PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2023

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/9df6003b-3760-4eee-b189-92c0247fa1a5

World at ‘beginning of end’ of fossil fuel era, IEA says

Global demand for oil, natural gas and coal expected to peak before end of 2030

The world is at “the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era, according to the leading global energy watchdog, which for the first time has forecast that demand for oil, natural gas and coal will all peak before 2030.

New projections by the International Energy Agency forecast that the consumption of the three major fossil fuels will start to decline this decade because of the rapid growth of renewable energy and the spread of electric vehicles.

“We are witnessing the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era and we have to prepare ourselves for the next era,” IEA head Fatih Birol said of the projections, due to be published next month in the body’s World Energy Outlook. “It shows that climate policies do work.”

In an op-ed for the Financial Times, Birol hailed a “historic turning point” but called on policymakers to do more to speed up the energy transition and reduce emissions, despite political obstacles to decarbonisation.

Governments across the world have increased investments in renewables in response to climate change and the energy crisis stoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but many have faced a backlash over the expense during a cost of living crisis.

The IEA, which is primarily funded by the OECD, said last year that fossil fuel demand in aggregate could peak around 2030. But it has now brought forward its projections because the rollout of renewable technologies has accelerated in the past 12 months.

Birol also emphasised “structural shifts” in China’s economy as it moves from heavy industry to less energy-intensive industries and services.

“In the last 10 years China accounted for about one-third of the growth in natural gas demand globally and two-thirds of the growth in oil demand,” Birol said. “Solar, wind and nuclear power will be eating up the potential growth of coal in China.”

The IEA chief said policymakers had to be “nimble” to adapt to the energy transition and argued it could be accelerated through “stronger climate policies”, despite concerns in western capitals about voters’ tolerance for rapid change.

The US and EU have launched ambitious programmes to support the growth of renewable energy, but have faced criticism from political opponents over costs.

The head of the European parliament, Roberta Metsola, warned this month that Brussels’s climate policies risked driving voters towards populist parties, while in the UK the government has backed new oil and gas drilling and criticised the expansion of London’s ultra-low emission zone.

Birol said that large new fossil fuel projects ran the risk of becoming so-called stranded assets, while acknowledging that some investment in oil and gas supplies would be needed to account for declines at existing fields.

Both he and the IEA have faced attacks from large fossil fuel producers who warn under-investment in oil and gas supplies risks future energy crises if forecasts for a peak in consumption prove too optimistic.

Opec, the oil producers’ cartel, accused the IEA in April of stoking “volatility” in markets through its calls to stop investing in new oil developments.

Birol said: “Oil and gas companies may not only be misjudging public opinion . . . they may well be misjudging the market if they expect further growth of oil and gas demand across this decade.

“New large scale fossil fuel projects carry not only major climate risks but major financial risks,” he added.

Birol called on policymakers not to become complacent, warning that emissions needed to fall rapidly after a peak in the mid-2020s to have any chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C degrees.

“We expect mid this decade global emissions will peak, but it is still far from reaching our climate goals even with additional policies,” said Birol. “We can speed this up if we put the right new policies in place . . . It is in our hands.”

[senslev]

RENT vs. INCOME

https://x.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1701227710100484477?s=20

[el malo]

RENT vs. INCOME

https://x.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1701227710100484477?s=20

Estaba viendo el gráfico subir y subir y me estaba dando angustia. Qué manera de cargarnos nuestro propio futuro. Espero que en el futuro esto se estudie como uno de los períodos negros de la humanidad y que los estudiantes no entiendan qué se nos podía pasar por la cabeza para endeudarnos de por vida por un tulipán puñetero piso.

Mientras tanto hay que adaptarse a los tiempos que tenemos y buscar nuestra propia salida. No hay otra.

[Derby]

https://www.cityam.com/value-of-mortgages-in-arrears-climbs-to-highest-level-since-2016-as-rising-interest-rates-bite/

Brits face mortgage crisis as number in arrears climbs to highest this decade

The value of UK mortgages in arrears climbed to its highest level since 2016, as rising interest rates pour pressure on borrowers.

According to Bank of England data, the total value of residential mortgages in arrears of at least 1.5 per cent of the outstanding mortgage increased by 13 per cent on the previous quarter to £16.9bn.

This was the highest seen since the third quarter of 2016 and 28.8 per cent greater than a year earlier.(...)

[newclo]

RENT vs. INCOME

https://x.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1701227710100484477?s=20

Estaba viendo el gráfico subir y subir y me estaba dando angustia. Qué manera de cargarnos nuestro propio futuro. Espero que en el futuro esto se estudie como uno de los períodos negros de la humanidad y que los estudiantes no entiendan qué se nos podía pasar por la cabeza para endeudarnos de por vida por un tulipán puñetero piso.

Mientras tanto hay que adaptarse a los tiempos que tenemos y buscar nuestra propia salida. No hay otra.

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1701337655886102874

During the Great Depression houses were 3x the average salary. Today it's 8x

Cars were 46% of the yearly salary. Today it's 85%

Rent only took 16% of the annual salary. Today it's 42%

[Derby]

https://www.cityam.com/london-rent-crisis-spirals-as-almost-half-of-uk-landlords-tried-to-sell-up-in-last-year/

London rent crisis spirals as almost half of UK landlords tried to sell up in last year

Almost half of UK landlords have tried to sell their property in the last 12 months, as owners look to rid themselves of mortgage pressures in a worrying blow for renters.

In a survey which quizzed both landlords and estate agents – conducted by lettings platform Goodlord – some 77.5 per cent of respondents in London alone cited rising mortgage rates as a reason for homeowners trying to exit the market.

A further 98 per cent of estate agents in London reported that at least one of their landlords was selling a property. As a whole across the UK, 47 per cent of the landlords have tried to shift their property in the last 12 months.

The ecosystem of the UK’s housing market has been battered in the last year – first by the fall out of last September’s mini budget and then by the central bank’s 14 straight interest rate hikes which sent borrowing costs into a frenzy.

Despite mortgage rates cooling from their summer peak, landlords appear to still be bruised from the fall out, as 80 per cent of agents warned that they expected more landlords to reduce their property portfolio in the next 12 months.

The figures will spell misery for the UK’s 4.6 million private tenants who have seen the renting pool shrink over the last year.

Some 73 per cent of renters said that finding a property to rent was “one of the most stressful things they have ever done.”

The dwindling supply has also allowed landlords to ramp up the asking monthly renting price on their properties – 13 per cent of tenants this year said that they paid more rent per month than the rate originally advertised.

“When tenant contracts come to an end, they now look around the marketplace and realise that there’s little point moving to another property, as it’s likely to cost them another hundred pounds or more per month,” Mark Gray, director at Elevation Lettings.

“That in itself has contributed to much lower numbers of fluidity of movement and availability across all the property portals.”

“London has always experienced high demand from tenants which has been met as much as possible by private as well as corporate landlords,” Richard Davies, chief operating officer of Chestertons, said.

“With major changes such as the Renters Reform Bill being introduced as well as rising interest rates generating less profit for overleveraged landlords in particular, the market has seen some deciding to sell up.

He added: “At the same time, however, we are liaising with homeowners; not landlords; who delay their sale due to the weaker sales market and put their property on the rental market instead.”

[Lem]

RENT vs. INCOME

https://x.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1701227710100484477?s=20

sí y no.

de entre las respuestas al tuit:

@DannyHeinz57

This already been debunked. They're showing inflation adjusted wages and nominal rent, but saying both are inflation adjusted

@bhendrickson

That data seems wrong. Here are rents vs income data direct from FRED, which show they have tracked fairly closely.

Rent vs income, inflation adjusted:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=18JXu

Rent vs income, nominal dollars:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=18JWw

y este tiene un video corrigiendo el (incorrecto) original:

@EconChrisClarke

The viral rent to income video is a lie. I tracked down the original source & methodology. It forgot to adjust HUD's rental data for inflation, but did use "real" median income, which is adjusted for inflation. While a problematic rent/income gap exists, we need to tell the truth

https://twitter.com/econchrisclarke/status/1701418358133166229?s=61&t=Wgd1NWmSitn-SDkoeqmUHQ

[Lem]

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1701337655886102874

During the Great Depression houses were 3x the average salary. Today it's 8x

Cars were 46% of the yearly salary. Today it's 85%

Rent only took 16% of the annual salary. Today it's 42%

sin entrar a revisar lo que dice el tuit en cuestión, lo que diga Wall Street Silver con pinzas mínimo:

[newclo]

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1701337655886102874

During the Great Depression houses were 3x the average salary. Today it's 8x

Cars were 46% of the yearly salary. Today it's 85%

Rent only took 16% of the annual salary. Today it's 42%

sin entrar a revisar lo que dice el tuit en cuestión, lo que diga Wall Street Silver con pinzas mínimo:

Otra vez me he dejado llevar....


Se ve que es lo que mi cerebro quería ver

mil perdones... y mil gracias !

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/80a03108-c9f0-4362-b46e-5d9067bd624c

EU lawmakers vote to sharply increase bloc’s renewable energy target


European parliament agrees to lift green energy share to 42.5% by 2030 after nuclear power concessions

EU lawmakers have voted to increase the bloc’s share of renewable energy to more than 40 per cent by 2030 and to loosen permitting procedures, just as its solar and wind power groups warn they are at risk of insolvency.

The European parliament’s vote on Tuesday to increase the share of renewable power in the EU’s energy mix from a 30 per cent target to 42.5 per cent by 2030 comes against the backdrop of a global push to accelerate clean power.

The day before, however, European solar module manufacturers said they faced bankruptcy as a result of “fierce competition” from Chinese companies that benefit from vast state subsidies and cheap labour.

The EU agreement on the new target was only reached after last-minute concessions were made to France and eastern European countries on nuclear power, which is low carbon but produces radioactive waste.

The outcome was met with applause after almost three-quarters of lawmakers voted in favour of the rules, despite opposition from some rightwing politicians. Several French lawmakers abstained.

The legislation also said that national authorities should only take up to two years to approve renewables projects by allowing them to be recognised as having an overriding public interest and by simplifying permitting procedures.

Kadri Simson, the EU’s energy commissioner, said the upgraded target was “the right signal to attract the massive investment required” and that “the new permitting [procedures] will be a game-changer for renewable deployment”.

About 130GW of renewable energy projects — equivalent to about 120bn cubic metres of gas — are awaiting approval in the EU, according to the European Commission.

At the weekend, leaders of the G20 economies, which are responsible for about 80 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions, agreed to a goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 during a difficult summit, where they simultaneously failed to set a timeline for the end of fossil fuel use.

Brussels proposed that it would improve its renewable energy targets after its gas supply from Russia was steadily cut off by Moscow following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

But final approval was held up after France made a late push for better recognition of nuclear power, which makes up about three-quarters of its energy mix.

Ultimately, small concessions on the production of ammonia from nuclear energy were secured. However, the hold-up by Paris forms part of a broader trend of member states seeking carve-outs from climate laws that affect their individual energy mixes.

Germany secured greater allowances for so-called e-fuels for cars in rules to phase out the combustion engine by 2035, while Poland is suing the European Commission over a series of regulations that it argues threaten its energy security.

The renewables directive is part of the EU’s Green Deal climate law, which aims to position the bloc as a leader in environmental regulations. But since its announcement in 2019, the EU has fallen behind in the global race for clean technology as it tries to compete with huge subsidies in China and the US.

“We need to be a little bit careful in the EU,” said Markus Pieper, a German lawmaker who led negotiations on the renewables law. “We have 24 per cent renewables in the energy mix, twice as much as worldwide, but the EU last year only . . . installed half the wind turbine capacity compared to the global average.”

He also called for an “import strategy” for green hydrogen as he acknowledged that the EU would not be able to produce all of its own clean energy domestically.

The EU’s renewables law, which also sets out criteria for hydrogen production, has proved controversial among environmental campaigners for giving allowances for the burning of biomass for energy.

“Burning scarce and valuable wood and other primary biomass sources risks EU climate and nature targets,” said Elise Attal, head of EU policy at Principles for Responsible Investment, a UN-backed agency.

A future revision of the renewable energy rules, which policymakers are already working on, “exclude tax benefits or other support for using biomass for heating and power generation”, she said.

[Derby]

https://www.economiadigital.es/economia/agosto-cerro-con-la-inflacion-en-el-26-pero-los-alimentos-siguen-disparados-al-105.html

Agosto cerró con la inflación en el 2,6% pero los alimentos siguen disparados al 10,5%

La inflación subyacente, la que no incluye los alimentos frescos ni los precios energéticos, se mantiene enquistada por encima del 6%

El mes de agosto cerró con un repunte de la inflación general al 2,6%, debido a la subida de los precios de los combustibles, y con una ligera moderación en el coste de los alimentos, que siguen disparados por encima del 10% (10,5%, tres décimas menos que en julio). En lo que respecta al índice subyacente, sin la volatilidad de los productos frescos y energéticos, se moderó en una décima, hasta el 6,1%, pero se mantiene enquistado en niveles muy altos.

«Durante el mes de agosto la inflación se mantuvo por debajo del 3% y se moderó la de los alimentos. España se consolida como la economía europea con mayor crecimiento y menor inflación, lo cual beneficia a la competitividad de nuestras empresas y también el poder adquisitivo de los salarios», ha celebrado la vicepresidenta primera en funciones y ministra de Asuntos Económicos, Nadia Calviño, en declaraciones remitidas a los medios.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/e7504053-2108-40d8-a898-3cda891140ac

Assets of world’s top pension funds fall for first time in 5 years
Josephine Cumbo in London

Total assets at the world’s 300 largest pension funds declined for the first time since 2018, as elevated inflation and higher interest rates disrupted stock and bond markets.

Their assets totalled $20.6tn at the end of 2022, a 12.9 per cent decline after 8.9 per cent growth in 2021, according to WTW’s Thinking Ahead Institute.

“High inflation and higher interest rates disrupted equity and bond markets worldwide, piling the pressure on pension funds to adapt their strategies,” said WTW in its Global Top 300 Pension Funds report.

The UK and Japan had the largest number of pension funds fall out of the top 300 globally, the report said.

[Zelig]

Blackstone sube precios hasta el 70% y alquila pisos por meses para salvar sus cuentas
El fondo de inversión está incrementando los arrendamientos entre un 38% y un 70% en viviendas que antiguamente eran de protección pública
https://www.economiadigital.es/empresas/blackstone-precios-contratos-temporales.html

Sobre esto, lo primero que esto implica amueblar y dotar el piso. Nadie en su sano juicio hace una mudanza con muebles para irse a la fuerza en menos de un año (aunque algún casero listillo intentándolo sí he visto).

Pero luego está el problema de que les salga un inquilino cabrón. Los jueces están hartos de estos casos. No se puede disfrazar de temporal un contrato de vivienda habitual, igual que es un fraude disfrazar de temporal un trabajo habitual. Se arriesgan a comerse un contrato de 7 años con la revisión de la renta bloqueada.

Demasiado arriesgado para el fondo buitre. Claro que hay que tener agallas de denunciar.

Te voy a dar una hipotesis.
No son para alquilar, son para "sacarlos" del mercado de alquiler, provocar escasez, subir los precios del alquiler del entorno con lo que sube el precio de venta.
Compran bloques que están ya en alquiler, no bloques vacios ni en construcción, que yo sepa y "echan" a los inquilinos subiendo precios.
Nadie que conozco vive en piso de alquiler de fondo buitre.

Compras bloque por 100, echas a inquilinos que te rentaban 10, ahora rentaría 20 (pero esos inquilinos no sé si existen) con lo que el valor pasa a 200. Hasta que sea el momento de hacer un rug pull.

Esto es por lo que veo desde fuera, en Lavapies que han adquirido montones de bloques para gentrificar y mirando el famoso bloque del ensanche de vallekas. Pues no veo viviendo mucha gente en ninguno.

Pero vamos muy hipotésis todo, no tengo cifras, ni las encuentro.

[Derby]

Efectivamente, para atraer a posibles inquilinos, lo primero que se ofrece es un periodo de carencia (una o dos semanas) para hacer la mudanza y sólo en última instancia se rebaja la renta. Hay que pensar además, que con la Ley de la Vivienda, el importe máximo lo fija el último contrato de alquiler vigente; con lo que rebajar la renta es siempre la última opción para el propietario.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/some-landlords-offer-deals-asking-rents-sit-near-record-highs

Some landlords offer deals as asking rents sit near record highs

Median asking rent in August climbed to $2,052

Landlords in certain areas of the U.S. are offering discounts to attract tenants while keeping asking rents near record highs.

The median U.S. asking rent in August rose to $2,052, up 0.7% from the month prior and only $2 below the record high set a year earlier, according to recent data from real estate brokerage Redfin.

Meanwhile, the national rental vacancy rate reached 6.3% in the second quarter, which is the latest data available. That figure is just shy of the 6.4% vacancy rate reached during the first quarter, the highest seen in two years, according to Redfin.

With surging prices and vacancies on the rise, some landlords are offering anywhere between one and three months free to attract renters without lowering their asking rents, according to Rent. CEO Jon Ziglar.

It's similar to what landlords, especially in major metropolitan areas, were forced to do during the pandemic when renters were fleeing cities. However, a year ago, when demand was surging, concessions were less common.

As a result of these new concessions, rents are coming down in certain areas even though the declines don't show up in asking-rent data.

"Higher-end properties are beginning to see pressure in certain markets as a significant portion of new units coming online are in the higher-end and luxury segment," Ziglar said.

At the same time, there is still "a lot of competition for more affordable units due to less new supply, as well as increased pressure on consumer wallets limiting the ability to stretch for that higher level experience," he added.

The good news is that while rents are still sitting near record highs, rent growth is cooling due to slowing household formation, economic uncertainty, affordability challenges and an increase in rental supply, Redfin said.

Over the past two years, rents have been posting large year-over-year gains because of surging demand. For instance, in August 2022, the median asking rent was up 12.3% from the prior year.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Te voy a dar una hipotesis.
No son para alquilar, son para "sacarlos" del mercado de alquiler, provocar escasez, subir los precios del alquiler del entorno con lo que sube el precio de venta.
Compran bloques que están ya en alquiler, no bloques vacios ni en construcción, que yo sepa y "echan" a los inquilinos subiendo precios.
Nadie que conozco vive en piso de alquiler de fondo buitre.

Compras bloque por 100, echas a inquilinos que te rentaban 10, ahora rentaría 20 (pero esos inquilinos no sé si existen) con lo que el valor pasa a 200. Hasta que sea el momento de hacer un rug pull.

Esto es por lo que veo desde fuera, en Lavapies que han adquirido montones de bloques para gentrificar y mirando el famoso bloque del ensanche de vallekas. Pues no veo viviendo mucha gente en ninguno.

Pero vamos muy hipotésis todo, no tengo cifras, ni las encuentro.

Más sencillo que eso.

El especulador sólo quiere dos cosas. Una obvia, comprar barato y vender caro. Pero además de necesitar perspectivas de vender caro, también necesita poder soltar lastre rápido si las cosas se tuercen. En el caso del alquiler, poder romper los contratos.

Esto último se vincula directamente al "si no lo vendoalquilo, lo alquilovendo". Ahora mismo el especulador se ha pillado los dedos. La venta no va a ser una salida para una larga temporada por los tipos altos, y la "hotelización del inquilinato" que abrió la LAU 2013 ya se ha cerrado. Al menos para contratos por vivienda habitual.

Todas estas marranadas de los alquileres temporales son fundamentalmente porque es la única escapatoria que ha quedado para tener la renta bloqueada al IPC para 5-7 años. Esto ya es la fase de pánico final en la que alguien se va a comer pérdidas sí o sí. Viendo las noticias que no destacan especialmente, como las que trae Derby avisando de que en GB los caseros van a la desesperada intentando vender, o las que reflejan que los bancos evalúan en un 60% el sobreprecio, o que "la crisis de precios se da por descontada" revelando que "el escudo de la banca está puesto", se ve cómo nos vamos acercando al punto crítico.