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Home Sales Hit All-Time Records In Many Canadian Cities Amid Holiday Shutdowns"All it needed was a pandemic."With malls closed over the holidays in many places due to the pandemic, it seems Canadians went shopping for houses instead.Home sales in December ― typically a dead zone for real estate transactions ― hit all-time highs in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, the cities’ real estate boards reported this week.“A strong economic rebound in many sectors of the economy, ultra-low borrowing costs and the enhanced use of technology for virtual open houses and showings fuelled and sustained the housing market recovery,” Toronto Regional Real Estate Board president Lisa Patel said in a statement.The average selling price for a home in Greater Toronto was 11.2 per cent higher this December than a year ago, having jumped nearly $100,000 in a year to $932,222. The 7,180 homes sold last month amounted to a 64.5-per-cent increase from the previous December.In the suburban 905 region, the average selling price increased by a stunning $145,000 in the space of a year, reaching $955,086. It was a similar story in Vancouver, where home sales hit a record high for December, though price growth was softer than Toronto, with the benchmark price of $1.047 million up 5.4 per cent in a year.“All it needed was a pandemic,” quipped Bank of Montreal economist Robert Kavcic in a client note on Vancouver real estate.Kavcic noted that Vancouver experienced years of slumping home sales amid high prices, but in 2020 sales were up 22.1 per cent compared to the year before.“Who knew that the pandemic would be medicine for this market?” he asked.Calgary, which has been hit hard by the oil slump, saw home sales jump 40 per cent from a year earlier to hit their highest December level since 2007, the local real estate board reported.Condo markets go in opposite directionGreater Montreal recorded an all-time high volume of home sales, up 32 per cent from a year earlier, but its real estate board noted that the region is seeing “an increase in condominium listings that far exceeds the number of condo sales on the Island of Montreal.”While condo prices are still on the rise in Montreal, up 14 per cent in a year, they’re growing more slowly than detached homes, which jumped 22 per cent in the past year.Increasing supply is often a sign of falling prices ahead, which is what the City of Toronto is now seeing. The average price of a condo in Toronto is down 4.6 per cent in a year, to $625,828, even as detached homes jumped 17.7 per cent, to $1.24 million.“There was a dichotomy between the single-family market segments and the condominium apartment segment,” said Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief market analyst. Buyers are competing for detached homes that are in short supply, while new condo listings are outstripping demand, giving condo buyers more options, Mercer said, which pushed condo prices down in the last months of 2020.“The next 12 months will be critical as we chart our path through recovery. In particular, the impact of resumption in immigration and the re-opening of the economy will be key,” Mercer added.
Brazo derecho: ladrillos negrosBrazo izquierdo: ladrillos blancos
Some Bad Words About the Riskiness of EquitiesAt some stage the bond bull market will crack. There will be trouble if equity and debt prices start moving in the same direction.(...) Last year the U.S. central bank went all in by buying corporate bonds, thereby cutting corporate borrowing spreads. Despite a pandemic and an especially nasty recession, risky financial assets boomed. Flows into equity ETFs smashed records. So did issuance of investment-grade and high-yield debt. Globally, investment-grade companies issued about $4.8 trillion of debt, of which $2.5 trillion was in the U.S. Junk-bond issuers borrowed $432 billion in the U.S. alone, one of the busiest years ever for this market.Finding someone with a bad word to say about risk in general, or equities in particular, is about as easy as it was finding someone with a good word in the late 1970s. Following are some bad words.The first problem, albeit a short-term one, is investor positioning. Everyone has the same view and the same positions. Regardless of their longer-term performance this is a fairly common problem at the start of a year, irrespective of asset classes. That’s why those with a few grey hairs and a little perspective do very little at the beginning of the year. In 2021, though, the consensus is even more remarkable.The second problem is valuation. Take equities. If you bung a low bond yield into a standard dividend-discount model and leave everything else unchanged you’d end up with very cheap valuations. But this is wrongheaded. Investors should also cut their growth assumptions. They don’t, of course, but that doesn’t really matter because such models aren’t any good in the long run at predicting returns. I know this because I had them tested when I was working at Rubicon Fund Management.The best models — those that are mean-reverting and which have provided a good guide to long-run returns over more than 100 years — show equities are very expensive indeed. So is corporate debt. Buying investment-grade and junk bonds was a fantastic thing to do in early 2009 and I went hoarse saying so at the time. In early 2009, BBB bonds yielded something like 9.5% and junk bonds about 20%. Now junk bonds yield about 4.5% and BBB bonds a smidgeon over 2%. Though they’ve never yielded less, investors are buying them as though they’re about to go out of fashion. I strongly suspect they will.The third problem is that the Fed has already unleashed a huge short-term speculative wave with its actions. We already know that the central bank is about as likely to apply what we might dub the McChesney doctrine as Donald Trump is to admit he got something wrong. That’s why rate expectations and bond yields are already on the floor. They might go down a bit but they’re more likely to go up a lot at some time. You shouldn’t buy one asset on the basis that another asset yields nothing, because at some stage that other asset will start yielding something. It’s simply that bond valuations are more extreme right now.Which is where we get to the fourth problem. I think inflation is about to pick up sharply, especially in the U.S., a problem compounded by the falling dollar. Suffice to say that investors have bought high-quality bonds for two reasons. The first is that prices have gone up over the past 40 years or so. The second is that they’ve diversified risky assets. The two things aren’t the same. Two perfectly uncorrelated assets can end up at the same point. Correlation simply tells you how they got there.At some stage, I suspect sooner rather than later, the bond bull market will crack and over time bond yields will head higher. Bad enough, for sure, given how much speculation in equity markets has drawn succor from bond yields and rates of as close to nothing as makes no difference. Worse, though, is if correlations were to flip positive, with equity and bond prices moving in the same direction. Pretty much every risk-management system used by institutional investors would force huge selling of both bonds and equities.Such a correlation flip may not happen now, but given the expensiveness of both asset classes it’s a much bigger risk than almost anyone realizes. The research department of the Bank for International Settlements, roughly the central banks’ central bank, has said long and loud that central banks can’t target both inflation and financial stability. I think this year we’ll find out how true this is.
— por culpa del exceso regulatorio, los bancos no estarían prestando suficiente a 'los negocios' (sic, como si los bancos no lo fueran también); como sabemos desde hace una década, esta es la principal tesis falsoliberal-neoliberal antisistema, pilar del 'bexitrumprocesismo' y, en España, piedra angular del Pensamiento Vox; la realidad 'oficial' bancocentralista es que los bancos no prestan porque no pueden dado su Balance concreto y particular de cada entidad en cuestión o porque, no olvidemos nunca, los tipos de interés tienen solo dos tramos: inflación y riesgo; y, al no haber inflación, no hay forma de corregir ['disimular', esto lo digo yo.] sin dar pérdidas contables una mala evaluación del riesgo, lo que extrema su habitual conservadurismo; aparte de ello, el modelo popularcapitalista y su extracción 'aproductiva' de rentas ha hecho que prácticamente ningú negocio, salvo excepciones, sea suficientemente rentable para justificar la exuberancia financiera, tan necesaria para mantener los supersalarios de sus trabajadores-directivos y los precios extravagantes de sus carteras de Bolsa e inmuebles; en este sentido, estaríamos ante un canto de cisne previo a la funcionarización de las cúpulas directivas de la banca—;
A alguno se le va a quedar una cara de gilipollas...Roma no paga traidores.https://www.foxnews.com/politics/capitol-rioters-prison-trump-executive-order-federalCapitol rioters could face up to 10 years in prison under Trump monument executive order. Federal law enforcement officials are investigating and will bring charges against rioters[...]
Nuevo colapso en el SEPE con 300.000 ERTE sin pagar y una sobrecarga del 300%Desde el Ministerio lo niegan, y afirman que las solicitudes colectivas se están reconociendo sin ningún tipo de problema en cada provincia para las personas que han agotado su prestaciónEl incremento de contagios de coronavirus tras las fiestas navideñas y una previsible tercera ola está provocando un nuevo colapso en el Servicio Público de Empleo Estatal (SEPE).En concreto, el sistema de política de empleo avisa de que existen aún 300.000 Expedientes de Regulación de Empleo Temporal (ERTE) sin pagar y un 300% de sobrecarga en la plantilla, según 'La Razón'.Además, habría medio millón de expedientes con errores y los refuerzos son solo un parche para tapar agujeros, sin ofrecer ninguna solución.Tras las destacadas fechas, las comunidades autónomas están endureciendo las medidas y anunciando nuevas restricciones para tratar de frenar la tercera ola.Esto está ocasionando, de nuevo, un notable bloqueo en las oficinas de Empleo, que se une a los retrasos que se acumulan desde octubre.De esta manera, miles de trabajadores que se encuentran bajo ERTE no han cobrado los últimos meses. En especial, los que corresponden a solicitudes colectivas.Desde el Ministerio lo nieganDesde el Ministerio, sin embargo, lo niegan, y afirman que las solicitudes colectivas se están reconociendo sin ningún tipo de problema en cada provincia para las personas que han agotado su prestación.Según el Gobierno, ha supuesto un lógico aumento de la demanda, pero no hay retrasos destacados. Algo que, desde CSIF, el sindicato mayoritario de la Administración y del SEPE, no es así. Denuncian que la carga de trabajo está un 300% por encima de lo habitual.
No es un evento de calidad, pero me produce el mismo efecto.Tras 10 incansables años y más de 850 artículos monotemáticos animando a compradores indecisos, el penúltimo de los cuales titulado "La covid llena el mercado de casas heredadas (y sus nuevos dueños aceptan descuentos)", Sandra López Letón cambia de tercio en "El País" y pasa a informar sobre negocios potencialmente más rentables:https://elpais.com/economia/2021-01-07/el-gran-negocio-de-vender-orgasmos.htmlHistórico (35 páginas):https://elpais.com/autor/sandra-lopez-leton/
En UK yo veo éste problema clarísimo. A las madres solteras no les hacen falta 'hombres'.
The Sperm Kings Have a Problem: Too Much Demand
U.K. House Prices Climb to Record as Tax Cut Stokes MarketU.K. house prices rose to a record high last month as a government incentive to buy and a desire to move out of big cities boosted demand. Prices rose 6% from a year earlier in December to an average 253,374 pounds ($340,000), mortgage lender Halifax said Friday. On the month alone, they gained 0.2%.