PPCC. PIsitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2020

[Derby]

https://us.cnn.com/2020/08/12/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

Britain finally has something 'world beating.' A deep recession

(...) Lockdowns necessitated by the coronavirus pandemic were the principle cause for the widespread economic destruction. But there is ample evidence that policy decisions made by voters and their elected leaders — both in the recent past and years ago — made the crisis worse than it could have been.

Rewind to June 23, 2016. That's the day the British people voted by a narrow margin to leave the European Union, their biggest export market, and embark on a new future outside the bloc.
The result was years of uncertainty that discouraged companies from investing in Britain and sapped the economy of much of its dynamism. Average annual gains in real GDP fell from 2.4% in the three years prior to the vote to 1.6% after, according to Berenberg.

"Future historians will mark 23 June 2016 as the day when the UK, like a train switching tracks, suddenly veered off onto a different path," Kallum Pickering, a senior economist at Berenberg, said in a research note.

The malaise was well established when the coronavirus pandemic struck earlier this year, leaving the economy more vulnerable and flummoxing a government led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson that has been widely criticized for its response.

Johnson promised a "world beating" track and trace system, but it has not materialized. Care homes for the elderly have been ravaged by the disease, the government was slow to add testing capacity and the prime minister's chief adviser confused government messaging on social distancing by driving hundreds of miles to a second home during lockdown.

One result: The UK economy has shed 730,000 jobs since the coronavirus pandemic shuttered businesses in March, with the young, the old and the self-employed bearing the brunt of the unemployment crisis.

The outlook for the UK economy remains bleak.

Even after years of back and forth over Brexit, the country has not yet negotiated a post-Brexit trade agreement with the European Union. The deadline for such a deal to be struck is the end of the year. Talks are not going well — raising the possibility of another major shock just as the expected economic recovery gains momentum.

"Whether the post-Brexit path will run largely parallel to the old one, with the UK heading in a roughly similar direction ... or take a new direction entirely, remains an open question," said Pickering.

[sirou]

A joderse.
Haber nacido antes.

Yo vuelvo con mi neurolinguística de barra de bar. Ayer era el Covid, que forzaba los precios de alquiler, como un sátiro forzando a una ninfa. Hoy El Pais dice que el problema es que los jóvenes ganan poco. Los precios están bien. Y mira que os hemos pagado la carrera, el máster, las clases de inglés y toda la tontería. Pero claro ganáis poco y además lo poco que ganáis os lo gastáis en copas, en Iphones y en viajes a Amsterdam y así no podéis pagar nunca un piso. Pues joderos y alquilar!

https://elpais.com/economia/2020-08-11/los-menores-de-34-anos-tendrian-que-cobrar-el-doble-para-poder-comprar-una-vivienda.html

Los menores de 34 años tendrían que cobrar el doble para poder comprar una vivienda
Los jóvenes españoles deberían tener un salario de 1.935,57 euros mensuales para que el coste hipotecario no superase el 30% de sus ingresos

Hay más perlas: que "joven" es hasta 34 años, que es normal que la edad media de emancipación sea 29 años (la mediana será sensiblemente mayor), que el artículo usa "valor" cuando debería decir "precio" (muy frecuente en todo publirreportaje ladrillero)...

Todo artículo sobre la vivienda en medios de masas españoles se basa (implícitamente, nunca explícitamente) en que el precio no se toca. Y de ahí ya vemos si hay que subvencionar al joven, al casero, pedir ayudas a la UE o rogar a la Virgen. Pero el precio no se toca.

Pues venga, sigamos jugando al juego.

Llevamos 12 años en el fondo, somos el país a quien más ha impactado el coronavirus y el único cuya economía no se recupera tras la primera oleada de la pandemia. Quien quiera atribuirlo sólo a la gestión del Gobierno podrá dormir tranquilo unas cuantas noches más, pero esto se debe sobre todo a tener una economía anémica basada en la estafa del ladrillo y en el turismo chancletero.

Se puede poner el precio de la vivienda en un nivel normal para reactivar la economía rápidamente, pero preferimos seguir creyéndonos ricos.

Pues venga, sigamos jugando al juego.

Y cuando pase algo gordo económica, política o socialmente - que pasará - hagámonos los sorprendidos y rasguémonos las vestiduras.

Tendrá que haber una explosión de nitrato de amonio abandonado como en el puerto de Beirut para que los gestores despierten y se pongan manos a la obra?

Por favor, que alguien registrado en El País comente en la zona de comentarios (está habilitada) algo tan simple como "otra solución podría ser bajar los precios de la vivienda a niveles en los que el salario mensual medio no suponga más del 30% de esfuerzo".

Y veamos reacciones (o borrado de comentario ...)

Copy-pasted de los comentarios de la noticia de EP:

"Pues tendrán que vivir en un piso alquilado como tuvimos que hacer la inmensa mayoría de los españoles que hoy tenemos más de sesenta años antes de poder comprarnos un piso... los que pudimos comprarlo. Creo que la época de las vacas gordas pasó. Quitando en las "ciudades principales", hay pisos de alquiler para todos los bolsillos. Lo que pasa es que los baratos - de 500 euros más o menos - ni están en el centro ni tienen todas las comodidades a las que nos hemos ido acostumbrando."

 así está el patio ... Piso barato 500 eur, vivir en las ciudades principales es un lujo, comodidades lujosas (?), Zampalangostinismo en estado puro

[Derby]

https://apnews.com/b91e66dc273756b3fab87fe89c7cf29c

US budget deficit climbs to record $2.81 trillion

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/fed-policymakers-say-economic-growth-will-be-muted-until-virus-contained-idUSKCN2581UU

Fed policymakers say economic growth will be muted until virus contained

The U.S. economic slowdown is likely to continue as more restrictions are put in place to control the coronavirus epidemic, and Americans will have to learn to “live with” the virus for the rest of the year, two Federal Reserve policymakers said on Wednesday.

[Bayne]

En Alemania no parecen estar tan bien, según Varoufakis

Solidaridad con los alemanes
lavozdegalicia.es | August 7, 2020 10:00 PM


https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/economia/2020/08/08/solidaridad-alemanes/0003_202008G8P29991.htm



Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

[Derby]

https://www.elconfidencial.com/empresas/2020-08-13/blackstone-venta-viviendas-albirana-catalunya-caixa_2712608/

Blackstone pone en venta las viviendas en alquiler de la antigua Catalunya Caixa

El fondo ultima la venta de un paquete de viviendas de Albirana Properties, socimi heredera de los activos que adquirió a la antigua Catalunya Caixa. La operación está prevista para septiembre

(...) Con una cartera total de 10.878 activos, Albirana concentrará esta operación en activos que hayan cumplido ya tres años bajo su control, al ser este el tiempo mínimo que exige la normativa de socimis mantener los inmuebles para poder beneficiarse del especial régimen fiscal de estos vehículos, que están exentos de tributar por Sociedades.

Dentro de este marco entrarían las más de 5.000 viviendas con las que salió a bolsa la socimi en marzo de 2017, valoradas entonces en 168 millones. Tres años después, y con el doble de activos, Albirana alcanza los 547 millones de euros. Cataluña es el principal mercado, con un peso del 60%, seguida de Madrid y Valencia; y el ratio de ocupación de las viviendas apenas supera el 70%.

[Derby]

https://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2020-08-13/ipc-julio-cuatro-meses-negativo-bajadas-economia_2712787/

El IPC baja hasta el -0,6% en julio y encadena cuatro meses en negativo
El IPC interanual regresa a los descensos después de que en junio repuntara seis décimas y rompiera así una racha de cuatro meses de caídas

[CHOSEN]

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

A joderse.
Haber nacido antes.

Cuando pregunten por qué los jóvenes salen en grandes grupos y sin mascarillas, supongo que recibirán un sonoro "haber nacido después" 

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

El IPC baja hasta el -0,6% en julio y encadena cuatro meses en negativo
El IPC interanual regresa a los descensos después de que en junio repuntara seis décimas y rompiera así una racha de cuatro meses de caídas

Perdonen el momento casero, pero el subidón de la cesta de la compra desde marzo no baja ni a tiros, la vivienda sigue en pico burbuja en las grandes ciudades y las facturas de gas son para temblar. No sé... habrán bajado el queroseno y el uranio, esas materias imprescindibles para las familias.

[el malo]

A joderse.
Haber nacido antes.

Cuando pregunten por qué los jóvenes salen en grandes grupos y sin mascarillas, supongo que recibirán un sonoro "haber nacido después" 

 

Nunca la venganza justicia generacional estuvo tan en bandeja.

No des ideas Visi 

[el malo]

Hablando de inmo y lonchafinismo:

https://blogs.elconfidencial.com/espana/el-confidente/2020-08-13/el-chollazo-del-sueldazo_2712668/

La diputada con sueldazo que vive en vivienda protegida

La diputada socialista asturiana Lidia Fernández Fernández vive en una casa de protección oficial adjudicada a su marido en 2010

1. Algo no va bien si una diputada tiene que vivir en una vivienda protegida.
2. Algo va muy mal si una pareja en la que uno cobra más de 4000 brutos al mes y tiene otra vivienda puede optar a una vivienda protegida.
3. Algo no funciona bien en nuestras cabezas si 4000 brutos al mes es "un sueldazo chollazo" para llevarse las manos a la cabeza pero por otro lado, 300.000 por un piso nos parece normal.

[Derby]

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/12/us-dollar-purchasing-power-drops-to-lowest-ever-inflation-heats-up-as-the-fed-wants-after-simultaneous-supply-shock-demand-shock/

Dollar’s Purchasing Power Drops to Lowest Ever. Inflation Heats Up, as Fed Wants, After Simultaneous Supply & Demand Shocks

“We’re not even thinking about thinking about” slowing the decline of the dollar’s purchasing power — and thereby labor’s purchasing power.

A supply shock and a demand shock came together during the Pandemic, and it produced chaos in the pricing environment. There was a sudden collapse in demand in some segments of the economy – restaurants, gasoline, jet fuel, for example – and a surge in demand in other segments, such as eating at home, and anything to do with ecommerce, including transportation services focused on it.

These shifts came together with supply-chain interruptions and supply chains that were unprepared for the big shifts, leading to shortages in some parts of the economy – the supply shock. There were empty shelves in stores, while product was piling up with no buyers in other parts of the economy.

The sectors surrounding gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel fuel – oil and gas drilling, equipment manufacturers, transportation services, refineries, etc. – were thrown into turmoil as demand vanished, leading to a total collapse in energy prices. In April, in a bizarre moment in the history of the oil business, the price of the US benchmark crude WTI collapsed to negative -$37 a barrel.

Since then, the price of crude oil has risen sharply (now at positive +$41 a barrel), as demand for gasoline has returned to near-normal while demand for jet fuel remains in collapse-mode, as people are driving to go on vacations, instead of flying, and as business travel is essentially shut down.

As a result, for a few months, all of the inflation data was going haywire, with some prices plunging and others spiking. This is now being worked out of the system. (...)



But the Bureau of Labor Statistics also offers the corollary index, the “Purchasing Power of the Consumer Dollar.” And it just hit a new all-time ever low. Note the purchasing power recovery during the Financial Crisis, when consumers could actually buy a little more with their labor for a few quarters:



When the Fed wants to increase consumer price inflation, it in effect wants to decrease the purchasing power of the consumer dollar.

Currently, the Fed is very impatient about chopping down the purchasing power of the dollar. To communicate this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell keeps repeating so eloquently that the Fed isn’t “even thinking about thinking about” containing the decline of the dollar’s purchasing power when it speeds up.

A decline in the purchasing power of the consumer dollar means a decline in the purchasing power of labor. And consumers (who are in their real life workers) need a corresponding increase in wage inflation.

For employers that are able to raise prices, but don’t have to raise wages, it means “cheaper labor” – and for decades this has now been one of the big issues in the US economy among the lower 40% of workers who provide this cheaper labor.

So for consumers who make their living by working, consumer price inflation means the purchasing power of their labor gets whittled down. Goods and services are more difficult to pay for, and their paycheck gets eaten up by rising costs, and there is less money left over to make mortgage payments and other debt payments.

Consumer price inflation, given the multi-decade wage environment, means the further impoverishment of the people in the lower income categories, and means making debt payments harder – not easier.

These people want wage inflation (getting paid more for the same work) to compensate them for price inflation, but wage inflation is anathema to Corporate America and the Fed.

Rising prices make debt payments easier only for those who can raise prices: Businesses, particularly Corporate America where pricing power and debts are concentrated.

[Derby]

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/kamala-harris-economy-depression-stock-market/2020/08/13/id/981941/

Trump: Biden Win Would Bring Worst Depression Since 1929

Joe Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris want to enact $4 trillion in taxes, and if they win the presidential race and their plans come through, "You will see a depression the likes of which you have never seen," President Donald Trump warned Thursday.

"You'll have to go back to 1929, I guess it doesn't get too much worse than that, and you'll just see that," Trump told Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo. "They want to tax $4 trillion. It's going to be the biggest tax increase in history by far. It will triple up records, and they are big taxers. It's just something that won't work."

The stock market, he added, is "almost back to where we were," and "we're still in the pandemic, which will be going away, as I say, it will be going away."

He also pointed out that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq composite have been "hitting records," but the economy in 2021 "depends on who wins."

"I think if [Biden] wins you're going to end up with a disaster, to be honest," said Trump. "I see his plans. The New Green Deal is something that — the likes of which nobody can even comprehend. It's drawn by children. It's so ridiculous, OK ... they're talking about no fossil fuels, which basically means no energy, you would have to close down half the businesses of the country."

But while Biden and Harris, along with Democrats, are blaming Trump for there being so many millions of people out of work, "nobody's buying it," he said.

"Look, we got hit by the China plague and we're not going to forget it," said Trump. "I built the greatest economy in history, greatest job numbers, greatest stock market numbers, greatest economic numbers. Nobody's ever seen it. I was cruising to election. They wouldn't have had a factor. George Washington would have had a hard time winning."

But there's an "overhang" with the numbers with the possibility that Biden could win, said Trump, because "If he got in, the numbers would go down thousands of points."

He added that if he wins, he'll be rebuilding the economy "twice," but "nobody blames me. Even radical left crazies out there, this is the first time I've heard the attack ... the fact is, this plague came in and I closed it up, saved millions of lives. Now we're reopening. I don't know if you saw yesterday, but I put up charts, they were incredible. You talk about a V, that's like a super V."

[wanderer]

Hablando de inmo y lonchafinismo:

https://blogs.elconfidencial.com/espana/el-confidente/2020-08-13/el-chollazo-del-sueldazo_2712668/

La diputada con sueldazo que vive en vivienda protegida

La diputada socialista asturiana Lidia Fernández Fernández vive en una casa de protección oficial adjudicada a su marido en 2010

1. Algo no va bien si una diputada tiene que vivir en una vivienda protegida.
2. Algo va muy mal si una pareja en la que uno cobra más de 4000 brutos al mes y tiene otra vivienda puede optar a una vivienda protegida.
3. Algo no funciona bien en nuestras cabezas si 4000 brutos al mes es "un sueldazo chollazo" para llevarse las manos a la cabeza pero por otro lado, 300.000 por un piso nos parece normal.

En sí no tiene porqué ser nada ilegal: seguramente cuando se la adjudicaron en 2010 entraría en los criterios (probablemente, con algún empujoncillo semilegal por eso de ser sociata, pero también posiblemente no). El verdadero problema es que no se hayan revisado en todos éstos años si sigue siendo merecedora ella y su marido de una vivienda así.

Aún peor sería si se tratara de una vivienda de protección y en propiedad, auténtica lacra del sistema.