PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Verano 2022

[Derby]

¿Cuántos "señores mayores" (ja!) a los que les están "haciendo favores" (ja ja!) habrá en los portales inmobiliarios? Quitenle un 30% a esos precios de oferta si quieren saber lo que hay de verdad.

No se vende nada y lo veo a diario. Los precios son de catálogo...todo lo que ha venido diciendo PPCC/Asustadísimos durante años es exacto, ajustado a la realidad.

[sudden and sharp]

Max Pain is about $34

[Cadavre Exquis]

Medio lleno...

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-pais-1a-edicion/20220729/282003266174128

España registra el mayor alza de contratos indefinido­s de la historia

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2022/07/28/economia/1658989598_762806.html

... medio vacío:

https://www.elmundo.es/economia/2022/07/28/62e2c74221efa0d32b8b4594.html

El empleo se ralentiza y crea 81.600 puestos de trabajo menos que en 2021

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/07/29/62e2f142e5fdeaf70a8b46de.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/11888268/07/22/Urkullu-reacciona-al-IPC-y-deflacta-un-4-todos-los-tramos-del-IRPF.html

Saludos.

[Mad Men]

Medio lleno...

https://www.elmundo.es/economia/2022/07/28/62e2c74221efa0d32b8b4594.html

El empleo se ralentiza y crea 81.600 puestos de trabajo menos que en 2021

... medio vacío:

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-pais-1a-edicion/20220729/282003266174128

España registra el mayor alza de contratos indefinido­s de la historia

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2022/07/28/economia/1658989598_762806.html

Saludos.

Después miras la evolución de la productividad y se cae todo el tinglado.

Saludos

[Derby]

Evergrande no presenta el plan de reestructuración prometido para finales de julio...pinta que no hay ni por dónde empezar para hacer un plan. Ni tan sólo un "banco malo"...es el problema de un esquema Ponzi de venta de pisos sobre plano.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evergrande-offers-restructuring-principles-debt-143107265.html

China Evergrande Falls Short of Promised Restructuring Plan



China Evergrande Group, the world’s most indebted developer at the center of a broader debt crisis in the country’s property industry, had for months vowed to deliver a ‘preliminary restructuring plan’ by the end of July.

But when the beleaguered property giant made an exchange filing in Hong Kong late on the night of the final business day of the month, it presented instead what it called ‘preliminary restructuring principles.’

While the builder said it would try to announce a specific restructuring plan within 2022, it made no reference to the previously promised preliminary proposal, which investors had hoped would provide clarity on plans to sell assets and extend debt maturities.

Evergrande’s failure to deliver on its preliminary plan could fuel concern about the future of a firm whose fate has broader implications for China’s $50 trillion financial system and millions of home owners. Other builders have added to record defaults since last year after a government crackdown on excessive leverage and speculation on housing. Liquidity crunches have prompted developers to stall projects and leave fees unpaid. Unprecedented mortgage and loan boycotts have erupted from angry homebuyers and suppliers.

The sheer size of Evergrande’s liabilities of about $300 billion has left global investors worried that any collapse could spark financial contagion and curb growth in the world’s second-largest economy, which depends on the housing market for about a quarter of gross domestic product.

“The whole pyramid is collapsing now,” said Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of J Capital Research Ltd. “What’s different is that things are worse now because of the Evergrande crisis a year ago, which is spreading its tentacles throughout the Chinese economy.”

Newly appointed Chief Executive Officer Shawn Siu said that Evergrande will focus on completing construction projects, and won’t sacrifice the interest of onshore investors, according to an interview with 21st Century Business Herald. When asked why the restructuring plan fell short of market expectations, Siu said that the company encountered complicated and challenging matters, asking for more patience.

Evergrande’s potential failure to follow its previously set timeline would be “negative for overall investor confidence, and sets the process on the wrong foot as it would dent Evergrande’s credibility further,” Jean-Louis Nakamura, the chief investment officer for the Asia Pacific region at Lombard Odier, told Bloomberg News earlier this week.

The development comes just days after a management shakeup stirred fresh uncertainties. The group said last week that former CEO Xia Haijun was forced to resign amid a company probe into how 13.4 billion yuan ($2 billion) of deposits were used as security for third parties to obtain bank loans, which some borrowers then failed to pay back. Chief Financial Officer Pan Darong was also made to step down.

“The delay is not exactly a surprise to the market given that there was the negative development at Evergrande recently about the resignation of the CEO and the CFO,” said Zerlina Zeng, senior credit analyst from CreditSights.

The company itself said as recently as June that it was actively pushing forward with restructuring work and expected to announce the preliminary plan by the end of July.

The builder shook markets when it defaulted on dollar-bond payments late last year. It is also facing a winding-up lawsuit and resistance from creditors that could push it toward its first onshore default.

Evergrande said in the Friday filing that it may offer some assets outside of China to repay creditors, including shares of its electric vehicle and property management services. The restructuring will include the company’s offshore notes, debt obligations of its subsidiaries, and repurchase obligations by its unlisted online sales platform FCB Group, it said.

The builder said “the principle of fair treatment of creditors will be reflected in the restructuring proposal.”

President Xi Jinping’s government is trying to strike a balance between curbing debt at acquisitive and leveraged private companies, while limiting the economic fallout. Xi is seeking to rein in ballooning borrowings and the billionaire class as part of his “common prosperity” campaign to reduce a yawning wealth gap. That’s led to a record wave of dollar bond defaults by developers.

In one example of how this is all cascading, a group of small businesses and suppliers that said they’d stop paying their own debts blamed Evergrande for leaving them out of pocket.

China is considering a plan to seize undeveloped land from distressed real estate companies, using it to help finance the completion of stalled housing projects that have sparked mortgage boycotts across the country, according to people familiar with the matter.

The proposal, which is still under discussion and could change, would take advantage of Chinese laws allowing local governments to wrest back control of land sold to real estate companies if it remains undeveloped after two years, without compensation.  That would give authorities more leeway to direct funds toward uncompleted homes, potentially to the detriment of creditors who would lose claims on some of developers’ most valuable assets.

[Benzino Napaloni]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/07/29/62e2f142e5fdeaf70a8b46de.html

Saludos.

Siguen escociendo los tres millones de parados y las vacantes de camareros sin cubrir. Pues no les queda na . Ni una palabra del precio de la vivienda, ni una palabra de que nadie quiere ir a trabajar a Ibiza o la Costa Brava para regalarle el sueldo a un rentista... Y del invierno demográfico lo único que mencionan son las pensiones.

¿No querían arreglar el paro? Que estén tranquilos entonces que con el invierno demográfico en pocos años lo tienen solucionado.

Y sobre las noticias del paro, habría que ver en qué medida ha bajado por la Gran Jubilación. Que está ahí, señoras y señores. Que nuestra pirámide de población está totalmente del revés. Que este día tenía que llegar. Y si aún no lo ha hecho, pues esto es el aperitivo así que imaginen el plato principal.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/07/29/62e386e8e5fdea7d1a8b46dd.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/politica/2022/07/29/62e3c9ab468aeb91498b46c6.html

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/07/29/62e42a46468aeb41148b45e3.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

De las innumerables opiniones sobre si USA está en recesión o no... desde Malasia. Es simplista echar la culpa a la administración Biden, pero más allá de las definiciones de recesión se impone la realidad económica percibida por la gente:

https://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/?p=218914

The US is in a recession, the economy has been shrinking all year

Tucker torches officials for redefining the word ‘recession’

It didn’t take long. It took, well, about a year and a half for the Biden administration to destroy the American economy and drive this nation into a recession. Now, the Biden administration won’t admit that we’re in a recession. In fact, they’ve actually redefined the word “recession” just as they’ve redefined the words “democracy,” “racism” and “woman,” but you don’t need to know what the word is to know what is happening. If you live here, you see it every single day.

We’re in a recession. The economy has been shrinking all year. Real wages are at record lows and at the same time, inflation is the highest it’s been in the lifetime of most Americans. So, call it whatever you want, but it’s a recession and it’s scary and they’re ignoring it. We’re going to spend the next hour investigating how exactly this happened. How did they tank the economy so fast and what does it mean?(...)

[Cadavre Exquis]

Como todos los sábados, Gabriel Trindade nos cuenta en el diario Expansión lo bien que va todo en el sector inmobiliario en lo que a la costa se refiere...

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional-sabado/20220730/page/28/textview

Saludos.

[pollo]

¿Cuántos "señores mayores" (ja!) a los que les están "haciendo favores" (ja ja!) habrá en los portales inmobiliarios? Quitenle un 30% a esos precios de oferta si quieren saber lo que hay de verdad.

No se vende nada y lo veo a diario. Los precios son de catálogo...todo lo que ha venido diciendo PPCC/Asustadísimos durante años es exacto, ajustado a la realidad.

Lo cual refuerza la idea de que al final, es una cuestión de tiempo y demografía. En algún momento llegará un punto de inflexión y empezará la avalancha.

[Benzino Napaloni]

¿Cuántos "señores mayores" (ja!) a los que les están "haciendo favores" (ja ja!) habrá en los portales inmobiliarios? Quitenle un 30% a esos precios de oferta si quieren saber lo que hay de verdad.

No se vende nada y lo veo a diario. Los precios son de catálogo...todo lo que ha venido diciendo PPCC/Asustadísimos durante años es exacto, ajustado a la realidad.

Lo cual refuerza la idea de que al final, es una cuestión de tiempo y demografía. En algún momento llegará un punto de inflexión y empezará la avalancha.

La curiosidad la tengo por la inflexión inmobiliaria. Porque la laboral ya está aquí. Si repiten como un mantra lo de los tres millones de parados es porque ya hay vacantes que no se cubren.

El tabú del precio de la vivienda es la clave. De momento algunos hoteles lo han maquillado en silencio dando ellos mismos habitaciones a sus trabajadores. Pero es eso, un simple parche.

No me extrañaría nada que hasta el último segundo intenten otra Sareb. Que el pepito o el bicho ya no puede pagarme lo que vale mi tesoro, pues que el Estado me pague la diferencia.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/energia/noticias/11889472/07/22/Asi-puede-ser-el-plan-de-ahorro-energetico-del-Gobierno.html

Saludos.