PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Invierno 2018-2019

[Derby]

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/spain-february-manufacturing-pmi-vs-517-expected-20190301

Spain February manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs 51.7 expected

[Derby]

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/james-ball-three-outcomes-brexit-1-5910624

BREXIT DECONSTRUCTED: There are three outcomes left... now pick one

As we have said before, there are only three outcomes left for how the UK’s current stand-off ends: the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal, the UK’s parliament votes to revoke Article 50 and we remain in the EU on our current terms, or we leave under the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Theresa May.

[wanderer]

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/james-ball-three-outcomes-brexit-1-5910624

BREXIT DECONSTRUCTED: There are three outcomes left... now pick one

As we have said before, there are only three outcomes left for how the UK’s current stand-off ends: the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal, the UK’s parliament votes to revoke Article 50 and we remain in the EU on our current terms, or we leave under the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Theresa May.

Se han dejado una cuarta: se dedicarán a conciencia a "britanear" (ésto es, la versión british de "españolear"), que será su modo de procrastinar haciendo como que hacen (en éso, en nosotros encontrarán perpetua inspiración). Si la EU se pone de los nervios y les reclama que de qué van, o si el pueblo británico, ya sea "remain" o "leave" se queja de la falta de democracia y de sentido de tales decisiones, pues ya se les irá instruyendo sobre los nuevos significados de la palabra "democracia".

And keep going...

[asustadísimos]

SE MASCA LA TRAGEDIA.-

Bolsa e inmuebles en lo más alto del precipicio. Y el modelo, no empezando, sino terminado y en transición, con el endeudamiento más grande de la historia y la perspectiva de un dinero superfuerte.

Sin embargo, el S&P 500 está teniendo su mejor 'year to date' (año hasta la fecha) desde el principio de la Burbuja popularcapitalista, a mediados de los 1980:


Recordemos el gráfico de la Burbuja inmobiliaria, núcleo central de la Burbuja popularcapitalista —no en vano Trump es un magnate inmobiliario 'con man', estafador, como dice su exabogado—:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

No sean cándidos. La actividad económica que se dice que hay solo se debe a la Reburbuja, es decir, al reinflado artificial del modelo muerto, con su consumo exagerado protagonizado por idiotas que se creen ricos por poseer un pisito, en el que las grandes manos andan como locas intentando deshacerse de todo lo que pueden.

Nadie puede hacer nada, salvo esperar el fatal desenlace. Desde 2016, estamos fuera del tiempo 'reglamentario' marcado por el ortograma. Nunca tenía que haber habido ni 'brexit' ni Trump ni 'procés' ni Salvini ni Bolsonaro. El trance va a ser mucho peor de lo que, en principio, habría sido si los resentidos echados al monte no hubieran boicoteado el ajuste gradual forcejeando para intentar estirar el modelo, que incluso ya veían inviable. De hecho, estos dos años últimos han sido una tomadura de pelo sórdida, vergonzante y cabreante.

Nosotros hemos cumplido con creces avisando de que el sistema ya no quiere ver ni en pintura al modelo popularcapitalista, aparte de que hemos acertado nuestras previsiones sobre lo que iba pasando.

Estas próximas semanas van a ser históricas.

[Derby]

Se han dejado una cuarta: se dedicarán a conciencia a "britanear" (ésto es, la versión british de "españolear"), que será su modo de procrastinar haciendo como que hacen (en éso, en nosotros encontrarán perpetua inspiración). Si la EU se pone de los nervios y les reclama que de qué van, o si el pueblo británico, ya sea "remain" o "leave" se queja de la falta de democracia y de sentido de tales decisiones, pues ya se les irá instruyendo sobre los nuevos significados de la palabra "democracia".

And keep going...

Sí, pero esa alternativa ya no es "suya"; no es una auténtica cuarta opción. No será su decisión, sino que supone dejar la relación UK-UE en manos de la UE.

[Negrule]

La industria española entra en recesión tras cinco años de crecimiento

"Un preocupante indicador adelantado clave señala que un sector económico crucial para la economía española y el empleo se apea ya del crecimiento después de un lustro de recuperación. La actividad de la industria española se contrae por primera vez desde 2013 y entra en recesión, según el indicador PMI. Los pedidos ya no crecen, sino que caen y eso pese que las industrias españolas bajaron precios, según el informe de IHS Markit, de referencia para los mercados."

https://www.elmundo.es/economia/2019/03/01/5c79076821efa05c098b460b.html

[wanderer]

Se han dejado una cuarta: se dedicarán a conciencia a "britanear" (ésto es, la versión british de "españolear"), que será su modo de procrastinar haciendo como que hacen (en éso, en nosotros encontrarán perpetua inspiración). Si la EU se pone de los nervios y les reclama que de qué van, o si el pueblo británico, ya sea "remain" o "leave" se queja de la falta de democracia y de sentido de tales decisiones, pues ya se les irá instruyendo sobre los nuevos significados de la palabra "democracia".

And keep going...

Sí, pero esa alternativa ya no es "suya"; no es una auténtica cuarta opción. No será su decisión, sino que supone dejar la relación UK-UE en manos de la UE.

El problema de fondo es que nunca fue realmente su decisión; ahora únicamente éso se hace evidente.

[Juan]

Abundando en lo que comentaba Laborda en Twitter, lo que nos faltaba para el duro es que el Deustche necesite un über-rescate (llevamos años comentando esto, pero si encima viene a principios de la madre de las tormentas...)

Buen fin de semana.

[Derby]

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2019/03/01/bps-records-deflation-in-february-1551425014.html

BPS records deflation in February

Indonesia recorded the year's first deflation of 0.08 percent in February, compared to the 0.32 percent inflation it recorded in January, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Friday.

[Derby]

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/28/home-prices-sydney-melbourne-australia-spiral-down-bust-spreads-imf-to-regulators-reinforce-financial-crisis-management/

Home Prices in Sydney & Melbourne Spiral Down, Bust Spreads. IMF to Regulators: “Reinforce Financial Crisis Management”

“Nothing goes to heck in a straight line”

[Derby]

https://www.businessinsider.es/global-economy-south-korean-exports-set-to-weaken-further-2019-3?r=US&IR=T

'We've only just begun to fall': A closely watched economic bellwether is looking bleak

South Korean exports, a data set often held up as a so-called "canary in the coalmine" for the health of the global economy, and which have slumped in the first two months of 2019, are only going to suffer more as the year goes on, according to analysts at research house Pantheon Macroeconomics.

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/these-two-charts-suggest-the-rally-could-go-from-good-to-bad-to-worse.html

[Elcasco]

https://theoofy.com/37406/housing-bubble-predictions-will-housing-market-crash-soon-in-2019-again-sat-mar-02/

Housing Bubble Predictions: Will Housing Market Crash Soon in 2019

As the prices and sales in the industry of real estate are slowly rolling out, investors as well as buyers and sellers are at fear that another recession may soon hit the market, with the last one said to be a consequence of bad mortgages.

Around 40% of residents of the United States believes that the economy in the US has taken a downturn, while 17% of Americans thinks that the United States is already under a recession or economic depression, based on the recent poll by Gallup.

[Elcasco]

https://moneyandmarkets.com/the-economic-collapse-18-numbers-that-prove-a-recession-is-imminent/

The Economic Collapse: 18 Numbers That Prove a Recession is Imminent

Here are 18 numbers that prove we are heading into a recession, per The Economic Collapse: 

#1 Farm loan delinquencies just hit the highest level that we have seen in 9 years.

#2 We just learned that U.S. exports declined by 4 billion dollars during the month of December.

#3 J.C. Penney just announced that they will be closing another 24 stores.

#4 Victoria’s Secret has just announced plans to close 53 stores.

#5 On Thursday, Gap announced that it will be closing 230 stores over the next two years.

#6 Payless ShoeSource has declared bankruptcy and is closing all 2,100 stores.

#7 Tesla is also closing all of their physical sales locations and will now only sell vehicles online.

#8 PepsiCo has started laying off workers and has committed to “millions of dollars in severance pay”.

#9 The Baltic Dry Index has dropped to the lowest level in more than two years.

#10 This is the worst slump for core U.S. factory orders in three years.

#11 We just witnessed the largest decline in the Philly Fed Business Index in more than 7 years.

#12 In January, sales of existing homes fell 8.9 percent from a year earlier.  That was the third month in a row that we have seen a decline of at least 8 percent.  This is an absolutely catastrophic trend for the real estate industry.

#13 U.S. housing starts were down 11.2 percent in December compared to the previous month.

#14 Compared to a year earlier, home sales in southern California were down 17 percent in January.

#15 In December, home sales in Sacramento County fell a whopping 22.5 percentcompared to a year earlier.

#16 Pending home sales in the United States have now fallen on a year over year basis for 13 months in a row.

#17 More than 166 billion dollars in student loan debt is now “seriously delinquent”.  That is an all-time record.

#18 More than 7 million Americans are behind on their auto loan payments.  That is also a new all-time record, and it is far higher than anything that we witnessed during the last recession.

[Elcasco]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-consumers-are-souring-on-the-housing-market-51551270600

U.S. Consumers Are Souring on the Housing Market

The recent weakness in everything from housing starts to home sales could therefore be a sign of concern. Formerly hot markets such as San Francisco and Seattle have even experienced slight price declines in the past few months.

Things could get significantly worse. Consider the University of Michigan’s long-running Survey of Consumers, which tracks U.S. opinion on a range of economic conditions. Since the end of 2015, which happens to be when the Federal Reserve began raising its short-term interest-rate band, the proportion of Americans saying it is a good time to buy a house has plunged relative to the proportion saying it is a bad time to buy. The decline has been particularly dramatic among younger Americans and among Americans in the top third of the income distribution...