PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2021

[Derby]

https://financialmarketminds.com/market-extra-chinas-financial-system-near-peak-stress-but-spillovers-yet-to-come-analysts/

Market Extra: China’s financial system near ‘peak stress,’ but spillovers yet to come: analysts

China’s financial markets are nearing “peak stress” levels, with worries mounting over its highly leveraged property sector as the saga around troubled developer China Evergrande Group plays out.



(...) Zou Lan, head of financial markets at the People’s Bank of China, said officials were urging Evergrande to speed up asset disposals and resume projects to protect the interests of home buyers, the report said. The official said financial authorities, the housing ministry and local governments would work together to provide funding support so stalled projects could restart.

(...) But the crackdown on excesses in the property sector and other factors were still likely to ensure a continued slowdown in China’s economy.

“Even following an orderly restructuring of the worst-affected developers with minimal contagion to the financial system, construction activity would still almost inevitably slow much further. As we have warned for some time, that’s the logical consequence of the ‘three red lines’ policy imposed on developers last year, plus the enormous demographic headwinds that the sector faces,” said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in an Oct. 12 note.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-16/spain-is-canary-in-the-mine-for-europe-s-emerging-energy-crisis?srnd=markets-vp

Spain Is Canary in the Mine for Europe’s Emerging Energy Crisis

For European nations looking for ways to protect their citizens and businesses from skyrocketing energy prices, Spain has a dispiriting message: there’s only so much governments can do.

After months of devising policies to cap the pain of a record surge in gas and power prices amid supply shortages, Spain’s Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Thursday did a volte-face, effectively conceding that the measures were doing more harm than good.

(...) Knowing how vulnerable it is, Spain began its fight to temper the impact of rallying natural gas prices and limited supplies as early as in June, putting in place temporary tax cuts to lower consumers’ gas bills. That did little to stop electricity prices from jumping a whopping 11% in August and driving Spanish inflation to its highest in 13 years.

Then, back from its summer break, the government in mid-September scrambled to put in place a patchwork of policies through an executive decree that, among other things, imposed a windfall tax on utilities. Again, the results were dismal: utilities lost billions in market value, while electricity prices continued to set daily records.



Spain’s biggest energy companies, Endesa SA, Iberdrola SA and Naturgy Energy Group SA, had argued that large parts of their power is sold through long-term contracts and should be exempt from the windfall tax. Failing that, they sent out letters to their industrial clients informing them that prices would have to be revised. One steel-maker, Sidenor Aceros Especiales SL, announced on Monday that it would stop operations, citing higher power prices.

Utilities also said that prior to the September decree, 75% of the country’s energy demand had fixed prices. They said the measures would transfer the cost of the crisis to consumers who weren’t affected before.

The implications for the broader economy forced Sanchez to reel back the measures on Thursday, saying they would need to be strongly nuanced. His Ecological Transition Minister Teresa Ribera, who oversees energy, made similar noises. Ribera and Sanchez both said utilities that offer prices to industrial users at the same levels as before the surge in gas prices wouldn’t be hit by the new levies.

More damningly, Ribera told Parliament on Thursday that the estimates made by the government in September were already outdated and needed revising, underlining the difficulties of trying to control a situation that stems from global supply and demand dynamics.

Granted, Spain is particularly vulnerable to international gas-price fluctuations. It doesn’t have significant gas pipelines connecting it to the rest of Europe, and so has to rely on imports from northern Africa and large amounts of liquefied natural gas. When LNG demand is high in other parts of the world, like Japan, it competes in tight markets.

With imports accounting for about 75% of its energy, Spain was fifth among 40 European nations tracked by Eurostat in 2019, prior to the Covid-crisis. The country ranks second in its dependency among major EU economies.

Still, every country is trying to cap end-user prices. 

“While the shock has its own particularities in each country, the political challenge other European governments face is similar,” said Antonio Barroso, a managing director at Teneo. “High power prices, whether of gas or electricity, are extremely politically toxic. The incentive to adopt measures to protect consumers as much as possible is quite strong.”

Countries across Europe are trying to tackle the hike in energy prices through different ways -- from price caps for default tariffs that protect 11 million people in the U.K. and burning more oil in Sweden to plans for small nuclear reactors in France.

For its part, as Spain struggles to confront the crisis, the very pro-EU government in Madrid has found Brussels wanting. Its proposal to get the bloc to make pooled purchases of energy supplies -- not unlike the EU’s joint acquisition of Covid19 vaccines -- has gone nowhere.

The EU has effectively shown that it has a limited scope to enact a joint plan to alleviate the impact of the crisis -- a move made difficult by the varying energy sources and strategic interests of member states.

“It’s very hard to put a band aid on the power market,” said Rob Barnett, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

[sudden and sharp]

 

[senslev]

Are We Really Crazy Enough to Believe This Is Going to Work?

Unbeknownst to the giddy participants, they're not just betting on the omnipotence of the Fed Politburo, they're also making a max-leverage bet that "the madness of crowds" will never end.

Imagine an economy so dominated by its central bank that all markets hang on every word of its priesthood as life or death. You know, like the Federal Reserve and the American economy.

Now imagine this central bank issues enormous sums of new money which supercharges speculative activity such as hundreds of billions of dollars in stock buybacks, special purpose acquisition casinos, oops, I mean companies, and so on. You know, like the Federal Reserve's trillions in nearly free money for financiers.

Next, imagine that the central bank makes barely concealed promises that should any big gambler lose money in the casino, the bank will flood the financial system with even more nearly free money for financiers and bail out the loser.

Since flooding the system with nearly free money for financiers keeps the speculative frenzy going, the bank has implicitly promised that assets driven higher by speculative frenzy will never be allowed to drop. This promise naturally incentivizes even more speculative borrowing, leverage and risk, generating a titanic Everything Bubble in which risky assets skyrocket from pennies into dollars and dollars into fortunes.

Now imagine that this speculative frenzy spreads into every nook and cranny of the economy such that everyone is drawn into one casino or another, and previously sober, cautious people are seized by a quasi-religious fervor in which they become convinced that their gambling chips on NFTs, SPACs, meme-stocks, obscure alt-coins, homes, collectables and pretty much anything within the manic swirl of speculative frenzy is now a can't lose path to carefree permanent wealth because the central bank guarantees it and anyone who questions this is in league with the Devil (or worse).

Next, imagine that as a result of this vast expansion of "wealth" in the Everything Bubble, the entire economy is now dependent on this bubble never popping as speculation is driving incomes and a wealth effect without precedent as every participant feels newly empowered to borrow and spend more because their bubble-wealth just keeps rocketing higher.

The problem here is all speculative bubbles pop and so the central bank's inflation of a speculative Everything Bubble has backed the entire economy into a corner from which there is no escape: either the bubble must keep inflating to ever dizzier heights of delusion and risk or the bubble pops and lays waste to all the phantom wealth.

Lastly, imagine that the enthralled participants in the speculative orgy truly believe the central bank has the power to keep the Everything Bubble expanding forever, or at a minimum, bubbling along at a permanently high plateau that guarantees everyone's phantom wealth will be forever available for tapping and spending.

This is where we are, and it raises one question: are we really crazy enough to believe this is going to work? That the Federal Reserve can keep the Everything Bubble expanding essentially forever, or bubbling along at a permanently high plateau?

Are we really crazy enough to believe that conjuring trillions of dollars out of thin air and then leveraging this into tens of trillions of dollars and dumping all this money into assets which don't increase in utility so that their "value" rises 10-fold even as their utility remains unchanged is sustainable and a solid foundation for our economy?

Unbeknownst to the giddy participants, they're not just betting on the omnipotence of the Fed Politburo, they're also making a max-leverage bet that the madness of crowds will never end.

Are we really crazy enough to believe this is going to work? The answer appears to be a resounding "yes" because everyone knows the Fed has our backs and so permanently expanding wealth is guaranteed. (And if it isn't, no problem, I'll jump off the merry-go-round before the music stops. And of course, 99.9% of all punters succeed in doing so.)

In this blissful moment of speculative confidence in a) the music will never stop or b) I'll jump off just before the music stops, fortune fully intact, feast your eyes on these charts of guaranteed permanently high plateaus.










https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2021/10/are-we-really-crazy-enough-to-believe.html

[saturno]

China está desenclavando Asia central e Indochina (reduce a 10 días, en lugar de 45 por barco)




(los tramos claros están proyectados y sin terminar)

Observen la proyección evidente para la conexión transversal subsahariana

XGracias

[senslev]

https://twitter.com/MacroCharts/status/1449329281859870721?s=20

[senslev]

Sobre el nuevo Bitcoin ETF.

https://twitter.com/WTXCandWatch/status/1449359397197647872

A #Bitcoin futures ETF will begin trading next week. Since naked short selling of futures ETFs is easy to do (i.e., there isn’t a cap on the number of shares that can be created), the big finance players will collapse the price of Bitcoin to keep people married to the dollar. 1/x

Some think that shorting a #Bitcoin futures ETF could result in the “mother of all short squeezes,” driving the price of Bitcoin to the moon. This couldn’t be more wrong. 2/x

There is little risk of a short squeeze arising from the shorting (even naked shorting) of a #Bitcoin futures ETF. Why? Because, unlike shares of stock, market makers can always simply create new ETF shares out of thin air. 3/x

Additionally, I wouldn’t be surprised if market makers’ affiliates take the other sides of trades of underlying #Bitcoin futures contracts that are created to support the new ETF shares. After all, they will have insider knowledge that the Bitcoin price WILL be driven down. 4/x

But how can that be? Isn’t insider trading of #Bitcoin futures illegal? Not so much. Bitcoin is treated as a commodity in the US—not as a security. Since Bitcoin isn’t a company, nobody has a fiduciary duty to Bitcoin. 5/x

#Bitcoin, like oil or gold, doesn’t have “insiders.” A trader can have an insider relationship to ANOTHER person or entity…but many of those trades will appear to be nothing more than hedging because the trader isn’t breaching a duty to anyone. 6/x

For the sake of argument, let’s suppose that this conduct is clearly illegal. Commodities are traded in US dollars—not crypto. Does anyone reasonably believe that the CFTC has an interest taking enforcement action that would HELP #Bitcoin holders? Of course not. 7/x

Be wary of crypto as this #Bitcoin futures ETF (and other crypto futures ETFs) come into existence. Sooner or later, the big finance entities will use those ETFs and related derivatives to shake people out of crypto and move them back to the US dollar. 8/x

[Derby]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-evergrande-unlikely-to-cause-financial-crisis-bok-says-1.1667427

China Evergrande Unlikely to Cause Financial Crisis, BOK Says

(Bloomberg) -- China Evergrande Group’s troubles are unlikely to trigger a financial crisis given the low exposure of local banks to the debt-laden developer and the ability of Chinese regulators to control markets, the Bank of Korea said Sunday.

China’s government may provide liquidity to the company and help it proceed with ongoing construction projects, South Korea’s central bank said in a weekly report. A recovery in the global economy will be positive for China and offset a potential shock from the debt crisis, the bank said.

China Breaks Silence on Evergrande, Says Risks Controllable (...)

[senslev]

Madrid tardará 15 años en saldar su déficit de pisos asequibles frente a los 22 de Barcelona

Transición estructural 2040.

https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia_y_finanzas/vivienda-5.html

[Urederra]

Los navarros tendrán que pagar más por la barra de pan y el café


https://www.diariodenavarra.es/noticias/navarra/2021/10/17/navarros-tendran-pagar-barra-pan-el-cafe-504275-300.html

[senslev]

Metaverso = agilipollamiento total, ese es el futuro, esa es la Transición Estructural.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-amazing-things-youll-do-in-the-metaverse-and-what-it-will-take-to-get-there-11634396401

[sudden and sharp]

Los navarros tendrán que pagar más por la barra de pan y el café


https://www.diariodenavarra.es/noticias/navarra/2021/10/17/navarros-tendran-pagar-barra-pan-el-cafe-504275-300.html

Mientras no suba la chistorra, tú tranquilo. (Pones _más_ chistorra y _menos_ pan en el bocata.  )

[CHOSEN]

¿Alguien puede explicarme qué mierda es esta?

El FMI augura una inflación global prolongada si no se acelera la vacunación
https://www.efe.com/efe/america/economia/el-fmi-augura-una-inflacion-global-prolongada-si-no-se-acelera-la-vacunacion/20000011-4651474

El Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) sigue considerando que la inflación global será "transitoria" pero admite que puede prolongarse si no se acelera el acceso global de las vacunas, aseguró este miércoles Kristalina Georgieva, directora gerente del organismo.

En una rueda de prensa al arranque de la asamblea anual del FMI y el Banco Mundial (BM), Georgieva comentó la creciente preocupación por el alza generalizada de los precios en numerosos países.

Precisamente, este mismo miércoles se supo que la inflación anual de Estados Unidos se situó en septiembre en el 5,4 %.

"Anticipo que las presiones inflacionarias serán transitorias, pero solo si las vacunas (contra la covid-19) y la recuperación se aceleran", indicó Georgieva en la conferencia de prensa en la que remarcó que uno de los grandes factores de esta subida de precios es el "agudo desequilibrio" entre la oferta y la demanda en la economías avanzadas.

No obstante, insistió en que las estimaciones del organismo apuntan a que la inflación "comenzará su repliegue a mediados de 2022" en las economías avanzadas hacia el rango previsto por la mayoría de los bancos centrales del 2 % anual.

Las palabras de la directora del Fondo coinciden con la divulgación de los nuevos datos de inflación en Estados Unidos, y que se ubicó en septiembre en una tasa del 5,4 %, la mayor cifra en 13 años.

La institución financiera internacional rebajó este martes levemente las previsiones de crecimiento global de este año al 5,9 %, una décima menos que hace tres meses, debido a la variante delta del coronavirus y a los problemas en las cadenas de distribución mundiales.

Dejó, por su parte, sin cambios las previsiones mundiales para 2022 en el 4,9 %.

DEUDA EN NIVELES RÉCORD

Este miércoles, el Fondo también dio a conocer su informe de "Vigilancia Fiscal" en el que advirtió que los estímulos activados por la pandemia impulsaron la deuda mundial el año pasado en un 14 % hasta alcanzar un récord de 226 billones de dólares.

En una conferencia de prensa, el director del Departamento Fiscal del FMI, Vítor Gaspar, destacó que además de la "gran divergencia" en el acceso a las vacunas, también existe una "gran divergencia en la financiación" con los países avanzados recibiendo condiciones más favorables y los emergentes encarando "reducidos márgenes de maniobra" fiscales.

En conjunto, Gaspar valoró positivamente los esfuerzos desplegados para amortiguar el impacto económico, pero subrayó que "a medida que la deuda aumenta, los países tendrán que "calibrar las políticas fiscales en función de sus propias circunstancias, incluida la tasa de vacunación y la fuerza de la recuperación".

CRISIS SOBRE MANIPULACIÓN DE DATOS

Por último, Georgieva comentó la auditoría que reveló presiones inapropiadas del Banco Mundial para favorecer a China en un informe sobre clima de negocios cuando la economista búlgara trabajaba allí, y que ha arrojado de nuevo sombras sobre ambos organismos.

"No hay dudas sobre la credibilidad del FMI, de nuestros datos, de nuestras investigación. Así que el problema se encuentra al otro lado de la calle", señaló Georgieva en referencia a la sede del BM, que se encuentra justo en frente del Fondo en el centro de Washington.

El FMI expresó este lunes su "confianza plena" en Georgieva tras una revisión "exhaustiva" de las acusaciones de mala práctica por haber sido parte de estas presiones cuando estaba en el banco en 2017.

Poco después de conocerse la decisión, la secretaria del Tesoro de EE.UU., Janet Yellen, afirmó en un comunicado que no había motivo para la renuncia de Georgieva, pero advirtió que la auditoría había planteado "preocupaciones legítimas" y que el Fondo y el BM debían tomar medidas para "reforzar su integridad y credibilidad".

La crisis se desató el pasado 16 de septiembre cuando el bufete de abogados Wilmer Hale divulgó una auditoría interna del BM en la que señalaba que varios altos funcionarios del organismo, entre ellos Georgieva, presionaron entonces desde dentro del organismo de manera "indebida" para mejorar la clasificación de China en su informe periódico "Doing Business".

El objetivo era mejorar su clasificación en un momento en que el BM buscaba el apoyo de Pekín para incrementar su capital.

Como consecuencia de estas acusaciones, el BM ha cancelado la divulgación del informe, una de sus publicaciones más influyentes.

[senslev]

¿Alguien puede explicarme qué mierda es esta?

O son estúpidos o nos toman por tontos o mienten o todo a la vez. El COVID les ha venido de perlas porque la situación antes de la pandemia era ya bastante complicada y así han podido hacer lo que están haciendo porque de otra forma no hubiese podido explicarse.

[Yupi_Punto]

¿Alguien puede explicarme qué mierda es esta?

El FMI augura una inflación global prolongada si no se acelera la vacunación
https://www.efe.com/efe/america/economia/el-fmi-augura-una-inflacion-global-prolongada-si-no-se-acelera-la-vacunacion/20000011-4651474

Podría ser una traducción imaginativa.
Pero está claro que hay una OBSESIÓN con la vacuna. La duda es, ¿por qué? Están dispuestos a extorsionar y saltarse derechos básicos, incluso en algunos países prohíben trabajar sin vacuna.
El Pase sanitario para viajar ya está aceptado por la mayoría (si estás vacunado puedes viajar y contagiar el COVID libremente).