PPCC. PIsitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2020

[siempretarde]

Esta tambien creo que merece su hueco, en el que paso en 2020 que de repente todo es como "diferente".

Transición Estructural / Re:PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2019
« Mensaje por PopArt en Septiembre 24, 2019, 10:36:49 am »
Me lo traigo del hilo de verano y añado eventos que considero de calidad a lo que inició Bendita Liquidez, sin ánimo de quitar hierro a los muy importantes mencionados por él mismo en su gran aportación:

- Miércoles, 7 de agosto de 2019: Jornada negra para los bonos (1), que marcan mínimos históricos
- Miércoles, 21 de agosto de 2019: Alemania emite bono a 30 años por primera vez a cupón cero, colocando sólo 824 de los 2 mil millones de euros ofertados, el ratio oferta-demanda más bajo desde 2011
- Lunes, 16 de septiembre de 2019: mayor subida diaria del petróleo desde 1991
- Martes, 17 de septiembre de 2019: el interés interbancario norteamericano tiene una subida récord y alcanza al 10%
- Miércoles, 18 de septiembre de 2019:la FED se ve obligada a abrir la ventanilla de repos por primera vez desde 2009
- Viernes, 20 de septiembre de 2019: Alemania aprueba una partida de gasto de 54 mil millones de euros hasta 2023 "para mitigar el cambio climático" (2)
- Lunes, 23 de septiembre de 2019: mayor quieba de una empresa turística de la historia (Thomas Cook)

Hay muchos más eventos de calidad reseñables, les animo a que completemos el timeline y vayamos refinándolo, dejando sólo lo más importante.

(1) El bono español a 30 años cae por primera vez por debajo del 1%, el de 10 años bate el record por abajo a 0.124%, y el bono alemán a 30 años bate su marca más baja hasta esa fecha, -0.147%. Otros bonos (US, Irlanda, Holanda, etc.) marcaron mínimo histórico en la misma sesión, en respuesta a una bajada de tipos de 50 puntos básicos del Banco de Nueva Zelanda y otras acciones de India y malos datos PMI en Europa

Links:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-bonds/unstoppable-german-bond-yields-slide-to-new-record-lows-idUSKCN1UX0O3
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/treasury-30-year-yield-closes-in-on-all-time-low-as-risks-grow
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/30-year-bond-yield

(2) La partida se conisderó insuficiente por toda la prensa y por los miles de manifestantes ecológico-apocalípticos que se concentraron en las calles (Fridays for Future). Se introducirán por primera vez en 2021 certificados de emisiones para el transporte a 10 €/tn emitida, y reconocen que no cumplirán el objetivo de reducción de emisiones a nivel país marcado para 2020, y probablemente tampoco el objetivo de 2025. Se prevé que las medidas impacten en los precios de los vuelos, que pueden encarecerse, mientras que los trayectos en ferrocarril se van a abaratar debido a bajadas de IVA de largo recorrido, y se invertirá en infraestructuras férreas hasta 2030

Link:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/20/world/europe/germany-climate-protection-merkel.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49767649

https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2540.msg187632#msg187632

https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2020/11/draft-deal-proposes-cutting-eu-carbon-emissions-by-55-per-cent-by-2030/

Draft deal proposes cutting EU carbon emissions by 55 per cent by 2030
The EU has reportedly drafted a deal for its members to cut greenhouse gases by 55 per cent against 1990 levels by 2030 that will be put forth at a summit next month.


It is hoped that the draft conclusions, seen by Reuters, will be endorsed by the 27 member countries when they meet on December 10-11.

The European Commission is apparently keen to institute the new rules as it does not believe the continent will be able to stick to pledges to hit net zero carbon by 2050 without them.

With the UK having already left the bloc, it will not be subject to the new rules. Although it has made similar commitments to reach net zero by 2050 it is currently far from being on course to reach its target.

The UN climate science panel has said in the past that net zero carbon dioxide emissions need to be achieved globally by 2050 in order to keep temperature rises below 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial times this century.

According to Reuters, the document it has seen will push for the 2030 target to be delivered “collectively” by EU countries.

This could help some states to overcome fears about the economic impact that such measures may have, such as the Czech Republic which has been unwilling to commit to such a target individually but has a softer stance if the ruling is adhered to by the bloc as a whole.

Poland, which has an economy heavily dependent on high-carbon coal, has also been sceptical over enhanced climate targets.

Last month, the EU Commission said it would not block the development of more nuclear power stations in Europe, although it warned about the vast cost of building, running and decommissioning them.

But while the centralised power facilities of member states are an easy target for decarbonisation, heavily polluting transport sectors are much more difficult to tackle.

A recent report found that the lack of available charging points around the EU is one of the factors holding the continent back from mass adoption of electric cars.

[Derby]

https://www.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/2020/12/16/more-evidence-of-stagflation-in-the-pmis/

More Evidence of Stagflation in the PMIs

Markit’s preliminary December PMIs were released today and our takeaway is that they show the risk of some kind of stagflation is gaining a little steam. In both the manufacturing and services surveys, new business/new orders dropped while input prices rose. In the case of the services PMI, input prices rose to the highest on record for the second straight month. In the manufacturing survey, input prices rose to the highest level since mid-2018, just after the tax deal was inked. When such divergences persisted in the past it was prices that caught down to business activity. Will it be so this time around, or will prices continue to increase regardless? Currently, the bond market is voting on the latter scenario, which is why we continue to keep our eye on breakeven inflation expectations.

[Derby]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/20/uk-faces-brexit-limbo-after-talks-deadline-missed

UK faces Brexit limbo after talks deadline missed

Britain risks weeks without trade transition plans from 1 January after missing EU parliament Sunday deadline

Negotiators of a Brexit trade deal inched towards a compromise on fishing rights on Sunday but missed a major deadline, raising the prospect of weeks without arrangements from 1 January even in the event of agreement.

The teams led by the chief UK negotiator, David Frost, and his EU counterpart, Michel Barnier, were expected to continue talks on Monday despite the European parliament’s notice that it would not vote on a deal if not secured by midnight on Sunday.

A UK government source said: “Teams have been negotiating throughout the day and expect to continue tomorrow. Talks remain difficult and significant differences remain. We continue to explore every route to a deal that is in line with the fundamental principles we brought into the negotiations.”

Frost met Barnier on Sunday afternoon to discuss the latest EU proposals on fisheries, with the UK side posing a series of questions to be answered on Monday, raising some hope of progress.

The UK health secretary, Matt Hancock, said the talks had been derailed in recent days after the EU “put in some unreasonable demands” on fisheries, but that he was still hopeful of an agreement before Christmas. “I’m sure that a deal can be done, but obviously it needs movement on the EU side,” he said.

The failure to meet the European parliament’s deadline means that ministers on the EU council representing the bloc’s capitals may need to “provisionally apply” a deal on 1 January to avoid a no-deal exit until parliament votes later in the month.

If the talks go much deeper into December, however, there may not be time for the EU capitals to translate and scrutinise the agreed text, leaving the UK to leave the transition period without new trade and security arrangements with Brussels.

Contingency measures would have to be agreed to bridge the gap before a deal could come into force, but such a scenario raises the danger of ports and security services being left in legal limbo.

Bernd Lange, the German chair of the parliament’s trade committee, the key body in the chamber’s ratification process, tweeted: “The consequence of no deal tonight is obvious: the [European parliament] does not know the consolidated text, is not in a position to scrutinise before the end of the transition period. So make preparations now for a no-deal period and agree emergency measures with UK.”

A major sticking point in the talks remains the EU’s demand to be able to apply tariffs or entirely block the entry of British goods in the event of the government closing off access to UK seas after a transition period to phase in new fishing arrangements for European vessels.

Under the British proposal, Boris Johnson insists that UK-flagged vessels have exclusive access to the six-to-12 nautical mile zone off the British coast, fished for centuries by French and Belgian vessels. Such a move would lead to some British exports being kept out of its biggest market under the proposal Brussels has tabled.

Barnier tweeted: “In this crucial moment for the negotiations, we continue to work hard with David Frost and his team.

“The EU remains committed to a fair, reciprocal & balanced agreement. We respect the sovereignty of the UK. And we expect the same.

“Both EU and the UK must have the right to set their own laws & control their own waters. And we should both be able to act when our interests are at stake.”

His comments indicate that there has been some movement on the issue, with both sides able to take measures should their interests be threatened, but UK sources downplayed any suggestion of a breakthrough.

The exhausted British team in the UK mission to the EU, many of whom have been away from home for the last two weeks, were served mince pies and mulled wine, delivered from the British ambassador’s residence as they worked through Sunday.

Clément Beaune, France’s European affairs minister, said he believed a deal with the UK remained doable.

“We have given ourselves a few more days because we think that an agreement is still possible,” he said. “It’s hard, not sure, but worth a try. More than an agreement, we want a good agreement, in particular preserving fishing and fair conditions of competition. The negotiations should be concluded in the next few days. We know where our red lines are and what interests we don’t want to sacrifice.”

All the political groups in the European parliament apart from the Greens had agreed on the Sunday night deadline for a deal.

Philippe Lamberts, the co-leader of the Greens, said: “The position that we defend is that negotiators should be allowed to work until the last minute, and simply give us time in January and February to scrutinise and ratify any deal. I’m watching quite gleefully, I must say, because I was quite angry at my colleagues and now they will look stupid.”

[pedrito]

Reino Unido se prepara para su 'semana negra' ante una nueva cepa "fuera de control"

https://www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/europa/2020-12-20/inglaterra-prepara-semana-negra-nueva-cepa-virus-fuera-control_2880111/

Curioso, curioso...

A horas de un brexit sin control, aparece una nueva cepa "fuera de control"...y precisamente en Inglaterra. Con lo grande que es el mundo, con cinco continentes, cientos de paises, con el virus esparcido por todo el mundoo, y el virus ese tiene que mutar justo en Inglaterra.

¿será que algunos se están aficionando más de la cuenta a las semanas negras sin control?

[Derby]

Se está montando la marimorena en UK...

Reino Unido se prepara para su 'semana negra' ante una nueva cepa "fuera de control"

https://www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/europa/2020-12-20/inglaterra-prepara-semana-negra-nueva-cepa-virus-fuera-control_2880111/

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55389505

Covid-19: Dover port halts exports to France for 48 hours

France will stop lorry movements from the UK for 48 hours in the wake of fresh concerns over the spread of a new strain of coronavirus in the UK.

[sudden and sharp]

Y qué me decis de esto:


Araceli de Frutos: “Veremos caídas en Bolsa por la nueva paralización de la economía”
https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2020/12/18/mercados/1608290371_027322.html
La experta anticipa retrocesos en la renta variable una vez se comprueben los efectos del actual confinamiento en Europa: “La vacuna no es una varita mágica”; sitúa el peso de España en su cartera en solo cuatro valores: Inditex, Iberdrola, Rovi y Cellnex


...pues claro, mujer, cómo iba a ser por precios en máximos ridículos...

[Derby]

https://www.businessinsider.com/congressional-leaders-900-billion-stimulus-deal-checks-unemployment-2020-12

Congressional leaders strike a long-awaited stimulus deal: $600 checks and $300 federal weekly unemployment benefits for Americans

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

Reino Unido se prepara para su 'semana negra' ante una nueva cepa "fuera de control"

https://www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/europa/2020-12-20/inglaterra-prepara-semana-negra-nueva-cepa-virus-fuera-control_2880111/

Curioso, curioso...

A horas de un brexit sin control, aparece una nueva cepa "fuera de control"...y precisamente en Inglaterra. Con lo grande que es el mundo, con cinco continentes, cientos de paises, con el virus esparcido por todo el mundoo, y el virus ese tiene que mutar justo en Inglaterra.

¿será que algunos se están aficionando más de la cuenta a las semanas negras sin control?

Si la nueva cepa apareciera en...
- Alemania
- Francia
- España
- ...

... su cerebro crearía una narrativa "lógica" como que
- es para forzar ciertos pactos ante la retirada de Merkel como Canciller en 2021
- es por la política de paños calientes de Macron con los chalecos amarillos
- es para poner contra las cuerdas al gobierno PSOE-UP, forzando la salida de los segundos

[berberecho]

Reino Unido se prepara para su 'semana negra' ante una nueva cepa "fuera de control"

https://www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/europa/2020-12-20/inglaterra-prepara-semana-negra-nueva-cepa-virus-fuera-control_2880111/

Curioso, curioso...

A horas de un brexit sin control, aparece una nueva cepa "fuera de control"...y precisamente en Inglaterra. Con lo grande que es el mundo, con cinco continentes, cientos de paises, con el virus esparcido por todo el mundoo, y el virus ese tiene que mutar justo en Inglaterra.

¿será que algunos se están aficionando más de la cuenta a las semanas negras sin control?

Si la nueva cepa apareciera en...
- Alemania
- Francia
- España
- ...

... su cerebro crearía una narrativa "lógica" como que
- es para forzar ciertos pactos ante la retirada de Merkel como Canciller en 2021
- es por la política de paños calientes de Macron con los chalecos amarillos
- es para poner contra las cuerdas al gobierno PSOE-UP, forzando la salida de los segundos

Lo cual sería perfectamente plausible. Hay que estar ciego para no ver lo bien que están "aprovechando" al virus. Lo que podría llegar a tragar la gente es inimaginable, cada día lo veo más claro. Hace tiempo que se abandonó el razonamiento lógico. Muchísima gente, inteligente por otro lado, me dice que "hay que hacer lo que nos digan, no tenemos otra porque no sabemos". Yo creo que eso es lo cómodo, pero no lo correcto. Al menos analizar y preguntarse qué pasa, en función de lo que se ve. Las casualidades en esta vida no existen.

[sudden and sharp]

Cierro hilo... Winter has come.






[Seguid en el nuevo.]