La unificación de Europa (Y que va a pasar con España)

[Маркс]

Yo creo que ésto hay que tomarlo con pinzas, pero ahí va:

El líder xenófobo Wilders propone que Holanda abandone la Unión Europea

• El político antimusulmán encabeza la intención de voto para las elecciones nacionales de 2017

http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/02/06/actualidad/1391700395_687075.html

Soy pro europeo, no de esta Europa usurera pero sí de su diseño inicial. Cuando veo este auge del fascismo en prácticamente todos los países no dejo de relacionarlo con periodos anteriores a la última GM como fue el repudio social a todos sus partidos políticos (izquierdas y derechas) contribuyentes y culpables de aquella austeridad.

Los aliados perdonaron la mitad de la deuda a Alemania tras la II GM. La Alemania actual debería planteárselo para con su Europa periférica. Lo que está claro es que de seguir por este camino más de un país acabará con un golpe de estado (Chomsky dixit), y no será un militarón al uso o GC con tricornio, pero sí un ornitorrinco de lomo plateado al que no deberá plantearse siquiera excusas formales para crujir cualquier tratado constitucional.

Y se liará.

[wanderer]

[...]
The prime minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, has warned Europe risks descending into a conflict similar to the First World War as a result of the eurozone crisis.
[...]
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Claude_Juncker

El colonialismo en busca de recursos, aunque no sea por un nuevo auge industrial sino por la escasez de estos, la ambición de las potencias que emergen y las que se niegan a dejar de serlo, auge de los nacionalismos, las cuentas pendientes... Quizás Juncker tiene razón y los paralelismos son con la I.

La paz es la ausencia de guerra.

Tiene tela éso que traes, y sobre todo por de quién lo traes. Creo que debo actualizar mis conocimientos de Historia y tratar de entender cómo se gestó realmente la IGM, sobre todo ahora que están saliendo tantos libros para analizarla y recordarla.

Me cuesta creer que podamos llegar a lo que cantó Owen:

The Parable of the Old Man and the Young

So Abram rose, and clave the wood, and went,
And took the fire with him, and a knife.
And as they sojourned both of them together,
Isaac the first-born spake and said, My Father,
Behold the preparations, fire and iron,
But where the lamb for this burnt-offering?
Then Abram bound the youth with belts and strops,
And builded parapets and trenches there,
And stretched forth the knife to slay his son.
When lo! an angel called him out of heaven,
Saying, Lay not thy hand upon the lad,
Neither do anything to him. Behold,
A ram, caught in a thicket by its horns;
Offer the Ram of Pride instead of him.

But the old man would not so, but slew his son,
And half the seed of Europe, one by one.

Wilfred Owen

(Con un recuerdo especial para Currobena).

[dmar]

[...]
The prime minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, has warned Europe risks descending into a conflict similar to the First World War as a result of the eurozone crisis.
[...]
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Claude_Juncker

El colonialismo en busca de recursos, aunque no sea por un nuevo auge industrial sino por la escasez de estos, la ambición de las potencias que emergen y las que se niegan a dejar de serlo, auge de los nacionalismos, las cuentas pendientes... Quizás Juncker tiene razón y los paralelismos son con la I.

La paz es la ausencia de guerra.

Tiene tela éso que traes, y sobre todo por de quién lo traes. Creo que debo actualizar mis conocimientos de Historia y tratar de entender cómo se gestó realmente la IGM, sobre todo ahora que están saliendo tantos libros para analizarla y recordarla.

Wanderer, no parece que haya una conclusión definitiva sobre el porqué de la IGM.  Más bién hubo un conjunto de circunstancias: alianzas, nacionalismos, falta de mano izquierda de varios gobiernos...

Lo que sí hay que señalar es que no es verdad que la guerra fuera inesperada, puesto que todos los estados tenían planes y alianzas y pensaban que la guerra era inevitable y era vital atacar primero; había una corriente de opinión que decía que la guerra era imposible por los fuertes lazos económicos (que ahora son mucho mayores que entonces), pero creo que está claro que los que tomaban las decisiones no se fiaban (al periodo se le llama Paz Armada por algo).
Lo que sí resultó sorprendente fué la rapidez con la que todo se desató en el verano del 14 (las declaraciones de guerra se suceden en una semana).

Este es un tema que me obsesiona y apasiona desde hace tiempo, creo que viene estando cada vez más presente en el debate público según los emergentes... emergen y Europa se da cuenta del dominio perdido (ver Niall Ferguson).  Y ahora con la efeméride parece haber eclosinado.

Hace poco leí este artículo:

http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/rhyme-and-reason-why-2014-doesnt-have-to-be-1914/

incitando a la precaución en cuanto a los pararelismos posibles entre hoy y hace cien años.  Trata más sobre la situación en Asia, donde EMHO es más probable un conflicto armado convencional.

En Europa no acabo de verlo, la verdad, puesto que Alemania ha cumplido sus metas de 1914 por medios pacíficos y ni US ni UK ni RU van a venir a apoyar con tanques y hombres a una hipotética disidencia dentro de Europa como hicieron en 1914, y tampoco hay alianzas que valgan dentro de europa.  Y de carrera de armamentos nada de nada.  Sólo hay una batalla intelectual/informacional soterrada entre Europeismo vs. Atlantismo. 

[españavabien]

Francia cada vez más atlantista:

internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/02/11/actualidad/1392146763_673634.html

Ya pasó con Miterrand. El PS es más atlantista que la UMP (o le que queda de la UMP, tras el ascenso del FN).

Una periodista pregunta hasta si Francia ha sustituido a UK como mejor amigo de USA en Europa y Obama contesta "que no puede decir cuál de sus hijos es el favorito". 

Creo que si Francia sigue perdiendo peso en Europa, la tendencia se irá acrecentando, en una dinámica que puede ser peligrosa. Es lo que ya sucedió con UK: si no puedo competir en influencia con Alemania, me retiro del tablero y me dedico a cultivar mis relaciones fuera de Europa.

Eso se suma a la visita de Rajoy a un mitin de Erdogán y a su petición de entrada de Turquía en la UE, lo que dejaría a la UE en una especie de "club de fans" de los USA a este lado del mundo sin posibilidad real de integración.

Es lo que pasa por no tener una política exterior común. Por un lado, África y Oriente Medio es una preocupación exclusiva de Francia, mientras que Europa del Este lo es solo de germanos y europeos orientales.

Hace poco estuve viendo la exposición de bancos austriacos en Europa del Este y es brutal. No sé si será igual en el caso alemán, pero es normal que Siria les dé exactamente igual porque se están jugando bastante en el "Frente oriental".

Lo que es cierto es que es una dinámica preocupante de dispersión que no hace ningún bien a la UE.

PS: Yo sigo con mi teoría que si nace un "europeismo político" de verdad, lo hará en el centro-derecha o derecha. Si tan solo los gaullistas y sus herederos lograran superar su complejo de inferioridad frente a Alemania y asimilaran de una vez por todas que para ser independientes de la gran potencia americana necesitan a los alemanes, ya ganaríamos mucho. Pero de la izquierda europea no me fío ni un pelo.

[Currobena]

Un análisis económico financiero sobre la viabilidad económica de la independencia de Escocia. Seguro que lo conocen en los sitios donde se toman las decisiones:

  SNP Independent Scotland Sterling Sharing Trojan Horse to Plunder British Pound Politics / UK Politics Feb 14, 2014 - 01:52 AM GMT By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK politicians of all three major parties surprised everyone  by unequivocally rejecting the SNP's cunning plan to effectively permanently park a Trojan Horse outside the Bank of England on Scottish Independence day that would effectively allow Scotland to go on an spending binge on a sterling credit card by printing debt without the consequences of currency panic that normally would result in very high if not hyperinflation, but instead like a cancer seek to consume its English host over a number of years as the policy of sterling sharing sucks the financial life blood out of the British Pound.
 
 
Whilst the UK can be divided, the currency cannot. A foreign country cannot have any say in monetary policy of the UK, nor would ever be allowed to print sterling debt.
George Osbourne's (Conservative) "I could not as Chancellor recommend that we could share the pound with an Independent Scotland, it wouldn't work, it would cost jobs, and cost money, and it wouldn't provide economic security for Scotland or the rest of the United Kingdom, I don't think any other Chancellor would come to a different view"
Edd Balls  (Labour) "Scotland cannot keep the pound and the Bank of England if it chooses independence. It would be bad for Scotland, it would place an unacceptable burden on the UK tax payer, it would repeat the mistakes of the Euro area, in fact worse, you would be trying to negotiate a monetary union as Scotland is pulling away from the UK."
Danny Alexander (Lib Dems) "It is clear to me that a currency union wouldn't work for Scotland if it was Independent, and wouldn't work with the rest of europe".
Sir Nicholas Mcpherson (UK Treasury) " And so to sum up, I would advise you against entering into a currency union with an Independent Scotland. There is no evidence that adequate proposals or policy changes to enable the formation of a currency union could be devised, agreed and implemented by both governments in the foreseeable future".
The response of the SNP's professional politicians was to put up a barrage of smoke and mirrors as they remain fanatically obsessed with gaining total power over the Scottish people at ANY COST.
Alex Salmond responded - "This is a concerted bid by a Tory-led Westminster establishment to bully and intimidate - but their efforts to claim ownership of sterling will backfire   spectacularly in terms of reaction from the people of Scotland, who know that   the pound is as much theirs as it is George Osborne's".
Meanwhile the Yes Scotland campaign website in a state of denial continues to state that the UK will share the British Pound with an Independent Scotland.
Q. What currency will an independent Scotland have?
A: The Scottish Government has decided that an independent Scotland will continue to use the pound and enter into a formal currency agreement with the government of the United Kingdom – as explained in this article.
In adopting this policy, the Scottish Government has accepted the recommendations of a group of independent and internationally renowned economists (who sit on the Fiscal Commission) that a formal currency union is the best way ahead.
This would provide the right balance of autonomy for government and stability for business, as well as straightforward access to markets in the remainder of the UK.
It is beyond any reasonable doubt that a formal currency agreement will be in the interests of both an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK (rUK).
 
Even Mark Carney, the Bank of England Governor had earlier chimed in in a subdued tone, though expect a far tougher tone following Independence -
"The existing banking union between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom has proved durable and efficient.
"Its foundations include a single prudential supervisor maintaining consistent standards of resilience, a single deposit guarantee scheme backed by the central government, and a common central bank, able to act as lender of last resort across the union, and also backed by the central government.
"These arrangements help ensure that Scotland can sustain a banking system whose collective balance sheet is substantially larger than its GDP.
"The euro area has shown the dangers of not having such arrangements, as well as the difficulties of the necessary pooling of sovereignty to build them.
"An independent Scotland would need to consider carefully how to develop arrangements with the continuing United Kingdom that are both consistent with its sovereignty and sufficient to maintain financial stability."
 
Today's statements resulted in sterling spiking to a new multi-year high of £/$1.67 on relief that the ominous cloud hanging over the currency of the implications of Scottish independence fracturing sterling, ultimately resulting in a catastrophic loss of confidence just as is taking place right now in Argentina, which has seen its fiat monopoly currency collapse, resulting in capital controls and real inflation soaring to more than 50% per annum!

Independant Scotland Disaster Zone
The SNP argument that an Independent Scotland would not have gone bankrupt like Iceland, Greece, Ireland or even Cyprus , in a way is correct as an Independent Scotland would not have gone bankrupt like any of those countries who in-effect in large part have been controlled from Germany for the past 4 years, rather that an Independent Scotland would have been in FAR WORSE SHAPE as a consequence of having a banking system that was near twice the size of the likes of Greece in terms of % of GDP.
Therefore an Independent Scotland would NOT have survived! An Independent Scotland in the euro-zone would be controlled by Germany. Whilst an Independent Scotland outside of the euro-zone would have collapsed in spectacular style worse even than Iceland where bank savings and the economy were all but wiped out.
 Alex Salmond realises that most of the people of Scotland understand this fundamental truth which is why the SNP are trying to put up a dense fog of smoke and mirrors to imply that Scotland could retain the British Pound whilst gaining independence. The best word to describe this is delusional, the SNP expects Scotland to have more monetary power than it has today whilst having NO representation in Westminister and thus NO influence over Bank of England and UK government monetary policy.
The people of Scotland are being hood winked by the likes of Alex Salmond into a delusion that suggests that Scotland would literally be able to PRINT sterling to death by means of debt as a consequence of rampant out of control socialist SNP government spending that the delusion suggests the burden of which would continue to be born by the rest of the UK, the effect of which would be for the ratcheting higher of UK inflation all the way towards a Fiat currency panic event when the general population would lose faith in holding currency resulting in an hyperinflationary collapse.
For some reason the SNP imagines that England would commit financial suicide, for that is what is implied by the SNP's cunning plan.
Scottish Independence Impact on the UK Economy
An Independent Scotland would be a twin edged sword because on the one hand the UK would no longer be burdened by having to to bribe the Scots with ever larger amounts of   net subsidy, where the annual block grant currently stands at £30 billion per year that helps bridge the gap between socialist government deficit spending and tax revenues. Against the loss of North Sea oil revenues that currently generate about £7 billion in tax revenue per year and therefore a net subsidy (bribe) to Scotland to stay in the Union of £23 billion per year, though in reality most of this gap would be filled by income and other taxes. But it would still mean Scotland would be a net £8 billion a year worse off than being within the Union.
Whilst it is true that 90% of North Sea oil revenues are gained come from Scottish waters, however North Sea oil peaked in 1999, since which daily   output has fallen by 2/3rds and there is no sign that the trend in falling output is going to end any time soon as new oil fields are unable to make up for   the declining output from existing fields.

The revenue   to the UK government from North Sea oil has now fallen to £7 billion, of which £6   billions is attributable to Scottish oil fields set against the block grant   Scotland receives of £30 billion from the central government of which £8 billion is   the value of the net subsidy after all tax revenues are taken into account.
There are also huge hidden costs to the oil industry that are not being   factored in, and that is for the decommissioning of old oil rigs, where in an   age of environmental awareness dumping of the oil platforms in deep waters is   no longer an option, therefore just as the costs of decommissioning nuclear   power plants was never factored into their building similarly the costs of   decommissioning oil platforms could result in a sharp drop off in revenues as   the costs of which would ultimately be born by the Scottish Government either in   less revenue or direct costs of decommissioning.
Therefore the rest of the UK would be a net £8 billion per year better off if Scotland left the Union.
Scottish Budget Deficit
The Scottish economy runs at a huge deficit that is only maintainable due to   being heavily subsidised by England. The country's total income for 2011-12 was £47.2 billion against expenditure of £58 billion, therefore a net deficit of   more than £10 billion (Source: Scotland.gov.uk), therefore taking into account extra oil revenue of £6 billion this puts an Independent Scotland short by an additional near 5 billion per year, but this is BEFORE Scotland's share of the national debt of £115 billion and resulting annual interest payments of at least £4 billion are taken into account as well as its banks   liabilities.
 Debt and   Bankrupt Bank Liabilities What the Scottish Nationalists conveniently tend to forget is the debt burden   that would be transferred over to Scotland as a proportion of the population,   i.e. approx 8.5% of the current £1.35 trillion of public debt of approx £115 billion,   which would demand interest costs of at least £4 billion per year.
Also the financial crisis has resulted in predominately scottish banks in the   forms of RBS and HBOS, resulting in liabilities of more than £1 trillion, that   and transference of 8.5% of public debt would greatly improve the remaining   United Kingdoms balance sheet as the costs of bank capital injections and   interest payments far exceeds the revenues of North Sea Oil and if the Scottish   subsidy is taken into account there is a large net cost to maintaining the   Union.
Therefore the net benefit to England from an independent Scotland would be   estimated to be far more than the revenues lost from North Sea Oil, an estimated   net annual saving of at least £20 billion per year with the added bonus of eventually having transferred liability for bankrupt Scottish banks permanently away from UK tax payers.
For many years the SNP have argued that an Independent Scotland could be just   as prosperous as Ireland or Iceland, which is true, an Independent Scotland   would instantly become another Iceland as debt liabilities levels would be   approximately10X GDP, so that much of the revenues from North Sea Oil revenues would need   to be utilised to service this debt, none of which is heard in SNP   Independence propaganda.
Furthermore, whenever Alex Salmond is faced with the debt realities of sharing 8.5% burden of the UK's national debt, he can be seen to revert to the mantra of "no liabilities without share of UK assets" such as an Independent Scotland having a 8.5% stake of the Bank of England, and perhaps Buckingham Palace too, what about 8.5% of the whole of London ?
In which respect the UK would expect to gain a 90% of Scotland in return! 91.5% of North Sea Oil!
Alex Salmond's comments imply that an Independent Scotland would not honour its approx £115 billion share of the UK national debt. However what Alex Salmond has failed to realise is the price that the UK would exact on an Independent Scotland to counter this, such as that a newly Independent Scotland may find that instead of gaining 90% of North Sea Oil it instead ends up with as little as 10% of North Sea Oil. That is what happens when divorces get messy.
The truth is that it would be financially impossible for Scotland to function as an Independent state without taking on its fair share of UK national debt as agreed with the UK.
In conclusion, the rest of the UK has nothing to   fear from an Independent Scotland, far from it, the more one delves into the financial and economic consequences of Scottish Independence the more appealing are the prospects for the rest of the UK. So perhaps rather than Scotland gaining its Independence, it could be seen as England that will be gaining   its Independence as England would exert itself far more politically and economically and thus drift further away from socialism towards free market capitalism.
Scotland Referendum Forecast
Whilst the polls may put the outcome of the next referendum as too close to call  as illustrated by head lines such as
The Scotsman - 1st Feb 2014 - Scottish independence: Vote is too close to call
However, what the polls lack is foreknowledge of the probable outcome of the next UK generation election which my extensive UK housing market analysis implies that it is highly probable that the Conservatives will win the next general election as excerpted below:
30 Dec 2013 - UK House   Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, Inflation, Trend Trajectory and General Election   2015
In conclusion a May 2015 general election at an average house price inflation   rate of 8.5% would result in a Conservative overall majority of at least   30 seats. Therefore this is my minimum expectation as I expect UK house   prices to start to average 10% per annum from early 2014 with my actual forecast   converging towards average UK house prices breaking to a new all time high just   prior to the May 2015 general election which would be a significant boost for   housing market sentiment and thus the Conservative's election prospects.

In terms of the Scottish referendum which is scheduled for September 18th is that by that time the probability of a Conservative outright election victory will becoming increasingly recognised by mainstream media as being the most probable outcome of the next UK general election.
Which given with the fact that Scotland does not have a Conservative bone in its collective body means this will play right into the hands of the SNP and thus prompt many more Scottish people to vote with their hearts rather than their heads and despite all of the negative economic ramifications of such a decision, choose to like lemmings vote to leap over the cliff into Independence.
Therefore whilst the referendum is still along way,away at this point in time it does seem highly probable that the Scottish people will make the mistake of voting for Scottish Independence on 18th September 2014, a decision that they may seek to reverse at a later date when the whole exercise starts to unravel as the reality of no longer being subsidised by England starts to bite and result in deep cuts in public services, or soaring inflation rates, let alone the fact that the SNP has NO PLAN B for what currency an Independent Scotland would actually use. A 2014 YES vote may result in a 2019 NO return to the Union.
Scottish Independence Implications for England
Whilst Scots have been most vocal in expressing the fact that the Scottish identity has been suppressed as a consequence of being  part of the United Kingdom. However, the same could be said for not only Wales and Northern Ireland but also England that despite comprising 85% of the population has endured far greater suppression of national identity which following Scottish Independence will encourage many English politicians to far freer to express the cause for English Independent and therefore loosen the ties of the remaining United Kingdom.
In terms of Westminister politics, Labour will effectively have permanently lost 50 of its most socialist MP's that will be a huge advantage to the Conservatives that would for many decades become the natural party of power which means that Labour will once more have to reinvent itself by sliding further to the right.
Whilst a smaller UK's international presence will be significantly diminished. On the other hand this will make a more inwardly looking UK far less likely to engage in costly illegal wars such as Iraq.
A UK Referendum on Scottish Independence
Following a Scottish Independence Yes vote, a UK referendum should also be held to lay down the law on what our usually spineless politicians can and cannot negotiate away with an Independent Scotland, as at the top of the list of red lines would be that for sharing sovereignty over the British Pound and Bank of England would as being off the table. Which would blow away the SNP's smoke and mirrors, and reveal the truth of the deep hole that the SNP had plunged Scotland into, an Independent Scotland with less power and stability over its monetary affairs than it has today.
An Independent Scotland could if it chooses to continue to use the British Pound, much as Argentineans use the U.S. Dollar, but without any monetary influence over the UK, just as Argentina has no influence over U.S. monetary policy.
British Pound Trend Forecast 2014
GBP's trend of the past 6 months has confounded the bears as sterling continues to grind its way higher as it LEADS ever stronger economic data that continues to surprise academic economists as they scramble following virtually every economic data release to revise their growth expectations ever higher that I have covered in-depth in my new UK Housing Market Ebook (FREE DOWNLOAD later this month) and as excerpted below:
30 Dec 2013 - UK House   Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, The Debt Fuelled Election Boom
Therefore in terms of my economic growth conclusion, I expect the UK   economy to at least attain a growth rate of 3.6% for 2014 and target 3.8% for Q1   2015 with a strong possibility of achieving the holy grail for election   victories of announcing during the election campaign of 2015 that the UK economy   at that time was growing at 4% per annum. Furthermore post election I expect that an over heating UK economy to slow as it dips back towards 3% over   subsequent quarters of 2015.

A quick look at the long-term GBP chart clearly shows a market that is breaking out of a multi-year trading range of between GBP 1.63 and 1.49. Therefore despite the Scottish Independence vote looking set to introduce much volatility during 2014, the over riding strength is such that GBP breaking above £/$1.80 before the end of 2014 appears highly probable.

Therefore sterling traders and investors need to immunise themselves against the bearish rhetoric that they will be subject to during 2014 in the run up to the Scottish Referendum, its aftermath and then the frenzy surrounding the General Election, all of which will be taken as cues for a weaker sterling when instead the reality will be one of sterling grinding its way ever higher to at least £/$ 1.80 this year as it continues to discount a strong UK economy and and outright Conservative election victory in May 2015 as illustrated below -
Elliott Wave International have made available its own extensive daily forex forecasts to our readers for free for a limited time covering 11 currency pairs Learn more and get free, instant access to EWI's FOREX analysis and forecasts now >>
In terms of the British Pound forecast for the Scottish Referendum, it implies that -
1. A Scots No vote will dissipate Independence / UK breakup uncertainty for several decades.
2. A Scots Yes vote will result in an Independent Scotland having far LESS influence over Sterling than Scotland has today.
Both of these outcomes will tend to reinforce Sterling in terms of discounting a long-term trend for a more robust sterling economy.
The bottom line is this - An Independent Scotland will be to England what Greece is to Germany. That is the reality of what a YES vote will deliver for Scotland.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article44424.html

[tomasjos]

Bueno, a punto de acabar los juegos de Sochi, y vuelve a empezar el show ucraniano, cosa que era de imaginar. Por de pronto, los pro-occidentales han atacado una base militar y tomado otra en Lvov, capital de la Ucrania Occidental, hiriendo a decenas de soldados. Esto es fase de preguerra civil. El este y el sur declaran su oposición y se están formando comités por la unión de Ucrania a Rusia en esas regiones. Mientras, Kerry manipula la realidad hablando de una mayoría aplastante de ucranianos luchando por la democracia y tal y eso....



http://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/view/120203-ucrania-activistas-protestas

Y mientras en Venezuela, otra revolución de colores pro-usana -independientemente de lo mal/bien que les caiga el gobierno de Venezuela, que a mi el socialismo al estilo bolivariano no me va nada de nada-.

[dmar]

Y mientras en Venezuela, otra revolución de colores pro-usana -independientemente de lo mal/bien que les caiga el gobierno de Venezuela, que a mi el socialismo al estilo bolivariano no me va nada de nada-.

A mí lo de Venezuela lo único que me dice es que, cuando las cosas exploten por aquí, será igual: situación violenta con dos malos y sin buenos.

[Sidartah]

Kiev, las mujeres ayudan a los combatientes de Maidán llevándoles comida y preparando la munición.



As usual, las mujeres de la zona le dan 1000 vueltas a las visilleras locales 

[tomasjos]

La policía de Lustk se ha pasado a los rebeldes, mientras el gobierno mueve la vigesimoquinta aerotransportada  - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/25_Airborne_Brigade_(Ukraine)  -desde el este hacia Kiev. Recordemos que el ejército ucraniano es de conscriptos, pero no se si los reclutas van a unidades en sus mismas regiones -modelo alemán tradicional-, o bien se organiza según un sistema centralizado en el cual los reclutas del este pueden acabar en unidades del oeste y viceversa. En el primer caso el gobierno estaría llevando tropas leales a la capital.

Se habla ya de golpe de estado en Ucrania.

Un mapa para localizar las ciudades y zonas bajo control rebelde



Edito: nota de prensa del Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores ruso

http://spanish.ruvr.ru/news/2014_02_19/Oposicion-ucraniana-insta-a-Rusia-a-detener-el-derramamiento-de-sangre-3345/

[Sidartah]

Os traigo info fresca de hoy:

En muchos cajeros y bancos hay colas porque la gente NO PUEDE SACAR PASTA. Esto ha empezado hoy.

El cambio hace dos semanas era 8.2 hryvnias - 1$
Hoy es de 8.9 - 1$
 Os transcribo parte de skype conversation:

our national bank made resolution
about international payment
that money from our account are taken away
and not earlier then in 6 working days they would be sent to consignee from the national bank
but 30 days arу also not earlier then 6 working days)))
and there is no max border of money keeping
also we send money in hrivna, national bank exchange it and send in euro for example to consignee
so we send money today, when rate is 8,9 to 1 dollar
but bank use range 10.2
because they predict this rate in a week, when money would be sent to consignee
unreal mess
unreal....

Así, si los bancos saben que en 6 días su divisa local valdrá bastante menos, deciden cerrar el grifo para no regalar dinero y por la incertidumbre.

No tengo tiempo para pensarlo ni analizarlo, etoy en el curro. Y para que veáis que esto tiene base, aquí os traigo un link fresco, en ruso e inglés. A ver si me lo desgranáis que hoy voy de culo:

National Bank of Ukraine introduced restrictions on FOREX transactions

On 6 February 2014 the NBU adopted resolution No. 49 “On Measures related to Activities of Banks and on FOREX transactions” (Resolution No. 49), which introduced a number of restrictions on the purchase of foreign currency, e.g.:

Limitation of execution of client orders – banks are required to execute orders of corporate clients and/or private entrepreneurs for the transfer of funds in any currency only within the limits of the remaining account balance as of the beginning of the relevant operating day (the limit does not include funds that are to be credited to the account within that operating day)
Temporary limitation for the purchase of foreign currency on the Ukrainian interbank foreign exchange market – a temporary restriction has been imposed on the purchase of foreign currency for UAH on the Ukrainian interbank foreign exchange market. The restriction applies to:
early repayment of loans (including financial assistance) in foreign currency under the agreements with non-residents, including in cases when relevant supplemental agreements providing for an early termination are executed;
coverage of the portion of the insurance reserve by insurance companies;
for making investments by residents abroad.
Certain restrictions on terms for the purchase of foreign currency by banks – upon receipt of the order to purchase foreign currency from companies or private entrepreneurs, banks shall be obliged to credit funds in UAH in advance on a separate analytical account. From this account, funds can be transferred for the purchase of foreign currency not earlier than on the sixth business day after the funds were credited on this account.
Resolution No. 49 is a temporary measure. Resolution No. 49 is effective 7 February 2014 and will be in force till the NBU adopts relevant resolution.

Measures related to banking activities and currency transactions

Resolution No. 49 of the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine dated
6 February 2014 (the “Resolution”)

The Resolution places a number of restrictions on foreign exchange transactions. In particular, the Resolution imposes a temporary ban on purchases of foreign currency for the purpose of early repayment by residents of credits and loans in foreign currency under agreements with non-residents; for formation of actuarial reserves made by insurers; for making foreign investments by residents. Accordingly, payments under such transactions must be made from the payer’s own foreign currency funds (remaining on accounts after the mandatory exchange of a portion of foreign currency proceeds).

Furthermore, banks are obliged to fulfill orders of clients (legal entities and individual entrepreneurs) contained in the payment document in any currency only to the extent of the funds on the client’s current accounts as of the beginning of the transaction day. Based on the wording of this rule, overdraft payments will become unavailable.

Banks may buy foreign currency by order of resident and non-resident individuals with a view to transfer abroad under current non-commercial foreign currency transactions only in amounts not exceeding the equivalent of UAH 50,000 (fifty thousand hryvnias) per month per individual. This restriction does not apply to the payment of costs related to education, medical treatment, transport costs, burial costs among others.

In order to purchase foreign currency by order of legal entities and individual entrepreneurs, banks are obliged to credit the funds in hryvnias to a separate account from which these funds may be transferred for purchasing foreign currency not earlier than on the sixth business day after the hryvnias have been credited to that account.
The Resolution takes legal effect as of 7 February 2014 and shall be valid until the National Bank of Ukraine passes a separate decision.

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http://www.usubc.org/site/recent-news/national-bank-of-ukraine-nbu-restrictions-on-currency-banks

edit:
https://www.puentenet.com/cotizaciones/cotizacionDivisas!getHistoricoDivisa.action?id=DIVISA_UAH

[dmar]

Para completar la referencia, repesco el mapa de las elecciones de 2004, donde se ve que la división es más bién NO/SE que O/S.  Kiev caería en el campo prooccidental y la costa del Mar Negro hasta Moldavia sería de los prorrusos.

[tomasjos]

Siguiendo con la información que ofrece RT, Yakunovich ha destituido al jefe del Estado Mayor de las Fuerzas Armadas, coronel general Volodimir Zamana, por el almirante IIlyn. Por otro lado Rusia suspende la transferencia del segundo tramo del préstamo ucraniano por "razones técnicas". Ni idea de que fue antes, lo primero o lo segundo. ¿Alguien sabe de que cuerda son ese coronel general y ese almirante? Sidartah, usted que tiene contactos en Ucrania, ¿podría conseguirnos algo de información al respecto?

[cerex]

Varios conocidos han publicado este vídeo en facebook y me da bastante mala espina. No sé si es por lo bien hecho que está, la coletilla de la Unión Soviética o por qué, pero no me acaba de gustar un pelo.

http://thoughtcatalog.com/danielle-ryan/2014/02/i-am-a-ukrainian-this-needs-to-go-viral/

[Currobena]

Una de las grandes ciudades de Ucrania occidental (Lviv) declara unilateralmente su autonomía (¿alguien recuerda Libia?) y su apoyo a la oposición. La diferencia es que aquí está Rusia detrás. Y Yakunovich no es mejor que Gaddafi.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-18/ukraine-fighting-leaves-at-least-18-dead-as-kiev-barricades-burn.html

[Sidartah]

Desde Moscú me comenta un periodista que en Kiev hoy se ha visto a Vladislav Surkov, tipo muy influyente del gabinete de Putin e intermediario de primer orden entre ambos países.

Además de haber estado hoy cerrado el metro de Kiev todo el día, trenes regionales se han cancelado por amenazas de bomba. 

No le habéis dado bola a lo de los bancos, pero me lo han confirmado varias personas de varias ciudades.