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https://www.wsj.com/world/birthrates-global-decline-cause-ddaf8be2

Suddenly There Aren’t Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed.

Birthrates are falling fast across countries, ​with economic, social and geopolitical ​consequences
(...)

https://econofact.org/why-is-the-u-s-debt-expected-to-keep-growing

Estoy muy sorprendido por la aportación,  derby.

No me esperaba ese nivel de cinismo y crueldad en vd.
Gratamente,  en todo caso.


Sds.

No me debo haber expresado bien o no se ha entendido bien mi comentario. El incidente que daba pie a mi comentario me parece horrible, con el agravante del resultado de 4 fallecidos y 16 heridos graves y críticos. Una tragedia que deberá dar pie a la correspondiente depuración de responsabilidades y declaración de culpabilidades.

Frecuentemente comentamos e hipotetizamos en este foro la situación que suponga la conclusión del sistema que hemos venido a denominar popularcapitalista, con el fin de la burbuja inmobiliaria. ¿Será rápida o lenta? Y si es rápida (sudden and sharp) ¿con qué implicaciones? La devaluación súbita del inmobiliario no viene sin un dolor agudo y estruendoso (se podrá silenciar más o menos).

Cuando Asustadísimos se refiere al Hos*** o al Punto Final... lo que viene inmediatamente después es una caída o un derrumbe de precios. Y la noticia de hoy, por asociación de ideas, me ha llevado a pensar precisamente en el derrumbe y en las consecuencias del mismo. La caída de los precios inmobiliarios provocará el aplastamiento a nivel económico o financiero de tanta gente que ha invertido y se ha endeudado en el inmobiliario. Es una imagen o representación mental, nada más.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-24/spain-s-property-growth-madrid-leads-europe-with-11-price-surge

Madrid Leads European House Price Gains With Double-Digit Surge

Prices jumped almost 11% in April compared with a year earlier
Property shortage is particularly acute in the Spanish city

Housing shortages are fueling dramatic price increases in some of Europe’s major cities, and Madrid is now leading the pack with a jump of almost 11% year-on-year.

Even with interest rates at multi-year highs, residential property is booming in the Spanish capital, according to the Bloomberg City Tracker, driven by locals desperate to get on the housing ladder before they are completely priced out and investors looking for returns.

Madrid has been particularly affected by an influx of Latin American money, exacerbating the squeeze on the market, as well as hype about certain districts. Carabanchel, traditionally a working class area, was named the third coolest neighborhood in the world last year. New house building is at historical lows, there is little urban land available for construction and few plans for new developments. Housing stock has fallen 11% in the last year, according to real estate website Idealista.

With so few properties available, sales fell 8% in the first quarter, according to the statistics office.



“An increasingly large housing deficit is accumulating,” said Beatriz Toribio, head of the Association of Builders and Developers of Spain. “Madrid is a very important economic hub and more and more people are coming to work and live in the city. Add that to the tourism pull, the cultural pull. The demand is increasing.”

Toribio wants more done to reduce bureaucracy and labor shortages, and says the government also needs to develop a long-term vision for housing.

Separate data from the Land and Property Registry show a similar trend in the Madrid province. Prices for new builds surged 14.5% in the first quarter of 2024 compared with the previous three months. In a Knight Frank index of prime properties, Madrid was the top-ranked European city in the first quarter.



To capture the latest housing-market trends in European cities, Bloomberg compiles figures from a range of providers. Some are asking rates and indicative levels, while others are official figures on transactions. Madrid prices are published or compiled by Idealista.

Madrid is the only city in the Tracker with prices rising at a double-digit pace. They increased 10.6% in April compared with the same month a year ago. When Bloomberg last highlighted the city, in the summer of 2023, the gains were around 5%.

Athens is up 9.6% year-on-year, slipping below 10% for the first time in 17 months. Apartment prices in Vienna registered gains of just over 7%, staying at the fastest since October 2022.

Prices are falling in only three out of the 12 European cities monitored. Paris was the worst performer, with a 7.5% decrease.

In Madrid, Elena Jori, director of real estate at agency Home Select, said the supply-demand imbalance means she expects prices will keep rising, and she also downplayed the risk of a property collapse.

“The current market has nothing to do with the one that caused the crash in 2008,” she said. “There is neither an excess housing stock, nor is financing cheap. We are precisely talking about a shortage of product.”

https://www.ft.com/content/38935f6b-4f61-4001-84a7-226e52d9a184

Janet Yellen says many Americans still struggling with inflation

US Treasury secretary expresses concern over ‘substantial’ increases in living costs

US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has said “substantial increases” in living costs are a “problem to a lot of people” as persistent inflation dents President Joe Biden’s standing with voters ahead of November’s election.

Prices for housing and everyday goods were still high for many voters, Yellen acknowledged, despite strong wage growth in recent months.

“They see it when they shop for food. They see it in terms of rentals. With higher mortgage rates, it’s tough for young people who would like to buy a house to enter the market,” Yellen said in an interview with the Financial Times on Thursday.

“Although wages have gone up significantly, and, at least on average, more than prices have gone up, there are substantial increases in prices that are important to people — and it’s substantial increases in a relatively short period of time that are very noticeable to people,” she said.(...)

https://www.elconfidencial.com/inmobiliario/residencial/2024-05-24/intrum-haya-solvia-ere-700-despidos_3889356/

una tercera parte la fuerza laboral
Intrum eleva a 700 los afectados por el ERE y alega causas económicas por primera vez

Con una semana de retraso respecto al calendario inicial, la empresa ha comunicado que quiere recortar un tercio de la plantilla. El 75% de los despidos serán en Haya e Intrum

Con una semana de retraso, este jueves se celebró la primera mesa negociadora del Expediente de Regulación de Empleo (ERE) que Intrum quiere llevar a cabo antes de verano. La empresa ha elevado hasta 702 el número de personas que se verán afectadas por la medida, un recorte que supone cercenar en una tercera parte la fuerza laboral.

Este ajuste se esperaba desde que la compañía cerró la adquisición de Haya el pasado septiembre. Sin embargo, las estimaciones de qué alcance podía llegar a tener fueron agravándose con el paso de los meses.

El desplome de la compañía en bolsa, su elevado endeudamiento, la venta acelerada de activos y la salida de gran parte de la cúpula en España, incluido el consejero delegado, José Luis Bellosta, hicieron temer lo peor. Y los malos augurios se han cumplido.

Las dos empresas más afectadas, en números absolutos, son Intrum y Haya. En la primera se ha comunicado que el objetivo de la empresa es recortar 274 puestos de trabajo, y en la segunda, 243. En Solvia, la propuesta de extinciones asciende a 121 empleos, y en Aktua, a otros 60.

Por centros de trabajo, en Madrid se concentra el 45% del ajuste, con el recorte de 316 empleos (124 en Haya, 85 en Intrum, 55 Aktua y 52 Solvia), mientras que casi otro 25% es en Valladolid, donde están previstas 166 extinciones (todas salvo una de Intrum).

En Alicante se han comunicado 70 salidas (50 de ellas en Solvia); en Barcelona, 47; en Zaragoza, 14; en Almería, 43; y en Huelva, una. Un duro punto de partida con el que la empresa ahora dirigida por Enrique Tellado ha arrancado las negociaciones.

Otra novedad respecto a los anteriores EREs ha sido que, en esta ocasión, además de alegar causas organizativas y productivas, la empresa ha incluido como motivo para llevar a cabo el ajuste causas económicas.

Para apelar a esta última causa, lo habitual es que la empresa acredite la caída del negocio durante, al menos, tres trimestres consecutivos y lo ligue a los puestos de trabajo que prevé extinguir, defendiendo que así podrá darse la vuelta a la situación.

Además de tratar de reducir el número de afectados, sobre la mesa de negociación también jugarán un importante papel las condiciones de las salidas. En un ERE, la ley permite extinguir los empleos con 20 días por año trabajado y un máximo de una anualidad.

Sin embargo, los representantes de los trabajadores aspiran a defender lo mismo que en anteriores ajustes, donde se pactó 34 días y un máximo de 24 mensualidades

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/starwood-reit-sets-drastic-redemption-limits-on-liquidity-crunch

Starwood’s $10 Billion REIT Tightens Redemption Limits to Ease Liquidity Crunch

New restrictions are expected to last six months to a year
Sternlicht’s Starwood will reduce its management fees

Starwood Real Estate Income Trust, a $10 billion fund managed by Barry Sternlicht’s Starwood Capital Group, is taking a drastic step to preserve liquidity by imposing tighter limits on investors’ ability to pull money.

The vehicle, known as SREIT, will cap monthly redemptions at 0.33% of its net asset value, and 1% a quarter, according to a filing Thursday. Previously, the trust allowed withdrawals of up to 2% of net asset value in a given month, and 5% a quarter.

The new restrictions will likely last six months to a year and are viewed by executives as preferable to selling assets at discounted prices, according to a shareholder letter. Starwood Capital Group will reduce its management fees as long as the new limits are in place.

“As a fiduciary to our stockholders, we cannot recommend being an aggressive seller of real estate assets today given what we believe to be a near-bottom market with limited transaction volumes, and our belief that the real estate markets will improve,” Sternlicht and SREIT Chief Executive Officer Sean Harris said in a letter to shareholders.

The move is the latest indication that higher-for-longer interest rates are causing cracks in the commercial-property market. SREIT and competitors including Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust faced rising pressure in the second of half of 2022 when investors began requesting more money back, causing the vehicles to enforce previously disclosed limits.

In October 2022, SREIT’s redemption requests exceeded the 2% threshold but all those requests were fulfilled, with the trust leaving some requests unmet a month later.

Redemption pressure eased at the end of last year when it appeared the Federal Reserve was getting ready to cut interest rates. Shareholders requested just $314 million in December 2023, down from a peak of $715 million in January of that year.

But with the economy roaring, policymakers started warning that rate cuts might not happen as soon as previously forecast, complicating the outlook for real estate.

“This was a very hard decision to make, but having managed through six major downturns over our 30-year history, we believe we are making the best decision for all shareholders,” Sternlicht said in an emailed statement. “We anticipate the real estate markets are bottoming and will continue to improve from here, so further leveraging the vehicle or selling our portfolio’s assets to meet monthly redemptions would negatively impact all investors.”

Starwood’s trust has continued to face outflow pressure. In April, shareholders requested $518 million in redemptions. The fund paid out just about $192 million.

SREIT had $752 million in liquidity at the end of April, including $275 million in an undrawn credit line, according to the shareholder letter. With liquidity worsening, executives had to choose between selling assets, increasing borrowings or limiting redemptions.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/21/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

Dow slides 300 points as Fed meeting minutes show inflation worries

U.S. stocks traded lower Wednesday as the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May meeting raised concerns of persistent inflation, indicating the central bank may not cut interest rates soon.(...)