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Following on from the action of S&P yesterday rating's agency Fitch have downgraded Greek sovereign debt from 'CCC' to 'CC'. They cite the probability of an imminent default on the IMF and possibly ECB, as well as a breakdown in talks as their main drivers. Here's their statement:CitarThe breakdown of the negotiations between the Greek government and its creditors has significantly increased the risk that Greece will not be able to honour its debt obligations in the coming months, including bonds held by the private sector. We now view a default on government debt held by private creditors as probable. Recent events have taken us beyond our previous base case that a deal would be struck before the expiry of the programme.The government has called a referendum for 5 July on whether to accept the 25 June proposals of the creditor institutions regarding policy conditionality and is endorsing a 'No' vote to reject the deal. Although early polls suggest a 'Yes' vote is the more likely outcome, the risk of a 'No' vote is significant. In our view, a 'No' vote would dramatically increase the risk of a Greek exit from the eurozone. Such an exit would probably be disorderly as the current government is unlikely to co-operate with the European authorities in such an event.Although a 'Yes' vote may help to avoid some of the more extreme risks face by Greece, the credit situation would remain precarious. A 'Yes' could lead to the formation of a new government with a mandate to reach an agreement with creditors on policy conditionality. However, the composition of the Greek parliament (two-thirds of MPs belong to anti-austerity parties) and the short timeframe before Greece's EUR3.5bn Eurosystem redemption would make this a challenging prospect.
The breakdown of the negotiations between the Greek government and its creditors has significantly increased the risk that Greece will not be able to honour its debt obligations in the coming months, including bonds held by the private sector. We now view a default on government debt held by private creditors as probable. Recent events have taken us beyond our previous base case that a deal would be struck before the expiry of the programme.The government has called a referendum for 5 July on whether to accept the 25 June proposals of the creditor institutions regarding policy conditionality and is endorsing a 'No' vote to reject the deal. Although early polls suggest a 'Yes' vote is the more likely outcome, the risk of a 'No' vote is significant. In our view, a 'No' vote would dramatically increase the risk of a Greek exit from the eurozone. Such an exit would probably be disorderly as the current government is unlikely to co-operate with the European authorities in such an event.Although a 'Yes' vote may help to avoid some of the more extreme risks face by Greece, the credit situation would remain precarious. A 'Yes' could lead to the formation of a new government with a mandate to reach an agreement with creditors on policy conditionality. However, the composition of the Greek parliament (two-thirds of MPs belong to anti-austerity parties) and the short timeframe before Greece's EUR3.5bn Eurosystem redemption would make this a challenging prospect.
http://www.sudinfo.be/1322852/article/2015-06-30/comment-le-fmi-pourrait-in-extremis-eviter-un-defaut-de-paiement-a-la-greceEl FMI tiene legalmente capacidad para demorar un pago dentro del plazo previsto de 2 a 5 años si lo pide un Estado miembro: lo hizo en 1982 para Nicaragua y Guayana (Británica)Elplazo puede alargarse con el voto del 70 de su Consejo.
Breaking: Greece defaults to the IMF missing €1.55bn payment at 11pm deadlineThe deadline has come and gone. It passes with a whimper rather than a bang, but Greece has fallen into an arrears process with the IMF at 11.01pm tonight
"I confirm that the [Special Drawing Rights] SDR 1.2bn repayment (about €1.5bn) due by Greece to the IMF today has not been received. "We have informed our Executive Board that Greece is now in arrears and can only receive IMF financing once the arrears are cleared."I can also confirm that the IMF received a request today from the Greek authorities for an extension of Greece's repayment obligation that fell due today, which will go to the IMF's Executive Board in due course."
Es oficial.CitarBreaking: Greece defaults to the IMF missing €1.55bn payment at 11pm deadlineThe deadline has come and gone. It passes with a whimper rather than a bang, but Greece has fallen into an arrears process with the IMF at 11.01pm tonight
En realidad todavia no, ahora el FMI tiene que comprobar que no se ha hecho el pago y luego notificarlo a sus socios, que tendran que notificar el acuse de recivo. Ademas me imagino que tendran que notificarlo a grecia que tendra que certificar que no, que no ha pagado. Mas o menos un mes mas, y como agosto viene a no ser habil, pues habra que esperar hasta septiembre.Y es mas, no pagar al FMI no es hacer default y no se ejecutan los seguros contra impagos.
Ya ha caido Grecia, ahora habra que ir pensando en el siguiente pais. Portugal lo tiene muy jodido, por evolucion de gasto publico, demografia, envejecimiento de la poblacion y endeudamiento creciente. Luego estamos nosotros e Italia, sobre todo con el creciente gasto en pensiones, baja productividad y proceso de desindustrializacion.Hay una cifra que se ha ocultado estos dias pero ......Recaudacion por cotizaciones sociales:Enero-Mayo 2014 22.719 millones de eurosEnero-Mayo 2015 22.714 millones de euros
Citar"I confirm that the [Special Drawing Rights] SDR 1.2bn repayment (about €1.5bn) due by Greece to the IMF today has not been received. "We have informed our Executive Board that Greece is now in arrears and can only receive IMF financing once the arrears are cleared."I can also confirm that the IMF received a request today from the Greek authorities for an extension of Greece's repayment obligation that fell due today, which will go to the IMF's Executive Board in due course."
Entonces....el FMI ya sale de la mesa, queda fuera del juego hasta que Grecia pague los atrasos. Esto es incuestionable, es....¡Un FMIxit!(Se queda de comodín para cada parte.)