Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[pollo]

No lo he visto por aqui:

"Lagarde da por terminado un ciclo de estabilidad y apunta a otro de “inestabilidad permanente”"

https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2023-04-17/lagarde-da-por-terminado-un-ciclo-de-estabilidad-y-apunta-a-otro-de-inestabilidad-permanente.html

Supongo que "estabilidad" se refiere a que el pisito no para de crecer.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Meta Is About To Start Its Next Round of Layoffs
Posted by BeauHD on Wednesday April 19, 2023 @09:00AM from the cuts-keep-coming dept.

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Vox:

Meta will conduct another mass round of layoffs on Wednesday, several sources working at the company told Vox. In an internal memo posted to a Meta employee message board on Tuesday evening and viewed by Vox, the company told employees that the layoffs will start on Wednesday and will impact a wide range of technical teams including those working on Facebook, Instagram, Reality Labs, and WhatsApp. A Meta spokesperson confirmed the memo was sent to employees but declined to comment further. The cuts could be in the range of 4,000 jobs, one source said.

"This will be a difficult time as we say goodbye to friends and colleagues who have contributed so much to Meta," Lori Goler, Meta's head of people, said in the memo. Meta employees in North America will be notified by email between 4 am to 5 am PT Wednesday morning, according to Goler's note. Outside of North America, the timelines will vary country to country, and some countries will not be impacted. Meta is also asking employees in North America, whose job allow it, to work from home on Wednesday to give people "space to process the news."

"The layoffs come after Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in March that the company would cut 10,000 more jobs in the coming months, after already cutting 11,000 in November," notes Vox.

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

India Passes China as World's Most Populous Nation, UN Says
Posted by msmash on Wednesday April 19, 2023 @10:00AM from the changing-dynamics dept.

India has overtaken China as the world's most populous nation, according to United Nations data released Wednesday. From a report:

India's population surpassed 1.4286 billion, slightly higher than China's 1.4257 billion people, according to mid-2023 estimates by the UN's World Population dashboard. China's numbers do not include Hong Kong and Macau, Special Administrative Regions of China, and Taiwan, the data showed. The burgeoning population will add urgency for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government to create employment for the millions of people entering the workforce as the nation moves away from farm jobs. India, where half the population is under the age of 30, is set to be the world's fastest-growing major economy in the coming years.

Asia's third-largest economy is now home to nearly a fifth of humanity -- greater than the entire population of Europe or Africa or the Americas. While this is also true for China for now, that's expected to change as India's population is forecast to keep ticking up and touch 1.668 billion by 2050 when China's population is forecast to contract to about 1.317 billion. "India's story is a powerful one. It is a story of progress in education, public health and sanitation, economic development as well as technological advancements," said Andrea Wojnar, Representative United Nations Population Fund India and Country Director Bhutan on State of the World Population Report.

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Tech's Retrenchment Hammers Landlords With Glut of Empty Offices
Posted by msmash on Wednesday April 19, 2023 @10:40AM from the closer-look dept.

US tech giants, grappling with a post-pandemic slowdown, have already laid off tens of thousands of workers. Now they're dumping millions of square feet of office space, pushing vacancies in city centers to record highs and ratcheting up pressure on the commercial real estate industry. From a report:

No sector is looking to sublease more office space than Big Tech, according to Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Amazon.com have all announced plans to reduce their office footprint. Amazon has paused construction at a new campus near Washington, DC, and Microsoft is reevaluating plans for a project in Atlanta.

Some 174 million square feet of office space -- double San Francisco's entire inventory -- is available for sublease across the US, according to real estate brokerage firm Savills. That's almost twice what was available pre-pandemic, Savills said. Companies looking to sublease space are still on the hook for rent for the entirety of the lease. But the retrenchment shows how the tech downturn, which contributed to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and turmoil in financial markets, is spilling into the broader economy. San Francisco, Seattle and New York are bearing the brunt of the pullback. While New York can count on office demand from financial services and legal firms, tech-centric San Francisco has no such cushion. Seattle business groups, meanwhile, are calling for a tax holiday to keep tenants downtown.

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Software Firms Across US Facing Massive Tax Bills That Threaten Tech Startup World Survival
Posted by msmash on Wednesday April 19, 2023 @11:20AM from the closer-look dept.

Across the software development field, founders are experiencing an income tax season that has become an existential threat to their company's survival. Software startups say they were blindsided by shocking tax bills as a result of a change in law related to research and development costs, and if Congress does not provide a retroactive fix, business failures will spread throughout the industry. From a report:

The root of the issue is the inability of lawmakers to extend a key tax provision that had bipartisan support at the end of last year that allows for full expensing of research and development costs under Section 174 of the tax code. That did not come out of nowhere, and was a big disappointment to major corporations that had lobbied for the measure. But for many small business owners who often wear multiple hats, don't have lobbying arms or relationships with big four CPA firms, the change to require R&D amortization over a period of five years first became known this spring when accountants showed them the massive tax bills they owed the government. As word has spread throughout the software community, some owners remain too afraid to look at the full tax cost as they file for tax extensions and accountants revise their returns.

The pain is being felt from the smallest software developers of a dozen or less employees to large venture-backed companies sitting on pre-2022 frothy valuations, with tax bills rising to a level where cash flow is being drained, forcing painful financial decisions. Startups need to take out loans or extend lines of credit at a time of tighter bank lending and higher rates, ask VCs for more money during the worst fundraising environment in over a decade, freeze hiring and contemplate layoffs -- if they have not started making them already within a sector leading the economy in job losses and running at a rate higher than the worst layoffs of the dotcom bubble. Many software firms will make it through this year, but if R&D full expensing treatment is not brought back, they say survival will become an issue. The software development field is the starkest example of the fallout from the R&D tax change because its biggest expense is software development talent. Developers don't come cheap, and until tax year 2022, these companies could fully expense those costs as R&D rather than having to amortize them over multiple years. Industry success relies on the contribution of software talent, but when that cost overwhelms cash flow and profits, it potentially makes the business model untenable.

Saludos.

[sudden and sharp]

Excepto en 1873, 1883, 1893 y 1973, de 1903 a 1906, de 1913 a 1916, de 1923 a 1926, de 1933 a 1936, de 1943 a 1946, de 1953 a 1956, de 1963 a 1966, de 1983 a 1986, de 1993 a 1996, de 2003 a 2006, de 2013 a 2016 los mercaos han subido y bastante. Y en los 18xx fue un rango entre 2,67 y 6,50 puntos para el SPX (visto en Tradingview) con la mayor caída en 1873. Y como no estamos en en el 2073, diría que este año se hace suelo, subida hasta 2026 y luego el catacrack hasta 2033, con el latigazo empezando a finales de 2029. Parece que por esa época coinciden una serie de ciclos que marcan un techo bastante importante (fuentes Larry Williams y Charles Nenner).

Hagan sus apuestas.

[pollo]

Meta Is About To Start Its Next Round of Layoffs
Posted by BeauHD on Wednesday April 19, 2023 @09:00AM from the cuts-keep-coming dept.

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Vox:

Meta will conduct another mass round of layoffs on Wednesday, several sources working at the company told Vox. In an internal memo posted to a Meta employee message board on Tuesday evening and viewed by Vox, the company told employees that the layoffs will start on Wednesday and will impact a wide range of technical teams including those working on Facebook, Instagram, Reality Labs, and WhatsApp. A Meta spokesperson confirmed the memo was sent to employees but declined to comment further. The cuts could be in the range of 4,000 jobs, one source said.

"This will be a difficult time as we say goodbye to friends and colleagues who have contributed so much to Meta," Lori Goler, Meta's head of people, said in the memo. Meta employees in North America will be notified by email between 4 am to 5 am PT Wednesday morning, according to Goler's note. Outside of North America, the timelines will vary country to country, and some countries will not be impacted. Meta is also asking employees in North America, whose job allow it, to work from home on Wednesday to give people "space to process the news."

"The layoffs come after Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in March that the company would cut 10,000 more jobs in the coming months, after already cutting 11,000 in November," notes Vox.

Saludos.

Parece que por fin se ve sin lugar a dudas que el emperador Facebook va en pelota picada, y que el Metaverso es lo que se podìa ver a kilómetros: mucho humo y mucha tontería con un lacito rojo.

[Cadavre Exquis]

José Luis Cava | No cuadra, los bonos no anticipan una recesión profunda. 17/4/23 - 10h

Banking turmoil creates uncertain outlook for bond yields
Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank makes investors doubt further hikes in interest rates, despite high inflation

Chris Flood April 17 2023

Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell holds a news conference in Washington © Leah Millis/Reuters

Turmoil across the banking sector, sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, has ignited fresh doubts among investors over the outlook for interest rates and bond yields — at a time when inflationary pressures globally remain uncomfortably high.

Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic have repeatedly emphasised their determination to bring runaway inflation under control. But additional hikes in interest rates could create more instability across the banking sector and increase the risk of pushing economies into recession.

At the start of April, financial markets were pricing in a 50 per cent chance of a 25 basis point increase in US rates in May, followed by a decline to around 3 per cent by the end of next year.

However, Jim Cielinski, global head of fixed income at asset manager Janus Henderson, expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates at their peak level for longer than the market is currently factoring in, because of policymakers’ failure to achieve their main task: ensuring price stability.

“The notion that US rates can be cut at the first sign of trouble, and that central banks will do more quantitative easing if conditions get tough . . . that era is over,” says Cielinski.

He believes that headline US inflation has passed its peak but will remain structurally higher — and is unlikely to return to the target levels set by the Fed. That leaves investors having to contend with higher inflation risks, greater geopolitical risks, and more uncertainty about the path of monetary policy.

“The front end of the yield curve in most sovereign bond markets provides the most attractive risk-reward balance,” Cielinski says. “The US yield curve is steeply inverted and it is not clear why an investor that is worried about inflation would prefer a 10-year Treasury bond over two- to five-year Treasuries.”

Stephen Jones, chief investment officer for fixed income at Aegon Asset Management, is also concerned that investors are overconfident about inflation returning to very low levels. Aegon is recommending that clients stick with less-risky fixed-income assets, including short-term government and investment-grade bonds.

“Investors can consider adding duration — fixed-income assets that are more sensitive to changes in interest rates — later in the year when the outlook for monetary policy becomes clearer,” suggests Jones.

Uncertainty about the outlook for inflation and interest rates, combined with the danger of problems spreading across the banking sector, has increased volatility in the bond market.

The Ice BofA Move index — a measure of bond market volatility — has risen to levels last seen when Lehman Brother imploded in 2008.

Fraser Lundie, head of fixed income, public markets at Federated Hermes, says that central banks will try to “hold the line” on interest rate policy but disruptive events could become more frequent.

“Policymakers will be aware that things are already breaking due to the tightening of monetary policy, with the difficulties in the US banking sector following only a few months after liquidity problems among UK pension funds triggered a crisis in the gilt market,” he points out.

Federated Hermes says that US and European investment-grade bonds and convertibles are looking more attractive as a result of the pricing shifts that occurred during the banking crisis in March. It is more cautiously positioned in lower-quality high-yield bonds where smaller issuers and private companies have fewer levers to pull if the underlying business encounters problems.

Henrietta Pacquement, head of the global fixed-income team at the US manager Allspring, says that it is “not a surprise” that signs of stress are starting to emerge, given the speed of interest rate hikes over the past 12 months.

“Companies are having to contend with increasing costs and rising wages so we have passed the peak for financial health for the corporate sector,” says Pacquement.

Investment grade bonds still look attractive to Allspring in this “less forgiving economic environment” and the manager also expects opportunities to open up in the high-yielding parts of fixed income later this year, when valuations catch up with the deterioration in corporate fundamentals.

Looking further ahead to next year, Steve Ellis, global CIO for fixed income at Fidelity International, thinks the threat of a credit crunch for US companies — due to problems in the bank sector and the growing risk of a hard landing for the American economy — could force the Fed to cut its main policy rate sharply.

Adding “duration” — exposure to bonds that are more sensitive to changes in interest rates — in US investment grade credit may be an attractive option at this stage in the cycle given its defensive risk exposure to any hard landing.

“Investors should want to take more interest rate risk as the Fed is already providing additional liquidity and likely to loosen monetary policy later this year,” says Ellis.

Ten-year US inflation-linked bonds are offering 1.28 per cent a year above US consumer price inflation — which provides an attractive way to take out some inflation protection, according to Fidelity. But the asset manager is still cautious about the US junk bond market, where the average yield of around 8.2 per cent is still implying a very low level of defaults — around 3 per cent — this year.

“It is not obviously clear that pricing in US high-yield bonds is offering enough protection, given that the US economy is facing a credit crunch and a hard landing,” warns Ellis.

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/home-prices-see-biggest-annual-drop-over-a-decade-redfin

Home prices see biggest annual drop in over a decade

Prices in Boise, Idaho, had the biggest drop in March compared to other US metros

Last month, median U.S. home prices dropped – led by pandemic boomtowns and pricey Bay Area markets – by 3.3% to $400,528, according to real estate brokerage Redfin.

This comes as pending home sales fell to their lowest level since the start of the pandemic in part because elevated mortgage rates diminished demand and a lack of homes for sale limited purchases, Redfin reported. (...)

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-tracker-march-2023/

PS Ahora todo son prisas para cerrar contratos de arrendamiento antes de que se apruebe la Ley (la semana que viene) y blindarlos por 5 años con una renta que es un delito. En Cataluña tenemos experiencia con el índice de precios y funcionó. Cierto es que hubo gente que retiró el piso del mercado, porque había la expectativa de que el TC declararía inconstitucional la ley de contención de rentas de alquiler o la limitación de las rentas en las zonas tensionadas vía índice precios de alquiler...como terminó pasando.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Javi Linares | EL FIN DEL REAL ESTATE EN ESPAÑA: Pedro Sánchez lo ha hecho

Los visados de obra nueva caen un 5% en el arranque de año
Los visados de obra nueva cerraron 2022 en máximos de 13 años hasta las 108.895 viviendas

Autor Redacción | 3 Abril 2023, 13:46

Los visados de obra nueva alcanzaron en enero las 8.427 unidades, un 5,3% menos que en el mismo mes del año anterior, según la estadística del Ministerio de Transportes, Movilidad y Agenda Urbana (Mitma).

Enero supuso un repunte del 3,93% respecto a los datos de diciembre. Este primer mes de 2023 se concedieron 1.770 visados de obra nueva para viviendas unifamiliares, un 13,82% menos que el mismo mes de 2022. En el caso de las viviendas en bloque, el Mitma contabilizó 6.656 visados en enero, un 2,73% menos que hace un año, pero un 6,44% más que en diciembre. Para otros edificios, que no son ni viviendas unifamiliares ni en bloque, se concedió un visado de obra nueva, dos menos que hace un año.

De la estadística también se desprende que la superficie media por vivienda en enero de 2023 fue de 198,2 metros cuadrados en el caso de las viviendas unifamiliares y de 108 metros cuadrados para las viviendas en bloque. En otros edificios, la superficie media fue de 522 metros cuadrados para una sola edificación.

Por el lado de la reforma o restauración de viviendas, enero arrancó el año con 1.796 licencias, un 4,2% interanual menos, pero un 10,2% más que frente al pasado mes de diciembre.

Los visados de obra nueva cerraron 2022 en máximos de 13 años en medio del entorno de incertidumbre. Los visados crecieron un 0,5% en 2022, son 577 unidades más que el año anterior, hasta las 108.895 viviendas, lo que supone el mejor dato desde 2009, según la estadística del Mitma

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Disney Set To Eliminate Thousands of Jobs Starting Next Week
Posted by msmash on Wednesday April 19, 2023 @04:00PM from the up-next dept.

Walt Disney plans to cut thousands of jobs next week, including about 15% of the staff in its entertainment division, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the plans. From the report:

The cuts will span TV, film, theme parks and corporate teams, affecting every region where Disney operates, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the details aren't yet public. Some affected workers will be notified as early as April 24. The company declined to comment. Disney said in February it planned to eliminate 7,000 positions from its workforce of more than 220,000, part of an overall strategy to shave $5.5 billion in annual costs. Cuts are being carried out across the company, the people said, including at Disney Entertainment, a unit created in a restructuring this year as a home for the company's movie and TV production and distribution businesses including streaming.

Saludos.

[muyuu]

Javi Linares | EL FIN DEL REAL ESTATE EN ESPAÑA: Pedro Sánchez lo ha hecho

no lo estoy siguiendo muy de cerca, pero suena a experimento ruinoso

¿alguien sabe algo concreto sobre los controles de alquileres que se supone que van a poner?

[saturno]

Javi Linares | EL FIN DEL REAL ESTATE EN ESPAÑA: Pedro Sánchez lo ha hecho

no lo estoy siguiendo muy de cerca, pero suena a experimento ruinoso

¿alguien sabe algo concreto sobre los controles de alquileres que se supone que van a poner?

Oidos 3 min hasta que suelta que el Gobierno no dice qué tope impone, y lo he cortado,

Lo mejor es leer el proyecto de ley aqui traido el mismo día que se aprobó dicho tope en el acuerdo con ERC y Bildu (y el debate que sigue)
Creo que son 5 páginas más atrás,

busca "ERC bildu vivienda"
El primer post de Cadavre es el 14 de abril

También salgo yo en algún resultado (con ese criterio de búsqueda), Aprovecho para decir que esa misma ley está funcionando en Francia desde la presidencia de Hollande (vamos, casi 10 años, fue la reforma de la ministra Duflot si recuerdo bien), Pero lo que ese video no entiende es que no va de "Real Estate".

En Francia los precios del m2 superan con creces los de España, (no hablemos de la calidad) pero la gente sigue pudiendo alojarse de alquiler, ¿Cómo hacen?

Porque la ley va (más bien  iba, están pasando a otra cosa, supongo que a lo mismo que irá España), va de alojamiento sostenible ofreciendo grandes descuentos fiscales a los que paguen la compra a precio de oroooooooo, de forma que entre desgravación fiscal y el alquiler; "el Pisito se paga solo",




"Real Estate". Si será imbecil, SON TUS IMPUESTOS, IDIOTA,

(Organícense,)

Saludos,

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20230419/page/2/textview

Urge poner freno a la lacra de la 'okupación'

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/04/19/643ede27468aeb6a3b8b4637.html

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/04/19/643f2aca468aeb336c8b45a0.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20230419/page/29/textview

Feijóo pide un pacto de Estado por la vivienda y cercar la okupación

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/mercados/2023/04/18/643eb359e5fdea943a8b458c.html

Saludos.