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Under-Appreciated German and Japanese Wage Developments Submitted by Marc To Market on 03/15/2013 09:24 -0400ChinaFranceGermanyGross Domestic ProductItalyJapanMarket ShareToyota Last week more than 3/4 a million state workers in Germany won a 5.6% wage increase over a 2-year contract. Today I.G. Metall, the largest and most important private sector union, confirmed that at negotiations the begin on March 19, it will seek a 5.5% wage increase over the next year. Separately, large Japanese companies have indicated willingness to grant higher wages and/or bonuses as the spring labor negotiations get under way.It is, of course, easy to succumb to the cynical view that the civil servant wage increase in Germany is an election year ploy. Last year's pay hike for municipal workers did not in fact carry over and boost Merkel's CDU in the numerous state elections last year. Simply put, the situation is much more complicated.Real wages rose in Germany rose for the third consecutive 2012 and appear set to do so again here in 2013. Look at the quarterly pattern of nominal wage increases in Germany last year: 2.1% in Q1, 2.5% in Q2, 3.0% in Q3 and 3.2% in Q4. Private sector wages increases have little to do with any purported government electioneering. Last year, I.G. Metall sought a 6.5% increase, but in the end accepted a 4.3% increase covering 13 months--which at some 7 bln euros, was the biggest award in two decades. Yes, the employers association (Gesamtmetall) will push back against the 5.5% demand. It argues that output fell last year and only a small increase is likely this year. The employees are seeking to recoup some of the ground lost to inflation and productivity growth after years of wage restraint. Warning strikes--limited industrial action-- is possible in the coming weeks. The significance of higher German wages is difficult to exaggerate. An increase in disposable income may help fuel domestic demand. Recall Germany, like China, exports around 40% of GDP. China is under pressure to rebalance its economy toward domestic consumption. Some argue this is a natural development. Yet Germany, a mature high income country, has yet to make that transition. Weaker growth in the European periphery and many emerging markets may force Germany to rely more on the demand it can create domestically.Separately, but just as importantly, higher German wages can be an important part of the adjustment process in Europe. The pressure has been on peripheral countries (and France) to boost competitiveness by reducing unit labor costs. Where this has been done (not in Italy or France) it has been concentrated in the public sector with job, wage and benefit cuts. However, the increase in German unit labor costs, all told quite modest, does take some pressures off the peripheral countries have to bear the sole burden of the adjust process.These wage developments, coupled with the OMT and EU efforts that encourage less draconian austerity (by giving at least some countries extra time to reduce the deficit and allow productive public sector investment), reinforce the idea that European officials--not just the ECB--are continued to reduce the risk disintegration of EMU.Over in Japan, auto makers and other large companies are raising wages and/or bonuses in the spring round of labor negotiations. Toyota, for example, recently agreed to the largest pay increase in five years. It granted a bonus equivalent to 5-months average salary and an extra JPY300k payment. The average pay out is JPY2.05 mln (~$21.4k). Bonuses at Nissan were equivalent to 5.5 months of salary with an average payout of JPY2.04 mln.It is hoped that such wage developments in Japan can help accomplish two things. First, it is thought that higher wages can help boost domestic consumption. It would seem to make sense. However, it remains to be proven as the small living spaces and culture suggests that the Japanese household is not about to "shop until they drop" as Americans are thought to do. In addition, the propensity to consume in Japan is extremely stable. It is possibly that under the watchful eye of the archetype Mrs Watanabe, who manages household finances, may look to boost financial assets rather than consumption.Second, to the extent that businesses seek to pass on the higher wage will to customers it may help the new BOJ arrest deflation. This too has to be seen as Japanese business traditionally compete by retaining market share when faced with an price shock. We have argued that the real challenge post-crisis is to generate aggregate demand. Export oriented strategies borrow from other countries' aggregate demand. We see real wage growth helping, even if on the margins, to boost demand. At the same time, real wage growth also is an important way to redress the growing inequality that has reached unprecedented proportions and undermines not just the broader economy, but the political center as well.
http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/naechster-schritt-usa-forcieren-freihandelsabkommen-mit-der-eu/7967596.html"EEUU fuerza el tratado de libre comercio con la UE"En 90 dias empiezan las negociaciones y me da a mi que se van a dar prisa en aprovarla. Seguis viendo esa competencia/rivalidad entre el euro y el dolar? No la veo ni en politica exterior, ni en politica economica en las circunstancias actuales. Para que esta dinamica se rompa, la UE en su forma actual se tendria que romper tambien y refundarse sobre otras bases y otra orientacion geopolitica y monetaria
EU opens to Serbia after Kosovo dealThe European Commission encouraged EU governments on Monday to start membership talks with Serbia, in recognition of Belgrade's accord with Kosovo last week that marked a milestone for the Balkans' recovery from the collapse of Yugoslavia in the 1990s.Talks could start within the year - if all European Union capitals agree at a meeting in June - provided Serbia puts in place all the conditions of the deal meant to address the status of the Serb-populated northern part of its former province.
Atención a esta entrada de Zero Hedge, dónde previene que, entre otras cosas, fondos de pensiones irlandeses se enfrentan a un haircut del 100%!!:http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-04-23/forewarned-irish-savers-have-just-been-cyprusd-and-theres-much-more-cyprusingAs you can see, this is actually MUCH WORSE than the deal the Cypriots got. These Irish pensioners are facing a total wipeout - 100% LOSS!!!If you're not disenfranchised, yet, hold on... It get's worse, much worse. The Irish Examiner published this today...
Suiza ha decidido este miércoles restringir los permisos de trabajo de todos los ciudadanos de la Unión Europea tras activar la cláusula de salvaguarda de la libre circulación de personas. Este mes de febrero, el país alpino ya se había planteado cerrar sus fronteras a españoles, italianos y portugueses, pero al final la restricción se extiende a todos los ciudadanos comunitarios.El Consejo Federal ha cedido así a las presiones de la derecha y, además de mantener las restricciones que ya afectaban a los ciudadanos de los países del este de la UE, las ha extendido al resto de estados miembros por espacio de un año, informa la emisora RTS.Precedente con el EsteEsta cláusula está incluida en el acuerdo bilateral de libre circulación firmado con Bruselas en 2002. En principio, no parece incompatible con el acuerdo de Shengen que permite la libre entrada y salida de ciudadanos, sin entrar en la cuestión del permiso de residencia.De hecho, este mecanismo ya fue usado por el Gobierno de Berna hace unos meses para controlar la entrada de inmigrantes procedentes de Estonia, Hungría, Letonia, Lituania, Polonia, Eslovaquia, Eslovenia y República Checa.Incremento del 10% de los permisos de trabajoBerna tiene la posibilidad de aplicar este mecanismo de protección si se produce un incremento de 10% en el número de permisos de trabajo concedidos a los ciudadanos de la UE, con respecto a la media de los tres años precedentes.La cláusula, según prevé el propio acuerdo, no puede durar más que un año y el Gobierno suizo podría verse forzado a levantarla para dejar entrar a trabajadores de sectores estratégicos para el país, como la agricultura o el turismo, que dependen de la mano de obra extranjera.
¿De qué tipo de restricciones se trata?Suiza introducirá este año una cuota de ciudadanos provenientes de países de la Unión Europea a los que se les puede otorgar el permiso de residencia llamado “Autorización de tipo B”, es decir, un permiso de residencia de más de un año. Los límites son: 2.180 para ciudadanos de los 8 países europeos del este que ya tenían limitado el acceso y 57.700 para los demás, entre los que figura España. Rumanía y Bulgaria tienen cerrado el acceso como europeos, por no haber sido admitidos todavía al tratado de Schengen.¿También afectan a España?También. Los españoles que quieran trabajar en Suiza serán incluidos en la lista de los 57.000 que pueden ser autorizados como máximo. De todos modos, dado que cada año el balance migratorio suizo es de unas 66.000 personas, la imposición de contingentes solo tendría un efecto notorio en caso de que hubiese una avalancha muy superior a los flujos normales.¿Y si quiero ir a trabajar a Suiza qué debo hacer?Lo mismo que habría hecho antes de que se anunciase la introducción de contingentes. Son las autoridades suizas las que deben decidir si se ha alcanzado o no la cuota que imponen.¿Un país puede imponer restricciones de forma unilateral?Si, según las reglas entre Suiza y la UE, hasta 2014 puede invocar situaciones extraordinarias para imponer restricciones. Esta es la última vez que podrá hacerlo. No obstante, por razones de seguridad nacional y por periodos concretos y cortos, cualquier país puede cerrar sus fronteras temporalmente.