PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2019

[Yupi_Punto]

En efecto, en 2019, la autoridad fiscal [Pato cojo Donald (reelegible)] se salió con la suya. Había dos escenarios: o dejar que madurara el 'crash' desatado en febrero y diciembre de 2018  o coaccionar a la autoridad fiscal [¿Pato cojo Donald de nuevo?; será a la FED ¿no?, a la autoridad monetaria] para que le ayudara a estirar la orgía bursátil e inmobiliaria, a sabiendas de que después sería peor, soñando con que ese después fuera tras la reelección en noviembre de 2020.

Traigo esta errata porque según la teoría psicoanalítica de los lapsus, puede pasar desapercibida, funcionando como indeseable propaganda subliminal del 'bancocentralculpismo' de Pato cojo Donald según su parte de tuit habitual: la FED tiene la culpa y SúperDonald no quería (bajar Bolsa ni Inmuebles). 
 
Saludos.

No había visto que ya la has señalado

[Derby]

Entiendo que el cierre comercial chino no es provocado por usa sino por la propia china, como fulgurante y demostrador de capacidad de ahogo del comercio mundial sin sufrir consecuencias indeseadas entre su propia población. Es una demostración de fuerza China, no una jugada de presión Americana.

Sds.

Exacto, sí. Lo que se plantea como un movimiento de desglobalización no es más que la confirmación de lo avanzada que está la globalización y que no hay marcha atrás... habrá que encontrar la manera de "entenderse".

https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/worldtoday/coronavirus-supply-chain-disruptions/12002002

Coronavirus: Supply chain disruptions ripple through manufacturing, tech firms

https://fortune.com/2020/02/21/fortune-1000-coronavirus-china-supply-chain-impact/

94% of the Fortune 1000 are seeing coronavirus supply chain disruptions: Report

https://www.retail-week.com/fashion/primark-finance-boss-bullish-on-coronavirus-supply-chain-issues/7034204.article?authent=1

Primark finance boss bullish on coronavirus supply chain issues

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-toyota/toyota-says-japan-plants-may-be-affected-by-virus-related-supply-issues-idUSKCN20K19K?il=0

Toyota says Japan plants may be affected by virus-related supply issues
Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) on Wednesday said that operations at its plants in Japan may be affected by supply chain issues linked to the new coronavirus outbreak in the coming weeks, as the global outbreak gathers pace.

The automaker, which operates 16 vehicle and components sites in Japan, said that it would decide on how to continue operations at its domestic plants from the week of March 9, after keeping output normal through the week of March 2.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2020-02-26/this-is-what-the-coronavirus-means-for-the-chinese-supply-chain?srnd=markets-vp

This Is What The Coronavirus Means For The Chinese Supply Chain

Apple's recent revenue warning reminded the world of how exposed the company is to China, and in particular its factories. As the coronavirus continues to shutter huge swaths of the Chinese economy, this is a potential risk for numerous companies beyond just Apple. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Dan Wang, a China tech industry analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics about how this, along with pressure on Huawei, are putting extraordinary pressure on the Chinese supply chain.

[PastorMesetario]

Además de que se han podido cargar a toda la disidencia con la excusa de que estaban infectados.

Pueden hacer, literalmente, lo que al partido le de la gana.

[Derby]

Magistral...

https://www.ft.com/content/8e644cbe-5719-11ea-abe5-8e03987b7b20

Breaking contracts over coronavirus is harder than it sounds


The rules around force majeure are murky and complicated by government actions

Remember that in 1989, after tanks rolled into Tiananmen Square on June 4, some companies were unable to claim force majeure. That’s because Chinese government bodies refused to certify that something abnormal had happened in Beijing. This time, several questions need to be answered before assessing the feasibility of force majeure claims.

First, many of the restrictive measures, such as quarantine or denying access, were actually imposed by local police, city governments and provincial governments. Although many decisions were reported to and cleared by the Chinese central government, the opacity of the decision-making process may well impede Chinese companies from using force majeure claims to cancel contracts with foreign entities. Beijing would do well to streamline and increase the transparency of its decision-making process so that local companies can prove the existence of a force majeure situation.

Second, some Chinese local and central government officials have given very reassuring statements on the limited impact of the outbreak. These are intended to bolster domestic confidence in face of this terrible epidemic. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs even criticised the US and some other western governments for the wave of travel restrictions. These statements could be used to argue that the impact of the outbreak has been somewhat limited, and are therefore not a justification for cancelling contracts. The WHO’s decision not to impose travel restrictions is also problematic.

Making matters more complex, the Chinese central government is now asking companies to restart their operations. But individual groups are very reluctant to do that for fear that returning workers might be diagnosed with coronavirus. That in turn could lead to a shutdown imposed by the local government and there is no financial support from the state in that case. Yet failing to obey a central government instruction to restart might well prevent a company from claiming force majeure.

It is also a question of whether the restrictions imposed by overseas governments, such as forced quarantine or closed borders, really create an unforeseeable and insurmountable impediment for the execution of a contract and therefore count as force majeure.

Yet companies cannot hold fire forever. Failure to file force majeure claims in a timely manner would also put them in danger of being in breach of contract.

If this crisis lasts much longer and continues to spread, the question of force majeure will become ever more urgent, not just for Chinese companies and their foreign partners but also for companies in other places affected by the outbreak, including South Korea, Italy and beyond.This outbreak has inevitably disrupted, at least temporarily, global supply chains and presented substantial difficulties for contracting parties. It is also creating a mountain of legal claims that may take years to sort out.

[Derby]

Sobre los comentarios de "desglobalización"...El-Erian:

https://thesoundingline.com/el-erian-coronavirus-aiding-de-globalization-massive-fiscal-and-monetary-stimulus-coming/

El-Erian: Coronavirus Aiding De-Globalization; Massive Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus Coming

“If you are a company, you’ve realized what most of us know: you’re strength can become your weakness. Global supply chains are wonderful. Just-in-time, cheapest production, etc…, but when they get disrupted, they are really really problematic. I think increasingly companies are going to realize that efficiency versus predictability and that trade off, in the past, has gone way too far in terms of efficiency. So, I think you are going to see a revisiting of this whole globalization narrative…”

“…I have no doubt that we are going to see one of the biggest correlated… fiscal expansions in Asia that we have ever seen. Put on top of that monetary stimulus. So, we are going to have massive fiscal and monetary stimulus. But if you and I don’t want to be in the same room together; if I can’t source my products from you, it’s not clear whether that’s going to help…”

 

[CHOSEN]

No sé muy bien que quiere decir con esta frase. Que yo sepa nadie ha obligado a los chinos a aplicar cuarentenas

¿?
Desde luego, esto es como predicar en el desierto.
China decidió cerrar fábricas unilateralmente por culpa de "una gripe" con tasa de mortalidad inferior a la gripe normal    desabasteciendo con ello a la mitad del planeta. Nótese que la otra mitad industrializada son ellos.
Todo ha sido una demostración de fuerza. Mostrando al mundo que son capaces de aislar una región de 20 millones de habitantes "porquesí"; incluso se regodean online, construyendo un hospital para varios miles en una semana.
Desde el primer día ha sido el ensayo de su capacidad de respuesta ante contingencias.

El que no lo vea es que está ciego.
Peor, lleva ciego desde que empezó el año

[teuton]

Yo lo entiendo como que Powell, como autoridad monetaria le dice a Trump "oye chico estamos sin munición, estoy tragando con todo lo que puedo, todos los bonos MBS, ABS y demás xBS que hay, pero tienes que hacer tú algo como autoridad fiscal, incentiva al personal para que esto no decaiga" […]

No lo entiendo así.

La frase de la errata va seguida de un 'para qué'. La finalidad. Es la autoridad fiscal la que pretende ganar la reelección y por tanto posponer el repinchazo.

Aquí y allí, las democracias popular-capitalistas votamos 'suelta a Barrabás' ('queremos ladrillo caro'), mientras se pide pena máxima a la autoridad monetaria (romano Pilatos) para el inocente que se atreve a decir la verdad: ¡crucifícalo!.

La autoridad monetaria no necesita ser elegida democráticamente por la mayoría natural, como bien se remarca en el mismo mensaje de 'asustadísimos'.

Si lo he entendido bien, el maestro lo corregirá, y yo borraré esto.

Saludos.

Halla errata o no el conjunto del mensaje se entiende  o por lo menos yo lo entiendo como vengo diciendo desde principios o mediados de enero. Powell que tiene la batalla perdida porque Trump quiere hacer lo que le sale de los kinder y que el otro agache la cabeza, estos personajes son así ya he conocido unos cuantos y son todos iguales, ha aconsejado a Trump a que anime la subida por la parte fiscal con incentivos. Si la caida sigue los incentivos aumentarán con lo que el muerto se lo irá colgando cada vez más Trump y la parte monetaria podrá decir cuando todo se derrumbe que la parte fiscal no ha hecho su trabajo bien, eso es lo que haría yo con un personaje de este tipo que solo ve el cortoplacismo a golpe de tweet.

[saturno]

Y no hay otra respuesta que bajar los precios fijos de alojamiento local para permitir la relocalización de lo que quede.

Ahora sí.  Frente antipopularcapitalista, uníos, y diviértanse

Conste que para una huelga de alquileres, ahora es el buen momento. Concretar el derecho para siempre. Todo irá en el mismo paquete.

[zombietoads]

Así vamos, hablar para "que duela", es decir para joder al prójimo por joder. Típico de la fiolosofía pisitófila.

Qué te pasa, niñato deficiente?
Te ha llegado el periodo maníaco?
Necesitas atención?
Hay cortes en la cadena de suministro de la medicación  para tu desequilibrio mental?

Vete a apostar tu dinero a bolsa y déjanos tranquilos, majadero!
Si puede ser, bien apalancado.

Ha contestado muy rápido y muy cabreado…, ergo le ha dolido mucho. Para eso era.
¡¡¡ TUUUSSSSOOOO ¡!!  VAS A MORDER. 
HASTA NUNCA, MALTRATADOR. 

Permítanme el offtopic pero venir a un foro de nuevas, llamando maltratadores a usuarios, tirando la piedra y borrando mensajes después (y más en un foro habitualmente cordial y agradable, sin molestarse en ver cómo va el funcionamiento) es buscarse el baneo, vaya; en especial si no hay propósito de la enmienda sino que se continúan las quejas en otro hilo.
Saludos.

[Saturio]

Discusiones sobre qué mata más y qué mata menos.

No se sabe muy bien cuanta gente mata la gripe. Esa es la verdad. Al final, cuando alguien muere hay que poner en un registro la causa de la muerte. Lógicamente cuando alguien está ingresado durante semanas o meses por el motivo que sea, cuando al final muere, poner que ha sido por causa de la gripe se hace difícil porque entonces se estaría quitando importancia a las dolencias de base en las estadísticas.

En algún sitio he leído que si se hacen comparaciones estacionales por semanas podría hacerse la hipótesis nada descabellada de que la gripe mata entre 10.000 y 20.000 personas al año en España.

Véase este gráfico por meses de 2017


https://es.statista.com/estadisticas/474562/numero-de-defunciones-en-espana-por-mes/


Reflexionemos sobre una cosa. Si no hubiese habido toda la información previa ¿habríamos notado que en ciertas regiones de Italia habían muerto 12 octogenarios en un periodo de varias semanas?.

[Derby]

Entretanto...veamos qué tal le ido a Trump en India 

https://www.thequint.com/news/india/modi-trump-meet-india-how-foreign-media-covered-the-visit

‘Pageantry’, ‘No Substance’: Foreign Media on Trump’s India Visit

US President Donald Trump came to India for a whirlwind 36-hour official visit in which he visited three cities and also attended a mega rally hosted by Prime Minister Modi to welcome him in Ahmedabad.

Trump’s India Visit Opens With More Symbolism Than Substance As He Celebrates Ties With A Fellow Nationalist: Washington Post

Trump Concludes India Visit Without Major Agreements: CNN

CNN called Trump’s visit a "showy state visit to India", "with plenty of impressive photos but without major announcements on trade or security".

Through the course of the report, CNN mentioned multiple times how the outcome of the visit appeared to be "more about optics than policy".

Like The Washington Post, this report too dwelled on how he did not publicly bring up the citizenship law or Indian action in Kashmir, which has been discussed in the political circles of the US as well. The report said:

“Modi has come under sharp criticism for steps that his critics fear could deny Indian Muslims citizenship, which prompted the deadly street protests in Delhi. American officials have expressedconcern about the law, fearing it could amount to anti-Democratic backsliding. In his remarks on Monday, Trump made broad references to India’s history as a pluralistic democracy, noting it’s a country where people of multiple faiths “worship side by side in harmony.” But he did not directly raise the issue during his multiple public appearances with Modi, and in his Ahmedabad speech Trump said “every nation has the right to secure and controlled borders.”

'America Loves India' Trump Declares At Rally With Modi: The New York Times

The New York Times began its report by describing the atmosphere in Ahmedabad ahead of the 'Namaste Trump' event, pointing out that while ostentatious, the number of people present at the event were much less than Trump's estimated 10 million.
The report observed:

“...although Mr Trump said with satisfaction that 125,000 people had turned out to see him, more than one third of the crowd appeared to leave before the end of his nearly 30-minute remarks, and another third was gone by the time Mr Modi spoke after him.”

For Trump And Modi, Ethnic Purity Is The Purpose Of Power: The Guardian

The Guardian focused almost entirely on how Trump did not denounce Modi's citizenship law publicly. The article gives a historical background of America's citizenship laws in early 20th century, which made certain races ineligible for naturalisation.

India Pours on the Pageantry With Colorful Welcome For Trump: Associated Press

Of all the foreign publications, The Associated Press probably took the most conservative stance on the Modi-Trump meet. However, while detailing the elaborate arrangements made for Trump's address in Motera, the article also mentions the violence in Delhi and anti-Trump protests in many city.

[senslev]

S&P / Nasdaq / Dow

By the end of February, if we see these following closes, the bull market is in real danger:
S&P (June futures)  monthly close below              3,090
Nasdaq (June futures)   monthly close below       8,400
Dow            monthly close below                        26,800


The importance of the monthly chart

There are 4 trading days left to the month. The Emini might still trade below the January low in February. It would then be an outside down month. Furthermore, if February closes near its low, it will form a micro double top with January on the monthly chart. That would make lower prices likely in March.

Even if February does not go outside down, it will probably close below the midpoint of the month. That increases the chance of lower prices in March.

Is this the start of a bear trend? It is too early to tell. But if the bears continue to get bear bars, traders will expect a 10% correction.

I have been saying since Christmas that 2020 will be in a trading range between 2900 and 3500. Also, I said that the high of the year would probably be in the 1st quarter. Both are still likely.



Pero me cuesta ver que bajen este año y me cuesta ver que no toquen los 10000 el Nasdaq y los 30000 en el Dow (3500+ el SP500).

Que el SP perfore la media de 200 con claridad en cierre mensual (3044), haste que no vea eso, fuegos de artificio para incautos (como llevan tanto tiempo haciendo) 

PD, ya lo estan volviendo a levantar al cierre de la sesion, para variar y tal...

[Derby]

La prensa india...

https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/heres-what-experts-say-about-donald-trumps-india-visit/1880212/

Here’s what experts say about Donald Trump’s India visit

The US President has assured India is highest consideration for further collaboration in the defence sector.

Earlier media persons after the bilateral talks between the two leaders, foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla said that the talks were focused on five major categories – security, defence, energy, technology and people to people contact.

The US President has assured India is highest consideration for further collaboration in the defence sector. While pointing out that India has the highest tariffs in the world, the visiting leader hinted that the trade deal will probably happen by the end of the year. According to Trump “India is going to be major a player in the next 50 to 100 years and it is going to have a phenomenal future.”

(...)“PM Modi has cultivated a special relationship with President Trump and their personal rapport has been instrumental in pushing India-US relations forward. By visiting India before the US presidential elections, President Trump hopes to decisively win over the influential and wealthy Indian diaspora in the US which could play an important role in bringing Trump back to White House again,” he says.

According to Dr Sharma, “Trade would continue to be an area where the US and India would continue to have issues. The two countries share a strategic convergence to balance China and so far, trade issues have not been able to spoil this understanding. If he comes back to power, Trump 2.0 could be a trade nightmare for India. New Delhi would need to sort out these issues, else China would have the last laugh.”