PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2023

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/mercado/2023/07/21/64ba314ae5fdea16268b463e.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/07/22/64bae98c468aebe47c8b4622.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/opinion/2023/07/22/64bae979e5fdea863f8b45ca.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional-sabado/20230722/page/48/textview

La diversidad generacional preocupa y ocupa a la empresa española

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/opinion/2023/07/22/64bae4a3e5fdea31168b45ef.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2023/07/21/64bab4c9468aebb0018b45e3.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/clima-y-medio-ambiente/2023-07-22/calor-extremo-y-global-cronica-de-los-dias-mas-torridos-del-planeta.html

https://elpais.com/clima-y-medio-ambiente/2023-07-22/phoenix-un-dia-en-el-infierno-asi-es-la-vida-a-45-grados-durante-mas-de-20-dias.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-23/most-expensive-euro-on-record-has-traders-braced-for-declines#xj4y7vzkg

Most Expensive Euro on Record Has Traders Braced for Declines

*Nominal effective exchange rate reached an all-time high
*Dovish message from ECB this week can add pressure on the euro

By some measures, the euro is at its most expensive level on record, potentially setting itself up for a fall if starts to undermine the euro area economy and forces the European Central Bank to turn dovish.

The common currency’s so-called nominal effective exchange rate, which compares it to the currencies of the euro area’s trade partners, has never been stronger. It’s also near its highest level against the yuan in three years, potentially dimming the appeal of the region’s exports at a time when a slew of data show both the European and Chinese economies are foundering.

The euro’s strength is “absolutely” a concern for the ECB, said Mark Dragten, head of discretionary FX at Insight Investment.

“Europe sells a good deal of product to China,” he said. “You have to wonder about demand when the Chinese economy is slowing.”



Though the ECB looks at a range of currency measures beside the nominal effective rate, the common currency’s gains are starting to look precarious.

The euro trades near a 17-month high versus the dollar, up more than 18% since falling below parity with the greenback in September, as the ECB delivered the most aggressive monetary-tightening cycle in its history. It has also shot up against the yen and recently jumped versus the pound.

Technical signals suggest the currency is overbought. There’s been a bearish reversal of the euro’s nine-week relative strength index, while the Commodity Channel Index — which measures current prices relative to historical levels — has started to fall, pointing to losses ahead.

“The euro-dollar has no business up here, and it knows it,” said Brad Bechtel, a strategist at Jefferies LLC.

Should ECB President Christine Lagarde ease off on her aggressive inflation-fighting rhetoric when officials meet on Thursday, the euro could go the way of the British pound. Sterling’s winning run hit a wall when UK price-growth data came in surprisingly slow last week.

“The euro and the pound are bit ‘over their skis’ relative to reality,” Bechtel said, predicting the euro will fall back to around $1.1080, from about $1.1114 on Friday.



Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the euro will drop to $1.10 by September before ticking higher to $1.12 by the end of the year.

    What Bloomberg Strategists Say...

    “On a rate-differential basis, the euro should be trading below $1.10. The advance to levels unseen in 17 months was backed up by options demand, yet little has essentially changed on the macro backdrop. The market’s bias to overreact on the narrative that the Fed tightening cycle is ending was once again evident and a fresh catalyst is needed for the common currency to resume the uptrend.”

    — Vassilis Karamanis, FX strategist

Currency strength may feature in the ECB’s messaging this week, according to John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank. The central bank “is likely worried on the currency front and recognizes it as a risk on the growth side of the economy,” he said.

The ECB is widely expected to lift rates by a quarter-point to 3.75% on Thursday and investors will scrutinize Lagarde’s remarks for clues on whether another hike in September is likely.

Recent economic data out of the euro area have missed forecasts, driving down Citi’s Economic Surprise Index, which measures data surprises relative to market expectations. The gauge has been diverging from its US equivalent over the past two months.

A string of economic data due this week will help policymakers shape their next steps, including PMI figures for France, Germany and the euro area on Monday that are mostly forecast to slow. On Tuesday, the widely followed German IFO expectations indexes will come out and on Friday, France releases its second-quarter GDP report, with growth predicted to decelerate on a yearly basis.



“The big test is going to be growth,” said Kit Juckes, chief currency strategist at Societe Generale. “The European economy needs to show a bit more resilience.”

[Derby]

La situación de bloqueo en el mercado inmobiliario estadounidense: los propietarios no ponen sus casas a la venta para no perder el tipo de interés pactado en su hipoteca actual.

https://fortune.com/2023/07/22/housing-market-inventory-map-shows-lock-in-effect/amp/

The housing market’s ‘lock-in effect’ is very real—just look at this map

"Financing these at 3% [mortgage rates] then jumping rates to 6% is the same as burning them [the homes] down from a supply perspective"



Throughout the course of the Pandemic Housing Boom, homebuyers were jumping at the opportunity to secure mortgages at ultra-low rates of 2% to 3%, creating a whirlwind of housing market transactions. But now, a growing frustration is seeping into the industry as those once tantalizingly low rates have given way to a stark reality of higher rates and fewer transactions. The cause of this housing market shift? Enter the “lock-In effect,” a term that has real estate professionals sounding the alarm and grappling with the consequences of the abrupt change.

The idea of the “lock-in effect” is that homeowners are reluctant to sell their properties—and buy something new—due to the financial shock that would come with losing their historically low mortgage rates for something with a 6% or 7% handle.

Sean Dobson, founder and CEO of property powerhouse Amherst, might have summed up the frustration the best when he recently tweeted: “Financing these at 3% [mortgage rates] then jumping rates to 6% [rates] is the same as burning them [the homes] down from a supply perspective.”

Dobson, who runs one of the largest owners of U.S. single-family homes, was responding to a map produced by Fortune (see below) showing the huge decline in the number of homes for sale across the country.

This so-called “lock-in effect” is happening just about everywhere. Resilient East Coast markets like Richmond, Va. and Philadelphia saw new listings decline 27% and 26%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. While even Austin, a market still passing through home price correction, saw a 31% year-over-year decline in new listings on realtor.com between June 2022 and June 2023.

According to Realtor.com, there were 26% fewer U.S. homes listed for sale in June 2023 than in June 2022, and 28.9% fewer than in June 2019.

To better understand the lock-in effect, just consider the fact that 91% of mortgage borrowers have an interest rate below 5%, including 70.7% with an interest rate below 4%. For those homeowners, it simply doesn't make a lot of sense to sell and purchase a property right now at a 6% or 7% mortgage rate.

The limited amount of inventory coming onto the market has fueled competition among buyers and caused home prices to rise in the first half of the year—the seasonally strong part of the year—in most markets. Northeast and Midwest markets, in particular, saw stronger than expected home price gains this spring.

However, there are some exceptions.

Just take a glance at Austin's housing market, and you'll see something unusual happening. Despite a sharp 31% decrease in new listings (i.e. homes coming up for a sale in a given month), Austin home prices are still down 13% from the peak, according to Black Knight. The reason behind this intriguing phenomenon lies in the significant increase of overall supply sitting on the market (i.e. active listings) by 47% year-over-year, even as new listings declined. Austin's housing prices had skyrocketed by around 60% in the first two years of the pandemic, resulting in a considerable affordability shock once mortgage rates spiked, causing homes to linger longer on the market. Rather than witnessing a rush of sellers, Austin is experiencing a pileup effect, which is pushing home prices lower there even as most markets inch higher again.

[Derby]

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/what-should-china-do-to-revive-its

[Cadavre Exquis]

Eating Less Meat 'Like Taking 8 Million Cars Off the Road'
Posted by EditorDavid on Sunday July 23, 2023 @12:34AM from the don't-have-a-cow dept.

"Having big U.K. meat-eaters cut some of it out of their diet would be like taking 8 million cars off the road," reports the BBC:

That's just one of the findings of new research that scientists say gives the most reliable calculation yet of how what we eat impacts our planet.

The Oxford University study is the first to pinpoint the difference high- and low-meat diets have on greenhouse gas emissions, researchers say... [Oxford University] professor Peter Scarborough, who is part of the Livestock Environment And People project surveyed 55,000 people who were divided into big meat-eaters, who ate more than 100g of meat a day, which equates to a big burger, low meat-eaters, whose daily intake was 50g or less, approximately a couple of chipolata sausages, fish-eaters, vegetarians and vegans... The research shows that a big meat-eater's diet produces an average of 10.24 kg of planet-warming greenhouse gasses each day. A low meat-eater produces almost half that at 5.37 kg per day. [Fish diet: 4.74 kg. "Vegetarian" diet: 4.16 kg] And for vegan diets — it's halved again to 2.47 kg a day.

The analysis is the first to look at the detailed impact of diets on other environmental measures all together. These are land use, water use, water pollution and loss of species, usually caused by loss of habitat because of expansion of farming. In all cases high meat-eaters had a significantly higher adverse impact than other groups...

A separate study also published in Nature Food in 2021 concluded that food production was responsible for a third of all global greenhouse gas emissions. And an independent review for the Department for the Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) called for a 30% reduction in meat consumption by 2032 in order to meet the UK's net zero target.

"The meat industry said the analysis overstated the impact of eating meat."

Thanks to long-time Slashdot reader beforewisdom for sharing the article.

Saludos.

[sudden and sharp]

Eating Less Meat 'Like Taking 8 Million Cars Off the Road'
Posted by EditorDavid on Sunday July 23, 2023 @12:34AM from the don't-have-a-cow dept.

"Having big U.K. meat-eaters cut some of it out of their diet would be like taking 8 million cars off the road," reports the BBC:

That's just one of the findings of new research that scientists say gives the most reliable calculation yet of how what we eat impacts our planet.

The Oxford University study is the first to pinpoint the difference high- and low-meat diets have on greenhouse gas emissions, researchers say... [Oxford University] professor Peter Scarborough, who is part of the Livestock Environment And People project surveyed 55,000 people who were divided into big meat-eaters, who ate more than 100g of meat a day, which equates to a big burger, low meat-eaters, whose daily intake was 50g or less, approximately a couple of chipolata sausages, fish-eaters, vegetarians and vegans... The research shows that a big meat-eater's diet produces an average of 10.24 kg of planet-warming greenhouse gasses each day. A low meat-eater produces almost half that at 5.37 kg per day. [Fish diet: 4.74 kg. "Vegetarian" diet: 4.16 kg] And for vegan diets — it's halved again to 2.47 kg a day.

The analysis is the first to look at the detailed impact of diets on other environmental measures all together. These are land use, water use, water pollution and loss of species, usually caused by loss of habitat because of expansion of farming. In all cases high meat-eaters had a significantly higher adverse impact than other groups...

A separate study also published in Nature Food in 2021 concluded that food production was responsible for a third of all global greenhouse gas emissions. And an independent review for the Department for the Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) called for a 30% reduction in meat consumption by 2032 in order to meet the UK's net zero target.

"The meat industry said the analysis overstated the impact of eating meat."

Thanks to long-time Slashdot reader beforewisdom for sharing the article.

Saludos.

A mí que me lo pongan en términos de tantos "campos de futbol"... 

[Derby]

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2023-07-23/encuestas-feijoo-victoria-holgada-mayoria-vox_3706246/

Las encuestas dan a Feijóo una victoria holgada, pero no aclaran si suma con Vox

El sondeo de GAD3 avala la mayoría absoluta en el bloque de la derecha, mientras que el de Sigma Dos para RTVE alienta un escenario de bloqueo. Vox pelea con Sumar el tercer puesto

[Mistermaguf]

Eating Less Meat 'Like Taking 8 Million Cars Off the Road'
Posted by EditorDavid on Sunday July 23, 2023 @12:34AM from the don't-have-a-cow dept.

"Having big U.K. meat-eaters cut some of it out of their diet would be like taking 8 million cars off the road," reports the BBC:

That's just one of the findings of new research that scientists say gives the most reliable calculation yet of how what we eat impacts our planet.

The Oxford University study is the first to pinpoint the difference high- and low-meat diets have on greenhouse gas emissions, researchers say... [Oxford University] professor Peter Scarborough, who is part of the Livestock Environment And People project surveyed 55,000 people who were divided into big meat-eaters, who ate more than 100g of meat a day, which equates to a big burger, low meat-eaters, whose daily intake was 50g or less, approximately a couple of chipolata sausages, fish-eaters, vegetarians and vegans... The research shows that a big meat-eater's diet produces an average of 10.24 kg of planet-warming greenhouse gasses each day. A low meat-eater produces almost half that at 5.37 kg per day. [Fish diet: 4.74 kg. "Vegetarian" diet: 4.16 kg] And for vegan diets — it's halved again to 2.47 kg a day.

The analysis is the first to look at the detailed impact of diets on other environmental measures all together. These are land use, water use, water pollution and loss of species, usually caused by loss of habitat because of expansion of farming. In all cases high meat-eaters had a significantly higher adverse impact than other groups...

A separate study also published in Nature Food in 2021 concluded that food production was responsible for a third of all global greenhouse gas emissions. And an independent review for the Department for the Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) called for a 30% reduction in meat consumption by 2032 in order to meet the UK's net zero target.

"The meat industry said the analysis overstated the impact of eating meat."

Thanks to long-time Slashdot reader beforewisdom for sharing the article.

Saludos.

A mí que me lo pongan en términos de tantos "campos de futbol"... 

Es fácil, dado que un coche promedio mide unos 2 x 4 m, es decir unos 8 m2 (digamos 10 m2 porque hay que dejar un poco de espacio entre ellos), y una cancha de fútbol profesional unos 6.000 m2 (100 x 60m.), entonces 8 millones de coches equivalen a unos 13.300 campos de futbol.

Si pusiéramos estos campos de futbol uno detrás del otro en su sentido largo, equivale a 133 kilómetros, es decir la distancia aproximada entre Yaoundé y Nanga-Eboko, Camerún.

No me preguntes porqué he elegido estas dos ciudades, pero tiene tanto sentido como poner los campos de futbol uno a continuación del otro.

De este modo sabemos que reducir el consumo de carne en una cantidad que no se especifica por parte de una cantidad de ciudadanos británicos que tampoco se especifica (aunque podríamos inferir que sería la totalidad de la población, pero tampoco queda claro), equivale a dotar de un enorme parque automotriz británico a Camerún, que ya les estaría bien porque todos sabemos que el parque automotriz de Camerún no es solo una ruina, sino que es a todas luces insuficiente.

Y por hoy terminamos así con nuestra clase de macroeconomía estratégica, que ahora hay que ver qué pasa con las elecciones.

[R.G.C.I.M.]

Obvian en el estudio que cuando esa cantidad indererminada de humanos coman  avena y vayan en patinete , yo comeré la misma cantidad de carne e iré en amoto.
Para entonces no me calificarán de negacionista  ni insolidario,  sino sencillamente,  de rico.
Y no me odiaran,  me envidiaran.


Sds.

[Benzino Napaloni]

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2023-07-23/encuestas-feijoo-victoria-holgada-mayoria-vox_3706246/

Las encuestas dan a Feijóo una victoria holgada, pero no aclaran si suma con Vox

El sondeo de GAD3 avala la mayoría absoluta en el bloque de la derecha, mientras que el de Sigma Dos para RTVE alienta un escenario de bloqueo. Vox pelea con Sumar el tercer puesto

Pues parece que esos trackings han fallado por no incluir la última semana. Los piscinazos de Frijolito, especialmente el no ir al debate, están pesando muchísimo.

Con casi la mitad del escrutinio hecho, puede que el PP gane aún al PSOE, pero de poco le serviría porque la derecha se ha quedado lejos de la mayoría absoluta.

La jugada de Sánchez adelantando elecciones ha sido magistral.