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Surging Euro Presents E.C.B. With a DilemmaA rising currency is eroding the competitiveness of European exporters. Officially, the central bank isn’t allowed to do anything about it.European policymakers appear to have contained economic destruction from the pandemic by administering a strong dose of monetary policy, government stimulus, and restrictions on travel and gatherings. But the measures came with an unwelcome side effect.The euro has risen 10 percent against the dollar since March, a vote of confidence by investors that also creates big problems for European exporters. Their products automatically become more expensive for customers who pay in other currencies, putting them at a disadvantage against foreign rivals when sales are already depressed and competition is intense.For the European Central Bank, which is meeting Thursday to discuss monetary policy, the stronger euro is yet another headache. The bank’s Governing Council is not expected to make any changes to its stimulus program, which is already enormous. But Christine Lagarde, the central bank’s president, is likely to be bombarded with questions about the euro and the dollar when she holds a news conference Thursday afternoon in Frankfurt.Ms. Lagarde will be extremely cautious about what she says. The dilemma that she and government policymakers face is that any action to weaken the currency might be interpreted as a violation of the de facto nonaggression pact among the world’s largest economic powers not to provoke currency wars. Deliberate attempts to manipulate currency rates are regarded as a zero-sum game that helps one economy at the expense of others.An unfavorable exchange rate is the one problem that central bankers are not allowed to do anything about — at least not openly.Philip Lane, the European Central Bank’s chief economist, created a furor last week, and caused the euro to weaken, when he said at an online forum that the exchange rate “does matter” to policymakers. Even though he was stating the obvious, seemingly innocuous statements can have unintended power when they come from a central banker.The economic pain when a currency’s value rises is real.“Fundamentally every change in exchange rates is a change in price and competitiveness,” said Ralph Wiechers, chief economist at the Mechanical Engineering Industry Association, which represents mostly midsize German manufacturers.Amid increasingly sophisticated competition from China, he said, “the exchange rate advantage will be exploited in the battle for contracts.”Europe has been here before. The euro hit 1.49 to the dollar in 2011, when strong growth prompted the European Central Bank to raise interest rates, compared with 1.18 euros to the dollar on Wednesday. But the most recent surge in the euro, which was at 1.07 when the pandemic reached Europe in March, comes during the worst downturn on record. Output in the eurozone fell 11.8 percent from April through June, according to revised figures published Tuesday.Economists expect to see a sharp rebound during the quarter now underway, but they say economic activity will remain well below what it was before lockdowns began.If the economic outlook worsens, the central bank could decide to do even more to push down market interest rates. That would also tend to weaken the euro. The threat of deflation — a destructive decline in prices — would provide another justification for central bank action. A strong euro contributes to the risk of deflation because imported goods become cheaper for European buyers.Annual inflation in the eurozone was minus 0.2 percent in August, according to official figures. But the European Central Bank has already committed to pumping as much as 1.35 trillion euros, or $1.6 trillion, into the economy as part of a program to combat the effects of the pandemic. There are limits to how much more it can do.The euro has been rising in part because investors think Europe is recovering well from the economic effects of the pandemic, and they have been buying euros to invest in European stocks.At the same time, the dollar has been weakening because of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the perception by investors that the United States is struggling to deal with the pandemic. Uncertainty about the outcome of the presidential election in November may also be weighing on the dollar.Even before the pandemic, European exporters were suffering from trade tensions. The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on European steel and aluminum, and there has been a proliferation of hidden trade barriers such as regulations in countries, like China, that hinder foreign companies.No matter what the European Central Bank does, many export companies are expected to go bankrupt, particularly in countries that have been hit the hardest by the pandemic and its economic impact, like Spain and Italy.Still, Mr. Wiechers said he did not want the central bank to try to weaken the euro. The bank should stay focused on its main task of keeping prices stable, he said. “For us,” he said, “it’s more about reliability than short-term measures.”
'No US-UK trade deal if agreement is threatened'The US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has warned that there will be "absolutely no chance" of a US-UK trade agreement if Brexit undermines the Good Friday Agreement.She was responding to Boris Johnson's move to override key parts of the Brexit withdrawal agreement.Speaker Pelosi issued a statement on Wednesday praising the Good Friday Agreement as NI's "bedrock of peace".She said Brexit cannot be "allowed to imperil" the agreement."The UK must respect the Northern Ireland Protocol as signed with the EU to ensure the free flow of goods across the border," Ms Pelosi said."If the UK violates that international treaty and Brexit undermines the Good Friday accord, there will be absolutely no chance of a US-UK trade agreement passing the Congress," she added.(...)
Eres un atrasao que no se adapta y un pisitófilo.
Mistermaguf, los cambios, tal como comentamos pollo y yo hace unos días, no son fáciles. Al revés, suelen ser muy duros porque se tiende a resistirlos hasta que están maduros y se vuelven inevitables.De momento, las mismas empresas que antes se resistían al teletrabajo con excusas variadas (desde que no les gusta a los inversores hasta la "imagen" que se da) ahora han descubierto la pólvora. No sólo se han ahorrado costes dejando de alquilar oficinas, también el personal ha trabajado muchísimo más que antes. El hielo ya está roto y el cambio es inevitable.Lo siguiente, por supuesto, será que este cambio madure. Y hay mucho más que la necesidad de socializar y de no mezclar la casa con el trabajo. Pasar del presentismo y el trabajo por tiempo al trabajo remoto y el trabajo por objetivos es un cambio durísimo. Antes del confinamiento ya se sabía que la productividad en el trabajo típico de oficina era lamentable, pero ahora ha quedado del todo al descubierto. Más de uno ha visto que el trabajo real se lo podía ventilar en dos o tres horas al día, y el resto... a mirar la pared.Hace mucho que se sabía que hay muchos que dicen que odian el trabajo, pero tras una o dos semanas de vacaciones empiezan a echarlo de menos porque les estructuraba el día, y les ahorraba aguantar a la pareja y los niños tanto tiempo. Para ellos, el trastorno de sus vidas ha sido mayúsculo.El teletrabajo no será ni la panacea ni para todo el mundo, pero es una realidad que ya está aquí y que ha llegado para quedarse. Y para solventar los problemas que comentabas, pues habrá que adaptarse. Si el trabajo sin socializar se hace pesado, pues tendremos que aprender a concentrar el trabajo en unas pocas horas y dedicar el resto a socializar. Pero de verdad, en la calle o en cualquier sitio fuera de una oficina. Si no sienta bien acumular tantas horas de trabajo en casa y se mezcla la vida laboral con la personal, trasladarse a una ciudad de provincias o pueblo grande permite tener además de casas de más metros cuadrados, espacios de oficinas. En España hay mucho, muchísimo sitio disponible. Lo oculta la concentración de población en muy pocos puntos. En Barcelona está claro que sólo alguien forrado se podría permitir una casa de dos plantas y dejar la baja como espacio de trabajo, pero fuera de los núcleos gordos de población es mucho más fácil para cualquiera.El cambio va a ser duro, y en España va a ser durísimo. Va a ser un golpe a nuestra ineficiente forma de trabajar, pero es lo que hay. Las grandes empresas de fuera ya están reduciendo oficinas, algunas ya hasta han dado órdenes a sus trabajadores de trabajar desde donde quieran. Y además está el recuerdo de la pandemia, si ha pasado una vez puede volver a pasar. Redistribuir la población en vez de seguir concentrándola va a ser imprescindible para contener futuras pandemias.
Lo que decía en mi post anterior no es, por lo tanto, una tralación de mi caso personal al resto de la gente. Por el contrario, es un llamado a la reflexión sobre que los que a muchos nos viene de perlas para mucha gente (y empresas también) puede significar nuevos problemas que aún no han tomado cuerpo, y que además las consecuencias inmobiliarias, urbanas y territoriales tampoco están aún del todo claras. Esto además puede suponer cambios estructurales en la fiscalidad de los países, que es uno de los puntales de una eventual transición estructural (que podría dirigirse además en algún sentido que no es precisamente el que más nos gustaría debido, precisamente a lo que comentáis de lo difícil de asumir esos cambios para mucha gente).
Se trata de una PYME del cinturón barcelonés internacionalizada, con planta de producción que es dirigida por dos hermanos hijos del fundador y entrados en años. Según ellos, y esto lo ha transmitido tal cual el departamento de RRHH: “se echa de menos el calor humano que da la convivencia en las oficinas“.Las razones reales diría que son el hecho de que la fábrica y la oficina son de ellos (vía sociedad patrimonial) y también que se gastaron un dineral para remodelar las oficinas con diseños hipsters (enviando a toda la administración a un coworking durante meses) y pillarles el confinamiento sin haber podido estrenar las oficinas.Intuyo también que esta decisión es un reflejo de la mentalidad reinante de la burguesía barcelonesa, feroz defensora de la pisitofilia y la concentración poblacional en su Urbe.
https://www.epi.org/blog/different-economic-crisis-same-mistake-the-fed-cannot-make-up-for-the-republican-senates-inaction/CitarDifferent economic crisis, same mistake(...) It’s obvious why many focus on the Fed and wish it would be more transformative in helping the economy out of crises—the Fed has cleared the very low bar of showing some level of competence and judgement in recent crises, while Congress has completely stumbled. But it’s Congress that has the tools needed to end the crisis, and it can use them anytime it wants. They—and the Senate Republican caucus that is the roadblock to using these tools—should be the focus of policy attention today. They shouldn’t be let off the hook simply because we presume they’re too incompetent (or malevolent) to be expected to act responsibly.If a better Congress doesn’t appear, it may well be the case that we need to think hard about giving the Fed more effective tools to fight recessions in the future. It’s not impossible economically—we could give the Fed the legal right and administrative tools to transfer resources directly to people. But giving the Fed these expanded tools would require Congress to affirmatively grant them. In the end, there is no end-around a Congress that refuses to do what’s right for U.S. families.
Different economic crisis, same mistake(...) It’s obvious why many focus on the Fed and wish it would be more transformative in helping the economy out of crises—the Fed has cleared the very low bar of showing some level of competence and judgement in recent crises, while Congress has completely stumbled. But it’s Congress that has the tools needed to end the crisis, and it can use them anytime it wants. They—and the Senate Republican caucus that is the roadblock to using these tools—should be the focus of policy attention today. They shouldn’t be let off the hook simply because we presume they’re too incompetent (or malevolent) to be expected to act responsibly.If a better Congress doesn’t appear, it may well be the case that we need to think hard about giving the Fed more effective tools to fight recessions in the future. It’s not impossible economically—we could give the Fed the legal right and administrative tools to transfer resources directly to people. But giving the Fed these expanded tools would require Congress to affirmatively grant them. In the end, there is no end-around a Congress that refuses to do what’s right for U.S. families.
Cita de: Derby en Septiembre 09, 2020, 20:09:34 pmhttps://www.epi.org/blog/different-economic-crisis-same-mistake-the-fed-cannot-make-up-for-the-republican-senates-inaction/CitarDifferent economic crisis, same mistake(...) It’s obvious why many focus on the Fed and wish it would be more transformative in helping the economy out of crises—the Fed has cleared the very low bar of showing some level of competence and judgement in recent crises, while Congress has completely stumbled. But it’s Congress that has the tools needed to end the crisis, and it can use them anytime it wants. They—and the Senate Republican caucus that is the roadblock to using these tools—should be the focus of policy attention today. They shouldn’t be let off the hook simply because we presume they’re too incompetent (or malevolent) to be expected to act responsibly.If a better Congress doesn’t appear, it may well be the case that we need to think hard about giving the Fed more effective tools to fight recessions in the future. It’s not impossible economically—we could give the Fed the legal right and administrative tools to transfer resources directly to people. But giving the Fed these expanded tools would require Congress to affirmatively grant them. In the end, there is no end-around a Congress that refuses to do what’s right for U.S. families.Cita de: Derby en Septiembre 09, 2020, 20:09:34 pmhttps://www.epi.org/blog/different-economic-crisis-same-mistake-the-fed-cannot-make-up-for-the-republican-senates-inaction/CitarDifferent economic crisis, same mistake(...) It’s obvious why many focus on the Fed and wish it would be more transformative in helping the economy out of crises—the Fed has cleared the very low bar of showing some level of competence and judgement in recent crises, while Congress has completely stumbled. But it’s Congress that has the tools needed to end the crisis, and it can use them anytime it wants. They—and the Senate Republican caucus that is the roadblock to using these tools—should be the focus of policy attention today. They shouldn’t be let off the hook simply because we presume they’re too incompetent (or malevolent) to be expected to act responsibly.If a better Congress doesn’t appear, it may well be the case that we need to think hard about giving the Fed more effective tools to fight recessions in the future. It’s not impossible economically—we could give the Fed the legal right and administrative tools to transfer resources directly to people. But giving the Fed these expanded tools would require Congress to affirmatively grant them. In the end, there is no end-around a Congress that refuses to do what’s right for U.S. families.Con tu permiso, Derby, llevo esta noticia al hilo de la RBU, todo se va alineando para que en breve veamos a la FED entregar masivamente dinero en e-wallets a todo ciudadano USA ...Sds,
Manhattan apartment listings soar, pushing vacancies to a record
Manhattan rental market plunges, leaving 15,000 empty apartments in August-The number of empty rental apartments in Manhattan nearly tripled compared with last year, according to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel.-The inventory of empty units, which rose to 15,000 in August, is the largest ever recorded since data started being collected 14 years ago, the report said. -Hopes for a rebound in the fall or the end of 2020 look increasingly unlikely.
Cajamar y Haya Real Estate ponen a la venta 3.700 viviendas con descuentos de hasta el 50%
The European Parliament and the post-Brexit trade agreement: How long is needed for scrutiny?