PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - HoT SuMMeR 2021

[el malo]

Gracias "el malo" por la explicación; es muy coherente.
También pienso que se va a aprovechar la situación para valorar en su justa medida algunos productos que antes salían a un coste más razonable por ser un sub-producto de algo que ya no volverá a consumirse al mismo ritmo;
porque esa reactivación no va a ser a los niveles anteriores, la sobre-capacidad productiva sigue ahí e igual hay que valorar más algunas resinas, plásticos y lubricantes, que son fundamentales en nuestro día a día, que lo que las valoramos cuando se está venga a quemar queroseno

Cambiando de tema, me llama mucho la atención lo a gusto que se sienten inundando todo de dinero los responsables económicos del mundo, véase ahora los sospechosos rescates del fútbol; algo muy en la mente del ciudadano medio.
https://www.eleconomista.es/deporte-negocio/noticias/11358282/08/21/La-UEFA-prepara-un-paquete-de-6000-millones-para-ayudar-a-los-clubes.html

No sé si será la estocada final del sistema tanto QE para luego decir "lo intentamos todo pero sólo se crearon burbujas activomaníacas que paralizaron la economía, como vemos claramente en la vivienda" o si realmente es la enésima patada hacia adelante... pero es que ¡ aún no han llegado las ayudas a la economía ! y una vez lleguen tendremos al menos 2 años de economía funcionando por el propio doping y la mera inercia

Igual es el chute de adrenalina directo al corazón para que no se muera el paciente y poder llegar a 2023 con las reformas encaminadas.
obviamente me refiero a la economía y no al fútbol pero es que la respuesta parece tan clara.... ¿porqué no se bajan los sueldos de los futbolistas / precios de las activomanías aprovechando el virus como catalizador ? Que igual es lo que se está haciendo pero resulta de locos continuar 2 años más en esta situación, además ¿qué presión va a notar quiénes tienen que hacer los ajustes?

En fin

@pastormesetario...genial metáfora de drogas alucinógenas; a veces se me olvidan las cosas importantes, como la quiebra del sistema bancario, y agradezco que las recuerden

Sin duda. Por ejemplo ahora Sony va a tener que decidir para qué utiliza la próxima remesa de chips. ¿Se dedica a hacer PlayStations? ¿Televisiones? ¿Los prepara para telefonía? ¿Equipos médicos? No es un tema de capacidad de producción ni de presupuesto, es que te llega una cantidad limitada de materia prima y hay que priorizar.

Yo creo que habrá muchos productos que dejen de fabricarse porque su rentabilidad y su utilidad es marginal y ahora sea obvio que podemos vivir perfectamente sin ellos. No hablo de los gatos chinos esos que mueven la pata alante y atrás, hablo de cosas que tenemos totalmente integradas. Por ejemplo, ¿de verdad hacía falta gastarse miles (o millones) de euros en desarrollar y fabricar un detector de humedad para que el limpiaparabrisas de un coche se ponga en marcha solo?


Contestando a @PastorMesetario, el mercado de la electrónica se ha vuelto loco. Eso sí que ha sido una tormenta perfecta. Yo creo que lo peor ya ha pasado y que iremos progresivamente a mejor (con algún pequeño shock intermedio como he explicado arriba que se magnificará porque la gente entrará en pánico comprador a la mínima de cambio). En el caso de los portátiles tardará más en llegar porque hay que esperar a que se sincronicen varias olas de roturas de stock que están varios niveles por encima de la fabricación del producto final.

[Derby]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-market-no-longer-heating-up-new-redfin-report-shows-2021-08-13

Housing market 'no longer heating up,' new Redfin report shows

Home sellers suggest the housing market is "no longer heating up," as homes are staying on the market longer and the share of homes with a price drop rose for a fifteenth straight week, according to a new report from Redfin Corp. a real estate brokerage services company.

Home that sold were on the market for a median 17 days for the four-week period ending Aug. 8, that's down from 35 days a year ago, but up from a record low of 15 days in late June and July. The share of homes for sale that had price drops was 4.9%, up from 3.6% a year ago, and from 4.7% a week ago.

The median home-sale price was $362,642, up 17% from a year ago, but down $362.750 last week, while 53% of homes old above list price, up from 30% a year ago but down from 54% last week. The median asking price for newly listed homes was $355,389, up 11% from a year ago but down from $358,475 last week.

Redfin's report comes as the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF has gained 2.1% over the past three months, while the S&P 500 has advanced 8.5%.

[Derby]

https://themarketear.com/posts/cD500TPccP

Fastest doubling ever...

Raging bull...

[Derby]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/13/joe-biden-spending-plans-inflation-debt-fears-misplaced

The problem isn’t ‘inflation’. It’s that most Americans aren’t paid enough

The real worry is the gap between what the country produces and what average folks can afford to consume. Inequality is eating our economy

(...)In fact, the long-term problem is just the opposite of inflation. It’s insufficient demand.

Recall that 70% of the US economy depends on consumer spending. So if the economy is to function well, Americans need to spend enough money to buy most of the goods and services they’re capable of producing.

But incomes haven’t nearly kept pace with productivity. Over the past 40 years, most people’s wages have basically stagnated, while worker productivity has soared. Most economic gains have gone to the wealthy – who now own more of America than at any time since the 1920s.

Here’s the thing. The wealthy spend only a small percentage of their income – not enough to keep the economy churning. Lower-income people, on the other hand, spend almost everything they have – which is becoming very little. Most workers aren’t earning nearly enough to buy what the economy is capable of producing.

The result is a gap between potential output and potential consumption.

To fill that gap, the economy has depended on consumers going deeper and deeper into debt. Even in 2018, when the economy appeared strong, 40% of Americans had negative net incomes and were borrowing money to pay for basic household needs.

The Fed has had to nudge interest rates lower and lower to accommodate this buying. And the government has had to spend more and more to fill the remaining gap.

None of this is sustainable. At some point, widening inequality causes the economy to collapse.

We’ve seen this before.

Years ago, Marriner Eccles, chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1934 to 1948, explained that the Great Depression occurred because the buying power of most Americans fell far short of what the economy was producing.

He blamed the increasing concentration of wealth at the top:

“A giant suction pump had by 1929-1930 drawn into a few hands an increasing portion of currently produced wealth. As in a poker game where the chips were concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, the other fellows could stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit ran out, the game stopped.”

Sound familiar?

When the housing and financial debt bubbles burst in 2008, we avoided another Great Depression only because the government pumped enough money into the economy to maintain demand, and the Fed kept interest rates near zero. Then came the pandemic.

More than one year into the pandemic, America’s wealth gap is more extreme than it has been in more than a century. Until this structural problem is remedied, the American economy will remain perilously fragile.

Manchin and his ilk should stop worrying about inflation and debt. The real problem is America’s staggering wealth gap. Closing it will requires efforts even more dramatic than Joe Biden’s spending plans.

[Derby]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/pret-manger-tells-staff-temporary-24755036

Pret a Manger tells staff temporary pay cut due to Covid will now be permanent

The cafe chain announced it would stop paying workers for their breaks last September in a bid to cut costs. However, Pret has now confirmed that the decision has been made permanent

[Derby]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sudden-negative-change-economy-consumer-spending-slides-majority-now-expect-new-slowdown

"A Sudden Negative Change In The Economy": Consumer Spending Slides As Majority Now Expect A New Slowdown

Today's UMich Consumer Sentiment report was a painful eye-opener: as we noted earlier, following UMich's sentiment slump in July, analysts expected a further (modest) slide in Americans' confidence in preliminary August data this morning but they were very wrong as sentiment crashed in early August data according to UMich Sentiment survey with the headline plunging from 81.2 to 70.0 - that is weaker than the April 2020 COVID crisis lows, while expectations collapsed too.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Los nuevos ataques a los propietarios de vivienda que prepara el gobierno de Sánchez
Podría llegar a la expropiación de uso de viviendas en alquiler durante periodos de diez años.

Diego Sánchez de la Cruz | 2021-08-13

El gobierno de coalición entre PSOE y Podemos sigue negociando la nueva Ley de Vivienda, uno de los puntos centrales del acuerdo de legislatura suscrito por ambas formaciones. Por el flanco socialista, el último intento de acercar posturas pasa por alargar los contratos de alquiler hasta los diez años en aquellas zonas que sean declaradas como áreas de precios "tensionados".

Si ambas agrupaciones ya se pusieron de acuerdo para extender los plazos de referencia del alquiler hasta los cinco años, el nuevo planteamiento que hace el PSOE incluye la fijación de un nuevo periodo marco de ocho años, que afectaría al conjunto de los propietarios y que se podría extender dos años más cuando las Administraciones declaren que un área presenta precios "tensionados".

Las informaciones publicadas por Expansión apuntan que esta posibilidad fue concebida por el anterior ministro del ramo, José Luis Ábalos. Al parecer, la nueva titular de la cartera competente, Raquel Sánchez, considera que la propuesta de llevar los contratos de alquiler a ocho o diez años puede ser suficiente para contentar a la facción comunista del gobierno.

Bajo este supuesto, al alcanzarse el quinto de año de arrendamiento, el inquilino podría invocar una prórroga extraordinaria que le permitiría extender su contrato en los mismos términos y condiciones, solamente con la aplicación del IPC. Así, en una vivienda media, firmar un acuerdo de alquiler en 2022 equivaldría a dejar el precio cerrado para todo el periodo que va de 2022 a 2030, sin posibilidad de revisión o maniobra alguna por parte del propietario.

Existe, además, otra medida que también está en la mesa de la ministra Sánchez y que plantea que, en las zonas donde la Administración determine que los precios están "tensionados", se limitará la subida de precio del alquiler al 10% con respecto al último contrato celebrado. Una vuelta de tuerca más que, nuevamente, dejaría al propietario casi sin poder ni capacidad a la hora de explotar su propio activo inmobiliario.

Según explicó hace meses el portal inmobiliario Idealista, los socialistas no quieren introducir un control de precios de manera directa, puesto que son conscientes de la mala prensa que tiene este tipo de medidas. Sin embargo, el partido del puño y la rosa sí abre la puerta a las intervenciones indirectas de precio descritas en párrafos anteriores puesto que considera que, en la práctica, tienen un resultado similar al que ambicionan sus socios de Podemos, solo que sin el estigma de la regulación explícita del coste de los arriendos.

Por otro lado, aunque el anteproyecto de Ley que llegó a redactar el equipo de Ábalos contemplaba deducciones de hasta el 90% en el IRPF por los rendimientos del alquiler para aquellos propietarios que bajen la renta en zonas de precios declarados "tensionados", lo cierto es que no hay noticias de que el Ejecutivo tenga previsto explorar esta vía en las próximas semanas, consciente de que Podemos quiere asegurarse de que esta sea una de las leyes más duras de la legislatura, con la mirada puesta en el voto más izquierdista.

Aparte del "ladran, luego cabalgamos" de libro que representa el artículo (es curioso como este tipo de noticias aparecen en pleno agosto cuando la gente anda más desconectada), no me puedo resistir a extractar esta frase (que no he puesto en negrita en el artículo por ser una opinión del autor) que refleja perfectamente que la mayoría natural sigue sin entender cual es el problema:

Una vuelta de tuerca más que, nuevamente, dejaría al propietario casi sin poder ni capacidad a la hora de explotar su propio activo inmobiliario.

Saludos.

[Negrule]

Las casas son para estimular la actividad económica, no para vivir.

[Derby]

https://www.economiadigital.es/politica/la-pandemia-hunde-la-natalidad-en-espana-a-su-minimo-historico.html

La pandemia hunde la natalidad en España a su mínimo histórico desde 1941

El número de nacimientos en diciembre de 2020 se redujo hasta los 23.226 en España, la cifra más baja desde que se inició la serie estadística

La crisis sanitaria del coronavirus ha golpeado directamente a la natalidad. En diciembre de 2020, nueve meses después de que se iniciase el primer estado de alarma, apenas se contabilizó el nacimiento de 23.226 niños en España. Se trata del dato más bajo desde que se comenzó a cuantificar la natalidad en el año 1941, en plena posguerra.

La Covid-19 ha desencadenado que los nacimientos se hundieran en diciembre hasta un 20,4% con respecto al mismo periodo del año anterior, cuando la pandemia todavía no había alcanzado a España, de acuerdo a los datos publicados por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE).

Este fenómeno continuó repitiéndose en el mes siguiente. El enero de 2021 se produjeron tan solo 24.061 nacimientos en el país. Es un 20% menos que en el arranque del curso anterior, todavía en la vieja normalidad.



El coronavirus ha empeorado una demografía española que ya estaba marcada por el envejecimiento de la población. El descenso anual de los nacimientos ya se había hundido progresivamente en los últimos años, pero ha sido ahora cuando ha alcanzado sus mínimos históricos, con un bajón sin precedentes.

Al cierre del 2020 se produjeron en España un total de 338.00 nacimientos, en un año marcado por el avance de la pandemia. La cifra se había ido reduciendo paulatinamente, frente a los 358.000 de 2019, los 370.000 de 2018 o los 391.000 de 2017. La crisis sanitaria ha agudizado todavía más el problema de la natalidad.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.elconfidencialdigital.com/articulo/politica/vuelven-espana-hombres-negro-bruselas-controlar-reparto-fondos-europeos/20210812124439268342.html

Vuelven a España los ‘hombres de negro’ de Bruselas para controlar el reparto de los fondos europeos

Los altos funcionarios de la Unión Europea mantendrán contactos semanales con Moncloa, Hacienda y Economía, comprobarán los gastos y exigirán dos informes al año con los objetivos logrados

[newclo]

Buenos días

Encontrado en Reddit

Ray Dalio spent 18 months with world class experts researching the rise and fall of empires from a monetary supply perspective and how it applies to current conditions with the U.S., particularly the ability to print money to devalue debt - He made it free on his website. I just read it. Pretty impressive and insightful, especially pertinent to what's going on today.

​

https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/

[Derby]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/wall-street-is-the-most-bullish-on-stocks-in-almost-two-decades-1.1640147

Wall Street Is the Most Bullish on Stocks in Almost Two Decades



(Bloomberg) -- It’s been two decades since Wall Street analysts were this upbeat.

About 56% of all recommendations on S&P 500 firms are listed as buys, the most since 2002. It’s one more data point that shows the extent of the euphoria sweeping markets after a blockbuster earnings season.

While analysts are historically a bullish bunch, they’re turning even more optimistic in the face of relentless stock-market gains and corporate earnings that topped even the highest expectations. For all the concerns about the delta variant, China’s regulatory crackdown or waning Federal Reserve stimulus, it hasn’t made much of a dent yet on stock prices.

“It’s not just financial conditions and low rates fueling the appetite for risk assets -- tremendous fundamental improvement is forecast into 2022,” Todd Jablonski, chief investment officer at Principal Global Asset Allocation, said in a note.

U.S. companies aren’t the only ones feeling the love. In Europe, about 52% of recommendations on Stoxx 600 firms are buy or equivalent, a 10-year high. In Asia, that number jumps to 75%, the highest proportion since at least 2010.

The second-quarter earnings season was one of the strongest in history, even if helped by comparison with a period last year when many parts of the world were in the grip of pandemic lockdowns. U.S. profit growth of 90% was 17 percentage points better than expected, while a 71% rise in Europe surprised positively by 16 percentage points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

In both regions, results were stronger than implied by the acceleration in growth momentum during the period, JPMorgan strategists said in a note.

Price Targets

While some of that earnings optimism has been priced into markets, analysts see scope for more gains. Converting aggregated 12-month price targets for Stoxx 600 members implies about 9% upside for the index from current levels, while for the S&P 500 the implied gain is about 10% and for Asia 21%.

For Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at Etoro Ltd., the reopening trade “hasn’t even started yet.” For companies like restaurants, tour operators, airlines and hotels, earnings are still down 85% from where they were coming into this crisis, he said on Bloomberg TV, leaving clear scope for a rebound.

Luc Aben, chief economist at Kempen & Co., has a positive view on value equities. “These are over-represented in sectors that were greatly affected by the coronavirus pandemic,” he said in a note. “If the recovery persists, the style rotation could get going again.”

Yet such bullish sentiment doesn’t come without a hint of exuberance and it wouldn’t be the first time that investors were caught on the wrong foot.

“I’m a believer that the market moves in whatever direction hurts the most participants,” said Dave Lutz, head of ETFs at JonesTrading Annapolis. “If all the analysts on the Street are bullish, I’d be very cautious,” he said in a note.

Right now though, markets are in no mood for a correction. The last time the S&P 500 Index saw a peak to trough decline of 5% or more was 193 days ago, about twice the long-term average.

“There is a lot of dip-buying power on the sidelines and any correction that might be justified could also be short-lived,” Salm-Salm & Partner portfolio manager Frederik Hildner said by phone.

[Derby]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Property/China-cracks-down-on-property-speculation

https://www.newsuwc.com/2021/08/china-cracks-down-on-property-speculation/

China cracks down on property speculation

BEIJING — China is toughening regulations around condominium transactions with an aim to contain speculative and illegal deals within three years, amid growing social discontent about soaring property prices.

Among the measures that authorities are taking are the introduction of eligibility rules for property purchases and the intervention in the secondhand market in big cities to prevent price inflation.

The real estate market is flooded with liquidity as a result of monetary policy relaxation to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the government has adopted caps on mortgage loans, prices have continued to rise especially in major cities.

This is particularly evident in the market for secondhand condos where prices are dictated by the market. Prices in Tier-1 cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have jumped by an average of 10.5% in June from a year earlier. In 2019 before the outbreak of COVID-19, average annual price rises were under 2%.

There have also been speculative moves in provincial capital-level and lower-tier cities as well. On July 29, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development called in the leaders of Yinchuan in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Xuzhou in Jiangsu Province, and three other cities to tell them to reinforce measures against speculative trading as house prices had risen 10% or so in those cities.

The Chinese Communist Party has included the stability of property prices as part of its economic management policy for the second half of 2021, adopting the stance at its Politburo meeting end-July. The first inclusion of such an expression in the CCP’s economic management policy was taken to mean that authorities would not hesitate to directly intervene in house prices.

In fact, the municipal governments of Dongguan and Jinhua said on Aug. 2 that they had worked out reference prices for secondhand condos, urging property brokers not to offer them at prices much higher than theirs. At least seven cities, including Shenzhen, will also introduce similar measures.

Wuhan plans to set up a system under which those planning to buy condos will be required to register their interest with authorities. If they were judged to have met requirements, they would have 60 days in which to buy their property. Eligibility will be frozen when the purchased units are registered so that the buyers will be unable to purchase other condos.

This market intervention is reminiscent of the long-gone days when the planned economy was strictly enforced by the Communist Party, according to complaints on social media. The public has also pointed to the rationing of staple goods before China shifted to reform and market-liberalization policies.

China is making it more difficult for people to invest in condos to try to stem price rises.
 
Efforts are also underway to prevent attempts to circumvent purchase regulations, among them making the process of procuring mortgage loans complicated and difficult. To get around this, owners have been known to “donate” their properties so that they can get mortgage loans to buy what would then officially be classed as their first.

There also are cases in which sellers of housing units evade income tax by treating the deals as “donations,” according to real estate think tank E-House China R&D Institute.

But the Shanghai city office said in July that a condo, even if it were “donated,” would be treated as belonging to the original owner for five years. This is to stem the practice of “donations.”

Authorities are also cracking down on construction that has deviated from blueprints and the skimming of rents and commissions by property brokers.

The government has been motivated to act on worries about rising discontent among those priced out of the market. The National Congress, which is held every five years to pick new leadership for the country, will convene in the autumn of 2022. Political discontent could trigger power struggles and as such, the current leadership wants to nip any problems in the bud.

Yet, the price rises were seeded by President Xi Jinping’s government. Giving top priority to economic recovery from the pandemic, China began to quietly ease regulations on property transactions around spring 2020. The country’s economic recovery since is partly thanks to real estate development.

Some experts point out that the sector, including related businesses, accounts for 20% to 30% of China’s gross domestic product. It has enabled the central and local governments to adjust economic activity without tapping tax revenue. As such, the government has eased controls over the sector when the economy slows and toughened them when it is overheated.

In 2019, the Politburo had decided not to use the real estate market as a short-term means to simulate the economy, but that decision was reversed six months later as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

[Derby]

https://themarketear.com/posts/cQkrA9inh4

"Real" 10-Year Treasury yields fall below -4%

.....lowest level since 1980. Ok, we cannot really compare it like this, but still....

[Derby]

Hacía tiempo que no le echaba un vistazo a la página de dshort 

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/08/13/long-term-look-at-the-cpi





https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/08/13/s-p-500-snapshot-up-18-95-ytd