PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2019

[Derby]

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/global-recession-now-baked-in-the-cake-nDwvDXbJk0uc8TeSMMdSIQ

Global Recession Now Baked in the Cake



The JP Morgan, Markit Global Manufacturing PMI signals a global recession.

Global manufacturing suffers steepest contraction in over a decade as COVID-19 outbreak hits supply chains and demand according to Markit.

Six Key Points

1.-Global Manufacturing PMI slumps to 47.2
2.-Survey-record contraction in China; rest of the world stagnates on average
3.-Global trade falls at fastest pace since April 2009
4.-Global Manufacturing Decline Steepest Since 2009
5.-Manufacturing employment declined for the third successive month in February, with the rate of job losses the fastest since August 2009.
6.-Purchasing activity declined to the greatest extent in the series history (which started in October 2009).





Global Recession Baked in the Cake

A global recession is baked in the cake.

The definition of "global recession" depends on which economist you talk with.
Informally, past IMF chief economists have called global growth lower than either 3% or 2.5% -- depending on who was the chief economist -- a recession. But that didn’t pass muster with Olivier Blanchard, the IMF’s current chief economist, who on Oct. 8, 2008 said “it is not useful to use the word ‘recession’ when the world is growing at 3%.”

By that definition, a recession has started.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade-usa-talks-tariffs/uk-wants-retaliatory-tariffs-removed-early-on-in-u-s-trade-talks-truss-idUSKBN20P2RV

UK wants retaliatory tariffs removed early on in U.S. trade talks: Truss

British trade minister Liz Truss said she wanted with the United States to agree to the removal of retaliatory tariffs on some British and U.S. products over EU subsidies on large aircraft early in trade negotiations to show goodwill.

“I want to see an urgent settlement of the Airbus/Boeing dispute so we can remove these retaliatory tariffs,” Truss told parliament. “I am urging, as an early part of these trade negotiations, removal of existing tariffs to show goodwill towards the negotiations.”

[Derby]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/02/uk-says-it-will-not-lower-standards-to-strike-trade-deal-with-trump

British economy 'to grow 0.16% at best under US trade deal'

The British economy would be at most 0.16% larger by the middle of the next decade under a comprehensive trade deal with the US, the government has admitted, laying bare the limited benefits from striking an agreement with Donald Trump.

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/jim-cramer-coronavirus-vaccine-more-important-than-fed-lowering-rates.html

Cramer: ‘Unless the Fed can create a vaccine or beat the virus,’ rate cuts won’t matter

The cure for the stock market’s coronavirus-driven volatility is not lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Monday.

“Unless the Fed can create a vaccine or beat the virus, then it really doesn’t matter,” Cramer said on “Squawk on the Street.”

[senslev]

ES  +4.76%. Que no cierre por encima de 3190.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/observations/obs200301/

So although I expect dramatically greater market losses over the completion of this cycle – and safety nets remain essential – investors shouldn’t rule out a rather violent “clearing rally” in the coming days, to relieve this short-term compression, possibly including one or more daily advances on the order of 4-6% (yes, I mean 100-175 points on the S&P 500). Given the serious deterioration that we observe in our measures of market internals, my guess is that a clearing rally may be of the “fast, furious, prone-to-failure” variety. But in any event, buckle up.

[Yupi_Punto]

https://www.ft.com/content/5b5b8990-5a98-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc

US supply chains and ports under strain from coronavirus


Warnings of disruptions heighten focus on China’s outsized role in global sourcing

The coronavirus outbreak is straining the just-in-time supply chains on which global business has come to depend, as US ports brace for cargo volumes to drop by 20 per cent or more in the first quarter of 2020.

Businesses that had started the year celebrating a truce in the tariff battle between Washington and Beijing are now struggling to secure goods ranging from car components to toys, reviving a debate about western companies’ reliance on China even as more new cases of the virus are reported outside the country than inside.

(...)Panjiva, the S&P-owned trade data company, reported that west coast ports are particularly exposed. The Port of Los Angeles, the busiest US port, saw cargo volumes fall by just over 5 per cent in January but expects a 25 per cent drop for February.

The impact on shipping “appears to be much worse” than during the Sars outbreak almost 20 years ago, Gene Seroka, the port’s executive director told CNBC.

Prolonged disruptions to Chinese manufacturing could be “crippling to global supply chains”, analysts at Citi warned, even as executives including Apple’s Tim Cook noted that capacity in Chinese plants had begun to pick up, bolstering their hopes of a rebound.

(...)Chinese factories loom large in automotive and electronics supply chains, but warnings of disruptions have come from a wide array of companies, from Best Buy, the gadget retailer, to Crocs, the shoe brand. Carmakers from Nissan to Fiat Chrysler have all seen disruptions, Panjiva noted, while some manufacturers such as Deere are turning to costly expedited shipping to avoid them.

Columbia Sportswear, a maker of rain jackets and hiking boots, said its results this year would be “significantly affected” because contract manufacturers have found it difficult “to source certain raw materials and to produce and fulfil finished goods in a timely manner”.

(...)The virus may be “adding to the urgency of switching away from China introduced by the trade war”, Panjiva analysts said, observing that Google and Microsoft were among the companies looking to switch manufacturing.

Parece que los bancos centrales no pueden imprimir riqueza real. Hace pensar que el dinero quizá no es tan bueno. ¿Creéis descabellado que China diga que ahora quiere oro a cambio de sus bienes y no dinero impreso?

[asustadísimos]

YA ESTÁ AQUÍ (Cont. 5).—

[lemmings]

¿Rebote de gato muerto?

[R.G.C.I.M.]

Muerto de coronavirus aún con mascarilla.

Estaba cantado.
Y aún rebotara más tras la bajada de tipos del miércoles.
La semana próxima será también bonita...

Sds.

[entelequia]

Fases del 29’

[Derby]

El titular del FT lo dice todo: Wall Street cierra fuertemente al alza por la esperanza de la actuación de los bancos centrales

https://www.ft.com/content/a66b0770-5c24-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4

Wall Street closes sharply higher on hopes of central bank action

[teuton]

Mezclandolo todo; tipos de interes,par dolarEuro y caida bursatil, me da que la caida del dolar va a venir por las bajadas de interes sucesivas que va a hacer la FED a lo largo de todo este proceso y que se va a ir retroalimentando con los malos datos macro que ha iniciado el coronavirus y que van a ir viniendo con retraso.

Ayer se dijo que iban a actuar conjuntamente todos los bancos centrales, se verá quien actúa, sino es solo la FED.

Edito: El dato de permisos de la construcción de Australia, que tiene una burbuja inmobiliaria considerable, de enero que se ha dado esta noche es demoledor,

https://es.investing.com/economic-calendar/

[Derby]

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/02/why-the-coming-economic-collapse-will-not-be-caused-by-corona-virus/

Why the Coming Economic Collapse Will NOT be Caused by Corona Virus

This is the system which died in 2008. Contrary to popular belief, nothing was actually resolved. For all the talk of an “FDR revival” under Obama, speculation wasn’t actually regulated under the Dodd-Frank Act or the Volker Rule of 2010. No productive credit was created to grow the real economy under a national mission as was the case in 1933-1938.

Banks were not broken up while derivatives GREW by 40% with the new bubble concentrated in the corporate/household debt sector now collapsing. During this time, nation states continued to be stripped, as austerity was rammed down the throats of nations.

It should be no surprise that in the midst of this despair, a creative alliance was consolidated in defense of the interests of sovereign nation states and humanity at large led by the leadership of Russia and China.

This leadership took the form of the China-led Belt and Road Initiative which has grown to embrace over 130 countries today and looking more and more like an Asian-led version of the New Deal of the 1930s.

Indeed, China’s capacity to unleash long term credit for thousands of international long term infrastructure projects was made possible by the fact that it was the only country on the globe which had not given up the principles of bank separation which were destroyed in every other nation.

Very few western figures stood up to this self-induced destruction over the decades, but one notable exception here worth mentioning is the figure of the late American economist Lyndon LaRouche (1922-2019) who not only resisted this process for over four decades, but fought alongside the Schiller Institute to promote New Silk Road as early as 1996.

With the 2016 Brexit and election of President Trump, a new wave of nationalist spirit has become a fire which the technocrats have lost their capacity to snuff out.

Increasingly, the idea that nation-states have a power over the private banking system has become revived and discussion for reforming the now dead Trans-Atlantic system is increasingly shaped not by the calls for a “New World Order” as Sir Kissinger would have liked, but rather for a New Silk Road and a true New Deal.

The Eurasian nations are already firmly committed to this new system, and if the west is to qualify morally to take part in this new epoch, then the first step will be a return to a Glass-Steagall.

[asustadísimos]

YA ESTÁ AQUÍ (Cont. 6).—

Es seguro que, tarde o temprano, la autoridad monetaria norteamericana va a bajar los tipos de interés de intervención, pero no para 'rerrecuperar' nada, sino por esto:





A los estructuraltransicionistas nos interesa que EEUU, en los 'rerrebotes' de gato muerto ('yanosestamosrerrecuperando'), propios del trace de Repinchazo que estamos viviendo, se quede sin munición monetaria para la Rerrecesión. Pase lo que pase, demos a EEUU la bienvenida a la Era Cero, es decir, a la era sin inflación y de dinero fortísimo:



¡Bendito dinero contante y sonante!

Pudiera haber una oleada de suicidios cuando los resentidísimos popularcapitalistitas se den cuenta de que imputar a la política monetaria su mierda de Reburbuja bursátil e inmobiliaria —y a una epidemia de coronavirus, el Crack 2020, Año de la Destrucción— es una falacia 'non causa pro causa' que solo ha traído desgracias al mundo, empezando por la precariedad laboral y residencial y la pobreza de la juventud, y terminando con el 'brexit' y la 'yihad' arancelaria. La diferencia ahora, en el Repinchazo de la Reburbuja, respecto de hace una década, cuando el Pinchazo de la Burbuja, es que ya no nos dan ninguna pena. ¡Que les den!

[JENOFONTE10]

¿Rebote de gato muerto?

LIQUIDEZ BENDITA

No se han preguntado por qué tantas empresas (IBEX y no IBEX) llevan años persiguiendo (y muchas consiguiendo) reducir deuda 'desesperadamente', en aparente contradicción con los tipos bajos y su consiguiente crédito barato y abundante (QE), que parecen invitar a lo contrario, como en una parodia de aquella tentación del pasado evangelio dominical: 'tírate desde lo alto, que los ángeles del préstamo barato cuantitativo te recogerán'.

La contradicción parece reforzada tras la recién asumida ERA CERO, con su abandono del escenario 'normalizacionista' (subida de tipos + inflación), prorrogando sine die las expectativas de tipos bajos: primero 'por un tiempo prolongado' (el 'WIT' de Draghi) y ahora, ya duraderas, 'nueva normalidad' (V. varias 'hojas del lunes' de Ureta, enlazadas por el maestro).

No descubro América si les digo que la reducción continuada, poca deuda, o mejor aún 'deuda negativa', se ha convertido en uno de los parámetros para decidir inversión preferido estos últimos años. Casos notables entre las constructoras: FCC, OHL, etc. Se puede usar como herramienta de selección, tipo calibre 'pasa, no-pasa': mucha deuda, o creciente -> descartar.

Mi esperanza en la suavidad del Repinchazo se basa también en el distinto comportamiento de los agentes económicos con la deuda: en la Reburbuja inmobiliaria no se han originado tantas hipotecas impagables como en el Pinchazo 2008, y la banca ha sido obligada a amortizar, provisionar o desaguar buena parte de su ladrillo tóxico.

Atiendo al rebote de este gato muerto tratando de distinguir entre deudores por su sostenibilidad, aquellos con aceite LÍQUIDO en sus lámparas para transitar la venidera (Ya está aquí^{asustadísimos}) oscura noche.

Saludos.