PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2024

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

https://www.eldiario.es/madrid/somos/chamberi/ministerio-defensa-privatiza-75-anos-hospital-militar-chamberi-entrega-grupo-quiron_1_11370551.html

Por otra parte, no sé yo si solidificar la solución de las dos Coreas es muy operativa para Israel-Palestina, vistos lo antecedentes. Eso sí, una potencia nuclear ya tenemos, y eso es tiempo ganado. La idea de Gadafi de un Israel que englobara israelíes y árabes, judíos, sunitas y drusos, siempre me pareció el auténtico camino hacia la paz, aunque Gadafi estuviera pensando en úteros más que en pistolas. De todas formas, no hay solución posible mientras Jerusalén siga estando ahí.

[Frommer]

Catacrac! final

[Cadavre Exquis]

Phase 2 of the Office Revolution is Here; What Tenants Need to Know

Ruth Colp-Haber · 2024.05.23

Ruth Colp-Haber

Since the onset of the pandemic, there has been a revolution in office work as technology allowed people to work from home. As I have discussed at length in many commentaries there are pluses and minuses to this approach.

However, one thing is certain. Any predictions that employees would be returning to the office in droves at the behest of management have been well and truly debunked. Over four years into Covid, the metrics show that roughly half of office employees come to the office both in New York City and the entire country. Further, a recent employer survey by Flex Index has found that as of the second quarter of 2024, 69% of companies with U.S. headquarters offer some degree of work location flexibility, and just 31% require their employees to be full-time in the office. This is a significant increase from the first quarter of 2023, when just 51% of employers offered workplace flexibility, As a corollary, the largest plurality of employees work on a “structured hybrid” basis, which only requires them to be in the office certain days as opposed to a full-time work requirement.

Accordingly, as remote work has now become normalized, we can confidently declare that phase 1 of the office revolution is over.

Sadly, this particular form of urban carnage is just beginning. Work from home has been a slow-moving time bomb as leases which used to be 5+ years in duration come off the books and many tenants take less space when they make their next move. Some new developments like Hudson Yards have prospered, but only at the expense of older buildings whose tenants they cannibalized. Four years on from the start of Covid, work from home is now solidly entrenched in the business landscape and is here to stay. Except for the top buildings most landlords can’t cope with a major long-term vacancy and haven’t found alternative uses for the space. Conversions to residential use are fine but are relatively rare because they are expensive and most office buildings don’t have suitable floorplans allowing for the change of use.

We are now in phase 2 of the office revolution, which is effectively the finance phase. We take no pleasure in pointing this out, but many landlords are struggling due to the triple whammy of reduced rent rolls, higher operating costs, and limited financing options.

Values are plummeting in most buildings and borrowing costs are significantly higher. Even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates at some point, most economic observers believe that the days of easy money are in the rear-view mirror and we can expect a higher neutral rate of interest. One good piece of news is that these wise men and women believe there’s no long-term threat to the financial system here. The big banks are very well capitalized and can handle the bad loans. Of course, that is not to say that other debacles like Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank are not in the cards.

This new phase also has an impact on tenants. Traditionally, it is the landlord who requests the financial statements of its prospective tenants to assess if they will be able to pay the rent during the lease term. However, that paradigm has now been turned on its head. For the first time in history, tenants need to become familiar with the financial condition of their landlord. That is because so many buildings are in default, or even facing foreclosure, and that number will only increase.

There are many recent examples of this distressing trend. During just the past week or so, there was news that the commercial backed security loan collateralized by Bloomberg Tower at 731 Lexington Avenue is going to special servicing (even though Bloomberg just signed a new lease to remain there until 2040), an action to foreclose upon 750 Lexington Avenue was filed, and a Financial Times article reported on the difficulties being experienced by RFR, the half-owner of the Chrysler Building and the trophy Seagram building which has only been able to get a one-year loan extension.  And this is just the tip of the iceberg.

What all these landlord defaults also mean is that tenants need to protect themselves in negotiating certain lease provisions. Most importantly, tenants should demand that the funds for any future work that needs to be done by the landlord be placed in escrow to ensure completion. Similarly, tenants should ensure that all commissions be put in escrow so that they are not liable for any of these expenses.

Another concern is what will happen to building services in the event of a default or foreclosure. The best answer is hopefully nothing if the bank, special servicing agent or trustee is maintaining the building properly. For example, the venerable Helmsley Building at 230 Park Avenue has been in special servicing for over six months. To my experienced eyes, there is no difference whatsoever at 230 Park since it went to special servicing.

However, that may not always be the case. While I don’t expect that landlords will be turning off the heat in February, a new manager might look to reduce expenses in less visible ways, such as skimping on security and cutting maintenance staff. We haven’t seen this yet, and the focus has all been put on improving services to attract tenants, but when push comes to shove it is possible that services in buildings under pressure could deteriorate. Remember that the tenant leases are the most important asset a landlord has so any owner will want to keep up the appearances of a building and not lose more tenants. Nevertheless, it is important to assess the future financial viability of a building by understanding the tenant rent roll and the landlord’s financing profile.

To be fair, any building can be sold at any time. Even in the best of times and in the best buildings, the quality of a new owner can be problematic.

However, the bottom line is this. Almost every major landlord must deal with a significant drop in demand for its inventory which is now baked in the cake. Danger lies ahead in the form of more building defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies in the second phase of the office revolution. Hopefully, I am wrong but by all appearances phase 2 is just getting started. Let’s just hope it stays under control.

If you need assistance navigating this new phase of the office market or just have questions, please contact us at Wharton Property Advisors. We always represent our clients with creativity, integrity, diligence and independence.

Thank you,

Ruth Colp-Haber

Saludos.

[tomasjos]

Más oficialización. Hemos superado los precios de la burbuja
https://www.larazon.es/madrid/burbuja-inmobiliaria-madrid-aun-mas-grande-que-2007-precios-venta-alquiler-marcan-maximos_20240523664f24a83a4a7f000130718d.html
Los sueldos, con los datos de Becerra, están por debajo de los de hace diez años, y los precios superan los de 2007. O sea, que estamos más allá del limite.
Por cierto que la inflación alemana está en el 4,7 con lo que de bajadas de tipos nada.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/b5863435-451c-4ed7-925c-1464dabf32a9

Capital Group and KKR partner to offer private assets to wider audience

World’s largest active asset manager and buyout firm to make available hybrid public-private funds to wealthy investors


   Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
   https://www.ft.com/content/b5863435-451c-4ed7-925c-1464dabf32a9

   Capital Group and KKR are combining forces to offer hybrid public-private investment funds to wealthy individuals, in a move that seeks to open up the fast growing alternative sector to a much wider range of investors.

The partnership links Los Angeles-based Capital, the world’s largest active asset manager with $2.6tn in equity and bond funds and a strong distribution network, with KKR, one of the best known private credit providers. Their first products, blended public and private credit funds, will launch next year.

The two firms say this is the start of a broader platform that will make alternatives — private equity, credit, infrastructure and real estate funds that have previously been sold almost exclusively to institutions and the super wealthy — available to a broader range of investors.(...)

The move comes as traditional asset managers have been snapping up alternatives providers in an effort to move into the higher fee-paying area and counter outflows from actively managed public funds. Meanwhile, the biggest alternatives providers, including KKR and Blackstone, have been rolling out products aimed at wealthy individuals.

But growth has been hampered by a lack of distribution channels and some investors have concerns about the liquidity of alternative funds, which hold harder-to-sell assets and offer only quarterly withdrawals.(...)

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/empresas/tecnologia/2024/05/22/664dc59c468aebf8048b45a3.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/catalunya/2024/05/22/664ddacd468aeb10208b45b2.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/mercado/2024/05/23/664e382d468aeb4d328b456e.html

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/mercado/2024/05/23/664e39d9e5fdead20c8b456e.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/mercados/2024/05/23/664e7647468aebab4f8b4572.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2024/05/23/664e43bce5fdead10c8b4570.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20240523/page/38/textview

Pekín estudia elevar aranceles a coches de EEUU y la UE

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2024/05/22/664def82e5fdea4f538b45b2.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/starwood-reit-sets-drastic-redemption-limits-on-liquidity-crunch

Starwood’s $10 Billion REIT Tightens Redemption Limits to Ease Liquidity Crunch

New restrictions are expected to last six months to a year
Sternlicht’s Starwood will reduce its management fees

Starwood Real Estate Income Trust, a $10 billion fund managed by Barry Sternlicht’s Starwood Capital Group, is taking a drastic step to preserve liquidity by imposing tighter limits on investors’ ability to pull money.

The vehicle, known as SREIT, will cap monthly redemptions at 0.33% of its net asset value, and 1% a quarter, according to a filing Thursday. Previously, the trust allowed withdrawals of up to 2% of net asset value in a given month, and 5% a quarter.

The new restrictions will likely last six months to a year and are viewed by executives as preferable to selling assets at discounted prices, according to a shareholder letter. Starwood Capital Group will reduce its management fees as long as the new limits are in place.

“As a fiduciary to our stockholders, we cannot recommend being an aggressive seller of real estate assets today given what we believe to be a near-bottom market with limited transaction volumes, and our belief that the real estate markets will improve,” Sternlicht and SREIT Chief Executive Officer Sean Harris said in a letter to shareholders.

The move is the latest indication that higher-for-longer interest rates are causing cracks in the commercial-property market. SREIT and competitors including Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust faced rising pressure in the second of half of 2022 when investors began requesting more money back, causing the vehicles to enforce previously disclosed limits.

In October 2022, SREIT’s redemption requests exceeded the 2% threshold but all those requests were fulfilled, with the trust leaving some requests unmet a month later.

Redemption pressure eased at the end of last year when it appeared the Federal Reserve was getting ready to cut interest rates. Shareholders requested just $314 million in December 2023, down from a peak of $715 million in January of that year.

But with the economy roaring, policymakers started warning that rate cuts might not happen as soon as previously forecast, complicating the outlook for real estate.

“This was a very hard decision to make, but having managed through six major downturns over our 30-year history, we believe we are making the best decision for all shareholders,” Sternlicht said in an emailed statement. “We anticipate the real estate markets are bottoming and will continue to improve from here, so further leveraging the vehicle or selling our portfolio’s assets to meet monthly redemptions would negatively impact all investors.”

Starwood’s trust has continued to face outflow pressure. In April, shareholders requested $518 million in redemptions. The fund paid out just about $192 million.

SREIT had $752 million in liquidity at the end of April, including $275 million in an undrawn credit line, according to the shareholder letter. With liquidity worsening, executives had to choose between selling assets, increasing borrowings or limiting redemptions.

[Saturio]

Tengo una duda. ¿Cómo se va a combinar la Transición Estructural esperada (la del ladrillo) con la Transición Estructural existente (la del coche)? Soy solo un pobre aficionado, cegado por la fiscalidad y sus cargas indirectas, pero no entiendo la relación entre el precio de alquiler en el barrio de Salamanca (cerca del IE, con todos sus alumnos "fresas" latinoamericanos con acceso a la cuenta bancaria en dólares en Panamá de papá) y la guerra en Ucrania.

Si entiendo la relación entre el precio de la energía y las tensiones con Rusia por un "quítame-ese-país-que-se-cree-independiente" y está en el camino entre Moscú y el Mar Negro. Que la transición hacia el automóvil eléctrico para todos(?) se haya forzado desde las instancias políticas mediante decretos y reglamentos que modifican aspectos fundamentales del sistema imponiendo "derechos de emisión de CO2", prohibición de coches de combustión en un horizonte temporal breve, restricciones en el uso de los ya existentes (saludos al compañero de gremio de mi ex mujer que piensa que cada vez que saco el coche que heredé de mi padre mato a un pollo de pingüino y por eso me multa con 200€ cada vez que una de las cámaras que cercan la ZBE me retrata. Multas que el TS impide cobrar porque Varea está muy lejos de Complutum), etc.... se ve claramente afectado por el corte (ejem, ejem) del suministro de gas ruso que garantizada energía barata a los primos teutones mientras presumían de conciencia ecológica.

Según veo, la crisis autoprovocada (las crisis son el motor del cambio, eso de la oportunidad y los ideogramas chinos), que pretendía estimular la inversión y adopción generalizada de la tecnología energética eléctrica y renovable se encontró con otras crisis, la del cerramiento que el miedo a la pandemia impulso, la guerra del volveremos a ser un Imperio en tres días que van a ser tres años y el río incesante de liquidez que sale de las impresoras de Fort Worth y los ceros y unos de la FED.

No sé cómo la burocracia política que tiene que pilotar (o surfear) estas olas va a querer añadir otra, por muy necesaria que sea.

PD: Entre los círculos más ultras de la ultra-derecha existe un término "Surfear el Kali Yuga". El Kali Yuga, según los hinduistas, es la "era de la riña y la hipocresía, del vicio y la miseria" la "época de falta de virtud y bondad" , el cuarto, más breve, final y peor de los Kali. Sí, el nuestro, que durará hasta el 428,899 A.D. Según la alt-right, para surfear estos tiempos hay que prepararse para lo peor (generalmente acumulando cosas que hacen pum-pum).

Lo que hay detrás de la electrificación y de los combustibles para la aviación no derivados del petróleo sino del maiz del que USA es el primer productor mundial, es el abandono de la triangulación del petrodolar (USA produce dólares, con esos dólares compra(ba) petróleo a las democracias del Golfo, las democracias del Golfo con los dólares o bien compraban deuda nominada en dólares o bien armas americanas). El Deep State usano (que existir existe pero no es lo que dicen los de ANON) ya tiene descontado que en un futuro no va a poder seguir extorsionando a las democracias del golfo (O sostener a los sátrapas que las gobiernan democráticamente).

Un ejemplo.

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2016/05/17/mercados/1463466090_644175.html

El Departamento del Tesoro reveló hoy por primera vez en cuatro décadas el volumen de deuda federal en manos de Arabia Saudí, que situó en 116.800 millones de dólares en marzo de este año, y en medio de las polémicas surgidas entre Washington y Riad en los últimos meses. El dato se conoce después de que Bloomberg News presentase una petición bajo la Ley de Libertad de Información.


Hasta ahora, los bonos de EEUU en manos de Arabia Saudí se incluían en una categoría del Tesoro que agrupaba a más doce exportadores de petróleo, por lo que no se conocía con precisión.


De este modo, el gobierno saudí se encuentra entre la docena de países que cuentan con un mayor volumen de deuda estadounidense, lista que encabeza China con 1,3 billones de dólares y Japón con 1,1 billones de dólares.

La cifra es menor de la estimada por los analistas, que calculaban que la deuda estadounidense en poder de Riad podría alcanzar los cerca de 750.000 millones de dólares.

No obstante, los economistas señalan que es probable que sea más de los 118.600 millones reconocidos por el Tesoro, ya que estos bonos también pueden depositarse en la Reserva Federal (Fed), que no desvela esta información, o en otros centros financieros internacionales.

Para que nos hagamos cargo del percal:

https://www.expansion.com/blogs/blog-jsq/2023/10/06/el-problema-de-la-deuda-de-ee-uu.html#:~:text=Los%20principales%20tenedores%20de%20deuda,de%20la%20deuda%20del%20tesoro.

En el caso de China, ha reducido su posición en bonos del tesoro en casi un 30% en los últimos cinco años. No parece que esta tendencia vaya a cambiar en el futuro cercano.

La cuestión es ¿quién va a financiar a USA?. Pues parece que poca gente. No le van a quedar acreedores de tamaño y capacidad suficiente. Así que tienen que cambiar su posición de necesidades de financiación infinita.

-Pasar de ser importadores de petróleo a exportadores, exportar el gas que tienen a montones y no usan o desperdician. Curiosamente hay que electrificar los coches y no las casas que es lo que más hidrocarburos consume.
-Conseguir que todo el mundo se suscriba a Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney+, HBO, que todo el mundo use Uber y compre Teslas pagando la suscripción del FSD y se vaya de vacaciones a un AirBnB. En el futuro no tendrás nada (pagando suscripciones mensuales puntuales a prestadores de servicios americanos) y serás feliz.
-Intentar enganchar al que podamos. Si los europeos nos empiezan a comprar tanques y aviones para renovar sus arsenales de hace 40 años mejor que mejor.
-A Netanyahu le hacemos un monumento en la Avenida de Pensilvania por montar lío aunque sea a costa de los Palestinos y del futuro de su propio pueblo porque los Patriots van a buen precio.

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-says-buying-house-184515477.html

Warren Buffett Says 'Buying A House Is Usually A Lousy Investment' — Here's Why

While many people view homeownership as a hallmark of financial stability and wealth building, legendary investor Warren Buffett says it includes overlooked costs, which could make buying a house a poor investment.

"Buying a house is usually a lousy investment," said Buffett, who has lived in the same Omaha, Nebraska, home he purchased in 1958 for $31,500 — about $336,164 in today's dollars.

Buffett's home, now worth about $1.4 million, is his only real estate investment. Buffett's estimated net worth is about $136.8 billion.

First, there's the down payment. During Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s 2021 annual meeting, Buffett talked about his homebuying experience, noting that the down payment was about 10% of his net worth. He delayed buying a house because he wanted to use the money for other investments, to which his wife consented.

Interest, property taxes and homeowners insurance account for a significant portion of the monthly mortgage payment. Owning a home also ties up funds that could be used to invest in stocks or bonds.

Buffett also said homeownership does not guarantee significant financial returns compared to other investment strategies, such as stocks.

With escalating home prices and high mortgage interest rates, buying a home has become challenging for many Americans, and many are choosing to rent instead — a smart move, according to financial adviser Dave Ramsey.

According to Ramsey, renting can be a strategic choice that can save people from stretching their finances too thin and will buy them time until they can afford a house.

Ramsey and Buffett aren't alone in their opinions that renting may be a wiser choice than purchasing a home. Grant Cardone, another high-profile social media personality, said rent is often half the cost of a mortgage because of high interest rates, homeowners insurance, and property taxes.

[asustadísimos]

[Visionado obligatorio:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCWG8jGdB2g
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Sachs]