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http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/viewing-russia-inside#axzz3M5boFDQUEl autor (el jefazo de Stratfor) resume sus impresones tras un viaje a Rusia en el que ha tenido la oportunidad de hablar de cuestiones geopolíticas calientes con diversos interlocutores, gubernamentales o privados. Interesante, aunque tampoco dice nada que no se haya planteado en este hilo. Tres puntos clave:- Que son de otra pasta. La capacidad de encaje de esa gente es de otro planeta comparada con el lorealismo occidental. Las sanciones son inútiles.- Que Ucrania para los rusos no es "geopolítica", es asunto vecinal, por no decir interno.- El objetivo secular de USA es que no surja un hegemón europeo. El de Rusia es defenderse de las invasiones occidentales recidivantes.( a mi esto último no me acaba de llenar, la verdad, sobre todo por la parte de Rusia. No sólo contienen al usurero por el oeste, también al moro por el sur y a chino por el sureste. Desde hace siglos. Él mismo dice que "pese a ser un país acostumbrado a la pobreza desde los zares, han ganado todas las guerras que tenían que ganar y tener vidas dignas de ser vividas".
Lo que está sucediendo es que nos están sometiendo a un proceso de *saqueo* CALCADO, a los procesos neoliberales que practicaron con latinoamérica con la excusa de la "crisis de la deuda" desde los 70, 80 y 90
Estoy sinceramente sorprendido por la histeria y el resentimiento contra el gobierno en relación con la devaluación del rublo. ¿Es tan difícil mirar más de un mes en el futuro? Todo se hace correctamente y con sabiduría, así que todo va a pitar bien, chicos... "
America on a War Footing: Three Members of Congress Just Reignited the Cold War While No One Was LookingLate Thursday night, the House of Representatives unanimously passed a far-reaching Russia sanctions bill, a hydra-headed incubator of poisonous conflict. The second provocative anti-Russian legislation in a week, it further polarizes our relations with Russia, helping to cement a Russia-China alliance against Western hegemony, and undermines long-term America’s financial and physical security by handing the national treasury over to war profiteers.Here’s how the House’s touted “unanimity” was achieved: Under a parliamentary motion termed “unanimous consent,” legislative rules can be suspended and any bill can be called up. If any member of Congress objects, the motion is blocked and the bill dies.At 10:23:54 p.m. on Thursday, a member rose to ask “unanimous consent” for four committees to be relieved of a Russia sanctions bill. At this point the motion, and the legislation, could have been blocked by a single member who would say “I object.” No one objected, because no one was watching for last-minute bills to be slipped through.Most of the House and the media had emptied out of the chambers after passage of the $1.1 trillion government spending package.The Congressional Record will show only three of 425 members were present on the floor to consider the sanctions bill. Two of the three feigned objection, creating the legislative equivalent of a ‘time out.’ They entered a few words of support, withdrew their “objections” and the clock resumed.According to the clerk’s records, once the bill was considered under unanimous consent, it was passed, at 10:23:55 p.m., without objection, in one recorded, time-stamped second, unanimously.Then the House adjourned.I discovered, in my 16 years in Congress, that many members seldom read the legislation on which they vote. On Oct. 24, 2001, House committees spent long hours debating the Patriot Act. At the last minute, the old bill was swapped out for a version with draconian provisions. I voted against that version of the Patriot Act, because I read it. The legislative process requires attention.Legislation brought before Congress under “unanimous consent” is not read by most members simply because copies of the bill are generally not available. During the closing sessions of Congress I would often camp out in the House chamber, near the clerk’s desk, prepared to say “I object” when something of consequence appeared out of the blue. Dec. 11, 2014, is one of the few times I regret not being in Congress to have the ability to oversee the process.The Russia Sanctions bill that passed “unanimously,” with no scheduled debate, at 10:23:55 p.m. on Dec. 11, 2014, includes:1. Sanctions of Russia’s energy industry, including Rosoboronexport and Gazprom.2. Sanctions of Russia’s defense industry, with respect to arms sales to Syria.3. Broad sanctions on Russians’ banking and investments.4. Provisions for privatization of Ukrainian infrastructure, electricity, oil, gas and renewables, with the help of the World Bank and USAID.5. Fifty million dollars to assist in a corporate takeover of Ukraine’s oil and gas sectors.6. Three hundred and fifty million dollars for military assistance to Ukraine, including anti-tank, anti-armor, optical, and guidance and control equipment, as well as drones.7. Thirty million dollars for an intensive radio, television and Internet propaganda campaign throughout the countries of the former Soviet Union.8. Twenty million dollars for “democratic organizing” in Ukraine.9. Sixty million dollars, spent through groups like the National Endowment for Democracy, “to improve democratic governance, and transparency, accountability [and] rule of law” in Russia. What brilliant hyperbole to pass such a provision the same week the Senate’s CIA torture report was released.10. An unverified declaration that Russia has violated the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, is a nuclear “threat to the United States” and should be held “accountable.”11. A path for the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty, which went into force in 1988. The implications of this are immense. An entire series of arms agreements are at risk of unraveling. It may not be long before NATO pushes its newest client state, Ukraine, to abrogate the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Ukraine signed when it gave up its nuclear weapons, and establish a renewed nuclear missile capability, 300 miles from Moscow.12. A demand that Russia verifiably dismantle “any ground launched cruise missiles or ballistic missiles with a range of between 500 and 5,500 kilometers …”—i.e., 300 and 3,300 miles.Read the legislation, which Congress apparently didn’t.As reported on GlobalSecurity.org, earlier that same day in Kiev, the Ukrainian parliament approved a security plan that will:1. Declare that Ukraine should become a “military state.”2. Reallocate more of its approved 2014 budget for military purposes.3. Put all military operating units on alert.4. Mobilize military and national guard units.5. Increase military spending in Ukraine from 1 percent of GDP to 5 percent, increasing military spending by $3 billion over the next few years.6. Join NATO and switch to NATO military standards.Under the guise of democratizing, the West stripped Ukraine of its sovereignty with a U.S.-backed coup, employed it as a foil to advance NATO to the Russian border and reignited the Cold War, complete with another nuclear showdown.The people of Ukraine will be less free, as their country becomes a “military state,” goes into hock to international banks, faces structural readjustments, privatization of its public assets, decline of social services, higher prices and an even more severe decline in its standard of living.In its dealings with the European Union, Ukraine could not even get concessions for its citizens to find work throughout Europe. The West does not care about Ukraine, or its people, except for using them to seize a strategic advantage against Russia in the geopolitical game of nations.Once, with the help of the West, Ukraine fully weighs in as a “military state” and joins the NATO gun club, its annual defense budget will be around $3 billion, compared with the current defense budget of Russia, which is over $70 billion.Each Western incitement creates a Russian response, which is then given as further proof that the West must prepare for the very conflict it has created, war as a self-fulfilling prophecy.That the recent Russia sanctions bill was advanced, “unanimously,” without debate in the House, portends that our nation is sleepwalking through the graveyards of history, toward an abyss where controlling factors reside in the realm of chance, what Thomas Hardy termed “crass casualty.” Such are the perils of unanimity.http://www.globalresearch.ca/america-on-a-war-footing-three-members-of-congress-just-reignited-the-cold-war-while-no-one-was-looking/5420146Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014 (Enrolled Bill [Final as Passed Both House and Senate] - ENR)http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/D?c113:2:./temp/~c113M6AP2G::
China Prepares To Bailout RussiaEarlier this evening China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange's (SAFE) Wang Yungui noted "the impact of the Russian Ruble depreciation was unclear yet, and, as Bloomberg reported, "SAFE is closely watching Ruble's depreciation and encouraging companies to hedge Ruble risks." His comments also echoed the ongoing FX reform agenda aimed at increasing Yuan flexibility which The South China Morning Post then hinted in a story entitled "Russia may seek China help to deal with crisis," which which noted that Russia could fall back on its 150 billion yuan ($24 billion) currency swap agreement with China if the ruble continues to plunge, that was signed in October. Furthermore, two bankers close to the PBOC reportedly said the swap-line was meant to reduce the role of the US dollar if China and Russia need to help each other overcome a liquidity squeeze.As Bloomberg reported, earlier in the evening, China's Wang Yungui noted*CHINA IS CLOSELY WATCHING RUBLE'S DEPRECIATION: SAFE'S WANG*CHINA ENCOURAGES COS. TO HEDGE RUBLE RISKS, SAFE'S WANG SAYS*REAL IMPACT OF RUBLE DEPRECIATION UNCLEAR YET, SAFE'S WANG SAYSAdding that China plans sweeping reforms to promote FX flexibility.And then The South China Morning Post hints,Russia could fall back on its 150 billion yuan (HK$189.8 billion) currency swap agreement with China if the rouble continues to plunge. If the swap deal is activated for this purpose, it would mark the first time China is called upon to use its currency to bail out another currency in crisis. The deal was signed by the two central banks in October, when Premier Li Keqiang visited Russia."Russia badly needs liquidity support and the swap line could be an ideal tool," said Bank of Communications chief economist Lian Ping.The swap allows the central banks to directly buy yuan and rouble in the two currencies, rather than via the US dollar.Two bankers close to the People's Bank of China said it was meant to reduce the role of the US dollar if China and Russia need to help each other overcome a liquidity squeeze.China has currency swap deals with more than 20 monetary authorities around the world. Swaps are generally used to settle trade."The yuan-rouble swap deal was not just a financial matter," said Wang Feng, chairman of Shanghai-based private equity group Yinshu Capital. "It has political implications as it is a sign of mutual trust."The rouble has lost more than 50 per cent against the US dollar this year, pushing Russia to the brink of a currency crisis, though measures announced by the central bank helped it recover some ground yesterday.Li Lifan, a researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said the swap would not be enough for Russia even if it is used in its entirety. "The PBOC might agree to extend something like 15 billion yuan initially as a way of showing China's commitment to Russia."* * *As we discussed in October when the swap deal was signed,...as if to assure all involved parties that there will be enough capital support on both sides, the PBOC released a surprising announcement that the central banks of China and Russia signed a 3-year, 150 billion yuan bilateral local-currency swap deal today, according to a statement posted on PBOC website. Deal can be expanded if both parties agree, statement says. Deal aims to make bilateral trade and direct investment more convenient and promote economic development in 2 nations. To be sure, some such as Bloomberg, are skeptical that the unprecedented pivot by Russia toward China as it shuns the west, will merely harm the Kremlin. Others, however, wonder: who will be left standing: Europe, with its chronic deficit of energy and reliance on Russia; or Russia, a country overflowing with natural resources, whose economy is currently underoing a dramatic and painful shift, as it scrambles to dissolve all linkages to the Petrodollar and face the Gas-O-Yuan?Perhaps it is not such a surprise as members take advantage of The BRICS Bank's $100 Billion reserve...(BRICS Announce $100 Billion Reserve To Bypass Fed, Developed World Central Bankshttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-15/brics-announce-100-billion-reserve-bypass-fed-developed-world-central-banks)The punchline, however, is that using bilateral swaps, the BRICS are effectively disintermediating themselves from a Fed and other "developed world" central-bank dominated world and will provide their own funding.We are pleased to announce the signing of the Treaty for the establishment of the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) with an initial size of US$ 100 billion. This arrangement will have a positive precautionary effect, help countries forestall short-term liquidity pressures, promote further BRICS cooperation, strengthen the global financial safety net and complement existing international arrangements.... The Agreement is a framework for the provision of liquidity through currency swaps in response to actual or potential short-term balance of payments pressures. Incidentally, the role of the dollar in such a world is, well, nil.For those who have forgotten who the BRICS are, aside from a droll acronym by a former Goldman banker, here is a reminder of the countries that make up 3 billion in population.http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/china-prepares-bailout-russia