 'area of interest.'"
Both the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are part of NATO, which has been increasingly at odds with Russia over its activity in and around Ukraine.
The tensions ratcheted up late last year, when demonstrators pushed out Ukraine's president in part due to their anger about his moving away from an alliance with Europe and moving closer to Russia.
A pro-Western government took over in Kiev. Soon after, the Crimean peninsula seceded from Ukraine and became part of Russia.
Since then, Russia has deployed what NATO estimates to be 40,000 troops near its border with Ukraine, which has made other countries in the area nervous.
In an interview Wednesday with RT, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia would "certainly respond" if its interests were attacked in Ukraine.
"Russian citizens being attacked is an attack against the Russian Federation," Lavrov said.

Cazas de la OTAN interceptan a dos bombarderos rusos en el cielo de Holanda. ¿Cuánto creéis que tardará en bajar el euro y subir el dólar?
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/23/world/europe/russian-bombers-intercepted/

[Currobena]

A cambio, seguro que los bancos europeos le compran bonos a Rusia...después de que se los queden los fondos de pensiones rusos. ¿Os acordáis de Polonia y Argentina?

Putin Pushes Untradeable Notes as Bond Sales Fail: Russia Credit   By Vladimir Kuznetsov - Mar 28, 2014   Russia is selling notes directly to pension funds and banks for the first time in 1 1/2 years, sidestepping the bond market after four failed auctions since President Vladimir Putin’s incursion into Crimea.
The Finance Ministry is offering 100 billion rubles ($2.8 billion) of non-tradeable securities today, with half due March 2015 at a 7.73 percent yield and the rest maturing in February 2016 at 8.25 percent, it said on its website on March 26. The yield on government ruble bonds due January 2016 rose 190 basis points since the start of the year and was at 8.25 percent the day before the sale was announced.
By offering almost three times the amount auctioned this year in one day, Russia may be signaling it doesn’t foresee investor sentiment being restored anytime soon, according to BCS Financial Group and GHP Group. Russian borrowing costs rose to a record after Putin’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula sparked the worst standoff with the U.S. since the Cold War.
“The Finance Ministry doesn’t want to scare off any demand that might still be out there,” Fedor Bizikov, a money manager at GHP Group in Moscow, said by phone from Moscow yesterday. “It’s saying: ‘I’m ready to borrow, but I’m not going to do it on the market.’ It can’t count on foreigners and locals won’t stump up the cash without a hefty premium.”
The Finance Ministry didn’t respond to requests for comment.
 Axing Auctions  Russia has scrapped seven bond auctions this year, citing “unfavorable” market conditions. Investors fled emerging-market assets in January as the Federal Reserve reduced its bond-buying program. They continued their exodus from Russian markets as the crisis in Ukraine deepened, leading Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings to cut the country’s credit outlook to negative this month.
Outflows were probably near $70 billion in the first three months, Deputy Economy Minister Andrey Klepach told reporters on March 24. That compares with $63 billion in all of 2013.
The government may refrain from selling $7 billion in Eurobonds and pare its 825 billion-ruble domestic-bond target, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said March 21. The ministry has borrowed 37 billion rubles since the start of the year, data on its website show.
 ‘Defensive’ Mode  “They don’t want to pressure the market by increasing the cost of funding for the whole economy,” Dmitry Dudkin, head of fixed-income research at UralSib Capital in Moscow, said in e-mailed comments yesterday. The untradeable notes allow them “to cover all refinancing needs for the rest of the year,” he said.
Russia needs to redeem 324 billion rubles of debt this year, the Finance Ministry said in a statement March 18. With the cash from the auctions that did go ahead and about 174 billion rubles tentatively earmarked for the country’s sovereign wealth fund, the non-market placement will cover the balance, Dudkin said.
When the Finance Ministry placed GSO bonds in 2012 it was criticized for raising funds off-market, Alexander Kudrin, head of fixed-income research at Sberbank CIB, said in an e-mailed note.
The decision to suspend the sales allowed VEB, the development bank, which manages money for the State Pension Fund, to boost investments into corporate bonds, he said. That included infrastructure bonds issued by state-controlled companies for long-term projects, according to Kudrin.
 Budget Help  The Finance Ministry conducted its last GSO sale in October 2012, placing 24 billion rubles in 13-year notes at an 8.18 percent yield, according to a statement on its website.
The return to the GSO market is a “defensive” move in volatile market conditions, Kudrin said. “The ministry is apparently unable to place OFZs at acceptable yields.”
The ruble slid 0.3 percent against the dollar, taking its retreat this year to 7.9 percent, the worst performance among emerging markets tracked by Bloomberg after Argentina’s peso.
The currency’s weakness has helped Russia boost local-currency revenue from exports. The country ran a budget surplus of 30.5 billion rubles in January and February, Finance Ministry data show.
Oil and natural gas contribute about half of the country’s budget proceeds. Brent crude added 0.4 percent to $108.27 per barrel, the highest level in almost two weeks.
The yield on the Russian government’s April 2020 dollar bond fell 23 basis points, or 0.23 percentage point, to 4.21 percent as of 6:14 p.m. in Moscow. The extra yield on Russia’s dollar debt over Treasuries narrowed four basis points to 294, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes.
“Essentially they decided to borrow through GSOs, despite claiming they don’t need to borrow,” Yulia Safarbakova, an analyst at BCS Financial Group in Moscow, said by e-mail. “So now they can continue canceling auctions and resort to relatively non-market deals.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-03-27/putin-pushes-untradeable-notes-as-bond-sales-fail-russia-credit.html