PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Verano 2012

[mowin]

Perdón por la autocita, pero ahora ya entiendo el porqué.

Guindos controlará la reestructuración de la banca dejando al margen al Banco de España El ministro de Economía y Competitividad se asegura el control de la reordenación financiera al brindar al FROB plenos poderes para supervisar, reestructurar o liquidar. Deja de lado al Banco de España tras haber reforzado al fondo con sus hombres de confianza y haber fichado a inspectores.  Antonio Maqueda (13:25)                                 Foto:EFE    El ministro de Economía ha tomado todo el control de la resolución de la crisis del sistema financiero. El Fondo de Reestructuración Ordenada Bancaria tendrá la última palabra a la hora de intervenir, liquidar o reestructurar entidades. Y este organismo ha sido reforzado durante el último mes con personas que cuentan con la confianza plena de Luis de Guindos.
Por un lado, es lógico que el ministro ejerza el control cuando va a poner la pasta, explican fuentes del sector financiero. El mismo FMI le recomendaba en su informe sobre el sistema bancario español que emplease al Frob como el instrumento de resolución de la crisis. Y algunos de los consultores externos contratados le urgían a que el Frob desempeñase un papel más activo y no fuera un mero inversor.
Pero, por otro lado, estas mismas fuentes apuntan a que Guindos quiere evitar que se repita el caso de Bankia. El ministro exigió entonces al Banco de España que interviniese la entidad. Pero el gobernador Fernández Ordóñez se negó. Desde ahora, Guindos ejercerá una potestad que sólo correspondía al organismo supervisor e independiente.
Por supuesto que se necesitará la expertise del Banco de España en todo el proceso. Pero algunas fuentes señalan que este paso se trata del último de una serie en la que Guindos ha ido dejando a un lado al Banco sito en Cibeles y externalizando o incluso duplicando su trabajo. No en vano, el titular de Economía ha utilizado ya hasta catorce empresas privadas con el fin de tasar, auditar, estresar y asesorar.
El gabinete de asesores del Ministerio de Economía se ha visto reforzado con la contratación de un inspector del banco de España que trata con la Autoridad Bancaria Europea y el FMI. Y el Frob ha apuntalado su escasa estructura. Antonio Carrascosa, hasta hace poco director general de Política Económica del Ministerio y hombre muy cercano a Guindos, fue nombrado director general del Frob el 6 de julio. Y a éste se le han sumado tres directores ejecutivos: el inspector Pedro Comín, el antiguo interventor del BdE, Antonio Rosas, y Alfonso Cárcamo, recomendado por el subgobernador del Banco de España, Fernando Restoy, y procedente de la CNMV, donde tuvo que lidiar con las preferentes.
El organigrama del Frob se completa con cuatro inspectores y los nueve miembros de la comisión rectora. Este equipo muy pequeño y controlado por Luis de Guindos llevará el peso de la reordenación bancaria, tras haberle restado peso al Banco de España.
   URL:  [url=http://vozpopuli.com/nacional/13078-guindos-controlara-la-reestructuracion-de-la-banca-dejando-al-margen-al-banco-de-espana]http://vozpopuli.com/nacional/13078-guindos-controlara-la-reestructuracion-de-la-banca-dejando-al-margen-al-banco-de-espana   [/url]

Pues para haber sido nombrado el 6 de julio, se publica hoy con fecha de 7 de septiembre, en el BOE.

Real Decreto 1300/2012, de 7 de septiembre, por el que se nombra Director General del Fondo de Reestructuración Ordenada Bancaria a don Antonio Carrascosa Morales.



Y hablando de nombramientos
Real Decreto 1297/2012, de 7 de septiembre, por el que se nombra Directora de la Oficina Española de Patentes y Marcas a doña Patricia García-Escudero Márquez.

Dejen de buscar parentescos ¿eh?

[CdE]

Y hablando de nombramientos

Real Decreto 1297/2012, de 7 de septiembre, por el que se nombra Directora de la Oficina Española de Patentes y Marcas a doña Patricia García-Escudero Márquez.

Dejen de buscar parentescos ¿eh?

Otra de las hermanas, Catalina García-Escudero y Marquez está casada con el (presunto) blanqueador Gabriel Pretus Labayen (Casos Suéter y Pretoria derivados del BBV Privanza)


http://www.geneall.net/H/per_page.php?id=1599508


El caso BBVA Privanza es el origen de, al menos, 3 grandes operaciones contra el blanqueo:

1.- Suéter (Banco Espíritu Santo, Cartera Meridional, Cahispa y el bufete de los hermanos Francisco Javier y Gabriel Pretus Labayen).

2.- Gürtel (Clan Becerril-Partido Popular, Correa y De Miguel & Abogados).

3.- Pretoria (otra vez el bufete de los hermanos Francisco Javier y Gabriel Pretus Labayen).


Operación Gürtel (I) « ciudadanos de espartinas - La Coctelera

Operación Pretoria (I) « ciudadanos de espartinas - La Coctelera

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

Y esto coincide con el artículo anti-BdE de ayer en Voz Populi ("el BdE sabía de toda la basura de Bankia pero no hizo nada y siguió con la patada p'alante").

Aparte del Bankia-exculpismo, no sabía si interpretarlo como andanada contra MAFO o contra el BdE en pleno.

Parece que era andanada contra el BdE en pleno (lo que es injusto, a sus trabajadores no se les hizo ni caso) para dar apoyos a De FROBGuindos.

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

Artículo muy interesante sobre el iceberg deflacionario de un invitado en la web de John Mauldin.

A Decade of Volatility: Demographics, Debt, and Deflation
By Harry S. Dent, Jr., author of The Great Crash Ahead and editor of Boom & Bust

Most of you reading this expect inflation in the years ahead, right? Well, I don't. In fact, I am firmly in the deflation camp.

Just think about it. What has happened after every major debt bubble in history? What happened after the 1873-74 bubble? Or after the 1929-32 bubble? Did prices inflate or deflate?

We got deflation in prices… every time.

This time around, with the latest bubble peaking in 2007/08, the outcome will be exactly the same. There is deflation ahead. Expect it. Prepare for it.

But the bubble-bust cycle that history has allowed us to see is not the only reason I'm so certain we're heading for deflation and a great crash ahead. I have other, irrefutable evidence…

For one, there is the most powerful economic force on Earth: demographics. More specifically, the power of the number 46. You see, that's the age at which the average household peaks in spending.

When the average kid is born, the average parent is 28. They buy their first home when they're 31… after they had those kids. When the kids age into nasty teenagers, the parents buy a bigger house so they can have space. They do this between the ages of 37 and 42. Their mortgage debt peaks at age 41. And like I said, their spending peaks at around 46.

From cradle to grave, people do predictable things… and we can see these trends clearly in different sectors of our economy, from housing to investing, borrowing and spending, decades in advance.



This demographic cycle made the crash in the '30s and the slowdown in the '70s unavoidable. Now it is happening again... with the biggest generation in history – the Baby Boomers.

Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of our gross domestic product (GDP). So knowing when people are going to spend more or less is an incredibly powerful tool to have. It tells you, with uncanny accuracy, when economies will grow or slow.

Why Deflation Is the Endgame

Think of it this way: the government is hellbent on inflating. It's doing so by creating debt through its quantitative easing programs (just for starters). But what's the private sector doing? It's deflating.

And the private sector is definitely the elephant in the room. How much private debt did we have at the top of the bubble? $42 trillion. How much public debt did we have back then? $14 trillion.

That looks like a no-brainer to me. Private outweighs public three to one. And the private sector is deleveraging as fast as it can, just like what happened in the 1870s and 1930s. History shows us that the private sector always ends up winning the inflation-deflation fight.

Now, I will concede that this is an unprecedented time. Today governments around the world have both the tools and the determination to fight deflation. And they are desperate to keep it at bay because they know how nasty it is (they, too, are students of history).

How bad is it? Think of deflation like what your body would do with bad sushi. It would flush it out as fast as possible. That's what our system is trying to do with all the debt we accumulated during the boom years. It's what the system did in the 1930s. Back then we went from almost 200% debt-to-GDP to just 50% in three years. It hurt like hell. The government doesn't want this painful deleveraging.

The problem is, the longer the government tries to fight this bad sushi, the sicklier the system becomes. I know this because it's what happened to Japan…

Japan's bubble peaked in the '80s. When the unavoidable deleveraging process began, the country did everything in its power to stop it. How is Japan doing today, 20 years after its crash? It is still at rock bottom. Its stock market is still down 75%.

Japan has gone through everything we'll go through in the next few years. Does Japan have an inflation problem? That's a rhetorical question. Did its central bank stimulate frantically? Also a rhetorical question.

Think of it another way: what is the biggest single cost of living today? Is it gold? Oil? Food? It's none of these. It is housing. And what is housing doing? Dropping like a rock. It can't muster a bounce, despite the lowest mortgage rates in history and the strongest stimulus programs anywhere… ever.

The Fed is fighting deflation purposely. It will fail.

Why the Fed Will Fail in All Its Efforts

There is simply no way the Fed can win the battle it's currently waging against deflation, because there are 76 million Baby Boomers who increasingly want to save, not spend. Old people don't buy houses!

At the top of the housing boom in recent years, we had the typical upper-middle-class family living in a 4,000-square-foot McMansion. About ten years from now, what will they do? They'll downsize to a 2,000-square-foot townhouse. What do they need all those bedrooms for? The kids are gone. They don't visit anymore. Ten years after that, where are they? They're in 200-square-foot nursing home. Ten years later, where are they? They're in a 20-square-foot grave plot.

That's the future of real estate. That's why real estate has not bounced in Japan after 21 years. That's why it won't bounce here in the US either. For every young couple that gets married, has babies, and buys a house, there's an older couple moving into a nursing home or dying.

I watch this same demographic force move through and affect every other sector of the economy. The tool I use to do so is my Spending Wave. This is a 46-year leading indicator with a predictable peak in spending of the average household.



Here's how it works: the red background in the chart above is the Dow, adjusted for inflation. The blue line is the spending wave, including immigration-adjusted births and lagged by 46 years to indicate peak spending. If you ask me, that correlation is striking.

The Baby Boom birth index above started to rise in 1937. It continued to rise until 1961 before it fell. Add 46 to 1937, and you get a boom that starts in 1983. Add 46 to 61, and you get a boom that ends in 2007.

Today demographics matters more than ever because of the 76 million Baby Boomers moving through the economy. That's why I don't watch governments until they start reacting in desperation. Then I adjust my forecasts accordingly.

Don't Hold Your Breath for the Echo Boomer Generation

But all this talk about Baby Boomers inevitably births the question: "Surely the Echo Boom generation is coming up right behind their parents. They'll fill the holes, right?"

Let me make this clear. If I hear one more nutcase on CNBC say, "The Echo Boom generation is bigger than the Baby Boom," I might go ballistic. They are wrong. The Echo Boomer generation is NOT bigger than the Baby Boom generation. In fact, it's the first generation in history that's not larger than its predecessor is, even when accounting for immigrants.

It's not all doom and gloom, though. We will see another boom around 2020-23. But for now, all the Western countries will slow, thanks to the downward demographic trend sweeping the world. Some are slowing faster than others are. For example, Japan is slowing the fastest (it actually committed demographic kamikaze, but that's a discussion for another day). Southern Europe is next along in its decline. Eastern Europe, Russia, and Asia are following quickly behind.

Which brings me back to my point: there is no threat of serious inflation ahead. Rather, deflation is the order of the day. The Fed thinks it can prevent a crash by getting people to spend. To that I say, "Good luck." Old people don't spend money. They bribe the grandkids, and they go on cruises where they just stuff themselves with food and booze.

Do you know how to tell if you're buying a car from an older person? It's going to be ten years old and have only 40,000 miles on it. They drive 4,000 miles a year. They just go down the street to get a Starbucks coffee and a newspaper. Then they go back home. How do you know you're buying a car from a soccer mom? It's driven 20,000 miles a year, carting the kids around all day… to school, soccer practice, whatever. This is the power of demographics.

So let me tell you what causes inflation. It's young people. Young people cause inflation. They cost everything and produce nothing. That's inflation in people terms.

Why did we have high inflation in the '70s? Because Baby Boomers were in school, drinking, spending their parents' money. While this was going on, we experienced the lowest-productivity decade in the last century.

Do you remember the 1970s? We had worsening recessions as the old Bob Hope generation began to save more while the Baby Boomers entered the economy en masse… at great expense. It costs a lot of money to incorporate young people, raise them, and put them into the workforce.

Then suddenly, in the early '80s, like some political genius did something brilliant, the economy started growing like crazy, and inflation fell. You know what that was? That was the largest generation in history transitioning en masse from being expensive, rebellious, young people to highly productive yuppies with young new families. It was the move from cocaine to Rogaine.

The correlation between labor force growth and inflation is crystal clear…



When lots of young people come into the labor force, it's inflationary. When lots of old people move out of the labor force and into retirement, it's deflationary. Right now, where is the highest inflation in the world? It's in emerging countries. Do they have more old people or young people? They have more young people.

We saw it in the 1970s, we see it in emerging markets, and we'll see it ahead as the Baby Boomers head off into the sunset. First, there was inflation. Ahead is deflation. No doubt about it.

http://www.mauldineconomics.com

[Karunel]

Sensacional artículo, gracias por traerlo.

[Republik]

Artículo muy interesante sobre el iceberg deflacionario de un invitado en la web de John Mauldin.

A Decade of Volatility: Demographics, Debt, and Deflation
By Harry S. Dent, Jr., author of The Great Crash Ahead and editor of Boom & Bust

Most of you reading this expect inflation in the years ahead, right? Well, I don't. In fact, I am firmly in the deflation camp.

Just think about it. What has happened after every major debt bubble in history? What happened after the 1873-74 bubble? Or after the 1929-32 bubble? Did prices inflate or deflate?

We got deflation in prices… every time.

This time around, with the latest bubble peaking in 2007/08, the outcome will be exactly the same. There is deflation ahead. Expect it. Prepare for it.

But the bubble-bust cycle that history has allowed us to see is not the only reason I'm so certain we're heading for deflation and a great crash ahead. I have other, irrefutable evidence…

For one, there is the most powerful economic force on Earth: demographics. More specifically, the power of the number 46. You see, that's the age at which the average household peaks in spending.

When the average kid is born, the average parent is 28. They buy their first home when they're 31… after they had those kids. When the kids age into nasty teenagers, the parents buy a bigger house so they can have space. They do this between the ages of 37 and 42. Their mortgage debt peaks at age 41. And like I said, their spending peaks at around 46.

From cradle to grave, people do predictable things… and we can see these trends clearly in different sectors of our economy, from housing to investing, borrowing and spending, decades in advance.



This demographic cycle made the crash in the '30s and the slowdown in the '70s unavoidable. Now it is happening again... with the biggest generation in history – the Baby Boomers.

Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of our gross domestic product (GDP). So knowing when people are going to spend more or less is an incredibly powerful tool to have. It tells you, with uncanny accuracy, when economies will grow or slow.

Why Deflation Is the Endgame

Think of it this way: the government is hellbent on inflating. It's doing so by creating debt through its quantitative easing programs (just for starters). But what's the private sector doing? It's deflating.

And the private sector is definitely the elephant in the room. How much private debt did we have at the top of the bubble? $42 trillion. How much public debt did we have back then? $14 trillion.

That looks like a no-brainer to me. Private outweighs public three to one. And the private sector is deleveraging as fast as it can, just like what happened in the 1870s and 1930s. History shows us that the private sector always ends up winning the inflation-deflation fight.

Now, I will concede that this is an unprecedented time. Today governments around the world have both the tools and the determination to fight deflation. And they are desperate to keep it at bay because they know how nasty it is (they, too, are students of history).

How bad is it? Think of deflation like what your body would do with bad sushi. It would flush it out as fast as possible. That's what our system is trying to do with all the debt we accumulated during the boom years. It's what the system did in the 1930s. Back then we went from almost 200% debt-to-GDP to just 50% in three years. It hurt like hell. The government doesn't want this painful deleveraging.

The problem is, the longer the government tries to fight this bad sushi, the sicklier the system becomes. I know this because it's what happened to Japan…

Japan's bubble peaked in the '80s. When the unavoidable deleveraging process began, the country did everything in its power to stop it. How is Japan doing today, 20 years after its crash? It is still at rock bottom. Its stock market is still down 75%.

Japan has gone through everything we'll go through in the next few years. Does Japan have an inflation problem? That's a rhetorical question. Did its central bank stimulate frantically? Also a rhetorical question.

Think of it another way: what is the biggest single cost of living today? Is it gold? Oil? Food? It's none of these. It is housing. And what is housing doing? Dropping like a rock. It can't muster a bounce, despite the lowest mortgage rates in history and the strongest stimulus programs anywhere… ever.

The Fed is fighting deflation purposely. It will fail.

Why the Fed Will Fail in All Its Efforts

There is simply no way the Fed can win the battle it's currently waging against deflation, because there are 76 million Baby Boomers who increasingly want to save, not spend. Old people don't buy houses!

At the top of the housing boom in recent years, we had the typical upper-middle-class family living in a 4,000-square-foot McMansion. About ten years from now, what will they do? They'll downsize to a 2,000-square-foot townhouse. What do they need all those bedrooms for? The kids are gone. They don't visit anymore. Ten years after that, where are they? They're in 200-square-foot nursing home. Ten years later, where are they? They're in a 20-square-foot grave plot.

That's the future of real estate. That's why real estate has not bounced in Japan after 21 years. That's why it won't bounce here in the US either. For every young couple that gets married, has babies, and buys a house, there's an older couple moving into a nursing home or dying.

I watch this same demographic force move through and affect every other sector of the economy. The tool I use to do so is my Spending Wave. This is a 46-year leading indicator with a predictable peak in spending of the average household.



Here's how it works: the red background in the chart above is the Dow, adjusted for inflation. The blue line is the spending wave, including immigration-adjusted births and lagged by 46 years to indicate peak spending. If you ask me, that correlation is striking.

The Baby Boom birth index above started to rise in 1937. It continued to rise until 1961 before it fell. Add 46 to 1937, and you get a boom that starts in 1983. Add 46 to 61, and you get a boom that ends in 2007.

Today demographics matters more than ever because of the 76 million Baby Boomers moving through the economy. That's why I don't watch governments until they start reacting in desperation. Then I adjust my forecasts accordingly.

Don't Hold Your Breath for the Echo Boomer Generation

But all this talk about Baby Boomers inevitably births the question: "Surely the Echo Boom generation is coming up right behind their parents. They'll fill the holes, right?"

Let me make this clear. If I hear one more nutcase on CNBC say, "The Echo Boom generation is bigger than the Baby Boom," I might go ballistic. They are wrong. The Echo Boomer generation is NOT bigger than the Baby Boom generation. In fact, it's the first generation in history that's not larger than its predecessor is, even when accounting for immigrants.

It's not all doom and gloom, though. We will see another boom around 2020-23. But for now, all the Western countries will slow, thanks to the downward demographic trend sweeping the world. Some are slowing faster than others are. For example, Japan is slowing the fastest (it actually committed demographic kamikaze, but that's a discussion for another day). Southern Europe is next along in its decline. Eastern Europe, Russia, and Asia are following quickly behind.

Which brings me back to my point: there is no threat of serious inflation ahead. Rather, deflation is the order of the day. The Fed thinks it can prevent a crash by getting people to spend. To that I say, "Good luck." Old people don't spend money. They bribe the grandkids, and they go on cruises where they just stuff themselves with food and booze.

Do you know how to tell if you're buying a car from an older person? It's going to be ten years old and have only 40,000 miles on it. They drive 4,000 miles a year. They just go down the street to get a Starbucks coffee and a newspaper. Then they go back home. How do you know you're buying a car from a soccer mom? It's driven 20,000 miles a year, carting the kids around all day… to school, soccer practice, whatever. This is the power of demographics.

So let me tell you what causes inflation. It's young people. Young people cause inflation. They cost everything and produce nothing. That's inflation in people terms.

Why did we have high inflation in the '70s? Because Baby Boomers were in school, drinking, spending their parents' money. While this was going on, we experienced the lowest-productivity decade in the last century.

Do you remember the 1970s? We had worsening recessions as the old Bob Hope generation began to save more while the Baby Boomers entered the economy en masse… at great expense. It costs a lot of money to incorporate young people, raise them, and put them into the workforce.

Then suddenly, in the early '80s, like some political genius did something brilliant, the economy started growing like crazy, and inflation fell. You know what that was? That was the largest generation in history transitioning en masse from being expensive, rebellious, young people to highly productive yuppies with young new families. It was the move from cocaine to Rogaine.

The correlation between labor force growth and inflation is crystal clear…



When lots of young people come into the labor force, it's inflationary. When lots of old people move out of the labor force and into retirement, it's deflationary. Right now, where is the highest inflation in the world? It's in emerging countries. Do they have more old people or young people? They have more young people.

We saw it in the 1970s, we see it in emerging markets, and we'll see it ahead as the Baby Boomers head off into the sunset. First, there was inflation. Ahead is deflation. No doubt about it.

http://www.mauldineconomics.com

Interesantísimo, además está relacionado con el temible efecto derretimiento en los mercados financieros cuando la demografía se invierte y son más los ancianos sacando que los jóvenes metiendo dinero: esto agravado por las "saturnales" que también se han dado en los EEUU, donde los 20-30añeros viven peor que sus padres a su edad pese a todo lo que "ha crecido" el PIB.  Los planes privados de pensiones van a sufrir una dura prueba y la cosa empezará hacia 2.020. Y ojo que la SS americana es titular de bonos del Tesoro por importe de más del 40% del PIB americano.

También enlaza con lo que apuntaba ayer Wanderer respecto a la visible prolongación de las ondas largas de Kondratief al calor de la prolongación de la esperanza de vida.

Una cosa que echo de menos en la "escalera vital" es el escalón del "divorcio"  (afecta a más de la mitad de la gente) y su repercusión sobre el ahorro neto, quizá es que como en los EEUU son muy amigos del matrimonio, todos los divorciados se recasan cancelando mutuamente el efecto.

[dmar]

So let me tell you what causes inflation. It's young people. Young people cause inflation. They cost everything and produce nothing. That's inflation in people terms.

Esto es genial.  Explica el drama de mi generación.

Necesitamos la intervención divina a favor de nuestras huestes. Santiago en caballo blanco, el Cid matando moros ya fiambre. No quiero ser de la guardia que guía al pueblo a través del desierto y no se le concede entrar en la tierra prometida.

Necesitamos ese caballo blanco o cisne negro.  Yo me veo impotente para otra cosa que no sea largarme.  Y me cuesta.

Ayer vimos el enroque cerril del Presidente Rajoy.  Vimos que ha optado por hacer como que no existe la realidad: la de la crisis, la de Europa, la del punhcazo inmobiliario y la de la gente en la calle que le vilipendia.

Aún no hemos visto nada.  Van a defenderse con uñas y dientes y van a hacer daño a mucha gente en el proceso.  Me temo que vamos a ver cosas que nuestros yos del pasado no creerían.  Miedo.

[chameleon]

recordemos que lo que en USA llaman babyboom, en españa es la generación yeye

[Xoshe]

El Pacífico se calienta. No creo que lleguemos al incidente polaco pero lo posteo. Todo va en la dirección prevista. ¡Qué casualidad!
http://www.diplonews.com/feeds/free/11_September_2012_16.php
Japon y  China a la greña.

[Starkiller]

recordemos que lo que en USA llaman babyboom, en españa es la generación yeye

AKA "Los imbéciles que corrieron delante de los grises".

[pringaete]

http://www.casastristes.org/es/content/burbuja-usa-vs-spain

[sincriterio]

El Pacífico se calienta. No creo que lleguemos al incidente polaco pero lo posteo. Todo va en la dirección prevista. ¡Qué casualidad!
http://www.diplonews.com/feeds/free/11_September_2012_16.php
Japon y  China a la greña.

Llevan todo el verano con la martingala de las islas.

martingala.

(Del fr. martingale).

1. f. Artificio o astucia para engañar a alguien, o para otro fin.

2. f. Lance en el juego del monte, que consiste en apuntar simultáneamente a tres de las cartas del albur y el gallo contra la restante.

http://espanol.cntv.cn/20120911/104609.shtml

http://search.cntv.cn/espanol/index.shtml?qtext=Islas%20Diaoyu.

[wanderer]

Artículo muy interesante sobre el iceberg deflacionario de un invitado en la web de John Mauldin.

http://www.mauldineconomics.com

Pues vaya, ppcc siempre ha sostenido que la poca inflación que fuera a haber en la Era Cero se la iban a comer los US, y parece que ni ésos.

Y si hablamos de nuestra "pirámide" poblaciona (más bien, trapezoide invertido), ya el asunto se convierte en algo de aurora boreal...

[tomasjos]

El Pacífico se calienta. No creo que lleguemos al incidente polaco pero lo posteo. Todo va en la dirección prevista. ¡Qué casualidad!
http://www.diplonews.com/feeds/free/11_September_2012_16.php
Japon y  China a la greña.

Hay mucho petróleo en esa zona. Fíjense que este casus belli se acerca mucho al que propone Huntington en "Choque de civilizaciones".

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

Pues vaya, ppcc siempre ha sostenido que la poca inflación que fuera a haber en la Era Cero se la iban a comer los US, y parece que ni ésos.

Y si hablamos de nuestra pirámide poblacional, ya el asunto se convierte en algo de aurora boreal...

"Se la iban a comer" no, se la comen.

Según ppcc, lo normal es tener inflación y posterior devaluación (por ejemplo, España con la peseta), pero ése no sería el caso estadounidense. En EEUU habría (está habiendo) primero devaluación (que equivale a importar inflación), que luego iría seguida de inflación y recesión.

Algunas citas de ppcc de 2007 (modo BLICHON = on  ):

el problema de EEUU es que, tras la devaluación, viene la inflación y la recesión; el problema de la UE es que, aquí, habrá lo contrario: sobrevaloración del euro y deflación. 5) Por lo que acabo de decir, quizá, ayer L.A. Rojo en Zaragoza dijo que EUROPA NO VA A TOMAR RELEVO A EEUU COMO LOCOMOTORA CREDITO CONSUMISTA MUNDIAL; en la UE, los tipos de interés están llegando a lo máximo que pueden llegar, aunque al proceso le queden cinco trimestres (precisamente, los están subiendo, para tener munición monetaria ante lo que viene).

La devaluación (o pérdida de poder adquisitivo) de la moneda en la que tienes que pagar tus deudas es una artimaña para devolver menos de lo que te han prestado. La devaluación y la inflación (tanto monta) trasladan la carga de la deuda del prestatario al prestamista.

EEUU es un país superendeudado con el exterior y que, además, podría y debería producir más para exportar (e importar menos). Desde Nixon, el mundo se ha llenado de dólares. La cotización del dólar se mantiene, también, porque sus acreedores así lo quieren.

¿Hacia donde va el dólar?. Blanco y en botella. Lo que no sabemos es cuándo exactamente, aunque...

Hay quien dice que las subidas de tipos de interés de Trichet solo tienen dos finalidades: pinchar burbujas (que traducidas a dólares son superburbujas) y tener municición para cuando el dólar meta el tirón para abajo.

Este ambiente NO es bueno, en general, para las bolsas europeas. Conforme se devalua el dólar, más queda en evidencia la sobrevaloración de los activos denominados en euros y más probable se hace el ajuste valorativo. Sin embargo, las empresas europeas cotizadas cuya actividad económica está "dolarizada" tienen permanentemente medio hechos los deberes, si se me permite la expresión. Y, en el país de los ciegos, el tuerto es el rey.

Pensemos en la libra esterlina. Le pasa lo mismo que al dólar y, además, que una devaluación importante podría favorecer un escenario de ingreso en la eurozona. Miel sobre hojuelas.

A la lista de empresas dolarizadas hay que añadir, pues, las libraesterlinizadas.

Ahora, reflexionen acerca de nuestras empresas.

En España, hemos sido tan poco sensatos con la estabilidad monetaria que nos han regalado con el euro, que, ahora, tenemos tanta ansiedad con la cuestión inmobiliaria e hipotecaria que no vemos la que puede estar avecinándose en materia cambiaria.

- Devaluación e inflación van de la mano. Tanto monta.

- No hay nada más deflacionista que el endeudamiento (deuda es lo contrario que crédito... cuanta más endeudado estás, menos crédito tienes). Los americanos están superendeudados. Son zombies. La inflación y la devaluación moderaría el peso de la deuda interna y externa desplazándolo hacia los prestamistas.

- El debate sobre la deflación, que estuvo tan en boga hace poco, no ha sido cerrado. Sólo ha sido pospuesto mediante triquiñuelas políticas, "guerras keynesianas", incluidas.

- No hay forma de administrar el inmenso déficit por cuenta corriente americano sin devaluación de la moneda.

- El que, además de déficit por cuenta corriente, haya déficit fiscal ("twin deficit") hace que la recesión económica sea inevitable en EEUU, dada la realimentación del proceso una vez que se ponga a corregir.

- El que la recesión se convierta o no en una depresión, es harina de otro costal. En cualquier caso, esta vez, la recesión conlleva una crisis estructural muy importante.

- Lo ideal es que la recesión fuera selectiva, concentrada en lo que llamamos "los casinos", o sea, los negocietes piramidales: carry trade e inmobiliario. Así nos lo han hecho saber las autoridades americanas aprovechando que la Bolsa corregía.

- La devaluación asegura la importación de inflación (si es que no es el mismo fenómeno), lo que es muy interesante cuando estamos en recesión, para compensar la deflación.

- Podría haber una avalancaha tal de dólares que las autoridades americanas deberían estar preparadas para "destruirlos"; o sea, exactamente, lo contrario de lo que llevan haciendo medio siglo.

- En la Eurozona somos amigos de los americanos, por lo tanto, estamos subiendo los tipos con cuidado para no dañar nada pero tener munición cuando el dólar tenga que tragar su cáliz amargo y ayudar.

- Hay quien dice que vamos a ver 2 dólares por un euro.

- Conforme se va devaluando el dólar y EEUU se vaya metiendo en el crash inmobiliario, ¿qué pensará un ciudadano, pongamos por caso, de Richmond, cuando le presentamos el precio del metro cuadrado del pisito español?. La argumentación sirve para cualquier activo no denominado en dólares. Por contra, el metro cuadrado de la 5ª con la 56 (Trump Tower) le parecerá regalado al flamante inversor de las Astrocs, Metrovacesas, Montebalitos, etc., ¿o no?.

- Lo dicho para el dólar y EEUU es trasladable a la libra y a UK, con la diferencia de que éstas tienen otra salida que parece olvidada: su entrada en el euro.

- El telón de fondo bajista del dólar comenzó seriamente... ¡en los 70s!. Estamos asistiendo al proceso de finalización de su hegemonía; hegemonía que se remonta a los acuerdos del hotel Mount Washington, en Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, en el verano del 44.

- Un barril de petróleo caro ayudaría a combatir la deflación... y a empeorar las balanzas de pagos, p.e., de Alemania, China, etc., lo que no le vendría mal al proceso de purga del dólar.

- En este sentido, ¿qué petroleras tienen los alemanes?.

en las últimas tres décadas se han producido dos graves crisis del sistema financiero español: una a finales de los 70 y otra a comienzos de los 90 (coincidiendo con burbujas inmobiliarias) . las anteriores se sortearon porque había peseta, es decir, los políticos tenían el control del un banco central que a base de devaluaciones brutales consiguió medio reconducir la situación, dejando, eso sí, millones de parados por el camino. esta vez, con euro y bce, no tienen el control suficiente para autosacarse las castañas del fuego, y vamos hacia una crisis mitad japonesa (devaluación salvaje de activos) mitad argentina (megadeuda externa) .