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https://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug23/hoarding-housing8-23.htmlCitarThe Problem Isn't a Housing Shortage, It's the Concentration of Ownership by the Wealthy, Charles Hugh SmithThis concentration of housing ownership by the wealthy is the direct result of Federal Reserve and federal policies that benefit the wealthy.We're told that sky-high rents and home prices are the result of a shortage of housing. The solution is simple: build more housing.This sounds obvious, but the reality is the problem isn't a shortage, it's the concentration of housing ownership in the top 10%, the same 10% who own the majority of other income-producing assets like stocks and bonds.The problem is the wealthy are hoarding housing as just another income-producing asset to accumulate because the central bank / economic-financial policies of the past few decades have favored capital over labor and the already-wealthy who bought assets when they were cheap.The trillions of dollars in new credit have been asymmetrically distributed: the most creditworthy with the highest incomes and collateral are the top 10%, so they scooped up most of the credit. Since real estate is so heavily dependent on credit (20% down and 80% borrowed, not like stocks and bonds), this massive influx of low-cost credit led to the top 10% accumulating investment housing.In other words, the asymmetric distribution of credit concentrated ownership of housing in the hands of the few at the expense of the many. The wealthy entered bidding wars for "surplus housing" with other wealthy, a bidding process based largely on who had access to the lowest-cost credit and whose existing wealth had ballooned up more in the central bank-generated Everything Bubble.Those without existing credit-bubble-collateral or the free money issued by the Bank of Mom and Dad couldn't compete.Given these asymmetries in credit, collateral and family wealth, there was no way the wealthy wouldn't end up with the lion's share of "surplus housing," just as they ended up owning the lion's share of stocks, bonds, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, artwork, etc.There are many sources of housing-hoarding. One is inheritance. The parents move into assisted living or pass on, and since the family was wealthy enough to help the kids buy their own homes at an early age, the parent's home is "surplus capital" that stays in the family.Another is corporate buying of rental properties. Steadily rising rents (see last chart below) make rental housing a low-risk, attractive investment, so corporations tapped their credit lines or the corporate bond market to snap up tens of thousands of rental homes. Since corporate costs of capital and management are lower than those available to households, corporations can afford to be less price sensitive. Individual buyers could be outbid by corporations.A third source is the recent "investment craze" for short-term vacation rentals (STVR) as the wealthy heard stories of other wealthy people getting $10,000 a month from homes that fetched $2,000 a month as long-term rentals.This differential unleashed a tsunami of home purchases by the wealthy seeking to maximize their gains on cheap credit and "excess capital" stagnating in their accounts earning near-zero interest.In classic fashion, this land-rush frenzy to capture the outsized profits from STVR gobbled up all the housing inventory, creating credit-induced scarcity. Also in classic fashion, wealthy bidders began basing their bids not on $3,000 a month via long-term rental income, but $12,000 a month (in peak season) income from price-insensitive tourists via STVR.The deluge of "revenge spending" unleashed after the pandemic lockdowns ended supercharged the greed and acquisition of housing for short-term vacation rentals. $12,000 a month was now chump-change; the price jumped to $15,000, and soon enough, this was a "bargain" that needed another boost higher.Those desperate for vacations regardless of cost were the perfect customer base for rampant price-gouging, a.k.a. "maximizing return on investment."The true scale of this land-rush by the wealthy into STVRs is difficult to assess for various reasons. To get preferential mortgage and property tax rates, some new owners may have claimed residency or listed the new purchase as a second home. The only way to accurately assess the true scale is to tote up STVR licenses in locales that require STVR owners to obtain permits and pay annual registration fees.Consider the facts displayed below. The current housing bubble arose as a direct result of the flood of stimulus issued by the Federal Reserve and Treasury post-pandemic. Note the massive spike in investment purchases that resulted.The third chart shows that the US population rose by 4 million 2019-2023 while housing expanded by 5 million units. Um, OK, where is the scarcity when housing per capita (per person) is at record highs?The fourth chart shows that the prime home-buying cohort (ages 25-54) has flatlined since 2008, along with the number employed and thus able to obtain and pay a mortgage. What skyrocketed wasn't the number of employed home buyers--what skyrocketed was credit and central bank / government stimulus: the Fed balance sheet and holdings of mortgage-backed securities skyrocketed (fifth chart), directly goosing housing via lowering mortgage rates, and federal deficit spending.The wealthy are hoarding housing because the system has incentivized dumping "excess capital and credit" into housing. This concentration of housing ownership in the wealthy is the direct result of Federal Reserve and federal policies that benefit the wealthy.As longtime correspondent Suzanne S. put it: "I'm not sure we have a housing crisis as much as an ownership crisis."
The Problem Isn't a Housing Shortage, It's the Concentration of Ownership by the Wealthy, Charles Hugh SmithThis concentration of housing ownership by the wealthy is the direct result of Federal Reserve and federal policies that benefit the wealthy.We're told that sky-high rents and home prices are the result of a shortage of housing. The solution is simple: build more housing.This sounds obvious, but the reality is the problem isn't a shortage, it's the concentration of housing ownership in the top 10%, the same 10% who own the majority of other income-producing assets like stocks and bonds.The problem is the wealthy are hoarding housing as just another income-producing asset to accumulate because the central bank / economic-financial policies of the past few decades have favored capital over labor and the already-wealthy who bought assets when they were cheap.The trillions of dollars in new credit have been asymmetrically distributed: the most creditworthy with the highest incomes and collateral are the top 10%, so they scooped up most of the credit. Since real estate is so heavily dependent on credit (20% down and 80% borrowed, not like stocks and bonds), this massive influx of low-cost credit led to the top 10% accumulating investment housing.In other words, the asymmetric distribution of credit concentrated ownership of housing in the hands of the few at the expense of the many. The wealthy entered bidding wars for "surplus housing" with other wealthy, a bidding process based largely on who had access to the lowest-cost credit and whose existing wealth had ballooned up more in the central bank-generated Everything Bubble.Those without existing credit-bubble-collateral or the free money issued by the Bank of Mom and Dad couldn't compete.Given these asymmetries in credit, collateral and family wealth, there was no way the wealthy wouldn't end up with the lion's share of "surplus housing," just as they ended up owning the lion's share of stocks, bonds, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, artwork, etc.There are many sources of housing-hoarding. One is inheritance. The parents move into assisted living or pass on, and since the family was wealthy enough to help the kids buy their own homes at an early age, the parent's home is "surplus capital" that stays in the family.Another is corporate buying of rental properties. Steadily rising rents (see last chart below) make rental housing a low-risk, attractive investment, so corporations tapped their credit lines or the corporate bond market to snap up tens of thousands of rental homes. Since corporate costs of capital and management are lower than those available to households, corporations can afford to be less price sensitive. Individual buyers could be outbid by corporations.A third source is the recent "investment craze" for short-term vacation rentals (STVR) as the wealthy heard stories of other wealthy people getting $10,000 a month from homes that fetched $2,000 a month as long-term rentals.This differential unleashed a tsunami of home purchases by the wealthy seeking to maximize their gains on cheap credit and "excess capital" stagnating in their accounts earning near-zero interest.In classic fashion, this land-rush frenzy to capture the outsized profits from STVR gobbled up all the housing inventory, creating credit-induced scarcity. Also in classic fashion, wealthy bidders began basing their bids not on $3,000 a month via long-term rental income, but $12,000 a month (in peak season) income from price-insensitive tourists via STVR.The deluge of "revenge spending" unleashed after the pandemic lockdowns ended supercharged the greed and acquisition of housing for short-term vacation rentals. $12,000 a month was now chump-change; the price jumped to $15,000, and soon enough, this was a "bargain" that needed another boost higher.Those desperate for vacations regardless of cost were the perfect customer base for rampant price-gouging, a.k.a. "maximizing return on investment."The true scale of this land-rush by the wealthy into STVRs is difficult to assess for various reasons. To get preferential mortgage and property tax rates, some new owners may have claimed residency or listed the new purchase as a second home. The only way to accurately assess the true scale is to tote up STVR licenses in locales that require STVR owners to obtain permits and pay annual registration fees.Consider the facts displayed below. The current housing bubble arose as a direct result of the flood of stimulus issued by the Federal Reserve and Treasury post-pandemic. Note the massive spike in investment purchases that resulted.The third chart shows that the US population rose by 4 million 2019-2023 while housing expanded by 5 million units. Um, OK, where is the scarcity when housing per capita (per person) is at record highs?The fourth chart shows that the prime home-buying cohort (ages 25-54) has flatlined since 2008, along with the number employed and thus able to obtain and pay a mortgage. What skyrocketed wasn't the number of employed home buyers--what skyrocketed was credit and central bank / government stimulus: the Fed balance sheet and holdings of mortgage-backed securities skyrocketed (fifth chart), directly goosing housing via lowering mortgage rates, and federal deficit spending.The wealthy are hoarding housing because the system has incentivized dumping "excess capital and credit" into housing. This concentration of housing ownership in the wealthy is the direct result of Federal Reserve and federal policies that benefit the wealthy.As longtime correspondent Suzanne S. put it: "I'm not sure we have a housing crisis as much as an ownership crisis."
SIGUE LA RETIRADA HISTÓRICA DE DEPÓSITOSLos hogares sacan del banco el grueso de las pagas extra para pasar el veranoLas familias siguen con la tendencia de disminuir el colchón de ahorro ante la falta de remuneración del pasivo por parte de las entidades. La evolución de los depósitos entre junio y julio es la más débil desde 2015El ahorro en depósitos y cuentas corrientes continúa con su tendencia descendente este año. Las familias rehúyen dejar el dinero parado en el banco ante la falta de remuneración de los depósitos y han sacado el grueso de las pagas extra de julio, a diferencia de lo ocurrido en los tres últimos años. Además, es el ahorro neto más bajo en los dos primeros meses del verano, a las puertas de las vacaciones, en ocho años.Los hogares sacaron del banco una cifra neta de 5.502 millones en julio, más de la mitad del incremento de junio, mes en el que es habitual que haya un repunte del volumen de depósitos, lo mismo que ocurre en diciembre. La explicación se debe a las pagas extra, habituales en España, y que se suelen abonar entre finales de junio y principios de julio. Esta vez, y pese a que hay muchas extra que se pagan en los primeros días de julio, el mes se ha saldado con un descenso en el ahorro de las familias españolas en cuentas corrientes y depósitos. Esto implica que continúa la tendencia de retirada de depósitos que se está llevando a cabo este año, con cifras históricas.Fuentes financieras explican que el descenso se debe a tres grandes razones. La primera es que muchas familias tiran de ahorro para mantener niveles de consumo ante el aumento de la inflación y los costes financieros, lo que se agrava en hogares que tienen hipotecas a tipo variable y, especialmente, cuando son préstamos constituidos en los últimos años.El euríbor ha pasado en año y medio del -0,5% al 4%, lo que castiga las finanzas personales de muchas familias. Precisamente por ello, otro motivo por el que hay retirada de depósitos es para amortizar hipotecas. Muchos hogares que tienen holgura financiera para ello están aprovechando que tenían colchón en el banco para usarlo y amortizar préstamos. Por ello, se han disparado las amortizaciones en la gran banca, especialmente en Santander. La otra gran explicación para la retirada de depósitos está en que los depósitos no dan nada, salvo a grandes patrimonios y a empresas, o con la excepción de pequeñas entidades que quieren ganar cuota. Así, las familias con ahorros tienen incentivos para optar por otros instrumentos, como fondos de renta fija o garantizados. Los propios bancos están potenciando su comercialización para sumar comisiones de gestión en vez de empeorar sus márgenes con un incremento del coste de los depósitos.De esta forma, los hogares siguen sacando dinero de los bancos. En julio, retomaron la senda con la que llevan meses. De hecho, el neto entre junio y julio supone el menor ahorro desde 2015. El volumen de depósitos aumentó en julio en 10.228 millones y descendió en junio en 5.502 millones, lo que supone un aumento neto de 4.726 millones.Es la primera vez desde 2019 que hay un descenso de los depósitos en julio, mientras que la cifra neta de aumento entre junio y julio de los citados 4.726 millones es la más reducida desde 2015. Fuentes bancarias apuntan a que las familias han seguido reduciendo su ahorro, y que el mes que viene el dato del Banco de España de agosto es probable que confirme cómo las familias reducen la cifra de ahorro respecto al volumen de mayo, habiendo sacado el equivalente a las pagas extra y, de hecho, una cifra mayor.
A partir del 1 de enero de 2025, ya no se podrán alquilar alojamientos de clase G en el sentido del DPE. El alojamiento debe tener al menos la clasificación F para ofrecerse en alquiler; a partir del 1 de enero de 2028, deberá alcanzar al menos la clase E para que se ofrezca alojamiento en alquiler; A partir del 1 de enero de 2034, el alojamiento deberá alcanzar al menos la clase D para poder alquilarse. En julio de 2022, según el Observatorio Nacional de Renovación Energética (Onre), había 30 millones de residencias principales en Francia, incluidas 1,5 millones clasificados A o B según la DPE, El 24% de la flota clasificada C, es decir, 7,2 millones. 9,6 millones clasificados D, 6,6 millones con calificación E, 5,2 millones de viviendas con calificación F o G y 0,5 millones de hogares con un consumo de energía final anual en el sentido del DPE superior a 450 kWh/m².año.
South Korea to Cut Mortgage Rates for New Parents to Push BirthsKorea has been struggling with world’s lowest fertility rateHousing costs often blamed for reluctance to have babiesSouth Korea plans to offer mortgages with advantageous interest rates to parents of newborns in the latest effort to fight the decline in fertility rates and slow the aging of society.Parents will be eligible to apply for a mortgage with a rate of between 1.6% and 3.3% for five years if they have had a child in the last two years and together earn 130 million won ($98,200) or less annually, according to a statement from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. That’s about 1 to 3 percentage points cheaper than loans offered by commercial banks, it said.(...)
Lego Bets China’s Weakness to Be Offset by Boom in Middle Class DemandWorld’s biggest toymaker to open some 100 China stores a yearCEO says Lego will ‘sit out’ the short-term consumption slumpLego A/S is putting its money on China’s expanding middle class, the world’s biggest, shrugging off short-term economic woes in the Asian nation.The world’s largest toymaker will invest in China, adding new stores and production capabilities, because it sees the growing demographic helping the Asian country become a long-term growth market, according to Chief Executive Officer Niels B. Christiansen.(...)
Hoy en La Nueva España, el periódico con más tirada de Asturias, hablaban de como la tendencia era alquilar por habitaciones "para evitar la ocupación", y que no había pisos suficientes para los MIR y los de estudiantes y profesores - eso no se lo cree nadie, siempre ha habido el mismo número de MIR, y de lo demás ni hablamos porque da la risa-. Definitivamente los caseros están en guerra, y van con una chulería contra la Ley de Vivienda , como si la pudieran derogar ellos. O se les aplasta sin miramientos o la economía de mercadillo gana aunque se cargue el país, antes de la suelta del nuevo modelo de PPCC
La sorpresa va a ser mayúscula cuando descubran que, desde mediados de los 1980 hasta mediados de los 2020, lo único que ha pasado es que ha estado vigente un modelo de Producción-Renta-Gasto especialmente pisitófilo y creditófago, entre varias posibilidades que tiene el sistema capitalista de manifestarse, modelo del que está hasta las narices.]