PPCC. PIsitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2020

[Derby]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/politica/2020/11/23/5fbbfa1a468aeb8e0f8b45f1.html?intcmp=NOT002

Von der Leyen y Michel hablan por teléfono con Biden y le invitan a un Consejo Europeo

La presidenta de la Comisión y el máximo representante del Consejo Europeo felicitaron al presidente electo estadounidense y le propusieron reconstruir y fortalecer las relaciones transatlánticas en esta nueva etapa.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-evans/update-1-feds-evans-sees-no-rate-hikes-until-late-2023-maybe-2024-idUSL1N2I926Z

Fed's Evans sees no rate hikes until late 2023, maybe 2024

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said Monday there is still “quite a long ways to go” for the U.S. recovery from the coronavirus crisis, adding that he expects the Fed to keep interest rates at their current near-zero level until perhaps into 2024.

[pedrito]

Berlin landlords forced to reduce rents
https://www.dw.com/en/berlin-landlords-forced-to-reduce-rents/a-55704047?fbclid=IwAR0i6nbKjzokQ2BgmImiMfm5mBsdUhft5z1c194uNQ71t_ssVKSe4-E6ZIs
The second stage of the German capital's rent cap law has come into effect, meaning that thousands of Berlin landlords could be forced to reduce their rents. But the legal battle over the law is not yet over.

From November 23, landlords in the German capital must lower excessively high rents — that is, if they exceed a standardized limit by more than 20% — or face heavy fines. The German constitutional court dismissed the landlord associations' attempts to halt the imminent reductions at the end of October.

Read more: How Berlin's rent freeze compares globally

Some 85% of all Berliners rent their apartments, and according to the Berlin Tenants' Association (BMV), some 365,000 apartments in the city are eligible for the imminent rent reduction. But that figure is disputed: A study by the F+B real estate consultancy estimates that over half a million apartments are eligible.

[Derby]

https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia-y-finanzas/barca-dinero-hacienda_0_1412859519.html

El Barça alega que no tiene dinero para pagar 22,7 millones a Hacienda

La Agencia Tributaria le reclamó esa cantidad en junio de este año. El juez ha dado dos meses al Barça para prestar una garantía

[Derby]

Lael Brainard en las quinielas para próxima responsable de la Fed...

http://economiccollapsenews.com/2020/11/23/shes-back-joe-biden-to-tap-janet-yellen-as-next-treasury-secretary/

SHE’S BACK? Joe Biden to tap Janet Yellen as next Treasury Secretary
Guess who’s back. Back again.

According to The Wall Street Journal, President-Elect Joe Biden has chosen former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to head the Treasury Department.

The newspaper cited unnamed sources, adding that Biden is expected to reveal his Treasury Secretary around Thanksgiving.

Does this set the stage for Lael Brainard to be Biden’s pick as the next head of the Federal Reserve? Probably.

But with John Kerry and Antony Blinken already being given top slots in his administration, the foul stench of the Swamp is returning. Not that much of it left anyway, but still…

https://www.ambito.com/economia/tesoro/quien-es-lael-brainard-la-favorita-ser-la-primera-secretaria-del-eeuu-n5149691

[sudden and sharp]

Tremendo.



Este es el nivel...

Y los berlineses preocupaos.


https://www.bz-berlin.de/berlin/debatte-um-mittelfinger-masken-kampagne-des-berliner-senats



[Divide et impera.]

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/article/britain-eu-assetmanagement/uk-will-remain-global-leader-for-asset-management-after-brexit-sunak-idUSL9N2HI00Z

UK will remain global leader for asset management after Brexit: Sunak
British finance minister Rishi Sunak said on Tuesday he was determined that the United Kingdom would remain a global leader for asset management after Brexit.

“We’re beginning a new relationship with the EU. And as we do so, we are determined that the UK will remain a global leader for asset management,” Sunak said in comments to a conference organised by The Investment Association, an industry group.

[Derby]

Un "agujerillo" de 450 millones de nada  Lo traigo a este hilo, al hilo de las declaraciones de Sunak. York Capital tiene su sede europea en Londres...

https://yorkcapital.com/about/

https://www.reuters.com/article/credit-suisse-gp-york-capital/update-2-credit-suisse-flags-450-million-impairment-on-york-capital-management-stake-idUSL8N2IA0RG

Credit Suisse flags $450 million impairment on York Capital Management stake

Credit Suisse expects to take a roughly $450 million impairment on its stake in alternative investment firm York Capital Management, the Swiss bank said.

The Wall Street Journal on Monday reported York Capital, run by billionaire hedge-fund manager Jamie Dinan, had informed employees and investors about plans to wind down its European hedge funds business, while converting its U.S. hedge fund into one primarily managing internal money.

Credit Suisse, which has been an investor in York Capital since 2010, said on Tuesday it expected to take an impairment on York Capital in the fourth quarter, which would hit its key capital metric -- or common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio -- by roughly 7 basis points.

“The amount of the impairment taken will be assessed as part of our year-end process, but is currently expected to be approximately $450 million,” the bank said.

The impairment would not change its existing guidance for dividends and capital distributions in 2020 and 2021, Switzerland’s second-biggest bank said.

The Swiss bank, which placed an initial $425 million investment into York a decade ago, said it intended to maintain a continuing interest in York’s Asia-Pacific business, which it expects to be spun out as a new and separate hedge fund next year.

York’s new strategy will focus on longer-term assets such as private equity, private debt and collateralised loan obligations, Credit Suisse said.

[Derby]

https://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2020-11-24/espana-destruye-tejido-producito-desaparecen-100-000-empresas-12-meses_2845103/

España vuelve a destruir tejido productivo: desaparecen 100.000 empresas en 12 meses

La segunda ola del coronavirus ha provocado una recaída en el número de empresas activas. España todavía no ha recuperado ni un 40% del cierre de empresas producido por la crisis

(...) Esto significa que la crisis del coronavirus ha provocado la pérdida de casi el 7% de las empresas de España. Se trata de una destrucción de tejido productivo muy severa, tanto, que supone uno de los principales riesgos de España de cara a la recuperación económica. Durante las semanas de la desescalada, la reactivación de empresas fue muy intensa, hasta el punto de que hizo presagiar una rápida recuperación, como así ocurrió durante el verano. Sin embargo, la segunda ola del virus ha provocado otra fase de destrucción de tejido productivo que aumenta el riesgo de dejar daños estructurales.

[el malo]

https://www.reuters.com/article/britain-eu-assetmanagement/uk-will-remain-global-leader-for-asset-management-after-brexit-sunak-idUSL9N2HI00Z

UK will remain global leader for asset management after Brexit: Sunak
British finance minister Rishi Sunak said on Tuesday he was determined that the United Kingdom would remain a global leader for asset management after Brexit.

“We’re beginning a new relationship with the EU. And as we do so, we are determined that the UK will remain a global leader for asset management,” Sunak said in comments to a conference organised by The Investment Association, an industry group.

Los libros de autoayuda dicen que el primer paso para cumplir tus deseos es visualizarlo. Imagino que quiere decir imaginártelo, repertilo mil veces delante del espejo hasta que te convences a tí mismo y empiezas a convencer a los demás.

Nos queda un mes. Va a tener que repetirlo muuuchas veces delante del espejo.

[Maloserá]

Será por dinero. Tres cuartos de billón de Euros en depósitos a la vista y subiendo. Saldo vivo hipotecario 500,000 millones..  En otros prestamos mas o menos 250,000 millones. Que coincidencia. Y si contamos las acciones vamos a acabar teniendo que rescatar a los 'frugales'.

30% superior (a ojo) en proporción de propietarios comparando con Alemania (48% vs 78%) O sea cuando comparamos deuda de hogares hay que tener en cuenta que casi a un tercio más de alemanes no les estamos contando esa deuda por vivienda futura, y no es que vayan a dejar de 'consumir vivienda'. Que yo sepa el gasto futuro de alquiler no se computa en las estadísticas de deuda privada. Con lo que nuestra deuda privada es proporcionalmente menor, porque las hipotecas si están incluídas.

Estaba pensando si es que la deuda privada pasa a pública a través de los ERTES y pensiones y demás. La transustanciación.  Pero en el artículo del Pais, desde 2014 se han ahorrado 400,000 millones de euros en depósitos a la vista. La deuda publica ha aumentado en 280,000 millones.  Más frugales que la legendaria ama de casa de Swabia, vamos.

La pregunta ... esto significa que ya ha habido estrangulamiento fiscal, o que nos sobra el dinero? Las dos posibilidades son fascinantes.

https://www.idealista.com/news/finanzas/economia/2020/08/17/786681-las-familias-espanolas-cada-vez-menos-endeudadas-asi-ha-cambiado-el-peso-de-la-vivienda#:~:text=Seg%C3%BAn%20los%20datos%20del%20Banco,y%20cr%C3%A9ditos%20para%20otros%20fines.

https://datosmacro.expansion.com/deuda/espana

https://elpais.com/economia/2020-11-23/el-dinero-durmiente-de-la-crisis-tengo-mas-ahorros-que-nunca.html

[Derby]

La pregunta ... esto significa que ya ha habido estrangulamiento fiscal, o que nos sobra el dinero? Las dos posibilidades son fascinantes.

Totalmente de acuerdo: fascinante y, añado, para mí vertiginoso.  No apto para perfiles ansiosos 

https://www.reuters.com/article/eurozone-bonds/update-1-eu-launches-third-sure-bond-sale-euro-zone-yields-edge-up-idUSL1N2IA0KA

EU launches third SURE bond sale; euro zone yields edge up

Investors scrambled to buy the European Union’s latest bond to fund its SURE unemployment scheme on Tuesday, while reaction to Donald Trump giving the green-light for a new administration and weak business sentiment readings in the bloc was muted.

Initial orders for the 15-year social bond totalled more than 90 billion euros, or more than 10 times the 8.5 billion euros on offer. The deal will price later on Tuesday.

Christian Lenk, a strategist at DZ Bank in Frankfurt, said the deal was likely to be the last transaction from the European Union this year, with the EU unlikely to pre-fund large amounts, given its back-to-back principle in borrowing and lending, where the funds raised are tied to their disbursement schedule to member states.

The EU initially expected to raise around 30 billion euros for SURE this year but strong investor demand for its issues meant it had already exceeded that prior to Tuesday’s sale, which will bring the total to 39.5 billion euros.

In the broader market, higher-rated yields rose modestly, with Germany’s 10-year yield up 1 basis point to -0.57% after U.S. President Donald Trump’s go-ahead to proceed with a transition to President-Elect Joe Biden’s administration boosted risk assets at the expense of safe-haven bonds.

France’s daily coronavirus tally hitting its lowest since September and expectations that President Emmanuel Macron may later on Tuesday announce an easing of lockdown rules also helped risk sentiment.

Business morale in France dropped to a five-month low in November and fell for a second month in Germany, suggesting the euro zone’s largest economy will shrink in the fourth quarter.

DZ Bank’s Lenz noted that bond markets have been in a “wait and see mode” since recovering from a sell-off on optimism around Pfizer’s vaccine efficacy earlier in November, with little to drive them apart from expected stimulus from the European Central Bank in December.

A number of ECB board members are due to speak later on Tuesday, with President Christine Lagarde scheduled for 1400 GMT.

[Hynkel]

https://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2020-11-24/espana-destruye-tejido-producito-desaparecen-100-000-empresas-12-meses_2845103/

España vuelve a destruir tejido productivo: desaparecen 100.000 empresas en 12 meses

La segunda ola del coronavirus ha provocado una recaída en el número de empresas activas. España todavía no ha recuperado ni un 40% del cierre de empresas producido por la crisis

(...) Esto significa que la crisis del coronavirus ha provocado la pérdida de casi el 7% de las empresas de España. Se trata de una destrucción de tejido productivo muy severa, tanto, que supone uno de los principales riesgos de España de cara a la recuperación económica. Durante las semanas de la desescalada, la reactivación de empresas fue muy intensa, hasta el punto de que hizo presagiar una rápida recuperación, como así ocurrió durante el verano. Sin embargo, la segunda ola del virus ha provocado otra fase de destrucción de tejido productivo que aumenta el riesgo de dejar daños estructurales.

Todo esto ya se sabía que podía pasar. Se avisó en el mismo verano, y tampoco hacía falta la calculadora de Hello Kitty para saber que una segunda ola iba a hacer mucho daño a la economía.

Pero apenas se ha hecho nada. Ahora vamos con mascarillas, se hacen más tests, y poco más. El "plan" ahora es un calco del de primavera: encierros y cuando el virus haya aflojado volver a soltar al personal para que gaste. Este otoño el encierro no ha sido tan duro porque sabían que podían ahogar toda la economía, pero en el fondo se ha vuelto a hacer lo mismo.

Y pasada la Navidad, vuelta la burra al trigo. Anunciarán que la vacuna bajará del firmamento entre trompetas celestiales. Y si eso no ocurre, o sólo hay las suficientes vacunas para los grupos de riesgo y volvemos a tener otro verano como el último, ¿qué?

No salimos del plan "apretamos el culete, aguantamos, y cuando se pase volvemos a lo de siempre".

[Derby]

https://finanz.dk/europe-staves-off-mass-unemployment-but-needs-to-redeploy-workers/

Europe Staves Off Mass Unemployment But Needs To Redeploy Workers

The coronavirus pandemic is exacerbating the divide in Europe’s job market between skilled and unskilled workers, despite governments’ financial support preventing a repeat of the mass unemployment caused by the financial crisis a decade ago.

The bloc’s labour market has been largely shielded from the fallout of the pandemic by generous government and central bank stimulus, including furlough schemes that subsidised the wages of about 50m people who were put on reduced hours.

And the outlook has continued to brighten since the summer, despite a second wave of coronavirus infections and lockdowns, according to Consensus Economics, which averages economic forecasts of leading economists.

Employment in the bloc rose almost 1 per cent in the third quarter as many of those who left the workforce and were considered inactive when the pandemic hit returned to their old jobs or found new ones, according to Eurostat.

“This time around we are talking about huge fiscal recovery plans in Europe and that should be able to prevent a massive surge in unemployment,” said Stephano Scarpetta, director of employment, labour and social affairs at the OECD club of wealthy nations.

"Even if enough new jobs are created in the post-pandemic economy, they may not be equally accessible to everyone"

The number of adverts on jobs website Indeed fell sharply when the pandemic struck but has since partially recovered. For instance, job adverts in Italy were down 25 per cent from a year ago in November — compared with a shortfall of 43 per cent in June.

Across the eurozone, the unemployment rate this year is now expected to be 8.1 per cent, down from the 9.7 per cent forecast in May, according to Consensus Economics. That would leave this year’s unemployment level only a little higher than the 7.5 per cent of 2019.

But the overall improvement masks a considerable difference: in the first half of the year, there was a 7 per cent contraction in low skilled jobs in the eurozone, while the number of high skilled jobs grew 3 per cent, according to the European Central Bank



After this month’s vaccine breakthroughs, the challenge for policymakers is to keep supporting the labour market until an economic recovery takes hold, economists and policymakers said; people who lose their jobs still need retraining for new roles being created, because there is a mismatch between the jobs being created and those destroyed by the crisis.

Winners And Losers

Several companies have significant hiring plans in Europe — including logistics group DHL which is seeking to add 3,000 staff in the region, Volkswagen planning to recruit 2,000 people and Tesla looking to hire 12,000 workers for its new German factory.

At the same time, many companies are shedding staff. Airbus, the aerospace group, is cutting 15,000 workers. Danone, the maker of Evian bottled water and Activia yoghurts, this week announced 2,000 job cuts, while steelmaker Thyssenkrupp last week said it was cutting 5,000.

The pandemic has also hit airlines hard. Lufthansa put 80,000 of its 130,000 workers on furlough after receiving a €9bn state bailout. The 700 students at its pilot school in Bremen were recently told they would no longer have jobs when they graduate.

And some industries face structural change. While German carmakers are hiring staff to work on electric vehicles, they and their parts suppliers are also cutting tens of thousands of jobs involved in making internal combustion engines. IG Metall, the union, has estimated 300,000 jobs will be lost in Germany’s metal and electrical industries this year.

“Even if enough new jobs are created in the post-pandemic economy, they may not be equally accessible to everyone,” said Christine Lagarde, ECB president, in a speech last week.

That exacerbates the structural changes already confronting the European labour market. Increased automation in many industries across the world’s 26 largest economies is expected to destroy 85m jobs by 2025, but it will also create 97m new ones, leading to a net gain of 12m, according to a recent report by the World Economic Forum.

The challenge for policymakers is to help workers losing their jobs to learn new skills that allow them to shift into areas where there are vacancies, said Christoph Kahlenberg, head of labour market projects at the Randstad Academy in Eschborn.

“If you are an engineer at Airbus or VW who is in their 50s and you lose your job, it is hard to find a new one — you are not really suitable for Tesla,” he said.

For example, to boost the supply of IT specialists that VW needs for its €33bn push into electric vehicles, the carmaker has sponsored the construction of an offshoot of the coding school 42 near its Wolfsburg headquarters, which aims to train 600 students next year.

“You can use tons of artificial intelligence PhDs in the current climate, but what do you do with all the people on the production line? We need them too,” said Max Senges, head of the new Wolfsburg school. It will not require students to have any existing educational qualifications, only to take a logic test, in order to attract workers from less educated backgrounds who need to pick up coding and digital skills.



Economists are urging European governments to shift their focus from spending to prop up existing jobs to doing more to retrain and redeploy those in affected industries.

“It is important to switch from just protecting the status quo jobs to preventing an overall rise in unemployment,” said Katharina Utermöhl, economist at Allianz. “Giving companies hiring bonuses could incentivise them to create more jobs.”

Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, said: “It’s certainly the case that government support has helped to insulate the labour market from the worst effects of the pandemic.” But, he added “it’s too soon to say that governments have prevented a larger rise in unemployment”.

Precisamente esta pasada semana se presentaba en Barcelona, el primer grado en Inteligencia Artificial que se impartirá en la Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya en próximo curso 2020-2021 

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/sociedad/20201119/upc-nuevo-grado-catalunya-inteligencia-artificial-8211702

[Derby]

Blanco y en botella...

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2020/11/24/economia/1606221573_802794.html

Los titulados universitarios españoles sufren el doble de paro que sus homólogos europeos

Las preferencias de los españoles para elegir titulación no explican esta situación, según el Banco de España

(...)Para el Banco de España, si la distribución en la elección de las carreras universitarias fuese como la europea, el paro entre los jóvenes sería prácticamente el mismo, ya que la evidencia sugiere que el mayor desempleo entre los españoles no se debe a haber elegido titulaciones con menos oportunidades laborales que las del conjunto del área del euro.