Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022

[Benzino Napaloni]

O dicho de otra forma, ahora tendremos publicidad y marketing también para vendernos los puestos de trabajo. De mejorar las condiciones nada, sospecho.

De esto ya tenemos hace tiempo . Lo último que estoy viendo es ocultar si hay teletrabajo o si se exige presencial, aunque sea híbrido. Y los hay que aún intentan colar traslados a otro país europeo.

Lo bueno de esto es que como abusan de las buzzwords, con un poco de picardía les ves venir. No tienen muy allá el repertorio de ideas para captar incautos.

En el momento en que se ha manifestado el Peak Currantes, todas estas tretas pasan a un segundo plano. Y con el tiempo a donde pasarán será a la irrelevancia. Hasta que la pirámide de población se enderece, y para eso harán falta generaciones, es lo que va a haber.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Encontrar piso de alquiler en Málaga, misión (casi) imposible

La situación ha llegado a tal punto, comenta Luis Arias, que algunos trabajadores han tenido que renunciar a un contrato laboral en Málaga al no encontrar donde vivir.

"El tema está tan tenso que las empresas tienen gente propia dedicada a buscar alojamiento a sus trabajadores. Algunas incluso se plantean comprar pisos para que puedan vivir los empleados", precisa Arias.

A ver, a ver, que salgan las empresas a exigir bajar el precio del banano en vez de rajar de los tres millones de parados que no quieren trabajar. O que contemplen dar teletrabajo cuando sea posible.

Poco a poco nos acercamos a un Der Untergang, que todos saben lo que hay pero nadie quiere ser el primero en cascarlo. Y luego, un mes después de la guerra, ya nadie era nazi. Aquí tendremos lo mismo, yalodecíayoísmo y zorrauvismo.

[el malo]

Encontrar piso de alquiler en Málaga, misión (casi) imposible

La situación ha llegado a tal punto, comenta Luis Arias, que algunos trabajadores han tenido que renunciar a un contrato laboral en Málaga al no encontrar donde vivir.

"El tema está tan tenso que las empresas tienen gente propia dedicada a buscar alojamiento a sus trabajadores. Algunas incluso se plantean comprar pisos para que puedan vivir los empleados", precisa Arias.

A ver, a ver, que salgan las empresas a exigir bajar el precio del banano en vez de rajar de los tres millones de parados que no quieren trabajar. O que contemplen dar teletrabajo cuando sea posible.

Poco a poco nos acercamos a un Der Untergang, que todos saben lo que hay pero nadie quiere ser el primero en cascarlo. Y luego, un mes después de la guerra, ya nadie era nazi. Aquí tendremos lo mismo, yalodecíayoísmo y zorrauvismo.

Ooooo (idea loca) cambiamos de paradigma

¿Por qué la gente se iba del pueblo a la ciudad? Porque en la ciudad había trabajo. Desarrollando un poco, porque en la ciudad estaba la empresa que ofertaba trabajo.

¿Y si en vez de ir Mahoma a la montaña va la montaña a Mahoma? ¿Y si la empresa en vez de establecerse en Madrid se establece en Perales del Río (relativamente cerca de Madrid y con vivienda a una fracción del coste?

Las empresas saben adaptarse. Si no encuentran a nadie que quiera trabajar en la delegación de Castellana tendrán que abrir otra donde la gente quiera (pueda permitirse) trabajar.

Si tan sólo hubiera alguna manera de hacer el trabajo desde tu casa barata del pueblo 

[Benzino Napaloni]

Malo, al final tendrán que hacer eso, pero sabes bien que esto es una cuestión de costumbres e imagen.

En muchas de las empresas donde no he tenido intensiva los viernes, la excusa que nos daban era que no querían dar mala imagen ante los clientes. Y no hablo de consultoras, hablo de empresas de producto final. Ni que decir tiene que jamás vi un solo cliente un viernes después de la hora de comer.

Con esto pasa lo mismo. Aún hay muchos clientes que si no ven una oficina de postín en zona cara, o no ven las oficinas llenas de currantes, creen que les están estafando.

Yo viví el movimiento inverso que comentas, mi primera empresa tenía la factoría de software en un sitio tranquilo y barato, y una división comercial en una gran ciudad. Al final lo movieron todo al cogollo.

Aquí no hay mucho que dialogar o negociar. Las empresas o sus clientes se pusieron hace mucho tiempo en modo "esto es así porque lo digo yo". La realidad era la única que podía contestarles con ese mismo juego, y es en lo que ya estamos.

Las empresas no se resisten tanto a cambiar por un mero cambio, sino porque eso sería abrir la caja de pandora. Ya se sabe que se prefiere malo conocido. Pues hay que dejar que la realidad siga su curso. Las empresas más espabiladas se adaptarán, y las otras se extinguirán como los dinosaurios.

[Derby]

https://english.alarabiya.net/business/economy/2022/11/13/China-plans-sweeping-rescue-policies-to-avert-real-estate-slowdown-liquidity-crunch

China plans sweeping rescue policies to avert real estate slowdown, liquidity crunch

China has unveiled its most sweeping rescue package to bail out a real estate market mired in a record slowdown and deepening liquidity crunch, according to people familiar with the matter.

The People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on Friday jointly issued a notice to financial institutions laying out plans to ensure the “stable and healthy development of the property sector,” said the people, asking not to be identified as the matter is private. Unlike previous piecemeal steps, the latest notice includes 16 measures that range from addressing the liquidity crisis faced by developers to loosening down-payment requirements for homebuyers, the people said.

As part of the rescue plan, developers’ outstanding bank loans and trust borrowings due within the next six months can be extended for a year, while repayment on their bonds can also be extended or swapped through negotiations, the people added.

The move is the strongest sign yet that Chinese policy makers are easing a years-long clampdown on the property sector, one of the biggest drags on the world’s second-largest economy along with the nation’s dogged COVID-19 Zero policies. Authorities also issued a sweeping set of measures to recalibrate their pandemic response on Friday, publicly outlining a 20-point playbook for officials aimed at reducing the economic and social impact of containing the virus.

Taken together, the policy shifts by President Xi Jinping’s government will likely ease two of the biggest headwinds to China’s growth outlook and add fuel to a market rally that sent a gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong up 17 percent in the past two weeks.

It’s a stark reversal from the gloom that descended over markets in late October, after Xi’s elevation of close allies to the highest rungs of power stoked concern that ideology would trump pragmatism for the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has now erased losses suffered in the immediate wake of last month’s Communist Party Congress, swinging from one of the world’s worst-performing stock gauges to among the best.

The central bank and the banking regulator didn’t immediately reply to requests for comment out of working hours on Sunday.

Authorities have sought to defuse the property crisis with a raft of measures in the past few months, including cutting interest rates, urging major banks to extend 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) of financing in the final months of the year, and offering special loans through policy banks to ensure property projects are delivered.

China also expanded a key financing support program designed for private firms including real estate companies to about 250 billion yuan this week, a move that could help developers sell more bonds and ease their liquidity woes.

One of the biggest policy changes in the latest notice is to allow a “temporary easing of restrictions” on bank lending to developers.

China began imposing caps on bank’s property lending in 2021, as authorities sought to tighten the reins on a bubble-prone industry and curb leverage at some of the nation’s largest developers.

Banks not meeting the current restrictions will be given extra time to meet the requirement, said the people.

In addition, regulators encouraged banks to negotiate with homebuyers on extending mortgage repayment, and emphasized that buyers’ credit scores will be protected. That may alleviate the risk of social unrest among homebuyers who have engaged in a widespread boycott on mortgage payments since July.

China’s $2.4 trillion new-home market remains fragile and property debt defaults have surged. Price declines in the existing-home market were the most extreme in almost eight years in September, according to the latest official data. At banks, the proportion of bad loans related to property has surged to 30 percent, according to Citigroup Inc. estimates.

Signs of easing property curbs and pandemic restrictions have led to a sharp rebound in China assets. A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese developers’ stocks jumped a record 18 percent on Friday, with Country Garden Holdings Co. surging 35 percent.

Still, the financial backstop is dwarfed by the looming debt maturities facing developers. China’s property sector has at least $292 billion of onshore and offshore borrowings coming due through the end of 2023. That includes $53.7 billion in borrowings this year, followed by $72.3 billion of maturities in the first quarter of next year.

[pollo]

https://english.alarabiya.net/business/economy/2022/11/13/China-plans-sweeping-rescue-policies-to-avert-real-estate-slowdown-liquidity-crunch

China plans sweeping rescue policies to avert real estate slowdown, liquidity crunch

China has unveiled its most sweeping rescue package to bail out a real estate market mired in a record slowdown and deepening liquidity crunch, according to people familiar with the matter.

The People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on Friday jointly issued a notice to financial institutions laying out plans to ensure the “stable and healthy development of the property sector,” said the people, asking not to be identified as the matter is private. Unlike previous piecemeal steps, the latest notice includes 16 measures that range from addressing the liquidity crisis faced by developers to loosening down-payment requirements for homebuyers, the people said.

As part of the rescue plan, developers’ outstanding bank loans and trust borrowings due within the next six months can be extended for a year, while repayment on their bonds can also be extended or swapped through negotiations, the people added.

The move is the strongest sign yet that Chinese policy makers are easing a years-long clampdown on the property sector, one of the biggest drags on the world’s second-largest economy along with the nation’s dogged COVID-19 Zero policies. Authorities also issued a sweeping set of measures to recalibrate their pandemic response on Friday, publicly outlining a 20-point playbook for officials aimed at reducing the economic and social impact of containing the virus.

Taken together, the policy shifts by President Xi Jinping’s government will likely ease two of the biggest headwinds to China’s growth outlook and add fuel to a market rally that sent a gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong up 17 percent in the past two weeks.

It’s a stark reversal from the gloom that descended over markets in late October, after Xi’s elevation of close allies to the highest rungs of power stoked concern that ideology would trump pragmatism for the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has now erased losses suffered in the immediate wake of last month’s Communist Party Congress, swinging from one of the world’s worst-performing stock gauges to among the best.

The central bank and the banking regulator didn’t immediately reply to requests for comment out of working hours on Sunday.

Authorities have sought to defuse the property crisis with a raft of measures in the past few months, including cutting interest rates, urging major banks to extend 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) of financing in the final months of the year, and offering special loans through policy banks to ensure property projects are delivered.

China also expanded a key financing support program designed for private firms including real estate companies to about 250 billion yuan this week, a move that could help developers sell more bonds and ease their liquidity woes.

One of the biggest policy changes in the latest notice is to allow a “temporary easing of restrictions” on bank lending to developers.

China began imposing caps on bank’s property lending in 2021, as authorities sought to tighten the reins on a bubble-prone industry and curb leverage at some of the nation’s largest developers.

Banks not meeting the current restrictions will be given extra time to meet the requirement, said the people.

In addition, regulators encouraged banks to negotiate with homebuyers on extending mortgage repayment, and emphasized that buyers’ credit scores will be protected. That may alleviate the risk of social unrest among homebuyers who have engaged in a widespread boycott on mortgage payments since July.

China’s $2.4 trillion new-home market remains fragile and property debt defaults have surged. Price declines in the existing-home market were the most extreme in almost eight years in September, according to the latest official data. At banks, the proportion of bad loans related to property has surged to 30 percent, according to Citigroup Inc. estimates.

Signs of easing property curbs and pandemic restrictions have led to a sharp rebound in China assets. A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese developers’ stocks jumped a record 18 percent on Friday, with Country Garden Holdings Co. surging 35 percent.

Still, the financial backstop is dwarfed by the looming debt maturities facing developers. China’s property sector has at least $292 billion of onshore and offshore borrowings coming due through the end of 2023. That includes $53.7 billion in borrowings this year, followed by $72.3 billion of maturities in the first quarter of next year.

Parece que los chinos han optado por el salvavidas.
Como no lo hagan con cabeza, sólo van a engordar aún más el problema.

Pan para hoy... y ya veremos mañana.

[Derby]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-63614124

Jeremy Hunt: Everyone will have to pay more tax

Everyone will have to pay more tax under plans due to be announced on Thursday, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt says.

Offering a message few ministers would risk saying out loud, Mr Hunt told the BBC: "I've been explicit that taxes are going to go up."

He confirmed he would be giving details about further help for those struggling with energy bills, but warned there had to be constraints on help.

Labour accused the Conservatives of making a "total mess" of the economy.

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said Mr Hunt was choosing to tax working people, while doing "little to close tax loopholes which mean some of the wealthiest don't pay their fair share".

Mr Hunt was speaking to the BBC just days before he is due to deliver his tax and spending plans in Parliament as part of the Autumn Statement.

The BBC has been told the chancellor is set to announce spending cuts of about £35bn and plans to raise £20bn in tax.

It comes as the UK faces major economic challenges, with soaring living costs and a warning from the Bank of England that the country is facing its longest recession since records began.

It also follows the mini-Budget of former Prime Minister Liz Truss and her then chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, which led to market turmoil and a jump in government borrowing costs. Many of those policies have since been reversed by Mr Hunt.

Independent forecasts are understood to have identified a gap of around £55bn in the public finances - although some economists have questioned the size of the 'black hole'.

Speaking to the BBC, Mr Hunt acknowledged his plans would "disappoint people" - but he promised to protect the "most vulnerable".

"We have a plan to see us through choppy waters... we will make the recession we are in as short and shallow as possible."

The BBC has been told Mr Hunt is planning to freeze tax thresholds - the levels of income at which people begin to pay more tax - until 2028.

While he did not confirm these plans when appearing on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, the chancellor said: "I think I've been completely explicit that taxes are going to go up, and that's a very difficult thing for me to do because I came into politics to do the exact opposite."

As ever at this stage in the cycle, the occupants of the Treasury are coy about giving any specifics.

It is also abundantly clear that public services are in for a hard time - with no guarantee there'll be extra cash to help them to cope with the costs of inflation.

Some Conservatives MPs have warned against increasing taxes, with former party leader Iain Duncan Smith telling Sky News it could lead to a "deeper" recession.

Addressing the concerns of his colleagues, Mr Hunt said the previous leadership had tried that approach, "in other words a plan that doesn't show how, in the long run, we can afford it".

"We have tried that, we saw it didn't work."(...)

[Derby]

Animos! A seguir remando...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mortgage-rates-need-another-push-to-keep-plunging-11668270415

Mortgage Rates Need Another Push to Keep Plunging

A measure of rates on home loans plunged along with Treasury yields following the hopeful inflation data, but they could remain relatively elevated for a while

The pressure is finally coming off mortgage rates.

Amid the market’s huge reaction last week to the better-than-feared inflation print, and what it could signal about the direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, a widely tracked daily measure of the national 30-year fixed mortgage rate plunged. Bankrate.com’s overnight average decreased by 0.33 percentage point from Wednesday to Thursday, falling back under 7% to 6.91%.

This is certainly good news for people thinking of buying a home. But these days, mortgage rates aren’t just high. They are very high, even relative to how much interest rates overall have risen. So the real question is whether they will start to reverse that trend and drop faster as benchmark yields fall. There are good reasons to think that could be the case, though it isn’t yet a sure thing.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields also plunged on Thursday, falling by 0.31 points to 3.84%, according to FactSet figures.(...)

[Negrule]

Estoy atónito, me lo dicen y no me lo creo, han salvado al sector inmobiliario? Seguro que si se complica la cosa aquí nos los imitarán, eso es de comunistas.

https://english.alarabiya.net/business/economy/2022/11/13/China-plans-sweeping-rescue-policies-to-avert-real-estate-slowdown-liquidity-crunch

China plans sweeping rescue policies to avert real estate slowdown, liquidity crunch

China has unveiled its most sweeping rescue package to bail out a real estate market mired in a record slowdown and deepening liquidity crunch, according to people familiar with the matter.

The People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on Friday jointly issued a notice to financial institutions laying out plans to ensure the “stable and healthy development of the property sector,” said the people, asking not to be identified as the matter is private. Unlike previous piecemeal steps, the latest notice includes 16 measures that range from addressing the liquidity crisis faced by developers to loosening down-payment requirements for homebuyers, the people said.

As part of the rescue plan, developers’ outstanding bank loans and trust borrowings due within the next six months can be extended for a year, while repayment on their bonds can also be extended or swapped through negotiations, the people added.

The move is the strongest sign yet that Chinese policy makers are easing a years-long clampdown on the property sector, one of the biggest drags on the world’s second-largest economy along with the nation’s dogged COVID-19 Zero policies. Authorities also issued a sweeping set of measures to recalibrate their pandemic response on Friday, publicly outlining a 20-point playbook for officials aimed at reducing the economic and social impact of containing the virus.

Taken together, the policy shifts by President Xi Jinping’s government will likely ease two of the biggest headwinds to China’s growth outlook and add fuel to a market rally that sent a gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong up 17 percent in the past two weeks.

It’s a stark reversal from the gloom that descended over markets in late October, after Xi’s elevation of close allies to the highest rungs of power stoked concern that ideology would trump pragmatism for the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has now erased losses suffered in the immediate wake of last month’s Communist Party Congress, swinging from one of the world’s worst-performing stock gauges to among the best.

The central bank and the banking regulator didn’t immediately reply to requests for comment out of working hours on Sunday.

Authorities have sought to defuse the property crisis with a raft of measures in the past few months, including cutting interest rates, urging major banks to extend 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) of financing in the final months of the year, and offering special loans through policy banks to ensure property projects are delivered.

China also expanded a key financing support program designed for private firms including real estate companies to about 250 billion yuan this week, a move that could help developers sell more bonds and ease their liquidity woes.

One of the biggest policy changes in the latest notice is to allow a “temporary easing of restrictions” on bank lending to developers.

China began imposing caps on bank’s property lending in 2021, as authorities sought to tighten the reins on a bubble-prone industry and curb leverage at some of the nation’s largest developers.

Banks not meeting the current restrictions will be given extra time to meet the requirement, said the people.

In addition, regulators encouraged banks to negotiate with homebuyers on extending mortgage repayment, and emphasized that buyers’ credit scores will be protected. That may alleviate the risk of social unrest among homebuyers who have engaged in a widespread boycott on mortgage payments since July.

China’s $2.4 trillion new-home market remains fragile and property debt defaults have surged. Price declines in the existing-home market were the most extreme in almost eight years in September, according to the latest official data. At banks, the proportion of bad loans related to property has surged to 30 percent, according to Citigroup Inc. estimates.

Signs of easing property curbs and pandemic restrictions have led to a sharp rebound in China assets. A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese developers’ stocks jumped a record 18 percent on Friday, with Country Garden Holdings Co. surging 35 percent.

Still, the financial backstop is dwarfed by the looming debt maturities facing developers. China’s property sector has at least $292 billion of onshore and offshore borrowings coming due through the end of 2023. That includes $53.7 billion in borrowings this year, followed by $72.3 billion of maturities in the first quarter of next year.

Parece que los chinos han optado por el salvavidas.
Como no lo hagan con cabeza, sólo van a engordar aún más el problema.

Pan para hoy... y ya veremos mañana.

[sudden and sharp]

Martin Moryson (DWS): “Hay una carrera de economistas por hacer el peor pronóstico”
https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2022/11/11/fondos_y_planes/1668173318_726693.html
Denuncia que hay análisis sobre la economía de la zona euro demasiado agoreros


P. ¿Cómo ve la economía española?
R. Parece que está en forma. De hecho, es uno de los países que ha contribuido a que la eurozona no entre en recesión técnica. España y el resto de países del sur tuvieron una buena temporada turística. Creo que va a mantener un crecimiento positivo, aunque sea pequeño. Al final, lo que le acabará pasando es que el país sufrirá por los problemas que están teniendo países del norte del continente. En cualquier caso, si el PIB cae será en el primer trimestre de 2023, y será poco.




Éste es el simpatico...   [ Ya somos dos... los optimistas.  ]

[Derby]

Muchos deben estar buscándole... 

https://www.businessinsider.com/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-bahamas-fled-argentina-2022-11

Fallen FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried says he is in the Bahamas despite buzz that he fled to Argentina after his company's collapse

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is denying rumors he fled to Argentina.
He told Reuters he is still in the Bahamas, where FTX is based.
The former CEO is in hot water for the demise of his cryptocurrency exchange.

Disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is denying he's on the lam in Argentina, as rumors circulated on social media this weekend that the former CEO had fled.

Bankman-Fried — who stepped down as CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange on Friday after the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy — told Reuters via text message that he is currently in the Bahamas, where FTX is based.

When asked if he had taken a plane to Argentina, he responded "Nope."

Murmurings that Bankman-Fried left the country started on Saturday, after a series of viral tweets emerged on Twitter linking to flight trackers that claimed his private jet had landed in Argentina.

The former CEO is in hot water after admitting he "fucked up twice" in an apology on Twitter, explaining his company's demise was tied to high customer withdrawals and his incorrect assessment of the exchange's total debt. The Financial Times reported Saturday that FTX held $9 billion in liabilities against just $900 million in sellable assets.

Bankman-Fried relocated FTX headquarters from Hong Kong to the Bahamas in 2021. There, the company was reportedly operated by an inner circle of Bankman-Fried's 10 roommates, all of whom are either currently or were previously dating each other  , according to CoinDesk.

"It's a place full of conflicts of interest, nepotism, and lack of oversight," sources told CoinDesk.

[Derby]

Estoy atónito, me lo dicen y no me lo creo, han salvado al sector inmobiliario? Seguro que si se complica la cosa aquí nos los imitarán, eso es de comunistas.

Parece que los chinos han optado por el salvavidas.
Como no lo hagan con cabeza, sólo van a engordar aún más el problema.

Pan para hoy... y ya veremos mañana.

Preguntado Michael Pettis, uno de los mejores especialistas en China, sobre la probabilidad de éxito de este plan de rescate del inmobiliario; responde en TW:

https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1591811062512451586

Not really. My point is that even if these measures were to "work", it would only make things worse in the medium term. One way or another China must (and will) become an economy in which property plays a much smaller role. Beijing can only try to postpone the adjustment.

[sudden and sharp]

Muchos deben estar buscándole... 

Ya, y el otro buscando el dinerito... (Se supone.  )

[Derby]

Ya, y el otro buscando el dinerito... (Se supone.  )

 

[sudden and sharp]

Ya, y el otro buscando el dinerito... (Se supone.  )

 

Sí, eso es... con la pistola de jabón y betún. (Por internet y a domicilio... oiga.)