Coches electricos

[JENOFONTE10]

Atención que Dacia va a sacar el Spring por 15.000 euros antes de ayudas.
[...]
Volvemos a lo mismo. O cambiamos el concepto o los eléctricos seguirán siendo caros hasta que no se produzcan saltos tecnológicos de importancia. [...]

Manías de los escritores
La de Ortega y Gasset
[...]
—D. José, quisiera que me dijese usted algo de su manía del automóvil.

—Lo primero que le diré a usted es que todo europeo tiene el deber de tener automóvil, y si no, justificar por qué no lo tiene.

—Enseñar las papeletas de empeño que lleve en el bolsillo, por ejemplo.

—Hay que esforzarse por tener automóvil... Sólo el artritismo que obligue a dar largos paseos a pie puede ser una disculpa respetable. El camino de hierro será siempre una cosa importada y un complicado juguete sin arraigo.
[...]
http://www.filosofia.org/hem/dep/gac/gt00601c.htm

El artículo es de 1927. La 'rebelión de las masas' automovilísticas orteguianas, por abaratamiento del coche de gasolina (SEAT Seiscientos), tardó casi 40 años.

Espero que el eléctrico sea barato antes, aunque sea producto chino o rumano. Aún así, la motorización no será el único cambio; habrá costes añadidos en las grandes ciudades densas como propiedad privada exclusiva. Tal vez sea mas compartido, alquilado, teleconducido,...

Saludos.

[Mad Men]

Video muy interesante de como está el mercado del coche eléctrico en China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIICJBEccNk

[Cadavre Exquis]

Tesla wows on latest numbers
Jonathan Shieber @jshieber / 10:24 pm CEST · October 21, 2020

Image Credits: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

Tesla’s  latest quarterly numbers beat analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings per share, bringing in $8.77 billion in revenues for the third quarter.

With the report that Tesla had already beaten Wall Street’s expectations for deliveries earlier this month, the question for today’s earnings call was how much efficiency (and by extension, profit) the electric car and battery company was able to wring out of its manufacturing processes.

Now we have the answer, as Tesla reported net income of $331 million* on revenues of $8.77 billion for the third quarter. That’s up 39% from the year-ago period. Wall Street had expected $8.36 billion in revenue for the quarter, according to estimates published by CNBC.

Revenue grew 30% year-on-year, something the company attributed to substantial growth in vehicle deliveries, and operating income also grew to $809 million, showing improving operating margins to 9.2%.

And while the automotive business is clearly still the star of the show, both Tesla’s solar and storage businesses showed marked improvements in the third quarter.

Energy storage reached a company record 759 Megawatt hours in the quarter, and the company said that megapack production for its large-scale batteries is growing while Powerwall demand remains strong.

“We continue to believe that the energy business will ultimately be as large as our vehicle business,” the company said.

And the solar business is also improving, according to Tesla. “Our recently introduced strategy of low-cost solar (at $1.49/watt in the U.S. after tax credit) is starting to have an impact. Total solar deployments more than doubled in Q3, to 57 MW compared to the prior quarter, with Solar Roof deployments almost tripling sequentially.”

Operating expenses for the company were also up. New factories in Austin and Brandenburg, Germany mean additional expenses, and Tesla poured $1.25 billion into operations, up 33% from the previous quarter.

Earlier this month, the company tipped its hand on the good news around deliveries, saying that it had already delivered 139,300 vehicles in the third quarter, slightly above Wall Street’s expectations, and a notable improvement from last quarter, as well as the same period a year ago.

The delivery beat marked a 43% improvement from the same quarter last year, when the company reported deliveries of 97,000 electric vehicles. And delivery numbers were up 53% quarter on quarter, as the globally spreading COVID-19 pandemic took its toll on sales and production operations for Tesla at its main U.S. factory.

The quarter also saw Tesla unveil a sweeping new vision for its battery manufacturing plans. During the shareholder presentation Tesla chief executive Elon Musk said that he expected to deliver up to 40% more electric vehicles than in 2019 and laid out the road map for better battery manufacturing efficiency.

Tesla’s earnings beat comes amid mounting competition from some of the world’s largest automakers. Yesterday GMC unveiled its Hummer EV and, in September, Ford announced that it would be slashing the price on its Mustang Mach E to “stay fully competitive.”

Meanwhile startups like Lucid Motors  are proving that they could be serious contenders to Tesla’s market dominance. Lucid’s recent pricing for its Air sedan was enough to force Tesla chief executive and head of public relations, Elon Musk, to parry back with a (creatively selected) price cut on the company’s own models.

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

GM Sells Out First Year of Electric Hummer Production
Posted by BeauHD on Friday October 23, 2020 @06:00AM from the supply-and-demand dept.

General Motors said it has sold out the first year's worth of its hulking GMC Hummer EV electric pickup truck after a splashy video reveal on Tuesday. Reuters reports:
The GMC website showed a "reservations full" banner over the Hummer EV "Edition 1," due to start production in the fall of 2021. The next version of the truck, the $99,995 Hummer EV 3X, is not scheduled to begin production until the fall of 2022. The least expensive Hummer EV, starting at $79,995, is scheduled to go into production in the spring of 2024, GM said.

The Hummer EV was designed and engineered in 18 months, GM officials said during a presentation on Wednesday. The brawny truck can "crab walk" sideways on rough terrain using its four-wheel steering system, and has a "Watts to Freedom" mode that accelerates the truck to 60 miles per hour (97 kph) in 3 seconds. The Hummer EV is in part a response to Tesla's Cybertruck, which has a very different but equally eye-grabbing design and a bevy of extreme performance features. [...] Startups Rivian, Nikola Corp and Lordstown Motors are among other companies that have electric pickups in development.

Further reading: GMC Hummer EV vs. Tesla Cybertruck, Bollinger and Rivian

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Les dejo la transcripción de una entrevista de Mathias Döpfner (hombre de negocios y periodista alemán actualmente CEO del grupo editorial Axel Springer SE) a Elon Musk de hace un mes o así.

Es una entrevista larga en la que terminan hablando de lo divino y de lo humano, pero, como siempre, es interesante ver lo pragmático que es Elon Musk y lo poco que le importa ir a la contra de todo el mundo.

[...]

Döpfner: You were given a lifetime award as part of the Golden Steering Wheel in Berlin in 2014. I was sitting next to a very famous CEO of a very big German car company. When you were onstage, I asked him: "Aren't you worried by this guy? I mean, what he's doing is really serious." He said: "No, no, I don't worry. Absolutely not. He may have this crazy idea about battery cars, but that's not going to be a mass-market thing. And secondly, these guys just don't know how to build nice cars. They don't have the engineering expertise."

Musk: That's interesting. We needed to improve for sure.

Döpfner: What do you think about this complacency?

Musk: Complacency is never wise.

Döpfner: He was absolutely serious. "This is never going to work." And now Tesla, which is worth $536 billion today, is 2 1/2 times bigger than VW, Daimler, and BMW together. Herbert Diess said, half-jokingly, Tesla actually could take over VW. Would that be attractive to you at all?

Musk: Our approach is probably going to be to execute independently. But we can either manufacture or license some of our technology to companies like BMW. We're trying to be as pure as possible here with respect to our goal, which is to accelerate the advent of sustainable energy. So, it's not about creating competitive walled gardens or anything like that. We're going to be making our Supercharger network available to other companies; we're going to offer licensing of Autopilot. They want to use our autonomy. And we can potentially do something with battery cells. And, you know, we're willing to license technology to help other companies do the right thing.

Döpfner: Traditional takeovers are not a strategy for Tesla?

Musk: Traditional takeovers are tough because companies have their own culture. Maybe if a company said to us, "Please, we're interested in merging with Tesla," that would be considered. But we wouldn't want to launch a hostile takeover. We would consider it ourselves if they approached us and said they're interested in merging companies.

Döpfner: Did you feel the complacency of the incumbents six years ago?

Musk: The incumbents were quite arrogant. Their words were not kind words.

Döpfner: Were they literally aggressive in a way?

Musk: Oh yeah.

Döpfner: Did it harm Tesla at all? Or did it help because it motivated you and your people?

Musk: We didn't take it too personally. But generally, when there's some new technology in an industry, that is how the incumbents react. It's natural. For us it was in the end a big motivation. At some point we did try to do some kind of joint ventures with Daimler and Toyota. However, we found that the enthusiasm of our partners was not big enough. So, we ended up winding down those partnerships and just stuck to building our own cars. I think that has changed a lot.

Döpfner: What changed exactly?

Musk: It's now clear that people want electric cars. They want sustainable transport. They want clean energy. This really tends to be somewhat of an age-related attitude. The younger somebody is, the more they care about the environment. And so, as time goes by, they grow older, and then they become the decision-makers. That's the normal way of the world.

Döpfner: How many units do you want to sell with Tesla in 10 years?

Musk: There are about 2 billion cars and trucks active in the world, and that number is increasing. Internally we think, we would like to be changing 1% of the fleet in the global fleet per year. To really make a dent, we have got to be past the decimal point. So that would be about 20 million vehicles a year.

Döpfner: Which means that the current valuation is kind of justified. You made a comment and said it's too high. Why did you do that?

Musk: Actually, it was when it was much lower than it currently is. I said that when it was around $800 a share, and that was before the split. We had a five-point split. The stock market is a strange thing. It's like having a manic depressive who's constantly telling you how much your company's worth. And sometimes they have a good day, and sometimes they have a bad day, but the company is basically the same. The public markets are crazy. So, do I think there's a good chance that Tesla's worth this in the future? Yes, possibly more. But it really depends on the probability that people think we will actually get to 20 million vehicles a year. And then also solar and stationary battery storage are a very important part of Tesla's future.

Döpfner: Do your incumbents have a fair chance at playing a role in the kind of competitive ecosystem, or is it too late for them?

Musk: It's definitely not too late. We are seeing a significant movement towards electrification from VW. And a lot of the Chinese companies are very, very, very fast. I would guess the most competitive company for Tesla might be a company that was created in China. The market there is extremely competitive. They have some very good companies, and they work super hard. But at this point, all the major car companies, if not 80%, then 90%, have said they're moving quickly towards electrification.

Döpfner: So, you are bullish, remain bullish on electrification. Has anything changed with regard to self-driving? I remember, a couple of years ago, you were asked when do you think there will be permission for self-driving cars. And you said: "I don't care about the moment when self-driving will be permitted. I care about the moment when it will be forbidden for human beings to drive a car." And then somebody said, this is never going to happen, because nobody can imagine sitting in a car without steering it. And then you said, "Well, nobody could imagine a hundred years ago that an elevator would be possible without a lift boy. Today, you cannot imagine a lift with a lift boy." Do you still believe in that analogy?

Musk: I want to be clear. I'm definitely not trying to take anyone's steering wheel away from them. I'm just saying what will most likely occur, and I am certain about this, is that self-driving will become much safer than a human driver. Probably by a factor of 10. This means that the standard for allowing someone to drive their own car is probably going to become higher. Currently, getting a driver's license is relatively easy, because people need a car to get around. But often they crash their car, for various reasons, because they are drunk or distracted. Or there's a lot of texting while driving. So, the standard for being able to drive your own car in the future when autonomy is 10 times safer than human driving will become much more stringent. That's the most likely outcome.

Döpfner: And what is the time horizon — when will level-five autonomy happen? And do you believe that level four is ever going to be executed? Because then you have a combination of humans and machines, which can be more dangerous than machines only.

Musk: There is a dangerous transition point. Where self-driving is good, but it occasionally has issues, because people maybe get too comfortable, and then they stop paying attention like they should. And then 99.9% of the time, it's good, 1 in 1,000 times it's not. And you really need more like six nines, like a 99.9999 sort of reliability.

Döpfner: But any prediction about by when it will be the new normal?

Musk: I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%.

Döpfner: You will be able to provide that, but what about when it is going to be approved?

Musk: I don't control the timeline for approval.

Döpfner: But Tesla could do it next year in theory?

Musk: Absolutely. I drive the alpha build of the latest, fully self-driving software for Tesla, and many times I can go through a very complicated series of intersections and narrow roads, without ever touching any of the controls. All the way to work and back.

Döpfner: And approval, any prediction for that in the US, in Europe, in China?

Musk: In the US, it will be pretty quick to approve, particularly in certain states. Some countries, like perhaps Norway, will be very quick to approve. They've said that. The EU is where we actually have the most difficulty. It's quite challenging. And the committee only meets every six months, and then the agenda is decided six months before that. So, it's very difficult. Our biggest challenges for regulatory approval are in the EU. This is a case of too many cooks in the kitchen, maybe.

Döpfner: You're also making great progress with batteries, in terms of durability. There is one thing that you need for your product, and that is commodities. You mainly need lithium, you need copper, you need cobalt.

Musk: Actually, nickel is our biggest constraint.

Döpfner: These things are relatively scarce, they come from countries, most of which are not democratic. Some of these goods are mined using child labor and other terrible things. So, isn't this an issue that worries you? On the one hand you're thinking about finding a solution that will contribute to the well-being of the planet and the climate. But the side effect may be that totalitarian regimes are strengthened, or people have to work in terrible conditions.

Musk: We actually publish a sort of sustainability report. We insist, for all of our suppliers, that the materials are ethically sourced. And this is verified with the party organizations. So, I'm highly confident that no child labor is being used for any of our mining operations. If there is, and somebody can point that out, we will take immediate action. Besides that, cobalt is a very important economic resource for the Congo. People are really counting on this money.

Döpfner: Apart from the ethical question, are you not worried that this could just create a scarcity that could one day be a limiting factor, and you might simply not have enough of the material at some point?

Musk: I'm confident that, within the Earth's crust, there's plenty of material for electric vehicles. This is not going to be a fundamental constraint.

Döpfner: Grünheide, I was there this morning, and it's amazing. I remember November last year, when you announced the project at an Axel Springer event in this room. The construction got started in June this year, and in July next year it is going to be finished. Twelve thousand people in the first step, 40,000, potentially, if the whole compound is totally developed. I think your budget was 1.1 billion. Do you think you're going to finish it within budget? And in time?

Musk: Unfortunately, we will exceed the budget. This is the nature of things.

Döpfner: Just to compare: The little concert hall in Hamburg called the Elbphilharmonie was originally budgeted at 77 million, it was finished 10 years later for 866 million. Berlin's new airport was supposed to be finished in 2011 but has only just been opened. Its original budget was 1.7 billion, it finished at 7.3 billion.

Musk: Wow! Well, I sure hope that doesn't happen with us.

Döpfner: What you're doing here is a kind of standing provocation for prestigious real-estate-development projects in Germany — they tend to run out of budget, do not meet the original planned time frame. What is the secret behind your speed? Are you personally so involved?

Musk: I'm personally very involved. Right now, I'm spending more time on the Giga Berlin than any other thing at Tesla. And actually, I'm spending a lot of time on just working through the permits.

Döpfner: You still don't have a permit? You just started with a temporary permit.

Musk: Yeah, technically we have a temporary permit. So, it's a risk. But hopefully we will get the permanent permit soon. We have a good relationship with the permit office — they are working very hard. I do think that, at a high level, someone has to review the rules and regulations in Germany. Actually, it would be very important from a policy standpoint to have a rule-removal committee or some organization, some entity that reexamines the rules to say these no longer apply, these should be changed. Something like that would be really helpful for the whole country.

Döpfner: When you talk to politicians and regulators, do you have the impression that they're seriously considering that?

Musk: The regulators themselves are the ones pressing for the permits, and they're simply executing the rules that they have been given. So, it needs to be at a high level, I think at a political level. Some of these rules are like somebody made them maybe 20, 30, 40 years ago. Maybe they're still good, maybe they're not. And if no one's looking at them, then every year we just get more rules and regulations and laws. And eventually you won't be able to do anything.

Döpfner: You know it is a kind of European issue in particular, perhaps a German issue. Nevertheless, you decided to go to Germany and to build near Berlin. Was that also motivated a bit by this idea, I'm going to the country of the incumbents of the global automotive industry and go right where they are? Or was it purely driven by access to talent, the fact that it's a great and cheap place?

Musk: First of all, it was important for Tesla to have a significant production and engineering presence in Europe. So, you know, it doesn't make sense from an efficiency standpoint to build cars in California and ship them halfway around the world.

Döpfner: Purely for logistical reasons?

Musk: It's also not good for the environment to be transporting cars for such a long distance. So, for efficiency and environmental reasons, it makes sense to build the cars where the customers are reasonably close. And then obviously, we need one in Europe. You at least want to have a factory there, and I think it's also about engineering and design. And I guess I also had a personal preference for the Greater Berlin area, because Berlin's a lot of fun. And there's a lot of talent in Germany, for sure. A lot of my good friends are German. I like going to Berlin.

Döpfner: So hedonistic motives played a role?

Musk: I've got to go somewhere. And, obviously, Munich would be a good choice, but that's kind of BMW's home territory: Bavarian Motor Works, so that sounds OK. But we're up here, basically in Prussia, and I'm a big fan of history. And I like Frederick the Great, and he really was great and anyone who studies history knows he was great.

Döpfner: One hundred years ago, Berlin was the power hub of the creativity business and value creation. And nightlife. Do you want to re-create that?

Musk: Yeah, Berlin has the best night clubs.

Döpfner: We'll come back to that topic later. Could you imagine living here personally?

Musk: Well, I've set out to be a bit of a gypsy or something. I will definitely be spending quite a lot of time in Berlin, yeah.

Döpfner: Are you looking for places?

Musk: No, I'm not really buying any places. I stay at a hotel sometimes.

Döpfner: Where are you sleeping tonight?

Musk: I'm just going to be sleeping at the factory in one of the conference rooms.

Döpfner: You'll be sleeping in a conference room in the factory?

Musk: Yeah.

Döpfner: Alone?

Musk: That's my understanding, yeah. You've got to get a feel for the situation.

Döpfner: You said, in a recent quote, that possession just weighs you down. And that's why you want to get rid of your possessions. And that's why you have literally started to sell property. You have sold belongings. Is it more a metaphor or are you literally selling your belongings?

Musk: I sold my primary home.

Döpfner: The one in LA?

Musk: It was done two months ago. It was actually bought by a guy in China. And then I sold the house I own across the road, which used to be owned by Gene Wilder. It's very much his personality, and I sold it below market to his nephew who grew up there. And then we're in the process of selling my other houses. I guess I'll rent a place somewhere.

Döpfner: So why are you doing it? Because it's too much of an obligation, or it's limiting your freedom? You are considered to be the second-wealthiest person in the world. And now you are getting rid of your property.

Musk: In fact, I'll have basically almost no possessions with a monetary value, apart from the stock in the companies. So, if things are intense at work, I like just sleeping in the factory or the office. And I obviously need a place if my kids are there. So, I'll just rent a place or something. And a lot of the time it's just me, so I don't really need a big place.

Döpfner: So, no art collection, no cars, no real-estate property, no other stuff that we usually associate with wealthy people. Do you believe that getting rid of all that makes you a free man?

Musk: Yes, essentially, I think that also. Like the reason that I am accumulating wealth, if you will, which is really just stock in Tesla and SpaceX. The only publicly traded stock I own is Tesla. That's it. If Tesla and SpaceX go bankrupt, I will go bankrupt personally. One-hundred percent. But I also think, why should I try to have stock anyway. Why do I have all this stuff? Going back to what I was saying earlier, I think it is important for humanity to become a spacefaring civilization and a multiplanet species. And it's going to take a lot of resources to build a city on Mars. I want to be able to contribute as much as possible to the city on Mars. That means just a lot of capital.

Döpfner: And you want to focus on that?

Musk: Yes, and I'm also just trying to make clear that I'm serious about this. And it's not about personal consumption. Because people will attack me and say, oh, he's got all these possessions. He's got all these houses. OK, now I don't have them anymore.

[...]

Döpfner: When we spoke last time about the big projects that you have, from Space X to Neuralink, to The Boring Company, to Tesla. I asked you, among all the projects, which is the most relevant for you. And you surprised me in a way, and then didn't surprise me with your answer. The biggest priority for me is AI, you said. Why?

Musk: We need to be careful with the advent of AI. And who's using it, and who controls it, and is it going to be in the best interest of the people?

Döpfner: The big question is, is AI serving the people? In the long run, will machines serve mankind? Or will mankind serve machines?

Musk: Well, sometimes when I look at everyone on their phone all the time, I wonder, who is the master of who?

Döpfner: You ask yourself that today? The German publisher Johannes Gross said 25 years ago: You have a cellphone? You can be reached at any time? So you belong to the serving people.

Musk: Yes, people are constantly responding to things on their phone. They feel like they own the phone, but perhaps they should ask themselves whether the phone owns them. So, with every interaction we have, we're effectively training the sort of digital group mind. And I think it's perhaps less a question of whether AI is serving humanity or vice versa. Rather, there is a symbiosis. And hopefully, that symbiosis is one that mutually benefits digital and biological intelligence.

Döpfner: When do you think the moment of singularity will be reached? This Ray Kurzweil idea, the moment when things will turn around?

Musk: It's not far off.

Döpfner: Then it is very much a question of AI governance. Is it in the hands of very few superpowerful players? And potentially one day in bad hands? Or is it in many hands? And is there lively competition? Is that the thing you're worried about?

Musk: It's important to have some kind of government oversight. And generally, we agree that there should be a regulatory authority, whenever there's something that is a risk to the public. There are the regulatory agencies for cars, or aircraft, or food, drugs, that kind of thing. And we all think, nobody wants to abolish the FAA — we want them to oversee the aircraft. We want someone checking and confirming the aircraft is safe, and that kind of thing. Same for cars. For food and pharmaceuticals. So, it seems that we should also have regulatory agencies with some kind of public oversight ensuring that the public good is being pursued with artificial intelligence.

Döpfner: Is it fair to say that a project like Neuralink was created in order to empower human brains? In their competition with artificial intelligence?

Musk: Yes! I said jokingly that the slogan of the company was, "If you can't beat them, join them." So realistically, in the long term, we will not be able to beat the intelligence of computers. But perhaps we can achieve a happy symbiosis. And along the way, we can also cure a lot of diseases that are due to brain damage, either congenital or through an accident, or age, or whatever the case may be. So, if somebody has a stroke, or has epilepsy, or seizures, or clinical depression, or something like that, these are all things that can be improved with a brain device.

Döpfner: You went pretty far with a vision that one day and, in the not-too-distant future, language won't be necessary. Because in theory, it is possible to read thoughts, to read desires of the brain, and in a way, translate them or implement them into actions — which sounds great and can solve a lot of diseases and terrible things and has already helped people big-time. On the other hand, that somebody would be able to read my thoughts. I don't know whether that is a vision that I really find desirable.

Musk: No, there will still be privacy. It's not like they can just read your thoughts without your permission or anything. But what I do have to say is, the initial uses of Neuralink will for many years just be solving medical issues, serious brain or spinal issues. The first application we're looking at for Neuralink is to help people who are tetraplegics and quadriplegics and enable them to use their computer or phone easily just using their mind.

Döpfner: And the vision that language could disappear or could at least lose its relevance. I mean we are seeing it with all the translation machines, which are helping to solve that issue. What is your vision here? How far can that go? And how fast can it go?

Musk: Sometimes people get mixed up between what is possible in the long term and what is likely in the near term. The near-term applications for a brain machine interface are really just solving very fundamental brain injury, brain- or spinal-injury issues. That sounds like it's really pretty much an unequivocal good. Then, as the devices get more advanced, in the long term, you could do conceptual and consensual telepathy.

Döpfner: Would you agree that there are three priorities, one being that we need to empower human intelligence, the second priority is, we need good governance of plurality, we have to make sure that it's not in the hands of too few. And the third priority is, we need agile regulation?

Musk: Yes, absolutely.

Döpfner: What role will China then play, with those other priorities? China has a totally different understanding. Everything that helps the well-being of the Central State of China and the Communist Party is supported. Ethical limitations, democracy or freedom and human rights don't play a role. Regulation is a kind of tool to help to make progress more useful for China's superiority. Isn't that a structural advantage for China in this kind of arms race with regard to domination of artificial intelligence? How can the West win it?

Musk: First of all, my experience with the government of China is that they actually are very responsive to the people, in fact, possibly more responsive to the happiness of people than in the US. And when I meet with Chinese government officials, they're always very concerned about this. Are people going to be happy about a thing? Is this going to actually serve the benefit of the people? It seems ironic, but even though you have sort of a single-party system, they really actually seem to care a lot about the well-being of the people. In fact, they're maybe even more sensitive to public opinion than what I see in the US.

Döpfner: That's the first time where I would actually contradict you. China doesn't care about human rights. How could there ever be an equal and level playing field. Do you really see an opportunity for Western democracies to win? What is your scenario, let's say, concerning the role of AI in the hands of politicians and economies like China, America, the West, the East in 10 years?

Musk: Google and DeepMind, which is one company, are by far the leaders in AI, the ones making the most progress. So, I'm not aware of who would even be a close second, maybe open AI. So, China's putting a lot of effort into AI. And they may be making progress. But I've not seen progress that is close to Google and DeepMind.

Döpfner: Let's see. I think China will catch up at light speed. Is the new administration in America going to fundamentally change its policy towards China? Do you think that Biden will provide more continuity with regard to China policy than people expect at the moment?

Musk: I'm not sure what Biden's policies are regarding China. Some aspects of what President Trump did concerning his insisting on equity with regard to tariffs makes sense. I don't necessarily agree with all of the methods that he put forward, but with the concept of, we need to fight for low and symmetric tariffs. That's what we should really be doing worldwide.

Döpfner: Do you fear that, in the context of this whole AI governance and competition, democracy could be weakened, or do you think it can contribute towards improving democracy?

Musk: It has the potential to appear to improve democracy. We need to be a bit careful — democracy is not perfection.

Döpfner: No, only totalitarian regimes can provide perfection. Democracy is always imperfect.

Musk: Exactly. This is the nature of it, Churchill or somebody — Churchill has the greatest number of fake quotes attributed to him — said like, democracy is the worst of all the systems, except for the other ones.

Döpfner: Another wonderful sentence comes from Thomas Mann, in his novel "The Magic Mountain": "Time is a gift of God's given to men, so that he may use it, use it, engineer, in the service of human progress." It seems that that is the shortest description of your life mission.

Musk: I'm trying to use technology to maximize the probability that the future is good. And, at a foundational level, that means ensuring we have a future, which is why sustainable energy is so important for the future of Earth. And then becoming a spacefaring civilization and a multiplanet species is important for the future beyond Earth, to ensure, that in a worst-case situation, if there's a World War III or something like that, or global thermonuclear warfare, and maybe all civilization is destroyed on Earth, that at least it continues to exist somewhere else. And, the civilization on Mars that could end up being a stabilizing influence on Earth. But that, just fundamentally like the probability of consciousness as we know it, and life as we know it, lasting for a long time will be dramatically improved if we're a multiplanet species as a spacefaring civilization.

Döpfner: We'll get back to other planets later, if you allow. The word engineer is very important to you. Almost more important than entrepreneur or founder or CEO or whatever. You define yourself as an engineer.

Musk: I would say probably the main descriptive thing that I think is accurate.

Döpfner: Which is in the end a creative product.

Musk: Yeah, it's like developing new technology to solve problems. Science is great for science. Science is discovering things about the universe that already existed, and engineering is about creating things that never existed. I think to create something new that, as far as we know, never existed in the universe before. That's great.

Döpfner: That's the biggest opportunity in life. And it's a new hierarchy, which, you could say, is very much in contrast to the old model of maximizing wealth, maximizing power. This is really about creating things and solving problems, which also seems to me to be the spirit of Silicon Valley.

Musk: Yes, creating, problem-solving. You know, making life better and more interesting through technology, creating something that never existed in the universe.

Döpfner: Nevertheless, there is an interesting development. Some people are leaving Silicon Valley saying it's getting too conventional, it's driven by too much political bias. That there's too much ruthlessness in abusing people's data. Peter Thiel left the Valley — you know him well. Alex Karp is very critical, and he provoked people with the letter that he wrote on the IPO of Palantir, criticizing the Valley. Where are you in this debate?

Musk: You always have to be careful when things become like a professional sports team. If a team has been winning for too long, they get complacent, they get entitled. That's just how it goes. This is why you don't see the same team winning every championship all the time. It's hard and painful when people we know, when a team or group or location has been winning for too long, then it's inevitable that they start to get entitled. They start to take it for granted, and they can get complacent and a little bit full of themselves.

Döpfner: This certainly has happened to Silicon Valley. Reed Hastings said in his recent book that a company should never see itself like a family or define itself like a family. It should define itself like a sports team. That's why you also have to exchange people if they are not contributing best, whereas in a family, you are basically helping even the weakest members in order to survive. If you share that principle, is the Silicon Valley community becoming too much of a family rather than a sports team?

Musk: I don't think so. It doesn't feel like something is becoming like too much of a family. I've spent more than half my life in California. And where I'm spending most of my time now is actually in Texas. Because we've got the Giga Texas factory being built and the Starship program in South Texas. Except for Austin, I was just asking the team, where would you like to spend your time? Where are you willing to move to, because we have a critical mass of people who need to be willing to move to wherever we do a new Gigafactory. Or take our significant operation in the US. Austin was top of the list, so hence we ended up in Austin.

Döpfner: What is for you the most important invention by mankind?

Musk: Language. Sure, we've got to communicate.

Döpfner: The first step is language. That was the fundamental distinction between humans and animals or lower forms of existence. And then the second step was probably writing.

Musk: Writing was like having a hard drive, things could continue beyond the person. If you try to maintain everything with an oral history, it's very difficult.

Döpfner: Exactly, only writing made it transferable. I would say the third step is publishing because that was a big democratization of knowledge. And you could say the fourth-biggest is digitization, because it accelerated it, made it accessible and global.

Musk: Instant digital communication worldwide is really like humanity developing a nervous system. Whereas previously all communication was person-to-person, phone calls are still person-to-person, and mail was like a person carrying your letter to another person. And now with the internet we have instant access to all the world's knowledge.

Döpfner: I'm super happy and surprised that you gave that answer — language — because it is always my answer. That's because I have an erotic relationship to language and writing and that's in a way fundamental to my job. I would have thought that you would answer that question with: the wheel.

Musk: The wheel. Well, actually, the thing that really matters is two wheels with an axle — that's the big invention. In ancient times, we easily figured out that a round thing rolls easier than a triangle, but putting two round things together with an axle is not immediately intuitive.

Döpfner: You being one of the most analytical and creative brains, is there anything that you absolutely don't understand?

Musk: There are a lot of things that I don't have a great understanding of. I might have a good understanding of most technology. But I'm not sure I understand where humanity is collectively going. Are we going in a good direction? Or are we turning inward and just fighting amongst ourselves?

Döpfner: What is the biggest challenge laying ahead of us?

Musk: The biggest thing is that we are getting to a stage where perhaps our reach extends our grasp. We have all this super-advanced technology, but can we really handle it? This will be the test. This will be a filter for more human civilization: Can we handle the technology and not destroy ourselves? With all these advanced technologies, is it like giving a toddler a shotgun? We've got to make sure we handle this technology in a way that's good for the future. We're going to make sure we have kids so that they as humans continue to exist. We have to think what sort of actions we must take so that the future is good.

Döpfner: When will we see the first human on Mars?

Musk: Most likely six years from now, possibly four years.

Döpfner: When will you go into space yourself?

Musk: Probably in two or three years.

Döpfner: Why do you want to be buried on Mars?

Musk: If you're going to be buried somewhere, it would be cool to be born on Earth and die on Mars — just not on impact.

Döpfner: Why is the SpaceX project so important for you? Is it the dream of a kid? Or is it a real kind of serious need for a plan B, because Earth could one day just not be the right place to be populated by human beings.

Musk: It's not that Mars is a plan B — it's that we want to become a multiplanet species and a spacefaring civilization. Ultimately, with life throughout the solar system, and then beyond our solar system to other star systems. That I think is a future that is very exciting and inspiring, compared to one where we stay on Earth forever, until some eventual extinction event.

I mean, eventually the sun's just going to get bigger and evaporate the oceans. And so, at some point, we better do something. And I think urgency is important for making life multiplanetary, because this is the first time in the 4-1/2-billion-year history of Earth that it has been possible. And this window of opportunity could be open for a long time, and hopefully it is. But it might also be open for only a short time. And it's not necessarily that civilization will end, but our technology level could subside. It could be that we don't end with a bang, but with a whimper. And so, while it's still possible, I think we should take action. But Mars, to be clear, is not going to be some luxurious resort.

Döpfner: It's a symbol for other areas where mankind can prosper.

Musk: Mars is a real planet, so we can create a real civilization there. But in the beginning, it's a bit like Shackleton's ad for the Antarctic where he said, it's dangerous, you might die, it's going to be uncomfortable, it's going to be a long journey. Food probably won't be good. There's also this terrible terror, but it's going to be a great adventure, and be one of the most exciting things that ever happened, if you don't die. That would be my ad for Mars.

Döpfner: What are the biggest issues that need to be resolved to make Mars a livable place?

Musk: In the beginning, it's going to be very difficult because Mars does not have an oxygen atmosphere — it's got a carbon-dioxide atmosphere. You can, over time, convert carbon dioxide to oxygen. That's what happened with Earth. Earth instead of having oxygen, had CO2. The oxygen was mostly CO2, still a lot of nitrogen, and Mars has some nitrogen. So over time, we could go through this process that Earth went through with the CO2 and oxygen, with plants, and liquid oceans. I think it really needs to be warmed up. And in the beginning, we'll just be OK — we've got to create a little base, we've got to have the basics. We have to be able to grow food, and we'll need water. We've got to replenish the propellant for the rockets, because we need to send the rockets back so they can bring more people. Or those that perhaps don't want to stay on Mars have the option of returning to or visiting Earth. So, it's really about the need to get a lot of solar panels, propellant generation, food, all the basics.

Döpfner: What was the most fulfilling moment in your professional life? And in your life in general?

Musk: Certainly the birth of the kids was extremely profound. And from a company standpoint, getting to orbit for the first time was very difficult. Yeah, very emotional. We had three failures before that. You know, I'm the chief engineer of SpaceX. So, it's really primarily my fault that we did not get to orbit. Could have done a better job. But fortunately the fourth one worked. And that's all we had money for at the time actually. Yeah, there was much that didn't work. We would have been bankrupt for sure. So, I was so stressed out, and that actually didn't feel like joy. I just felt a sense of relief.

[...]

Saludos.

P.D.

He tenido que eliminar partes de la entrevista porque la transcripción superaba los 40.000 caracteres que permite el foro como máximo en un post.

Pueden encontrar la transcripción completa de la entrevista aquí.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Chinese Search Giant Baidu To Make Electric Cars
Posted by msmash on Thursday January 07, 2021 @02:25PM from the shape-of-things-to-come dept.

Chinese search giant Baidu plans to make electric vehicles with help from Geely, the country's largest private automaker, according to a new report from Reuters. From a report:

It's the latest Chinese conglomerate to venture into the flourishing electric vehicle market, following shopping giant Alibaba and ride-hailing behemoth Didi Chuxing. Making electric vehicles would also represent a broadening of Baidu's ambition to branch into transportation. Baidu has already spent years working on self-driving technology and is the leading Chinese company in the autonomous vehicle space. Baidu will likely form a new joint venture with Geely for the EV effort, Reuters reports, and will develop software for the vehicle while Geely focuses on the hardware.

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Hyundai Motor Says It's In Early Talks With Apple To Develop a Self-Driving Car
Posted by BeauHD on Friday January 08, 2021 @02:00AM from the combined-forces dept.

South Korean automaker Hyundai Motor said it's in the early stages of discussions with Apple over potentially working together to develop a self-driving car. CNBC reports:

"We understand that Apple is in discussion with a variety of global automakers, including Hyundai Motor. As the discussion is at its early stage, nothing has been decided," a representative from Hyundai Motor told CNBC's Chery Kang. The statement followed a local report from the Korea Economic Daily that said Apple suggested the tie-up and Hyundai Motor was reviewing the terms. The report said both electric vehicle production as well as battery development were included in the proposal, and that the car could potentially be released in 2027.

The news from Hyundai comes just days after Reuters reported that Apple is aiming to begin producing a car as early as 2024. However, it contrasts a Bloomberg report suggesting development work is still at an early stage and it will take Apple at least half a decade to launch an autonomous, electric vehicle.

Saludos.

[Maloserá]

German carmakers outpace Tesla with electrified vehicle surge
BMW, Daimler and VW tripled sales to almost 600,000 last year in race to meet CO2 targets

https://www.ft.com/content/13600422-2e8b-4701-8287-f11fc9b81336
Joe Miller in Frankfurt AN HOUR AGO

BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen tripled their sales of electrified vehicles to almost 600,000 last year, the companies said, outpacing Tesla in Europe as they raced to meet new CO2 reduction targets.

Of the 5.3m cars delivered by the VW brand last year, 212,000 were either solely battery-powered, or hybrids, representing a 158 per cent increase on 2019. Of those, 159,000 were sold in Europe, where carmakers faced the threat of hundreds of millions of euros in fines from Brussels if they failed to bring down fleet-wide emissions.

The VW marque alone sold 117,000 purely electric vehicles on the continent, while Tesla’s deliveries to the region totalled 96,000 in 2020, according to data compiled by auto analyst Matthias Schmidt. BMW Group, which owns the Mini and Rolls-Royce brands, said that of the 2.3m cars it sold worldwide in 2020, almost 193,000 were electrified, an increase of almost 32 per cent on 2019.

In Europe, BMW’s battery-powered or hybrid vehicles accounted for 15 per cent of total sales, helping the Munich-based company reach its EU-mandated targets for the year.

Rival Daimler said last week that it had also achieved its CO2 goals, as it more than tripled sales of Mercedes electric and hybrid cars, which accounted for 160,000 of its 2.2m sales in 2020. The company also sold 27,000 electric Smart cars in the period.

Volkswagen Group, whose brands include Audi, Porsche and Seat, has yet to confirm if it fell short of EU targets, but executives said last month that the company was close to compliance, thanks in part to a late surge in sales of its flagship electric car, the ID.3. The model, which only came on the market in September after software glitches caused significant delays to production, was VW’s most popular emissions-free car, with 56,500 units sold in 2020. “2020 was a turning point for Volkswagen and marked a breakthrough in electric mobility,” said Ralf Brandstätter, chief executive of the VW marque.

Sales of electric cars in Germany were helped by Berlin’s decision in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis to double subsidies for the purchase of emissions-free vehicles, with customers able to get up to €9,000 off the retail price.

In December, for the first time, the market share of electric and hybrid cars in the country outpaced that of diesel engines, according to data from the Federal Motor Transport Authority.

Germans bought twice as many electrified cars as the next largest European market, France, according to Mr Schmidt, accounting for every fourth plug-in hybrid sold in western Europe. “The German government, adding an extra turbo boost to domestic electric vehicle demand, up until now appears to have done the trick,” the Berlin-based analyst said, adding that leasing prices for plug-in hybrids had also hit record-low levels.

Overall, worldwide sales at VW brand fell 15 per cent in 2020, and more than 23 per cent in western Europe. Mercedes and BMW sales fell more than 7 per cent in the pandemic-ridden year.

[Saturio]

Nunca había encontrado nada parecido a este gráfico.

Aquí vemos como el EV no es la panacea contra las emisiones de CO2 puesto que su proceso de fabricación es, de momento, más consumidor (mucho más) de energía que el de los ICE. Lo que tiene su lógica, por eso son mucho más caros.

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/comparative-life-cycle-greenhouse-gas-emissions-over-ten-year-lifetime-of-an-average-mid-size-car-by-powertrain-2018

[Cadavre Exquis]

Penn State Engineers Are Developing An Inexpensive, Thermally-Modulated Battery For Electric Cars
Posted by BeauHD on Tuesday January 19, 2021 @09:02PM from the currently-in-the-works dept.

schwit1 shares a report from Penn State University:

Range anxiety, the fear of running out of power before being able to recharge an electric vehicle, may be a thing of the past, according to a team of Penn State engineers who are looking at lithium iron phosphate batteries that have a range of 250 miles with the ability to charge in 10 minutes. "We developed a pretty clever battery for mass-market electric vehicles with cost parity with combustion engine vehicles," said Chao-Yang Wang, William E. Diefenderfer Chair of mechanical engineering, professor of chemical engineering and professor of materials science and engineering, and director of the Electrochemical Engine Center at Penn State. "There is no more range anxiety and this battery is affordable." The researchers also say that the battery should be good for 2 million miles in its lifetime.

They report today (Jan. 18) in Nature Energy that the key to long-life and rapid recharging is the battery's ability to quickly heat up to 140 degrees Fahrenheit, for charge and discharge, and then cool down when the battery is not working. The battery uses a self-heating approach previously developed in Wang's center. The self-heating battery uses a thin nickel foil with one end attached to the negative terminal and the other extending outside the cell to create a third terminal. Once electrons flow it rapidly heats up the nickel foil through resistance heating and warm the inside of the battery. Once the battery's internal temperature is 140 degrees F, the switch opens and the battery is ready for rapid charge or discharge. [...] Because of the self-heating, the researchers said they do not have to worry about uneven deposition of lithium on the anode, which can cause lithium spikes that are dangerous.

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Ford Plans for All Cars Sold in Europe To Be Electric by 2030
Posted by msmash on Wednesday February 17, 2021 @04:00PM from the moving-forward dept.

Ford has pledged that all of its cars on sale in Europe will be electric by 2030, in the latest move by the world's biggest auto manufacturers to set out plans to move away from polluting internal combustion engines before looming bans on fossil-fuel vehicles across the world. From a report:

The US car giant said on Wednesday that it was going "all in" on electric vehicles and would invest $1 billion converting a vehicle assembly plant in Cologne, Germany, to become its first electric vehicle facility in Europe. It said the first all-electric cars would start rolling off the production line there in 2023. Ford promised that all of its passenger cars in Europe would be "zero-emissions capable all-electric or plug-in hybrid" by mid-2026, before ramping up its ambitions to be "completely all-electric by 2030." "We are charging into an all-electric future in Europe with expressive new vehicles and a world-class connected customer experience," Stuart Rowley, the head of Ford's European operations, said. "Our announcement today to transform our Cologne facility, the home of our operations in Germany for 90 years, is one of the most significant Ford has made in over a generation. It underlines our commitment to Europe and a modern future with electric vehicles at the heart of our strategy for growth."

Saludos.

[el malo]

Ford Plans for All Cars Sold in Europe To Be Electric by 2030
Posted by msmash on Wednesday February 17, 2021 @04:00PM from the moving-forward dept.

Ford has pledged that all of its cars on sale in Europe will be electric by 2030, in the latest move by the world's biggest auto manufacturers to set out plans to move away from polluting internal combustion engines before looming bans on fossil-fuel vehicles across the world. From a report:

The US car giant said on Wednesday that it was going "all in" on electric vehicles and would invest $1 billion converting a vehicle assembly plant in Cologne, Germany, to become its first electric vehicle facility in Europe. It said the first all-electric cars would start rolling off the production line there in 2023. Ford promised that all of its passenger cars in Europe would be "zero-emissions capable all-electric or plug-in hybrid" by mid-2026, before ramping up its ambitions to be "completely all-electric by 2030." "We are charging into an all-electric future in Europe with expressive new vehicles and a world-class connected customer experience," Stuart Rowley, the head of Ford's European operations, said. "Our announcement today to transform our Cologne facility, the home of our operations in Germany for 90 years, is one of the most significant Ford has made in over a generation. It underlines our commitment to Europe and a modern future with electric vehicles at the heart of our strategy for growth."

Saludos.

Espero que no hagan ninguna guarrada con los de combustión y nos permitan conservarlos hasta que ellos solos desaparezcan por "selección natural" (como buen petrolhead que soy).

[Cadavre Exquis]

LG Hopes To Make New Battery Cells For Tesla In 2023 In US or Europe
Posted by BeauHD on Tuesday March 09, 2021 @06:30PM from the supply-and-demand dept.

LG's battery division is planning to build advanced battery cells for Tesla's electric vehicles in 2023 and is considering potential production sites in the U.S. and Europe, according to Reuters. From the report:

Tesla has not yet agreed to a deal that would expand LG's role in its supply chain beyond China, one of the sources said. Last week, the Korean battery maker told Korean reporters it plans to build a U.S. factory where it would make battery cells for EVs and energy storage systems, to cater to U.S. and global customers as well as startups. It did not identify potential customers then, but one of the sources said it was hoping Tesla would buy the batteries.

In September, Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk announced an ambitious plan to develop new cells in-house, prompting suppliers like LG and Panasonic to embrace the unproven technology or face risks of losing a major customer for the longer term. The Korean supplier, a unit of LG Chem, has made samples for the so-called 4680 large-format cylindrical cells, said the sources, who asked not to be identified. It faces technological hurdles and the challenge of scaling up production, people familiar with the matter said.

"LG plans to produce 4680 cells at its new U.S. factory. They plan to build a new 4680 cell line to supply Tesla's Giga Berlin in Europe," one of the sources said, adding Spain is one of candidate for the European plant. One of the sources said LG has never mass produced such large-format cylindrical cells, although increasing battery capacity is the correct call. "Tesla is a major customer, and LG can take risks," another source said. He said LG has not yet secured orders from Tesla for the 4680 cells, still under development. For now, Tesla is sharply boosting orders for 2170 cells used in the Model 3 and Model Y vehicles made in China, the source said.

Saludos.

[cujo]

Nunca había encontrado nada parecido a este gráfico.

Aquí vemos como el EV no es la panacea contra las emisiones de CO2 puesto que su proceso de fabricación es, de momento, más consumidor (mucho más) de energía que el de los ICE. Lo que tiene su lógica, por eso son mucho más caros.

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/comparative-life-cycle-greenhouse-gas-emissions-over-ten-year-lifetime-of-an-average-mid-size-car-by-powertrain-2018

según eso, los hibridos enchufables son los que se llevan el gato al agua.

[Saturio]

Nunca había encontrado nada parecido a este gráfico.

Aquí vemos como el EV no es la panacea contra las emisiones de CO2 puesto que su proceso de fabricación es, de momento, más consumidor (mucho más) de energía que el de los ICE. Lo que tiene su lógica, por eso son mucho más caros.

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/comparative-life-cycle-greenhouse-gas-emissions-over-ten-year-lifetime-of-an-average-mid-size-car-by-powertrain-2018

según eso, los hibridos enchufables son los que se llevan el gato al agua.

Parece lo lógico porque la tecnología más cara (más consumidora de energía en su producción) pesa menos en el conjunto del coche y a la vez es suficiente para una gran parte de desplazamientos, ahorrando combustible.

Supongo que todo esto cambiará cuando los EV aumenten en volumen de producción (economías de escala) y si hay avances en tecnología de baterías.