www.transicionestructural.NET es un nuevo foro, que a partir del 25/06/2012 se ha separado de su homónimo .COM. No se compartirán nuevos mensajes o usuarios a partir de dicho día.
0 Usuarios y 5 Visitantes están viendo este tema.
https://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2021-10-11/premio-nobel-salario-minimo-destruccion-empleo_3304909/CitarAsí demostró el premio Nobel de Economía que el salario mínimo no destruye empleoDavid Card estudió en 1992 el efecto del alza del SMI en los restaurantes de comida rápida de Nueva Jersey. El estado creó empleo y los salarios subieron, pero también el precio del menúEl uso del verbo "demostrar" en ciencias sociales es muy particular, pero se insiste en colocarlo en titulares de prensa y conversaciones de cuñaos
Así demostró el premio Nobel de Economía que el salario mínimo no destruye empleoDavid Card estudió en 1992 el efecto del alza del SMI en los restaurantes de comida rápida de Nueva Jersey. El estado creó empleo y los salarios subieron, pero también el precio del menú
Cita de: Rocoso en Octubre 11, 2021, 18:52:42 pm¿Es la Economista Jefe del Banco Mundial un gancho del timo?¿Tú qué crees?
¿Es la Economista Jefe del Banco Mundial un gancho del timo?
...Para mí que soy matemático la palabra demostrar nunca debe ser usada en vano...Si hubiera dicho mostrar, lo podría aceptar; demostrar es una afirmación seria y categórica, y si ni siquiera en Física es posible hacerlo (y en eso, pues la mayoría de los físicos lo admiten), pues mucho menos en ciencias sociales.Cuanta fatuidad...
El 'escape room' de IdealistaBuscar piso de alquiler en una gran ciudad es, por encima de todas las cosas, una tarea humillante. Hay pisos en los que te piden un mes corriente, un mes de agencia, dos meses de fianza y cuarenta meses de dignidad propia. Todo a depositar antes de la entrada(...)Luego está lo de ser propietario de una vivienda que en España se ha convertido ya en una especie de club privado con membrete genealógico. La probabilidad de que alguien sea propietario aumenta si sus padres también lo fueron. Y la probabilidad de comprar un piso aumenta, o directamente depende, de que tus padres te puedan pagar la entrada. Tener una vivienda en propiedad continúa siendo una de las formas más importantes de transmitir riqueza. Así que, hasta que esto cambie, el círculo de la desigualdad seguirá aumentando en función de cómo han vivido nuestros padres y de las condiciones en las que podemos vivir nosotros.
Cita de: wanderer en Octubre 11, 2021, 22:44:45 pm...Para mí que soy matemático la palabra demostrar nunca debe ser usada en vano...Si hubiera dicho mostrar, lo podría aceptar; demostrar es una afirmación seria y categórica, y si ni siquiera en Física es posible hacerlo (y en eso, pues la mayoría de los físicos lo admiten), pues mucho menos en ciencias sociales.Cuanta fatuidad...No por ser tocapelotas y con todo el respeto, Wanderer, pero tampoco hay que dejarles a los matematicos o logicos formales la exclusiva de dar significado a las palabras. Con la excepción de Humpty Dumpty? En ciencias sociales se acepta como demostrado algo cuando hay un cierto grado de significancia estadística. Como en un juicio se demuestra algo cuando no hay dudas razonables. Tampoco hay que tirarse del pelo. Los economistas académicos convencionales defendían como un dogma de fe que los salarios mínimos (o su incremento) siempre aumentan el desempleo, igual que los techos de alquileres disminuyen la oferta y calidad de vivienda. Card trata de demostrar - y lo consigue - que no se puede afirmar que eso sea cierto siempre. Y lo prueba a sensu contrario, con un ejemplo muy sencillo. Hay un estado americano en el que esto no ha pasado.
Evergrande misses 3rd round of bond coupon payments, intensifying contagion fearsHONG KONG (Reuters) -China Evergrande Group on Tuesday missed its third round of bond payments in three weeks, intensifying market fears over contagion involving other property developers as a wall of debt payment obligations come due in the near-term.Some bondholders said they did not receive coupon payments totalling $148 million on Evergrande’s April 2022, April 2023 and April 2024 notes due by 0400 GMT on Tuesday, following two other payments it missed in September.That puts investors at risk of large losses at the end of 30-day grace periods as the developer wrestles with more than $300 billion in liabilities.Evergrande did not immediately respond to a request for comment.A total of $101.2 billion bonds issued by Chinese developers will be due in the next year, Refinitiv data show.“We see more defaults ahead if the liquidity problem does not improve markedly,” said brokerage CGS-CIMB in a note, adding developers with weaker credit rating are having difficulty in refinancing at the moment.(...)
Chinese Developer Fantasia Loses Two Board MembersOne independent director says he wasn’t kept up to speed on key mattersTwo nonexecutive directors at Fantasia Holdings Group Co. have resigned, days after the Chinese developer rattled investors by unexpectedly failing to repay $206 million in maturing dollar bonds.The resignations of Ho Man, who had chaired the audit committee, and Priscilla Wong took effect immediately, Fantasia said late Monday in Hong Kong. “Mr. Ho has expressed concern that he had not been kept fully informed of certain crucial matters of the company in a timely manner,” it said.
The Nobel Prize economists turned statistics into insightCorrelation is not causation. Behind that cliché lies an important truth. In January this year, for example, the UK had one of the most stringent lockdowns and one of the highest death rates from Covid. New Zealand had no deaths and few restrictions. Yet, no matter what your favourite YouTube conspiracist might say, lockdowns don’t cause waves of Covid. Waves of Covid cause lockdowns.But while “correlation is not causation” is an important warning, when policymakers come asking questions, it is not much of a response.For example: why do more educated people tend to have higher incomes? Is it because education causes higher incomes, or because smart, energetic people thrive in both school and the workplace?Why do richer places tend to have lots of foreign-born workers? Is it because the immigrants boost incomes or because people head to where the money is?Places with lots of storks also have lots of babies. Is that because storks deliver babies or because large nations have room for both?The storks and babies example is something of a cautionary tale, as I explain in my book, How To Make The World Add Up. In 1965, the celebrated statistical communicator Darrell Huff told a US senate hearing that the correlation between smoking and cancer was just as spurious as that between storks and babies. It is a grim example of how easily a healthy scepticism can curdle into cynicism.All this explains why I was excited by Monday’s announcement of the Nobel memorial prize in economics. The prize winners, David Card, Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens, led the charge in what became known as “the credibility revolution” in economics.Faced with messy real-world data, it is tempting for economists to shrug and turn away from crucial questions such as “Does education raise incomes?” and “Do immigrants boost productivity?” Card, Angrist and Imbens showed the profession that we can be more ambitious.In 1992, New Jersey raised its minimum wage from $4.25 to $5.05 an hour. Might that make some fast-food workers too expensive to employ? Card and Alan Krueger spotted a natural experiment: eastern Pennsylvania sat next to New Jersey, with a similar economy, but Pennsylvania had not changed its minimum wage. Card and Krueger compared employment in New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania, and found no sign that fast-food jobs had been lost when the minimum wage went up in New Jersey.It was a hugely influential finding, but perhaps the most important part of it was not the result, but the demonstration that economists could find data to answer serious policy questions.Angrist and Krueger tackled the education-income question by observing a quirk in the education system in the US. Consider two children, one born in late December and the other born a couple of weeks later in early January. The December child starts school a full year earlier. However, both children could legally leave school on their 16th birthdays, a couple of weeks apart. The difference seems trivial, but in 1991 Angrist and Krueger showed that the January babies spent measurably less time in school and earned less, too.Of course only some children walk out of school when they turn 16; most do not. This is typical of natural experiments: rather than randomly assigning drugs and placebos, natural experiments randomly assign something vaguer, such as an opportunity to quit school sooner.It is a statistical headache, but Imbens, with Angrist, developed a toolkit to help researchers discern crisp causal relationships from fuzzy natural experiments. Economics has become a field full of clever empirical findings, and most of them stand on the Angrist-Imbens foundation.This year’s Nobel memorial prize is bittersweet. It is a reminder of the suicide of Alan Krueger in 2019. Krueger co-authored several of the papers cited by the Nobel committee.It is also a stark illustration of the gap between political rhetoric and the best data detective work. For example, one of Card’s most influential papers touches on the hottest topic in British politics today: can you raise wages by restricting immigration? Prime Minister Boris Johnson says that he can and he will.The data suggest a different story. Card studied the Mariel boatlift, an exodus of 125,000 people from Cuba to the US in 1980. Most of those people arrived and stayed in Miami, and most were relatively unskilled.Despite Miami’s unskilled workforce increasing by nearly 20 per cent over the course of a few months, Card found no sign that unskilled wages in Miami were depressed. Instead of using the influx of workers to drive down wages, Miami businesses found ways to employ these new workers.It is just one study, but Card’s work prompted economists to rethink simplistic models of immigration. The balance of evidence now suggests that immigrants are more likely to boost productivity than suppress it.The world is full of interesting data, but it is not full of rigorously controlled experiments. It is all too easy to cherry-pick treacherous statistics to argue that lockdowns cause Covid. But it is not much better to dismiss evidence entirely, reassuring people that cigarettes are probably safe because correlation is not causation.We can do better. As Krueger once said: “The idea of turning economics into a true empirical science, where core theories can be rejected, is a BIG, revolutionary idea.”Just so. It really is possible to turn statistics into insight. And we have to try.
[...] Es un poco como los "nativos digitales", igual de ignorantes sobre tecnología que los que les bautizaron con ese nombre, porque ya hubo una generación por el medio que es la que tuvo que pensar por ambas.
https://www.ft.com/content/b9387d5d-4000-4898-967b-79ac50218a45https://dailyuknews.com/business/the-nobel-prize-economists-turned-statistics-into-insight/CitarThe Nobel Prize economists turned statistics into insightCorrelation is not causation. Behind that cliché lies an important truth. In January this year, for example, the UK had one of the most stringent lockdowns and one of the highest death rates from Covid. New Zealand had no deaths and few restrictions. Yet, no matter what your favourite YouTube conspiracist might say, lockdowns don’t cause waves of Covid. Waves of Covid cause lockdowns.But while “correlation is not causation” is an important warning, when policymakers come asking questions, it is not much of a response.For example: why do more educated people tend to have higher incomes? Is it because education causes higher incomes, or because smart, energetic people thrive in both school and the workplace?Why do richer places tend to have lots of foreign-born workers? Is it because the immigrants boost incomes or because people head to where the money is?Places with lots of storks also have lots of babies. Is that because storks deliver babies or because large nations have room for both?The storks and babies example is something of a cautionary tale, as I explain in my book, How To Make The World Add Up. In 1965, the celebrated statistical communicator Darrell Huff told a US senate hearing that the correlation between smoking and cancer was just as spurious as that between storks and babies. It is a grim example of how easily a healthy scepticism can curdle into cynicism.All this explains why I was excited by Monday’s announcement of the Nobel memorial prize in economics. The prize winners, David Card, Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens, led the charge in what became known as “the credibility revolution” in economics.Faced with messy real-world data, it is tempting for economists to shrug and turn away from crucial questions such as “Does education raise incomes?” and “Do immigrants boost productivity?” Card, Angrist and Imbens showed the profession that we can be more ambitious.In 1992, New Jersey raised its minimum wage from $4.25 to $5.05 an hour. Might that make some fast-food workers too expensive to employ? Card and Alan Krueger spotted a natural experiment: eastern Pennsylvania sat next to New Jersey, with a similar economy, but Pennsylvania had not changed its minimum wage. Card and Krueger compared employment in New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania, and found no sign that fast-food jobs had been lost when the minimum wage went up in New Jersey.It was a hugely influential finding, but perhaps the most important part of it was not the result, but the demonstration that economists could find data to answer serious policy questions.Angrist and Krueger tackled the education-income question by observing a quirk in the education system in the US. Consider two children, one born in late December and the other born a couple of weeks later in early January. The December child starts school a full year earlier. However, both children could legally leave school on their 16th birthdays, a couple of weeks apart. The difference seems trivial, but in 1991 Angrist and Krueger showed that the January babies spent measurably less time in school and earned less, too.Of course only some children walk out of school when they turn 16; most do not. This is typical of natural experiments: rather than randomly assigning drugs and placebos, natural experiments randomly assign something vaguer, such as an opportunity to quit school sooner.It is a statistical headache, but Imbens, with Angrist, developed a toolkit to help researchers discern crisp causal relationships from fuzzy natural experiments. Economics has become a field full of clever empirical findings, and most of them stand on the Angrist-Imbens foundation.This year’s Nobel memorial prize is bittersweet. It is a reminder of the suicide of Alan Krueger in 2019. Krueger co-authored several of the papers cited by the Nobel committee.It is also a stark illustration of the gap between political rhetoric and the best data detective work. For example, one of Card’s most influential papers touches on the hottest topic in British politics today: can you raise wages by restricting immigration? Prime Minister Boris Johnson says that he can and he will.The data suggest a different story. Card studied the Mariel boatlift, an exodus of 125,000 people from Cuba to the US in 1980. Most of those people arrived and stayed in Miami, and most were relatively unskilled.Despite Miami’s unskilled workforce increasing by nearly 20 per cent over the course of a few months, Card found no sign that unskilled wages in Miami were depressed. Instead of using the influx of workers to drive down wages, Miami businesses found ways to employ these new workers.It is just one study, but Card’s work prompted economists to rethink simplistic models of immigration. The balance of evidence now suggests that immigrants are more likely to boost productivity than suppress it.The world is full of interesting data, but it is not full of rigorously controlled experiments. It is all too easy to cherry-pick treacherous statistics to argue that lockdowns cause Covid. But it is not much better to dismiss evidence entirely, reassuring people that cigarettes are probably safe because correlation is not causation.We can do better. As Krueger once said: “The idea of turning economics into a true empirical science, where core theories can be rejected, is a BIG, revolutionary idea.”Just so. It really is possible to turn statistics into insight. And we have to try.
It was a hugely influential finding, but perhaps the most important part of it was not the result, but the demonstration that economists could find data to answer serious policy questions.
...Y por eso llevo tiempo diciendo que debe volverse al análisis cualitativo, en el que gente con experiencia examina los casos uno por uno y acaba sacando conclusiones sobre los árboles que son imposibles de sacar si observas el bosque desde lejos. El uso exclusivo de métricas destruye información vital e imposibilita la "sabiduría" sobre algo.
Un amigo con un negocio en hostelería me comenta exactamente lo mismo, aunque en este caso no fue precisamente que les echase. De cualquier forma, no hay gente.También me comentó que no es únicamente la pandemia y las condiciones, sino que hay un factor demográfico: ya no entran apenas reemplazos entre los jóvenes. Muchos de ellos, siendo hijos de gente que ya estaba jodida económicamente, no tienen ni coche (ni podrían), con lo que aunque pudiesen trabajar no pueden ir a muchos sitios donde se les necesita. Lo mismo en cuestión de uniformes, etc. (antes los tenían que conseguir y pagar los propios empleados, ahora directamente ni se lo pueden permitir).Algunos simplemente no trabajan porque ya no les compensa. Se van a otros sectores donde se les trata mejor. Cada vez hay menos gente que traga carros y carretas porque está desesperada. Muchos de ellos se han ido fuera, se han cambiado a otros sectores o viven de otra cosa.Me comentó que esto se podría paliar en parte por la empresa (transporte común, vestuario, mejores salarios, etc.) porque trabajo tienen a montones, así que todo lo que contribuyese a tener más trabajadores disponibles sería beneficio neto en estas circunstancias, pero que el resto de socios tiene una mentalidad cortoplacista y sigue con el mismo piñón que antes, con lo que tienen que matarse gestionando muchísimos problemas para muy poco trabajo efectivo.La sensación general es de quemazo.
El precio de la luz ya detiene industrias: la acería Sidenor parará 20 días hasta NavidadAnte el "desorbitado" precio que paga por la electricidad, que en el último año se ha incrementado en más de un 300%, al pasar de 60 euros el megavatio hora a 260 eurosLa acería Sidenor se ha visto obligada a parar la producción de su planta principal de Basauri (Vizcaya) de forma intermitente hasta Navidades ante el "desorbitado" precio que paga por la electricidad que necesita para llevar a cabo sus procesos de fabricación, que en el último año se ha incrementado en más de un 300% al pasar de 60 euros el megavatio hora a 260 euros.
Ya cuesta igual la tonelada de aluminio que la electricidad para producirlaSe trata del metal que más energía consume para su fabricaciónEl aluminio ha llegado a tocar hoy los 3.040 dólares por tonelada en la Bolsa de Metales de Londres (LME), después de subir más de un 2% en la jornada, alcanzando un precio que no se veía desde julio de 2008. El precio del aluminio primario sube casi un 54% en lo que va de año, un avance que se ha acelerado en los últimos meses a medida que los precios de la electricidad se han disparado en el Viejo Continente.La relación del precio del aluminio con el de la electricidad es muy estrecha, ya que se trata del metal que más energía consume para su fabricación. Según los datos de Bloomberg, para cada tonelada de aluminio las fábricas consumen unos 14 megavatios hora, una intensidad equivalente al consumo de un hogar medio en Reino Unido durante 3 años. Para hacerse una idea del enorme consumo de electricidad que requieren las fábricas, especialmente las de aluminio, si toda la producción de la aleación en todo el mundo se contabilizase como un país, sería el quinto mayor consumidor anual de electricidad del planeta, con más de 900 millones de megavatios consumidos para su producción.(...)
https://www.elconfidencial.com/empresas/2021-10-11/luz-detiene-industrias-sidenor_3304766/CitarEl precio de la luz ya detiene industrias: la acería Sidenor parará 20 días hasta NavidadAnte el "desorbitado" precio que paga por la electricidad, que en el último año se ha incrementado en más de un 300%, al pasar de 60 euros el megavatio hora a 260 eurosLa acería Sidenor se ha visto obligada a parar la producción de su planta principal de Basauri (Vizcaya) de forma intermitente hasta Navidades ante el "desorbitado" precio que paga por la electricidad que necesita para llevar a cabo sus procesos de fabricación, que en el último año se ha incrementado en más de un 300% al pasar de 60 euros el megavatio hora a 260 euros.https://www.eleconomista.es/empresas-finanzas/noticias/11427917/10/21/Ya-cuesta-igual-la-tonelada-de-aluminio-que-la-electricidad-para-producirla-.htmlCitarYa cuesta igual la tonelada de aluminio que la electricidad para producirlaSe trata del metal que más energía consume para su fabricaciónEl aluminio ha llegado a tocar hoy los 3.040 dólares por tonelada en la Bolsa de Metales de Londres (LME), después de subir más de un 2% en la jornada, alcanzando un precio que no se veía desde julio de 2008. El precio del aluminio primario sube casi un 54% en lo que va de año, un avance que se ha acelerado en los últimos meses a medida que los precios de la electricidad se han disparado en el Viejo Continente.La relación del precio del aluminio con el de la electricidad es muy estrecha, ya que se trata del metal que más energía consume para su fabricación. Según los datos de Bloomberg, para cada tonelada de aluminio las fábricas consumen unos 14 megavatios hora, una intensidad equivalente al consumo de un hogar medio en Reino Unido durante 3 años. Para hacerse una idea del enorme consumo de electricidad que requieren las fábricas, especialmente las de aluminio, si toda la producción de la aleación en todo el mundo se contabilizase como un país, sería el quinto mayor consumidor anual de electricidad del planeta, con más de 900 millones de megavatios consumidos para su producción.(...)