PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Verano 2022

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https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-c-valenciana-sabado-int/20220903/281861532327554

El alquiler bate récords con subidas por encima del 15% en 20 grandes ciudades

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https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-c-valenciana-sabado-int/20220903/281883007164034

Agosto se salda con 190.000 empleos menos tras el final del tirón turístico

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https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/09/03/6312422ee5fdea3a5b8b45b2.html

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https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-c-valenciana-sabado-int/20220903/281921661869698

El G7 pacta topar el precio del crudo ruso y Putin cierra el gas a Europa

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https://www.expansion.com/opinion/2022/09/02/6311db5c468aeb84058b45fb.html

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https://www.expansion.com/expansion-empleo/desarrollo-de-carrera/2022/09/02/6310ac3ee5fdead80c8b457e.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-chinas-economy-surpass-the-u-s-s-some-now-doubt-it-11662123945

China’s Economy Won’t Overtake the U.S., Some Now Predict

Slowing growth has dampened expectations that the Chinese economy will be the world’s largest by the end of the decade

HONG KONG—The sharp slowdown in China’s growth in the past year is prompting many experts to reconsider when China will surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest economy—or even if it ever will.

Until recently, many economists assumed China’s gross domestic product measured in U.S. dollars would surpass that of the U.S. by the end of the decade, capping what many consider to be the most extraordinary economic ascent ever.

But the outlook for China’s economy has darkened this year, as Beijing-led policies—including its zero tolerance for Covid-19 and efforts to rein in real-estate speculation—have sapped growth. As economists pare back their forecasts for 2022, they have become more worried about China’s longer term prospects, with unfavorable demographics and high debt levels potentially weighing on any rebound.

In one of the most recent revisions, the Centre for Economics and Business Research, a U.K. think tank, thinks China will overtake the U.S. as the world’s biggest economy two years later than it previously expected when it last made a forecast in 2020. It now thinks it will happen in 2030.

The Japan Center for Economic Research in Tokyo has said it thinks the passing of the baton won’t happen until 2033, four years later than its previous forecast.

Other economists question whether China will ever claim the top spot.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers  said China’s aging population and Beijing’s increasing tendency to intervene in corporate affairs, along with other challenges, have led him to substantially lower his expectations for Chinese growth.

He sees parallels between forecasts of China’s rise and earlier prognostications that Japan or Russia would overtake the U.S.—predictions that look ridiculous today, he said.

“I think there is a real possibility that something similar would happen with respect to China,” said Mr. Summers, now a Harvard University professor.

Researchers debate how meaningful GDP rankings are, and question whether much will change if China does overtake the U.S. The depth and openness of the U.S. economy mean the U.S. will still have outsize influence. The dollar is expected to remain the world’s reserve currency for years to come.

Size alone doesn’t reflect the quality of growth, said Leland Miller, chief executive officer of China Beige Book, a research firm. Living standards in the U.S., measured by per capita gross domestic product, are five times greater than in China, and the gap is unlikely to close soon.

Still, a change in the ranking would be a propaganda win for Beijing as it seeks to show the world—and its own population—that China’s state-led model is superior to Western liberal democracy, and that the U.S. is declining both politically and economically. Over time, it could lead to more-substantive changes as more countries reorient their economies to serve Chinese markets.

“If China slows down substantially in its growth, it impacts China’s capacity to project power,” said Mr. Summers.

How the two countries stack up economically matters to Chinese leaders: After the U.S. economy grew faster than China’s during the last quarter of 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping told officials to ensure the country’s growth outpaces the U.S.’s this year, the Journal previously reported.

Economic fortunes can reverse quickly. In 2020, when China bounced back faster than the U.S. did from initial Covid-19 outbreaks, it looked like China’s economy might surpass the U.S. sooner than expected.

Some economists appear less perturbed by near-term threats to China’s growth. Justin Yifu Lin, a former chief economist at the World Bank who has long been bullish on China’s potential, argues its larger population means the country’s economy will wind up twice as big as the U.S.’s eventually. At a forum in Beijing in May, he predicted that process would continue despite the country’s latest slowdown.

Nevertheless, economic problems keep piling up in China, in part because of policy choices Beijing has made to contain Covid-19 and rein in debt.

The country’s real-estate slowdown is showing no signs of letting up. An index tracking consumer confidence plunged to its lowest level in decades in spring this year. Urban youth unemployment is at a record high.

The Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank, noted in a March report that it expects Chinese growth to average only about 2% to 3% a year between 2021 and 2050, compared with some researchers’ expectations that China could maintain 4% to 5% growth until midcentury. The institute cited unfavorable demographics, diminishing returns from infrastructure investments and other challenges.

With growth of 2% to 3% a year, China could still become the world’s largest economy, the institute noted.

“But it would never establish a meaningful lead over the United States and would remain far less prosperous and productive per person than America, even by mid-century,” it wrote. Its growth also wouldn’t be enough to give it any significant competitive advantage.

In a response to questions, the Lowy Institute said China’s further economic slowdown since the report came out has “at minimum pushed back the likely moment when China might overtake the U.S., and made it more likely that China might in fact never be able to do so.”

Measured by purchasing power, which takes into account differing costs of goods and services across countries, China already overtook the U.S.’s economy in 2016, according to World Bank figures.

Measured in U.S. dollar terms, however, China’s GDP was 77% of the size of the U.S’s. in 2021, up from 13% in 2001, data from the World Bank shows.

Capital Economics researchers wrote in a report early last year that their most likely scenario envisions China’s economy expanding to about 87% of the size of the U.S.’s in 2030, before dropping back to 81% in 2050. It blamed China’s shrinking working population and weak productivity growth, among other factors.

“A lot of people for a long time have overestimated the competence of China’s leadership and have been shocked by the missteps with Covid and the property sector,” wrote Mark Williams, the firm’s chief Asia economist, in an email in which he reaffirmed his firm’s forecast. “The weakness these crises have revealed have been present and growing for a long time.”

Some researchers say China’s ability to overtake the U.S. will depend on whether it pursues more economic policy changes.

Bert Hofman, director of the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore and a former economist at the World Bank, said he believes China can surpass the U.S. in GDP size by 2035, if it raises its retirement age, allows more rural workers to move to cities, and takes steps to enhance productivity such as spending more on education and healthcare.

But China won’t be able to catch the U.S. if policy makers pursue only “limited reforms,” he said, or if it suffers a debt crisis. Further decoupling with the U.S. could make it harder for China to advance, as the flow of knowledge from abroad is disrupted, he said.

Other economists worry that size comparisons risk eliciting nationalism that can be detrimental to both countries.

“Too many people have lost sight of the fact that our economies are mutually beneficial,” said Andy Rothman, an investment strategist at Matthews Asia. Since China joined the World Trade Organization, he noted, U.S. exports to China are up over 600%, compared with 126% to the rest of the world.

“Looking at the Chinese economy and the U.S. economy as a zero-sum game—that’s not accurate,” he said.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Vivienda: ¿estamos en el pico de precios y se aproxima una corrección?

Beatriz Amigot | 02/09/2022

Playa de la Concha, en San Sebastián. | DREAMSTIME

EXPANSIÓN envía hoy a los suscriptores Premium una nueva edición de su newsletter de vivienda, con un análisis cuánto tiempo van a seguir subiendo los precios inmobiliarios. También incluye un artículo sobre el avance del Euribor y un reportaje sobre las casas a la venta más caras en España, entre otras.

El precio de los inmuebles de segunda mano subió en agosto un 3,9% interanual, hasta situarse en los 1.896 euros/m2, según los datos de Idealista. De hecho, San Sebastián y Madrid, dos de las capitales más caras para adquirir una vivienda, alcanzaron máximos históricos -con unos precios de 5.126 euros/m2 y 3.973 euros/m2, respectivamente-. Además, en el último informe de Tinsa, que incluye la obra nueva, el alza se disparaba hasta el 8,9%. La pregunta que los inversores se hacen ahora es si esta escalada tiene techo.

En el actual contexto inflacionista, la percepción de los ciudadanos es que esta tendencia alcista se va a mantener. Así lo muestra el último Observatorio de Aedas Homes que asegura que el 81% de los entrevistados prevé que el precio de la vivienda continuará subiendo durante el próximo año, un porcentaje récord y 10 puntos más que hace seis meses. Sin embargo, los expertos auguran que las subidas de precios pueden frenarse a finales de año.

Evolución del precio de la vivienda | Agosto de 2022. Variación anual, en porcentaje.

La espiral inflacionista ha llevado al Banco Central Europeo a subir los tipos de interés 0,50 puntos en julio y se espera que ahora en septiembre el alza incluso vaya más allá. Uno de los efectos más inmediatos ha sido el alza del Euribor, que en agosto roza ya en tasa diaria el 1,8% (muy lejos del -0,502% con el que empezó el año).

Francisco Iñareta, portavoz de Idealista, asegura que "es muy probable que la inflación y el encarecimiento de la financiación retraigan a una parte de la demanda actual de vivienda, ya que además de encarecer las cuotas hipotecarias se reducirá la capacidad de ahorro de las familias y la cantidad de dinero que pueden destinar al pago del préstamo. Esta estabilización de la oferta posiblemente elimine cierta tensión de los precios en los próximos meses".

Desde Huspy, start up de tecnología aplicada al sector inmobiliario, también prevén que estos altos precios en los inmuebles comenzarán a bajar durante la última parte de 2022. En un reciente informe esta firma asegura que al encarecimiento de las hipotecas se sumará que los bancos van a exigir más condiciones para conceder préstamos, lo que reducirá el número de personas que podrá acceder a un inmueble.

Eso sí, ante la perspectiva de incertidumbre económica, el ladrillo sigue manteniéndose como una inversión refugio, por lo que hay un tipo de demanda (no de usuario sino de inversión) que va a seguir manteniendo su interés en este mercado.

Por otra parte, a pesar del freno en la demanda, hay factores importantes que están afectando a la oferta y que, por tanto, también tendrán un impacto sobre los precios. Por un lado, el stock de viviendas a la venta se ha reducido un 8% interanual durante el segundo trimestre de 2022 y hay capitales donde las caídas superan el 30%. En Madrid y Barcelona, por ejemplo, la oferta ha descendido un 15%.

Además, en el sector de la construcción de vivienda nueva los altos precios energéticos y de las materias primas están elevando los costes y, en consecuencia, los precios.

El panorama actual del mercado inmobiliario español, con tensiones tanto en la demanda como en la oferta, no hace esperar grandes caídas en el mercado, sino cierta desaceleración. Así, el acceso a la vivienda, sobre todo, para los más jóvenes va a seguir siendo complicado.

La última Encuesta Financiera de las Familias del Banco de España arrojaba un dato revelador: sólo el 36% de los menores de 35 años tiene una casa en propiedad, casi la mitad que diez años atrás cuando ese porcentaje alcanzaba el 69%.

Saludos.

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

Les jeux sont faits

craso error permitir especular con muchas cosas, vivienda, energía, alimentos, y próximamente agua, sanidad y educación (vean USA)-; se hayan forrado hasta el infinito y mas allá.

Si la Clase Media ha permitido especular con la energía y todo lo demás, ha sido a cambio de que a ellos les permitieran especular con la vivienda. Si los costes energéticos son ingresos para los productores de energia, los costes inmobiliarios son ingresos para las Clases Medias Propietarias.

Todo eso forma parte del pacto social entre las Clases Medias y las Clases Dirigentes y en el que se basa el capitalismopopular, que consiste principalmente, entre otras cosas, en explotar a las clases bajas (*) con El Pisito ,y expoliar al Estado y vivir a costa de las generaciones futuras.

El fallo en el plan de la Clase Media, y que no se esperaban, es que a-la-chita-callando les han metido la guerra de Ucrania dentro del pacto social; y se lo han comido con patatas, porque si a la Clase Dirigente les custionan la guerra, ellos pueden dar por finalizado el pacto social, y les quitan su principal fuente de riqueza: El Pisito, que es un precio político y que desde las administaciones públicas se puede finiquitar en cualquier momento. Algo que la Clase Media Propietaria tiene bastante claro; por eso monitorizan dia a dia el precio de la vivienda. Para ir afilando las guillotinas y tenerlas preparadas para cuando llegue el momento de sacarlas a las calles.

Y así estamos. Vemos todos los días en las noticias como Europa se está derrumbando poco a poco, pero nos amenizan las espera con noticias triunfalistas de El Pisito. ¿Hasta dónde va a llegar la subida de los alquileres? Todas las semanas nos salen con aumentos espectaculares de los precios de El Pisito, mientras al mismo tiempo nos dicen que el resto de la economía se está llendo por el desague.

(*) Las Clases Medias no son conscientes de lo cerca que están de formar parte de las clases bajas. Basta con que uno de la pareja falle en el trabajo, que salgan del programa de paquete de ayudas que tienen asignado, de forma directa o indirecta, o que caigan en una espiral de malas decisiones o enfermedad, para que su nivel de vida de Clase Media caiga hasta verse dentro de la clase baja. Con razón se aferran a El pisito con uñas y dientes, que es lo único que el popularcapitalismo les asegura que va a ir siempre pa-rriba.

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https://twitter.com/diasasaigonados/status/1564964153810452482

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https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1565181364370116608

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https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1565331357466763264

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https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1565683762406559745

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1565809864365981696

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/04/business/uk-prime-minister-economy/index.html

Boris Johnson is handing his successor an economic 'catastrophe'

London (CNN Business)Across the United Kingdom, businesses and households are warning that they won't make it through the winter without help from the government. That sets up enormous challenges for the incoming prime minister, who will be announced this week.

For months, the United Kingdom has endured a leadership vacuum while the country has skidded toward a recession and a humanitarian crisis triggered by soaring energy bills.

Since Boris Johnson announced he would leave office in July, the outlook for growth has weakened. Annual inflation is running above 10% as food and fuel prices leap. Frustration over the rising cost of living has compelled hundreds of thousands of workers who staff ports, trains and mailrooms to go on strike. The British pound just logged its worst month since the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum, hitting its lowest level against the US dollar in more than two years.

"It's just one blow after the other," said Martin McTague, who heads up the UK's Federation of Small Businesses. "I'm afraid I can't find any good news."

The situation could get much worse before it gets better. The Bank of England anticipates that inflation will jump to 13% as the energy crisis intensifies. Citigroup estimates inflation in the United Kingdom could peak at 18% in early 2023, while Goldman Sachs warns it could reach 22% if natural gas prices "remain elevated at current levels."

The contenders to succeed Johnson — current foreign secretary Liz Truss and former finance minister Rishi Sunak — face calls to announce a dramatic intervention as soon as one of them becomes the fourth Conservative leader of the country in a decade.

The most urgent problem will be dealing with the skyrocketing cost of energy, which could unleash a wave of business closures and force millions of people to choose between putting food on the table and heating their homes this winter. Experts have warned that people will become destitute and cold-weather deaths will rise unless something is done fast.

"Everybody is assuming that there will be a swift and decisive announcement that puts this issue to bed, or at least provides people with reassurance," said Jonathan Neame, who runs Shepherd Neame, Britain's oldest brewer. "If there's not, that person will come under very considerable pressure."

An energy 'catastrophe'

Energy bills for households will rise 80% to an average of £3,549 ($4,106) a year from October. Analysts say the household price cap could rise to more than £5,000 ($5,785) in January and jump above £6,000 in April ($6,942).

As people are forced to reevaluate their budgets, the boom in consumption that followed the Covid-19 lockdowns is dissipating fast. The Bank of England has warned the UK economy will fall into a recession in the coming months.

"The key challenge that the energy price surge poses is that households that use lots of energy — and in particular poorer households — are going to really struggle to make ends meet," said Ben Zaranko, senior research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies. "It's going to mean really big cutbacks in other areas of spending."

Meanwhile, Neame, whose portfolio includes about 300 pubs across southern England, said business owners are panicking. They're getting quoted insane numbers for year-ahead utility bills, if they can find suppliers at all. Nick Mackenzie, the head of the Greene King pub chain, said that one location it works with reported its energy costs had jumped by £33,000 ($38,167) a year.

"It's really daunting for a lot of businesses, especially the ones who came through Covid in a weakened state," McTague said. "They're now struggling to deal with another once-in-a-lifetime catastrophe."

The crumbling British pound could exacerbate problems, making it more expensive to import energy and other goods, pushing inflation even higher.

Overlapping crises

It's not the only reason business owners and investors are increasingly anxious. While job vacancies fell between May and July, they remain 60% above their pre-pandemic level. Finding workers to fill open roles has been a particular challenge in the United Kingdom since the country voted to leave the European Union. About 317,000 fewer EU nationals were living in the United Kingdom in 2021 than in 2019, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Brexit is also scrambling trade, particularly with the European Union, the UK's largest trading partner. Exports and imports will be about 15% lower in the long run than they would have been if the United Kingdom stayed in the EU, the Office for Budget Responsibility has projected.

Dean Turner, UK economist at UBS, said it's up to the new prime minister to try to make the most of the country's position without creating further disruption. Yet hardline British lawmakers are still pushing to cast aside a key part of the Brexit agreement Johnson signed with the European Union, which could ultimately trigger a trade war with the UK's biggest export market.

"Brexit's happened. It is what it is, we've all got our own opinions on it," Turner said. "But we've got to work with it to make it better for us, and I just struggle to see if there's any momentum to do that."

No easy solutions

Truss, who is expected to take the reins from Johnson after his government collapsed under a pile of scandals earlier this summer, has vowed to jumpstart the economy by slashing taxes. But many economists fear this approach could fan inflation and hurt fragile public finances, while failing to put money in the pockets of those who need it most.

"The benefits of cutting [taxes] would largely flow to the people who pay more tax, which are generally people with more money," said Jonathan Marshall, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation.

There's no way for the state to avoid paying huge sums to deal with the energy situation this winter, but targeted measures will be necessary to avoid waste. Freezing gas and electricity prices over the next two winters could cost the government over £100 billion ($116 billion), according to researchers at the Institute for Government.

"Energy is expensive, gas is expensive," Marshall said. "To avoid people freezing in their houses, that needs to be paid for. But the state doesn't need to pay for it for people who can afford it."

There are also questions about how the incoming government will afford a large-scale economic intervention, especially if slashing taxes — and therefore government revenue — is the priority.
The UK government borrowed heavily to provide support during coronavirus lockdowns. The country's debts are now almost 100% of its gross domestic product. When interest rates were at rock bottom, and access to cash was cheap, this wasn't a major issue.

But that's no longer the case. The Bank of England has been aggressively hiking rates as it tries to put a lid on inflation. That will make it increasingly expensive for the government to service its debt. The United Kingdom also has issued a large number of inflation-linked bonds, adding to its vulnerability.

"It's almost a perfect cocktail of challenges that make public finances look at risk in a way they haven't in recent times," Zaranko of the IFS said.