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https://stevesaretsky.substack.com/p/no-panacea
No Panacea
Happy Monday morning!
Housing affordability, or lack thereof, is all the rage these days. Politicians from every colour of the political rainbow are rallying around restoring some semblance of price stability, or so they say.
They’ve been working hard lately, through mass rezoning, tax breaks on new rental construction, and even housing catalogues. In fact, billions of dollars are being thrown at the problem.
How will we know if any of it worked? For most people they’d tell you housing affordability will have been achieved when prices are lower.
However, in a recent podcast interview with The Globe & Mail, Trudeau said the quiet part out loud.
For affordability to improve, do home prices have to come down?
“No. I think housing prices and houses will always be valuable in this country,” but “anyone who hopes for housing prices to remain on the kind of trajectory they’ve been on over the past decade or two should maybe think about what kind of society or world they want to live in.”
On the other hand, “housing needs to retain its value,” because “it’s a huge part of people’s potential for retirement and future and nest egg.”
In other words, everyone wants affordable housing but nobody wants their house to become affordable.
Trudeau just reiterated what we already knew. Housing is politically backstopped, and we must not jeopardize the 30 year bull market. After all, the tax free primary residence has become the defacto retirement plan for most boomers.
Inflating home prices have also been a boon for government coffers. The tax revenues derived from housing via capital gains taxes, property transfer taxes, development fees and property taxes are what underpin the entire system.
Trudeau’s freudian slip was an admission of what we already knew, maintaining home prices is a matter of national security.
So how else do we achieve housing affordability? We are told we can build our way out, yet housing starts are crashing as we speak, despite billions being thrown at municipalities to unlock zoning.
Over in the orange corner, Jagmeet says we should build affordable housing on all federally owned land. However, an analysis from the Globe & Mail this week highlights the grim reality.
Using the government’s federal registry of properties, The Globe identified federally-owned land that is at least half an acre in size, sitting vacant or occupied by a building not more than two storeys, and located in municipalities with at least 10,000 people.
After a months-long analysis, The Globe found 613 pieces of lazy land in cities and towns across the country – a collection of federal real estate large enough to create about 288,000 new housing units.
In other words, if we took all the under utilized federally owned land and redeveloped it for affordable housing we would create 288,000 new housing units which is the equivalent to just over a years worth of completions in any given year.
So now what?
If we could get incomes to rise faster than house prices, over a long enough period of time, housing could slowly get more affordable. But that is no quick fix, and everyone is looking for quick fixes.
The fact that real GDP per capita has now been declining for seven consecutive quarters isn’t helping that idea either. According to RBC we are now marred in what appears to be a lost decade.
People don’t like to hear this but there really is no panacea for housing in this country. This is just the uncomfortable truth.
Housing affordability will ultimately be achieved through some form of an exogenous shock outside of the governments control, creating a temporary over supply of housing and lower prices. Kind of like what we’re experiencing now with an inflationary shock that ripped interest rates higher and will probably keep them there for the foreseeable future, regardless of what the BoC does this week. ¡Sorpresa! 
 Al rico catálogo... para el niño y la niña Y no es solo la piña: fresas a 89 dólares, melones a 120 y cítricos japoneses a precio de oro ¿Merecen la pena? Esa es la gran pregunta y no hay mucha gente que la haya probado. Bo Corley un conocido chef e influencier sí que lo ha hecho y sostiene que, aunque está muy buena, no vale 400 dólares. Según su criterio, la piña genera un efecto wow: el color del producto es muy llamativo y el sabor está muy conseguido. Pero es solo una piña.
[Desde el 'éxito', ja, de la 1.ª alza explosiva de la burbuja popularcapitalista (1985-1989), que conllevó la caída del muro de Berlín y los sucesos de Tiananmén, el objetivo del anglo ha sido «evitar la aparición de un nuevo rival» (Doctrina Wolfowitz). Hoy podemos decir que el anglo ha conseguido su objetivo. En efecto, no le ha aparecido un nuevo rival. Le han aparecido dos docenas coordinadas, que suman la mitad de la población del mundo, y la UE le ha montado una moneda competidora cojonudísima. El 'euromaidán' antieuro ha sido la puntilla. La caída del modelito ochentero supone el nacimiento de un nuevo mundo multipolar y la rehispanización de América.]
Razonablemente conforme. Pongamos una raya: ‐-------------------------------- Vale... a partir de ya, el Sol sale para todos. * *) Para mí, lo anglos son como mucho, unos determinados financieros que ya pagarán lo que deben. Lo del Anglo, con mayúscula... en fin. 
No hombre, no.
La tenía, tengo y tendré yo.
Pero le permitiré que crea que la tenía vd. y que pague la cervezas.
-------- [ Ni que decir nada de las risas... ]
Yo creo que pronto habrá negociaciones.
Rusia se quedará lo rusófono invadido.
Ucrania entrará en la OTAN y la UE. Pero aún no, excepto si renuncian a la integridad territorial actual. Y tras muchas reformas económicas. Es decir, como hace ya un tiempo. Si, pero. A la cola.
Rusia "salva" a sus hijos. No les abandona por nada.
Todos hemos ganado la guerra. Hemos conquistado todos los objetivos militares.
Aquí paz y después Gloria.
Y sudden tendrá razón. ( Aunque el que la tenía era yo) 
Sds.
Tendré razón... y pagaré yo las cervezas. ------------- [ Las que nos vamos a beber... ]
Creo que lo voy pillando... Putin invade países, pero la otan también quiere. Y esa querencia es lo imperdonable. En fin...
[...] En general los economistas no ideologizados saben que Occidente está inmerso en una crisis de pauperización monumental desde hace unos 50 años.
Ni hablar Manu, eso no es así. Coge el europeo mediano --no medio--; y compáralo con el extranjero mediano --no medio--; que quieras. Haz la comparación en los terminos que quieras... a poder ser no te limites al ingreso mediano --en dólares--. Ganamos de calle. Es así. ------- La guerra de las narices. Es el Putinejo el que nos ha metido en ella. No nuestros gobernantes, por malos que te parezcan. Eligió el sátrapa de Putin, no nosotros. [ Que sólo podemos elegir el grado de su derrota. ]
NO SE OS PUEDE DEJAR SÓLOS... Je, je. Me ausento un rato... por (ciertas) necesidades, y sacáis to la chicha... de golpe. [...] O ES QUE NOS DA MIEDO A ESTAS ALTURAS PROVOCAR UNA RECESUON COMO HACE TIEMPONQUE NOS HACE FALTA?
PERO UNA DE VERDAD, NO LA LA MIERDA DE 2008-14.
Aquí no la pillas RGCIM... Los que quieren crisis son los malos. Piensa mal, o al berrés... Los pescadores a rio revuelto quieren crisis. (Pues que se jodan: trabajo y sólo trabajo paga deudas, Y de esas "saben" un rato esos pescaores de que te hablo.) [ Pista: to vabien. Emos ganao. Hellos an sio los engañados. ] [...] SUBID LOS PUTOS TIPOS HASTA QUE REVIENTE.
YA.
Síiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii.
 Martinis or rooms.
Bueno... Usando mi alternativa gratuita: PI... obtengo sobre el author: Based on a quick internet search, I can see that José Luis Cava seems to be a respected figure in the world of stock market and economic analysis. He is particularly known for his expertise in the Spanish stock market and has made some notable contributions to the field.
Cava appears to advocate for the importance of understanding market trends, staying informed, and being prepared for market collapses. He also emphasizes the value of studying past crises and comparing different markets, such as cryptocurrency, gold, and silver.
Overall, there seems to be a mix of opinions on Cava's stock market analysis, with some analysts providing positive forecasts for companies like CAVA Group, while others have a more cautious outlook. However, Cava's contributions to the field are widely recognized, and his insights are certainly worth considering for anyone interested in the stock market. Mi opinión sobre el título. (Todo el texto que hay.) Título: Las subidas de tipos de interés benefician a los jubilados y perjudican a los jovenes. Mi opinión a vuelapluma: hummmm... Véase: El 40% de las pensiones en Navarra están por debajo de los 800 euros, según CC OOhttps://www.diariodenavarra.es/noticias/navarra/2021/02/23/40-pensiones-navarra-estan-por-debajo-800-euros-segun-oo-718167-300.htmlCasi el 40% de los jubilados malagueños cobran menos de 10.000 euros al año de pensiónhttps://www.malagahoy.es/malaga/jubilados-malaguenos-cobran-ano-pension_0_1311169216.html
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