Coches electricos

[Saturio]

Jajajaja.

Ha llegado a mi predicción en un sólo día subiendo un 16%.

Realmente no encuentro ninguna justificación. Pero es divertido.
El único aspecto positivo es que parece que han nivelado algo las pérdidas vendiendo más.
Pero aún están lejos. Muy lejos.

[Saturio]

Prufff, no sé, no sé...
[…]
Supongo que subiremos otra vez hasta 350 o quizás más alto y luego otra vez a bajar hacia el final del trimestre.

Bien supuesto: 350 $ al cierre de hoy; +16,5% de un tirón.

Saludos.

Bah, no tanto. Si hubiese comprado Teslas en el dip, esta mañana a primera hora cuando llevaban un 10% habría vendido.

A ver mañana que pasa.

Venga, me la juego. Yo creo que aún hay gasolina (je, je) y que sube entre un 2 y un 3 y la semana que viene la cosa será anodina con subidas y bajadas.

[JENOFONTE10]

Prufff, no sé, no sé...
[…]
Supongo que subiremos otra vez hasta 350 o quizás más alto y luego otra vez a bajar hacia el final del trimestre.

Bien supuesto: 350 $ al cierre de hoy; +16,5% de un tirón.

Saludos.

Bah, no tanto. Si hubiese comprado Teslas en el dip, esta mañana a primera hora cuando llevaban un 10% habría vendido.

A ver mañana que pasa.

Venga, me la juego. Yo creo que aún hay gasolina (je, je) y que sube entre un 2 y un 3 y la semana que viene la cosa será anodina con subidas y bajadas.

Max.: 355 $ +1,4%, 1 hora después de abrir; cierre a 348,1 $.

Me quito el sombrero, Saturio, si sigues afinando así con tus 'dígitos oscilantes', habrá que pagarte comisión por tus notas.

Muchas gracias por resucitar este hilo. Lo paso muy bien. Imagino la sensación de la madre partera de Sócrates: asistir al parto de Tesla, y aún no saber si será aborto deforme, o el futuro GM eléctrico. 

Saludos y buen finde. 

[Saturio]

Está divertidísimo. Si no fuera porque cuesta mucho ganarlos sería para jugarse unos eurillos.

Al final no he acertado con lo de hoy creo que 354,87 ha sido el máximo con lo que se me podría otorgar un semiacierto y ha cerrado a 348,17.

Ha seguido el patrón que esperaba. Subida fuerte después de resultados pero no me esperaba que fuese tan repentina.

Sigo manteniendo que si no se quieren sustos y vivir tranquilo no hay que entrar por encima de 280.

Otra cosa es jugar.

El pico es junio (361) de 2017 con el anuncio de la entrada en producción del m3. Luego caída hasta resultados del 2q2017 y nuevo techo local en 355. Suelo de 308 en noviembre de 217 en 308 y vuelta a subir con el 4q 2017 a 354, luego otro suelo en 266 en marzo de 2018 para subir a 342, luego otra caídita hasta 298 y ahora subimos a 350...

El que haya acertado en todas se ha hecho millonario.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Saludos.

[JENOFONTE10]

Repercutió en mercado, y cerró a 379,57 $, +11%.

Ya tenemos noticia en español:

Las acciones de Tesla se disparan un 8% después de que Musk afirmase que sacará la compañía de Bolsa
"Estoy considerando sacar a Tesla de la Bolsa a 420 dólares. La financiación está asegurada", escribió Musk

Más tarde, Musk amplió algunos detalles a través de la misma plataforma, afirmando que los actuales accionistas de la compañía podrán permanecer en la firma, pero de forma privada, o vender sus títulos al precio de 420 dólares por acción.
[...]
https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia-y-finanzas/acciones-Tesla-disparan-Musk-Bolsa_0_1161184816.html

'Estoy considerando', no es una OPA de exclusión. Aún. ¿Que dice la SEC para estos casos?.

Mientras se realiza o no, podría ser un puntal rumorológico de primer orden para sortear los próximos trimestres, con M3 de montaje artesanal y probable margen bajo.

Saludos.

[Marv]

https://www.xataka.com/automovil/locura-tesla-600-000-dolares-bolsa-cada-coche-vendido

Interesantes los gráficos.

[JENOFONTE10]

https://www.xataka.com/automovil/locura-tesla-600-000-dolares-bolsa-cada-coche-vendido

Interesantes los gráficos.

Los gráficos están sesgados descaradamente anti-Tesla:

- Intra-empresa: comparan un dato pasado (nº de unidades vendidas en 2017) con un dato basado en expectativas futuras (precio acciones en 8-8-2018), y sabemos el aumento de producción semanal del M3 entre 2017 y 1S-2018.

- Inter-empresas: se comparan fabricantes de VC establecidos desde hace décadas con gamas multimarca y modelos para cada nicho. Los mas vendidos tienen precios base como 15.000 € (Toyota Corolla, o VW Golf) y expectativas de estancamiento en gasolina o franca reducción de ventas en diesel.

Menciona de pasada los otros ingresos de Tesla, en el segmento ex-Solar City, pero los compara con los otros ingresos por financiación de restantes fabricantes, cuando Tesla tiene sus propios concesionarios, y no gasta publicidad en anuncios (salvo lanzamientos 'espaciales', y otras excentricidades de bajo coste perpetradas por Musk en las redes).

Solo con vender los 3.000 M-3 semanales que ya producen desde Junio (aún con poco margen, por montaje parcialmente manual) añadirían 53 x 3.000 = 159.000 uds./año (con precios entre 2 y 4 Corollas), a añadir a los aprox. 100.000 M-S y M-X anuales (con precios entre 4 y 6 Corollas).

Admito que aún no es rentable. Por eso aún no compro sus acciones.

Pero podría llegar a serlo, aunque Solar City se mantenga en un punto muerto, p.ej. en un escenario de subir dos peldaños en ventas hasta aprox. 200.000/300.000 M-3, con margen entre 10-20%, con lo que añadiría entradas (inflows) entre:

- 200.000 uds. x 45.000 $ (mix inicial precio alto) x 10% (margen mont. semi-manual) = 900 M $.

- 300.000 uds. x 40.000 $ (mix con modelos mas básicos) x 20% (montaje robotizado) = 2.400 M $.

Grosso modo. Con tiempo trataré de afinar el cálculo. Las pérdidas de Tesla han sido de 785 (1T18) y 743 (2T18) M$, y sus gastos de inversión (capex, outflow) han anunciado que se reducirán.

Los demás fabricantes tienen que amortizar su I+D obsoleta en VC, mientras tratan de capturar cuota eléctrica en modelos baratos, los mismos que canibalizan precisamente sus propias gamas de combustión en producción masiva.

En resumen: el parámetro elegido para los gráficos (coches/capitalización) está sesgado para arrinconar en una esquina al competidor eléctrico del resto del sector de anunciantes de combustión. Debería haber elegido datos mas comparables de Porsche, Audi, o Volvo para según qué modelos de Tesla. Como análisis bursátil sectorial, mas que flojo, parece patrocinado por la competencia.

Saludos. 

[muyuu]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-musk-lawsuit/lawsuits-accuse-teslas-musk-of-fraud-over-tweets-going-private-proposal-idUSKBN1KV2IQ

Lawsuits accuse Tesla's Musk of fraud over tweets, going-private proposal
Jonathan Stempel
 
(Reuters) - Tesla Inc and Chief Executive Elon Musk were sued twice on Friday by investors who said they fraudulently engineered a scheme to squeeze short-sellers, including through Musk’s proposal to take the electric car company private.

[...]

[Cadavre Exquis]

Nuevo post de Elon Musk respondiendo algunas de las cuestiones que han surgido estos días a raíz del anuncio sobre su intención de privatizar Tesla:

Update on Taking Tesla Private
Elon Musk August 13, 2018

As I announced last Tuesday, I’m considering taking Tesla private because I believe it could be good for our shareholders, enable Tesla to operate at its best, and advance our mission of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy. As I continue to consider this, I want to answer some of the questions that have been asked since last Tuesday.

What has happened so far?
On August 2nd, I notified the Tesla board that, in my personal capacity, I wanted to take Tesla private at $420 per share. This was a 20% premium over the ~$350 then current share price (which already reflected a ~16% increase in the price since just prior to announcing Q2 earnings on August 1st). My proposal was based on using a structure where any existing shareholder who wished to remain as a shareholder in a private Tesla could do so, with the $420 per share buyout used only for shareholders that preferred that option.

After an initial meeting of the board’s outside directors to discuss my proposal (I did not participate, nor did Kimbal), a full board meeting was held. During that meeting, I told the board about the funding discussions that had taken place (more on that below) and I explained why this could be in Tesla’s long-term interest.

At the end of that meeting, it was agreed that as a next step, I would reach out to some of Tesla’s largest shareholders. Our largest investors have been extremely supportive of Tesla over the years, and understanding whether they had the ability and desire to remain as shareholders in a private Tesla is of critical importance to me. They are the ones who believed in Tesla when no one else did and they are the ones who most believe in our future. I told the board that I would report back after I had these discussions.

Why did I make a public announcement?
The only way I could have meaningful discussions with our largest shareholders was to be completely forthcoming with them about my desire to take the company private. However, it wouldn’t be right to share information about going private with just our largest investors without sharing the same information with all investors at the same time. As a result, it was clear to me that the right thing to do was announce my intentions publicly. To be clear, when I made the public announcement, just as with this blog post and all other discussions I have had on this topic, I am speaking for myself as a potential bidder for Tesla.

Why did I say “funding secured”?
Going back almost two years, the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund has approached me multiple times about taking Tesla private. They first met with me at the beginning of 2017 to express this interest because of the important need to diversify away from oil. They then held several additional meetings with me over the next year to reiterate this interest and to try to move forward with a going private transaction. Obviously, the Saudi sovereign fund has more than enough capital needed to execute on such a transaction.

Recently, after the Saudi fund bought almost 5% of Tesla stock through the public markets, they reached out to ask for another meeting. That meeting took place on July 31st. During the meeting, the Managing Director of the fund expressed regret that I had not moved forward previously on a going private transaction with them, and he strongly expressed his support for funding a going private transaction for Tesla at this time. I understood from him that no other decision makers were needed and that they were eager to proceed.

I left the July 31st meeting with no question that a deal with the Saudi sovereign fund could be closed, and that it was just a matter of getting the process moving. This is why I referred to “funding secured” in the August 7th announcement.

Following the August 7th announcement, I have continued to communicate with the Managing Director of the Saudi fund. He has expressed support for proceeding subject to financial and other due diligence and their internal review process for obtaining approvals. He has also asked for additional details on how the company would be taken private, including any required percentages and any regulatory requirements.

Another critical point to emphasize is that before anyone is asked to decide on going private, full details of the plan will be provided, including the proposed nature and source of the funding to be used. However, it would be premature to do so now. I continue to have discussions with the Saudi fund, and I also am having discussions with a number of other investors, which is something that I always planned to do since I would like for Tesla to continue to have a broad investor base. It is appropriate to complete those discussions before presenting a detailed proposal to an independent board committee.

It is also worth clarifying that most of the capital required for going private would be funded by equity rather than debt, meaning that this would not be like a standard leveraged buyout structure commonly used when companies are taken private. I do not think it would be wise to burden Tesla with significantly increased debt.

Therefore, reports that more than $70B would be needed to take Tesla private dramatically overstate the actual capital raise needed. The $420 buyout price would only be used for Tesla shareholders who do not remain with our company if it is private. My best estimate right now is that approximately two-thirds of shares owned by all current investors would roll over into a private Tesla.

What are the next steps?
As mentioned earlier, I made the announcement last Tuesday because I felt it was the right and fair thing to do so that all investors had the same information at the same time. I will now continue to talk with investors, and I have engaged advisors to investigate a range of potential structures and options. Among other things, this will allow me to obtain a more precise understanding of how many of Tesla’s existing public shareholders would remain shareholders if we became private.

If and when a final proposal is presented, an appropriate evaluation process will be undertaken by a special committee of Tesla’s board, which I understand is already in the process of being set up, together with the legal counsel it has selected. If the board process results in an approved plan, any required regulatory approvals will need to be obtained and the plan will be presented to Tesla shareholders for a vote.

Saludos.

[JENOFONTE10]

PUNTO MUERTO DE TESLA ¿2019?.

La SEC cerca a Tesla en un momento clave para la producción del Model 3
[…] Mientras la Comisión de Mercados y Valores de Estados Unidos (SEC, por sus siglas en inglés) ya ha citado al fabricante de coches eléctricos sobre los controvertidos tuits de su consejero delegado, Elon Musk, […].

El negocio de energía solar de Tesla se ha visto forzado a tomar un segundo plano a medida que la compañía blinda su cadena de producción para su Modelo 3, el vehículo más asequible del fabricante de coches eléctricos, que en julio logró por fin tocar la meta de las 5.000 unidades semanales. Para demostrar que sus objetivos son estables, la empresa invitó recientemente a varios analistas a visitar su planta de producción de Fremont, California, para ver de primera mano los avances alcanzados.
[…]
El experto de Evercore ISI, George Galliers, aseguró en un informe a sus clientes distribuido el jueves que "Tesla se encuentra en camino de alcanzar una producción semanal estable de entre 5.000 y 6.000 unidades semanales". "No hemos visto nada que sugiera que el Model 3 no pueda alcanzar las 6.000 unidades o las 7.000 y 8.000 con una inversión mínima", añadió.
A comienzos de mes Tesla dijo que lograría producir hasta 6.000 unidades de su Modelo 3 a finales de agosto, pero la compañía es más comedida a la hora de hablar de otras cifras redondas como los 10.000 vehículos.
[…]
http://www.eleconomista.es/empresas-finanzas/noticias/9335339/08/18/La-SEC-cerca-a-Tesla-en-un-momento-clave-para-la-produccion-del-Model-3.html

Afinando estimación 'dígitos oscilantes':

6.000 uds. x 52 semanas = 312.000 uds./año (faltan dos semanas para finales de agosto).

a) 8.000 x 52 = 416.000 uds./año (2019)

b) Precio medio: 40.000 $ (mix baratero)

c) margen 20% (robotización optimizada)

=> 416.000 x 40.000 x 0,2 = 3.328 M$

Dos últimas Pérdidas trimestrales netas ~ 750 ( x 4 = 3.000 M$).

Ceteris paribus incluiría:
- menos capex y,
- mantenimiento aportaciones de: MS, MX, y ex-Solar City.

Si está tan al alcance de la mano, la 'exclusión financiada' debe haber sido una maniobra de diversión para fundir topes de bajistas (stop loss).

La supuesta financiación de la OPA de exclusión por el fondo saudí, argumentada como 'diversificación' es increíble, viniendo del mayor exportador petrolero (*).

Mas sentido a corto tendría para los árabes dosificar financiación en una Tesla privatizada, actuando como 'palo en la rueda', retrasando la expansión del VE para apuntalar la demanda de combustible y frenar la consiguiente bajada del precio del crudo (OPV de Aramco pendiente).

Puede ser un as en la manga si Musk acaba aflojando el ritmo y no cumple compromisos de volumen con el mercado y le cierran el grifo.

Ningún otro fabricante masivo de VC tiene gran interés en acelerar la transición al VE, con sus propios gastos de I+D a medio amortizar.

Saludos.
_______
(*) A 15h 55' baja 6%, a 315$. El mercado no parece creer en 420$ de OPA, por ahora.

[muyuu]

JPMorgan dice que no se cree que Musk tenga la pasta para llevarse Tesla fuera del mercado.

https://www.reuters.tv/v/PpWW/2018/08/20/growing-skepticism-on-tesla-s-plan-to-go-private

[Cadavre Exquis]

Donde dije digo...

Musk says investors convinced him Tesla should stay public


Elon Musk, chairman and chief executive officer of Tesla Motors now says the company will stay public. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg)

By Tony Romm, Reporter
August 25 at 12:14 AM

Elon Musk reversed course Friday, saying he would keep Tesla as a publicly traded company, bowing to apparent pressure from his own shareholders while the federal government reportedly investigated his attempt to take the car company private.

In a late-night blog post, Musk, the electric car maker’s founder and chief executive, said that “most of Tesla’s existing shareholders believe we are better off as a public company.” He added the process of making Tesla a private automaker was always going to be challenging, but added it would have been “more time-consuming and distracting than initially anticipated.”

Earlier in August, Musk similarly stunned his own investors when he announced — through a nine-word tweet — “Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.” The statement initially sent the company’s stock price soaring. Musk’s move came as Tesla struggled to produce cars, including its new Model 3 sedan, at a fast-enough rate to satisfy demand, all the while burning through cash.

But soon after Musk’s announcement that he wanted to take Tesla private, questions emerged as to the exact nature of his proposal and whether he had secured the funding to take the company private, as he had claimed on Twitter. The Securities and Exchange Commission took interest, probing whether Musk had misled investors about the nature of his financing.

For his part, Musk told investors at one point that he had reason to believe Saudi Arabia could provide the billions of dollars necessary for such a buyout.

Even as he abandoned his plans Friday, Musk said in his blog post that the process affirmed his “belief that there is more than enough funding to take Tesla private.” He said he met with Tesla’s board of directors a day earlier “and let them know I believe the better path is for Tesla to remain public. The Board indicated that they agree.”

“Moving forward, we will continue to focus on what matters most: building products that people love and that make a difference to the shared future of life on Earth,” he said. “We’ve shown that we can make great sustainable energy products, and we now need to show that we can be sustainably profitable.”

El post en cuestión:

Staying Public
Elon Musk August 24, 2018

Earlier this month, I announced that I was considering taking Tesla private. As part of the process, it was important to understand whether our current investors believed this would be a good strategic move and whether they would want to participate in a private Tesla.

Our investors are extremely important to me. Almost all have stuck with us from the time we went public in 2010 when we had no cars in production and only a vision of what we wanted to be. They believe strongly in our mission to advance sustainable energy and care deeply about our success.

I worked with Silver Lake, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, who have world-class expertise in these matters, to consider the many factors that would come into play in taking Tesla private, and to process all the incoming interest that we received from investors to fund a go-private transaction. I also spent considerable time listening to current shareholders, large and small, to understand what they think would be in the best long-term interests of Tesla.

Based on all the discussions that have taken place over the last couple of weeks and a thorough consideration of what is best for the company, a few things are clear to me:

• Given the feedback I’ve received, it’s apparent that most of Tesla’s existing shareholders believe we are better off as a public company. Additionally, a number of institutional shareholders have explained that they have internal compliance issues that limit how much they can invest in a private company. There is also no proven path for most retail investors to own shares if we were private. Although the majority of shareholders I spoke to said they would remain with Tesla if we went private, the sentiment, in a nutshell, was “please don’t do this.”
• I knew the process of going private would be challenging, but it’s clear that it would be even more time-consuming and distracting than initially anticipated. This is a problem because we absolutely must stay focused on ramping Model 3 and becoming profitable. We will not achieve our mission of advancing sustainable energy unless we are also financially sustainable.
• That said, my belief that there is more than enough funding to take Tesla private was reinforced during this process.

After considering all of these factors, I met with Tesla’s Board of Directors yesterday and let them know that I believe the better path is for Tesla to remain public. The Board indicated that they agree.

Moving forward, we will continue to focus on what matters most: building products that people love and that make a difference to the shared future of life on Earth. We’ve shown that we can make great sustainable energy products, and we now need to show that we can be sustainably profitable. With all the progress we’ve made on Model 3, we’re positioned to do this, and that’s what the team and I are going to be putting all of our efforts toward.

Thank you to all of our investors, customers and employees for the support you’ve given our company. I’m incredibly excited to continue leading Tesla as a public company. It is a privilege.

Saludos.

[JENOFONTE10]

"Estaba considerando". Y lo ha descartado.

Por el camino, algún bajista habrá crujido. La SEC dirá si el 'globo' de publicar 'consideraciones' está dentro de normas bursátiles, o le cuesta alguna sanción al amado eco-líder energético-sostenible y financiero-insostenible.

Saludos.
_______
P.D.: Ya hay versión española:

"[…] La evaluación de esta posibilidad se abrió después de que el empresario hubiese criticado abiertamente a los vendedores a corto plazo de las acciones de Tesla, que considera dañan el desarrollo de la compañía. […]"
https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia-y-finanzas/empresas/Elon-Musk-finalmente-Tesla-Bolsa_0_1166583382.html

Al final mas ha parecido típica maniobra anti-cortos que barrunto de inminentismo de crash bursátil. 

[Cadavre Exquis]

Al final mas ha parecido típica maniobra anti-cortos que barrunto de inminentismo de crash bursátil.

Efectivamente, tiene toda la pinta de que era solo una maniobra para frenar el ataque via cortos sobre la empresa.

Cosas como esta:

Additionally, a number of institutional shareholders have explained that they have internal compliance issues that limit how much they can invest in a private company.

o el haber hecho saltar las alarmas de la SEC eran reacciones totalmente previsibles que no me creo que Elon Musk no hubiese podido anticipar.

No es difícil imaginarse la de sudores fríos que debió causar ese tweet inicial de "consideración" en grandes fondos de inversión, así como el consiguiente mosqueo -con toda la razón del mundo- de los reguladores que ya bastante preocupados deben andar con la evolución actual de las bolsas usanas como para encima les den estos "sustos" extra.

Saludos.