PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Verano 2022

[pollo]

https://www.ft.com/content/dfb90cca-cd02-4add-8378-86fddae2aefc

Europe is becoming a global political power

The crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered new forms of co-operation among EU member states

The writer is France’s minister of state for Europe

(...) We are not naive: we know that the EU must reform to be able to operate efficiently and effectively in a wider Europe. This concerns institutional governance, as well as decision making, such as reconsidering the unanimity rule and qualified majority voting in certain areas of common European security policy, or in tax matters.

This is the aim of the European Political Community proposed by Macron: to consolidate European stability through co-operation on matters of foreign policy and security, and interconnections in trade, research and education.

Jean Monnet, one of the original architects of European integration, famously said: “Europe will be forged in crises, and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises.” Russia’s assault on Ukraine and European values has made the transformation of Europe into a global political power an urgent collective priority for us all.

Todo al módico precio de no tener energía.  Un plan sin fisuras.

[Benzino Napaloni]

https://www.ft.com/content/dfb90cca-cd02-4add-8378-86fddae2aefc

Europe is becoming a global political power

The crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered new forms of co-operation among EU member states

The writer is France’s minister of state for Europe

(...) We are not naive: we know that the EU must reform to be able to operate efficiently and effectively in a wider Europe. This concerns institutional governance, as well as decision making, such as reconsidering the unanimity rule and qualified majority voting in certain areas of common European security policy, or in tax matters.

This is the aim of the European Political Community proposed by Macron: to consolidate European stability through co-operation on matters of foreign policy and security, and interconnections in trade, research and education.

Jean Monnet, one of the original architects of European integration, famously said: “Europe will be forged in crises, and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises.” Russia’s assault on Ukraine and European values has made the transformation of Europe into a global political power an urgent collective priority for us all.

Todo al módico precio de no tener energía.  Un plan sin fisuras.

Bueno, si alguien ha tenido históricamente la capacidad de levantarse una y otra vez, es Occidente.

Claro que antes nos tendremos que quitar la tontería del woke y aprender la lección que no aprendimos entera en los 70. No podemos depender de energía barata si no somos nuestro propio proveedor. Lo del Midcat y el yacimiento que dicen que han encontrado en Chipre puede servir para ganar tiempo, pero no más.

[sudden and sharp]

https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/sociedad/2022/08/19/teoria-volcanica-sobre-calor-extremo-2022/00031660922239332913833.htm

La teoría volcánica sobre el calor extremo del 2022

Los efectos de la erupción del Tonga el pasado febrero podrían estar favoreciendo que aumente la temperatura global
21 ago 2022 . Actualizado a las 09:31 h.

Es de sobra conocido que las grandes erupciones volcánicas tienen un impacto brutal en el sistema climático. La historia está poblada de casos de cómo afectaron a la vida en la Tierra desde sus inicios. También a los seres humanos. Hay una relación, por ejemplo, entre la explosión del volcán islandés Laki en 1783 y la Revolución Francesa que ocurrió solo seis años después.

Las partículas que se liberan tras una erupción violenta llegan hasta la estratosfera. Desde ahí pueden recorrer todo el planeta y crear una capa que bloquea la radiación solar. Como consecuencia se produce un enfriamiento. Sin embargo, dependiendo de la naturaleza de la carga que expulse el efecto puede ser justo el contrario.

Un artículo publicado en la revista Journal of Geophysical Research sostiene que la violenta explosión del volcán Tonga ocurrida el 15 de enero del 2022 emitió una enorme cantidad de vapor de agua. Mientras que la liberación de otros gases como el dióxido de azufre fue comparable a erupciones anteriores, la magnitud de la inyección de vapor de agua no tiene precedentes en la era de los satélites. Envió alrededor de 146 teragramos (1 teragramo equivale a un billón de gramos) de vapor de agua a la estratosfera, lo que supone el 10 % del agua ya presente en esa capa atmosférica. Es cuatro veces la cantidad de vapor de agua que los científicos estiman que la erupción del Monte Pinatubo de 1991 en Filipinas arrojó a la estratosfera. «Nunca habíamos visto algo así», confirma Luis Millán, científico del Laboratorio de Propulsión a Chorro de la NASA y autor del artículo.

La erupción del Tonga no solo fue una de las más violentas de la historia reciente, también fue anómala. La cuestión es que ocho meses después, la concentración de vapor de agua en la atmósfera sigue muy alta, el doble de los valores normales, un gas que al igual que el dióxido de carbono y el metano es de efecto invernadero.

La propia NASA asegura que la concentración actual es lo suficientemente importante como para generar un calentamiento global de carácter temporal. Y dado que las temperaturas de los últimos meses están siendo muy altas, no solo en Europa, sino en todo el hemisferio norte, se piensa que puede haber una influencia. Los efectos podrían permanecer durante los próximos cinco años.

Mira que hay que ser gañan para no convertir 146 teragramos en 146 hectómetros cúbicos, y compararlo con algún embalse pequeñito, como por ejemplo https://www.embalses.net/pantano-1237-eume.html. En fin.

¿Gañán?






[ Adeu. ]

[sudden and sharp]

 

[Cadavre Exquis]

El planeta inmobiliario se calienta una vez más, aunque de forma inadvertida

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2022/08/24/economia/1661360999_496468.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2022/08/24/opinion/1661336831_658734.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2022/08/24/companias/1661344525_945050.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2022/08/24/opinion/1661357912_015652.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/cinco-dias/20220825/281930251783813

Podemos exige regular los precios del alquiler antes del Presupuesto

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2022/08/24/fortunas/1661354238_557637.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

¿Por qué las empresas canibalizan sus propias acciones?
En 2021, las compañías del índice S&P 500 destinaron más de 880.000 millones de dólares a recomprar sus propias acciones. En los últimos 10 años esa práctica se eleva hasta los 7,7 billones de dólares, seis veces el PIB de España. Pero, ¿por qué las empresas recompran masivamente sus propios títulos?

P. M. | 18 ago 2022

¿Por qué las empresas canibalizan sus propias acciones? - Si lo hubiera sabido

En Estados Unidos, unos analistas se limitan a definir el fenómeno como “tendencia financiera”. Para otros, se trata de algo más que un recurso intencionado. El caso es que la recompra de acciones se ha convertido en una de las prácticas más debatidas entre los políticos y expertos en aquel país. Incluso, la Administración Biden está alentando al Congreso a que castigue fiscalmente esta operación corporativa, que en los últimos años bate récord tras récord.

Tan sólo en 2021 las empresas que integran el Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500, el índice que aglutina a las 500 mayores corporaciones cotizadas en Estados Unidos, destinaron más de 880.000 millones de dólares a recomprar sus propias acciones. Esto supuso un 69,6% más que el año anterior y, desde luego, no se trata de una excepción: la situación en el resto de grandes mercados internacionales es muy similar, Las empresas europeas y asiáticas se apuntan con frecuencia a esta tendencia.

Los críticos esgrimen, sobre todo, dos líneas argumentales:

• Las empresas deberían invertir en sus negocios, empleados y balances en lugar de dilapidar tantos recursos en especular con sus propios títulos.
• Los planes de recompra muchas veces se aprueban pensando más en inflar el precio de las acciones para que los ejecutivos puedan cobrar sus stock options (“opciones sobre acciones”, una forma de remunerar a los empleados de una empresa y, en especial, a los directivos) que en el interés estratégico de la compañía.

Con todo, esta práctica se ha popularizado en todo el planeta. Según el grupo Goldman Sachs, puede superar en 2022 el billón de dólares de inversión tan solo entre las compañías del S&P 500. La recompra tiene dos grandes ventajas:

• Reduce el número de títulos en circulación, lo que hace que el beneficio por acción crezca mucho más que el beneficio neto de la propia empresa. Por ejemplo, en el caso de la tecnológica Apple ‒la compañía que más recursos ha invertido en esta práctica en todo el mundo‒ mientras que su beneficio neto ha crecido un 107% en los últimos cinco años, su beneficio por acción lo ha hecho casi el doble, un 196%.
• A diferencia de lo que ocurre con los dividendos, la recompra de acciones permite retribuir a los accionistas elevando el peso de su participación en la empresa sin que tengan que pagar impuestos hasta que no liquiden las acciones. En ese caso, tributarán si obtienen plusvalía entre la compra y la venta de los títulos.
  

Si quieres saber más sobre este asunto, las implicaciones que tiene y por qué las recompras están batiendo todos los récords no te pierdas el último vídeo de Si lo Hubiera Sabido, el canal de información financiera de Mutuactivos.

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/25/business/europe-electricity-prices.html

Why Europe’s Electricity Prices Are Soaring

Reverberations from the war in Ukraine have “distorted” the market for natural gas, forcing energy prices up.
(...)
Why do the prices of natural gas and electricity keep climbing?

Driving the prices is a fear that Europe will run out of gas this winter. Russia has slashed gas flows to Germany and other countries. Even before the coming three-day shutdown, Nord Stream 1, a key conduit of fuel to Germany, has been flowing at only 20 percent of capacity. These cutbacks are forcing gas providers to buy gas on the spot market at higher and volatile prices than under longer-term Gazprom contracts.

In many countries, gas and electric power prices are closely intertwined, a relationship that has added to Europe’s woes. Although there are several ways to generate electricity — such as coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind and solar — the price of natural gas is hugely influential in setting electricity prices because gas-burning generators are most often paid to come into service when a power grid like Britain’s needs more electricity.

“Natural gas is the driver for the European electricity price,” said Iain Conn, a former chief executive of Centrica, a large British utility.

This relationship makes Europe more vulnerable to Russia’s energy weapon. Unlike the United States, which has an ample surplus of natural gas to export, thanks to shale drilling, Europe needs to import the bulk of its gas, with Russia traditionally supplying around one third. Well before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, European gas and power prices rose over supply concerns.

“When natural gas supplies get tight, the electricity market gets extremely exercised,” said Mr. Conn, who is also a former senior executive of BP, the energy giant.

Other factors are pushing up power prices, including low river levels that are impeding shipments of fuel to coal-fired plants that Germany and other governments want to fire up to replace gas.

(...) Why aren’t wind and solar power helping to keep prices down?

Analysts say that so far these technologies are only helping marginally to lower prices, because in wholesale electricity markets natural gas remains the key determinant in power prices. Chris Matson of LCP estimated that in 2021 Britain’s power prices were determined by gas more than 90 percent of the time, even though the fuel only accounted for about 40 percent of total generation.

Some analysts say that it is time to redesign power markets to reflect the growing amount of wind and solar energy on European electrical grids. Unlike gas and coal generators, whose costs are largely determined by fuel prices, these renewable technologies have very low and steady operating costs. Their fuel is essentially free.

“What we need is a better market design that is less reliant on natural gas power plants to set the prices,” said Rahmat Poudineh, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “It is likely that we can have a situation where electricity prices are lower than this,” he added.

Britain and other countries are considering revamping their energy markets. It is unlikely, though, that fundamental changes can be pushed through in time to help this winter.

[el malo]

El planeta inmobiliario se calienta una vez más, aunque de forma inadvertida

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2022/08/24/economia/1661360999_496468.html

Saludos.

"precios preburbuja"

PREburbuja

 

Y duermen tan tranquilos los periodistas

[Derby]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536896-deflationary-inflationary-forces-occurring-now

A Look At The Deflationary And Inflationary Forces Occurring Now

*Monetary inflation forces are being subdued with rate hikes.
*Other forces that contribute to inflation are very mixed currently.
*Overall, the rate of inflation will likely remain well above workers' weekly paychecks.

It's a rather funny picture, but it's the state of the world today. Incomes are simply not keeping up with the rate of inflation and we've all been getting sticker shocks on all fronts over the past 1.5 years now.

There has been too much emphasis I believe, on the inflation rate alone and not near enough emphasis on what really matters and that is the difference between inflation and the rate of rise in your weekly paycheck.

Normally, your weekly earnings rise faster than inflation. This is generally due to gains in productivity or aggregate input cost reduction.

Here is a chart showing the rate of change in average weekly earnings minus the rate of inflation going back to 2007:



We're now running on 16 months of negative real weekly earnings. The month of July, the difference between inflation and weekly earnings was -3.87%.

To keep the same level of consumption vs. the previous year, one would have to either dip into savings or go into debt. The other option is to simply forgo the same level of consumption which is the most likely and is the best reason as to why we have now had 2 quarters of negative real GDP growth and will likely continue to have negative real GDP growth in the quarters ahead.

The Fed Raising Rates

I hold the view that the entire point of the Fed raising or lowering rates is to either entice more borrowing to get monetary inflation up or to stifle borrowing to lower the rate of monetary inflation. Of course, shooting for their target of 2% inflation.

When you get a raise at work, where do you suppose the money came from to pay for it? Same goes for when same-store sales rise and profits rise. The money that paid for it was the increase in aggregate debt per capita.

This image below showing the rate of change in aggregate debt per capita and wage and salary disbursements gives some justice to this idea.



There was a large increase in the rate of debt growth per capita in the 1980s and again in the 2000s. This can simply be explained from excessive investment capital. The 1980s, it was leveraged buyouts, think junk bonds. Then, in the 2000s, it was the real estate bubble, think Mortgage Backed Securities. Otherwise, there is a good relationship between the rate of debt growth to the rate of which wage and salary disbursements are made.

I'm making this point to suggest that one of the more blatant consequences of the Fed tightening and raising rates today will be a slower rate of wage and salary disbursements resulting in both lower wage gains as well as perhaps layoffs or a reduction in the labor force.

Monetary policy can be looked at as to what helps pay for wage gains, rising sales, and rising profits.

Inflation And Its Deflationary And Inflationary Forces

With all due respect for Milton Friedman, his quote about inflation being a monetary phenomenon is only half right in my opinion. I got my start in my career in manufacturing and got a very good lesson about both the cost sheet and the concepts of productivity and efficiency. We were expected to always be able to reduce the cost of our product 1% - 2% per year by our customers simply by improving the cost sheet by 4% - 6% per year. With a mix of technology improvements like new machines and/or software, new improved methods of operation and new sources of materials and labor from cheaper labor offshore, we could meet those goals of reducing the cost to produce the product we were producing. All in all, these methods were deflationary forces contributing to growing the economy and improving living standards. This business eventually went bankrupt due to not being able to compete with China as their labor costs were substantially lower and it was impossible to compete. China now making the product the company I once worked for made was also a deflationary force.

To understand inflation, we have to start with the monetary component which is the rate of aggregate debt growth per capita. The chart below compares that to the rate of inflation:



The inflation rate is almost always lower than the debt growth per capita or Milton Friedman's monetary phenomenon. This is because there are what I call deflationary forces that result in reducing costs by improving productivity. One such example is those industrial engineers in manufacturing improving methods and such as one such deflationary force.

If I were to add the rate of productivity or output per hour, to the rate of inflation, the end result will be far closer to the rate of debt growth per capita.



Again, the exception is the 1980s and again the 2000s. Both have a good reason for this and that is a substantial deflationary force allowing great amounts of new debt to be issued and not be inflationary. In the 1980s, it would be a combination of a very strong dollar coupled with free-market supply side economic policy that helped reduce overall inflation.

In the 2000s, another substantial deflationary force came to play and that was China. China entering the World Trade Organization in 2001 opened the floodgates to lower-priced imports decimating US manufacturing for the long term but providing a great deflationary force for the near term giving us a real estate bubble boom that ultimately blew up in 2008. Everything from clothing to new cars got a jolt of deflation.

Productivity or output per hour is a very aggregate figure. It's a combination of all input costs. This is where if one were to lay out the entire cost sheet to make anything or provide a service for anything, one would recognize all the various costs that go into it.

It comes down to 3 components: Time, Capital, and Energy (BTU or Kilowatt Hours).

The premise of investment is to improve productivity, first to invest in someone's time to figure out the best method of doing something to get proper outcome and then make the necessary capital investments into making it happen. For example, 11 years ago, I bought a riding lawn mower after calculating the amount of hours I would save (about 20 hours a year) Vs using my push mower. I then happily put out the $1700 to buy the mower which I still use.

In the US economy, productivity was down 1.74% in the first half of 2022 Vs a year ago, which was the lowest reading post-WWII.



Simply put, input costs have soared resulting in lower productivity or output per hour.

As I mentioned before about engineers improving methods and/or new technology or machines like robots that help improve productivity, that would be the best and most honest way of improving the cost sheet. Other variable factors also play a major role in the cost sheet that will ultimately impact the rate of productivity.

Commodities: Oil, Lumber, Corn, Copper, for example. Supply and demand play the major role in the price of these. When they rise, they are an inflationary force, and when they fall, they can be a deflationary force to the cost sheet.

Currency: The Strength of the US dollar can be a deflationary force or an inflationary force as it relates to the cost of commodities and imports, for example.

Imports: Importing goods from cheaper sources has played a major role in being a deflationary force and improving productivity. This played a bigger role up until around 2012 when imports as a percent of GDP peaked. The value of the dollar is more dominant now. Having to produce more goods domestically could prove to be a very inflationary force.

Commodities

My go to source for the current state of commodities is the CRB Index, which is a basket of 19 commodities that is a mix of energy, agriculture, and metals.



This index has been up substantially for nearly 3 years now per the chart above. It's currently at 298 and it was about 220 this time last year, so it's up nearly 36% year over year. It's come down a bit in July after peaking in early June but appears to remain in a bull trend for now.

US Dollar

Using simply the US dollar index, the dollar has been very strong for the past 12 months, making this the sole deflationary force that is helping to offset monetary inflation.

Here is a 1-year chart of the Dollar Index:



This index was about 93 a year ago and is currently 108.40. It's up nearly 16.5% year over year.

We should stop and pause that commodities are as up as they are in dollars and yet the dollar is very strong relative to most other currencies, meaning commodities are up even more for foreigners.

Conclusion

The Fed is trying to get inflation down by hiking rates which should lower the rate of borrowing and lessen the rate of debt growth per capita. This will help lower the rate of inflation but will absolutely hit wages, both hourly and even aggregate so I expect job losses on account of simply not having the money to pay for the workers but also, consumers not having the money to pay for the goods and services.

Inflation may well come down to 3-5%, but weekly earnings may well remain lower, making real weekly earnings remain negative for now.

Productivity is out of gas currently as new methods and technology are not there to help. Everybody has LED light bulbs now. Robots taking jobs was a false premise and will continue to be so. The problem lies in the input costs from the commodities which is a major driver of lower productivity and a fierce inflationary force.

Part of the efforts of the Fed to tighten rates to lower inflation should be to also reduce wage and salary disbursements. As a result of that, demand should fall and that should help to reduce the price of commodities on falling demand, so that's a possibility there.

The strong US dollar is a major deflationary force that is helping more than most people realize. When the time comes when the dollar starts to decline relative to our trading partners, this will turn into an inflationary force.

A return to normal will be when weekly earnings are rising faster than the rate of inflation and I don't see that happening just yet or anytime soon.

Ideally, we'd want to see no job losses coupled with lower inflation and strong gains in wages and weekly earnings. We may well end up with job losses, but an inflation rate far closer to the rate of weekly earnings for those who still have a job over the coming 12 months.

Consider these thoughts relative to what the market expects in the months ahead.

[puede ser]

¿Por qué las empresas canibalizan sus propias acciones?
En 2021, las compañías del índice S&P 500 destinaron más de 880.000 millones de dólares a recomprar sus propias acciones. En los últimos 10 años esa práctica se eleva hasta los 7,7 billones de dólares, seis veces el PIB de España. Pero, ¿por qué las empresas recompran masivamente sus propios títulos?

P. M. | 18 ago 2022

¿Por qué las empresas canibalizan sus propias acciones? - Si lo hubiera sabido

(...)

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/11914698/08/22/Asi-afectara-a-Wall-Street-el-impuesto-del-1-a-las-recompras-de-acciones-de-la-nueva-ley-Biden.html


Así afectará a Wall Street el impuesto del 1% a la recompra de acciones de la nueva 'ley Biden'

Los inversores calibran la medida incluida a última hora en la ley
Se espera que recaude 73.000 millones de dólares durante 10 años
Al entrar en vigor en 2023, podría espolear las recompras este año