Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Invierno 2022

[Benzino Napaloni]

Al final se trata de encontrar culpables y desplazar la responsabilidad a otros

Justo otra cosa que sale en el artículo sobre Feve: los mandos buscando culpables a la desesperada.

El problema es que no hay un único culpable, no hay un Martínez Pérez que la haya liado. Ni unos pocos. Es una maraña de procesos, burocracia, falta de puesta al día, falta de formación, y falta de muchas otras cosas. Se podría decir que ha fallado la cadena entera.

A la que tengan un mínimo de cabeza, que lo dudo, habrán sentido lo mismo que alguien que no entra en años a su trastero, y cuando lo hace le da la bofetada del pestazo.

Lo de Renfe no se arregla con un poco de chapa y pintura, necesita poco menos que la excavadora de derribos y hacer nuevo el edificio entero. Problema: que eso cuesta pasta, recursos, gente preparada... que por lo general no hay, o con mucha suerte es escaso.

Para que se hagan una idea, después del accidente de Angrois Rubalcaba y Ana Pastor hicieron un pacto de silencio. No sólo porque ahí estaban pringados los dos grandes partidos, sino porque además estaban en juego las concesiones internacionales de ADIF como el Ave en Arabia.


Un pasito más a que la vivienda sea el menor de nuestros problemas.

[Derby]

Justo otra cosa que sale en el artículo sobre Feve: los mandos buscando culpables a la desesperada.

El problema es que no hay un único culpable, no hay un Martínez Pérez que la haya liado. Ni unos pocos. Es una maraña de procesos, burocracia, falta de puesta al día, falta de formación, y falta de muchas otras cosas. Se podría decir que ha fallado la cadena entera.

A la que tengan un mínimo de cabeza, que lo dudo, habrán sentido lo mismo que alguien que no entra en años a su trastero, y cuando lo hace le da la bofetada del pestazo.

Lo de Renfe no se arregla con un poco de chapa y pintura, necesita poco menos que la excavadora de derribos y hacer nuevo el edificio entero. Problema: que eso cuesta pasta, recursos, gente preparada... que por lo general no hay, o con mucha suerte es escaso.

Para que se hagan una idea, después del accidente de Angrois Rubalcaba y Ana Pastor hicieron un pacto de silencio. No sólo porque ahí estaban pringados los dos grandes partidos, sino porque además estaban en juego las concesiones internacionales de ADIF como el Ave en Arabia.


Un pasito más a que la vivienda sea el menor de nuestros problemas.

Confluyen muchos problemas y algunos que cuestan/costarán de abordar porque son conceptuales y han acabado siendo socioculturales (están muy arraigados). Por ejemplo, se confunde (interesadamente) responsabilidad y culpa. La responsabilidad no desaparece porque nazca la culpa, que es derivada de un daño o perjuicio. Es lo que se denomina en derecho civil culpa in vigilando: sería el caso de la responsabilidad de los empresarios por los empleados. La mediocridad lo ha invadido todo porque ha sido la manera (conveniente) de crear un caldo de cultivo para los excesos que se han cometido en muchos ámbitos. Hace falta una gran regeneración a nivel de moral más básica (relativismo moral) y de la convivencia, que pasa cuando se ha dejado todo en manos del cerebro reptiliano y límbico  . Va más allá del problema de la vivienda, sí.

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-now-expects-three-090631377.html

Goldman Sachs, BofA expect three more Fed hikes this year

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs and Bank of America said they expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three more times this year, lifting their estimates after data pointed to persistent inflation and a resilient labor market.

Producer prices accelerated in January by the biggest margin in seven months, according to data on Thursday, while a Labor Department report showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week.

"In light of the stronger growth and firmer inflation news, we are adding a 25bp (basis points) rate hike in June to our Fed forecast, for a peak funds rate of 5.25%-5.5%," Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a note dated Thursday. (...)

[breades]

Justo otra cosa que sale en el artículo sobre Feve: los mandos buscando culpables a la desesperada.

El problema es que no hay un único culpable, no hay un Martínez Pérez que la haya liado. Ni unos pocos. Es una maraña de procesos, burocracia, falta de puesta al día, falta de formación, y falta de muchas otras cosas. Se podría decir que ha fallado la cadena entera.

A la que tengan un mínimo de cabeza, que lo dudo, habrán sentido lo mismo que alguien que no entra en años a su trastero, y cuando lo hace le da la bofetada del pestazo.

Lo de Renfe no se arregla con un poco de chapa y pintura, necesita poco menos que la excavadora de derribos y hacer nuevo el edificio entero. Problema: que eso cuesta pasta, recursos, gente preparada... que por lo general no hay, o con mucha suerte es escaso.

Para que se hagan una idea, después del accidente de Angrois Rubalcaba y Ana Pastor hicieron un pacto de silencio. No sólo porque ahí estaban pringados los dos grandes partidos, sino porque además estaban en juego las concesiones internacionales de ADIF como el Ave en Arabia.


Un pasito más a que la vivienda sea el menor de nuestros problemas.

Confluyen muchos problemas y algunos que cuestan/costarán de abordar porque son conceptuales y han acabado siendo socioculturales (están muy arraigados). Por ejemplo, se confunde (interesadamente) responsabilidad y culpa. La responsabilidad no desaparece porque nazca la culpa, que es derivada de un daño o perjuicio. Es lo que se denomina en derecho civil culpa in vigilando: sería el caso de la responsabilidad de los empresarios por los empleados. La mediocridad lo ha invadido todo porque ha sido la manera (conveniente) de crear un caldo de cultivo para los excesos que se han cometido en muchos ámbitos. Hace falta una gran regeneración a nivel de moral más básica (relativismo moral) y de la convivencia, que pasa cuando se ha dejado todo en manos del cerebro reptiliano y límbico  . Va más allá del problema de la vivienda, sí.

A ver cómo explicamos a todos aquellos que estudiaron en los libros de historia del colegio que la Transición terminó en 1982, que en realidad aún estamos 'Transitando' (aquí la cursilería ─que diría ppcc─ se queda muy corta) a la democraciah, y que el Pacto de Renta tan anhelado por los bienpensantes es otra vuelta de tuerca 'centrista' en el camino del posfranquismo como «unidad de destino en lo universal», ma non troppo.

[Saturio]

Ya sabéis de mi querencia por ir a buscar el dato en lugar de estar hablando de entelequias. [...]

Del dato creíble*,  (creipla**, en Catalunye) que no, necesariamente, fehaciente.
















































::::::::::::::
  *)  No hay en España, ni un..., dato creíble.
**)  "Neutral..."

Es difícil encontrarlo. No el dato en sí (no quiero entrar en discusiones sobre lo que es un dato y sobre lo que es una información y cosas así). Un ejemplo es todo el lío de los fijos discontinuos. Los datos son muy fiables, lo que es una risión es cómo se presentan los datos para contar una historia u otra.
Otro caso de risa es la información sobre salarios...Esa que dice que hay 8 millones de españoles cobrando menos que el salario mínimo...y de ahí luego se pretenden sacar datos sobre salarios medios y medianos y sobre todo, convencerle a usted de que si cobra 45.000 euros al año está usted entre el 0,6 más rico de España y que acepte todo tipo de tasas y gravámenes y transferencias de renta sin rechistar porque, al fin y al cabo, usted es un rico privilegiado que dios sabe que trampas ha hecho para estar así de bien.

Dicho esto. De los dos gráficos que he puesto hoy, el primero (población en edad de trabajar histórica y proyectada) nos lo podemos creer bastante. Sobre todo el de la población global.
El de la productividad es discutible.

[Derby]

La manera de hacer las cosas en China...

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/17/business/bao-fan-china-banker.html

Star Banker Vanishes in China, Stoking Fears of Renewed Beijing Crackdown

Bao Fan is the latest businessman in China to disappear, raising concerns that Beijing’s crackdown on the technology and financial industries will continue.

Bao Fan, a renowned investment banker in China, has disappeared and is unreachable, raising concerns that Beijing’s crackdown on the country’s business elite is continuing.

In a filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Thursday, China Renaissance Holdings said it had been unable to contact Mr. Bao, the company’s chairman and chief executive. China Renaissance said its board was “unaware” of any information that indicated his disappearance was tied to the company’s operations. The company’s share price plunged on the news, falling 28 percent on Friday.

The disappearance of Mr. Bao, a well-connected deal-maker known for his close ties to many of the country’s technology giants, including Alibaba and Tencent, seemed eerily familiar to many China watchers. Under Xi Jinping, China’s president, prominent executives and billionaire businessmen from the country’s private sector have been rounded up under the banner of anticorruption investigations.

Mr. Bao worked at Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley before starting Renaissance as China’s technology sector was coming into its own. He shares many of the characteristics of businessmen who have been targeted by Beijing: Western-educated, outspoken and wealthy. Under Mr. Xi, China’s once powerful and extremely wealthy private sector has been forced to show allegiance to the Communist Party.(...)

https://www.ft.com/content/abdeebc2-0bbe-4c78-83bd-a4515d814694

Chinese TV series shines light on Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption crusade

'The Knockout’ seen as a way for Communist party to shore up credibility after zero-Covid blunders

(...) The series hints at “the party’s concerns that its legitimacy has taken a hit from the zero-Covid policy and economic slowdown”, said Yuen Yuen Ang, professor at Johns Hopkins University and author of China’s Gilded Age, which examines corruption in China.

“Anti-corruption is seen as a means to restore the party’s integrity and vigour on its own initiative and thereby avert social discontent,” [/i]she added.

Xi, China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, launched an anti-graft campaign in 2013 against systemic corruption that he argued was undermining the Communist party’s authority — and to neutralise potential political rivals, according to observers of Chinese politics.

The campaign netted prominent national figures such as Zhou Yongkang, China’s former security chief, and Ling Jihua, a top aide to former president Hu Jintao.

“The two previous major factions in the party — the Shanghai faction [of late president Jiang Zemin] and the Communist Youth League [of former president Hu] — have been marginalised through Xi Jinping’s masterful use of the anti-corruption drive,” said Willy Lam, an expert in Chinese politics at the Jamestown Foundation think-tank in Washington.

“I think Xi Jinping will continue to use this technique because there are still factions who don’t see eye to eye with him,” Lam said, adding that the crackdown had shifted to target public security officials and businesspeople seen as aligned with rival factions such as in the tech sector.

At the CCP’s 20th congress in October, where he secured a third term as party leader and military chief, Xi boasted that 207,000 “top leaders” at all levels had been investigated by the country’s feared discipline inspection and supervision organs.

Ling Li, a Chinese politics expert at the University of Vienna, said that the campaign, while rooting out corrupt officials, was selective in terms of its targets for investigation. “There might be corruption everywhere, so why do you only go after these guys?”

Rather than slowing as Xi consolidated power, the crackdown has accelerated in recent months. This week, authorities announced an investigation into China’s national football association chief Chen Xuyuan.

“There appears to be an intense revival of anti-corruption in the beginning of 2023,” said Ang.

The party’s censors have increasingly turned to television. Aside from the 39-episode The Knockout, which aired its finale this month, programmes such as Crime Crackdown released in 2021 and In the Name of the People in 2017 focused on the anti-corruption crusade.

Last year, China Central Television, a state-owned broadcaster, aired a five-part series, Zero Tolerance, in which convicted CCP officials gave on-screen confessions that revealed their abuse of power.

Viewers were not convinced: many said the officials appeared unapologetic on screen and their sentences were too lenient.

The Knockout, with higher production value and a more nuanced plot focusing on the decades-long rivalry between a clean cop and a crime boss, has drawn stronger reviews. It has also been much more popular.

“The story is based on real events. It’s very exciting, while reflecting the darkness of the political and legal system,” said Wang Xingrui, a management student in Zhengzhou, in China’s central Henan province.

But in many respects, The Knockout adheres to the party line. Unlike Hollywood narratives that celebrate the renegade individual’s ability to disrupt the system, the policeman obeys the party hierarchy, awaiting his orders before acting.

“Hollywood has a lot of superheroes — Americans like them. But the hero in Chinese propaganda shows like this one, they cannot work alone,” said the University of Vienna’s Li.

“All the wrongs have to be corrected through the authorisation of the higher authority of the party, which is not corruptible.

[Derby]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12152931/02/23/Lane-BCE-dice-que-gran-parte-de-los-efectos-del-endurecimiento-monetario-se-trasladaran-en-los-proximos-anos.html

Lane (BCE): "Gran parte" de los efectos de la restricción monetaria se trasladarán en los próximos años

Aunque los efectos de la actual restricción monetaria ya se empiezan a percibir, el grueso de su impacto se trasladará a la economía y a la inflación en los próximos dos y tres años. El economista jefe del Banco Central Europeo (BCE), Philip Lane, ha avisado este jueves de que "una gran parte" del ajuste todavía tiene que materializarse. Y ello llevará tiempo.

"Todavía se espera que una gran parte de los efectos del actual ciclo de subidas de tipos, iniciado hace tan solo seis meses, se materialicen en los próximos meses y años", ha dicho Lane durante su comparecencia en el Instituto Nacional de Investigación Económica y Social de Reino Unido. En su discurso en Londres, el economista jefe del BCE ha evaluado el incremento más rápido en los costes de financiación en la historia del euro, de 300 puntos básicos desde julio.(...)

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-cooled-much-even-210742008.html

The housing market has cooled so much that even deep-pocketed investors are backing off

Imagine being outbid for a single family home by a corporation. That was all too real for the last few years as investor real estate purchases surged, fueling the Pandemic Housing Boom and and pricing many aspiring home buyers out of the market.

Last year the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to over 7%. The year before, mortgage rates were at historic lows and demand was high, which fueled an investor frenzy within the housing market. Real estate brokerage Redfin’s new report shows just how much of a difference there is in investor residential real estate purchases between the two years.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, investor home purchases plunged 45.8% compared to the same period the previous year, as mortgage rates rose and home prices declined, Redfin researchers wrote. To add some perspective, the 2008 housing crisis saw a slightly smaller decline with investor purchases falling 45.1%.

For this report, researchers analyzed county records across 40 metropolitan areas in the U.S., and they define “investor” as any institution or business that purchases residential real estate.

“Investors piled into the housing market in 2021 due to rock-bottom mortgage rates and surging housing demand, and are now retreating amid projections that home prices have room to fall,” the report said.

Pandemic boomtowns like Las Vegas and Phoenix are already seeing sharp corrections. In Las Vegas, investor home purchases fell 67% in the fourth quarter of last year versus a year earlier, which Redfin’s researchers found to be the largest decline among the 40 metro areas they looked at.

Phoenix saw a 66.7% decline in the same period. Meanwhile, Nassau County experienced a 63% drop, Atlanta a 62.8% drop, and Charlotte a 61.9% drop. All of which made up the top half of the 10 largest declines Redfin has reported. The other half, according to the report, included: Jacksonville (down 57.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022 from the previous year), Nashville (-54.8%), Sacramento (-53.5%), Riverside (-53.0%), and Orlando (-51.8%).

Some of the smallest declines, of less than 10%, were seen in Milwaukee, New York, and Providence. Meanwhile, Baltimore was the only metro city Redfin analyzed with an increase in investor home purchases, rising 1.4%.

Interestingly enough, there’s also been a shift in what exactly investors are purchasing. Redfin’s researchers found that investor purchases of single family homes dropped 49.8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2022. The decline is the largest of any other other property type. For instance, investor purchases of condos dropped 35.6% and purchases of multifamily housing properties dropped 31.1%. But despite it being the largest decline, single family homes are still the popular choice among investors.

And investors that are buying homes are tightening their purse strings, with purchases of high-priced and mid-priced homes both declining by more than 50%. Meanwhile, investor purchases of low-priced homes dropped 28.6%, according to the report.

However, mortgage rates have dipped slightly this year and some markets are seeing an uptick in activity with the start of the busy season, so investor interest could be piqued.

“It’s possible that investors will start to wade back into the market this year given that mortgage rates have ticked down from their 2022 high—especially if home prices show signs of bottoming,” Redfin’s senior economist and researcher on the report, Sheharyar Bokhari, said. “But it’s unlikely that investors will return with the same vigor they had in 2021.”

And that could actually be good news for individual buyers, Bokhari added, in that they may no longer lose bidding wars to investors.

[Derby]

Una guía de cómo exprimir más y mejor a los inquilinos  Un ejemplo de la validación sistemática (muy necesaria ahora mismo) que se facilita a los propietarios. Sería impensable una guía simétrica para los inquilinos, no hablando de sus derechos, sino de cómo aprovecharse más y mejor de los propietarios.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-landlord-mistakes-4e6072bd

Where New Landlords Go Wrong

Assuming too much cash flow, trying to do repairs themselves and not thoroughly screening tenants are among the stumbles first-timers make

As questions about where interest rates and real-estate prices are headed continue to weigh on the market, more people could be tempted to turn their homes into rental properties instead of selling them.

But becoming a landlord isn’t as straightforward as it might seem. In fact, it comes with far more financial, legal, emotional and time-consuming factors than many rookies realize. Rents, for example, aren’t surging the way they had been in recent years.

We spoke to landlords and experts in the field about the biggest mistakes first-time landlords (and, yes, even veterans who should know better) make when they get into the rental-property business. Here’s what they said:

Not treating it like a business

Many new landlords treat their rental business like a part-time hobby rather than a business, says Scott Trench, chief executive of BiggerPockets.com, an online community with forums for residential real-estate investors. That’s a mistake, he says, because renting a house is far more complicated than just owning one.

Rookie landlords should be prepared to put in between 250 and 500 hours to learn the ins-and-outs of the rental business. They need to establish policies on what they will and won’t accept from tenants; how they’re going to deal with contractors; how much money they need to collect in rent to make new acquisitions pencil out; and how to manage miscellaneous expenses, among other things.

Many people “don’t invest the time to learn how to screen tenants, manage the property effectively, and maintain it,” Mr. Trench says. “Many such landlords are at risk of losing large amounts of money, having experiences with bad tenants and finding that the property consumes large amounts of their free time down the road.”

Underestimating the costs

Another big mistake many first-timers make is underestimating the costs associated with rental properties and assuming they will be bringing in more money than they actually do, says Mr. Trench. If a landlord collects $1,500 in rent and the monthly payment on the property (including mortgage, taxes, insurance, etc.) is $1,200, that doesn’t mean the landlord is $300 in the black. In reality, he says, they might be in the red because many new landlords fail to budget for additional expenses that undoubtedly will come up, from new roofs and refrigerators to windows and flooring.

“You’ve got to account for maintenance,” Mr. Trench says. “You’ve got to account for capital expenses—when you replace the roof every 30 years or have to redo the kitchen or put in appliances. If you’re not budgeting—at a minimum—$250 to $300 a month for maintenance and [capital expenses], you’re probably doing it wrong, even if you have a fairly new unit in good condition.”

New landlords should have money in the bank when they get started in case big expenses come up right away, he says.

“For a rule of thumb, I think that landlords should be very, very uncomfortable if their cash reserve is anything less than about $15,000 on day one,” Mr. Trench says, “and I would heavily encourage landlords to bump that up by $5,000 to $10,000 for each additional property, at minimum.”

It’s also important to understand that what a property owner can charge for rent isn’t dependent upon costs—that is, there is no guarantee that a landlord will be able to charge tenants enough to cover both the monthly costs on the property and needed repairs and home improvements.

Tia Politi, who owns multiple rental units with her husband near Eugene, Ore., and is the president of the Oregon Rental Housing Association, says first-time landlords will sometimes tell her: This is what my mortgage is and my taxes and insurance, so this is what I want you to charge for rent.

“Well, I’m sorry. Rents are not dependent upon what your costs are,” she says. “They’re dependent on what the market will bear.”

Not valuing your time

It’s very common for property owners to think they can save money by doing repairs or major improvements themselves, but what many fail to take into account is the value of their own time, says Andrew Timms, president of the Illinois Rental Property Owners Association, a trade group.

“It’s remarkable how many people, when they’re on their own time, don’t price it and don’t value it for what it’s really worth,” he says. “They may save the $70 an hour that a professional would charge who could do it in 45 minutes, but they have taken 2½ hours of their own time to get the job done. And in the end, the numbers don’t add up.”

Lacking a consistent screening process

Experts say property owners can head off many of the nightmare scenarios that come with being a landlord by having a thorough, consistent process for screening potential tenants.

“My biggest mistake,” Mr. Trench says, “was allowing tenants to refer one another and for me to allow them to be on the lease without going through my screening process in a formal capacity.”

Mr. Trench and others stress the importance of doing a credit, criminal and background check on every potential tenant, and to maintain a consistent criteria. That helps identify reliable tenants without running afoul of discrimination laws, they say.

That said, “someone can have bad credit for a good reason,” says Dan Mancini, a real-estate agent who also owns rental properties in the Philadelphia area. He encourages landlords to meet with applicants to talk about things on their credit report. “Maybe they’re going through something really difficult in life and that’s understandable, with an emergency or someone maybe died,” he says. “I think the numbers don’t always tell the whole story.”

Getting too friendly with tenants

All sorts of complications can arise when landlords and tenants become friends or start socializing together, Mr. Timms say.

A landlord, for example, might avoid discussing an issue with tenants, assuming they will make it right on their own. Tenants might assume that the landlord is OK with them, say, adopting a pet or making changes to the property without getting permission.

Landlords should be friendly, warm and respectful to their tenants, but going to the beach with them or socializing at a restaurant or bar on a frequent basis is probably a bad idea, Mr. Timms says.

“You do need to remember that this is, at all times, a business transaction,” he says.

Not keeping up with law changes

There are laws related to everything, from discrimination to the use of lead-based paint to when landlords can walk through the door of a property. But many landlords don’t know the laws or keep up with how they change, and that can end up costing them big.

Ms. Politi in Oregon says failing to keep up with fair-housing laws, for example, can lead to hefty fines. In one instance, she remembers when an applicant asked about a service animal living in the unit, and the landlord said he didn’t take pets and hung up. The applicant filed a complaint, and the landlord was investigated and slapped with a $16,000 fine for refusing to consider an assistance animal. “You’ve got to know your individual state’s laws because they’re different in every state,” she says. “Some are easy, some are tough.”

What’s more, says Ms. Politi, some cities have additional rules that overlay state law. 

[Benzino Napaloni]

Una guía de cómo exprimir más y mejor a los inquilinos  Un ejemplo de la validación sistemática (muy necesaria ahora mismo) que se facilita a los propietarios. Sería impensable una guía simétrica para los inquilinos, no hablando de sus derechos, sino de cómo aprovecharse más y mejor de los propietarios.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-landlord-mistakes-4e6072bd

Too long .

Ahora en serio, no olvidemos que lo que se busca es el negociete fácil. Dar el pase antes del crack de 2008 era la opción preferida, y el alquiler es sólo el premio de consolación, como suelo decir.

El escenario más o menos soñado aceptable era el de la LAU 2013. Tú, bicho, mientras me convenga a mí o no encuentre nada mejor, a pagar. El día que lo necesite, te vas a la calle.

El casero al uso sigue la premisa de que tiene que forrarse "que pa eso soy el propietario". Si no puede, vende y adiós. El cabreo de ahora es que ya ni puede vender ni puede hacer "alquileres patera", no sólo pasa en España. Estas guías pueden tener "buenas intenciones" de cómo hacer bien un negocio, pero el casero tarugo no quiere eso. Lo quiere facilito, o nada.

Mientras...

La caída de la venta de pisos ya obliga a los propietarios a bajar los precios

[Derby]

Too long .

Ahora en serio, no olvidemos que lo que se busca es el negociete fácil.

Efectivamente, too long... Lo que demuestra que ya ha desaparecido ese elemento de "facilidad" clave para el negociete del ladrillo. Ahora estamos en un escenario de: "no es fácil, pero vale la pena". En realidad, la "facilidad" ha venido dada por elementos tales como: la naturaleza de bien esencial y necesario de la vivienda, el enfoque mercantilista de la vivienda en esta fase del sistema capitalista...etc. No es que el empresario del pisito sea ningún crack  , aunque han podido ser así de vanidosos y arrogantes gracias al "éxito" del (su) negocio.

Y ahí está un importante escollo para dejar de lado el negociete del ladrillo: cualquier modelo de sustitución que venga va a requerir un mayor esfuerzo del que este modelo ha requerido.

El relativismo moral casa muy bien con lo "fácil". 

[Derby]

A reality check...todavía en la fase de negociación del duelo...

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64661791

Why is the UK economy lagging behind the US, Germany and others?

The UK economy is struggling - and people are feeling it in their pockets, as wages fail to keep up with rising prices.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the UK economy will shrink this year while every other major economy will grow.

The Bank of England also forecasts a recession in the UK in 2023 - albeit one that is shorter and less severe than previously forecast.

Perhaps it's not surprising the outlook is bleak given the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and soaring costs of both energy and food.

But why is the UK seemingly faring worse than other rich countries such as the US, Germany and France?

Is the UK really lagging behind?

Forecasts are never perfect. There are so many factors that affect economic growth - from geopolitics to the weather - that, inevitably, predictions often miss the mark. But they can point in the right direction.

And the existing evidence shows other countries have taken less of a hit from the huge challenges of recent years than the UK has.

Figures from the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which looks at how rich countries are performing, show the UK economy fell further than others in the first months of the pandemic.

The UK's pace of recovery was fast once the economy reopened - but not fast enough to make up the lost ground.



But the difference between the UK and others may not be quite as big as it appears.

That's because most countries measure the output of their public services, such as health and education, based on the costs - a nurse's wage, for example. In the UK they are accounted for differently, by valuing the services delivered - such as operations in hospital.

As a result, the UK's figures better reflect the impact of closed schools and cancelled operations during Covid, as well as disruption due to strikes.

The bigger picture, however, remains: the Bank of England and the IMF both expect the UK economy to shrink this year, while other G7 countries are expected to grow.



Some observers, including independent economist Julian Jessop, believe the IMF was overly gloomy about the UK's prospects and that the differences under discussion - a percentage point here or there - are small.

Nevertheless, he says, there is still definitely "something to explain" about the UK's flagging economic performance.

Is it all down to Brexit?

Estimates about the cost of Brexit vary - according to a report by Bloomberg it is costing the UK economy roughly £100bn a year, and the economy is 4% smaller than it might have been if the UK had stayed in the EU.

"The EU is a very rich part of the world," says Carl Emmerson, deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, an independent think tank. "And we've chosen, for better or worse, to make trade with that grouping of countries a lot more difficult, so it's clearly going to be something that makes it harder for the UK economy to grow."

What impact has Brexit had on the UK economy?

Business investment has stagnated since the referendum vote in 2016 too, he says - another "drag on growth". A Bank of England policymaker has said that Brexit hit UK investment to the tune of £29bn.

EU workers used to come freely to work in the UK but can no longer do so, making it hard for the hospitality, agriculture, and care sectors to find enough staff.

Even Julian Jessop, who describes himself as a "Brexit optimist" and believes there are big potential gains from leaving the EU, says there have been short-term economic costs.

"We're still in a sort of transition phase, where the negatives are dominating," he says.

But he says those negatives are "smaller than people have been arguing" and "color=blue]more likely to be temporary, because a lot of them have to do with uncertainty and the process of adjustment"[/color].

What else is affecting the economy?

Energy costs

Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent global energy prices soaring - but the impact varies between countries.

The US has its own domestic sources of fossil fuels and some European countries have more alternative sources of energy, Mr Emmerson says. France, for example, has a large nuclear network, and Norway has significant hydropower.

"Britain is pretty exposed," he says.

Moreover, the way the UK prices electricity is based on the cost of gas, the most expensive form of electricity generation. That has pushed up bills across the economy and made inflation worse, Mr Jessop says.

Workforce shortages

Most economies saw their workforce shrink during the pandemic.

But again, the UK is an outlier, with numbers failing to bounce back after the crisis.



Economists are still trying to work out why. It seems it is not just down to having fewer EU workers.

Young people have opted to study rather than work, older people have retired early, and more people are receiving long-term sickness benefits.

There are signs the workforce is starting to grow again, which could help boost growth and tax revenues later this year.

Long-term problems

There are also more fundamental reasons behind the UK's weaker performance, suggests Cambridge University economist Diane Coyle.

While the economy has slowed since the financial crisis in 2008, the roots of the problems go back much further, she argues, with investment in decline since the 1990s.

That left the economy lacking the resilience to cope with the triple shocks of Covid, Brexit and the war in Ukraine.

"That's down to the long-term weaknesses, long-term under investment, in the private and the public sector, [and] degradation of public services and infrastructure, which are just essential if the economy is going to grow," she says.

For its part, the government says the UK economy is resilient.

Responding to figures showing that the UK narrowly avoided a recession in 2022, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the numbers showed "underlying resilience" - but added the country was "not out of the woods".

[CHOSEN]

Véase la desfachatez del MEI.
No van a soltar la presa.
Esto solo se soluciona llevándose por delante el Estado de Bienestar.

[sudden and sharp]

Véase la desfachatez del MEI.
No van a soltar la presa.
Esto solo se soluciona llevándose por delante el Estado de Bienestar.

Hay un peak de nuevos pensionistas ahí delante... algo habrá que hacer. Venimos diciendo que o pisitos o pensiones...

Pensiones.



Lo que hay que cargarse es el banano, digo yo. (Y sí, los impuestos, nuevos o no, pues cabrean un tanto.)

[Benzino Napaloni]

Véase la desfachatez del MEI.
No van a soltar la presa.
Esto solo se soluciona llevándose por delante el Estado de Bienestar.

Hay un peak de nuevos pensionistas ahí delante... algo habrá que hacer. Venimos diciendo que o pisitos o pensiones...

Pensiones.



Lo que hay que cargarse es el banano, digo yo. (Y sí, los impuestos, nuevos o no, pues cabrean un tanto.)

Cualquier solución a eso que no implique actos criminales como "la inyección", o incluso peor, dejar morir a los pensionistas cuando necesiten hospital, requiere inexcusablemente pinchar el banano.

Y, también, dejar de jugar ya no ya con el futuro, con el presente. El problema de la pirámide demográfica del revés no es sólo la falta de contribuyentes suficientes. Es también la falta literal de personal sanitario suficiente.


Si se quiere una salida digna de un ser humano sin recurrir a métodos inhumanos, es imperativo bajarse de la burra del banano ya.