Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[Derby]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/19/business/new-zealand-housing-prices.html

Where Housing Prices Have Crashed and Billions in Wealth Have Vanished

Michael Wilson was hopeful when he put his three-bedroom house up for sale: Over a dozen would-be buyers came to the initial showing.

But about a year later, the property is still for sale. Offer after offer fell through because the prospective buyers were unable to sell their homes.

Welcome to New Zealand, one of the world’s most troubled housing markets. Over the last 18 months, homeowners and investors have lost billions of dollars in wealth after prices that spiked during the Covid pandemic started plunging as mortgage rates also soared.

“If we listed it, say, two months before we originally did, it would have literally sold the next day,” Mr. Wilson said. He and his wife, Jade, might finally have found a buyer for their three-bedroom house in Te Awamutu, a pretty North Island town of 13,000 people. But if they are lucky they will be paid about 15 percent less than they originally sought.

The pandemic’s disruptions to jobs, wages and living conditions caused a yo-yo effect in housing markets in many countries, including Sweden, Britain, Canada and Australia. Few places have experienced as wild a swing as New Zealand, which last week slipped into a recession.

Property in New Zealand has traditionally been expensive and in short supply. Now a combination of even higher prices, poorly constructed housing and the biting effects of interest rate increases has pushed the housing crisis to the top of the agenda, ahead of national elections this year.

During the pandemic, as people took advantage of low mortgage rates and relaxed lending rules, house prices soared almost 50 percent. Since November 2021, after New Zealand’s hawkish central bank embarked on one of the most aggressive rate-tightening cycles in the world to tackle rising inflation, prices have plummeted 17.5 percent, eradicating more than $6 billion in household wealth, according to Statistics New Zealand estimates.

Home sales fell to a record low in the three months through December, and houses now sit on the market for an average of 47 days, with some languishing for many months.

Calls for the government to address the housing shortage grew more urgent in February, when once-in-a-generation storms and flooding damaged thousands of homes on North Island, some irreparably. Then five people died in May in a devastating fire at a hostel in Wellington, the capital, that was inhabited mostly by men without stable housing.

Despite relatively low wages and ample land — New Zealand has a population of five million spread over an area the size of Colorado — a dearth of building, coupled with low borrowing costs, meant that buyers had long been willing to pay for older homes that were poorly built and insulated.

“You’re just lucky to have shelter, rather than worry about the quality of shelter,” said Shamubeel Eaqub, an independent economist in Auckland.

Since the early 1980s, building in New Zealand has not kept pace with population growth, after new restrictive zoning laws and high construction prices limited development.

Property values in New Zealand are also highly susceptible to the rise and fall of interest rates. Unlike U.S. mortgages, which are effectively backed by the government and often set for as long as 30 years, home loans rarely have fixed rates of more than a couple of years. Buyers and homeowners with mortgages now face interest rates of at least 6.5 percent on new loans, up from about 2 percent in 2020.

Housing problems touch virtually every corner of the population, including those on painfully long waiting lists for public housing, underserved renters for whom property ownership seems out of reach and more affluent people who bet big on property and are now seeing their investments fall in value.

Homes are among the least affordable in the world, with a median price of 780,000 New Zealand dollars, or about $480,000, compared with about $407,000 in the United States, according to Redfin.

“You’ve got an enormous number of people who live week to week, paycheck to paycheck, who see an extraordinary amount of their take-home pay eaten up by housing costs,” said Chris Bishop, a member of Parliament for the center-right opposition National Party. “It’s a big driver of inequality and of poverty generally.”

The problem has defied policy fixes by successive governments, and the politicians know that New Zealanders have a lot at stake in the issue. Most New Zealanders own a home, and 57 percent of household wealth consists of land and houses, according to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. That is partly because there is no capital-gains tax, meaning money made on sales is typically not taxed.

“Property investing is the great New Zealand hobby,” said Max Rashbrooke, a researcher on economic inequality in New Zealand.

Adding to the gloom: A rare moment of bipartisanship in housing policy appears to have hit the skids.

In late 2021, New Zealand’s two major political parties co-signed legislation making it easier to construct three-story buildings in the central areas of cities and towns, to avoid extensive suburban sprawl. But Christopher Luxon, the leader of the National Party, said last month that he intended to walk back that commitment and return to a model in which many new houses are built on former farmland at the edges of cities.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said he had called on the opposition to offer changes to the law rather than scrap it.

The two parties’ dueling approaches will be put to the test in the nation’s election in October.

In the meantime, homeowners are doing what they can to manage the troublesome mix of more expensive mortgages and falling prices.

Lisa Lamberton recently sold her home in the city of Whanganui and is moving farther north to be closer to family. She is philosophical about paying higher rates. “When you’re a homeowner, at some point rates aren’t going to be in your favor,” Ms. Lamberton, 42, said. “From my perspective, it was always going to happen.”

James Faber, a warehouse operator and part-time property investor in Palmerston North, spent months trying to sell a property as the market dropped. It ultimately sold for about 360,000 New Zealand dollars, 130,000 less than he had hoped.

Last month, seeking to avoid a similar wait, Mr. Faber, 38, listed another property at auction with a starting price of one New Zealand dollar, against the advice of his lawyer and his property agent. The home eventually went for 400,000 New Zealand dollars — more than other comparable recent sales, he said, but far less than the council estimation of 570,000 New Zealand dollars 18 months earlier.

Even then, he said, he was shocked by the lack of interest in the auction. “It’s a fricking dollar reserve,” he said. “I still can’t believe half the city didn’t come to the open home.”

[Benzino Napaloni]

El Euribor de junio empieza dar pánico



@el malo, ya te decía que la bajada del Euríbor era momentánea y que no podía durar. Hombre de poca fe .

El blog de Calópez es una mina de oro revelando el wishful thinking. Rajan de Lagarde, empiezan a autoconvencerse de que los tipos no pueden durar así mucho tiempo, Lagarde vuelve a repetir que nada de aflojar hasta que la inflación se controle, chasco y cabreo, y vuelta a empezar. Con la hipoteca cada vez más cara y con cada vez menos oxígeno.

[Lem]

(abrevio por no torturar a la gente con páginas infinitas)

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/19/business/new-zealand-housing-prices.html

Where Housing Prices Have Crashed and Billions in Wealth Have Vanished

Michael Wilson was hopeful when he put his three-bedroom house up for sale: Over a dozen would-be buyers came to the initial showing.

But about a year later, the property is still for sale. Offer after offer fell through because the prospective buyers were unable to sell their homes.

Welcome to New Zealand, one of the world’s most troubled housing markets. Over the last 18 months, homeowners and investors have lost billions of dollars in wealth after prices that spiked during the Covid pandemic started plunging as mortgage rates also soared.

el comentario de Mr. Faber es para enmarcar.

por ilustrar, apenas se ha rebobinado la mitad del incremento durante la era Covid:

[Lem]

https://www.ft.com/content/9940b3b2-1988-4658-95cb-fa312bd23185

UK households remortgaging in 2024 face £2,900 rise in annual payments

New estimate of rising cost of borrowing increases pressure on Rishi Sunak to help families

UK households that come to the end of fixed-rate mortgage deals next year face an average £2,900 increase in annual payments, putting Rishi Sunak under pressure to defuse an election-year time bomb.

The estimated increase in payments by the Resolution Foundation think-tank reflects concern that the UK has a worse inflation problem than other countries and that the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates to almost 6 per cent next year, when a general election is expected.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey on Friday called for a targeted £3bn “mortgage protection fund” for people whose homes would otherwise be repossessed, in a sign of growing political heat on the issue.

But the prime minister and his chancellor Jeremy Hunt argue that such a move would be dangerous because it would fuel inflation.

Sunak said on Wednesday that the government’s “number one economic priority” was taming high inflation.

The political row comes after another week of mortgage rate increases by lenders, including NatWest, Nationwide and HSBC, in moves that followed poor official inflation data last month that prompted financial markets to increase their expectations of interest rate rises by the BoE.

“It is serious,” said one senior government figure. “That’s why we are fully focused on halving inflation by the end of the year. Inflation is the disease in the economy.”

The BoE is likely to raise interest rates from 4.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent when the Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday, although some economists think a larger increase is possible if there is another bad set of inflation figures on Wednesday.


(...)

acerca del artículo, tuit-comentario de un muy colorido hedge fund manager conocido por los lares anglo por haber estado en el lado de los ganadores de 2008. ha estado criticando las subidas de tipos y dice que solo hay cuatro personas en el mundo que comprendan como funciona el dinero:

Anyone read the front page of the Pink Times today ?

Totally insane...

It feels like a combination of the £ eviction from the euro exchange rate system a million years ago and all those  preposterous declarations to raise rates to infinity.

On 16 Sep 92 they raised rates from 10 to 12%. Market didn't budge. Kept selling Sterling. No way they could not crush the economy at 12% rates. The bluff was ignored

Feeling peeved, the raised again, later that day, to 15%, and that's when everyone knew the gig was really truly up

Soros and Stan yawned, yeah go immolate yourself, they sold more £

You see, threats have to be credible...

And 2006 till 2008 when mortgages had to reprice from teaser to reality

The BofE was really hopeless back then as well, they didn't cut rates, they spoke gibberish about being worried about inflation. The economy was set to implode

Their " huff and I'll puff  and I'll blow your house down" rhetoric is possibly worse now

Yeah, go and immolate yourself

Present expectation of terminal British rates are 6 %

This would imply an average hike in annual mortgage pyts of £2.9k

Its not gonna happen, its already a bloodbath

I got my ex family home over there and the landlord is calling time. He earns a 2.5% gross yield and his mortgage is way above that, and worse ? there's no bid

We are so close to Armageddon

Complete idiocy. Residential and commercial properties are set to reprice higher. Insolvencies are set to be legendary. And all because wage gains in sectors bereft of post Brexit vacancies are surging

Oh, and the price of sourdough is much higher

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon; someone please tell the B of E

Brace, Brace, Brace

https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh/status/1670114708844695552

[el malo]

El Euribor de junio empieza dar pánico



@el malo, ya te decía que la bajada del Euríbor era momentánea y que no podía durar. Hombre de poca fe .

El blog de Calópez es una mina de oro revelando el wishful thinking. Rajan de Lagarde, empiezan a autoconvencerse de que los tipos no pueden durar así mucho tiempo, Lagarde vuelve a repetir que nada de aflojar hasta que la inflación se controle, chasco y cabreo, y vuelta a empezar. Con la hipoteca cada vez más cara y con cada vez menos oxígeno.

Con qué poquito nos conformamos (no tú, Benzino, en general) si celebramos que el Euríbor esté a nivel de tipos oficiales. Cuando esté a tipos + 0.5% o + 1% entonces sí, volveremos a la "normalidad".

Lo que no se es qué cabeza pensante en España se pudo meter en una hipoteca a más de 20 años a variable con los tipos al 0 

Al menos aquí en UK no tienes otra opción. Tienes fijo unos años (normalemente 2 ó 5) y luego refinancias. Esta semana el Libor está al 5.8. Por curiosidad me acabo de meter en la pagina de Lloyds a ver qué ofrecen. Hasta hace dos días tenían una sección con sus hipotecas y sus porcentajes bien visibles. Esas páginas hoy están "caidas por mantenimiento"  el resto de la página fuciona perfectamente, es sólo esa página.

https://www.lloydsbank.com/mortgages/mortgage-calculator.html?MT=FTB

En Zoopla no hago más que ver pisos de una habitación por más de medio millón de libras. Me pregunto a quién se los van a vender.. ¿a first time buyers? ¿con intereses de más del 6%? ¿A inversores buy-to-let? ¿a cuánto hay que alquilar el zulo para sacarle rendimiento?

El propio Lloyds ya ofrece más de un 4.5% por depósitos: https://www.lloydsbank.com/savings.html
Por ese medio millón te dan (antes de impuestos) más de £22,000. Sin preocuparte de gastos ni de inquilinos que no paguen.

[el malo]

https://www.ft.com/content/9940b3b2-1988-4658-95cb-fa312bd23185

UK households remortgaging in 2024 face £2,900 rise in annual payments

New estimate of rising cost of borrowing increases pressure on Rishi Sunak to help families

UK households that come to the end of fixed-rate mortgage deals next year face an average £2,900 increase in annual payments, putting Rishi Sunak under pressure to defuse an election-year time bomb.

The estimated increase in payments by the Resolution Foundation think-tank reflects concern that the UK has a worse inflation problem than other countries and that the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates to almost 6 per cent next year, when a general election is expected.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey on Friday called for a targeted £3bn “mortgage protection fund” for people whose homes would otherwise be repossessed, in a sign of growing political heat on the issue.

But the prime minister and his chancellor Jeremy Hunt argue that such a move would be dangerous because it would fuel inflation.

Sunak said on Wednesday that the government’s “number one economic priority” was taming high inflation.

The political row comes after another week of mortgage rate increases by lenders, including NatWest, Nationwide and HSBC, in moves that followed poor official inflation data last month that prompted financial markets to increase their expectations of interest rate rises by the BoE.

“It is serious,” said one senior government figure. “That’s why we are fully focused on halving inflation by the end of the year. Inflation is the disease in the economy.”

The BoE is likely to raise interest rates from 4.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent when the Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday, although some economists think a larger increase is possible if there is another bad set of inflation figures on Wednesday.


(...)

acerca del artículo, tuit-comentario de un muy colorido hedge fund manager conocido por los lares anglo por haber estado en el lado de los ganadores de 2008. ha estado criticando las subidas de tipos y dice que solo hay cuatro personas en el mundo que comprendan como funciona el dinero:

Anyone read the front page of the Pink Times today ?

Totally insane...

It feels like a combination of the £ eviction from the euro exchange rate system a million years ago and all those  preposterous declarations to raise rates to infinity.

On 16 Sep 92 they raised rates from 10 to 12%. Market didn't budge. Kept selling Sterling. No way they could not crush the economy at 12% rates. The bluff was ignored

Feeling peeved, the raised again, later that day, to 15%, and that's when everyone knew the gig was really truly up

Soros and Stan yawned, yeah go immolate yourself, they sold more £

You see, threats have to be credible...

And 2006 till 2008 when mortgages had to reprice from teaser to reality

The BofE was really hopeless back then as well, they didn't cut rates, they spoke gibberish about being worried about inflation. The economy was set to implode

Their " huff and I'll puff  and I'll blow your house down" rhetoric is possibly worse now

Yeah, go and immolate yourself

Present expectation of terminal British rates are 6 %

This would imply an average hike in annual mortgage pyts of £2.9k

Its not gonna happen, its already a bloodbath

I got my ex family home over there and the landlord is calling time. He earns a 2.5% gross yield and his mortgage is way above that, and worse ? there's no bid

We are so close to Armageddon

Complete idiocy. Residential and commercial properties are set to reprice higher. Insolvencies are set to be legendary. And all because wage gains in sectors bereft of post Brexit vacancies are surging

Oh, and the price of sourdough is much higher

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon; someone please tell the B of E

Brace, Brace, Brace

https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh/status/1670114708844695552

Eso es lo que pasa cuando no exigen un examen antes de escribir en Twitter.

A lo primero, ¿cuál es el problema de que el landlord esté palmando pasta? ¿Desde cuándo eso es problema del inquilino? Su pisitófila cabecita mezclada con un síndrome de Estocolmo de proporciones épicas no entiende que en una inversión inmobiliaria se puede perder. Una mezcla de pánico e ira de la que nos hablaba asustadísimos.

A lo segundo, por alguna razón mágica, las propiedades van a "reprice higher" pero las insolvencias van a ser legendarias  igual es que las propiedades no pueden "reprice higher" porque no encuentran comprador ni siquiera a su precio actual.

Y la culpa del BoE, que no entiende de dinero 

[sudden and sharp]

Celebrar... lo que se dice celebrar... cuándo los jóvenes puedan emanciparse, motu propio, y a una edad razonable.





Hasta entonces... HODL.   

[tomasjos]

La mercherizacion terminal ha llegado. Miren y lloren

https://www.elespanol.com/invertia/disruptores-innovadores/disruptores/startups/20230619/comprar-habitaciones-metodo-inversion-propuesta-disruptiva-jovenes/770923018_0.html

[sudden and sharp]

La mercherizacion terminal ha llegado. Miren y lloren

https://www.elespanol.com/invertia/disruptores-innovadores/disruptores/startups/20230619/comprar-habitaciones-metodo-inversion-propuesta-disruptiva-jovenes/770923018_0.html

Ahí lasdao.

¡Qué vergüenza, señores!

[Vipamo]

La mercherizacion terminal ha llegado. Miren y lloren

https://www.elespanol.com/invertia/disruptores-innovadores/disruptores/startups/20230619/comprar-habitaciones-metodo-inversion-propuesta-disruptiva-jovenes/770923018_0.html

Eso es legal?

[Lem]

acerca del artículo, tuit-comentario de un muy colorido hedge fund manager conocido por los lares anglo por haber estado en el lado de los ganadores de 2008. ha estado criticando las subidas de tipos y dice que solo hay cuatro personas en el mundo que comprendan como funciona el dinero:

Anyone read the front page of the Pink Times today ?

Totally insane...

It feels like a combination of the £ eviction from the euro exchange rate system a million years ago and all those  preposterous declarations to raise rates to infinity.

On 16 Sep 92 they raised rates from 10 to 12%. Market didn't budge. Kept selling Sterling. No way they could not crush the economy at 12% rates. The bluff was ignored

Feeling peeved, the raised again, later that day, to 15%, and that's when everyone knew the gig was really truly up

Soros and Stan yawned, yeah go immolate yourself, they sold more £

You see, threats have to be credible...

And 2006 till 2008 when mortgages had to reprice from teaser to reality

The BofE was really hopeless back then as well, they didn't cut rates, they spoke gibberish about being worried about inflation. The economy was set to implode

Their " huff and I'll puff  and I'll blow your house down" rhetoric is possibly worse now

Yeah, go and immolate yourself

Present expectation of terminal British rates are 6 %

This would imply an average hike in annual mortgage pyts of £2.9k

Its not gonna happen, its already a bloodbath

I got my ex family home over there and the landlord is calling time. He earns a 2.5% gross yield and his mortgage is way above that, and worse ? there's no bid

We are so close to Armageddon

Complete idiocy. Residential and commercial properties are set to reprice higher. Insolvencies are set to be legendary. And all because wage gains in sectors bereft of post Brexit vacancies are surging

Oh, and the price of sourdough is much higher

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon; someone please tell the B of E

Brace, Brace, Brace

https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh/status/1670114708844695552

Eso es lo que pasa cuando no exigen un examen antes de escribir en Twitter.

A lo primero, ¿cuál es el problema de que el landlord esté palmando pasta? ¿Desde cuándo eso es problema del inquilino? Su pisitófila cabecita mezclada con un síndrome de Estocolmo de proporciones épicas no entiende que en una inversión inmobiliaria se puede perder. Una mezcla de pánico e ira de la que nos hablaba asustadísimos.

A lo segundo, por alguna razón mágica, las propiedades van a "reprice higher" pero las insolvencias van a ser legendarias  igual es que las propiedades no pueden "reprice higher" porque no encuentran comprador ni siquiera a su precio actual.

Y la culpa del BoE, que no entiende de dinero 

la verdad es que me resultó bastante chocante el tuit (de ahí que lo traiga) precisamente por que no esperaba comentarios tan, digamos, burdos. claro que tiene otras perlas, como "bubbles are fine, kind of sustainable, as long as there is not zero financing" (hay leña para el ECB y Trichet por subir los tipos en 2008) en esta entrevista durante la crisis de las Trussonomics:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxo24AbZqCk

[Negrule]

Que tostón, de aquí a un tiempo ya tendremos todos los mass media  con la habitaokupa. 

No se puede volver al año 2000, no? Lo primero que haría sería comprarme una vivienda, la de dolores de cabeza que me quitaba del medio y no estaría lo suficientemente bien pagado. Por dios que tostón con el monotema. Nunca me hubiera imaginado que el tema de la vivienda ocuparía tanto espacio en mi vida, nunca.

Salut

[Lem]

La mercherizacion terminal ha llegado. Miren y lloren

https://www.elespanol.com/invertia/disruptores-innovadores/disruptores/startups/20230619/comprar-habitaciones-metodo-inversion-propuesta-disruptiva-jovenes/770923018_0.html

el video original pasó por aquí gracias a Cadavre. viendo que tras el engañoso nombre de "SeedRocket" hay una "aceleradora" de mierda española (con Encinar entre los mentores) no sorprende que hayan ganado su promoción o como le llamen. "doce horas de dura reunión" para lanzarse con la idea dicen. para mear y no echar gota.

[sudden and sharp]

Para bella... la patá nel culo.




Puñales en el Vaticano: el Papa envía a Alemania al todopoderoso aliado de Benedicto XVI
https://www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/2023-06-19/punales-en-el-vaticano-el-papa-envia-a-alemania-al-ex-todopoderoso-secretario-de-benedicto-xvi_3667919/
El exsecretario de Benedicto XVI, Georg Gänswein, lleva tres meses relegado de su cargo y regresará a su diócesis en Friburgo, sin ningún encargo específico a pesar de ser arzobispo







----
Otro teutón mandón... supongo.       [ Ve tomando nota, Asdrubal...  ]

[sudden and sharp]

El Banco de España constata una aceleración económica y sube al 2,3% su previsión del PIB
https://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2023-06-19/banco-de-espana-aceleracion-economica-sube-2-3-prevision_3668324/
Calcula que el PIB habrá crecido un 0,6% en el segundo trimestre, una décima más que el primero, pero percibe señales de debilidad en los últimos días de mayo y el inicio de junio




Igual no les hace gracia a los carolingios... bueno... y digo yo: ¿A quién conyo le importa lo que opinen estos?




-------
[ Asdrubal... ya sabes. ]