Del informe de Hartnett de este jueves 13 de abril de 2023
The Biggest Picture: everyone’s new favorite theme...US dollar debasement; US$-11%since Sept, gold >$2k, bitcoin >$30k; right secular theme (deficits, debt, geopolitics), US$ in 4th bear market of past 50 years, bullish gold, oil, Euro, international stocks; but pessimism so high right now, and 200bps Fed cuts priced in from June to election, look for US$ trading bounce after Fed ends hiking cycle May 3rd(Chart 2).
Tale of the Tape: inflation slowing, Fed hiking cycle over, recession expectations universal, yet UST 30-year can’t break below 3.6% (200-dma) because we’ve already traded 8% to 4% CPI, labor market yet to crack, US govt deficit growing too quickly.
Saludos.