PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2023

[Zugzwang]

Me ha llegado esto de un amigo al móvil hace un rato. Y lo curioso es el medio que lo saca:

https://as.com/actualidad/politica/yolanda-diaz-promete-un-bono-inmediato-de-1000-euros-para-estos-hipotecados-n/

Yolanda Díaz promete un bono “inmediato” de 1.000 euros para estos hipotecados

La líder de Sumar ha aclarado que su bono para las hipotecas consistiría en un pago de 1.000€ lineal para aquellos créditos de hasta 10 años de vida y 250.000€ de importe de hipoteca.
Actualizado a 23 de junio de 2023

La vicepresidenta segunda del Gobierno y candidata de Sumar a las elecciones generales para el 23J, Yolanda Díaz, ha especificado que el bono social de emergencia para los hogares hipotecados que lleva en sus propuestas para estos comicios será un ingreso “inmediato” de 1.000 euros.

Durante su intervención en las jornadas de verano de la Asociación de Periodistas de Información Económica (APIE), Díaz ha especificado que su bono para las hipotecas consistiría en un pago de 1.000 euros lineal para aquellos créditos de hasta 10 años de vida y 250.000 euros de importe de hipoteca.

¿Cómo se financiaría?

La medida se financiaría con los ingresos procedentes del impuesto a la banca y tendría un coste total de unos 1.000 millones de euros. En este sentido, ha explicado que lo propuesto es una compensación inmediata a través de un bono para hipotecas de hasta 250.000 euros y una antigüedad de hasta 10 años afectadas por el alza del tipos.

“Le ingresaremos un porcentaje que ha sido conservador de 1.000 euros de compensación a todas las personas con estas características”, ha puntualizado Díaz, que además ha argumentado que este mecanismo sí funcionará frente al código de buenas prácticas que no lo está haciendo.

Subida de la cuota hipotecaria

Por si esto fuera poco, la líder de Sumar ha advertido de que con una subida de la cuota hipotecaria de 300 euros y un salario de 1.500 euros mensuales “es imposible vivir”. “Es urgente hacer esta propuesta porque el malestar social existe y es real”, además de suponer “riesgos” para las propias entidades financieras.

Asimismo, ha abogado por mantener la participación del Estado en CaixaBank y por desarrollar herramientas de carácter público que permitan, por ejemplo, financiar grandes proyectos industriales. Con todo ello, se ha mostrado partidaria de actuar “bajo el diálogo”, pero ha señalado la “urgencia” de actuar sobre las cuotas hipotecarias.

Salario Mínimo Interprofesional

Por último, también ha hecho referencia a la propuesta que realizó ayer el presidente del Gobierno y candidato del Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) a las elecciones generales, Pedro Sánchez, de subir el Salario Mínimo Interprofesional (SMI) hasta un 60% del salario medio.

“Yo he subido el SMI hasta alcanzar el 60% del salario medio, tal y como recomienda la Carta Social Europea”, ha declarado la líder de Sumar, que ha recordado que las diferentes subidas se han llevado a cabo con diálogo social. “Si volvemos a gobernar se va a volver a subir en una estrategia deliberada de subida de salarios”, concluyó Díaz.

Como vive de alquiler, me lo ha pasado bastante cabreado diciendo "que iba a votar a Vox". Siempre ha votado a la izquierda, pero resume bien el panorama general.

[Derby]

Más allá de lo puramente retórico , los rentistas echan de menos los años de la burbuja. Creen que el dinero crece de los árboles, porque durante la orgía de crédito barato era lo que pasaba en la práctica. Para ellos la "normalidad" era eso. Y si no sucede así, alguien está jodiendo la marrana.

Realmente "creen" (es una creencia irracional, incuestionada e incuestionable) que la demanda es infinita y que sólo es cuestión de encontrar el nicho de mercado apropiado para ello (inversores extranjeros, etc). Cuando puntualmente topan con la realidad y ésta les abofetea, echan la culpa a quien sea...y cuanto más lejos mejor (el gobierno, la inseguridad jurídica, la UE, etc); asegurándose de esta forma, volver (validar) "confortablemente" a su irracionalidad.

Cuando la supervivencia emocional de la persona descansa de forma tan extrema en la irracionalidad...es complicado, sí. Hay que tomar distancia 

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

Me ha llegado esto de un amigo al móvil hace un rato. Y lo curioso es el medio que lo saca:

https://as.com/actualidad/politica/yolanda-diaz-promete-un-bono-inmediato-de-1000-euros-para-estos-hipotecados-n/

Yolanda Díaz promete un bono “inmediato” de 1.000 euros para estos hipotecados

La líder de Sumar ha aclarado que su bono para las hipotecas consistiría en un pago de 1.000€ lineal para aquellos créditos de hasta 10 años de vida y 250.000€ de importe de hipoteca.
Actualizado a 23 de junio de 2023

La vicepresidenta segunda del Gobierno y candidata de Sumar a las elecciones generales para el 23J, Yolanda Díaz, ha especificado que el bono social de emergencia para los hogares hipotecados que lleva en sus propuestas para estos comicios será un ingreso “inmediato” de 1.000 euros.

Durante su intervención en las jornadas de verano de la Asociación de Periodistas de Información Económica (APIE), Díaz ha especificado que su bono para las hipotecas consistiría en un pago de 1.000 euros lineal para aquellos créditos de hasta 10 años de vida y 250.000 euros de importe de hipoteca.

¿Cómo se financiaría?

La medida se financiaría con los ingresos procedentes del impuesto a la banca y tendría un coste total de unos 1.000 millones de euros. En este sentido, ha explicado que lo propuesto es una compensación inmediata a través de un bono para hipotecas de hasta 250.000 euros y una antigüedad de hasta 10 años afectadas por el alza del tipos.

“Le ingresaremos un porcentaje que ha sido conservador de 1.000 euros de compensación a todas las personas con estas características”, ha puntualizado Díaz, que además ha argumentado que este mecanismo sí funcionará frente al código de buenas prácticas que no lo está haciendo.

Subida de la cuota hipotecaria

Por si esto fuera poco, la líder de Sumar ha advertido de que con una subida de la cuota hipotecaria de 300 euros y un salario de 1.500 euros mensuales “es imposible vivir”. “Es urgente hacer esta propuesta porque el malestar social existe y es real”, además de suponer “riesgos” para las propias entidades financieras.

Asimismo, ha abogado por mantener la participación del Estado en CaixaBank y por desarrollar herramientas de carácter público que permitan, por ejemplo, financiar grandes proyectos industriales. Con todo ello, se ha mostrado partidaria de actuar “bajo el diálogo”, pero ha señalado la “urgencia” de actuar sobre las cuotas hipotecarias.

Salario Mínimo Interprofesional

Por último, también ha hecho referencia a la propuesta que realizó ayer el presidente del Gobierno y candidato del Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) a las elecciones generales, Pedro Sánchez, de subir el Salario Mínimo Interprofesional (SMI) hasta un 60% del salario medio.

“Yo he subido el SMI hasta alcanzar el 60% del salario medio, tal y como recomienda la Carta Social Europea”, ha declarado la líder de Sumar, que ha recordado que las diferentes subidas se han llevado a cabo con diálogo social. “Si volvemos a gobernar se va a volver a subir en una estrategia deliberada de subida de salarios”, concluyó Díaz.

Como vive de alquiler, me lo ha pasado bastante cabreado diciendo "que iba a votar a Vox". Siempre ha votado a la izquierda, pero resume bien el panorama general.

Esto en mi pueblo se llama comprar votos...

Y lo de justificarlo con que se lo van a "sacar" a los bancos... pues no cuela.

Porqué no dice que lo va a "sacar" del IRPF de los trabajadores? A qué no hay pelotas?

Puro caciquismo decimononico. Por lo menos los señoritos del siglo XIX ponían su propio dinero.

[asustadísimos]

[Estos dos comentarios son una maravillosa síntesis de lo que llevamos años sufriendo, no solo en España, sino en todo Occidente:
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2594.msg216455#msg216455

P. S.: Las rentas inmobiliarias son tanto los alquileres como la plusvalía.

P. S. 2: Las rentas inmobiliarias no son primarias —Trabajo & Empresa—; aunque son cuasiprimarias porque son prepagables —se devengan antes que las primarias—, pero presuponen aquellas. Esto es importante decirlo, porque, en efecto, el dinero que se mueve en el timo inmobiliario no sale de la nada: o viene del Trabajo & Empresa pasado o te lo traes del Trabajo & Empresa futuro; este es, precisamente el drama: hemos dejado el futuro yermo; no pasaría nada si los usureros inmobiliarios, de repente, les diera por invertir productivamente sus ganancias; pero esto es imposible; sencillamente, no saben cómo se hace; solo cabe confiscarles, como 'manos muertas' que son.

P. .S. 3: El falsoliberalismo asociado al modelito popularcapitalista predica una suerte de pacto de indiferencia mutua: «eso es el 'mercao', amigo». Encima difunde el bulo de que este pacto es fundamental para encontrar el equilibrio en un óptimo paretiano. No, no, no. ¡Es una estafa! Y te resarces, si eres víctima de ella, dándole tú el timo al siguiente. ¿La obligación de todo ser humano no era ayudar a los demás? ¿En qué pozo séptico estamos metidos? En suma, no olvidemos el componente moral.]

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disturbing-trend-real-estate-investors-130711393.html

Disturbing Trend For Real Estate Investors: Homes Sold At A Loss, Numbers Not Seen Since 2016 — But This Booming Alternative Is Open To Anyone

The glory days of real estate investors buying and flipping homes for quick profits seem to have hit a roadblock. It appears that investors are now losing on approximately one out of every seven homes they sell.

In certain U.S. cities, sky-high house prices and elevated mortgage rates have diminished homebuyer demand, forcing investors to sell homes at a loss. A recent report by Redfin reveals that in March, investors lost money on roughly 13.5% of the homes they sold, while only 4.8% of overall U.S. homes sold at a loss.

February Real Estate Numbers

This comes after a dire month in February, where real estate investors experienced losses on 14.5% of homes sold — the highest rate since 2016 and a far cry from the record monthly low of 2.8% in May 2022. The first quarter of 2023 saw real estate investors purchasing 48.6% fewer homes compared to the previous year as elevated interest rates, declining rents and housing values ate into potential profits.

The decline marks the largest annual drop on record, outpacing the 40.7% decrease in overall home purchases in the major metros Redfin tracks. While these statistics dispel the notion that buying and selling real estate guarantees substantial profits, it's worth noting that investors still enjoy a relatively strong position overall.

Now, the question arises: Where are homes most likely to sell at a loss? According to Redfin, real estate investors are most likely to incur losses in markets that experienced the largest surges in house prices during the pandemic. To determine this, the report examined data from 40 of the most populous U.S. metropolitan areas.

Profitability has been hampered by high mortgage rates, which have increased the monthly payment burden for typical homebuyers. Consequently, the slowdown in homebuying demand has led to reduced sale prices, resulting in a higher share of investor-owned homes being sold at a loss.

Hardest Hit Markets

At the time of the report, the hardest-hit market was Phoenix, where just over 30% of homes sold by investors incurred losses. Following closely were Las Vegas, 28%; Jacksonville, Florida, 20.9%; Sacramento, California, 20.2%; and Charlotte, North Carolina, 17.4%.

Van Welborn, a Redfin agent in Phoenix, shared an example. "I recently showed one of my buyers a three-bedroom, single-family home in Glendale that was listed by an investor. My client ultimately found another house they liked better, and the investor ended up losing about $20,000. The investor bought the home for $450,000 and sold it for $480,000 but put $50,000 of work into it. The house also sold below the $550,000 list price after sitting on the market for almost four months.”

On the flip side, investors are less likely to face losses in affordable areas where housing prices did not experience such drastic increases during the pandemic. Certain South Florida markets have shown more resilience.

For instance, in March, only 1.7% of homes sold by investors in Virginia Beach, Virginia, resulted in losses — a significant difference compared to Phoenix. Following Virginia Beach were West Palm Beach, Florida, 2.4%; Miami, 2.5%; Fort Lauderdale, Florida, 2.5%; and Warren, Michigan, 2.6%.

Why don’t investors wait to sell until the housing market bounces back? According to Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari, many long-term investors who rent out their properties are doing just that. But for many flippers, especially those who made recent purchases, waiting it out is not financially feasible.

In March, approximately 1 in 5 homes sold by home flippers resulted in losses, according to Redfin.

"Holding onto homes that aren't producing income can be expensive because the owner is on the hook for property taxes, along with operating costs and monthly mortgage payments in some cases," Bokhari said. "Many short-term investors are also opting to sell because they know prices may have more room to fall and want to cut their losses."

While the number of investor-owned homes selling at a loss is currently high, it is important to remember that many real estate investors — both large companies and individual investors — continue to achieve gains from buying and selling homes, even in cooling housing markets.

According to Redfin data, the typical investor sold a home in March for 45.9% ($145,714) more than the purchase price. But these gains have diminished from 55.3% ($173,458) the previous year and a peak of 67.9% ($199,274) in June 2022.

Amid concerns of a further slowdown in the economy and home prices, which could present more challenges for residential real estate investors, alternative avenues to participate in the real estate market are worth exploring. If buying and selling homes is currently off the table, consider alternative approaches.

Vacation Rentals

Some real estate experts believe that vacation rentals offer the fastest way to make money in today's real estate market. In 2023, as Americans opt for longer and more luxurious vacations, investing in vacation rentals makes sense when considering all the factors. And the best part? Anyone can get started with just $100.

Jurny, the first artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled hospitality platform, is revolutionizing the short-term rental industry. It reported a staggering 100% increase in daily active users since the launch of JurnyOS 2.0 last month. This cutting-edge operating system, powered by GPT-4 and featuring dynamic AI tools, takes care of all the heavy lifting for property managers. From streamlining operations to enhancing guest experiences, Jurny's all-in-one solution optimizes and automates every aspect of managing short-term rental properties worldwide. Anyone can invest in Jurny for a limited time.

PS. La capacidad de colaboración del ser humano es una característica que va más allá de una obligación o de un dictado moral. Es una necesidad para sobrevivir como especie. Somos seres sociales porque nos necesitamos los unos a los otros. No tenemos alas, veneno o garras. Si no me equivoco la idea, que me pareció bastante correcta, la leí en "The Moral Animal" de Robert Wright.

Desde mi punto de vista, el principal problema del ser humano es la mala memoria  : olvidamos con mucha facilidad lo importante, lo básico, lo esencial. No se puede ir contra la naturaleza de las cosas.

[Mistermaguf]

Más allá de lo puramente retórico , los rentistas echan de menos los años de la burbuja. Creen que el dinero crece de los árboles, porque durante la orgía de crédito barato era lo que pasaba en la práctica. Para ellos la "normalidad" era eso. Y si no sucede así, alguien está jodiendo la marrana.

Realmente "creen" (es una creencia irracional, incuestionada e incuestionable) que la demanda es infinita y que sólo es cuestión de encontrar el nicho de mercado apropiado para ello (inversores extranjeros, etc). Cuando puntualmente topan con la realidad y ésta les abofetea, echan la culpa a quien sea...y cuanto más lejos mejor (el gobierno, la inseguridad jurídica, la UE, etc); asegurándose de esta forma, volver (validar) "confortablemente" a su irracionalidad.

Cuando la supervivencia emocional de la persona descansa de forma tan extrema en la irracionalidad...es complicado, sí. Hay que tomar distancia 

Creo que hay que matizar esa clase de irracionalidad. Podríamos decir que es irracional en su segunda derivada... que viene a ser el enfoque de renta.
Porque en primera instancia, "parece" racional: un bien "muerto" que produce dinero mágico por dos vías a veces superpuestas (alquileres y plusvalía, como bien apunta asustadísimos), que sumado al carácter extremadamente transversal y capilar del artefacto (todos, de algún modo, participamos en el juego de suma cero de la burbuja porque todos -salvo los completamente desposeídos- tenemos alguna relación directa o indirecta con un bien inmueble propio, familiar, de usufructo presente o futuro vía herencia, etc) hace que el tema se haya convertido en un mega síndrome de Estocolmo: cada quien completa o cree completar sus rentas productivas o pasivas (si las hay) con las del pisito, ya sea el empleador, el currito, el abuelo, etc.

La madeja es casi indesarmable, todo el mundo está implicado en el tema, y nadie puede ver que el "efecto riqueza" está sostenido por el empobrecimiento y la descapitalización sistémica.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/2a42bcf8-1ad4-4860-9035-923383100058

What to say about house prices at a dinner party

The topic is back in the news and we haven’t a clue, as usual

As colleagues over the decades will confirm, the investment subject I loathe more than any other is house prices. Even gold — occupying the vacuous outer space of finance — comes a distant second.

And I’ve never typed a word on the yellow metal. So imagine my dread when it became clear I couldn’t avoid house prices any longer. Too much relevant news this week. Emails galore requesting advice.

That readers care is understandable. Here in the UK the value of housing stock is four times that of companies in the FTSE 100. The average price of a flat in some of the poorest suburbs of London easily exceeds my portfolio below.

Clearly a worthy topic, then. So why am I repelled? For starters I don’t own a house, although jealousy isn’t an issue. Nor is being excluded from a global conversation that has dominated my adult years.

No, what grates is the same problem I have with our obsession with interest rates, or the performance of private equity funds. We are blind to the facts, but seemingly don’t care — a mass delusion on an epic scale.

Then those infuriating inconsistencies. Are higher house prices desirable or not? When values fall, we shriek, and governments are blamed for pushing us into negative equity. And yet a housing crisis is also declared when people cannot get a foot on the ladder.

This is why I’d win no friends arguing whether prices are heading down or up. Instead, here are the most popular misconceptions I hear about home ownership at dinner parties. You will see why the invites stopped.

1. “Rupert thinks spending money on rent is just a waste, don’t you darling?”

Fine if you can pay for a house in cash. For the rest of us, why is the interest paid to a bank not a waste? Even with a 3 per cent mortgage over 20 years, interest amounts to a third of the total payments. At 5 per cent over 25 years, it’s three-quarters.

In the UK, two-year mortgages have just risen over 6 per cent, for the first time since 2008. If that rate held for 25 years you’d be purchasing your house twice over. Now that’s what I call a waste, Rupe — that money could have funded a start-up.

2. “Daddy told me house prices always go up. He bought me a flat out of college.”

Well, most assets rise in price due to inflation. In the short, medium and long run, however, the statement is hogwash. Steep and sudden falls, or long periods of prices drifting — such as in continental Europe until recently — are common.

How about the 40 per cent plunge in Hong Kong property prices in 1997, or the one-fifth decline in the US and UK — the former during the financial crisis, the latter in the early 1990s? Daddy must remember those.

Likewise in the medium term, Japanese house prices declined year after year for decades after the bubble burst in 1989 and ended up two-thirds lower on average. Some condos fell 90 per cent in Tokyo.

And in the long run, housing is mostly an awful investment, barely keeping up with inflation in developed countries. FTSE 100 returns are double UK house price growth since 1990. In the US, equities have given you 15 times the return of housing over 100 years.

3. “It’s all about supply and demand . . . no land, building restrictions, blah blah.”

What is ironic about the Hong Kong and Japanese examples, is that locals never expected a crash for the same reasons given in the UK today — that supply is constrained.

Nonsense, look out an aeroplane window. Even in Japan, where just 14 per cent of land is suitable for construction, when the panic set in, suddenly there was plenty of supply. The first thing I noticed when moving to Britain in 1990 was for-sale signs everywhere.

Likewise, demand is hardly inelastic. As with every asset, prices are a function of the incomes that support them. When the Imperial Palace was worth more than California, central Tokyo apartments reached 16 times average gross incomes at their peak.

That is not much more than the 13 times in London today. It’s madness to believe the UK is unique. And even if it is, for the country as a whole, the average house is now about nine times earnings, the highest it has been for 150 years, according to Schroders.

Remember too that because houses are a financial as well as physical asset, prices should also reflect the future. So there is no point arguing about a rosy outlook for Australian or US immigration, for example. As with equities, that should already be discounted.

4. “We’ve decided to go to Barbados this winter — our home has tripled in value.”

Lucky indeed, but you’re only minted if you manage to sell your house while prices are high, if you have properly accounted for the cost and time spent renovating, and if you trade down.

Some people are good at finding a bargain. If your home has tripled in value, however, the chances are you will need to buy a house that has also tripled in value after you sell. Sure, your purchasing power has been maintained versus a renter, but in absolute terms you will only feel richer if you move somewhere cheaper.

5. “You know where you are with bricks and mortar — it’s future proof, isn’t it?”

Here I make two predictions. First, flying cars will drastically reduce the price differential between urban and rural house prices. Second, no one will want your flat or suburban home when they can have a mansion by the sea in virtual reality. 

[Derby]

https://www.marketplace.org/2023/06/22/when-moving-means-a-higher-mortgage-rate-why-sell/

When moving means a higher mortgage rate, why sell?

Just about everyone who owns a home in this country is hanging on to it. The number of existing homes, as opposed to newly built, that sold in May was 20% lower than a year earlier. That’s according to data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors.

Even if people want to move, many who bought or refinanced a couple of years back are loath to give up a 3% interest rate on their mortgage, especially if it means buying a new house at a rate well above 6%.

In Kate Sam’s household, sleepovers are not really doable.

“You can hear everything from anywhere,” Sam said.

She has two kids, ages 4 and 8. And she’d like to sell their small house in Baltimore to buy a bigger place so they could host sleepovers.

But Sam and her husband refinanced their mortgage in 2021 at a rate of 3%. And now, “it’s just unimaginable to give up the current cost,” she said.

Lots of people are choosing to stay put even if they’d rather sell. Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors, said he expects there to be fewer divorces (!) this year.

“The couple may not like each other, but they love their 3% mortgage rate, so they don’t want to give that up, Yun said.

Others may avoid taking new jobs if it means relocating, he added.

But certain life changes might cause people to make a move — even at those higher rates. Like having a third child when you live in a two-bedroom condo.

“At some point, the financial benefit of staying in the same space loses its luster, so to speak,” said Jonathan Miller, who leads Miller Samuel, a real estate appraisal and consulting firm in New York.

Others want less space and a different layout, said Mark Goldman, a loan officer with C2 Financial Corp., a mortgage brokerage.

“A lot of people, when they age, they want a bedroom on the first floor. They don’t want to be dealing with stairs,” Goldman said.

And then, there are sales in which the homeowner won’t need to buy a new place.

“What I’ve been suggesting to my real estate agents is — watch the obituaries. You know, a lot of times when somebody passes away, the kids don’t want the house, they want the cash,” Goldman said.

And if rates do eventually go down, say, back into the 5% range, Miller expects all those people who’ve been holding out to put up a For Sale sign so they can finally get divorced … or host that sleepover.

[Derby]

Los bancos en UK aceptan aplicar moratorias hipotecarias de 12 meses como mínimo.

https://www.ft.com/content/a54ee69f-4618-4cf4-8356-66b37d15cee9

UK banks agree to 12-month delay on home repossessions

Deal with Treasury comes as interest rates forecast to peak at 6.25% and house prices to fall 10%

UK banks have agreed to wait at least 12 months before repossessing the homes of borrowers who fall behind on payments as Britain grapples with a looming mortgage crisis.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced the deal — which also includes a commitment to allow borrowers temporarily to lengthen mortgage terms without affecting credit ratings — on a day when interest rate expectations rose further and property price projections declined.

Traders now expect UK interest rates to peak at 6.25 per cent, the highest level since 1998, with stubbornly high inflation stoking bets on further tightening.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted on Thursday to increase rates by 0.5 percentage points to 5 per cent, leading to big jumps in monthly mortgage repayments for borrowers on variable rates or needing to refresh fixed-rate deals.

Pantheon Economics on Friday forecast that house prices would fall by 10 per cent peak-to-trough, after previously anticipating an 8 per cent fall, adding: “We expect the downturn to be drawn out, with prices not reaching a floor until the beginning of 2024.”

Repossessions are still at a relatively low historic level, but many experts are worried about the consequences of the recent rise in borrowing costs.

“The last thing that they want to do is repossess a home, but in that extreme situation they have agreed there will be a minimum 12-month period before there’s a repossession without consent,” Hunt said after meeting bank executives in Downing Street.

The policy goes further than Labour’s call this week for a six-month wait before repossession could occur. Under the government’s existing “pre-action protocol”, banks should not repossess a property unless “all other reasonable attempts” to resolve the situation have failed.

One lender emphasised that the existing process already took time and it was rare for a borrower to go from missing a payment to repossession within 12 months.

The chancellor said he had also agreed with lenders that customers could discuss options for adjusting their mortgage without affecting their credit score, in line with existing guidance from the Financial Conduct Authority, the UK watchdog.

Hunt said lenders also agreed that if borrowers changed their mortgage to an interest-only contract, or extended the term of the deal, they could return to their original mortgage deal within six months without affecting their credit score.

“That I think is going to give people a lot of comfort and stop people worrying about having conversations with their banks when they are worried about their financial situation,” he said.

Many banks already offer struggling customers alternatives, including temporarily switching to an interest-only mortgage deal, but Friday’s commitment by lenders standardises such an option across the industry.

Other measures, such as customers talking to their banks without such conversations affecting their credit score, are already available but will be better publicised, one lender said.

Attendees at the meeting included Nikhil Rathi, head of the Financial Conduct Authority, as well as chief executives Charlie Nunn of Lloyds, Debbie Crosbie of Nationwide, Alison Rose of NatWest, David Duffy of Virgin Money and Mike Regnier of Santander UK.

Rathi said: “We’ll move quickly to make any changes needed to support today’s commitments.”

The chancellor has ruled out a return of the mortgage interest relief scheme known as MIRAS. He has also rejected the idea of giving fiscal support to households, arguing the government’s priority is to “strangle” inflation.

The Liberal Democrats have called for a new multibillion-pound support scheme for vulnerable householders. But, instead, the chancellor has encouraged lenders to show forbearance to struggling customers.

Under a December 2022 agreement between banks, regulators and the Treasury, lenders are required to offer tailored support to those unable to keep up their mortgage payments.

[asustadísimos]

[Lo llaman 'lucha contra la inflación', pero es 'lucha contra la inflación de activos' y amunicionamiento para el día después.]

[asustadísimos]

[Al PP no le interesa objetivamente la mayoría absoluta que va a sacar.]

[Derby]

Britain is facing a mortgage crisis. There are no easy answers

London CNN — The UK government and the country’s biggest banks met Friday in a bid to defuse a looming mortgage crisis that threatens hardship for millions and represents a huge political headache for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

The lenders — which account for more than three-quarters of the UK mortgage market — have agreed, among other measures, to give borrowers who default on their mortgages a 12-month grace period before repossessing their homes, the UK Treasury announced.

As interest rates soar toward levels not seen in more than 20 years, borrowers will also be able to reduce their monthly payments — for example, by extending the term of the loan — without that affecting their credit scores.

Jeremy Hunt, the UK finance minister, said in a statement the “measures should offer comfort to those who are anxious about high interest rates and support for those who do get into difficulty.”

The meeting was attended by the chief executives of the country’s biggest lenders, including HSBC (HSBC), Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) and Barclays (BCS).

Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, an investment services provider, told CNN that the measures were a “step forward” but still came at a cost for borrowers.

“If you extend the period of the mortgage, you will be paying interest for longer — so it will cost less each month but more in total,” she said.

Mortgage pain

The announcement comes a day after the Bank of England raised interest rates by half a percentage point to help bring down stubborn inflation. That was the 13th hike in the cost of borrowing for commercial banks since December 2021. It now stands at 5%, the highest level since April 2008, and could end the year at 6% — a two-decade high.

More than 2 million UK mortgage holders paying a fixed interest rate are facing an increase of hundreds of pounds in monthly repayments when they are forced to refinance this year and next.

So much so that more than a million households — or about 4% of all households in the country — are likely to see their savings wiped out by the end of the year by higher mortgage bills, according to estimates by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

“The rise in repayments on top of existing impacts from the cost-of-living crisis will likely push hundreds of thousands of households over the edge of insolvency,” Max Mosley, an economist at NIESR, said in the briefing note released Thursday.

Jake Berry, a lawmaker from the ruling Conservative Party, pressed the government Tuesday about the “mortgage bomb about to go off.”

Sunak is caught in a bind. He has promised to halve inflation and get the economy growing by the end of the year. To achieve the first goal, he needs the Bank of England to keep hiking interest rates. But rocketing mortgage bills could tip the UK economy into a recession as homeowners cut back spending in other areas.

Other than encouraging lenders to relax their repayment terms, the government has few options. It has ruled out offering subsidies or tax breaks to affected mortgage holders, saying that would fuel inflation — which could lead to even higher interest rates, compounding the problem.

Many borrowers bought their homes when mortgage rates were closer to 1% or 2%.

But, this week, the interest on the average two-year fixed-rate mortgage rose above 6%, according to financial product comparison website Moneyfacts.

That’s the highest since the start of December when the mortgage market was still feeling the impact of the disastrous “mini” budget conceived by former Prime Minister Liz Truss.

If mortgage rates remain at that level, households will spend almost £280 ($356) more on their mortgage each month on average, compared with what they were paying in March 2022, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Those aged 30-39 will pay nearly £360 ($458) more.

Brexit partly to blame?

Consumer price inflation in the United Kingdom remained stuck at 8.7% in May, defying forecasts that it would tick down. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose to hit a 31-year high of 7.1%.

That sets the country apart from other major economies, including the United States, where on both measures inflation has started to ease.

Seven years to the day since the UK narrowly voted to leave the European Union, some former Bank of England policymakers blame Brexit for the divergence.

Former central bank Governor Mark Carney told The Daily Telegraph newspaper last week that Brexit was a “unique aspect” of the UK economy that helped explain why its inflation remained so high.

“We laid out in advance of Brexit that [it would create] a negative supply shock for a period of time and the consequence of that will be a weaker pound, higher inflation and weaker growth,” he said.

Then, on Thursday, a former deputy governor at the central bank, Charlie Bean, told BBC Radio 4 that Brexit had made it much harder for UK companies to hire workers at short notice from abroad.

Britain has a “tighter” labor market than its European peers, he said, which was putting upward pressure on wages and, as a result, fueling inflation.

After the latest rise in interest rates Thursday, Hunt said the government would “stick to [its] guns” on keeping rates high to tame high prices.

“Our resolve to do this is watertight because it is the only long-term way to relieve pressure on families with mortgages. If we don’t act now, it will be worse later.”

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-23/china-builder-halts-all-offshore-debt-payment-amid-property-woes

Chinese Builder Halts All Offshore Debt Payment on Property Market Weakness


A Hong Kong-listed Chinese real estate developer said it will suspend all offshore debt payments, citing weakness in the country’s property market, deteriorating sales and constrained liquidity.

“After careful consideration, the company will suspend payments to all offshore creditors to ensure fair treatment among all offshore creditors,” Central China Real Estate Ltd. said after it wasn’t able to pay the interest on its 7.75% senior notes due 2024 at the end of a grace period on Friday.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia_y_finanzas/energia/siemens-energy-cae-bolsa-gamesa.html

Siemens Energy cae más del 30% y admite que la gobernanza con Gamesa "no ha funcionado"

La compañía ha anunciado una corrección a la baja de sus perspectivas de beneficios y estiman un coste provisional de 1.000 millones de euros para hacer frente a los fallos

Siemens Energy, que hace unas horas corrigió sus previsiones de beneficios para 2023 por problemas con las turbinas fabricadas por su filial Siemens Gamesa y este viernes cae en bolsa más del 30%, ha admitido este viernes que la gobernanza entre ambas compañías tras la opa "no ha funcionado" como debería.

Tras anunciar este jueves una corrección a la baja de sus perspectivas de beneficios para este año y estimar un coste provisional de 1.000 millones de euros para hacer frente a los fallos, los consejeros delegados de Siemens Energy, Christian Bruch, y de Siemens Gamesa, Jochen Eickholt, han comparecido este viernes en rueda de prensa, recoge EFE.

Eickholt ha explicado que la cifra de 1.000 millones es una mera estimación, y ha expresado su convicción de que puede ser mayor; sin embargo, ha declinado concretar, y ha asegurado que en la presentación de los resultados trimestrales el próximo 7 de agosto se conocerán más detalles.

Se trata de "una mala noticia", ha indicado Christian Bruch, que ha añadido que aún no ha terminado la investigación y el análisis de lo sucedido con los aerogeneradores de Gamesa.

No es la primera vez, ha dicho, que Siemens corrige sus previsiones, pero "nunca" en la medida del anunciado de este jueves; en su opinión, la "gobernanza" conjunta de ambas compañías tras la opa realizada en 2022 no ha sido suficiente, y aunque ha descartado "llegar a conclusiones precipitadas", ha admitido problemas de comunicación.

Investigación en Siemens Gamesa

Eickholt ha relatado que se ha iniciado una investigación que no ha concluido, cuyas conclusiones de momento son "peores de lo esperado, mucho peores de lo que podíamos pensar, algo nunca visto hasta ahora", sobre vibraciones inusuales en componentes proporcionados por Gamesa.

Parte de los componentes son defectuosos, se trata de "un puñado de fallos" que son un indicador de lo que podría ocurrir en los próximos 20 años, ha señalado Eickholt, que ha reconocido que "no se puede excluir que haya problemas de diseño".

No obstante, ambos han recalcado que es demasiado pronto para hacer un balance definitivo, y han remitido a la presentación de resultados del 7 de agosto, cuando se darán más detalles de lo sucedido.

"No lo vimos antes porque los problemas se han materializado cuando los hemos puesto en marcha", ha dicho Bruch, que ha defendido que "hay elementos positivos" y ha declinado concretar ahora el impacto futuro en el negocio y en la producción, ya que "no se trata de hacer especulaciones".

"Decepcionantes fallos de calidad"

Ha habido "decepcionantes fallos de calidad" relacionados con ciertos componentes, todo lo cual consume "tiempo y dinero", a la vez que suben los costes de producción, de ahí que haya que rediseñar los planes de negocios, ha indicado Eickholt.

Con todo, los dos consejeros delegados han descartado que la opa sobre Gamesa fuera un error, se hizo tras un análisis exhaustivo en el "momento adecuado y fruto de un proceso equilibrado", aunque "nadie tiene una bola de cristal para ver el futuro".

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/paris-climate-summit-gives-fresh-impetus-development-bank-reform-2023-06-23/

Paris climate summit gives fresh impetus to development bank reform

PARIS, June 23 (Reuters) - A Paris summit to discuss reforming the world's financial system scored some notable wins that should tee up greater action before climate talks later this year, though some participants were disappointed with progress to address poorer states' debt.

The Summit for a New Global Financing Pact saw French President Macron host around 40 leaders, many from the Global South, to debate changes to multilateral finance institutions in the face of climate change and other development challenges.

Much of the discussion centred on the key requests of developing nations, framed through the "Bridgetown Initiative" led by Barbados leader Mia Mottley, and her adviser Avinash Persaud said he was pleased with the outcome of the talks.

"It's a roadmap for genuine change," he told Reuters on the sidelines of the talks. "What's emerged here is a real ... understanding of the scale and pace of what is required."

Among the highlights were confirmation that the richer world will likely hit a long-overdue target of providing $100 billion annually in climate finance to poorer countries, a long-delayed debt deal for Zambia, and a package to boost Senegal's renewable energy capacity.

The World Bank and others also said they would start adding clauses to lending terms that allow vulnerable states to suspend debt repayments when natural disaster strikes.(...)