Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2023-03-31/es-hora-de-decir-adios-al-pensamiento-magico-sobre-china.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/fed-seen-fence-interest-rate-hike-may-meeting-2023-03-31/

Fed may stick with one more rate hike even as inflation cools

March 31 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers may take some comfort from data on Friday showing a key gauge of inflation cooling in February, but it's far from clear if it marks enough headway for U.S. central bankers to end their year-long campaign to hike interest rates.

The Commerce Department reported that personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 5.0% in February from a year earlier, down from the 5.3% increase in January. A measure of core inflation - seen as a better gauge of future price increases - came in a shade lower than expected at 4.6%.

But with the Fed targeting 2% annual inflation, central bankers will likely be wary about declaring victory too soon.

It is "early days yet in terms of assessing whether we really have gone as far as we need to go," Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in an interview on Bloomberg Television on Friday.

Potentially worrisome to central bank policymakers may be continued pressure in services inflation, excluding housing, a measure that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he is watching carefully.

KPMG's Diane Swonk said she estimates the latest reading puts the year-over-year rise in core services inflation at 4.6%, up from the 4.4% pace in the fourth quarter of 2022. That stickiness could prompt the Fed to do more and risk an "overshoot on rate hikes and a deeper, more scarring recession," she said.

Pricing of futures contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate implied a slightly better-than-even chance the central bank will stand pat at its May 2-3 policy meeting, reversing previous bets that it was more likely to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 5.00%-5.25% range.

Traders also were betting more heavily that the Fed would start cutting rates as soon as July, with the policy rate seen reaching the 4.25%-4.50% range by the end of this year, based on interest-rate contract pricing.

Fed policymakers earlier this month signaled that most of them expect one more quarter-of-a-percentage-point increase this year and, contrary to market expectations, they don't plan to deliver any interest rate cuts until 2024.

They will have plenty more economic data to weigh in the countdown to their next policy meeting, including a monthly read on the job market next week and further data on inflation due later in April.

Even more important will be their read of stress in the banking sector following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this month, including whether tightening credit conditions are slowing demand enough that further rate hikes would be overkill.

[Derby]

A mi modo de ver el enfoque no es exacto, pero sí es cierto que los salarios están sirviendo de mecanismo compensatorio. Y no es de ahora. Quien parte y reparte se lleva la mejor parte, o no? 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/31/opinion/federal-reserve-inflation-jerome-powell.html

The Fed’s War on Inflation Is a Class War

(...) Since at least the wage-price spiral of the 1970s, the Fed has been “extremely focused on limiting the power of labor,” Dr. Mason said. In 1982, staff members at the Federal Open Market Committee celebrated the fact that “the prolonged period of slack labor markets has paid handsome dividends in an easing of wage inflation.” Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman who brought down double-digit inflation in the early 1980s by engineering recessions, famously carried around an index card showing the schedule of upcoming collective bargaining contracts, and he explicitly saw President Ronald Reagan’s breaking of the Professional Air Traffic Controllers Organization strike as a win in the battle against inflation. “Volcker was very clear that what he was doing required getting negotiated wage settlements down,” said Andrew Elrod, a research specialist at United Teachers Los Angeles who has studied the history of the Fed.

In a paper on the Fed’s policies with regard to unions, Daniel J.B. Mitchell and Christopher L. Erickson noted that when the Teamsters staged a strike against United Parcel Service in 1997, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert McTeer, worried that the settlement they eventually reached would “go a long way toward undermining the wage flexibility that we started to get in labor markets with the air traffic controllers’ strike.”

And yet the Fed’s reasoning — that inflation must be tamed by taming the American worker — doesn’t fit neatly with our current economy. In part, that’s because this economy is warped by a pandemic that led to all sorts of unpredictable outcomes. Supply chain snarls drove up the prices of goods when they became scarce, and then price increases shifted to services as businesses abruptly reopened after abruptly shutting down, throwing everything into turmoil. The economy recovered pandemic-induced job losses at a remarkable clip, bringing unemployment to the lowest rate since 1969 in January, but that led to a temporary surge in demand. Working from home has changed rental markets for offices and homes. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drove up energy prices.

The labor market has proved remarkably resilient, but workers still have catching up to do from their pandemic losses. We’ve recovered all the lost jobs but haven’t created all the jobs we were on track to produce before it happened. People in their prime working years are finally back in the labor force at the same rate as before, but that rate would have kept increasing without the crisis. Even without the recent bank runs, the recovery is still fragile. “We’re at risk as long as the Fed is saying the unemployment rate has to go up,” Mr. Amarnath said.

“Even if the labor market is not the cause of inflation, we’re using the labor market as the offsetting mechanism,” Mr. Amarnath added. “It’s a very perverse and collaterally damaging approach.”

[Derby]

[ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQRULxnH6yM ]

Tal cual, sí. Hemos llegado a un nivel de desregulación emocional difícil de asumir en una convivencia. Yo lo calificaría de desparrame emocional, y se compensa a base de aliviarse con el prójimo. En otra época veríamos más violencia por las calles, ahora no se dan las circunstancias para ello (la gente tiene mucho que perder). Cabe esperar que la MN reaccione buscando (ansiando) certeza, seguridad y firmeza: la calma después de la tempestad.

[Derby]

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/home-builder-porter-davis-in-trouble-20230330-p5cwvn.html

Building industry ‘on the brink’ after two groups collapse in 24 hours

Australia’s construction industry is reeling after one of the nation’s largest home builders and a prominent civil construction group collapsed on the same day, sparking warnings that more groups will go to the wall as costs increases bite and demand weakens.

The collapse of Melbourne-based Porter Davis, the country’s 12th largest home builder, immediately stopped work on Friday on the 1500 homes it had under way in Victoria – and another 200 in Queensland – after it was unable to find a last-minute buyer or financial backer to cover a funding shortfall estimated at as much as $20 million.

A further 779 customers who had signed a contract and paid a deposit are also affected, while 410 staff were also made redundant on Friday morning after liquidators were appointed. The liquidation does not include Porter Davis’ Englehart homes business.

Lloyds Group also appointed administrators on Friday after collapsing under increasing cost pressures. The company – which has built many schools – employs 200 staff and has 59 projects under way across Victoria and NSW.

The collapsed companies join a growing list of major builders suffering from rising cost of products and labour, as well as less funding appetite from banks and investors and a slowing market.

Several industry sources, speaking anonymously to discuss confidential financial matters, suggested that at least three other well-known home builders were struggling to stay afloat.

Australia’s largest home builder Metricon narrowly avoided administration last year after it put together a rescue package with the support of shareholders, following the sudden death of its founder.

Grant Thornton partner Matt Byrnes, who has been appointed as a liquidator to Porter Davis, said the problems with the construction industry had been looming for some time.

“There’s a number of headwinds that have confronted construction more broadly – rising input costs; difficulties in accessing labor and access to finance has tightened,” Byrnes said.

“We’ve seen that over the last six or nine months it’s more difficult for Australian businesses to access funding, whether it’s through capital or through debt.”

KordaMentha senior partner Craig Shepard, who worked on Grocon’s collapse, said the construction industry was on the brink of a crisis.

“It’s the contagion impact that people should be worried about following today’s appointment of liquidators to Porter Davis. There’s a number of other participants in the volume home building sector that are in a similar position and might be in trouble in the coming months,” he said.

Data and analytics firm Equifax said construction insolvencies have grown by 90 per cent over the financial year to date, part of a downward trend playing out across the sector. About a third of construction companies Equifax assesses were downgraded in January.

Many issues are bringing building and construction firms to the brink said Kristen Beadle, manager of insolvency policy at professional accounting body CPA Australia. Without commenting on the Porter Davis collapse specifically, she said to expect further insolvencies in the coming months.

“It is a big issue for a lot of them because what we’ve been told is that they traditionally sort of use that next project to help finish the project before,” Beadle said.

“You need that that sort of pipeline work to keep you going. If that pipeline works, not there it is, it is going to affect them.”

Both the Housing Industry Association and Master Builders Australia moved to reassure consumers, with the MBA describing the rate of collapses as being in line with the rate over the past 10 years and the HIA chief economist Tim Reardon saying the industry was at the tail end of a tough economic cycle.

“There is fragility and volatility in the industry at the moment,” MBA chief executive Denita Wawn said, pointing to a squeeze from fixed price contracts and rising costs from inflation and interest rates.

The Victorian government urged customers caught in the Porter Davis collapse to contact the Victorian Managed Insurance Agency (VMIA) about access to domestic building insurance.

Domestic building insurance must be taken out by a builder where the contract price for the job is more than $16,000 and is designed to protect homeowners for defective or unfinished work if their builder becomes insolvent. Customers can claim up to 20 per cent of their contract price under their insurance up to a value of $300,000.

“Mandatory protections are in place for people engaging residential builders and we urge clients to contact the VMIA to discuss their policies,” a spokesman for Treasurer Tim Pallas said.

“We understand the pressure on builders due to labour and supply chain issues and continue to consult with the industry.”

The VMIA said the Porter Davis’ liquidator was in urgent talks to work out whether there was any potential for another builder to take over current contracts and ongoing builds.

Federal opposition housing spokesman Michael Sukkar said the former Coalition government had worked closely with the home building industry to help it through the dark days of the pandemic, but the federal Labor government was missing in the face of the current problems.
“The Labor government has had no plan to support the residential construction industry during these difficult times, putting businesses and livelihoods at risk,” he said.

A spokesperson for the federal government said Porter Davis’ collapse was concerning.

“We are seeking an update from the state government on the situation,” they said in a statement.

Porter Davis Homes appointed liquidators from Grant Thornton after its search for extra funding or a buyer fell over on Thursday evening. Several large home builders reviewed the business but had decided not to proceed with a deal. Henley Homes, majority owned by Japan’s Sumitomo Forestry Group, was one of the groups that had reviewed the business. KPMG has been appointed receivers over some of Porter Davis’ entities.

The mood was sombre at Porter Davis’ office in the Docklands on Friday as the majority of staff – 410 workers – were made redundant and finished up work. One employee, who has been with the company for eight years and the building industry for 40 years, said the collapse of the company was a sign of the times. “Building is a volatile industry at the moment,” he said. “I’ve never seen it like this.”

Staff entitlements will be covered by the federal government guarantee that covers workers in a business in liquidation. Around 60 workers will be kept on while Grant Thornton seeks buyers for tranches of Porter Davis’ builds.

The majority of Porter Davis’ customers are on fixed contracts and now face higher costs than estimated on their original contract when it is taken over a by a new builder.

The liquidators advised that customers with contracts could register their claims by directly contacting the Victorian Managed Insurance Authority, relating to Victorian builds, or the Queensland Building and Construction Commission, relating to Queensland builds.

Byrnes said it was hoped other builders would pick up some of the contracts that Porter Davis had on hand at the time of its collapse.

“We’re already in discussions with a number of parties who might have an interest in stepping in and taking over some of the contracts,” he said.

“I say ‘some’ because I think it’s unlikely there’ll be a particular buyer come in and take the whole of Porter Davis’ builds. They’ve already been through that process.”

The Commonwealth Bank is the group’s largest secured creditor but the exact size of Porter Davis’ debt with the bank is unclear. The group’s secured creditors have been taking advice from KPMG.

Grant Thornton said in a statement that Porter Davis’ board said they regretted they could not find a funding solution for the group and acknowledged the group’s employees for their hard work. They added they were hopeful that a solution could be found to support Porter Davis customers in completing their homes.

Grant Thornton said liquidators from the firm would now investigate the reasons for the collapse but believed economic conditions were the likely culprit for the group’s collapse.

Subcontractors working for Porter Davis Homes say they haven’t been paid for work done on the volume builder’s projects. John Goddard from Subbies United said multiple subcontractors working on Porter Davis projects had not been paid in the past few months, with some not receiving payments since before Christmas.

“Suppliers have stopped their accounts and subbies are not working for them,” Goddard said. “They’re another box-builder basket case.”

[saturno]

Mejor saltar a mi post siguiente, lo que digo aquí viene de mi desconocimiento)

(click to show/hide)

https://www.expansion.com/economia/politica/2023/03/30/642554c4468aeb8c5e8b4621.html

Saludos.

No entiendo lo que critica. No entiendo bien por qué el aumento de la parte patronal al 1.% y al 0.2 del trabajador iba a ser insostenible.
Que supone un cambio profundo del sistema de equilibrio patronal/trabajo, si.
Que se incrementa la parte "asistencial" (paga la Patronal pero gestiona el Estado), si.

Ese aumento brutal de la carga patronal (del 0,5 al 1%) equivale a aumentar los impuestos al Trabajo sin aumentar los salarios netos. Pero es una redistribución de las ganancias de las empresas hacia el sistema de redistribución. Si resulta insostenible, será para las empresas zombies que salen adelante a base de trabajo de todos modos mal pagado. Pero para las demás, equivale a un impuesto sobre beneficios.  No va a afectar al mercado de trabajo, salvo para mejorarlo.

También se vislumbra la reforma del sistema social ES para alinearlo sobre el sistema asistencial Europeo. Supongo que tienen en las carpetas que el aumento de recaudación financie no sólo las pensiones (de fachada) sino y sobre todo la politica familiar y asistencial para alinearla sobre el resto de la EU (los del Norte occidental).

Intuyo que la posición de la UE ha sido clarita: se acabó el sistema social tercermundista.
La reforma ésta (que no he mirado, encima me afecta por años cotizados) me parece buena.

Las criticas de los actuarios, como este artículo, se basan en el supuesto de que la Patronal mantenga sus costes de Trabbajo como hasta ahora.
Es la Patronal la que no se entera, de hecho, si entiendo bien, es la única que se colocó en contra.

Me voy a fijar, pero creo que la proporción 1% y 0,2% de 2029 es muy muy inferior a lo que tienes en Francia o Alemania incluso que UK. Lo indignante era lo que habia hasta ahora.

La Patronal en cintura. Que se entere de una vez que el Trabajo no es un "activo".
Qué malos recuerdos me vienen.

Edit: Corregido la cotización patronal era hasta ahora del 0,5% y la del empleado 0,1 del salario bruto

[Vipamo]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/31/pacific-trade-deal-brexit-britain-food-standards-economic-benefit
Cita:”and left us open to being sued by multinational corporations in secretive courts”

Yo soy bastante escéptico con la continuidad del Estado del Bienestar tal y como lo conocemos. Seguro que no desaparecerá de un día para otro, pero irá marchitando poco a poco con recortes, retoques y falta de funding. Véase lo que está pasando en Macronlandia.
En los análisis que hace asustadisimos hace muchas veces mención al mismo. Pues yo veo al EBE como parte de la versión originaria del capitalismo renano que se mantuvo y se amplió en tiempos de la Unión Soviética, pero que desde la caída del muro está siendo desmontado paso a paso como un andamio tras la obra.
A nosotros siempre se nos ha dicho que el capitalismo bueno (exitoso) de verdad es el de EEUU, donde no hay nada parecido a lo que había aquí. También habría que analizar cuantos capitalismos hay por el mundo y cuantos de ellos tienen EBE.
Hace poco recibió Scholz al presidente de Bután y alabó la forma de priorizar el “pib” de la felicidad ante los indicadores económicos.
Me temo que aquí ya es muy tarde para eso.


“Las vacas sagradas nunca son sacrificadas, se van marchitando poco a poco hasta que ya no queda nada de ellas”

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-waller-us-inflation-can-drop-without-much-harm-job-market-2023-04-01/

Fed's Waller: US inflation can drop without much harm to job market

SAN FRANCISCO, March 31 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Friday said recent data is consistent with the notion that the U.S. central bank may be able to drive down inflation without serious harm to the labor market.

If people really have begun to believe that prices are going to just keep on rising, then defeating high inflation could require dramatic actions by the Fed to puncture those expectations, Waller said in remarks prepared for an academic conference at the San Francisco Fed.(...)

[Derby]

https://coinpaper.com/1292/eu-to-ban-anonymous-crypto-transfers-of-over-1-000-euro

EU to ban anonymous crypto transfers of over 1,000 euro

European lawmakers almost unanimously voted in favor of the new draft bill limiting anonymous crypto transactions exceeding 1,000 euro. The regulations are yet to be signed into law.

Members of the European Parliament approved three draft bills ramping up regulations around crypto transactions. The legislation deals with money laundering and terrorism financing and is not directly targeted at digital assets. However, once it’s signed into law, it will affect the industry by limiting anonymous transfers to just 1,000 euro.

The package in question includes three bills:

- the so-called EU “single rulebook” detailing rules of performing due diligence on customers, handling transparency of beneficial owners (disclosing the identity of the ultimate owner controlling an entity through a web of other entities), and dealing with “the use of anonymous instruments, such as crypto assets,”

- the 6th anti-money laundering directive ensuring authorities access to “necessary and reliable information,” for example, on “assets stored in free zones,”

- the draft establishing the European Anti-Money Laundering Authority (AMLA) for ensuring compliance with AML/CFT (combating the financing of terrorism) regulations.(...)

[pollo]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/politica/2023/03/30/642554c4468aeb8c5e8b4621.html

Saludos.

No entiendo lo que critica. No entiendo bien por qué el aumento de la parte patronal al 1.% y al 0.2 del trabajador iba a ser insostenible.
Que supone un cambio profundo del sistema de equilibrio patronal/trabajo, si.
Que se incrementa la parte "asistencial" (paga la Patronal pero gestiona el Estado), si.

Ese aumento brutal de la carga patronal (del 0.1 al 1%) equivale a aumentar los impuestos al Trabajo sin aumentar los salarios netos. Pero es una redistribución de las ganancias de las empresas hacia el sistema de redistribución. Si resulta insostenible, será para las empresas zombies que salen adelante a base de trabajo de todos modos mal pagado. Pero para las demás, equivale a un impuesto sobre beneficios.  No va a afectar al mercado de trabajo, salvo para mejorarlo.

También se vislumbra la reforma del sistema social ES para alinearlo sobre el sistema asistencial Europeo. Supongo que tienen en las carpetas que el aumento de recaudación financie no sólo las pensiones (de fachada) sino y sobre todo la politica familiar y asistencial para alinearla sobre el resto de la EU (los del Norte occidental).

Intuyo que la posición de la UE ha sido clarita: se acabó el sistema social tercermundista.
La reforma ésta (que no he mirado, encima me afecta por años cotizados) me parece buena.

Las criticas de los actuarios, como este artículo, se basan en el supuesto de que la Patronal mantenga sus costes de Trabbajo como hasta ahora.
Es la Patronal la que no se entera, de hecho, si entiendo bien, es la única que se colocó en contra.

Me voy a fijar, pero creo que la proporción 1% y 0,2% de 2029 es muy muy inferior a lo que tienes en Francia o Alemania incluso que UK. Lo indignante era lo que habia hasta ahora.

La Patronal en cintura. Que se entere de una vez que el Trabajo no es un "activo".
Qué malos recuerdos me vienen.

No dejan de ser lloriqueos de la clase a la que representa el articulista.

Cuando fue necesario, en EE.UU. la carga impositiva sobre las empresas llego a ser superior al 90%, se mantuvo muchos años por encima del 40% y después ya vino el cachondeo actual (con el resto del mundo siguiendo la estela).

No veo que se haya hundido nada. Podrá discreparse por unos motivos u otros, pero la sostenibilidad no es uno de ellos.

El popularcapitalismo es lo que nos ha traído: razonamientos infantiles para todas las clases: mío mío mío.

[pollo]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/31/pacific-trade-deal-brexit-britain-food-standards-economic-benefit
Cita:”and left us open to being sued by multinational corporations in secretive courts”

Yo soy bastante escéptico con la continuidad del Estado del Bienestar tal y como lo conocemos. Seguro que no desaparecerá de un día para otro, pero irá marchitando poco a poco con recortes, retoques y falta de funding. Véase lo que está pasando en Macronlandia.
En los análisis que hace asustadisimos hace muchas veces mención al mismo. Pues yo veo al EBE como parte de la versión originaria del capitalismo renano que se mantuvo y se amplió en tiempos de la Unión Soviética, pero que desde la caída del muro está siendo desmontado paso a paso como un andamio tras la obra.
A nosotros siempre se nos ha dicho que el capitalismo bueno (exitoso) de verdad es el de EEUU, donde no hay nada parecido a lo que había aquí. También habría que analizar cuantos capitalismos hay por el mundo y cuantos de ellos tienen EBE.
Hace poco recibió Scholz al presidente de Bután y alabó la forma de priorizar el “pib” de la felicidad ante los indicadores económicos.
Me temo que aquí ya es muy tarde para eso.


“Las vacas sagradas nunca son sacrificadas, se van marchitando poco a poco hasta que ya no queda nada de ellas”

Pues mira que yo creo que es exactamente al contrario, porque lo que tu dices que es el futuro yo lo percibo como el pasado y presente.

Hasta ahora se estuvo dinamitando poco a poco, en silencio y discretamente, y ahora es necesario para el sistema que se revierta, porque resulta que en otros sistemas empieza a hacerse obvio que se mejora la calidad de vida y aquí ha ido a peor, y ya no hay incentivos para que la gente se moleste en hacerlo bien.

Cuando digo dinamitando me refiero a dispersar los recursos en mil millones de chorradas en lugar de focalizarlos en las cosas verdaderamente necesarias.

A partir de ahora va a haber presión competitiva en lugar de mirarnos el ombligo y vendernos casitas unos a otros, y creo que eso no es malo, porque por primera vez en varias décadas, habrá que priorizar y ser eficientes y eficaces.

Dices que desde la caída del muro se ha ido desmontando. Pues yo digo que se está levantando otro muro, y no hace falta nada más que contemplar el "diálogo" entre potencias. Poco a poco, pero es en la dirección que vamos. Veremos cuánto tarda en haber enfrentamiento abierto entre China y EE.UU. (y por consiguiente, sus esferas de influencia).

[sudden and sharp]

A mi modo de ver el enfoque no es exacto, pero sí es cierto que los salarios están sirviendo de mecanismo compensatorio. Y no es de ahora. Quien parte y reparte se lleva la mejor parte, o no? 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/31/opinion/federal-reserve-inflation-jerome-powell.html

The Fed’s War on Inflation Is a Class War

(...) Since at least the wage-price spiral of the 1970s, the Fed has been “extremely focused on limiting the power of labor,” Dr. Mason said. In 1982, staff members at the Federal Open Market Committee celebrated the fact that “the prolonged period of slack labor markets has paid handsome dividends in an easing of wage inflation.” Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman who brought down double-digit inflation in the early 1980s by engineering recessions, famously carried around an index card showing the schedule of upcoming collective bargaining contracts, and he explicitly saw President Ronald Reagan’s breaking of the Professional Air Traffic Controllers Organization strike as a win in the battle against inflation. “Volcker was very clear that what he was doing required getting negotiated wage settlements down,” said Andrew Elrod, a research specialist at United Teachers Los Angeles who has studied the history of the Fed.

In a paper on the Fed’s policies with regard to unions, Daniel J.B. Mitchell and Christopher L. Erickson noted that when the Teamsters staged a strike against United Parcel Service in 1997, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert McTeer, worried that the settlement they eventually reached would “go a long way toward undermining the wage flexibility that we started to get in labor markets with the air traffic controllers’ strike.”

And yet the Fed’s reasoning — that inflation must be tamed by taming the American worker — doesn’t fit neatly with our current economy. In part, that’s because this economy is warped by a pandemic that led to all sorts of unpredictable outcomes. Supply chain snarls drove up the prices of goods when they became scarce, and then price increases shifted to services as businesses abruptly reopened after abruptly shutting down, throwing everything into turmoil. The economy recovered pandemic-induced job losses at a remarkable clip, bringing unemployment to the lowest rate since 1969 in January, but that led to a temporary surge in demand. Working from home has changed rental markets for offices and homes. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drove up energy prices.

The labor market has proved remarkably resilient, but workers still have catching up to do from their pandemic losses. We’ve recovered all the lost jobs but haven’t created all the jobs we were on track to produce before it happened. People in their prime working years are finally back in the labor force at the same rate as before, but that rate would have kept increasing without the crisis. Even without the recent bank runs, the recovery is still fragile. “We’re at risk as long as the Fed is saying the unemployment rate has to go up,” Mr. Amarnath said.

“Even if the labor market is not the cause of inflation, we’re using the labor market as the offsetting mechanism,” Mr. Amarnath added. “It’s a very perverse and collaterally damaging approach.”

Nah... es el merkao. (No confundir con el otro.)

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

[ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQRULxnH6yM ]

Tal cual, sí. Hemos llegado a un nivel de desregulación emocional difícil de asumir en una convivencia. Yo lo calificaría de desparrame emocional, y se compensa a base de aliviarse con el prójimo. En otra época veríamos más violencia por las calles, ahora no se dan las circunstancias para ello (la gente tiene mucho que perder). Cabe esperar que la MN reaccione buscando (ansiando) certeza, seguridad y firmeza: la calma después de la tempestad.

Son los signos de lo que viene.


siglo V
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bagaudas

Siglo XV
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categor%C3%ADa:Rebeliones_del_siglo_XV

1789.
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gran_Miedo

[saturno]

(He rectificado mi errata (post anterior), la parte patronal pasa del 0,5 al 1% y la salarial del 0,1 al 0,2% para 2029)

Recuerden que el EBE (Estado de Bienestar Español) está imbricado con el sistema social, es decir hay cotizaciones obligatorias para 40 cosas, no sólo para la jubilación y el paro. Cuidado con las comparativas, por tanto. Las estadisticas son por cotizaciones obligatorias, y son las patronales, no sólo la parte de cotizaciones de jubilación de los asalariados.

Fuente de le Figaro derecha (~= Expansión)
https://www.lefigaro.fr/impots/2013/11/20/05003-20131120ARTFIG00341-la-france-championne-d-europe-des-charges-sociales-pesant-sur-les-entreprises.php

Fiscalidad de la empresas, con cotizaciones patronales (solamente)
Verde=Impuesto sobre beneficios
Rojo=Cotizaciones patronales
Azul =Otras tasas empresariales (IBI, imp.dividendos, vehiculos, etc.)


Y si este gráfico es correcto, se entiende mejor la postura de la patronal española. Lo que no se entiende es a donde va el dinero, si es sólo a jubilaciones, el problema no son las cotizaciones, sino las pensiones.


Traigo la comparativa de cotizaciones UE por el INSEE galo. Datos de 2019

v/FR=https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/4501675?sommaire=4504425#consulter
PDF= https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/fichier/4501675/ECRT2020_F6-3.pdf
v/ES= https://www-insee-fr.translate.goog/fr/statistiques/4501675?sommaire=4504425&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=es&_x_tr_hl=en-US#consulter

Col1 - Coste de M.O. horaria 2019
Col 2- Salario bruto horario medio
Col 3- % de salario y complementos brutos en el coste del trabajo
Col 4- Cotizaciones sociales patronales (en euros)
Para el porcentaje, habrá que hacer la regla de 3 con el coste horario  (col4/col2)



Coste de la M.O. en Industria y Servicios mercantiles

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecbs-de-guindos-warns-broad-risks-financial-sector-2023-04-01/

ECB's De Guindos warns of broad risks in financial sector

CERNOBBIO, Italy, April 1 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank (ECB) is monitoring current market tensions closely and will act to preserve price and financial stability in the euro area, ECB vice-president Luis de Guindos said in a speech on Saturday.

"...In our view, vulnerabilities in the financial system prevail in the non-bank financial sector, which grew fast and increased its risk-taking during the low interest rate environment," De Guindos told the Ambrosetti business forum in northern Italy.