Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[Derby]

El artículo es del año pasado. Según el artículo, la bajada de la natalidad no se debe exclusivamente a causas de tipo económico (coyuntura) o de políticas...sino a un cambio más permanente de prioridades. Pero ¿qué es primero, el huevo o la gallina? 

https://econofact.org/the-mystery-of-the-declining-u-s-birth-rate

The Mystery of the Declining U.S. Birth Rate



The Issue:

Up until the Great Recession, the number of babies born per woman in the United States had been quite stable for the previous three decades. The birth rate fluctuated within a relatively narrow range, often along with economic conditions, with fewer babies born during lean times and with births recovering when economic growth was stronger. However, the U.S. birth rate has fallen precipitously since the 2007 Great Recession, with no signs of reversing. This decline cannot be explained by demographic, economic, or policy changes. It is reflective of lower childbearing rates across successive cohorts.

The Facts:

The Great Recession disrupted a stable period in birth rates. For the almost three decades between 1980 and 2007, the U.S. birth rate hovered between 65 and 70 births per 1,000 women between the ages of 15 and 44. The birth rate followed a predictable pro-cyclical pattern, falling during economic downturns and recovering when the economy improves. But something changed around the time of the Great Recession; the birth rate fell precipitously, and it did not recover when the economy improved. Rather, the U.S. birth rate has continued a steady descent. As of 2020, the U.S. birth rate was 55.8 births per 1,000 women between the ages of 15 and 44, a decline of almost 20 percent from the rate of 69.3 in 2007.

The decline in births cannot readily be explained by changing population composition. The sustained decline in U.S. births since 2007 has been driven by declining births among many demographic groups, rather than by changes in population composition. Births have fallen among women in their early 20s, late 20s, and teens (in fact, the teen birth rate in the U.S. has been falling steadily since the mid-1990s). Births have fallen among white women, Black women, and Hispanic women, with the largest declines among Hispanic women. Births have also fallen among women with and without college degrees and among both married and unmarried women. The population of U.S. women of childbearing age has actually shifted toward groups that tend to have higher birth rates, not lower birth rates, with the exception of a rising share of women of childbearing age being unmarried.

No obvious policy or economic factor can explain much of the decline. The onset of the Great Recession clearly played a role in the early stages of the decline. Beyond that, it is difficult to identify any policy or economic factor that can statistically account for the continued decline. Casual observers have suggested that a variety of potential factors are responsible for the decline, including greater take-up of highly effective contraception, the high cost of raising children, improved occupational opportunities for women, and the high level of student debt carried by young adults. Our research finds little empirical support for these possible explanations. Moreover, none of the measures that have been shown in previous research to have a causal effect on annual birth rates – such as labor market conditions (beyond the Great Recession), certain social policy indicators (such as child support enforcement) or reproductive health policy measures (such as abortion clinic closures) – have changed in ways that can account for the drop in the national birth rate since 2007.



Successive generations of women are having fewer children at every age. While the largest decreases in birth rates have occurred amongst women under 30, it is possible that this reflects more than a general tendency among women to delay childbirth and that there are generational changes taking place. Cohorts of U.S. women born after the mid-1980s are having fewer births at all ages. The above figure shows that subsequent cohorts of women who were born in the windows 1968 to 1972, 1973 to 1977, and 1978 to1982 all had similar childbearing age profiles throughout their lives. Then, the cohort of women born between 1983 and 1987 had fewer children throughout their 20s and their 30s. The next two five-year birth cohorts of women (born between 1988 and 1997) have fewer children than earlier cohorts. In other words, later cohorts of mothers have fewer children at every age than women in earlier cohorts. The likelihood of births “catching up” at older ages across these cohorts seems limited.

Shifting priorities could be the primary driver for the decline in the birth rate since 2007. There is survey and anecdotal data suggesting that perhaps more recent cohorts of young adults have different preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and views about parenting norms that are driving the decline in the U.S. birth rates. These shifts could reflect preferences and norms that changed primarily in earlier decades, long before 2007 – such as more intensive parenting practices and expanded economic opportunities for women – in ways that profoundly shaped the world views of today’s younger adults.

A sustained decline in the birth rate would have important social and economic consequences. A temporary decline in annual birth rates does not necessarily portend social and economic challenges. However, the decline in annual birth rates in the U.S. has been ongoing for many years and as shown above, corresponds to a decline in the number of children a woman has over her lifetime, on average. This trend predicts a persistently lower fertility rate in the U.S., which, absent increased immigration, would lead to a smaller workforce and an older population. In general, a smaller workforce and an aging population would have negative implications for economic productivity and per capita income growth. In addition, the combination of a smaller workforce and an aging population puts fiscal pressure on social insurance programs, like Social Security, that rely on tax payments from current workers to pay the benefits of current retirees. Some observers point to the idea that, all else equal, a shrinking population will reduce humans’ carbon footprint, and hence have positive environmental effects. We are not aware of any evidence, though, that population declines corresponding to the size of the drop in U.S. fertility would have a meaningful effect on climate outcomes.

The onset of the COVID pandemic added another layer of uncertainty to childbearing trends in the United States. Births conceived between the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 and the end of that year fell by around 60,000. This is a smaller drop than many had expected, given the dramatic rise in unemployment and in economic and public health uncertainty at the outset of the pandemic. It is possible that government assistance blunted the economic impact of the pandemic on many families.

What this Means:

Although the 2007 recession seems to have played a role in decreasing the number of children born per woman in the United States, the lack of any rebound in births and, in fact, their continued decline following the end of the recession suggests a role for factors beyond the Great Recession. A decline in annual birth rates does not necessarily imply a long-term reduction in childbearing. If the recent decline in annual birth rates simply reflects women pushing off having children from their 20s to their 30s, then annual birth rates will eventually rebound and the total number of children the average U.S. woman has over her lifetime will not change. But the decline in annual birth rates since 2007 is consistent with more recent cohorts of women having fewer births. Those cohorts have not completed their childbearing years yet, but the number of births they would have to have at older ages to catch up to the lifetime childbearing rates of earlier cohorts is so large that it seems unlikely they will do so. If the decline in births reflects a (semi)permanent shift in priorities, as opposed to transitory economic or policy factors, the U.S. is likely to see a sustained decline in birth rates and a general decline in fertility for the foreseeable future. This has consequences for projected U.S. economic growth and productivity, as well as the fiscal sustainability of current social insurance programs.

[Derby]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65623561

Purplebricks snapped up by rival Strike for £1



Troubled online estate agent Purplebricks has agreed a deal to sell its business and assets to rival Strike, for the token sum of £1.

Purplebricks' aim was to create a lower-cost, more flexible estate agent by charging house sellers a flat rate.

But the UK firm, which was once valued at more than $1bn (£800m), put itself up for sale in February.

It said the deal will lead to job losses, and that its boss will step down after the sale.

The announcement sent its shares tumbling by around 40%.

Over the past 18 months there have been a number of management reshuffles at the company, a restructure, and one of its shareholders called for the removal of its chairman, Paul Pindar.

The company revealed in February that it expected to lose between £15-£20m this year.

It said last week that it was in exclusive talks with Strike.

The sale price of £1 is down to the company burning through cash, the BBC understands.

The firm is spending £3m per month on costs including staff, hosting and marketing.

Purplebricks has been making staff redundant over the past 12 months, and sales have taken a hit.

But out of more than 750 employees, the BBC understands the firm will try to keep many on.

Its chief executive Helena Marston is set to resign after the sale completes, and a number of directors will also step down.

Mr Pindar said: "I am disappointed with the financial value outcome, both as a 5% shareholder myself and for shareholders who have supported the company under my and the board's stewardship.

"However, there was no other proposal or offer which provided a better return for shareholders, with the same certainty of funding and speed of delivery necessary to provide the stability the company needs."

The firm said the deal would transfer its £33m liabilities to its new owner.

Purplebricks was founded in 2012 by brothers Michael and Kenny Bruce, who grew up on a council estate in Larne, County Antrim.

The company had early success, but it has seen its share price fall 98% over the past five years.

In 2017 its shares suffered after a BBC Watchdog investigation into allegations that it had made misleading claims to customers.

A year later, stockbrokers Jefferies said selling with Purplebricks was a "£1,000 coin toss".

Unlike traditional estate agents, its customers had to pay the fee regardless of whether the property sold, Jefferies said.

Strike is backed by the Carphone Warehouse and TalkTalk founder Sir Charles Dunstone - who is a partner at Strike's joint major shareholder Freston Ventures.

Sir Charles said the deal was "a positive outcome for anyone looking to sell their home".

[puede ser]

Elon Musk critica el teletrabajo por ser “moralmente incorrecto”

A ver señores, que un empresario que fabrica coches esté en contra del teletrabajo es lo normal   

[puede ser]

off topic para aquel forero que fue multado (@R.G.C.I.M. si no recuerdo mal):
https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/sociedad/2023/05/17/supremo-da-luz-verde-anular-condenas-violar-confinamiento/00031684337813342625515.htm

El Supremo da luz verde a anular todas las condenas por violar el confinamiento

(click to show/hide)

La Sala de lo Penal zanja que no hay base para castigar con penas de cárcel por resistencia o desobediencia porque la orden de no poder salir a la calle fue «antijurídica»

 No solo las multas que las diferentes policías impusieron por saltarse el confinamiento fueron ilegales y deberán ser devueltas en su totalidad. También los centenares de condenas de cárcel (todas menores) de los tribunales por desobedecer, ignorar o enfrentarse a los agentes de la autoridad por negarse a quedarse en casa van a acabar siendo anuladas si son recurridas. La Sala de lo Penal del Supremo, en una sentencia pionera y que marca el camino doctrinal, ha absuelto a un ciudadano gallego que fue interceptado en «numerosas ocasiones» vulnerando el confinamiento del primer estado de alarma, al considerar que la orden que le prohibía deambular por la calle fue «antijurídica».

La sentencia del Supremo tiene su origen en la decisión de julio de 2021 del Constitucional de declarar ilegal el encierro domiciliario del estado de alarma decretado por el Gobierno de Pedro Sánchez entre el 14 marzo hasta el 21 de junio de 2020 para frenar la primera oleada del coronavirus. Entonces, una corte de garantías dividida casi por la mitad concluyó que aquel confinamiento establecido en el artículo 7 del decreto de alarma no tenía el amparo de la Carta Magna. Y ello, porque supuso una suspensión de los derechos fundamentales y no una simple limitación de los mismos, como sostuvo el Ejecutivo central en la argumentación jurídica del decreto, que la corte de garantías zanjó que vulneró la Constitución.

Aquel fallo histórico abrió la puerta a la anulación a las 1,2 millones de sanciones impuestas durante los 98 días que duró aquella normativa y ahora, el Supremo abre la puerta a la anulación en cascada de las condenas penales de cárcel (ya no sanciones monetarias) impuestas a los ciudadanos que se 'rebelaron' contra el encierro. Penas impuestas por los juzgados de primera instancia y confirmadas en muchas ocasiones por las audiencias provinciales.

Seis meses de prisión

El fallo del Supremo ha sido redactado por el magistrado Julián Sánchez Melgar y con él se anula tanto la sentencia de un Juzgado de lo Penal de Lugo como la confirmación de la misma por parte de la Audiencia Provincial de Lugo contra Ricardo A.L. Esta persona fue condenada por un delito de desobediencia grave a la pena de seis meses de prisión así como inhabilitación especial para el ejercicio del derecho de sufragio pasivo durante ese medio año.

En primera y segunda instancia la justicia consideró probado que este hombre era «perfectamente conocedor de la prohibición (de no poder salir de su casa) porque había sido advertido de ello en numerosas ocasiones desde la declaración del estado de alarma, siendo detenido por hechos similares en marzo y abril de 2020». El condenado desafió a los agentes asegurando que «tenía perfecto derecho a estar en la calle» y avisando que seguiría deambulado por la vía pública hasta que los funcionarios se «cansaran de detenerle».


Y ahora el Supremo da la razón al ciudadano «rebelde» ya que, entiende la sala, para que el delito se cometiera no solo hay que probar la culpabilidad del imputado (que desobedeció a los agentes, algo que nadie niega), sino que se también haya una «antijuricidad» en su comportamiento, algo que no existe tras la declaración de inconstitucionalidad del real decreto 463/2020 que declaró el estado de alarma.

Sin «soporte normativo»

La Sala Penal recuerda en que la orden de no salir de casa que recibió el ciudadano fue ilegal, «en tanto no tenía otro soporte normativo distinto de las prevenciones contenidas en el real decreto 463/2020, declarado expresamente inconstitucional». Y que, por tanto, la orden que recibió el condenado «resultaba manifiestamente opuesta al ordenamiento jurídico, en tanto vulneraba derechos fundamentales».

Por ello, el ciudadano «se hallaba en el legítimo ejercicio de estos derechos fundamentales cuando los agentes, en cumplimiento de lo establecido en el real decreto, le ordenaron, de modo antijurídico a la luz de la doctrina expuesta, que cesara en el disfrute de aquéllos». La sentencia conocida hoy es la primera del Supremo que anula una condena de prisión por saltarse el confinamiento. La sala sí que había anulado ya otros dos fallos con penas de de multas por motivos similares, pero nunca penas de cárcel.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Elon Musk critica el teletrabajo por ser “moralmente incorrecto”

A ver señores, que un empresario que fabrica coches esté en contra del teletrabajo es lo normal   

Que un empresario que ¿fabrica? coches, que ¿fabrica? cohetes que dejan la plataforma de lanzamiento hecha unos zorros y encima el tío lo vende como un éxito, que se meta a una empresa tecnológica sin tener ni puñetera idea del trabajo que se hace (ha llegado a pedir que los ingenieros manden muestras de su código cada día, una de las peores prácticas de microgestión), y en general que tenga un modus operandi que consiste en el caos como norma y a ver lo que se pesca, y aún así no cae ni le echan a patadas, muy normal no es, no.

Los vendeburras y los empresaurios están muy atentos al resultado del jaleo, porque tenían pensado cerdear al máximo si Musk tenía éxito. Visto lo visto, alguno está guardando ya los planes en el cajón.

[wanderer]

https://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/09/politics/donald-trump-national-debt-strategy/index.html

Trump: U.S. will never default ‘because you print the money’

Eso no es ninguna novedad: no entras nunca en impago porque puedes imprimir tanta moneda como sea necesario, y teniendo en cuenta además que tal moneda está planificada de modo que siempre tenga demanda.

El problema es ¿y si deja de ser demandada? No creo que haga falta que se la deseche sin más, sino que su demanda se reduzca significativamente. Por tanto para mí la cuestión no es si impagarán, sino si su moneda deja de ser gradualmente la moneda de referencia mundial para el comercio, por la erosión en su confianza de no impagar, pero pagando en dólares cada vez más devaluados.

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/san-francisco-fire-sale-downtown-120042720.html

San Francisco fire sale: downtown high rise selling at a 73% discount

A high-rise office building in San Francisco’s financial district is reportedly being sold for significantly lower than what it had been valued at a few years ago, potentially providing a signal for the city’s office market.

The San Francisco Business Times first reported last week that unnamed sources said the 350 California Street high-rise is being purchased for a per-square-foot price that equates to a value in the $60 million to $67.5 million range. The outlet identified SKS Real Estate Partners as the buyer of the Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group-owned property.

According to the San Francisco Business Times, the $67.5 million figure marks a 73% decrease from 2020, when the high-rise belonged to Union Bank who listed it for approximately $250 million. An investor from South Korea is reportedly also involved on the buyer’s side.

FOX Business sent an inquiry to SKS Real Estate Partners about the reported purchase. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Americas declined to comment.

With the reported transaction of 350 California Street, participants in San Francisco’s office space market could potentially have a new gauge in terms of pricing. On the seller’s side in the deal, CBRE’s Kyle Kovac and Mike Taquino provided representation.

Derek Daniels, research director for San Francisco at Colliers International, told FOX Business on Tuesday that the 350 California Street sale will be a "great data point for our market right now."

"It will give other market participants a great data point to look to for other potential sales that might be happening," he continued. "It’s a jolt of positivity for the San Francisco market that an institutional, local owner is willing to make a significant investment."

Daniels said the buyer was "going to have to put a lot of capital into the property to get it to the point where it can be leased again, but it is in the north financial district and California Street’s a great address, great street to be on." The Real Deal, which also covered the sale, reported 350 California Street’s vacancy rate was around 75%.

The reported fire sale of the high-rise comes as San Francisco’s office market has continued to deal with high vacancy rates stemming from factors including the COVID-19 pandemic and tech companies located in the city letting their employees work remotely.

Daniels described the market as "very challenged right now." He noted San Francisco saw a "massive spike in subleases" early in the pandemic, adding that tech "was easily able to go remote and a lot of firms kind of went that route right away."

Colliers International, where he works, said in its latest office market report for the city that the overall vacancy rate came in at 23% for the first quarter. That proportion was notably higher than the 5.3% in the same three-month period in 2020. Availability has also hit a record high.

Meanwhile, CBRE reported San Francisco’s office market having a vacancy rate of 29.4% for the quarter. In the prior quarter, it was 27.6%, according to the real estate company.

Daniels expressed optimism about return-to-office recovery in the long-term.

"The sentiment in the industry is that with announced layoffs, I think the pendulum is going to swing back in management’s favor to get folks back in the office," he said.

He also pointed to recent growth in the artificial intelligence sector.

[Mad Men]

Elon Musk critica el teletrabajo por ser “moralmente incorrecto”

A ver señores, que un empresario que fabrica coches esté en contra del teletrabajo es lo normal   

Que un empresario que ¿fabrica? coches, que ¿fabrica? cohetes que dejan la plataforma de lanzamiento hecha unos zorros y encima el tío lo vende como un éxito, que se meta a una empresa tecnológica sin tener ni puñetera idea del trabajo que se hace (ha llegado a pedir que los ingenieros manden muestras de su código cada día, una de las peores prácticas de microgestión), y en general que tenga un modus operandi que consiste en el caos como norma y a ver lo que se pesca, y aún así no cae ni le echan a patadas, muy normal no es, no.

Los vendeburras y los empresaurios están muy atentos al resultado del jaleo, porque tenían pensado cerdear al máximo si Musk tenía éxito. Visto lo visto, alguno está guardando ya los planes en el cajón.

Un hombre que ha hecho:

Tesla
Paypal
Starlink
Space X
Y unas cuantas más pero no tan famosas no lo tacharía de vendeburras. Patinazos suelta, pero se amplifica por su fama.Y en honor a la verdad le faltan algunos tornillos, pero es un crack.

Y dudo que no sepa de sofwsre,hardware,física,quimica….

Saludos

[pollo]

Elon Musk critica el teletrabajo por ser “moralmente incorrecto”

A ver señores, que un empresario que fabrica coches esté en contra del teletrabajo es lo normal   

Que un empresario que ¿fabrica? coches, que ¿fabrica? cohetes que dejan la plataforma de lanzamiento hecha unos zorros y encima el tío lo vende como un éxito, que se meta a una empresa tecnológica sin tener ni puñetera idea del trabajo que se hace (ha llegado a pedir que los ingenieros manden muestras de su código cada día, una de las peores prácticas de microgestión), y en general que tenga un modus operandi que consiste en el caos como norma y a ver lo que se pesca, y aún así no cae ni le echan a patadas, muy normal no es, no.

Los vendeburras y los empresaurios están muy atentos al resultado del jaleo, porque tenían pensado cerdear al máximo si Musk tenía éxito. Visto lo visto, alguno está guardando ya los planes en el cajón.

Un hombre que ha hecho:

Tesla
Paypal
Starlink
Space X
Y unas cuantas más pero no tan famosas no lo tacharía de vendeburras. Patinazos suelta, pero se amplifica por su fama.Y en honor a la verdad le faltan algunos tornillos, pero es un crack.

Y dudo que no sepa de sofwsre,hardware,física,quimica….

Saludos

Pues eso, que le haga la peineta la gente que trabaja en sus empresas, a ver cuanto es capaz de "hacer".

[asustadísimos]

[Es inminente la entrada en vigor de La Ley de Vivienda.

Hay un frente contra ella liderado por la oposición política. ¡Estúpidos!

Sabemos qué va a pasar.

A esta modesta ley local, van a echarle la culpa de la descomposición de expectativas inmobiliarias general provocada por el propio sistema capitalista, que no quiere ni oír hablar del modelito popularcapitalista.

Hasta la suelta del nuevo modelo de sustitución, es buenísimo para la transición estructural en España que el propietariado crea y haga creer que la crisis inmobiliaria (porque los precios no van a parar de bajar) es solo un tropezón político pasajero.

¡El propietariado no tiene capacidad de gestión alguna! Esta vez no tiene secuestrado nada ni nadie.

También es buenísimo que familias pudientes —mucho extrabajador-directivo y los que se fugan de Hispanoamérica en la perspectiva de la devaluación del dólar—, crean que están ante una oportunidad histórica de 'himbersión'; eso sí, si conseguimos que estén gestionados por 'family offices' de la banca de depósitos (no en la sombra) que les hagan comer mierda.

En este sentido es buenísimo que al frente de las competencias inmobiliarias de Mierdrid haya falsoliberales neoliberales y progresistas, en 'pendant', enterrados hasta las rodillas luchando entre sí con mazas, y una flota de escobas voladoras mareándose en bodrios de niños crudos, como imaginara Goya en sus pinturas negras.

Nosotros, a lo nuestro. No tenemos que interferir en la Operación Escoba que siempre hay en toda histeria económica colectiva, nunca mejor llamada escoba como ahora.

Cuando nos pregunten por la LdV, contestaremos con una pregunta: «¿Por qué quienes están interesados en que los precios inmobiliarios suban, reprochan a esta LdV que los suba —por lo mal hecha que dicen que está—?».]

[senslev]

Una mujer increpa a Irene Montero en Valencia por haberse podido comprar un chalet.

https://twitter.com/wallstwolverine/status/1658792991161569280?s=20

Pues eso, el PLU.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/05/17/6463c648468aebe5748b45b9.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20230517/page/52/textview

La solución al problema de la vivienda asequible en España

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20230517/page/60/textview

La DGT aclara en qué epígrafe del IAE entra la compraventa de pisos

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20230517/page/16/textview

Alemania apoyará el FGD europeo si la banca se desprende de deuda soberana

Saludos.